Just a few quick notes on the Future Forty, which you can now find under our orginal features section.
The list was drawn up using my opinions based on in person observations (and I have seen the majority of these players myself), analysis of their statistical track record, organizational feelings toward the player, and opinions from others I respect who have watched these guys play. This isn’t a list of the guys with the most potential, but it also isn’t a list of the guys with the best statistics. I’ve tried to paint as clear a picture as possible of the 40 players in the organization who, as of today, have the most likely shot at success in the major leagues.
I’ll attempt to update the list at the beginning of each month with new rankings and comments. The player names are linked to Baseball America’s player finder page, so you’ll always be able to use those to get up to date stats on the player for the season (and including fall/winter ball from last year, if they participated).
As the season goes along, you’ll see more movement in the lower half of the rankings than the upper portion. There really is little difference between the 23rd and 35th best prospect in the system. At that point, they are all pretty much longshots. I was pretty conservative with recent draftees and other players who will likely be in Peoria or Everett this year. Guys like Terry Forbes, Kendall Bergdall, and Felix Hernandez all possess more potential than others on the Future Forty, but I’ll let them earn their way on once they hit the diamond.
Enjoy.
Minor League Highlights for Thursday, May 1
Tacoma 2, Fresno 1 (11 innings). The two teams played to the exact same score for the second game in a row, but the outcome was reversed this time as the Rainiers came out on top. RHP Brian Falkenborg started (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) but was long gone by the time the game was decided, allowing RHP Scott Atchison to pick up the win in relief (3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 BB). The game’s hero was RF Jacques Landry, who went 3-5 at the plate and drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 11th with a single just moments after failing to bunt pinch-runner Kenny Kelly from second to third. In the top of the 10th, Landry threw out a runner at the plate to keep the game tied. CF Chad Meyers reached base three times with a single, a double, a hit-by-pitch and also scored Tacoma’s first run of the game.
In off-the-field news, there’s a story in today’s Tacoma News Tribune about the Rainiers possibly moving to Texas. Reid Ryan, son of Nolan Ryan and president of the Round Rock Express of the AA Texas League, would like to lure a AAA team to Round Rock by 2005. He recently got approval from the city for $1.6M in stadium improvements which bring Dell Diamond Stadium up to AAA standards, and the Rainiers have been for sale for nearly three years. Seeing as the Rainiers are the only AAA team currently for sale, this would seem to be a good fit.
San Antonio 8, Wichita 4. Welcome back Chris Snelling! Everyone’s favorite Aussie LF returned to action last night and did not disappoint, going 2-4 with a single, a double, one run scored and one driven in. He also reached on a hit-by-pitch and was throw out trying to steal — perhaps a sign that he’s not afraid of being aggressive on the bases? 2B Luis Ugueto has three hits, and CF Michael Curry and 3B Justin Leone each had two apiece as the Missions won their 12th game in a row. The only bad news to report is LHP Travis Blackley, who lasted just 1 2/3 IP and put up a very strange line (0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 7 BB, 3 K). RHP Josue Matos picked up the win with a hitless relief appearance (4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K).
Inland Empire 8, San Jose 1. The 66ers pounded out 13 hits and held San Jose to just five, mostly behind the strong pitching of LHP Troy Cate (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K). RHP Emiliano Fruto, who has struggled as a starter this season, worked the final inning (1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) and may have lost his spot in the rotation to LHP Glenn Bott, who is scheduled to start tonight. Offensively, the 66ers were led by three hits by 2B Ismael Castro and two each from CF Greg Jacobs, 3B Hunter Brown, C Luis Oliveros and SS Eriberto “Eddie” Menchaca. Jacobs, Oliveros and Menchaca each drove in two runs.
Wisconsin 4, Dayton 2. The Timber Rattlers won their 8th straight game Thursday, this one a soggy affair which featured an hour and twenty-one minute rain delay with two outs in the top of the 4th. RHP TA Fulmer started (3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K) but gave way to RHP David Viane, who wound up getting the win (4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), after the delay. LHP Oscar Delgado worked the final two innings (2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) for his first save of the year. Wisconsin got two hits each from 1B Jon Nelson and DH Christopher Phillips, and SS Michael Garciaparra went 0-4 to drop his average to .171 on the season. Talk in the organization is that Nomar’s brother has two weeks to get his act together and start hitting, or else he’ll be shipped off to extended spring training for the time being and then sent to Everett when the Northwest League starts up in June.
Not that I disagree with you, Derek, but we should at least consider the competition.
Mussina’s competition:
Ichiro: .636 OPS
Winn: .658 OPS
Boone: .902 OPS
Martinez: 1.002 OPS
Olerud: .867 OPS
Cameron: .716 OPS
McLemore: .668 OPS
Cirillo: .524 OPS
Wilson: .767 OPS
Fearsome it isn’t.
Pineiro’s competition
Soriano: 1.121 OPS
Johnson: .998 OPS
Giambi: .692 OPS
Williams: 1.043 OPS
Matsui: .677 OPS
Posada: 1.003 OPS
Ventura: .822 OPS
Mondesi: 1.093 OPS
Wilson: .511 OPS
The top 4 hitters in last nights game belonged to the Yankees. New York’s offense is a juggernaut, and for Pineiro to hold them to two solo home runs in Yankee Stadium is impressive, strikeouts or not.
Petty complaint of the day: this frequent use of the word “masterful” to describe starts. If a pitcher goes 8 innings, strikes out one guy, gives up, say, a hit an inning and a couple of walks, that’s not masterful if it results in 0-2 runs. It’s lucky. You’re seeing a lot of balls hit badly and the defense making up for it. Take last night’s start, for instance. Mike Mussina (who is throwing pitches that are frankly better than anything I think I’ve seen from the M’s starters all year) went 8, allowed 6 hits, walked none, and struck out 9. So he faced 30 batters, and struck out almost a third of them. Of the remaining 21 who put wood-to-ball, 6 of those put the ball in play and got through for hits.
Meanwhile, Pineiro went 7 innings, allowed 7 hits, walked 2, struck out 2, and gave up two home runs. In his 7 innings, he faced 30 batters too, and 26 of those put wood-to-ball, 2 into the stands. Of the 24 guys who put the ball in play, 7 got hits. So Pineiro and Mussina saw about the same hit rate on balls-in-play. The difference was that Mussina didn’t give up the home runs, he didn’t walk anyone, and a third of the guys that approached the plate got to turn around and sit down without having taken a swing.
Not every start has to be the best start ever, or a terrible start. I understand that particularly in broadcasting there’s a desire to go to superlatives like that, but if you call every rock a diamond, what do you call it when Meche throws a perfect game in late August?
It’s me, Jason, again. I’m pleased to report that the Big Board, otherwise known as the complete organizational depth chart, has been both updated and enhanced. Updated in that it includes Kazuhiro Sasaki on the DL, Rafael Soriano being called up from Tacoma, Chris Snelling reporting to San Antonio and various other little changes that you’d have to be a real die-hard minor league fan to notice. Enhanced, in that it now contains a link for each player. Clicking on the name of a minor leaguer, Clint Nageotte for example, will now take you to his stats page at Baseball America. Clicking on a major leaguer, for example John Olerud, will take you to his player page over at ESPN. This should make it easier for you to check in on what various players are doing, without having to type in each URL individually. Hey, we aim to please here at the U.S.S. Mariner. Enjoy!
Hi everybody, Jason here. As you may or may not know, we’ve been having some trouble with our archive pages. Basically, nothing after April 15th was making it to the archives for some reason. I believe we’ve fixed the problem, but if you’re still having trouble with something please drop us a line. In the meantime, feel free to browse the archives to catch up on the early days of the U.S.S. Mariner you may have missed. If you haven’t read it yet, it’s new to you!
Here’s the humor in last night’s pinch-hitting stupidity: It is *exactly* the opposite of Melvin’s line in the “Bob TV” commercial:
Melvin: Come on, pinch-hit Mabry!
Dave: Look pal, this guy has thrown one strike and it left the park the fast way. If I bring in Mabry, they’ll bring in a left-handed pitcher, which defeats the purpose. Plus, Colbrunn had hit both righties and lefties well his whole career. Any questions?
Melvin: Um, no, Dave.
Dave: And tell the Moose he sucks.
Minor League Highlights for Wednesday, April 30
Fresno 2, Tacoma 1. The Rainiers wasted RHP Jeff Heaverlo’s best (and longest) outing of the year (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K), scoring their only run on a C Pat Borders sac fly in the 1st. Heaverlo left with a 1-0 lead, but RHP Aaron Looper (2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) coughed it up in the top of the 8th and took the loss. 2B Chad Meyers had two of Tacoma’s six hits and also stole a base, and CF Adrian Myers stole two bases and scored the club’s only run.
San Antonio was idle, as the entire Texas League had the day off. The Missions will take their 11-game winning streak to the field today in Wichita, with LHP Travis Blackley getting the start. Also joining the team today is top outfield prospect Chris Snelling, working his way back after last season’s ACL tear. OF Chuck Lopez was released to make room on the roster.
San Jose 8, Inland Empire 7 (10 innings, DH Game 1). Just what you want in the first game of a double dip — extra innings. The two teams were scheduled to play just seven innings, but it took ten to decide this one. LHP Justin Blood (1 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) took the loss in relief when he gave up a run in the bottom of the 10th, and starter LHP Jared Thomas was both wild and ineffective in his starting role (2 1/3 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K). Offensively, the 66ers got three hits from 1B John Castellano and two hits each from LF Shin-soo Choo, CF Greg Jacobs and C Luis Oliveros.
Inland Empire 2, San Jose 1 (DH Game 2). The 66ers came back to take the second game in San Jose behind the strong pitching of RHP Cha Seung Baek (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K). Baek has pitched quite well this season after missing much of the last two years with injuries, and now has a 3.43 ERA and stellar 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. Speaking of stellar strikeout-to-walk ratios, LHP Ryan Ketchner worked the final two innings (0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) to pick up his first save. Ketcher has fanned an eye-popping 33 hitters in 21 1/3 innings — nearly 14 strikeouts per 9 innings — against just three walks. I’m tempted to say they should let him start, but he’s pitching so well out of the pen right now it’s hard to suggest a change.
Wisconsin‘s game against the Clinton LumberKings was cancelled due to heavy rains, putting the Timber Rattlers’ seven-game winning streak on hold for another day. The two teams announced that there would be no makeup game. RHP TA Fullmer gets the start today as Wisconsin takes on Dayton.
I know this is boring, but… very well said. I have nothing to add.
Mabry for Colbrunn doesn’t many any sort of sense, and no way should Carrara be pitching in that situation.
I haven’t seen every game this year, so it is possible Melvin has managed a worse game strategically, but I’m going to assume that this is his first truly awful game as a rookie manager. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, he could be trying out the whole manage-by-gut-feeling theory. Hopefully, after a few more instances where it goes terribly wrong, he’ll just start making the wise choices and tell his feelings to take a hike. I’m really not sure the last two innings could have been handled much worse.
Top of the 8th:
Acevedo comes in the game and gives up a home run to Boone, than walks Martinez and gives up a hard single to Cameron. At this point, it is rather apparent that Acevedo has nothing this evening and with Chris Hammond warming up, its only a matter of time before Joe Torre makes a move. With lefty-mashing Greg Colbrunn due up, Torre is likely to let Acevedo face one more batter.
At this point, Melvin makes the worst substitution possible. He removes Greg Colbrunn (career .290/.340/.461 hitter) for John Mabry (career .271/.324/.407 hitter). The career totals actually understate the difference, as Colbrunn has been much better than his total numbers the past three years. Regardless, this isn’t the worst part of the move. By inserting Mabry into the game, Melvin has invited Joe Torre to bring Chris Hammond in to pitch, giving the Yankees a better pitcher on the mound in a crucial situation.
It gets even better. You know what John Mabry has done vs left-handers the past 3 years? In 65 at-bats, he’s hit .123/.159/.185 for a robust .344 OPS. Those numbers would make Mabry one of the worst hitting pitchers in major league baseball. Even Jeff Cirillo would call that stretch a slump. Had he left Colbrunn in, Acevedo would have likely faced him. Colbrunn hit .317/.398/.531 versus righthanders the past three seasons. Had they gone to Hammond, all the better. Colbrunn whacks them to the tune of .313/.387/.566, including a .368 average vs lefties last season.
Essentially, Bob Melvin pinch hit the equivalent of Joel Pineiro for the equivalent of Edgar Martinez. At no point should a major league manager take such a leave of his senses to where any gut feeling would override the obvious fact that this is simply a horrible tactical move. This is probably the single worst managerial substitution I have ever seen.
Predictably, Mabry went on to fly out to left. Honestly, I was just thrilled he didn’t hit into a double play.
We rally, get a few runs, and now trail by one.
Bottom of the 8th:
You’re down by one run in Yankee Stadium. Jeff Nelson hasn’t pitched in two days. Arthur Rhodes threw 5 pitches yesterday and had the day off before. In the past 7 days, he’s thrown 2 1/3 innings. Shigetoshi Hasegawa pitched an inning yesterday, but had 4 days off before that, and is clearly available. So, Bob Melvin goes with Giovanni Carrara.
Coming into the game, the league was hitting .286/.368/.367 against Carrara and he’d allowed 20 baserunners in 13 1/3 innings pitched. His ERA hides the fact that he simply has been an average reliever to this point, and he’s the fourth or fifth guy in the bullpen, depending on how much you like Julio Mateo. Predictably, Carrara gets hit, gives up 3 runs, and we have to use Hasegawa anyways. We then score what would have been the game tying run off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th, but end up losing by 3.
On Tuesday, Melvin used his 1st and 3rd best relievers to protect a 6 run lead. On Wednesday, he used his 5th and 3rd best relievers while down by 1 run. Come from behind wins count just the same as wins where you protect the lead. Saving your best relievers for games where you have the lead is an easy way to throw away several games in the standings.
Its just one game. Melvin’s only been a manager for a month. Everyone is allowed to make mistakes. The important thing that needs to come out of this game is for Bob Melvin to realize he made mistakes, and he made them in bunches, and it cost the Mariners a very winable ballgame. If this makes him a better manager down the line, than its worth it. If Bob Melvin continues to pinch hit John Mabry for Greg Colbrunn in critical situations and use his bullpen as inefficiently as possible, the Mariners already tough odds of reaching the playoffs will become nearly impossible to overcome.