New M’s blog on the M’s minor leagues: Mariner Minors.
Also new out there:
Sons of Buhner. If you thought I wrote long posts, check these dudes out.
Mariner Optimist. Which neatly divides the Blogosphere into optimist/pessimist camps, which I think (and have gone on about for some length in email) is wrong (on account of… well never mind, no one cares what I think about this…). It’s his blog though, he’s free to list me in the “Cranky Internet Columnist” section if he feels like it.
Which brings up a point: if you’ve got a M’s blog and we’re not pointing to it, there’s one reason: we haven’t updated it yet. Feel free to drop us a note. I’d like to offer more… categorized listings, but generally speaking, updating links is way, way down on our priority list, so it doesn’t get done frequently. Which, uh, is part of why I put off adding links at all for so long, because I knew I wasn’t going to be able to keep up on this stuff. So bear with us.
Someone could actually write a blog about the different M’s blogs by this point. To think that just a couple months ago… (sniff)… I’m just so happy…
There’s a guy in the LA Times recommending that the Dodgers hire Gillick (which would involve a dangerous operation to seperate Bavasi and Gillick, which the Dodgers would presumably pay for) to be their GM. I’d provide a link, but I’m annoyed at the LA Times and their registration policy, which made it hard for me to read the article even though I’d already registered before. In any event – Bavasi’s hinted that Gillick’s been approached before and turned it down, prefering to run the M’s from the shadows like some Sith Lord* but here’s my opinion on this issue:
I’d rather Gillick took over running another AL West team so our 85-win Mariners could have a better shot at the playoffs.
* ObStarWars reference.. sorry, it’s been a while.
Hey, dumb post. I read our email sometimes and think “Why did they send us this link? We posted about this a couple hours ago?” I realized today that that means that many of you, seeing some M’s related story out in the wild, think “Sweet Dave Fleming! Have those U.S.S. Mariner guys heard about this yet?” and mail it to us immediately, without worrying about it, because emailing us is the first thing that pops into your head when you see that stuff.
That’s pretty cool, and I want you all to know that I hope that the work we do here continues to get that kind of respect in the coming season. I was born into being an M’s fan, but I’ve learned to love our readers. Y’all rule.
On a more relevant note — fans of “The Fix” (and I was happy to find there were a bunch) will be disappointed to know that something else (news to follow, maybe) is going on and has kept me from posting the next couple of chapters. More on that when circumstances allow, but I’m trying.
Derek’s World of Lineups
—
A Long Post
I wanted to write a follow-up to Dave’s long lineup speculation eariler.
Here’s your regulars, along with their relevant stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) by 3-year split
C: crap
1b: LH Olerud, vLHP .258/.347/.360 vRHP .303/.409/.486, negative speed, ground ball hitter
2b: RH Boone, vLHP .328/.401/.572 vRHP .292/.345/.510, no speed, ground ball hitter
SS: RH Aurilia, vLHP .283/.329/.531, vRHP .290/.337/.456, no speed, fly ball hitter
3b: B Spiezio, vLHP .281/.356/.406, vRHP .271/.336/.457, some speed, fly ball hitter
LF: LH Ibanez, vLHP .253/.294/.399, vRHP .304/.364/.523, no speed, neutral hitter
CF: B Winn, vLHP .323/.379/.490, vRHP .279/.338/.411, speed, ground ball hitter
RF: LH Ichiro! vLHP .344/.383/.439, vRHP .322/.370/.440, speed, ground ball hitter
DH: RH Martinez, vLHP .281/.438/.542, vRHP .299/.402/.495, no speed, neutral hitter (well.. career, slight ground, last 3 slight fly, last year, slight ground)
Possible bench players:
UT-L Hansen, vLHP –, v RHP .259/.364/.350, no speed, severe ground ball hitter
IF-R Bloomquist, vLHP .286/.350/.390, vRHP .274/.345/.331, some speed, serious ground baller
OF-B McCracken, vLHP .266/.320/.342, vRHP .277/.333/.406, some speed, ground baller
SS-B Santiago, vLHP .197/.245/.250, vRHP .245/.316/.335, massive groudballer
whichever catcher’s not not hitting that day
And just for fun —
Ichiro with runners on — .346/.417/.460
Winn with runners on — .315/.373/.464
So in general: Edgar and Olerud are death on the basepaths, to the point where you want to keep groundballers out from behind them because it’s an automatic double play unless it’s the Yankees on defense. I like alternating L/R matchups, if only because it means that other Melvin-like managers then use their bullpen in the same limited way Melvin does, and you churn through their guys faster (well, slower, because the game crawls, but you know what I meant). So here —
— Versus Righties —
B- Winn
L- Ichiro
R -Boone
R -Edgar
L- Ibanez
R- Aurilia
L- Olerud
B- Spiezio
R/B – catcher
Winn-Ichiro is a toss and you can go either way: Ichiro’s OBP is better, and you want your OBP guys as far up in the order as possible. But the problem (really) is as much as you’d love to have another high average/high OBP man up there, the other high OBP guys are all power dudes, and just putting any of them in the two spot means there’s less of a chance you’ve managed to get Ichiro/Winn around to second in time. Plus if you bat Ichiro second to take advantage of infield positioning, you have to have a speed guy to make the threat viable. This then either lets Winn steal at will or lets Ichiro get hits at will.
Depending on how wedded you are to L-R over the double-play protection, you can flip Ibanez for Aurilia there (which I like, now that I think about it) and get another fly ball hitter, but then you have to do the opposite further down swapping Spiezio/Olerud, and concede more DPs at the bottom of the order. I figured you might as well punt that when you’re looking at having Davis/Wilson come up next. Still, there is an alternative plan:
L-Ichiro!
R-Boone
L- Ibanez
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
L- Olerud
B- Spiezio
B- Winn
(catcher)
It’s a little nutty, but Winn isn’t that hot of a hitter, and this lineup largely preserves L/R and protects against the DP. I don’t like the idea of having Boone play hit-and-run games, though, and it also means that the switch-hitters are grouped low. You could swap Aurilia and Spiezio, depending on how good of a hitter they are these days (the three-year splits… well, we’ll see how Rich does).
The other thing you have to consider is what happens if they bring in a lefty reliever: both Olerud and Ibanez turn into pumpkins, so as much as possible you’d like to have those guys further down in the order or keep them surrounded with huge-anti-lefty weapons, like Aurilia and Winn in addition to the usual suspects, so the opposing manager is forced to burn a pitcher to try and get that one out or they leave the righty in to face Boone/Martinez/Aurilia with the side benefit, for the M’s, of getting Ibanez fewer at-bats against lefties.
And then you can even start to think about the finer points there: is it worth it to try and get that lefty if you can stack Ibanez/Olerud close enough (say, with a lefty-masher between them) that it looks tempting for the other guy to bring in a lefty to face all three, and then when you get to Olerud you pinch-hit Greg Col… oh. Well, never mind, that doesn’t work for us.
— Versus Lefties —
B- Winn
L- Ichiro!
R- Boone
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
L- Ibanez
B- Spiezio (at 1b)
R- Bloomquist (at 3b)
(catcher)
The Bloomquist-Spiezio tandem gets you a little power and (blasphemy, I know) more defense back over Olerud-Spiezio. The slow Martinez gets a fly ball man behind him. If McCracken can play left field well, he’s a decent sub for Ibanez out there, but then you’re forced to figure out how to swap Ibanez back in if a rightie comes up. That’s the whole problem with the bottom of this lineup: you’ve got five mashers and then… what? Ibanez’s bad bat, then Spiezio’s a high-average, high-OBP guy without much power versus lefties, but without the speed to threaten the steal like Winn/Ichiro. Bloomquist has some speed, but before you start entertaining LaRussa-style thoughts of putting together a second offense, the catchers both hit for average, decent, decent SLG versus lefties… you almost want to punt Ibanez entirely:
B- Winn
L- Ichiro!
R- Boone
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
B- Spiezio (at 1b)
(catcher)
R- Bloomquist (at 3b)
B-McCracken/L- Ibanez
If you think Winn’s power v lefties is real, you can swap Spiezio into the leadoff (seriously) and move Winn behind Martinez at #5, putting a switch-hitter between him and Aurilia.
There is an important thing to consider, though, and that’s whether players will take to it. Performance-oriented analysts (like Y.T.) generally scoff at notions like “it takes a special skill to pitch the ninth inning” but if Ibanez is going to be pissy about trying to hide his weaknesses, and Ichiro only wants to bat first, no matter what, and so forth, the team has to weigh whether that unhappiness and potential performance hit is worth it to try for the marginal potential advantage.
The Mariners should offer Pudge a one-year or two deal at something higher annually. The deal Pudge wants is guaranteed to go sour at four years, and almost certainly at three. If you have to go $12-14m next year to avoid paying him $10m in 2007 to be on the DL, that’s a couple million dollars well spent. Fixing that last sinkhole of outs in the lineup would do wonders for the offense, maybe enough to make my constant 85-game predictions look dumb.
I know, I know.
We kid because we care, Jason.
Nope, no trade (at least that I know of). You’ll have to speak with my agent for the official word, though.
Really, though, I started a new job this week and am moving this weekend. Hopefully things will settle down pretty quick.
I’d also like to deny rumors that we’ve been holding Jason out of the lineup because we intend to trade him to the “Sports and Bremertonians” team pending him passing a physical.
Anyone else see that the smart, hip new Red Sox front office signed Tony Freaking Womack? I was honestly stunned, I thought it was a misprint. Womack has been for years the worst shortstop in baseball. He’s at the bottom of the pack defensively, by almost any metric you want to look (which is unusual, for complicated reasons) and he’s awful piled on awful offensively. He makes Ramon Santiago look like a good baseball player. I can see signing a guy like that as organizational filler for AAA, but I understand Womack can get out of his contract if they don’t keep him on the 40-man.
Justin Spiro of the Detroit Sports Net is reporting that Ivan Rodriguez has decided to join the Mariners, and the details that need to be worked out are simply technicalities.
Not that I question the integrity of the great Justin Spiro, but I’ll say flat out that this is just not true. If Rodriguez is still available when Sasaki is officially released from his contract, I would be surprised if the Mariners didn’t talk to him. But, to say a deal at this point is anywhere near done is so far from the truth that, well, I can’t believe it was printed. To borrow a phrase, this is journalistic irresponsibility.
So, Bob Melvin is pondering some line-up changes. Peter White over at Mariners Musings already gave his two cents. I’m still not sure what to make of the Box’s comments, and, considering the value usually derived from quotes at functions like this, maybe we shouldn’t care at all.
However, it got me thinking. Assuming the M’s spend their new found box of gold on a pitcher or two and leave the offense in tact, how should the M’s construct their line-up? Most people agree the clumping method is most effective, stacking your good hitters together to create rallies and letting your out-machines to hack their way out of the 7-8-9 spots. However, there are some more subtle advantages that can be gained by positioning people in the line-up to maximize their skillsets. I believe one of Melvin’s biggest mistakes so far has been getting hung up on an individual players abilities and ignoring the big picture. He does not want to consider Ichiro in center field because he considers him “the best right fielder in the game”, and I think we all know he means defensively. So, rather than considering the possible benefit of acquiring a right-fielder who would have been a vast improvement over Randy Winn offensively, we get to keep Winn in center to best utilize Ichiro’s individual skill package, even if he was more helpful to the team in a more challenging position.
Rather than breaking down the line-up by “who best fits the preset criteria for this spot”, the M’s should evaluate their nine man offense as a whole and look for ways to compliment each players strengths. Ichiro is the best option the M’s have for leading off, but he’s also the best option they have for hitting second. Edgar is the best option for hitting 3rd, 4th, or 5th, because he’s the best hitter on the team. Obviously, choices have to be made, and rather than slotting a player into what you feel his best spot is, match it up with the abilities and limitations of his teammates. So, in that sense, here is how I would roll out the line-up on opening day.
1. Randy Winn, CF, Switch
Ideally, I’d like a higher OBP from my number one guy, but the M’s don’t have the luxary. John Olerud was given consideration for the spot, but I felt that his base-clogging would impede Ichiro’s ability to run, which is a significant part of his value.
2. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Left
As Peter noted, Ichiro has dramatic splits with runners on base. There are several theories for this, but the most obvious explanation is that he benefits from the giant hole that comes on the right side of the infield while the first baseman is holding a runner. Maximizing his at-bats with runners on base is important, and getting him one step away from the bottom of the line-up should help that.
3. Edgar Martinez, DH, Right
Boone could make an argument for this spot as well, but I prefer the high OBP preceding the high SLG rather than the other way around. Both Martinez and Boone kill left-handed pitching, which will discourage teams from bringing in a high-leverage ace lefty reliever to go after Ichiro. I know Ichiro doesn’t have a platoon split overall, but 25 of his 29 career home runs have come against right-handed pitching. I’m more comfortable with him facing a tough righty than a tough lefty in crucial game situations.
4. John Olerud, 1B, Left
This is about maximizing Olerud’s abilities against RHP’s, though I realize it puts a weak hitter into a typical power hitting spot. Olerud was still a force against RHP’s last year, hitting .281/.392/.422 against them. While the SLG isn’t great, he gets on base at a good enough rate to keep the rallies alive. By putting him behind Edgar and in front of Boone, he’ll face a minimal amount of left-handed relievers, and should be able to get a majority of his at-bats against pitchers he still has a chance against.
5. Bret Boone, 2B, Right
Ideally, you’d like to have your second best hitter higher in the order than this, but Boone’s high SLG fits well behind Martinez/Olerud. His lefty-mashing prowess protects Olerud to some degree, and he’ll still get a significant amount of at-bats with runners in scoring position. He’s the best guy to hit behind the base-cloggers, since he’s the most likely to allow them to trot home on a longball.
6. Raul Ibanez, LF, Left
Not my favorite #6 hitter in the American League, but he wins the battle of 30+ mediocrities, especially when playing at home. Hitting behind Boone should assure that a right-hander will usually be on the mound when he comes up late in games. If the opposing manager wants to bring in a lefty to go after Raul, then you live with it, and hope he can come through. Not ideal, but as our readers know, we don’t consider his acquisition ideal either.
7. Rich Aurilia, SS, Right.
Like Boone, Aurilia is a certified lefty-masher. If a team brings in the LOOGY to go after Ibanez, they’re likely only in for one batter, and those strategies can wear down a bullpen rather quickly. Most of Aurilia’s production comes from driving the ball rather than getting on base, so having him lower in the order should maximize his skill set.
8. Scott Spiezio, 3B, Switch.
He could theoretically flip-flop with Ibanez in the six spot, depending on which one proves they can’t hit first. He couldn’t hit lefties last year, but that could have been sample size noise. Either way, sticking him behind Aurilia (and, more importantly, keeping him and Ibanez seperated) is a guard against a lefty ace reliever mowing through several batters and ending rallies.
9. Ben Davis, C, Switch.
By the way, Ben Davis sucked eggs last year. Just thought I’d mention that we’ve noticed, since we stumped pretty hard for him to get more playing time. A .140 second half average? Yech. Anyways, whoever is catching will be the worst hitter on the team and you want to limit their AB’s as much as possible. Sticking them in the ninth spot is the easy call.
The main key would be to make sure that the Box doesn’t simply play cut and paste when regulars are taking the day off. Just because Randy Winn hits leadoff doesn’t mean Quinton McCracken should, just because both have CF penciled in as their position. And, in the end, I’m a bit worried that Melvin’s new professed love for tinkering is going to lead to some overmanaging, but setting the line-up the right way could eek a few extra runs out for a team that will need every single one they can get.