Thoughts from the first two games
Since I was blessed with some extraordinary seats for last night’s shindig, I’ve got a few more thoughts than normal about what we’ve seen the first 48 hours of the season. They’re all pretty disconnected, though, so let’s just do a notes column, shall we?
Thiel on pitching prospects
Art Thiel’s column looks at why the M’s haven’t developed much pitching. I’m glad someone’s covering this, and not to be depressing, but when the PI goes away, do you really think the Times is going to suddenly start covering this stuff?
A couple points: Thiel does note that the team’s had a lot of injuries, but on the list of causes one of the things that’s not there is probably the most important cause — that the Mattox/Gillick drafts picked many horrible pitchers.
Also, as to this —
In terms of injury rate, the Mariners may not be much above the norm, although comprehensive stats are hard to come by. Last summer on the InsideThePark.com Web site, executive editor and P-I baseball correspondent Jason Churchill concluded in an extensive story that the Mariners’ casualty rate isn’t much above the major league norm.
Or, if you want to spend a season doing research, you could determine that they’re way above the norm, even if that’s not above what you might expect from random variation.
He then repeats Jason’s basic contention, which is that power guys with breaking pitches get injured more. There are two problems with this: first, defining what that means turns out to be harder than it would seem, and that statistically if you look at the injuries and attempt to classify them into any defined bucket of what you’re looking you’ll find the data doesn’t support that. Jason’s argument sounds logical, and if you talk to the wizened baseball guys they’ll agree, but I haven’t been able to find the data to support it, and it’s certainly not something that’s as clear as distinction as is being drawn here. I wrote about this in the “Power versus finesse” section of the Attrition War Summary and Conclusions.
BTW, Jason’s got a new blog. Check it out.
I’m happy to see Thiel write about this, especially at such length. I am a little disappointed at how it wound up.
Roger Clemens, The 21st Century Wants a Word With You
Roger Clemens gets a ticket from me. I’m handing it to him next time I see him, likely when we’re playing darts and listening to Jim Croce.
Proving that the ability to throw a baseball does not necessarily correlate with enlightenment, the jolly one popped off a racist wisecrack today:
“Roger Clemens was discussing his future Tuesday at the Astros season opener when he responded to a question about his health after the World Baseball Classic with a comment that some might consider racially insensitive … he made a questionable comment when speaking about the devotion of the Japanese and South Korean fans.
“None of the dry cleaners were open, they were all at the game, Japan and Korea,” Clemens said. “So we couldn’t get any dry cleaning done out there, but I guess the neatest thing is that 50,000 of them were at Anaheim Stadium.””
I’m sure your first reaction, like mine, was: hilarious! I have never, ever in my life heard that one. Do you get it? See, Asians work in laundries!
I’m equally certain that your second reaction was: wait a second, isn’t the stereotype the Chinese laundry? Man, Roger can’t even get his racism right.
If you’re going to wade into the stereotype sewer, at least be sure you’ve got the correct address. Not since Ice Cube made his threat to kick Koreans’ “chop suey asses” has a public figure so brazenly permuted bigotry and inaccuracy.
Clemens gets more points than Cube, since he didn’t threaten to burn down any stores. But he also committed two unforgivable sins: being a jackass for no reason, and — worse — being unfunny about it. I mean, dry cleaning? If you’re willing to risk offending a wide swath of people, shouldn’t your one-liner elicit more than an eyeroll?
For some time, I have kicked around the idea of printing up fake tickets. For efficiency’s sake.
I would give these tickets out at parties or around town, sometimes to ignorant but well-meaning folks — those that announce proudly “I have black friends,” or say “Oriental”. It would save time and provide the individual with a handy quick-reference guide for home study. A sort of embarassment-prevention program.
There would be other, more strident tickets for more overt acts of racism. These wouldn’t have the “Hey, maybe you should consider this” tone of the aforementioned, but more of a “Please, for the sake of all your fellow white people, stop saying things like this. The next time I meet an Asian person, I do not want them thinking that the strange thoughts that run through your deranged melon also bounce around in mine.”
When I meet Clemens at the next White People Convention, I’m going to blow my whistle, check a box, and give him the inaugural ticket. “Nothing personal,” I’ll tell him, “but you’re making us all look bad here.”
Okay, this isn’t going to happen. White people don’t all gather together at a convention, just like Asian people don’t all work at laundries, and the Indian guy you meet at a party probably doesn’t know the Indian guy you knew back in Cleveland. So I’ll have to hope for another solution.
While I’m not a believer in karma as literal truth, and I certainly don’t wish any physical harm to the future Hall of Famer, a fitting end to this saga might involve the yakuza setting up a dry cleaning front operation in Texas and waiting for him to come in. Just waiting.
Patiently and politely. You know, like Asians do.
2nd Game Crowd
1995 19,336
1996 38,570
1997 30,951
1998 24,523
1999 20,435
2000 29,242 (first Safeco Field instance)
2001 27,212
2002 40,805
2003 35,492
2004 37,947
2005 28,373
2006 20,051
That’s way, way off. And if you watched it on TV, that didn’t look like 20k, either.
Game 2: Angels at Mariners
RHP John Lackey vs RHP Joel Pineiro. 7:05, televised on KSTW-11. Washburn’s not the #2? Really?
Suggested storyline: Can Pineiro continue his WBC success?
Dave’s Crazy ’06 Predictions
Yea, I know, the season has already started, but I was a wee bit busy this weekend, so take em when you can get em.
Dave’s Wild Predictions For 2006
Mariner Specific Predictions
Wins: 85
Runs Scored/Allowed: 770-749
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez
Most Improved: Adrian Beltre
Comeback Player: Rafael Soriano
BA leader: Ichiro, who else, .339
HR leader: Beltre, 34
OPS leader: Sexson, .880
Innings Pitched Leader: Felix, 198
ERA Leader: King Felix, 2.47
K leader: El Cartuela, 213
Random Predictions
Number of times I yell at JJ Putz for throwing nothing but four seam fastballs: 58
Reliever fans have most confidence in by April 15th: Soriano
Times Mike Hargrove saves Guardado for a save situation at home in extra innings, thus driving me completely insane: 6
Derek’s most commonly uttered phrase during game threads: AAAARRRRGH
Failed attempts to read a Joe Sheehan column without hitting myself with a bat: 4
Number of no-hitters Felix throws this season: 1
Odds I fly to some AL city just to watch Felix in person this year: 2-1
Date of Mike Hargrove’s firing: May 19th, 2006
Players traded by July 31st deadline: Shin-Soo Choo, Rene Rivera, Julio Mateo
M’s selection with #5 pick in June Draft: Brandon Morrow
Take Me Out With The Crowd
“What’s your favorite part of Opening Day?” she asks me.
She’s fingering her Marantz audio recorder, my wife is, but I’m not the interview subject. We’re at Safeco Field, she working, me relaxing. In a few moments, she’ll return to recording players’ comments on this topic for an audio slideshow over at SeattleTimes.com.
Now, she’s asking me, and it’s one of those rare occasions where my cup of words isn’t running over.
Here’s why. The standard answers — baseball’s return after long absence, the stirrings of hope and renewal — are all true, but hackneyed. Can I really come with the old sauce, hot dogs and apple pie? Surely there’s a way to slash this Gordian knot, quick-like.
The song, I say. Take Me Out To The Ballgame. Read more
Worst Opening Night crowd in over ten years
1995 – 34,656
1996 – 57,467
1997 – 57,586
1998 – 57,822
1999 – 51,656
2000 – 45,552
2001 – 45,911
2002 – 46,036
2003 – 45,931
2004 – 46,142
2005 – 46,249
2006 – 45,515
If they don’t win it’s the saaaaaaaaaaame…
Random notes from the first game of the year:
– Pre-game intros: among the non-starteres, huge pops for Bloomquist (expected), Felix, and Joel Pineiro. I understand Bloomquist even, but Joel? What for? As much as Felix? Really?
– Overheard at the ballpark, 4/2/2006: “Johnny Damon can eat those nuts.” — Fan on the presentation of the Gold Glove to Ichiro
– Seeing Johjima crank that home run was worth the ticket.
– Jeff and I are tossing ideas around for how we’d do a USSM podcast, since there appears to be some reader interest in this.
– Centerfield bleachers are back in Section 101. Hopefully they’ll actually be temporary this year.
– Announced attendance was 45,515. The Mariners didn’t sell out. I can’t remember the last time that happened.
– Petagine’s name was wrong when he came up (chock full of ‘i’s)
– Would someone please explain to Hargrove that if the game’s tied going into the ninth at home, there cannot be a save situation for your closer, and you might as well use him when it’s tied? A year of this is going to drive me crazy.
Game One, Angels at Mariners
RHP Bartolo Colon vs LHP Jamie Moyer. 2:05 PM, FSN.
I’m excited.
To the Everett issue — what’s appropriate? Do you boo him starting with the first game and then keep booing until he’s released? Or is polite support for someone who wears the team uniform appropriate? If you don’t like the move, or if you don’t like Everett, I’d say the baseline is don’t applaud anything except the scoreboard announcement that he’s been traded to Tampa for a PTBNL. Waving inflatable dinosaurs… hmm. Where would you get one?