Position Roundtables: Starting Catcher
We’re launching our 2005 season preview today, but taking a slightly different approach that we think you all will enjoy. Over the next 50 days before Opening Day, we’re going to writeup a roster spot every other day with the thoughts and feelings of myself, Jeff, Peter, Jason, and Derek on the players who are likely to fill that role with the club. Consider it 25 mini roundtables. We’ll do a position every other day from now until April 3rd. We launch today with the Starting Catcher. Enjoy.
Dave: Starting Catcher: Miguel Olivo
The Mariners acquired Olivo in the Freddy Garcia trade to be the catcher of the present and future, but his poor performance in the second half of 2004 has left the starting job up for grabs. Olivo’s track record is all across the board in both the minors and the majors, but he’s shown flashes of ability and the potential for league average production is there. He’ll need to cut down on the passed balls in order to insure his playing time, and if he struggles, he could easily end up as Dan Wilson’s caddy. The range of Olivo’s possible production is vast, and his performance is one of the main uncertainties heading into 2005. Dave’s Projection for 2005 Olivo: .270/.320/.420, 350 AB.
Jason: I like Olivo a great deal; I was probably more excited that he was in the Garica trade than I was about Jeremy Reed. His .233 average last season makes his overall line look ugly, but there’s reason for optimism — better than 45% of his hits went for extra bases. Offensively, he needs to get back to drawing walks like he did in the minors, where he was right around the “10% of at-bats” mark, and the rest of his offensive game will come. He certainly runs well for a catcher, too.
Defensively, he seems to have a strong arm and quick enough release that the running game isn’t a problem. Obviously he needs to cut down on the passed balls (nine in 49 games after the trade), but he seems like a good enough athlete that this shouldn’t be an issue with work. Didn’t he hang out with Roger Hansen this winter to work on his defense?
I think Dave’s projection is pretty good, but I’ll go out on a limb and say he manages 400 at-bats under a new manager who perhaps isn’t as tied to Dan Wilson. I also think he’ll hit for a bit more pop… put me down for .260/.320/.440 and 15 homers.
Jeff: Like Jason, I’m bullish on Olivo. With JMB summarizing the “pro” side aptly, though, it’s devil’s advocate time for yours truly: here’s why I’m a little worried.
Olivo hit .233 last year, but hit just .200/.260/.387 after coming over in the trade. It was just 160 at-bats, but the drop-off of more than 100 points of slugging makes me wonder about his right-handed bat in Safeco. He’s just 26 years old, should improve, and I hope he will — but he’s just two years young than Ben Davis. The next year or two will be key if he’s going to establish himself as the answer at catcher.
That said, I’ll point that my compadres’ respective projections are just a hair’s breadth more optimistic than the PECOTA system’s forecast for Olivo (.247/.308/.418 in 307 at bats). I for one am hoping for the great leap forward.
Jason: That slugging dropoff was all batting average, though — after the trade, a full 50% of his hits (16 of 32) were of the extra-base variety. And if we want to talk even smaller samples, 10 of his 21 hits at Safeco last season (93 at-bats) were extra base hits.
Dave: Jason’s right on this one. I wouldn’t really be concerned with Olivo’s power. The legitimate concern is whether he’s going to make enough good contact for his power to be useful. His track record is all over the board. He hit .305 in Modesto in 99, then just .282 repeating the league the next year, than .259 in Double-A in 2001, but then hit .306 repeating the league in 2002. Then he hit .237 with the White Sox as a rookie, .270 with them in his second year, and .200 with us after the trade.
Basically, he could hit anywhere from .200 to .300.
Jeff: Agreed on both counts: power v. contact and Olivo’s inconsistency. An additional point that might be worth noting, though, is the dramatic platoon splits he’s shown. Even when he struggled in 2004, Olivo was able to brutalize left-handed pitchers. This is true over the past three years as well: in almost 650 total at bats, his OPS against lefties is .917, compared to .594 against right-handers.
When watching Olivo, it seems like he really struggles with breaking stuff from right-handed pitchers. I seem to see him bailing out a lot, which undoubtedly leads to a lot of those strikeouts and failed attempts at contact. It’s certainly too early to start talking about him being a platoon player, but I’ll be disappointed if the Mariners face a southpaw and he isn’t starting.
Dave: Small sample platoon splits can be misleading, but I think Jeff’s right in his analysis of Olivo’s past approach. The Olivo I’ve watched, both in Chicago and Seattle, has been a pure fastball hitter who really struggles with offspeed stuff. After the trade, he was a classic mistake hitter, only hitting pitches where the ball was in his wheelhouse, but desperately flailing at everything anyways. It will be interesting to see if his approach is different at all in 2005, as it’s hard to believe that’s the style he used to get himself to the major leagues in the first place, so the talent to be a less hackier version of his 2004 while retaining the power should be in there somewhere.
Peter: Olivo for career: 4.12 PA/K
Olivo ’04 w/Chicago: 5.38 PA/K
Olivo ’04 w/Seattle: 3.16 PA/K
So while Olivo went all Tasmanian Devil on us swinging
at anything and everything like it was a nervous tick
once he arrived in Seattle, he had been relatively
patient (for him) previously, and we can see his
season totals reverting to the mean.
On the other hand, Olivo had the mother of all funks
last September. Why? Did he mentally check out once
the M’s were done in August? Did aliens take over his
body? Did Melvin and Molitor tinker with his swing? Is
his vision okay? Did Dan Wilson defecate on Olivo’s
Joe Boo shrine?
Between September 4 and 28, he collected one hit (an
infield single) and one walk in 39 at bats. He struck
out 22 times, at least once in each game he started.
In 4 of those 11 games, he struck out 3 times.
According to ESPN’s game logs, 19 of those 22
strikeouts were of the swing-and-miss variety. (For
those scoring at home, Zito, Dotel and Hudson of
Oakland performed the amazing feat of freezing Olivo.)
Olivo’s ability to become a starter for any major
league team depends upon his discernment at the plate.
For his career, his OBP/SLG once he falls behind in
the count is .240/.326. Not a bad scouting report for
the opposition: Feed him a first pitch strike and then
you’ve got a better than 3-in-4 chance of setting him
down. But after a first-pitch ball, his numbers are
.336/.490.
Perhaps Mike Hargrove and Don Baylor can make some
kind of positive influence on Olivo’s approach at the
plate. I certainly hope so.
Why the Mariners will win the World Series
The Mariners will win the World Series this year. Mark it down. Check your geeky sabermetric alphabet soup at the door. I have a legitimate hypothesis.
So back at Christmastime a year and a couple of months ago I persuade my Yankee-lovin’ sister to get me a Red Sox hat. I have my reasons for my admiration of the Red Sox, but fear not–it’s nothing more than that: A Platonic admiration. For real. We’re just friends.
And then Christmas morn I open the box. I’m delighted. I unfold it, put it on. Now, my Seattle hat that fits like a glove is a 7-3/8. This Sox cap has to be at least a 10, as the bill is drooping over my nose. I feel like a little kid trying on dad’s cap. I check the size tag, and there you go, it says 7-3/8. Something’s fishy.
Sarah (that’s my Yankee-fied sister) feels terrible as she’s the empathetic, perfectionist sort. At least, I don’t think I heard any sinister giggles from her direction. That wouldn’t be completely out of character for her. We go to the mall. Exchange the cap for a style more suited to my small head. And everyone goes home happy.
Until a couple of days later, when after wearing my new Red Sox cap for a day or two, my forehead breaks out. A huge, nickel-sized collection right in the middle of my forehead. A friend asks what I bumped my head on. So I confront Sarah: “Did you curse my hat?”
Sarah: “Nope. It was the Bambino.” That’s a direct quote.
And then the Red Sox win the World Series.
So what do I ask for this past year for Christmas from the sweet sister? A new Mariners cap. What is it when I pull it from the box? Only 14 sizes too big. So again, we’re off to the mall where there in Tulsa, OK they have an entire wall of New York Yankee hats, floor to ceiling, of assorted styles and colors, most never intended for baseball apparrel. One may have even been edible. I can’t remember. After much searching, I finally discovered the corner of the store containing the single Mariner cap they have available. It’s the same gray one I have in my hand. Not acceptable.
I eventually found what I wanted on the store’s website. My retro ’77 Seattle hat came in the mail a couple weeks back. You can bet that once it’s warm enough, I’ll be sporting it day in and day out through the season in support of my Mariners and explaining to the good, simple citizens of Kentucky where I live just what exactly that yellow pitchfork-looking thing is. And doing it all happily.
Because it means the Mariners are winning the World Series this year.
Yum!
Schilling donates bloody sock to Hall of Fame
Think about how much this thing would go for on eBay!
More Mariner Chat
This time with the P-I, which offers an online Q + A with John Hickey Thursday at noon.
Mariners sign Jorge Campillo
Thanks to reader Rulo Montero (dude, I trailed to email you back, but your inbox is full), we were given the heads up that the M’s have, for all intents and purposes, agreed to a contract with 26-year-old RHP Jorge Campillo. Campillo starred for Culiacan of the Mexican League last year, posting a 2.05 ERA in 87 innings, walking just 17 batters compared to 62 strikeouts. International scouting supervisor Matt Stark obviously saw something he liked, as the M’s have signed him to a minor league deal and he will be invited to spring training, though I doubt he’ll be given a serious chance to make the 25-man roster. San Antonio or Tacoma seem like more likely destinations.
Information on Campillo’s stuff is a little more scarce, and none of my regular go to guys have anything on him. From reports gathered via the web, he sounds like a control artist who lacks great velocity, but he’s obviously found some way to get people out in the extremely hitter friendly Mexican League. We’ll keep digging around and see if we can’t get a little more information for you guys, but I wanted to let you know about this signing, especially since it doesn’t appear that anyone else has picked up on it yet.
Also, big thanks to J from Mariner Minors for doing a lot of the legwork on the research end.
Behold the power of green tea
Good news for non-steroid users: green tea extract boosts athletic performance, for endurance exercise anyway. A new study shows an 8-24 percent increase in swimming time-to-exhaustion in mice being fed the extract.
“Now that even baseball players may need to seek new, more natural performance aids,” the story asks, “will Japanese green tea sets become standard in dugouts and athletic training tables around the world?”
Humans of around 165 pounds would have to drink four cups a day to get the same effect. I’m off to make cup number one and ponder whether Shigetoshi Hasegawa switched to Earl Grey last year.
Spring has sprung … for Roberto Petagine, anyway
It might be snowing in Bellingham, but it’s spring training somewhere. Ichiro has started taking batting practice with his old team, the Orix Blue Wave, on Miyako Island in Okinawa. Thankfully, he’s preparing to return to the Mariners, not to go back to the old stomping grounds.
One player who isn’t going back to Japanese baseball, either, is Roberto Petagine. A free agent whose two-year deal with Yomiuri just expired, USA Today’s Rod Beaton expects Petagine to sign with Boston.
You may remember Petagine as the guy who stunk for parts of five U.S. seasons (and just over 300 total at-bats). After his year 27 season, he departed to the Yakult Swallows and promptly became one of Japan’s top sluggers.
Petagine hasn’t had the best reputation in Japan lately, since he’s demanded (and received) special treatment for himself and his wife, 57 year-old Olga. The Yomiuri Giants and the Petagines have slung some mud back and forth, with Olga criticizing team management and Giants staff basically saying Petagine is a washed-up has been with bad knees.
[Yes, he’ll be 34 in June, and she’s 57. When I was in Okinawa last summer, I watched an entire 10-minute segment of a Japanese baseball show devoted to — no joke — making fun of Petagine for having an old wife. Now that’s television. The Petagines seemed to basically laugh it off, though, so good for them.]
Judging by Petagine’s 2004 season, there may be something to the Giants’ claims. After posting slugging percentages of .600 or better for five straight years, the lefty’s numbers fell a precipitous 122 points. That’s a lot of slugging.
Don’t feel sorry for Petagine, since he made enough money in Japan to buy the Japanese TV station that made fun of his wife and then have everyone there fired, but his prime years over there indicate he could’ve been a top-shelf player on this side of the pond as well. Compare his age 28 season to Hideki Matsui’s:
Matsui – .334/.461/.692
Petagine – .325/.479/.677
Matsui’s three years younger, much healthier and plays better defense, so I’m not at all saying that Petagine will be even close to the player Matsui is. There’s virtually no chance of that. This just gives you some idea of the kind of player he was.
So what will he give the Red Sox, if they indeed end up signing him? According to Beaton, Boston isn’t counting on him for anything more than to “be a left-handed bat in left field and and come off the bench as an ideal successor to the departed Doug Mienkiewicz. [sic]” That’s not at all too much to expect from an offensive production standpoint, and though he’s lead-legged in the field, Petagine could be a valuable reserve.
I really like this thinking on the part of the Red Sox. Considering the cheap, near risk-free deal Norihiro Nakamura just signed with the Dodgers, I can’t imagine it would take much to sign Petagine. This is the type of minimal risk option that solid teams pursue.
Looking over at the Big Board, too, one can’t help but notice the absence of any left-handed bench bat that you’d like to see … well, come to bat. Conversely, if Petagine ends up working out, he could be a counterpart to the right-handed Bucky Jacobsen.
The Red Sox are right to consider Petagine. I hope the Mariners also take a look at him.
The Magglio deal
The Tigers are reportedly going to announce the signing of Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million contract on Monday. You may remember Ordonez from earlier in the offseason, when there were rumors he’d have to settle for a one year contract after skipping out on his workout to prove to teams that his knee-you know, the one he flew to Europe to have experimental surgery on-was sound and would allow him to play. Or, you may remember Ordonez from his .292/.351/.485 line from 2004, which when translated for park effects, gave him a .281 EqA. Other corner outfielders who posted similar EqA’s last year include the immortal Craig Monroe, Jayson Werth, Dustan Mohr, and Charles Thomas. For a Mariner comparison, Raul Ibanez’s EqA was .291 and Randy Winn’s was .281.
But, that’s not really fair to Ordonez, right? He was hurt, after all, and from 2000-2003, he was remarkably consistent, posting EqA’s between .292 and .313. In 2003, he was more similar to guys like Dmitri Young, Trot Nixon, and Aubrey Huff. Unfortunately, Ordonez just turned 31, so his best days are most likely behind him, and we can expect him to decline from his peak value a bit.
In other words, even if he was healthy, we’d expect to him to be a little worse than the Nixon/Huff group of hitters, more comparable to Ibanez or Kevin Mench or Rondell White. And the Tigers just gave him a contract worth more than what Vladimir Guerrero received last offseason, more than J.D. Drew or Adrian Beltre received this offseason.
This isn’t just the worst deal of this offseason. This might be the worst free agent signing ever.
No Astacio
The Rangers signed starter Pedro Astacio to a one-year, $800K deal yesterday. I only mention this because his name had popped up here and there in connection with the M’s. It’s worth noting that after making 31 starts and pitching 191.2 innings back in 2002, he’s only worked 45.1 inning since. This is a guy with a ton of mileage on his arm who’s less than two years removed from shoulder surgery. Also, he’s not very good. In other words, I’m glad the Rangers signed him and not the Mariners.
Of Arms and Two Men, Ichiro and Vlad
After picking on productive-out pusher Buster Olney by proxy below, it seems appropriate to point out that he’s selected Ichiro’s right arm as the most accurate in the majors.
This comes as no surprise after reading Eric Neel’s piece from yesterday on the strongest arm in baseball, which he said belongs to Vlad Guerrero. But Neel also said this:
In fact, [A’s third base coach Ron] Washington says, sometimes smart is running on Guerrerro. As powerful and aggressive as he is, his lack of accuracy makes him beatable. A guy like Ichiro will almost always read the situation, make a determination about whether to let fly or not. Guerrero on the other hand, tends to throw first and ask questions later.
“Vlad has a hell of an arm,” Washington said, “but if you talk about accuracy, he’s lacking. He has super power, but he doesn’t always know where the ball is going to go and he sometimes makes unnecessary throws. When I decide if I’m going to take a chance, I’ll take a chance on him before I will on Ichiro.”
Draw your own conclusions about the in-game implications.
Olney’s article speculates that Japanese players like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui have simply practiced the types of throws outfielders need to make in games more than their stateside counterparts have. It’s still customary in Japan to make throws to each base from your outfield position before games start.
The conclusions of the article are hedged a bit, though, since Olney says Ichiro’s most-accurate-arm status is a “consensus among some scouts and executives.”
This is a great phrase that I am going to steal. Isn’t everything a “consensus among some,” as long as more than one person believes a particular thing to be true?
It is a consensus among some that Bert Blyleven should be in the Hall of Fame. So let’s make it happen, Buster!