Blackley out for 2005
Confirmed by two seperate sources, I’ve learned that Travis Blackley had surgery to repair a torn labrum last Tuesday and will miss the entire 2005 season. This was pretty easy to see coming, as I wrote last September:
“surgery for Travis Blackley is most likely inevitable. It just won’t happen soon.”
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; light a candle for King Felix.
Madritsch
In case you missed it, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman lists Bobby Madritsch as a player poised to break out this year. Definitional quibbling aside — can he really “break out” if he was the team’s best pitcher down the stretch last season? — I have to say that he’s the Mariner pitcher I’m most excited about watching.
Position Roundtables: Starting First Baseman
We continue our overviews of each roster spot with a look at the Mariners shiny new $50 million first baseman today.
Jeff: Starting First Baseman: Richie Sexson
If there is a bright side to getting nothing for a position, here it is: whoever takes over afterward is almost certain to look good by comparison. The revolving door-sinkhole that was first base last year (and how’s that for a mixed metaphor?) has given way to Richie Sexson. However observers felt about his exorbitant contract, he’s just about certain to be a performance upgrade, given just two words as a caveat.
Those words are: If. Healthy. And unfortunately, it’s far from certain that he will be.
Sexson is a huge man who generates tons of power with his swing. So much power, in fact, that just checking his swing popped Sexson’s shoulder out of joint, causing a bone bruise upon reattachment. As age sets in — he turned 30 in December — likelihood of injury doesn’t decrease. Even if the maladies aren’t of the season-ending variety, a power outage similar to Shawn Green’s is possible.
When watching Sexson this year, think: this is the season when his productivity is likely to be highest.
Maybe a combination revolving door-sinkhole isn’t such a bad image for this position after all. It conveys something spinning, spinning and heading ever downward.
Derek: Didn’t we think the same thing about Spiezio being an upgrade over Cirillo at third, though?
I’m going to ignore for now the issues of his contract, and his DUI.
What Sexson is likely to contribute next year would be great: a
power-hitting right-handed bat who’s also a top-tier defensive first
baseman. That’s what the Mariners are paying him for. If you place your
faith for a moment in the team’s doctors, figure in some decline from
aging, maybe a slow return from having not played regularly for a year,
the bottom of a healthy Sexson expectation is .260/.320/.500. That would have
made him the second-best hitter on last years team, behind only Ichiro! The best
outcome for a healthy Sexson is a return to peak form, maybe a
.270/.360/.550 season.
The unhealthy Sexson scenarios get ugly quick: Spiezio as a regular
no-hit first baseman, Ibanez as a no-glove option, possibly some
combination of players — it’s all unappealing.
To the larger long-term picture, though, maybe we are better off with no
solution here, even it means ugly play now. I’ve heard the argument that
Sexson, because he displays what are commonly called “old player”
skills, should age well because those skills will expand. But on the
largest level, that’s not what happens. Players who, while young, hit
for average, power, and have speed tend to lose speed as they age while
they draw more walks and hit for more power. Then as strength and
reflexes erode, the average and power decline.
A young player with low contact numbers, no speed but power, who relies
on walks as a big part of their game have in general shorter careers.
They don’t add walks and power. Sexson isn’t going to become infused
with Super Old Man powers and draw 200 walks and hit 90 home runs at age
33 — we’ve likely already seen close to his max there.
If Sexson’s healthy next season, he’ll be an asset to the team and
contribute to returning them to respectability. In future seasons, I’m not so sure.
Dave: Sexson requires two different discussions, really. We should know fairly
quickly if the shoulder is going to be a performance issue. There is a
possibility that he’ll perform at a lower level than expected, ala Shawn
Green, but I’d guess that the more realistic scenarios involve him either
being 100 percent healthy or spending significant time on the DL. If he
shows up to spring training, taking hundreds of cuts a day and whacking the
ball all over the field, I’ll feel a lot better. If something in the
shoulder pops early on, well, this will go down as one of the biggest free
agent blunders in recent memory.
So, in the discussion of healthy Sexson, what should we expect? As Derek
said, Sexson’s contact issues point to a historical trend that his type of
hitter does not age particularly well, but let’s also put this in context;
he’s 30, which is just barely past his prime years and not even
significantly into the decline phase yet. While the discussion of aging
patterns of players with old man skills is interesting and relevant to his
contract, it isn’t particularly pertinent to his 2005 performance. The
difference between the expected performance of a 28-year-old healthy Richie
Sexson and a 30-year-old healthy Richie Sexson aren’t going to be
tremendously different. His 2000-2003 performances paint a fairly
consistent picture of his prime level of production; .270/.340/.530 or so.
Those are good but not great numbers for a first baseman, but his defense
was well above average by most metrics (though not by UZR, probably the best
of the flawed metrics we have for measuring defense at the moment, which had
him as the equivalent of Jason Giambi with the glove).
So, depending on which defensive metric you think is most likely to nail
Sexson’s worth with the glove, we should reasonably expect Sexson to be
worth something like 5-7 wins over replacement level. If he’s healthy.
If he’s not, well, I don’t think its quite as dire as Derek makes it sound.
Speizio isn’t nearly as bad as he was last year, and Ibanez’s problems with
the position would probably be minimized by regular playing time at the
position. But we certainly don’t want IbanZio in the lineup at first base
too often. If the M’s hope to contend at all this year, they need a healthy
Sexson.
Derek: I’d say this, though — we don’t know what his level of performance is
going to be. The Mariners think they do, or they wouldn’t have signed
the deal, but until he’s out there we don’t know if we get a 100%
Sexson, a 70% Sexson, or a 0% Sexson. That scares me a lot.
As for Ibanez at first — here’s my problem with the “regular playing
time improves play” argument. How often is that really true? Are there
that many cases of a player who looked horrible at a a position
initially getting better? Even an improved version of Ibanez at first is
pretty bad.
Dave: I don’t know that this type of injury lends itself to the likelyhood of
there being a 70 % Sexson. To me, it seems like the shoulder’s either
permanently broken, taking his career down the drain with it, or it’s not,
and he’s fine. I think if we’re going to assume that Sexson is playing
regularly, that would lend itself to the assumption that we’ve got 100 %
Sexson.
Players changing positions, struggling initially, and improving as the year
goes on? How about Randy Winn, circa 2004?
Playing first base just isn’t all that hard, especially if you have some
kind of lateral mobility. Ibanez isn’t quick by any means, but he’s got the
athletic skill to move side to side better than most major league first
baseman, and I fail to see why his reactions wouldn’t improve with
repitition.
Jason: The consensus seems to be that if Sexson’s healthy, he’ll hit; it’s
simplistic, I suppose, but I agree. He’s established himself as a .270’s
type of hitter with some walks and power. Sort of a Jay Buhner-lite, if you
will — more contact and a higher average, but fewer walks (though it’s
worth noting he walked 98 times in 2003). Even taking a bite out of his
numbers for Safeco, I think he can hit in the .260/.350/.500 range. Not
stellar, of course, but not awful for the position.
As for his health, I’m with Dave in that it’s probably an all-or-nothing
affair. If you look at Sexson’s career, he’s been quite durable — 148 games
played in 2000, 159 in 2001, 157 in 2002 and all 162 in 2003. If the
shoulder’s fine, there should be no reason he won’t play 150 or so games
next season.
If the shoulder’s not? I’d rather not think about that.
Position Roundtables: Starting Catcher
We’re launching our 2005 season preview today, but taking a slightly different approach that we think you all will enjoy. Over the next 50 days before Opening Day, we’re going to writeup a roster spot every other day with the thoughts and feelings of myself, Jeff, Peter, Jason, and Derek on the players who are likely to fill that role with the club. Consider it 25 mini roundtables. We’ll do a position every other day from now until April 3rd. We launch today with the Starting Catcher. Enjoy.
Dave: Starting Catcher: Miguel Olivo
The Mariners acquired Olivo in the Freddy Garcia trade to be the catcher of the present and future, but his poor performance in the second half of 2004 has left the starting job up for grabs. Olivo’s track record is all across the board in both the minors and the majors, but he’s shown flashes of ability and the potential for league average production is there. He’ll need to cut down on the passed balls in order to insure his playing time, and if he struggles, he could easily end up as Dan Wilson’s caddy. The range of Olivo’s possible production is vast, and his performance is one of the main uncertainties heading into 2005. Dave’s Projection for 2005 Olivo: .270/.320/.420, 350 AB.
Jason: I like Olivo a great deal; I was probably more excited that he was in the Garica trade than I was about Jeremy Reed. His .233 average last season makes his overall line look ugly, but there’s reason for optimism — better than 45% of his hits went for extra bases. Offensively, he needs to get back to drawing walks like he did in the minors, where he was right around the “10% of at-bats” mark, and the rest of his offensive game will come. He certainly runs well for a catcher, too.
Defensively, he seems to have a strong arm and quick enough release that the running game isn’t a problem. Obviously he needs to cut down on the passed balls (nine in 49 games after the trade), but he seems like a good enough athlete that this shouldn’t be an issue with work. Didn’t he hang out with Roger Hansen this winter to work on his defense?
I think Dave’s projection is pretty good, but I’ll go out on a limb and say he manages 400 at-bats under a new manager who perhaps isn’t as tied to Dan Wilson. I also think he’ll hit for a bit more pop… put me down for .260/.320/.440 and 15 homers.
Jeff: Like Jason, I’m bullish on Olivo. With JMB summarizing the “pro” side aptly, though, it’s devil’s advocate time for yours truly: here’s why I’m a little worried.
Olivo hit .233 last year, but hit just .200/.260/.387 after coming over in the trade. It was just 160 at-bats, but the drop-off of more than 100 points of slugging makes me wonder about his right-handed bat in Safeco. He’s just 26 years old, should improve, and I hope he will — but he’s just two years young than Ben Davis. The next year or two will be key if he’s going to establish himself as the answer at catcher.
That said, I’ll point that my compadres’ respective projections are just a hair’s breadth more optimistic than the PECOTA system’s forecast for Olivo (.247/.308/.418 in 307 at bats). I for one am hoping for the great leap forward.
Jason: That slugging dropoff was all batting average, though — after the trade, a full 50% of his hits (16 of 32) were of the extra-base variety. And if we want to talk even smaller samples, 10 of his 21 hits at Safeco last season (93 at-bats) were extra base hits.
Dave: Jason’s right on this one. I wouldn’t really be concerned with Olivo’s power. The legitimate concern is whether he’s going to make enough good contact for his power to be useful. His track record is all over the board. He hit .305 in Modesto in 99, then just .282 repeating the league the next year, than .259 in Double-A in 2001, but then hit .306 repeating the league in 2002. Then he hit .237 with the White Sox as a rookie, .270 with them in his second year, and .200 with us after the trade.
Basically, he could hit anywhere from .200 to .300.
Jeff: Agreed on both counts: power v. contact and Olivo’s inconsistency. An additional point that might be worth noting, though, is the dramatic platoon splits he’s shown. Even when he struggled in 2004, Olivo was able to brutalize left-handed pitchers. This is true over the past three years as well: in almost 650 total at bats, his OPS against lefties is .917, compared to .594 against right-handers.
When watching Olivo, it seems like he really struggles with breaking stuff from right-handed pitchers. I seem to see him bailing out a lot, which undoubtedly leads to a lot of those strikeouts and failed attempts at contact. It’s certainly too early to start talking about him being a platoon player, but I’ll be disappointed if the Mariners face a southpaw and he isn’t starting.
Dave: Small sample platoon splits can be misleading, but I think Jeff’s right in his analysis of Olivo’s past approach. The Olivo I’ve watched, both in Chicago and Seattle, has been a pure fastball hitter who really struggles with offspeed stuff. After the trade, he was a classic mistake hitter, only hitting pitches where the ball was in his wheelhouse, but desperately flailing at everything anyways. It will be interesting to see if his approach is different at all in 2005, as it’s hard to believe that’s the style he used to get himself to the major leagues in the first place, so the talent to be a less hackier version of his 2004 while retaining the power should be in there somewhere.
Peter: Olivo for career: 4.12 PA/K
Olivo ’04 w/Chicago: 5.38 PA/K
Olivo ’04 w/Seattle: 3.16 PA/K
So while Olivo went all Tasmanian Devil on us swinging
at anything and everything like it was a nervous tick
once he arrived in Seattle, he had been relatively
patient (for him) previously, and we can see his
season totals reverting to the mean.
On the other hand, Olivo had the mother of all funks
last September. Why? Did he mentally check out once
the M’s were done in August? Did aliens take over his
body? Did Melvin and Molitor tinker with his swing? Is
his vision okay? Did Dan Wilson defecate on Olivo’s
Joe Boo shrine?
Between September 4 and 28, he collected one hit (an
infield single) and one walk in 39 at bats. He struck
out 22 times, at least once in each game he started.
In 4 of those 11 games, he struck out 3 times.
According to ESPN’s game logs, 19 of those 22
strikeouts were of the swing-and-miss variety. (For
those scoring at home, Zito, Dotel and Hudson of
Oakland performed the amazing feat of freezing Olivo.)
Olivo’s ability to become a starter for any major
league team depends upon his discernment at the plate.
For his career, his OBP/SLG once he falls behind in
the count is .240/.326. Not a bad scouting report for
the opposition: Feed him a first pitch strike and then
you’ve got a better than 3-in-4 chance of setting him
down. But after a first-pitch ball, his numbers are
.336/.490.
Perhaps Mike Hargrove and Don Baylor can make some
kind of positive influence on Olivo’s approach at the
plate. I certainly hope so.
Why the Mariners will win the World Series
The Mariners will win the World Series this year. Mark it down. Check your geeky sabermetric alphabet soup at the door. I have a legitimate hypothesis.
So back at Christmastime a year and a couple of months ago I persuade my Yankee-lovin’ sister to get me a Red Sox hat. I have my reasons for my admiration of the Red Sox, but fear not–it’s nothing more than that: A Platonic admiration. For real. We’re just friends.
And then Christmas morn I open the box. I’m delighted. I unfold it, put it on. Now, my Seattle hat that fits like a glove is a 7-3/8. This Sox cap has to be at least a 10, as the bill is drooping over my nose. I feel like a little kid trying on dad’s cap. I check the size tag, and there you go, it says 7-3/8. Something’s fishy.
Sarah (that’s my Yankee-fied sister) feels terrible as she’s the empathetic, perfectionist sort. At least, I don’t think I heard any sinister giggles from her direction. That wouldn’t be completely out of character for her. We go to the mall. Exchange the cap for a style more suited to my small head. And everyone goes home happy.
Until a couple of days later, when after wearing my new Red Sox cap for a day or two, my forehead breaks out. A huge, nickel-sized collection right in the middle of my forehead. A friend asks what I bumped my head on. So I confront Sarah: “Did you curse my hat?”
Sarah: “Nope. It was the Bambino.” That’s a direct quote.
And then the Red Sox win the World Series.
So what do I ask for this past year for Christmas from the sweet sister? A new Mariners cap. What is it when I pull it from the box? Only 14 sizes too big. So again, we’re off to the mall where there in Tulsa, OK they have an entire wall of New York Yankee hats, floor to ceiling, of assorted styles and colors, most never intended for baseball apparrel. One may have even been edible. I can’t remember. After much searching, I finally discovered the corner of the store containing the single Mariner cap they have available. It’s the same gray one I have in my hand. Not acceptable.
I eventually found what I wanted on the store’s website. My retro ’77 Seattle hat came in the mail a couple weeks back. You can bet that once it’s warm enough, I’ll be sporting it day in and day out through the season in support of my Mariners and explaining to the good, simple citizens of Kentucky where I live just what exactly that yellow pitchfork-looking thing is. And doing it all happily.
Because it means the Mariners are winning the World Series this year.
Yum!
Schilling donates bloody sock to Hall of Fame
Think about how much this thing would go for on eBay!
More Mariner Chat
This time with the P-I, which offers an online Q + A with John Hickey Thursday at noon.
Mariners sign Jorge Campillo
Thanks to reader Rulo Montero (dude, I trailed to email you back, but your inbox is full), we were given the heads up that the M’s have, for all intents and purposes, agreed to a contract with 26-year-old RHP Jorge Campillo. Campillo starred for Culiacan of the Mexican League last year, posting a 2.05 ERA in 87 innings, walking just 17 batters compared to 62 strikeouts. International scouting supervisor Matt Stark obviously saw something he liked, as the M’s have signed him to a minor league deal and he will be invited to spring training, though I doubt he’ll be given a serious chance to make the 25-man roster. San Antonio or Tacoma seem like more likely destinations.
Information on Campillo’s stuff is a little more scarce, and none of my regular go to guys have anything on him. From reports gathered via the web, he sounds like a control artist who lacks great velocity, but he’s obviously found some way to get people out in the extremely hitter friendly Mexican League. We’ll keep digging around and see if we can’t get a little more information for you guys, but I wanted to let you know about this signing, especially since it doesn’t appear that anyone else has picked up on it yet.
Also, big thanks to J from Mariner Minors for doing a lot of the legwork on the research end.
Behold the power of green tea
Good news for non-steroid users: green tea extract boosts athletic performance, for endurance exercise anyway. A new study shows an 8-24 percent increase in swimming time-to-exhaustion in mice being fed the extract.
“Now that even baseball players may need to seek new, more natural performance aids,” the story asks, “will Japanese green tea sets become standard in dugouts and athletic training tables around the world?”
Humans of around 165 pounds would have to drink four cups a day to get the same effect. I’m off to make cup number one and ponder whether Shigetoshi Hasegawa switched to Earl Grey last year.
Spring has sprung … for Roberto Petagine, anyway
It might be snowing in Bellingham, but it’s spring training somewhere. Ichiro has started taking batting practice with his old team, the Orix Blue Wave, on Miyako Island in Okinawa. Thankfully, he’s preparing to return to the Mariners, not to go back to the old stomping grounds.
One player who isn’t going back to Japanese baseball, either, is Roberto Petagine. A free agent whose two-year deal with Yomiuri just expired, USA Today’s Rod Beaton expects Petagine to sign with Boston.
You may remember Petagine as the guy who stunk for parts of five U.S. seasons (and just over 300 total at-bats). After his year 27 season, he departed to the Yakult Swallows and promptly became one of Japan’s top sluggers.
Petagine hasn’t had the best reputation in Japan lately, since he’s demanded (and received) special treatment for himself and his wife, 57 year-old Olga. The Yomiuri Giants and the Petagines have slung some mud back and forth, with Olga criticizing team management and Giants staff basically saying Petagine is a washed-up has been with bad knees.
[Yes, he’ll be 34 in June, and she’s 57. When I was in Okinawa last summer, I watched an entire 10-minute segment of a Japanese baseball show devoted to — no joke — making fun of Petagine for having an old wife. Now that’s television. The Petagines seemed to basically laugh it off, though, so good for them.]
Judging by Petagine’s 2004 season, there may be something to the Giants’ claims. After posting slugging percentages of .600 or better for five straight years, the lefty’s numbers fell a precipitous 122 points. That’s a lot of slugging.
Don’t feel sorry for Petagine, since he made enough money in Japan to buy the Japanese TV station that made fun of his wife and then have everyone there fired, but his prime years over there indicate he could’ve been a top-shelf player on this side of the pond as well. Compare his age 28 season to Hideki Matsui’s:
Matsui – .334/.461/.692
Petagine – .325/.479/.677
Matsui’s three years younger, much healthier and plays better defense, so I’m not at all saying that Petagine will be even close to the player Matsui is. There’s virtually no chance of that. This just gives you some idea of the kind of player he was.
So what will he give the Red Sox, if they indeed end up signing him? According to Beaton, Boston isn’t counting on him for anything more than to “be a left-handed bat in left field and and come off the bench as an ideal successor to the departed Doug Mienkiewicz. [sic]” That’s not at all too much to expect from an offensive production standpoint, and though he’s lead-legged in the field, Petagine could be a valuable reserve.
I really like this thinking on the part of the Red Sox. Considering the cheap, near risk-free deal Norihiro Nakamura just signed with the Dodgers, I can’t imagine it would take much to sign Petagine. This is the type of minimal risk option that solid teams pursue.
Looking over at the Big Board, too, one can’t help but notice the absence of any left-handed bench bat that you’d like to see … well, come to bat. Conversely, if Petagine ends up working out, he could be a counterpart to the right-handed Bucky Jacobsen.
The Red Sox are right to consider Petagine. I hope the Mariners also take a look at him.