Jason Cooper
Last year, I stumped for Chris Shelton, who ended up being selected first overall in the rule 5 draft by the Tigers. With most of the 40 man rosters being finalized already, it appears to me that this years potential rule 5 steal is Moses Lake’s own Jason Cooper. He had a disappointing season for Double-A Akron, but there’s still life in his bat. For those who trumpet the cause of Ryan Howard, I’d suggest that Cooper is actually a comparable talent. He’s a 1B/LF with some serious power who can be pitched to and will have to make adjustments against good breaking balls. He’s not a star in the making, but could be a nifty bat off the bench.
Jason Cooper, folks. Let’s get the bandwagon rolling.
Stoneman
Sort of Mariner related; big kudos to Bill Stoneman for the Jose Guillen trade he made today. A fantastic move for the Angels, which isn’t exactly good news for Seattle. In one fell swoop, the Angels:
1. Moved a player who had alienated himself from the coaching staff and drove a knife into his trade value by wearing out his welcome in yet another city. Guillen being traded was the mortal lock of the offseason.
2. Saved $3 million in payroll for 2005.
3. Aquired a player who should be reasonably expected to contribute a similar performance to the one he gave up at ten percent of the cost.
4. Got a solid utility-infielder prospect thrown in on top of it.
A gigantic home run for Bill Stoneman. He cut payroll, made his team better and younger, and simultaneously dumped a player everyone knew he had no interest in bringing to spring training. Contrast this with the way the Mariners butchered the Carlos Guillen situation last year, and its essentially night and day.
And yes, Jim Bowden is well on his way to breaking the major league record for worst week ever.
40 man moves
While everyone else is adding players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, the M’s have moved one guy off, trading LHP Randy Williams to San Diego for non-prospect Billy Hogan. Hogan doesn’t have to be protected on the 40 man, so the M’s essentially picked up Hogan for nothing, as Williams likely would have been DFA’d if he hadn’t been traded.
The M’s also added Mike Morse, Wladimir Balentien, and Shin-Soo Choo to the 40 man roster to protect them from the rule 5 draft. Ramon Santiago was outrighted to Tacoma, meaning that we have traded Carlos Guillen for the crappy Juan Gonzalez.
Final tally: -1 40 man roster spot, -1 terrible shortstop.
What if it doesn’t end?
Dave’s post raises an interesting possibility, that early bad signings will later depress the market because it means there are fewer dollars in the pool, but it also reduces the number of potential players for that pool. Now, I hate using fantasy auctions as an example, but many people are familiar with what can happen next: say pitchers are hugely overvalued in your league. Top pitchers go for way too much money. Then everyone else starts worrying they won’t get any pitchers, and panic sets in. There are bidding wars for modest pitchers and the overpaid top guys start to look like bargains… but the fundamental distribution of talent remains the same. There will be few great guys, more good ones, many more okay ones. If you remain level-headed, you can still pick up a bunch of good values, but they’ll be at the low end of the spectrum, and you have to spend your money elsewhere.
So it is with this year’s free agent market. Say this trend continues, and teams continue to spend a ton of money on the worthwhile free agents. A team then faces a decision: do we too overspend to get something worthwhile, or is there a better application of this money?
If this scenario plays out as some of our readers fear, this may show the difference in the new front office versus the old one. I can objectively say that I have been too proportionally critical of the team’s failures in small matters over large ones. The team’s failure to pick up a decent platoon partner for Olerud, for instance: in the end, it’s what, a difference of 100 at-bats. Who really cares?
That was certainly Gillick’s attitude, and it showed — his Mariner teams had awful benches, with players badly suited to complement those on the field. By contrast, one of the things I love about Billy Beane is that, while he makes mistakes and has his problems, you know that Oakland pours over the minor league free agents, in the same way they obsess over the Rule 5 draft. They look for guys who might be good injury insurance, potential trade bait if they perform well, interesting injury rebounds, good drinking buddies, shiny objects of any kind.
They work the phones, talking to any front office that will answer, finding out who they’re thinking of moving, and why, and what they need in return.
That’s how you can do well if the market goes insane this year. If Bavasi & Co are smart and every position player starts to sign for way too much money, they can look to spend that money on the poor, the unwashed, the undervalued, but also they can look to find players on teams that are trying to dump contracts. If someone like Tampa Bay really wants to get rid of a veteran player to cut payroll, you can afford to take that on instead of filling that position in the open market.
If you’re good enough at filling the position with the random floatsam and stopgaps, and you retain payroll flexibility, you can also wait it out until later in the year, when teams may be trying to unload those same contracts (and others) and bulking up for the playoffs costs you much less.
I think Dave’s reasoning is sound — that bad spending on some players doesn’t have to result in the inflation of all free agent prices. But even if it created a one-year price spike, a smart team — especially one that’s not looking for a championship this year — can find ways to exploit market conditions and leave the free-spenders hurting next year and years after that.
The Market
Well, I don’t think anyone predicted this. 5 days into free agency, and we’ve had five rather, uhh, strange signings. We’re getting a sixth tomorrow when Arizona gives Royce Clayton a two year contract. A brief rundown:
1. Omar Vizquel: 3 years, $12 million
2. Cory Lidle: 2 years, $6 million
3. Cristian Guzman: 4 years, $17 million
4. Vinny Castilla: 2 years, $6 million
5. Troy Percival: 2 years, $12 million
Keep in mind, it was just five months ago that Carlos Guillen signed a three year, $15 million extension, passing up his first shot at free agency, to remain a Detroit Tiger. Carlos Guillen was worth about seven wins above replacement this year; Cristian Guzman one. Somehow, Guzman parlays that into a longer contract at just a bit less in annual value. And the Guzman signing is probably the most defensible of the bunch, honestly.
So, a few hours ago, I’m talking with a friend who works in a non-Mariners front office about this rash of deals. I express a bit of worry that these low-to-mid-tier players are setting a market value that will raise the rates the upper echelon players will expect to receive. His response, which I think is important (not word for word quote, since we were just talking):
“I disagree. I think this helps us sign (Player X) for less, actually. These guys aren’t setting the market; they’re simply allocating resources to players we weren’t going to pursue anyways. The supply of attractive free agents for us hasn’t changed one bit, but the amount of teams that will be pursuing them has probably dropped by two. Less demand, less leverage. Don’t worry about these signings; we’re still sticking to what we believe is an intelligent offer, and we’re glad that those who feel like overspending are doing so on guys we didn’t want anyways. (My GM) isn’t bound to match contracts given out by (Bowden, Dombrowski, Minaya, and Sabean). If (the agent) says that Omar is worth $4 million a year so (Player X) is now worth $15 million, I’ll gladly tell them to go ask Sabean for $15 million. He knows that he can’t, and so do we. This is good news, not bad news.”
He knows the baseball market, and how team’s operate, a lot better than I do, and what he says makes sense. So, his advice to me is my advice to you; don’t worry, be happy.
Mo Vaughn
I’m going to continue to do free agent writeups for guys you may have overlooked or for whatever reason haven’t been part of the conversation yet!
Your attention please: this, and the other post, are jokes. The joke being that unlike Dave, who’s been writing quite serious and in-depth profiles, given the keyboard I would write bizarre, error-filled, badly-reasoned profiles of the wrong people.
As we talk about the need for left-handed power in Safeco, one heavy name in free agency’s gone unmentioned: Mo Vaughn. He’s a huge left-handed power bat, he’s always drawn walks, and he’s been trying to get back in the game.
Now, the injury is an weighty issue — his 2003 was severely curtailed when his knee went out, but as late as 2000 he played in 161 games! And after a full season rehabbing, all the nagging aches and strains that slow most players down, nagging them through the off-season, aren’t going to be a problem. That he missed a year will raise some eyebrows, sure, but when he was with the Mets, he fought with their medical staff constantly to get back in the lineup — with their financial problems and their desire to shift Piazza to first, they wanted to collect the insurance money more than they wanted to have his monster bat in the lineup.
And if bringing Richie Sexson in isn’t an issue, why would Mo Vaughn be any different? Who wouldn’t want a career .293/.383/.523 hitter in the middle of their lineup?
Plus, Mo Vaughn brings intangibles. He’s a gritty player who thrived under pressure for East Coast teams. If we’re looking to bring grit and veteran leadership to the team, Mo would bring a ton of it.
Jamey Wright
Dave said I could write a free agent preview, so here goes!
Your attention please: this, and the other post, are jokes. The joke being that unlike Dave, who’s been writing quite serious and in-depth profiles, given the keyboard I would write bizarre, error-filled, badly-reasoned profiles of the wrong people.
One of the most coveted free agents this year is Jamey Wright. Briefly with the Mariners in spring training a couple of years ago, Jamey Wright is a high-upside young pitcher. For years limited in effectiveness by his team and injuries, Wright became a star this year under the tutelage of noted pitching coach Bob Apodaca in Colorado.
Jamey obviously knew exactly what he had to do to succeed: rely on the quality of his stuff and challange batters, and with the right coach he was able to do it. Wright went 15-8 this year, racking up 159 K against only 70 walks! And only 11 home runs all season! Ryan Franklin gave up 11 home runs in the time it took you to read this far in the post! Strangely, though, Jamey did not finish in the NL Cy Young voting at all.
Jamey’s overlooked kudos especially highlight the out-of-sight career he’s had. Along with robins, one of the first sights of spring is seeing the annual “Jamey Wright looks great in spring training” story, followed inevitably by another lost season.
This year’s almost miraculous comeback came at an especially fortiutous time for Jamey, as during his many short stints with different teams he had been at one point one of the worst pitchers in baseball, as measured by metrics like VORP, and ARP, and TOMA. Still under 30, his best years may lie ahead of him but one question remains: can Jamey Wright remain as good as he was this year, if he’s parted from the pitching coach that turned his career around? Or was this year a fluke, one that couldn’t be replicated even if he did stay with the Rockies?
And would that make him a bargain?
Jamey’s off-kilter eccentric nature may put off some teams more concerned with the right clubhouse fit, though, and those who are looking for a true #1 ace will likely look for a starter with a longer and more proven track record.
Is he cheap enough yet?
I don’t think he’s worth the risk. Even though he may live up to his potential and be a Cy Young candidate for years to come, the price he’ll command on the free agent market is so high that he would have to meet or beat this year’s performance every year in order to succeed.
It Just Continues
If last year was the offseason of fiscal restraint, all signs point towards this offseason being a return to insanity. Omar Vizquel’s brutal three year contract has now been topped, as the Phillies have given Corey Lidle a 2 year, $6.3 million contract. This Cory Lidle. Apparently, a 4.90 ERA, just over 5 strikeouts per 9 innings, and a history of mediocrity weren’t enough to convince the Phillies that Lidle just isn’t very good.
For comparison, Lidle’s 2004 VORP was 12.3. Ryan Franklin’s was 22.7. There may just be a market for dumping Franklin’s contract yet.
Free Agent Writeups
Yes, I’m still going to write up mini-articles on the more notable possible free agent acquisitions. For those who may have missed them, here are the ones I’ve completed to date:
Matt Clement
Carl Pavano
Brad Radke
Richie Sexson
Troy Glaus
Corey Koskie
Carlos Delgado
Adrian Beltre
Hopefully, I’ll knock out Edgar Renteria, J.D. Drew, Nomar Garciaparra, Kris Benson, and Kevin Millwood before the end of the month. The M’s are pretty clearly not in the Beltran hunt, so I’m going to skip writing him up, as enough bandwidth has been spent on him already.
The Knapsack Problem and the Winner’s Curse
As I wait to see if Valve allows Halflife 2 to drop at midnight Eastern across the country (do it! do it!) , I wanted to write a little about two of the problems that face teams in the off-season and drive free agent prices that don’t enter into a lot of discussions: player scarcity as it affects roster construction, and the errors of player valuation. Many of you already know all this, so please– don’t mind me. Read more