Game 138, Rangers at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Martin Perez, 7:10pm
So the M’s got to knock around Cole Hamels *and* make one of the Rangers’ top prospect’s MLB debut a low-key nightmare. Not bad. It just came at the expense of another awful King Felix start.
I mentioned it just a few days ago, and I don’t want this blog to be me just lamenting the sheer volume of mediocre baseball we’re all subjected to, but: this is kind of a forgettable day as far as the M’s go. They’re playing out the string against a good Rangers club, but we don’t get to watch an interesting opposing starter – it’s just Martin Perez, whom we’ve seen plenty of times, and who, somewhat improbably, has a K-BB% of under 3. That’s…that’s whatever’s below replacement league. I’m not saying Perez himself is a AA starter, but for years, people thought he’d hone his stuff and the strikeouts would come. Instead, he’s hemorrhaging whiffs, AND walking more batters as well. It hasn’t hurt his overall results, because hey, it’s the 2016 Rangers, where peripherals don’t matter.
The point is, the minor league playoffs start tomorrow, and that’s fun. It doesn’t make up for the M’s late August collapse, but it’s something to follow, and given the players involved, you can start to see the outlines of another decent M’s team. Yesterday was Felix Day, tomorrow the Rainiers, Generals, Blaze, Lumberkings, and Aquasox all take the field in the postseason. The main interest in tonight’s game is the structural integrity of James Paxton’s finger.
I thought this was the most interesting stat about Martin Perez, and it’s kind of a microcosm of the Rangers and M’s this year. Perez is running a GB% this year of 52.9%, and he’s pitched about 170 IP. Felix has tossed 127 IP with a GB% of 52.4%. Martin Perez has watched his teammates turn *35* double plays behind him. Felix has seen just 12 turned by the M’s defense. So Felix has played a bit less, so let’s make things interesting. Felix had 30 DPs turned behind him in all of 2015. And 2014. Combined.
Yes, yes- Felix has comparatively fewer in part because he’s capable of generating strikeouts, something Perez (perhaps smartly?) doesn’t deign to do anymore. But it’s the perfect encapsulation of the Rangers’ “clutch” season. James Paxton, Tai Walker, Felix Hernandez and Nate Karns have combined to get 36 DPs turned behind them, and Martin Perez is at 35 by himself. This isn’t Elvis Andrus having an insane season; no one else on the Rangers has 20. It’s just one of those weird things that’s gone Texas’ way this year.
1: Heredia, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: O’Malley, SS
SP: James Paxton
No minor league games today; we’ll preview the playoff series tomorrow. For now, check out Todd Milles’ series preview and look at the work first-year hitting coach Scott Brosius has done with the R’s bats in this News Tribune story.
Game 137, Rangers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Cole Hamels, 1:10pm
Happy Felix Day to you, as well as a very happy Labor Day. It’s nice to have a day off to really enjoy a Felix start properly – with mid-afternoon beers and grilled meats. Of course, the last few Felix Days haven’t felt too celebratory. We’ve seen Felix scuffle before, and we’ve seen him make minor tweaks and resume his reign, but it’s pretty obvious that the bad patches are getting closer and closer together. The M’s aren’t going to the playoffs this year, so what I’d like to see is clear, unambiguous improvement from their ace. Felix is still just 30, and while there are a lot of miles on his right arm, he’s still King Felix, and if the M’s have any chance at contention next year, they’ll need a big year from him. Even if the M’s take a different tack and see what they could get for Nelson Cruz, we’ll still need a full year from Hernandez both as a mentor to younger starters and as someone capable of leading the staff if everything breaks right and the M’s make an improbable run at the wild card next year.
Cole Hamels is having an excellent year despite a walk-driven spike in his fielding-independent stats. A career-worst 9% walk rate seems like a bad omen, especially while pitching half your games in Arlington, but Hamels has pitched around it thus far. It’s hard to know how much of his insanely high strand rate is luck and how much is the Rangers’ defense, but whatever it is, Hamels has been tough to score on this season. Like his teammates, Hamels has been unusually good in high-leverage situations, with 30% of the balls in play against him in crunch time classified as softly hit, compared with just 18% in low-leverage situations. While he’ll pitch around tough hitters in high-stakes plate appearances (fewer Ks, more walks), his BABIP plummets. This is either more of that weird Rangers devil magic that produces actual win totals 10+ games above their pythagorean or base runs total, or it’s luck plus planning.
One example of the M’s poor base-running is that the M’s have hit into 23 more double plays than the Rangers despite having an essentially even on base percentage. The M’s are 5th in MLB with 121, while the Rangers are down in 23rd with only 98. That’s all factored in to base runs and stuff, but part of being “clutch” is giving yourself a CHANCE by avoiding silly or costly mistakes.
1: Heredia, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Sucre, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: El Cartelua
Like everyone who saw yesterday’s game, I’m keeping Matt Shoemaker in my thoughts today. After taking a Kyle Seager liner off his head, Shoemaker suffered a skull fracture and needed an emergency surgery last night when doctors discovered more bleeding between his brain and skull. The LA Times Pedro Moura reports he’s awake and speaking now, but he’s not out of the woods. The whole thing reminds me a bit of Brandon McCarthy’s injury several years ago – and after a long time, McCarthy returned pitching as well as ever. Hope Shoemaker can do the same.
The minor league season wraps up today, and the Rainiers are at home taking on Reno. With a big crowd, they can set their all-time attendance record. Mike Curto also notes that the club’s been really tough at home: they’re 45-26 at Cheney on the year. With Ryan Strausborger out, the Rainiers grabbed Eric Filia from Everett. Lots of moving around as the M’s affiliates prepare for the postseason.
Newcomer (and extravagantly bearded) Bryan Evans starts for Jackson, while Joe Wieland takes the hill in Tacoma.
Game 136, Angels at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Matt Shoemaker, 1:10pm
The M’s allowed 5 HRs last night, and saw Taijuan Walker’s worst year as a pro reach what we all hope is the nadir, as the young righty gave up back-to-back-to-back HRs and couldn’t get out of the first inning against the Angels. I and others have said that Walker’s development would be critical to the M’s chances at contention; if Walker became a great #2 starter, the M’s would look a lot different than if he was still figuring things out as an inconsistent #4-#5 guy with loads of unrealized potential. Unfortunately for the M’s, Walker hit a wall right when the M’s needed to make a move, and while I don’t necessarily agree with their methods, I can forgive the M’s and Scott Servais’ frustration with Walker in July and August. I can see the M’s player development staff wanting to try and do a complete rebuild in 2017, the way they did with both Mike Zunino and James Paxton this year. No one expected Paxton to start the year in Tacoma, but it turned out well. Ok, EVERYONE thought Zunino should start the year in Tacoma, but I think that worked out much faster than we all anticipated. Trying something like that with Walker seems attractive, especially if they can work on that whole “throw 100mph with command” projects like they did with Paxton. That’s why it was odd that the M’s decided to burn an option year and make a point of sending Walker down for all of 2 weeks in early-mid August. I don’t think that alone constricts their ability to develop Walker, but it was an odd move that doesn’t look any better in retrospect.
Today we get another installation in the always fun “Iwakuma versus American Iwakuma-ish Pitcher” series. We’ve seen this match-up several times before, of course, the last a few weeks ago on August 18th. Shoemaker got the best of the M’s in that one, yielding just 2 solo HRs in the Angels’ 6-4 win. The righty’s season’s been a successful one, as he shook off a poor 2015 to post his highest career fWAR, and his best rate stats since his breakout 2014. One reason why is that he’s essentially doubled down on his splitter. In 2015, he threw it about 21% of the time, and while it was still his big whiff pitch, and something he’d use with 2 strikes, he also gave up 9 dingers off of it. This year, he’s throwing it 37% of the time, and his results are even better: batters are slugging .282 off of it, a year after slugging over .400.
That all sounds positive, and it is, but kind of like with Mike Zunino, the deeper you go, the less you see. In 2015, batters swung at the splitter more than in 2016, and they put it on the ground at about the same rate. Their whiff rate (whiffs per swing) is up slightly in 2016, but not by much, and while Shoemaker’s o-swing rate overall is much better this year, it’s hard to see whether that’s due to throwing more splitters or something else (he’s throwing more sinkers and sliders this year too). With Shoemaker and to a lesser extent Iwakuma, so much depends on how many well-struck fly balls leave the park, and how many settle into an outfielder’s glove. In Shoemaker’s brilliant 2014, batters had a terrible HR/FB ratio against his splitter, and Shoemaker’s overall numbers were good. They had a great HR/FB ratio in 2015, and Shoemaker looked terrible. In 2016, it’s a repeat of 2014. This isn’t to suggest pitchers themselves aren’t *doing* anything to “deserve” their numbers; Shoemaker’s true talent level has probably ebbed and flowed since he came into the league. But it’s hard to know how all of the relevant factors interact. Is Shoemaker’s increased use of the splitter somehow driving a change in HR/FB? Were batters stalking the splitter in 2015 because he’d fall into familiar pitch sequences? Who knows. Let’s just hope that whatever devil magic has turned Safeco Field into Coors Field by the sea is still operating today, and that the M’s can stop worrying about where their playoff run went and just focus on knocking Shoemaker out of the game.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Iannetta, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Chris Iannetta’s 2017 option vests if he makes 100 starts this year. This’ll be #82, and it’s looking pretty doubtful he’ll get another 18.
Drew Storen’s back in the Seattle clubhouse and will be activated off of the DL today. The M’s also added David Rollins and back-up catcher Jesus Sucre from Tacoma. Tacoma’s got a playoff run to work on, and so they’ve added Mayckol Guaipe from his rehab assignment in Peoria. Guaipe was part of the AZL M’s championship run, along with fellow 2016 Mariner Steve Clevenger.
Game 135, Angels at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Tyler Skaggs, 6:10pm
Tyler Skaggs is making his 8th start since coming off the DL following TJ rehab, but it’s already his 3rd against the Mariners. After two brilliant games out of the gate, he’s been inconsistent and wild in the 5 games since. That’s probably to be expected, and realistically, the Angels just want to see what they have for 2017. Still, they’d be a bit more confident about next year if he can recapture the form he had in his last start against the Tigers. Against Seattle this year, he’s gone 8 2/3 IP and given up 8 runs on *15* hits and 5 walks. That hit total – and his BABIP – suggest he’s been unlucky (his FIP’s not bad), but it seems like it could also be a product of his still-wonky command. He’s walked too many, but I doubt he’s had pinpoint command within the strike zone, and the result seems to be a lot of squared-up pitches.
It’s been a while since we mentioned it, but I suppose due diligence demands it: the M’s playoff odds are below 6% now, which honestly feels a bit high. Detroit’s been the hottest team among the wild card hopefuls, and they’ve crawled back from that dispiriting sweep at the hands of the M’s to pull into a tie with Baltimore for the 2nd wildcard. The Astros have been red hot except for the fact that they simply can’t beat the Rangers – with Texas’ win today, the Astros fall to 2-13 against their intra-state, intra-divisional rivals.
Ben Gamel makes his second straight start in the OF and the leadoff spot. Yes, Norichika Aoki’s eligible to rejoin the M’s what with expanded rosters and all, but I can’t blame the M’s for giving more of a look to Gamel. The M’s don’t have a lot of right-handed hitting depth in the OF at the moment, but it’s good to see Gamel get the start today against a lefty in Skaggs.
Mike Zunino responded to my (ok, and everyone else’s) posts about how well he’s doing by entering his first real slump of 2016 (uh, in the majors – he actually had one in Tacoma). This’ll be interesting, as it seemed like his frustration built upon itself and made his 2015 a nightmare. I’d bet keeping tabs on Zunino’s a very, very high priority for Edgar Martinez at the moment.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Martin, CF
9: Marte, SS
SP: Taijuan Walker
The first M’s affiliate to actually start a post-season series is also the first to come up with a league championship. Congratulations to the Arizona League M’s, who beat the Angels for the AZL crown. The rookie-league team got great pitching from Dylan Thompson and Carlos Hernandez, and 1B Ryan Uhl (who played in Everett last year, and missed most of 2016 due to injury) provided the offense with a 2R HR.
Luiz Gohara’s starting for Clinton tonight, and Ryan Yarbrough makes his first start since coming off the DL for Jackson. The Rainiers have a now-meaningless series against Reno, but that at least gives them the opportunity to check in on old friend Vicente Campos. Campos starred for Everett back in 2011, before being traded to New York in the Pineda/Montero deal. After many injuries, he’s now in the Arizona system, and had a cup of coffee with the DBacks earlier. There are a couple of current Rainiers who played with Campos in Everett: C Marcus Littlewood and RP Andrew Kittredge.
LJay Newsome and Eddie Campbell round out the probables in the M’s system.
Game 134, Angels at Mariners
Ariel Miranda vs. Brett Oberholtzer, 7:10pm
We’ve been through some lean times, haven’t we? Bleak seasons, followed by recriminations, firings, and ho-hum transactions, followed by irrational exuberance about some prospect, followed by another bleak season. It hasn’t all been bad, of course – the M’s have fielded some quality teams, and while some free agent signings have been Brad Wilkerson-level, some have brought us Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. It’s been a mixed bag, and it’s only looking back, taking it all in, that it really feels disastrous.
And hey, that’s the past. That’s WHY the team made a change at GM (and many other positions), and when you look at the minors, you see the stirrings of a player development revolution. There’s plenty to look forward to, I think. But it’s September 2016, and today the M’s play the long-eliminated Angels, and the pitching match-up is Ariel Miranda – a recent unheralded pick-up by the M’s – against Brett Oberholtzer, a recent pick-up by the Angels off the waiver wire.
We’ve seen bad match-ups before. Hell, we’ve seen bad match-ups involving Mr. Oberholtzer, given that the majority of his big-league tenure came in Houston. He remains left-handed, unremarkable in stuff and bat-missing ability, and plagued by a surfeit of home runs. He’s allowed 3 thus far in his 9 IP with LA, and tonight in the suddenly homer-prone Safeco Field, he could give up plenty more. There’s just the matter of his left-handedness; the M’s are still scuffling against southpaws, and while the got to Cole Hamels, he’s traditionally been a reverse-split guy, thanks to his change-up. But if Hamels relies on his change, Oberholtzer is utterly dependent upon it. He throws it far more than any other pitch besides his fastball, though he’s belatedly learned a slider that he’s trying to work in more and more. The cambio’s been his best pitch, but that isn’t saying much. Oberholtzer had moved from the Astros to the Phillies as part of the Ken Giles trade, which made sense considering how bereft of talent the Phillies looked in the offseason. But with Vincent Velasquez (the headliner in that same deal) and Jerad Eickhoff (part of the Cole Hamels trade) and Aaron Nola stepping up, the Phillies didn’t actually *need* a replacement level starter. That the Angels clearly do tells you all you need to know about how 2016 has gone in Anaheim.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: Miranda
Welcome, Ben Gamel! Starting/batting lead off in his first Mariner appearance.
And welcome BACK to Nelson Cruz, who’s been missed as he recovered from a minor injury.
The Rainiers completed the organizational sweep last night, beating Fresno 2-1 in 14 innings on a Ryan Strausborger walk-off single. Mind you, they’d actually made the playoffs a few hours before, when Reno lost their game 3-1. The Rainiers announced to their fans (and the teams) that the Rainiers were division champs, but credit to the R’s for going out and actually winning the game, though it took them far longer than it should’ve – they left the bases loaded a few times in the late innings, and the game ended up taking about 5 hours despite the low score. But: all seven affiliates of the M’s have qualified for their league’s postseason tournament.
I mentioned it on Twitter, but the team with the biggest year-over-year turnaround has been Clinton, the M’s Midwest League team. Thanks to a biblical-plague-level 2nd half of 2015, Clinton lost over 90 games in a 144 game schedule, winning just 46 and posting an abysmal winning percentage. This year, they’re sitting on 83 wins, and have a shot at improving their win total by 40 games. In a year. In a short, 144-game season. This is mind-blowing to me; the biggest year-on-year turnaround at the big league level that I can find (and remember, that’s in 162 games) is 35, by the 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks. That club brought in some lanky left-handed pitcher named Randy Johnson as part of a big influx of talent and ended up winning 100 games. And Clinton’s already surpassed that with a few more games to play, and, sad to say, without any Randy Johnson-level talents in sight.
Speaking of Clinton, the players to be named later in the M’s acquisition of Arquimedes Caminero were announced: Jake Brentz and Pedro Vasquez. I’ll admit – that was a bit steeper a price than I’d expected, as Vasquez has shined for Clinton. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so it’s not a huge loss, but he showed very good command. Brentz is a lefty wild card; he’d looked like a diamond in the rough last year when he was picked up from Toronto in the Mark Lowe deal, but regressed a bit this year. Still, a lefty with a big fastball is a nice second piece in exchange for a faltering (if talented) bullpen arm.
M’s Add Ben Gamel, M’s Affiliates Dominate, AFL Rosters Released
Three quick items to talk about today, and none of them involve depressing post-mortems of a gruesome 1-8 road trip. The M’s made a minor trade yesterday, saw yet another affiliate punch their ticket to the postseason, and released the most exciting list of Arizona Fall League assignments in years.
1: One of things that’s made the Dipoto regime somewhat distinct is the flurry of small moves both during the off-season and throughout the summer. Some may quibble that by skirting the big questions like rebuild or add current wins, the M’s are essentially re-arranging deck chairs. Others may argue that these minor moves are common – a key part of operating several minor league affiliates as well as trying to cover for a rash of injuries. I think it’s fair to say that this latest move, like most, doesn’t fundamentally alter the M’s future, but it does illustrate Dipoto’s desire both for depth in the upper-minors as well as at positions of need.
The M’s acquired Ben Gamel from the Yankees yesterday in exchange for two rookie-level pitching prospects, Jio Orozco and Jorge DePaula. Of the two, Orozco’s the headliner, a 14th rounder out of an Arizona high school who opened some eyes in the Arizona League last year and again this year. He’s got a bit more upside than you’d think from a later-round draft pick, as his very solid K rates indicate. Fangraphs had him as the M’s #19 prospect coming into this year, but he’d be higher than that at the time of the trade.
Gamel caught my eye when the M’s were working out a deal with New York last year, the one that sent Dustin Ackley east in exchange for Gamel’s one-time teammate, Ramon Flores. Gamel didn’t quite have Flores’ batting eye, but everything else about him was perhaps a notch above. Gamel’s hit for a touch more pop over his minor league career, and is a better (though not a really good) fit for CF than the corner-OF-only Flores. While he didn’t have Flores’ nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio, Gamel’s consistently hit for a higher average, and kept his K rate under 20% in the high minors. It’s these characteristics that have him ranked in the top 100 prospects by Fangraphs’ KATOH system, a stats-only way of looking at minor league talent.
Scouts would take the under on that KATOH forecast, as Gamel’s a bit undersized and has the classic “tweener” profile without any one standout tool. They’re different players, but I kind of see Gamel as the replacement for another undersized, great-MiLB-OBP infielder that Dipoto acquired earlier: Boog Powell. Powell’s actually younger than Gamel, but he essentially lost his 2016 after his 2nd PED violation. Powell’s probably more of a CF, though neither are going to win gold gloves at the next level.
Gamel’s hit for a solid OBP in AAA for two straight years, but picked a bad time for a power outage this year. While he enjoyed a cup of coffee with the Yankees earlier, he’s been passed by Aaron Judge, a corner OF with much more power and a better prospect pedigree, and by Rob Refsnyder, another ex-teammate who saw time in the Yankees OF after moving from 2B. The Yankees are rebuilding, but still don’t really have a spot for him with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury still around. That’s why it’s easy to like this move from the M’s point of view, especially given the level at which Orozco’s currently pitching. Gamel has more value to the M’s than the Yankees, and thus this swap seems fair all around. It clearly fills a need for the M’s, so it’s hard to complain.
2: Bakersfield made it official the other night, beating San Jose to clinch the Cal League 2nd half title. Jackson’s had a playoff berth sewn up for months, courtesy of their 1st half title in the Southern League, and Clinton clinched a spot in the Midwest League playoffs weeks ago too. Everett shook off an average 1st half to run away with the Northwest League’s 2nd half title. As I mentioned the other night, the Arizona League M’s made it into the playoffs as well, and they clobbered the AZL Reds to advance to the semi-finals against the Angels. We don’t talk about them much, but even the M’s Dominican Summer League team got in on the action, running away with the DSL South division.
That leaves one team that’s yet to clinch a spot in the postseason, the Tacoma Rainiers. That could change tonight, as the Rainiers magic number over Reno is down to 1. A Tacoma win or Reno loss would make it a clean sweep, 7 of 7 affiliates making the postseason. To say that this is a turnaround from last year is a massive understatement, and it’s come seemingly out of nowhere. This organization’s affiliates were in shambles last year, with every affiliate except Everett under .500, and Clinton suffering through one of the worst years in recent memory. That many of these same players are driving these playoff runs is both a testament to some remarkable player development work over very short timelines, and perhaps to the wisdom of some of those minor moves I mentioned above. While Dipoto brought in his fair share of minor league vets and minor trade guys, the vast majority of the improvement has come from the holdovers. If anything, Dipoto’s bullpen trades before the year *subtracted* from the overall talent level in the system, thanks to losing guys like Enyel de los Santos, Erick Mejia, Daniel Missaki, Trey Cochran-Gill, and eventually Chris Taylor. It didn’t matter, thanks to huge years from Tyler O’Neill (as expected, he was named the Southern League’s MVP yesterday), Stefen Romero, Nick Neidert, Art Wells, and Zack Littell.
It’s easy to get carried away with this; great minor league records does not mean that the M’s have the most minor league talent. What it DOES mean is that the M’s are getting more production out of what they had than in prior years. The M’s system isn’t some sort of league-destroying behemoth now, but it’s also evidently not as bereft of talent as it appeared a year ago. Development was a key, in my mind THE key, reason the M’s slipped behind their AL West rivals in recent years, and if these changes persist, the M’s will be in much better position to challenge for the division in a few years. That’s critical, given the gap in young big league talent the M’s need to make up vis a vis the Rangers and Astros.
3: The Arizona Fall League rosters came out, and the M’s contingent is one of their best ever. Tyler O’Neill will head back to the desert (he played a bit in 2015), and he’ll be joined by Luiz Gohara, the M’s #1 pitching prospect. I can’t remember a time in which both the M’s #1 position player and #1 pitcher both appeared in the AFL, but here we are. In addition, they’ll send some intriguing slow-moving prospects in catcher Tyler Marlette (a guy who I can’t quit, even as he’s repeated the Cal League for what feels like the 8th time) and South African command and control pitcher Dylan Unsworth.
The M’s will also send two guys currently on the big league roster: reliever Dan Altavilla, who’s opened some eyes of late with good command and 95mph velocity, and Guillermo Heredia, the speedy OF. Without an instructional league team, the M’s said they wanted to use the winter leagues more this year, and I think it’s great to get Heredia as many games as possible following the long layoff after he defected from Cuba. With Altavilla’s shift to the ‘pen, his workload isn’t as big of a concern, and they can work on things with him in a lower-pressure environment. Filling out the M’s contingent are RP Emilio Pagan, who could be the Dan Altavilla of 2017, and SS Drew Jackson, who had something of a disappointing 2016, but is still a top-10 prospect in the M’s system.
Yoan Moncada headlined the assignments, though it’s not clear that he’ll go, as he was called up by the Red Sox today. Screwballing Rays prospect Brent Honeywell’s probably the best overall pitching prospect on Peoria, but Red Sox fireballer Michael Kopech has the better upside thanks to 100mph velocity. Isan Diaz, a Brewers SS, will be there, along with OFs Eloy Jimenez and Bradley Zimmer, the Indians #1 prospect. The league kicks off on October 11th.
Game 132, Mariners at Rangers
James Paxton vs. Cole Hamels, 5:05pm
The M’s have now lost 6 of 7, and everyone wants to know why. Nathan Bishop’s article at LL notes that the M’s have struggled because they’ve ran into some really good opposing starters, all bunched together – a string that continues tonight, with Cole Hamels on the hill. Greg Johns of MLB.com refines this by noting that the M’s are really struggling against left-handed starters; it’s not just that the M’s have run into a string of top starters, it’s that the majority of them have been southpaws, and for whatever reason, the M’s just don’t do very well against such pitchers.
After reading Johns’ article, I looked at the batting splits at BBREF, and if anything, it’s even worse than Johns thought. The M’s line-up has been much worse against lefty starters than either righty starters or lefties in general. While Robbie Cano, Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez and even Kyle Seager have been solid or better against lefty starters, the drop off from there is severe. Chris Iannetta, Adam Lind-and-Dae Ho Lee, Leonys Martin, Guillermo Heredia and especially Norichika Aoko have all been varying shades of disastrous, and that’s been a big factor in the fact that the M’s are now 20-29 in games started by an opposing southpaw. Lind and Seth Smith were never supposed to *play* in these situations, and guys like Leonys Martin had so many question marks, the fact that we’re only talking about very specific platoon splits is encouraging in itself. But Iannetta (and Zunino too, by the way) and Ketel Marte needed to be better. Marte and Martin are up-the-middle defenders, and that means it’s much harder to think about platoons, so the bat-first platoon guys really needed to step up.
The other factor that I’d bring up to explain the M’s sudden slide is the bullpen. This is all really obvious and hardly needs stating, but here we go: the M’s bullpen was never as good as the group that looked unhittable in early August, and they’re not as bad as the group that’s given up 8 HRs in their last 41 IP. This is what happens when you build a bullpen out of high-K, high-HR hurlers, which seems to have been the plan all along. Because Ks are relatively frequent and HRs are relatively infrequent, they’ll have strings of games where they strike out errybody and keep the ball in the park, and look amazing. Then, some of those balls in play go over the fence, and you get a flurry of gut-punches. The back of the pen is now as good as it’s been in years thanks to Edwin Diaz, but the middle of it goes as Vidal Nuno or Nick Vincent or Tom Wilhelmsen, three of the more predictably volatile relievers you’ll find.
Cole Hamels is putting together another good year for Texas, with a sub-3 ERA despite a merely ‘good’ FIP. Hamels is walking a few more batters, but he’s still a tough match-up for right-handers thanks to his excellent change. That said, he’s been throwing more of his cutter in recent years, and that’s pushed his platoon splits more in the ‘normal’ direction after years of running slightly reversed splits. I’m hoping he’s still atypical enough that the M’s bats that have scuffled against lefties might have a chance, but 1) he’s a very good pitcher and 2) commanding his cutter has made him tougher on left-handed bats like Martin and Cano. We’ll see. His change is still a weapon, but he’s prone to mistakes with it. Righties have a low batting average against the pitch, but they’ve always connected for a fair number of HRs. Just like the M’s reliever corps, he may get some Ks against this M’s line-up, but a HR or two will really change the game.
1: O’Malley, RF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Gutierrez, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Paxton
That’s an…that’s not a great line-up. Nelson Cruz is out with an injured hand, which leads to O’Malley starting at corner OF against Cole Hamels. Marte batting 2nd? I have no idea.
Tyler O’Neill headlines three Jackson Generals named to the Southern League All Star team – the others are Ryan Yarbrough and 2B Tim Lopes. O’Neill’s in the running for league MVP, an award that’ll be announced tomorrow.
The Arizona League playoffs kick off tonight, and the AZL M’s are playing in the league’s first round – the top 2 teams in the league have first-round byes. The team’s lead by CF Anthony Jimenes, 3B Joe Rizzo and SS Christopher Torres.
After losing last night, the Rainiers turn to Sam Gaviglio to beat Fresno and keep the M’s on track to win the PCL north. The game’s at Cheney, so head over if you’re in town.
Jackson’s on a losing skid, punctuated by yesterday’s double header sweep at the hands of the Biloxi Shuckers. Paul Blackburn takes the mound for the Generals as they look to hit the playoffs on a winning streak.
Tyler Pike leads Bakersfield against the San Jose Giants.
Game 131, Mariners at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Yu Darvish, 5:05pm
A week after facing Masahiro Tanaka, Hisashi Iwakuma once again takes the hill opposite a superstar countryman. Yu Darvish missed most of the year recuperating from the Tommy John surgery that he had shortly before the 2015 season, and his absence is one reason why the Rangers have some strange pitching stats on the year.
No team in the game has struck out fewer batters than the Rangers. No team except the Reds has a worse K-BB%. The Rangers’ team FIP ranks 28th. They’ve given up more contact than anyone else in the AL except the Twins. Their *bullpen* ERA is 27th in MLB. The Rangers lead the division by 8.5 games. We’ve talked about it before, but the Rangers are getting pretty hard to explain with the tools we typically use. Their run differential on the year is only +5, far worse than the M’s, and by BaseRuns, they’re actually negative. They’ve outperformed their pythagorean record by 11 games, and outperformed their BaseRuns record by 12. The bullpen has not only been terrible in blowout losses, they’ve given away a number of games (the M’s have been the beneficiary of a few), but at other times have come up huge.
The Rangers line-up has seen two of their cornerstone players, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder felled by injuries – in Fielder’s case, they’ve caused his retirement – and growing pains from their rookies, and it simply hasn’t mattered. This isn’t to say they’re a great offense – the M’s have scored far more runs – but like the pitching staff, they’ve scored runs *exactly* when they need them time and again. None of this sounds all that sustainable, but this is now year 2 of the Weird Rangers, the club with some obvious holes and with a so-so run differential that nonetheless keeps winning ball games.
They’re a much more formidable team in the playoffs than all of the preceding makes them sound for a few reasons. First is the return of tonight’s starter, Yu Darvish, who looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. His velocity is all of the way back, and he’s striking batters out at nearly the rate he did back in 2014. Second has been the deadline acquisition of Jonathan Lucroy, who ended up in Texas after nixing a deal that would’ve sent him to Cleveland. Lucroy leads MLB catchers in WAR, and while the Rangers cobbled together some decent production before getting him, they’ve clearly upgraded their true-talent. Add in the low-key pick up of Carlos Beltran, and the Rangers are clearly a better club than the one that posted a great record in the first half. Let’s just hope they aren’t as lucky.
1: Martin, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: O’Malley, LF
9: Marte, SS
SP: Iwakuma
The Bakersfield Blaze played their final regular season home game last night, as the team will cease operations after this year. I tuned in to hear Dan Besbris’ call, and the Blaze picked up the win, sending fans home happy. It won’t actually be the final game at Sam Lynn, as the Blaze will be in the Cal League playoffs, so here’s hoping that Bakersfield’s final act as a Cal League team is hosting the league trophy. The Blaze built a true Cal League lead of 11-3 with HRs from Justin Seager, Austin Wilson and Chantz Mack and then watched as the bullpen gave much of it away in the 8th, but their closer Thyago Vieira got the job done in the 9th, and the Blaze had an 11-8 win.
Tacoma’d built a big divisional lead, and saw Reno chip away at it, and Reno had taken the first two games in a critical head-to-head series, but Tacoma beat the Aces 4-3 last night to rebuild a 3.5 game cushion.
Cedar Rapids beat Clinton and Vancouver beat Everett, but at least the AZL M’s shut out the AZL Rangers in what we all hope is a foreshadowing of today’s big league game.
Jackson was rained out, which is pretty much the only way to avoid losing to them. They’ll play 2 today. Interesting prospect match-up of Taylor Jungmann facing off with the Generals’ Andrew Moore in game 1.
Tacoma’s Zach Lee gets the start in a big, big game against Fresno, and the R’s need him to post a solid start. Since joining Tacoma, he’s 0-7 with an ERA of 7.04. Fingers crossed. Reno’s in Sacramento.
Game 129, Mariners at White Sox
Ariel Miranda vs. Jose Quintana, 4:10pm
Having vanquished Chris Sale, the M’s now have to deal with an equally formidable (though completely dissimilar) pitcher in Jose Quintana.
Another lefty, Quintana’s done a great job of dominating left handed bats over his career – they’ve got an OBP of .293 in Quintana’s career. But while Sale gets far more K’s and thus strands more base runners, Quintana’s steady excellence produces a similar value. In years like this one, where Quintana’s BABIP or strand rate allow, he allows fewer runs than his more heralded teammate.
He has a change, but the pitch that really allows him to succeed against righties is his curve. It’s thrown at about 77 MPH and, like his fastball, doesn’t show much in the way of eye popping movement or spin. Command obviously allows it to play up, and the result is a pitcher far better than the sum of his velo and stuff.
1: Martin, CF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Gutierrez, RF
7: Lee, 1B
8: Iannetta, C
9: Marte, SS
As you can see, the M’s flurry of roster moves continues, as Dae Ho Lee’s been recalled from Tacoma, with Nori Aoki returning to AAA for a week or so.
Because they needed help in the bullpen, the M’s have also added Pat Venditte, the switch pitcher they traded for a few weeks ago. To make room, they optioned Mike Freeman back down.
They had a spare 40-man spot though, and that leads to the most interesting move: the M’s have purchased the contract of AA reliever Dan Altavilla. Altavilla was an undersized starting pitcher from a small northeastern college, which checks all of the boxes for a McNamara draft pick. He had a solid season in the rotation for Bakersfield last year, but he’s responded well to life in relief, with a FB that touches 95.
Game 128, Mariners at White Sox
King Felix vs. Chris Sale, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day! The King would want you to enjoy today’s game exuberantly, but also with an eye towards safety in this heat.
Last night’s loss hurts, particularly with this brutal stretch of opposing starters coming up. Chris Sale’s K rate is down noticeably since last year, but an improvement in the Sox team defense has done wonders for his BABIP, his Achilles’ heel last year.
1: Martin, CF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Zunino, C
6: Gutierrez, RF
7: Lind, 1B
8: O’Malley, 3B
9: Marte, SS