Game 144, Angels at Mariners
Ryan Franklin is pitching. You probably have something more important to do than watch this game.
Rainiers Gamecast
Want to follow the Rainiers as they play Nashville for the PCL title, but can’t listen to broadcaster extraordinaire Mike Curto? Minor League Baseball is offering a gamecast of the playoff series, pitch by pitch. Pretty sweet.
Enjoy.
Midwest League Championship Series
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers vs. South Bend Silver Hawks
GAME ONE, today: Wisconsin (RHP Mark Lowe) @ South Bend (LHP Kellen Raab) 7pm
GAME TWO, WED 9/14: Wisconsin (RHP Aaron Jensen) @ South Bend (RHP Ross Ohlendorf) 7pm
GAME THREE, THU 9/15: South Bend (RHP Koley Kohlberg) @ Wisconsin (LHP Shawn Nottingham) 6:35pm
*GAME FOUR, FRI 9/16: South Bend (RHP Chris Kinsey) @ Wisconsin (LHP Robert Rohrbaugh) 6:35pm
*GAME FIVE, SAT 9/17: South Bend (RHP Steven Jackson) @ Wisconsin (RHP Cibney Bello) 1:05pm
*If neccessary. All times local.
The Silver Hawks have something of a juggernaut offense, having finished first in the Midwest League in batting average, runs scored, and homers. They were 7th in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts by their pitchers.
Wisconsin, meanwhile… well, you look at the team stats and wonder how they got here. Second in team batting average and runs scored, seventh in homers, OK. But 13th in ERA, 14th in strikeouts, and second-worst in walks allowed.
Joel Pineiro, Again
Last night, Joel Pineiro turned in his seventh Quality Start in his last eight tries. The “Joel Is Back” bandwagon is gaining steam. The talk in the local dailies is of his dominance and how well he has pitched lately. Mike Hargrove even proclaimed “This game was probably the best of them all”, which is, to be honest, absurd. As I pointed out last week, Pineiro’s recent performances weren’t one continuous trend, but rather a sprinkling of truly good performances with some mediocre starts and an absolute abomination of a game in Minnesota.
However, the belief is still being perpetuated that Pineiro, since the beginning of August, has had a strong positive upward trend in his performance with just the one outlier in the middle of the month. It’s just not true. Let’s take a look at his game log.
IP H R ER HR BB K BB/BF K/BF FIP 6.33 8 2 2 2 1 4 0.04 0.15 6.52 8.67 7 2 2 0 0 4 0.00 0.14 2.28 8 6 3 3 0 2 4 0.06 0.13 2.95 6.67 13 8 8 1 1 2 0.04 0.07 5.00 6 7 3 3 1 2 3 0.07 0.11 5.37 6.67 5 1 1 0 1 7 0.04 0.25 1.55 8 6 2 2 0 1 5 0.03 0.17 2.33 7.67 3 1 1 0 2 2 0.07 0.07 3.46
Those numbers should be self explanatory. The last number, FIP, is his Fielding Indpendant ERA, which is a far better predictor of how a pitcher is going to pitch going forward than his normal ERA.
Here are his totals for those 8 starts, by the way:
IP H R ER HR BB K BB/BF K/BF GB FB FIP 58 55 22 22 4 10 31 0.04 0.14 79 71 3.54
Walking just four percent of the batters he faces is outstanding. Striking out 14 percent is not outstanding. It’s pretty mediocre, but when coupled with a low walk rate, it can be effective.
I included his GB/FB numbers in the monthly totals as well, because there’s an important data point missing from the game logs. Pineiro has allowed 4 home runs in his last 8 starts, a terrific number, which helps keep his Fielding Independant ERA low. But allowing 4 home runs on 71 flyballs is almost certainly not a repeatable skill; Ron Shandler’s research, confirmed by the Hardball Times, has shown that most pitchers give up home runs on around 11 percent of their flyballs. Pineiro, during his 8 start stretch, has given up home runs on 5 percent of his flyballs. That’s not going to continue. If we added 3 more home runs to his total from his last 8 starts, normalizing for an average HR/flyball rate, his FIP would be 4.22 instead of 3.54. 4.22 isn’t bad. That’s basically 2005 Jamie Moyer. But it’s certainly not dominating.
Joel Pineiro is not “back”. He’s not pitching anything like he was in 2002 or 2003, though his singular start against the Yankees was legitimately terrific. He has basically turned himself into Ryan Franklin, a contact strike-throwing machine who can piece together some good starts when the ball stays in the yard. By nature, these pitchers are wildly inconsistent, because they depend on the opposing hitters to get themselves out.
Joel Pineiro, for his last 8 starts, has been a huge, huge upgrade over the Joel Pineiro we had through the end of July. If he continues to pitch using this strikes-only style, he can help the club, and he might even justify his contract next year. But the reality is that the Joel Pineiro of several years ago is gone forever. This guy isn’t that pitcher. Accept him for what he is, not what we would like him to be.
Game 143, Angels at Mariners
RHP Ervin Santana vs. RHP Joel Pineiro, 7:05pm, KOMO & FSN.
Pineiro goes for his first back-to-back wins since April!
RF Ichiro!
CF Reed
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
“DH” Dobbs
2B Lopez
SS Betancourt
C JoeJessica
Have at it, those of you who aren’t too broken up by the whole Dan Wilson retirement thing.
Dan Wilson to Retire
There’s a press conference that will be held in about an hour where its expected that Dan Wilson will announce his retirement, effective at the seasons end.
Mariner farm system playoff update
The Rainiers stay alive, forcing a game 5 in the PCL first round playoffs. 6:05, available on the net.
Jeff Clement went 3-5 with two home runs in first game of the A-level Midwest league playoffs. Please, baseball gods, let this catching prospect through. Please.
Game 2 of the MWL starts tonight at 7:35. Audio on the net.
Bryan Price roundtable
Pitching coach Bryan Price comes up as a frequent topic in comments and emails, with opinions ranging from hate to seeming indifference. So we at USS Mariner Labs started to toss this around as a roundtable topic, and present for you our discussion. Read more
Game 142, Orioles at Mariners
In many households, men are taking their place on the sofa and spending hours upon hours watching the National….Football….League.
Forget that. Felix is on the hill. Happy Felix Day, everyone.
Game 141, Orioles at Mariners
RHP Rodrigo Lopez vs. RHP Jeff Harris, 6:05pm, KOMO & KSTW.
The Mariners may have mailed it in for the season, but here at USS Mariner labs, we promise a fresh game thread each night!
RF Ichiro!
CF Reed
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
“DH” Dobbs
2B Lopez
SS Betancourt
C JoeJessica (please see the FAQ if you’re confused)
I’d honestly forgotten about Jeff Harris. Talk about tough to please — one bad start and I’ve already moved on.
If there’s one guy to watch for tonight, it’s Baltimore 1B Walter Young. Young is listed at 6-5 and a massive 320 pounds, so it’s unlikely you’d possibly miss him out there. Already 25 years of age and fresh off a .288/.334/.438 season at AAA Ottawa, he really isn’t much of a prospect. And for a guy his size, you’d think he could have managed more than 13 homers in 466 at-bats. But forget all that — I’m most intrigued by how he managed to hit a triple this season. The mind boggles.