Apparently, Melvin and/or Molitor have ordered the M’s to swing at absolutely everything. A quick game log so far with total at-bat pitch count in parentheses:
Ichiro doubles on first pitch. (1)
Winn bunts at first pitch, fouls second pitch, lines out on second pitch. (3)
Boone grounds out on first pitch. (1)
Ibanez watches ball one, watches strike one, singles to center. (3)
Martinez singles on first pitch. (1)
Olerud swings at first two pitches, watches three balls, grounds out to first. (6)
Aurilia watches ball one, pops out to short. (2)
Davis flies out to left on first pitch. (1)
Bloomquist looks at strike one, swings at strike two, watches two balls, strikes out on fifth pitch. (5)
The first trip through the order took all of 20 pitches, 12 of which were swung at. Four at-bats ended in one pitch, and only two at-bats lasted more than three.
I know the M’s have been beaten up by Hudson in the past, but hacking at everything he throws isn’t going to change that. Keeping his pitch count down just serves to keep him in the game longer.
Once again, our readers rock. Avkash Patel, of the terrific The Raindrops blog that is focused on the Mets, directed me to the miscellaneous pitching section of ESPN’s player cards, where in the left hand corner, they have doubles and triples allowed for each pitcher. It is a relatively simple process to compile team numbers from there.
So, here are some raw numbers for you on the Mariners ability to prevent extra base hits (excluding homers) the past three seasons, when Mike Cameron was roaming center field and outfield defense was a strength of the ballclub. I tallied up the numbers for each pitcher who made at least 10 starts for the team that year. Adding in all the relievers would make this more accurate, but also more time consuming, and I’m not looking to come up with some earth-shattering revelation here. Using just the starters will get us 90 % of the accuracy.
2001
Garcia: 239 innings, 52 extra base hits, 1 every 4.6 innings
Franklin: 78 IP, 13 XBH, 1 per 6 IP
Moyer: 210 IP, 37 XBH, 1 per 5.7 IP
Pineiro: 75 IP, 13 XBH, 1 per 5.8 IP
Abbott: 163 IP, 39 XBH, 1 per 4.2 IP
Sele: 215 IP, 44 XBH, 1 per 4.9 IP
Halama: 110 IP, 19 XBH, 1 per 5.8 IP
Totals: 1090 IP, 217 XBH, 1 every 5 innings
2002
Garcia: 223 IP, 47 XBH, 1 per 4.7 IP
Franklin: 119 IP, 24 XBH, 1 per 5 IP
Moyer: 231 IP, 33 XBH, 1 per 7 IP
Pineiro: 194 IP, 40 XBH, 1 per 4.9 IP
Halama: 101 IP, 16 XBH, 1 per 6.3 IP
Baldwin: 150 IP, 45 XBH, 1 per 3.3 IP (Reason #1,413 that he sucked eggs)
Totals: 868 IP, 160 XBH, 1 every 5.4 innings
2003
Garcia: 201 IP, 39 XBH, 1 per 5.2 IP
Franklin: 212 IP, 27 XBH, 1 per 7.9 IP
Meche: 186 IP, 30 XBH, 1 per 6.2 IP
Moyer: 215 IP, 40 XBH, 1 per 5.4 IP
Pineiro: 212 IP, 36 XBH, 1 per 5.9 IP
Totals: 1026 IP, 172 XBH, 1 every 6 innings
It is pretty obvious that last years outfield defense was the best we’ve seen and a huge reason for the success of the team’s pitching. As we’ve noted, Ryan Franklin’s success was due almost entirely to Cameron, Winn, and Ichiro and their defensive prowess.
While the sample is ridiculously small and means nothing right now, the team’s four starters have combined to allow 9 XBH’s in 22 innings so far this year, or one every 2.4 innings. Essentially, they’re out-sucking James Baldwin in allowing doubles and triples, and it is the main reason why the team ERA is almost 8.00. They’ll improve, but I can say with a lot of confidence that they won’t get near last year’s mark, and that will be the main factor in why the team ERA is significantly higher this year than it was last year.
Update: I should always make sure Jeff Sullivan hasn’t beaten me to the research before I post stuff like this. His work is up over at his blog. His numbers don’t follow the same line of thought as mine exactly, as mine are more focused on the outfield’s ability to prevent extra base knocks, and his is more aimed towards a pitchers tendancies towards giving up types of hits, but it is interesting in its own right. Check it out.
Some random comments on a Saturday morning.
1. I miss DMZ’s posts. Hurry back, Derek.
2. The Tigers, Devil Rays, and Reds are in first place, for those of you still insisting that we can draw inferences based on the first four games. The Tigers are undefeated. 0-4 starts aren’t any fun, but they don’t mean anything either.
3. Did someone order an anti-walk edict? Nine bases on balls in 144 at-bats against such notable command artists as Colon, Escobar, Washburn, and Redman? Wilson, Boone, Aurilia, and Bloomquist have combined for 57 at-bats and 0 walks.
4. 7.97 is the number of the day. It is both the team’s K/9IP ratio (excellent) and ERA (awful).
5. With all the access to numbers we have, why doesn’t anyone carry a breakdown of types of hits allowed by pitchers/teams? We’re told hits allowed and homers allowed, but apparently no one cares about doubles and triples allowed. I’d love to see a breakdown of how many doubles and triples the M’s opponents averaged per game last year. I have a feeling it would be about half of what they’ve allowed in the first four games this year.
6. If Quinton McCracken is good enough to start, why does he need to be pinch-hit for in the 6th inning by Jolbert Cabrera against the starting pitcher? This is a rhetorical question. He’s obviously not good enough to start.
7. Was there a more curious acquisition this offseason than Billy Beane trading for Damian Miller? And, if he was hoping for an improvement from last year’s .233/.310/.369 line, how frustrated is he right now after Miller’s 1 for 13 start, mostly coming against the vaunted Texas pitching staff?
8. I know not everyone is having the greatest luck with it, but I love MLB.tv.
9. Go M’s.
The losing continued last night, with all four minor league affiliates dropping their openers. The Mariners as an organization are now 0-7 in 2004. Good times.
Tacoma lost 9-8 in 12 innings on a Chad Tracy home run off Craig Anderson. Starter Bobby Madritsch pitched decently, striking out five through five innings, but the bullpen struggled. The offensive star was Bucky Jacobson, who went 3-6 with a home run and five driven in.
San Antonio also felt 9-8, again due to a bullpen implosion. Starter Troy Cate gave up 3 runs in 4 innings, but Jared Hoerman got the loss by allowing 3 runs in the 9th after Emiliano Fruto had given up two in the 8th. Greg Jacobs went 2-3 with a home run, a double, and a walk to pace the offense.
Inland Empire lost 1-0 to Lancaster after Cesar Jimenez balked in the winning run. Bobby Livingston pitched 8 shutout innings, giving up just two hits (one an infield single) and no walks while striking out three. On a night where the team got four hits and no runs, there were no offensive stars. Felix Hernandez takes the mound for IE tonight, the day after his 18th birthday.
Wisconsin fell 5-1 as the bullpen implosions continued. Tom Oldham went 4 shutout innings to start, but Nibaldo Acosta gave up 2 unearned runs, followed by Eric O’Flaherty giving up a run, and finally Kenly Chang giving up two more in his inning of work. The team managed just six hits, with Chris Colton accounting for the one run with a solo home run in the second inning.
Well, that was fun. Its still far too early to hit the panic button, but this series pretty much exemplified the concerns we’ve had about the team composition:
1. The defense is significantly worse at critical positions.
2. The offense lacks power.
3. The contact pitchers are going to have an impossible time duplicating their 2003 performances.
4. There is no depth to withstand injuries to any pieces, much less the important players.
We saw some awful outfield defense, an offense that can only score when stringing together singles, Shigetoshi Hasegawa blowing as many saves in ’04 as he did in ’03, and an inability to pinch hit for poor players in key situations. These three losses don’t end the Mariners chances, but they do magnify the problems the team will have to overcome.
Fun quotes from the Anaheim feed.
“Freddy is rolling. He’s retired seven in a row with a walk in between.”
So, he hasn’t retired seven in a row, then…
Freddy’s change-up is on today. It is still his best pitch, and when he’s got it moving like he does now, he’s tough.
Ridiculous minor league article of the day
Let’s hear it for the ridiculous minor league article of the day. Nothing like a little hype to get some fans ready for opening day of the minor league system, but this takes the hyperbole to another level. Comparing Adam Jones to Alex Rodriguez is, well, I don’t have words for how far off the mark it is. When talking to scouts about Alex Rodriguez as a high school player, the words “best I’ve ever seen” are common. Talk to the same scouts about Adam Jones, and you’ll hear things like “reach pick”, “I’m not sure he’s going to hit”, and “good arm, but I like him better on the mound”. Forget Alex Rodriguez; we should be happy if Adam Jones turns into Alex Arias.
Jason’s Big Board is one of the coolest features on the web. Make sure you put it to use.
Some of the prospect mavens among you may notice a few recognizable names not on the opening day assignments for the full season teams, and good luck getting any information from the local papers. So, for those of you who care, here’s an update on some of the missing prospects:
1. Rett Johnson. He’s working in extended spring and the organization is cautiously optimistic that he’ll be assigned to Tacoma at some point this year, though there is no current timetable for his return to competitive pitching. This is a continuation of the “personal problems” that caused him to leave camp during spring training.
2. Jamie Bubela tore tendons in his knee during the offseason and will miss the entire 2004 season.
3. Jared Thomas tore up his ankle and is rehabbing in Arizona with the hope of pitching at some point late in the season.
4. Vince Faison has arm problems and is unable to throw. He is working out in Arizona, hoping to work his arm back to strength where he can join San Antonio in May.
I’m pleased to announce the first complete Big Board of 2004. Thanks go out to Dave for tracking down Wisconsin’s roster this morning. To cut off any questions — starting lineups and rotations are, in some cases, our best guesses. We’re more certain about Tacoma’s and Wisconsin’s rotations than we are about San Antonio’s or Inland Empire’s, however. Bullpens are listed alphabetically, without regard to which pitchers will have which roles (with the exception of closer, which again, is just a best guess).