Game 29, Mariners at Red Sox
LHP Moyer v RHP Clement , 4:05 on FSN.
This is going to be a reaaaaal interesting couple of weeks for this team. Can Don Baylor get Beltre to lay off that pitch? Will the Mariners be the tonic the Yankees need, or will the boys in blue take advantage of New York’s woes to rebound? Or, for even more interesting flavor, will the both offenses feast? Will Jeff Nelson get in trouble in Fenway again, and will he come home from NY or be traded to the Yankees while we’re there?
Also, if you have the chance, again I highly recommend heading down to Tacoma to go see King Felix pitch at 6:05 (as detailed in this fine post). See him and Doyle and a host of others (but not Leone, who I hear is injured again).
Week #5 in Review
Happy Seis de Mayo!
Vital Signs
As of today the Mariners are 12-16, sitting in last place of the AL West and five games back of the first-place Angels. They’ve scored 114 runs (3rd in the division and 11th in the league). Stop me if you’ve heard this before. They’ve hit 17 home runs (last in both division and league, 2 fewer than the A’s and more than half less than the Orioles’ 40). They have drawn 86 walks (3rd in division; 7th in league, and just as close to last as to 4th in league). Their EqA is .243 (11th in league, and just .002 better than last place Kansas City). But as Dave brought up earlier this week, the Mariners have faced the stiffest pitching of any team in the league over the first four weeks.
Defensivley, the Mariners have allowed 119 runs (2nd in division; 5th in AL). The gloves are gobbling 72.5% of balls in play into outs (2nd in AL). That’s just outstanding.
And again, their record accurately reflects their offensive and defensive contributions.
Not a good week in Marinerland. Not at all. The M’s have hit (no pun intended) a five-game losing skid versus division-mates Oakland and Anaheim. The culprit? How about the offense that slapped .237/.296/.333, had just 12 extra-base hits in 208 at bats and scored 15 runs over 6 games. They haven’t scored any more than 5 runs in a game since Tuesday April 26. And while the case has been made for quality of pitching the Mariners have faced, the five pitchers notching “wins” against the M’s this week include Keiichi Yabu, the pitcher formerly known as Barry Zito, Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey and Paul Byrd.
Heroes
Hmmm… uh… eeny, meeny, miney… Randy Winn? He went 11-for-20 (.550/.640/.700) with 3 doubles and 5 walks. He was the only regular to reach base more than a third of the time. He also contributed a stolen base.
Then there’s the bullpen corps of Jeff Nelson, Shigs Hasegawa, Julio Mateo and Matt Thornton. They combined for 11.1 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 hits, walking 4 and striking out 5.
Not-so-much Heroes
While Winn made only 9 outs for the week, Adrian Beltre made 23, swinging 4-for-27 (.148/.148/.185). Then there’s Miguel Olivo who went hitless in 14 plate appearances, striking in almost half of those.
Following his strongest start of the season, Jamie Moyer was beaten and bruised an Oakland offense that’s struggled to score runs this season. He couldn’t finished the fourth inning and surrendered 10 hits leading to 5 runs. His ERA jumped a full run. The law of averages catches everyone.
Coming to a Stadium Near You
Next up are visits to Fenway and the Bronx. It’s less menacing than it sounds. Pedro Martinez no longer wears red socks. Boston sends Matt Clement, Jeremi Gonzalez and Wade Miller in his 2005 debut. Boston’s offense is third in the league in runs scored, just 3 behind league-leading Texas. Meanwhile, their pitching is middle of the pack.
It just might be that the cure for this anemic offense is a trip to the Big Apple. Only the Devil Rays have surrendered more runs than the Yankees’ pitchers. However, the matchup to watch will be Monday, as Randy Johnson takes the mound. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m thinking this is the Big Unit’s first start against the Mariners. Then again, the Yankees’ offense is every bit as potent as Boston’s.
Unfortuantely, due to time constraints and the fact I’m week away from finals, that’s all I got today.
Go see Felix Friday
Friday the Tacoma Rainiers host the Salt Lake Somethings at 6:05. The Mariners are out of town, why not go see the future of the team?
Two reasons to go to that particular game:
- King Felix starts
- Fireworks night
If I didn’t have to hang around here until it’ll be impossible to get through traffic and make it to Cheney, I’d go.
As always, if you can’t go, I encourage you to listen to Mike Curto do another fine broadcasting job via the Internet or on Fox Sports Radio 850 AM.
Kids’ Baseball Books For Mom’s Day
A college fiction professor of mine was fond of saying that there are really only two stories: someone takes a journey, or a stranger comes to town.
This may explain why I love children’s books. Writing for a younger audience forces authors to strip down narratives to the few essential themes that resonate with all people: be kind to others. Don’t judge on appearances. Always try to learn, try to never hold grudges. Adding to the emotional poignance of these teachings is the fact that we adults seemingly can’t keep them straight ourselves.
When I was working at a local public library, I’d hide and read the kids’ books I was supposed to be shelving. That’s how much a mark I am for the genre. Books aiming at the diaper demographic won’t replace Mody Dick, but quality is quality in my eyes.
Earlier this week, the Wisconsin State Journal listed favorite baseball books for kids. Since Mother’s Day is this weekend, maybe the list will give you an idea for the mom in your life who loves the national pastime, wide-eyed poppets, reading to said youngsters or all of the above.
Two books that I recommend — and just bought for my nieces — have the advantage of regional ties. “Baseball Saved Us” is by Ken Mochizuki, who was raised in Seattle, and you can probably guess what makes “Dear Ichiro” by Jean Davies Okimoto of local interest.
At the same reading level, 4-8 years, are the Journal’s picks: “Luke Goes to Bat” by Rachel Isadora and “Mudball” by Matt Tavares. For a bit older kids, there’s “Roberto Clemente: Pride of the Pittsburgh Pirates” by Jonah Winter (5-10) and “Out Standing in My Field” by Patrick Jennings (8-12). Haven’t read any of these, but wanted to link to them: descriptions are available at the first link.
In Babe Ruth’s farewell to baseball speech, he said this: “You know this baseball game of ours comes up from the youth … [y]ou’ve gotta start from way down [at] the bottom, when you’re six or seven years of age. You can’t wait until you’re fifteen or sixteen. You gotta let it grow up with you.”
It’s the same with reading. Considering how much time I spend devouring things that begin with “http,” I figure anything we can do to bring up the next generation as readers is solid. Buy a baseball book for a mom and kid pair that you care about.
Wilson down, Wiki up
Dan Wilson tore the ACL in his right knee and will be placed on the 60-day DL. Wiki Gonzalez, so-called “Laziest Man in Baseball” will be called up to take his roster spot. No estimates on how long Wilson might be out (months? the season?) yet, we’ll know more as he goes out and sees doctors, etc.
Wiki’s MLB line: .238/.312/.361
In Tacoma, 2004: .308/.333/.692 (in a few games before he went down with injury for the year)
This year: .271/.328/.441 (btw, Leone — .270/.410/.492, Doyle .446/.515/.732)(!!)
His PECOTA weighted mean forecast was .234/.310/.378
Wiki also becomes the answer to my ongoing “which Mariner on the current 25-man roster last pitched in a game that counted in the standings” as he pitched a scoreless inning for San Diego in 2003.
So what’s this mean for the team?
Not a lot. Having a backup catcher who can’t hit and doesn’t play a lot of defense isn’t much different than what we have now, as painful as that is to type, it’s only a matter of degree. I’d much rather have Wilson than Wiki as a backup, but Hargrove’s been running a 2:1 Olivo:Wilson ratio. So figure over two months, Wiki gets into twenty games (and probably less) — the drop off between the two is not going to make much of an impact.
Perspective, Patience, Persistence
I am in a slump.
There’s no way around it. My post quantity is down, the word counts are lacking. Jokes that used to flow like ouzo at Socrates’ parties suddenly went as dry as a Steve Kelley column.
Worse, I’m a relative newcomer to USSM, so my dry spell left me whipsawed with regret about the impression I was making in my new surroundings. The last thing I want is to start off in a funk.
So I thought I’d walk around USS Mariner Labs seeking counsel, starting with Dave. Here’s what he said:* Read more
Game 28, Angels at Mariners
RHP Byrd v RHP Sele. 3:35, no TV, radio only.
Over/under on HR: 3.5. I’d take the over.
Transactions today, from MLB.com:
Optioned OF Shin-Soo Choo to Triple-A Tacoma; Transferred INF Pokey Reese from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disable list; Selected contract of INF Dave Hansen from Triple-A Tacoma.
M’s v LHP: .204/.263/.290
M’s v RHP: .265/.335/.386
If I was facing the Mariners, I would call up any random left-handed starter in AAA to face this team.
Or, if you’re really looking for the cause of the team’s problems:
#1 .339/.393/.482 (Ichiro!)
#2 .265/.364/.353 (!?)
#3 .227/.265/.318
#4 .219/.348/.510 (no, really)
#5 .255/.300/.382
#6 .281/.373/.385
#7 .223/.299/.266
#8 .204/.250/.286
#9 .200/.214/.232
This is going to be a looooooong May. If we get out of this month within shouting distance of .500 I’ll be happy.
[update: Jeff’s convinced me to open comments. Be good.]
No comments today: it’s been a terrible couple of days for USSM commenting, and I don’t have the energy or availability to police another thread. If another of my compadres does, they’ll swing by and allow comments (and edit this, presumably). If you want to express outrage, etc over this, you can go ahead and email us.
Public humiliation: priceless
The River City Rascals aren’t selling out: they’re buying in. Or rather, they hope you are buying in.
That’s right, in this eBay auction, you can purchase a one-day contract to play independent league baseball. At this writing, it’ll cost you just over two grand to bat and play right field for a small hunk of game.
What does this guarantee you, save a lighter wallet, an oh-fer and an E-9 or two? The enmity of your teammates, most probably, and possibly some chin music from a bitter indy league pitcher. Remember, Bobby Madritsch came from the independents — imagine his reaction to “the guy who bought his way in.”
My lawyer buddy told me he wants to do something like this. With visions of a Mads clone dancing in my head, I told him, “no you don’t. That is, unless you’re a fine plaintiff’s attorney and they don’t make you sign a waiver.”
Not dead
I’m not dead. Really. We’ve actually been here for about a week now — we arrived last Monday, got the keys to our place Tuesday and our stuff showed up Wednesday — but are so far without the DSL Verizon promised us. Depending on who you talk to, we’ll either get it May 10th or… never. The latter situation according to the technition I tracked down yesterday, who said there isn’t even DSL running to our development and that they never should have let us order it in the first place. So… it’s looking like cable. In the meantime, I’m on a 45-minute limit computer here at the Arlington branch of the Poughkeepsie Public Library System.
Quick trip summary: Seattle WA to Yakima WA; Yakima WA to Hope ID; Hope ID to Billings MT; Billings MT to Rapid City SD; Rapid City SD to Mitchell SD; Mitchell SD to Minneapolis MN; Minneapolis MN to Milwaukee WI; Milwaukee WI to Chicago IL; Chicago IL to Cleveland OH; Cleveland OH to Philadelphia PA; Philadelphia PA to Pleasant Valley NY. (I’m doing that from memory, so it might not be 100% accurate, but I think it is.) Approximately 3,350 miles all told. We saw Little Bighorn Battlefield in Montana, Mount Rushmore in South Dakota, The Mall of America in Minneapolis, Shedd Aquarium in Chicago, The Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, ate pizza in Chicago and cheese steaks in Philly. We also stopped at more travel plazas, ate more fast food and paid more tolls than I care to for the rest of my life.
In any event, I hope to be back up and running in the next week or so. School starts next Monday and I’ll try to get an update on that blog, too.
Competition
So, yesterday, I’m having another conversation about the M’s with one of the two scouts I quoted during last week’s post on Miguel Olivo, and he made an interesting assertion. We were talking about the offensive struggles of the M’s, and he noted that seemingly every time he looked at a box score, we were getting shut down by one all-star hurler or the next. Santana, Radke, Harden, Sabathia, Buehrle, etc… He thought that we’d faced better pitchers than the rest of the league, and it was making the M’s offense look worse than it really is.
Thanks to one of the many reports available at Baseball Prospectus, I realized I could actually verify if this was true or not. BP has a batter’s quality of pitcher’s faced report which estimates, well, exactly what it says; the quality of the pitchers the batter has had to face to date.
The American League average is .260/.325/.404, or a .729 OPS. If the M’s really have faced tougher pitching than average, you would expect that to show up team wide. I was expecting to find evidence to refute my friend’s claim. Well, here’s the table:
NAME TEAM PA AVG OBP SLG OPS Ichiro Suzuki SEA 122 0.237 0.310 0.349 0.659 Adrian Beltre SEA 114 0.240 0.314 0.352 0.666 Randy Winn SEA 113 0.234 0.311 0.349 0.660 Bret Boone SEA 111 0.241 0.318 0.362 0.680 Raul Ibanez SEA 110 0.238 0.315 0.358 0.673 Jeremy Reed SEA 103 0.239 0.315 0.352 0.667 Richie Sexson SEA 102 0.244 0.323 0.361 0.684 Wilson Valdez SEA 84 0.236 0.313 0.348 0.661 Miguel Olivo SEA 70 0.238 0.315 0.348 0.663 Dan Wilson SEA 25 0.255 0.332 0.383 0.715 W. Bloomquist SEA 21 0.229 0.294 0.345 0.639 Scott Spiezio SEA 15 0.211 0.281 0.313 0.594 Greg Dobbs SEA 14 0.200 0.271 0.294 0.565 Shin-Soo Choo SEA 3 0.185 0.293 0.300 0.593
He’s right. Not one single Mariner hitter has faced pitching that would even be considered “below average” to date. Collectively, the pitchers the M’s have faced have been the equivalent of Roy Oswalt. Or, last year’s Jake Peavy or Curt Schilling. In fact, the M’s have faced the toughest pitching in baseball this year. It’s not even really that close, honestly.
This will almost certainly come closer to regressing to the mean as the year goes on. Teams won’t face equal pitching all year, but the disparity won’t be this large. As the M’s face weaker pitchers, expect the offense to improve, even if the hitters on the M’s roster don’t change one bit.