Daniel Bard and Andrew Miller
One of the joys about living 2,500 miles from Safeco Field is a chance to see top flight college baseball. Wake Forest University is a stones throw (okay, if Ichiro’s throwing it) from my house, and Wake just happened to be hosting the University of North Carolina this weekend, kicking off the ACC season by bringing the #4 team in the country to my backyard.
UNC is led by two of the best starting pitchers in the country, RHP Daniel Bard and LHP Andrew Miller. Both have been in the national spotlight since their senior year in high school, and not much has changed in the past three years. The 2006 draft is headlined by a strong group of college pitchers, and no team in the country boasts a better pair than North Carolina. Over the weekend, I had the opportunity to watch both and compose some thoughts on a pair of players who should both be rich men this summer.
Saturday was Bard’s turn in the rotation. While he’s a legitimate prospect in his own right, he has played second fiddle to Miller throughout his career. I liked the fact that I got to see Bard before Miller, giving me a better chance to evaluate him on his own merits rather than comparing him to his more heavily hyped teammate.
Bard is listed at 6’4, 202 lbs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the height was fudged by an inch or two. He’s not a big kid, but he’s tall enough to overcome the short pitcher stigma. He throws from a 3/4 slot with solid leg drive and okay mechanics. There’s some unnecessary head movement and his release points weren’t consistent, but he’s in college, so that’s to be expected. There wasn’t anything in his delivery that isn’t fixable, and he’s got the foundation of good enough mechanics.
He came out in the first inning pumping gas. 96, 97, 95, 96, 96, 96, 97, 97. Just a steady diet of four seam fastballs. He clearly believes in the “establish your fastball” mantra. His command was shaky, mostly due to the aforementioned issues with his release point. He missed away alot, and he appeared to overthrowing. After a hit batter, he settled down and started blowing the ball past hitters, including Wake’s star third baseman Matt Antonelli. He busted out a slider that had some diving movement but wasn’t located particularly well. In college, though, an 84 MPH slider with movement after a 97 MPH fastball is good enough to miss bats, and Wake’s hitters were clearly overmatched.
He stuck with fastballs and sliders in the second inning as well, and not long after I mentioned to a friend that he’d have to show a third pitch eventually to show the scouts something, he broke out the curveball. It needs work. It doesn’t spin tight, and he hung a good percentage of them up in the zone. The slider is clearly his go-to breaking ball, and the curve is to show a different look. On the plus side, he did a good job of keeping his arm slot the same on both the slider and the curve, which is a problem for many kids.
His command continued to come and go, but it didn’t really matter. Wake wasn’t going to hit him and he knew it. He fired more 96 MPH fastballs by the weak hitters in Wake’s lineup (and there are some really weak hitters there) and mixed in the slider for the punchouts. The rains started in the fourth inning and pretty much stuck around the rest of the game, but he did well pitching through it and throwing strikes for the most part. He ended up hitting 3 batters, walking 2, and throwing a wild pitch, but you can get away with that when you only give up one hit. Box Score is here, if you’re interested.
Sunday was Miller Time. Come on, you knew the joke was coming at some point. This stuff writes itself.
The reports I’d read on Miller basically made him sound like a typical raw flamethrower; 6’6, mid-90s fastball, control and secondary pitches need work. Chapel Hill’s own Matt Thornton, basically. So, going in, that’s what I was expecting to see.
Apparently, Andrew Miller is tired of hearing it, because he was pretty much the anti-Matt Thornton. He’s tall, yes, but not super lanky, and his delivery is actually a bit lower than 3/4. I’d call it 5/8, but it’s not exactly that either. He doesn’t drop down, but the arm comes out from his body, and his release is certainly in the left hand batters box. He’s going to be murder on lefties with that release point.
Like Bard, he came out throwing fastballs, but unlike Bard, they were all two seamers. 91, 92, 91, 88, 92, 90, 87. His command was off as well, hitting the second batter of the game and walking Antonelli to put a couple men on. So, he busted out a top-down slider that is just pretty much unfair. Coming from his arm slot, it bores in on right handed hitters while having the bottom fall out, and ends up forcing an awful lot of fisted foul balls. He wasn’t using it as a knockout pitch, but it clearly could be.
As the game wore on, he worked in a few four seam fastballs, hitting 93 a couple times, 94 once, and 95 once, but mainly stuck to the two seam variety, getting a ton of choppers up the middle. While the box score won’t show it, he was a groundball machine. There was a lot of weak contact. The first hit off him was a slow roller (struck by the left fielder, who came into the game hitting .147 with aluminum bats. I hope he’s going to class) that went about 40 feet up the line and died for an RBI infield single.
Again like Bard, Miller clearly knew that Wake’s hitters weren’t going to be able to touch him, and he just focused on inducing contact and letting them get themselves out. While the DIPS theory has gained momentum at the major league level, it’s clearly not true in college. You watch guys like Andrew Miller knock the bat out of a kid’s hands and you know that he had everything to do with the weak ground ball.
Miller’s two seam fastball was impressive, his slider lethal, and he varied the speed on his fastballs enough to keep hitters off balance even without a change-up. His command wasn’t great, but he’s clearly not Matt Thornton, or anything like a raw fireballer just getting by on velocity. This kid can pitch.
In the end, Bard and Miller lived up to the hype, pitching 14 innings and allowing only an unearned run (seriously, this run was unearned – two errors and the aforementioned 40 foot single) while just outclassing Wake Forest’s hitters. This wasn’t a competition as much as it was a showcase of superior talent. Wake’s not a great college team, but I’m not sure it would have mattered.
Bard and Miller are vastly different animals. Bard looked like the velocity guy who lights up the radar gun, consistently hitting 97 and showing a good enough slider to miss a lot of bats. Despite the advanced reports, however, Miller’s not a project getting by on arm strength; he’s got a variety of weapons at his disposal and he showed the better idea of how to pitch.
Both have a ways to go; they aren’t polished, major league ready pitchers. But they aren’t supposed to be; they are starting their junior year in college, and there is enough there to like to see why major league clubs are getting excited.
They’re going to be lumped into the same conversation quite a bit this year. You’ll hear Bard and Miller become a phrase much like Laverne and Shirley or Bert and Ernie, but in the end, they’re going to be separated by the draft. At some point, teams are going to have to decide whether they prefer the right-hander with velocity or the left-hander with movement. I liked Miller’s package quite a bit more than Bard, but I wouldn’t cry if the Mariners selected Daniel Bard with the number five pick in the draft, either.
Bugs Bunny, greatest banned player ever
Update 2/21: I found out today from Glenn Stout, the series editor, this has been selected for the 2007 Best American Sportswriting annual! Woo! This makes USSM the first blog and the first non-ESPN.com/Slate site to be so honored.
With the DVD release of "Looney Tunes Golden Collection" it is at last possible for us to examine in detail one of the most famous baseball games ever played, and see what lessons the contest holds for the analytical community.
"Baseball Bugs" (1946) depicts a game held at the Polo Grounds. No date is given, but artifacts shown such as public address equipment and advertisements ("Filboid Studge," "Nox, 2 for 25," "Manza Champagne") definitively place it during the 1946 season. The visiting Gas House Gorillas are playing against the home team, the Tea Totallers. It is a day game and conditions are good.
The first view of the scoreboard shows the Gorillas at 94 runs (10-28-16-40) after the first four innings. This appears to be footage inserted out of order, as we’ll determine later the score then was not 96-0 but rather 54-0. While obviously neither team was a major league affiliate and it is almost certain that the game played is an exhibition, the score is already notable. The total of 54 runs was far more than the previous all-time run scoring record for a team in a game (held by the Chicago Colts, who scored 36 against Louisville in a game on June 29th, 1897), and the score of forty runs in an inning would be significantly above the most runs scored by any inning by one team (18, by the Chicago Colts in the 7th inning on April 14th, 1883).
The stadium is entirely filled, and as we know that the Polo Grounds could hold 55,000 fans in that year’s configuration, it is fair to assume that this was a game of some note, and that the players participating were extremely popular.
We open to see "a screaming liner" hit by the home team. The outcome of the hit is not defined, and the hit itself seems an indicator that the game was not official: the ball appears to be a shade of grey, and makes an almost-human screaming noise as it travels, neither of which was normal behavior for a regulation baseball in play. Since the balls used in the remainder of the game are white, and since we also see that the Teatotallers are a horrible offensive team, it is reasonable to conclude that this footage is from some kind of pre-game hitting contest, or perhaps an entirely different game.
The initial comparison of the teams’s players offers a startling contrast, as well as a further confirmation that this is not an official game. In 1946, baseball was in transition. During the first half of the decade, as the equipment and personnel needs of the war took precedence, baseball had become a slap-and-dash game, characterized by little hitting and little power, but with many stolen bases. After the war’s end, with returning players came plate discipline and power hitting, and almost all of the wartime players were quickly forced out.
This is obvious even in the first shot of the Gorillas pitcher as compared to the Teatotaller. Both wear uniforms without a team name, number, or other identifying characteristics, but they otherwise could not be more different:
Illustration 1: A visual comparison of players
I have summarized major differences in Table 1.
|
Characteristic |
Gorilla pitcher |
Teatotaller batter |
|
Height |
Over 6" |
Apx 5’5" |
|
Weight |
Over 220 lbs |
Under 125 lbs |
|
Uniform colors |
Dark grey and blue |
Light grey and red |
|
Eyeglasses |
No |
Yes |
|
Grey hair |
No |
Yes |
|
Illegally ragged uniform |
Yes |
No |
|
Visible facial hair |
Stubble |
Sideburns |
|
Slouching |
Yes |
No |
|
Smoking cigar while playing |
Yes |
No |
Table 1: A comparison of characteristics of players
Weekend Mariner newsathon
A couple of nice articles in the News Tribune: Lawton’s steroid use, Sexson’s still working on his swing despite a hot start, Bryan Price is working out in Arizona, and the good news on Meche is the strain’s not so bad. I’m not sure what bad news would have been. Just kidding, Gil, just kidding.
From the Times: Mariner pitchers getting hammered. Also, Mateo’s left camp because of a death in the family.
Deja Vu All Over Again
Ah, memories.
First, there’s me remembering what it’s like to post. Second, I seem to recall doing a book signing a few months back with Jonah Keri (for a book I didn’t write, which is kind of cool, like eating nothing but dessert).
Double your pleasure, double your fun, I always say. This Monday Jonah and I are back for a second go-round, and Jonah’s doubling up on the book promotion. He’ll be signing copies of both Baseball Prospectus 2006 and Baseball Between The Numbers. I don’t know if it’s possible to have twice as much fun as I had last time — maybe if Derek shows up.
Third Place Books
Monday March 13, 7 p.m.
I’ll even have a special in-person only, non-baseball related announcement that will excite at least two of the likely attendees.
Appetite whetted? Then let’s have dessert.
Friday Mariner fun
M’s got whupped by the Sox. PI
TNT: Sean Green now has a kid and an invite to camp.
The Times: Lindsay Gulin, Foppert’s blister.
Meche and Pineiro
In life, we like to categorize. We lump things together to lessen the amount of thinking we have to do. Generally, we do this by how much we value certain objects. I might lump Chick-Fil-A, Photoshop CS2, and my Mazda Protege5 into the same “things I’m quite fond of” category, even though there’s no relation between terrific fast food chicken, photo editing software, and my fun new(ish) car.
We do this with baseball players too. I have a group of “my guys”, players like Beltre, Reed, and Soriano, guys I’ve said good things about and who I enjoy watching. We all do it. If you think about it, I’m sure you’ll find that you’ve categorized most of the players on the Mariners, too.
Which brings me to the point of this post. Almost every Mariner fan, it seems, has put Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche into the same category. They’re both perennial disappointments, guys who frustrate with their inconsistencies and who have failed to live up to a level of potential that we established for them. You’ll often see people talk about how the Mariners are counting on rebound seasons from Meche and Pineiro, almost like they’re one entity. As one goes, apparently, so does the other.
Well, I’d like to try to free Joel Pineiro from the clutches of Gil Meche, as much as I can, anyways. It’s odd that I’m now going to bat for Pineiro’s reputation, considering I’ve never been a big fan and always felt that the hype far outweighed the actual talent. But, at this point, it’s pretty much undeniable; Joel Pineiro is underrated by most Mariner fans, and his guilt-by-association pairing with Gil Meche is simply unfair.
Basically, Gil Meche sucks and Joel Pineiro doesn’t.
Lets just take a look at their 2005 seasons, when Pineiro’s ERA was higher than that of Meche, and see just who pitched better.
Innings: Pineiro-189, Meche-143. Winner, Pineiro.
BB/G: Pineiro-2.6, Meche-4.0. Winner, Pineiro.
K/G: Pineiro-5.0, Meche-5.0. Tie. This is as good as its going to get for Meche, by the way.
G/F: Pineiro-1.38, Meche-0.99. Winner, Pineiro.
Pineiro threw more innings, had vastly better control while maintaining a similar contact rate, and managed to induce way more groundballs. Those are all big advantages for Pineiro, yet somehow, Meche posted the lower ERA, and thus, in the eyes of casual fans everywhere, he gets more credit. How did he do it? Simple.
Joel Pineiro didn’t allow an unearned run all season.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone mention this, but it’s staggering. All 118 runs that crossed the plate against Pineiro were charged to his ERA, but 12 percent of the runs Meche allowed (11 of the 92) were ruled unearned, thus keeping his ERA superficially low. As most of you probably know by now, RA actually predicts pitcher performance better than ERA, and letting Meche off the hook for 12 percent of his runs allowed isn’t a very good way to evaluate his pitching ability.
You know that I love Fielding Independant ERA as a way to determine a pitcher’s real value, and the difference here is clear:
Pineiro-4.50, Meche-5.09.
Pineiro’s not a great pitcher. He’s not even good. But he’s not terrible. He might even be described as occassionally useful. Gil Meche is terrible. They don’t belong in the same category.
The M’s do need Joel Pineiro to pitch well this year. But they need Gil Meche to just go away.
State of the USSM ship, shirt sales, hosting drive
You’ve probably noticed that there are three tiny Google Ads on the USSM front page now, and one on normal story pages. And that we’ve been pushing the really cool USSM shirts and also the really awesome Limited Edition Top Ten list shirts (see, I’m pushing them right now). If you’ve read these site updates before, you’re probably vaguely aware that because our readership’s grown so vast, we’re no longer safe on the tiny little box I pay for, and, at a certain point, we decided it’d be better to try and squeeze enough money to upgrade our digs rather than die on the vine. In any event — the shirts sold well out of the gate (buy some, they’re cool) and the ads aren’t going gangbusters, but it looks like we’re going to make it. I’m in negotiations for hosting and hope to have it up before the start of the season.
Then, assuming someone buys a shirt and the modest ads do okay, we’ll run a breakeven (on dollars) operation through most of the season if growth keeps up, and we’ll figure out what happens then. Breakeven doesn’t sound so great, considering the time investment, but seriously, it’s a huge step up from out-of-pocket.
But let me throw this out there — if you run a site that takes donations (using Amazon or whatever), or if you’d rather see us put up something like that rather than run the current ads, drop us an email.
That’s the state of USSM. This’ll be three years since we started in on this, and it’s been rewarding, frustrating, and rewarding again. I could write for a while on how crazy it is that we’re looking for a beefier server because the one we moved to back in August of 2004 can’t take the strain anymore, or how weird it is to think that when Dave, Jason, and I started bouncing emails back and forth that we’d eventually join a community this large.
All I really want to say is thanks. I don’t know what happens next, but this has been pretty great so far.
BP: “What do statistics tell us about steroids”
I wrote a review of 
Thursday Mariner goodness
M’s versus Japan in an exhibition game yesterday got a ton of press (PI 1, PI 2, Times ).
Moyer likes Johjima. (TNT)
Unraveling records
This is a work of fiction. See the end for a detailed note on this.
“I wish we had a time machine,” the Commissioner of Major League Baseball said. Sitting on the couch made of bats and bases, Major League Baseball President Bob DuPuy nodded slowly. “Bob, you don’t have a time machine, do you?”
“If I had one, I’d already have gone back and told you not to buy the Brewers.”
Selig didn’t smile, but looked off. “It’s the right thing to do, isn’t it?”
“It’s the right thing to do.”
Selig sighed slowly. DuPuy watched, waiting.
“Well, let’s start making calls and get the team together,” Selig said quietly. “I’ll talk to the press tonight.”
“The Commissioner has always held wide power to act in the best interest of baseball,” Selig said, his eyes watering. The camera flashes were so constant all he could see nothing but white and, in some moments, the white-and-grey afterimage. Rumors of the announcement, true and false, had spread all day, and the room had been packed since morning. He couldn’t see the reporters or even his notes. “Following the release of grand jury testimony and an in-depth investigation by Major League Baseball, we have decided that we must act decisively to restore fan faith and integrity in the game. We will be removing from the record books the statistics-” he closed his eyes against the light “-of those players we have reasonable evidence to believe have used performance-enhancing drugs that were or are illegal or banned, and we will issue new statistics that will reflect the game that should have been, that fans wanted and deserved to see.”
George Will argued for deterrence. Players who’d used drugs should have their stats removed entirely, even parts of their career where they were known to have been clean. The other members of the Commisioner’s blue-ribbon panel disagreed. Two former players pushed for known users to only lose their record titles while leaving career and season statistics intact. Others argued for more statistical approaches that would result in overall statistics that matched pre-steroid years. The draft report to the Commissioner ran over two thousand pages with five separate and irreconcilable plans, and was filled with long math proofs and overwrought rhetoric.
“The problem,” Jeremy said, in the basement of Major League Baseball Advanced Media, “is that it’s not park adjusted.”
“It is soooooo ridiculously park adjusted, you wouldn’t even believe,” Aaron replied, tossing an official baseball back and forth from hand to hand, feet up on his desk.
“Go look it up then, prove me wrong.” Jeremy looked from his book to the screen and back again. “Why won’t this stupid thing of crap compile? All I want is hit location weighting. That’s not too much to ask.â€Â
“You look it up, you’re one that’s wrong.”
“Yeah, just like that time you wanted to argue range factor, you moron,” Jeremy said. Aaron stood up, his face red. “Ah.” Jeremy bent over to look at the O’Reilly book again and the ball cracked into his monitor, knocking the LCD off its stand and into his lap.
“What the hell!” Jeremy yelled, standing, monitor crashing onto his feet. Seeing their boss watching from the door, he bit off the next set of curses.
“Good news,” their boss said. He carried a bound volume that looked like a phone book in front of him, holding its bulk with both hands.
“What?”
“You two get to fix the stats.” Read more