The Women’s Debate Institute
As some of you know, both myself and DMZ are alums of academic debate. Just found out during an outing to the Aquasox game that Dave is, too.
Please excuse the off-topic post, but if you’ve got a daughter in high school debate, or if you are a girl in high school debate, check out the “More Inside …” Read more
Game 94, Mariners at Blue Jays
The Mariners try to avoid the sweep by sending Joel Piñeiro out to the hill at 9:37 Pacific time. The Blue Jays counter with Josh Towers. Near no-no aside, Towers has been pretty bad over the last few months, giving up 10 hits to the Devil Rays in four innings last time out. We could see another slugfest.
I promise to minimize the wrestling references from here on out. But after seeing the last item in the P-I’s notebook, I’ve got just three (not two) words for you: “World Wrestling Foundation?” Foundation? Is that the organization that puts on Texas Death Matches for needy four-year-olds?
Game 93, Mariners at Blue Jays
RHP Franklin v LHP Gustavo Chacin, 4:07.
Gameday shows Reed playing in center against a left-hander. Cool.
Update
To wash that out, may I suggest the Rainiers at home against Tucson? 7:05, listen on the net to the fine broadcasting of one Mike Curto. Hear Conor Jackson (the draft pick we gave up to the Diamondbacks) and a major-league sequence of hitters whup up on the Rainiers, and the Rainiers whup up on Tucson’s awful pitching.
Random Wednesday news
Snelling’s still with the team. The team decided to keep Hansen on the DL and Snelling traveled to Toronto with the team, though MLB.com reports he flew (!) to Tacoma, hung around for a second, and then had to fly to Phoenix to pick up his passport before joining the team for the series there, though… it’s all really strange and fishy.
The team’s also said that with the turf in Toronto, they may want to get extra rest for one or more of their regular outfielders, which… well, I’m not sure if you want to play Doyle on turf anyway. And as the P-I points out, with a rest day on Monday, that’s not a good reason to keep him on the roster.
Of particular interest, Hansen pretty much said he wasn’t hurt in the Times: “I’m ready and I want to help. They said this helps the team, and that’s what I’m all about.”
It seels a lot more likely that a deal’s in the works for Winn.
Also
- Hot Hand Bloomquist is not feeling so hot, which is why he’s not in the lineup.
- Yankees may be after Winn.
- The PI reveals that Spiezio requested a trade a couple weeks ago.
- The PI also has injury updates on Bucky (close to playing, maybe), Madritsch (working on strength/range-of-motion stuff, not throwing), and Rafael Soriano continues his amazing return from ligament replacement surgery.
- John McGrath at the News Tribune blasts the team for not tearing down, already
- Chance of the M’s reaching the postseason, using BP’s Postseason Odds-o-Tron: 0.18%. Not 18%, 0.18%.
Moyer, the home starter
Dave and I have been kicking this around on our brief, whirlwind tour of Puget Sound-area ballparks: bring Moyer back next year, but make him a home-only starter.
2005 splits–
Home 2.69 ERA, 67 IP, 3 HR, 17 BB, 37K
Away 7.09 ERA, 45 IP, 7 HR, 18 BB, 24K
It’s a relatively recent phenomenon. Three year splits aren’t that far off what you’d expect from park effects (3.77 v 4.07, 337 v 311 IP, 46 v 45 HR, 82 v 97 BB, 210 v 191 K). Even 2004’s splits aren’t that bad.
And ordinarily, I’d point to his one-year split on balls in play: at Safeco, he’s been much better off than on the road. It’s a fluke.
The argument I’m entertaining, though, is that Moyer’s using his defense, which is extremely well-suited for Safeco, and the particular average-punishing (and home run-containing) characteristics of that park to succeed here where he cannot on the road.
Proving or disproving this requires detailed splits I don’t have access to, and I’d probably want to see a lot of hit charts, play-by-play, etc. Oh, if only I were a highly paid consultant for some major league team.
But say you buy it, for a second. It then becomes worthwhile to make Moyer a weird offer. If he’s willing, make him a home starter. Take a flyer on some modest amount of money, for which you schedule him to only start in Safeco Field. Like Houston was trying to do with Clemens, you schedule his starts around homestands, let him stay home and get light, scheduled work in on the side when the team’s on the road (which, obviously, will require some doing).
If it works, you might get half a season of the good Moyer (and a particularly well-rested one, at that), soaking up around twenty starts, and on the road you could even use a long relief/spot starter guy out of the pen to make the mid-series start if it came to that. Looking at the schedule, you can start to see how this might work.
I acknowledge immediately that it’s unlikely to work — Moyer doesn’t have any career milestones that are going to make or break a Hall of Fame case next year (one of x pitchers to record 1,000 strikeouts after age 34…) and if he wanted to start, there might be a team more willing to give him a shot at a steady starting rotation spot. And it’s a roster hassle, requiring the team really work the schedule, and it requires a flexible manager.
And yet… I kept thinking about it. Moyer would get to hang around Seattle, not putting in the brutal travel the team endures, he’d get to pitch in an environment where he’s comfortable, in front of a stellar defense, if it works he looks even better in the twilight of his career (and if it fails… heck, he’s 43). The team takes a wacky gamble that helps a really shaky rotation next year if it works, and at the very least, gives Moyer a chance to bow out as a Mariner, where he’s found the greatest success.
(yes, comments are off, and please don’t respond by throwing off-topic stuff into other threads)
Game 92: Mariners at Blue Jays
How come the Mariners never do anything like this? Tonight at the Toronto Rogers Centre of SkyDome, special guests Roddy Piper, Bobby Heenan and “Mean” Gene Okerlund will be in attendance.
Now that’s a promotion. I haven’t been this jealous since the White Sox had “take your dog to the ballpark” day. Or last night at the Aquasox game, when we watched some kid win a hundred bucks by beating some other kid in a remote control car race. Yes, I know Safeco Field hosted Wrestlemania. It’s not the same.
Naturally, the entertainment at the game will feature an episode of “Piper’s Pit.” We can only hope that Rowdy Roddy cracks Aaron Sele with a coconut and takes the mound himself. Another possibility: Piper shows up in sunglasses and runs screaming at the site of Seattle bullpen.
Failing that, perhaps Heenan will refer to the Mariners as “humanoids.” If they would let Heenan and Mean Gene do the commentary for the game on MLB.tv, I would personally guarantee one more viewer.
It’s just too bad Gorilla Monsoon is dead, or we could do a wholesale replacement of broadcast teams, like a line change in hockey.
Aaron Sele v. Ted Lilly. Random 7:07 p.m. start. Is that 7:05 p.m. in Canadian time? Or are they only giving Roddy two minutes for the Pit? Blasphemy.
Who Stays, Who Goes
It sounds like the wheels of trade are beginning to churn in the front office. Chris Snelling has rejoined the team in Toronto—apparently, there’s an obscure rule about avoiding the 10 day recall window if you never actually reported to your optional assignment, so Snelling never rejoined the Rainiers—and Larry Stone had a piece in the Times this morning about who to keep and who to deal. Since we like Larry, I’m going to use his comments as a launching point for my take.
Eddie Guardado: Keep. It only makes sense to deal Guardado if they have someone ready to plug in, and the Mariners don’t. Guardado is a strength; they can lock him up for next year by picking up a $6.25 million team option. To retain an All-Star caliber closer, it’s worth it.
I disagree. Closers are fungible. We may not have someone who can post a 1.45 ERA in the future, but odds are, neither can Eddie. His peripherals don’t support his crazy low run prevention, and he’s still got the whole injured arm thing. And he’s old. Guardado is the team’s most marketable piece. They can find another closer. Use him to get a legitimate prospect.
Jamie Moyer: Trade. He has been a magnificent performer, an asset to the community, and remains, at age 42, an effective pitcher. But if the M’s can find a team desperate for starting pitching, and Moyer agrees to waive his trade-veto rights for a chance to pitch in his first World Series, it can be a win-win. Besides, there’s nothing to keep the M’s from re-signing Moyer next year.
Again, I disagree. With the no-trade, his big contract, his terrible performances away from Safeco, his age, and his lack of stuff, what are you going to get for him? If you convince him to go to, say, New York, you’re going to get a C level prospect, which the M’s already have a ton of, and you have to deal with the negative press from trading Moyer. The odds of us getting something of real tangible value are low enough that I’d hang onto him. And, as Derek and I discussed the other night, bring him back next year as a home-only starter.
Gil Meche: Keep. The word now is that the Marlins and White Sox, among others, covet Meche. As maddening as he has been, Meche still has a world-class arm and 10 victories to his credit. Plus, he’s just 26. The M’s have invested too much time and effort to watch him blossom into an ace with another team.
Good God no. Move him as soon as you can. A world class arm? Whatever. He’s got decent enough stuff that hitters pound and he can’t throw strikes consistently. His win totals make it look like he’s pitching well, but he’s not. He’s bad. If a team “covets” him, cash in now. He’s the new Brett Tomko.
Joel Pineiro: Trade. Pineiro remains as maddening, and nearly as promising, as Meche, and they’re days apart in age. The same risk exists in trading him, but at this point in Pineiro’s career, with him still struggling to come back from elbow problems, his upside no longer seems as high as Meche’s. If they can get a good package of young talent, it’s a risk worth taking  especially to get next year’s $6.3 million salary off their books.
I agree with Stone in principal, but I think there’s this weird unrealistic school of thought that Joel Pineiro has trade value. He makes $6 million next year, he’s terrible, and his velocity is just gone. Fine, you might find a team willing to take him on as a reclamation project if we pay half his salary and they don’t have to give us anything for him. And I’d probably be willing to do that. But there’s no way we’re getting a package of young talent AND they’re paying his salary. Joel Pineiro is a bad major league pitcher with a big contract.
Raul Ibanez: Keep. Ibanez is a quality left-handed bat, with the ability to play outfield, and a positive clubhouse presence. There’s no reason to deal him.
While I agree that I’d keep him, unless some team really wants him and makes me a nice offer, there are reasons to deal him. But we’ve done this post already, so I’ll move on.
Randy Winn: Trade. At some point soon, the Mariners are going to have to address the glaring lack of power in their outfield. Plus, they have Chris Snelling (not a power threat yet, but definitely a potential impact bat) having earned an extended look.
It sounds like Winn is gone sooner than later. And while we’ve been big supporters of Winn the past year, its the right move.
Ron Villone: Keep. Left-handed relievers are a valuable commodity, and Villone is one of the best around. Replacing him would be harder than you’d think.
No freaking way. Move now. Fine, he’s a fairly valuable middle reliever on a team that has a freaking ton of them. George Sherrill, anyone. Cesar Jimenez. Villone would not be hard to replace for a team that understands the fungibility of relievers. We bought low on Villone and it paid off. Time to sell high.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: Trade. Shiggy did a wonderful job in 2003, but his career appears to be on the decline. If the M’s could get some value in return, they should do it, and groom a younger arm for the job.
Sure. If you can get a live body in return, move him. Shiggy has no value to this team and you don’t want him back next year.
Now, to the players Stone didn’t mention:
Aaron Sele and Ryan Franklin – depends on what you do with the other three starters. You can’t trade the entire rotation. There aren’t enough pitchers in Tacoma to replace more than a couple. Sele and Franklin aren’t going to bring a ton in return anyways, so they’re decent bets to stick around and eat the rest of the 2005 innings. But if you can’t move Meche, Moyer, or Pineiro, trying to redeem either one for a servicable young player would be a good idea.
Jeff Nelson – again, if you move Guardado, Villone, and Hasegawa, you probably need to hang onto him so that the bullpen isn’t a total joke to finish the year. But, if those guys stick around, deal Nelson. He has no future here and could probably bring at least a potentially marginal role player in return.
The Feed and the Long View
I’d like to take a different angle on the Feed — “what does this all mean?”
Short term, it’s a mixed bag, but there’s reason for hope. Take the Garica trade (woo-hoo!). I think they’re realistic, but some of the things I’ve continually harped on don’t seem likely to change (minor league depth to cover for things like the rotation collapse, working free-talent avenues harder, building a complete 25-man roster with useful, fitting parts, that kind of thing).
The most encouraging part was knowing that the team wants to win, but is trying to build a minor league system that can support a sustained competitive team. We talk about stars-and-scrubs, but this is how you want a team to build for a World Series title: develop stars, prospects for trade or who’ll become role-players on the cheap, and use your money to fill the holes around them. Then drink champagne and fly the pennants.
So when they talk about being buyers or sellers, that’s scary, but it’s almost irrelevant. They do want to put wins on the board, and keep people turning out at the park. They’ve got to keep people buying season tickets, and that’s where .400 seasons really hurt their bottom line. If getting to .500 this season requires them to sacrifice (say) Choo, that’s something the ownership’s going to want to go for, and I’m going to scream about.
Read more
Doyle Back To Tacoma
The Mariners have demoted Our Aussie Prospect, thanks in large measure to Derek’s “get the guy at bats” exhortations at the feed. Dave Hansen has been activated.
By the way, thanks to everyone at the feed who, when the “S” word was uttered, shouted “Doyle!” repeatedly, something that I’m sure confused Bavasi, but brought joy and mirth to my heart.
[Registration site: poo@katu.com, password biteme. I’ll put up a non-registration link when one is available. Like this one at the bottom of the Times notebook, and this one from the P-I.]
Bavasi and the Feed
As you’ve almost certainly heard by now, Mariners GM Bill Bavasi spent two hours on Saturday before the game answering questions from the BP/USSM readers in attendance. His candor was remarkable, and he got high marks from everyone in attendance for his ability to simultaneously be insightful, strong, funny, and articulate. For almost everyone there, I’m sure it will be a highlight from a season that hasn’t had many.
As we’ve also mentioned, Bavasi was extremely honest with his opinion of a large amount of players, speaking his mind openly about their strengths, weaknesses, and the organizations take on their abilities. Those comments were made with the understanding that they wouldn’t be published on the site, and we have no problem honoring that commitment, even though we realize this may be a bit frustrating to many of you were not able to attend. We’re sorry about that, but we feel that is the right course of action in this case.
However, Bill was also very forthcoming with regards to the questions he received on baseball theory, player development philosophies, the roles of scouting and statistical analysis, and his methods of player valuation. What follows is both a recap of Bavasi’s responses to his philosophies as well as a look at how our assessment of the organization’s direction has gone since he was hired.