Game Report, Mariners over Rangers 8-3
That was the greatest game I’ve ever attended. My hands hurt from clapping.
Hendu
In a three minute span, Dave Henderson just espoused regression to the mean and winning being the cause of chemistry. Seriously. The conversation went something like this.
Rizzs: Hasegawa has struggled, blah blah blah.
Henderson: Well, you know, he had an ERA of 2.00 last year. When you have a year that far out of line with the numbers on your baseball card, look out next year. The baseball gods will bring you back to earth.
Rizzs: Blah blah blah. Melvin did a great job keeping this team up despite all the losses.
Henderson: Absolutely. You know, its easy to be loose and have great chemistry when things are going well. Chemistry comes from winning. When you’re losing, it’s hard to keep your spirits up.
We’ve given Dave Henderson a tough time for some pretty far-off comments the past few years, but these two simple beliefs could have saved the Mariners millions of dollars last offseason. Congrats to Hendu for nailing these points on the broadcast.
259!
Also, yes, I’m alive.
258!
Was there any doubt? First two at-bats. Awesome.
257!
Way to go, Ichiro.
Game thread, Rangers at Mariners, 10/1
What a beautiful day for outdoor baseball. See you there, folks.
Ichiro, BP, and stupidity
Over at Prospectus, there’s a free roundtable on Ichiro, his style, and his value. I’m guessing that everyone that reads USSM knows that Derek writes for BP and most probably know that I used to. By association, we understand that we’re often going to get lumped into agreeing with what Prospectus publishes, regardless of the issue. The guys at BP have done a lot of good work, and we cite them quite a bit.
However, the drivel that proceeds from Joe Sheehan’s keyboard on this subject matches the stupidity of anything Phil Rogers or Buster Olney have ever even thought of writing. A few of his “nuggets”:
Joe Sheehan: Is this record a little bit cheap?
Well, let’s see, it’s stood for 80 years and only been seriously challenged a handful of times. So, the answer is a pretty obvious no.
A .414 OBP and 13 net steals with good defense is a strong year, if not an MVP one.
Ichiro is 3rd in the American League in VORP, behind only Miguel Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero. He’s second in Equivalent Runs. According to Clay Davenport’s translations, Ichiro has been worth 9.1 wins and Vlad 9.7. According to any BP metric you want to look at, Ichiro has been just as valuable as any player in the American League this year. Considering that Safeco is playing at its most pitcher-friendly this year, the translations also don’t account for the complete impact of Ichiro playing in the best pitchers park in baseball. He’s hitting .405/.443/.508 on the road!
A couple of weeks ago, he bunted for a hit with a runner on second base and two men out in the sixth inning on a two-run game. I have no idea how that helps the team, or what might have happened if, say, Milton Bradley had done that.
We chastised Ichiro for this as well, but this is hardly the first time he’s done it. Baseball in Japan is different, and this is a commonly accepted play across the Pacific. And as for having “no idea how that helps the team”, well, here’s a run expectancy chart for you.
Runner at 2nd, 2 out: .344
Runners at 1st and 3rd, 2 out: .538
Getting on base always helps the team.
wondering if a record that seems so disconnected from the purpose of the game has as much value as one achieved with more connection to a season.
This is probably the stupidest thing BP has ever published, other than the Brendan Harris-Albert Pujols comparison. Ichiro is second in the league in OBP, only .006 behind Melvin Mora. Since the all-star break, he is hitting .440/.474/.534. To claim that Ichiro’s pursuit is disconnected from the Mariners goal to win games is beyond indefensible. For the last 3 months, he’s done more to help his team win baseball games than any player in the American League. Deriding him because you don’t like the way he’s doing it is ridiculous.
Right now, Ichiro’s performance on offense reminds me of Dennis Rodman’s in basketball, where he’s allowed to focus on one particular task, and where he racks up gaudy totals by being a specialist.
Actually, Ichiro is performing more like a mid-30’s Michael Jordan, the one that stopped playing tough defense or going for rebounds. He simply focused on scoring 35 points per game, dominating the offensive end of the court like no other guard has. Comparing rebounding to getting on base at a ridiculous clip is just asanine. At this point, Sheehan’s personal dislike of the hype Ichiro has gotten is glaring.
This isn’t a fully-formed idea
No, really?
Is Ichiro getting a pass because people like his style?
A pass? From what? From the due criticism that he should be getting for not hitting the Joe Sheehan way? Unbelievable.
Derek Zumsteg: So your argument then is that Ichiro is intentionally making contact with the ball trying to make singles and not…doubles? This non-optimal strategy, if it exists, has been awfully productive for him and it’s not as if hitting singles hurts the team.
Whether there’s a tradeoff between extra-base hits and singles is debatable, but it’s entirely possible concentrating on hitting singles is the better of these strategies, and until you can come up with a specific argument like “Ichiro is concentrating on singles, increasing his hit rate by 5% at the expense of 20% fewer 2B and 10% fewer HRs, a net loss of 40 bases since he adopted this strategy” all you’re doing is guessing.
The watered down, trying to remain civil way of saying “Joe, when it comes to Ichiro, you don’t have a clue when you’re talking about.” Thankfully, I don’t have to work with Joe anymore, so no gloves required here.
JS: I don’t know. My gut tells me Ichiro’s current performance isn’t sustainable.
Keep in mind, Joe Sheehan has built a “career” out of ridiculing people who analyze with their “gut”. Apparently, he’s reached such lofty self-assured status that its now okay for him, however.
I consider the bunt with two outs and a runner on second to be a pretty damning thing, though. Can you imagine the reaction to an unpopular player doing that?
Over the last two years, Ichiro’s done this 5 or 6 times. I personally don’t like the play, but there’s a decent enough case to be made that it helps the M’s. Run expectancy charts don’t lie. The M’s are expected to score more runs after Ichiro lays one down with a man on second than before he does. Getting on base is always a good thing.
Sheehan basically used the fact that Ichiro isn’t getting any extra base hits or walks this month as proof that he’s become a selfish player and stopped helping his team win games in pursuit of the record. In September, Ichiro has a .440 on base percentage. There’s absolutely no way to spin that as bad for the team, unless you have a preconceived opinion that you’re trying desperately to support any way you can.
Sheehan has a long history of writing less than positive things about Ichiro. Rather than take the opportunity to acknowledge his season is one of the most amazing we’ve ever seen and has made him every bit as valuable in 2004 as the elite players in the game, Joe takes swipes at his character and motivation. This is the same crap that the national writers have been doing for years when people fail in the playoffs. Their heart and will to win is called into question, and Joe has rightfully called those writers out for attempting to read into a players personality from his performance on the baseball field.
Only now, when it suits him, Joe Sheehan has done the exact same thing, and he’s tarnished the entire Baseball Prospectus brand with his ramblings.
Last series, Rangers at Mariners
Three games, all with a different reason to go:
Friday, October 1st (7:35): Ichiro! shows his appreciation for the fans by attempting to break the hits record. Also, the Mariners give away prizes.
“And the Pontiac Astrowagon goes to the fan in seat 0….0….0…..1. C. Montgomery Burns!”
“Yay!”
“Boooooo”
“And here come the pretzels!”
— Simpsons
I’ve had an ongoing debate with a friend of mine. He argues that by attendance, the prizes on this night and elsewhere are tilted to the masses in cheap seats.
I believe that the prizes are distributed more or less at random, but within certain restrictions. I’ve been to more games than I care to remember, and I’ve never seen the kind of random clumping you’d expect from a truly random distribution. It’s always section 328… section 112. Section 203… Section 115. Rarely are two prizes (like gift cards) given away to two people on the same deck.
So my opinion is that either they’re truly random orrrr they employ some kind of psuedo-random selection method, like:
– first giveaway random
– second giveaway random from all sections but the one that won
– third random giveaway from different *level* if the first two were the same
However, this kind of thing requires a lot of work and they’re probably better off just hitting the ‘randomize’ button again to get another result if it looks like people might be unhappy.
It’d be cool if the M’s gave Edgar something on fan appreciation night. I don’t know how you’d work that.
Saturday, October 2nd (5:35): Edgar Day. Gotta come out and cheer for Edgar. Check out Edgar’s journal on MLB.com, it’s… Edgar, for sure. Also check out the funny-and-distrubing Edgar mask.
Sunday, October 3rd: Souveneir night as Park and Meche match up. Edgar’s last game. Ichiro! sets the bar, hopefully, for future aspirants to history. The merciful end to a long, often hard-to-watch season (and not in the George Bush “I see on the TV screens how hard it is” sense, but that for much of this season there wasn’t much reason to watch the team, much less hope for the future) (thank you, I’d like to give a shout out to the comments thread that inspired that).
Or, if you prefer… Drese v Villone, Rogers v Moyer (who would have thought Rogers would be having a more effective season? but that’s a topic for that day’s game thread), and Park v Meche.
Team meeting
In case you don’t read Jeff Sullivan’s blog (you’re missing out, really), read this. Sometimes, a good laugh cures a lot of ills.
Melvin: “We’ve all been in the big leagues long enough to know that losing 100 games stinks.”
Ichiro: “257?”
Dobbs: “Speak for yourself, coach.”
Reed: “Yeah, what are you talking about?”
Bloomquist: “Simmer down, guys, the skipper’s talking to you.”
Melvin: “Any veteran in the clubhouse can tell you just how tough it is, I mean psychologically, to lose 100 games. It can break your spirit.”
Boone: “Hey, I can put a spoon on my nose!”
Ichiro: “257.”
Melvin: “It reflects poorly on you guys, it reflects poorly on me.”
Boone: “Wait, no I can’t.”
Melvin: “I can’t speak towards my future with this organization, but a lot of you guys are near the end of your careers, and nobody wants to retire after losing 100 games.”
Reed: “Do you even know my name?”
Boone: “Why won’t it stick?”
Melvin: “I mean, do you think Edgar wants to leave on a sour note? All he wanted was one last shot at a ring, but things haven’t exactly worked out like we thought they would.”
Ibanez: “You have to lick it first.”
Melvin: “You’ve got to do it for yourselves. Everyone in this clubhouse has a lot of pride in their big league careers, both present and past.”
Dobbs: “Dude.”
Ichiro: “250, and 7.”
Boone: “It’s still not sticking.”
Melvin: “We know what we can do at this level. We haven’t done it most of the season, but if we play at the level I know we can for the rest of the year, then we can end on a good note and avoid those 100 losses.”
Ibanez: “No, no, that’s too much. Just a little moisture.”
Rose and wrongness
I realized something today, as I sorted through a stack of email from people mad about my answer to a Pete Rose related question I answered in a chat.
I can see why people think I was wrong and should fess up. I’ve been so caught up in the long slide towards having parts of it proven correct that I missed it. It’s more complicated but at its heart, there’s a crucial assertion in the original story that I now think was wrong.