Garret v Griffey
An agent asking a team to sign one of their players shouldn’t count as a story.
Anyway, PECOTAs:
Garret: .275/.316/.422 in 418 PA
Griffey: .250/.343/.432 in 442 PA
And the only people who’d come out to see Anderson are the press people who keep singing his praises and telling us he’s underrated… and they don’t buy tickets.
Griffey’s Departure Timeline
For your convenience in arguing
1997
Winter 97: Griffey moves his off-season home and family to Florida
1998
End of the 98 season: Griffey offered 5y, $64m deal starting in 2001
1999
Safeco opens: Griffey offered 8y, $138m starting in 2001
Woody Woodward departs, Griffey displeased
Gillick wants a new deal, Griffey doesn’t want to sign
Gillick & Co go to meet Griffey in Florida, where Griffey asks for a trade so he can be closer to his family
Griffey has trade veto rights as a 10-year veteran who’d played for five years with the same team, and tells the M’s he’ll accept a trade to four teams, all in the NL: the Braves and Mets in the NL East, and the Reds and Houston in the NL Central (all four teams 1st or 2nd in their divisions). All four hold spring training in Florida.
Not a lot of demand, and Griffey okays talks with Pittsburgh and Cleveland, but is not happy that there isn’t a ton of demand.
Howard Lincoln refuses a two-year deal.
The Mets make an offer during the winter meetings. A call goes badly (according to Thiel, Armstrong said he was headed to dinner and wanted a call back quick or the next day, while Griffey’s agent said Armstrong demanded a reply in 15m, which angered Griffey and possibly scuttled the deal). Griffey refuses the trade. It’s also unclear to me if (and if, when) previous Mets offers were made and discussed (and refused) by Griffey.
Griffey declares he’ll accept only a trade to Cincinnati.
Pat Gillick reaches a deal with Jim Bowden after negotiations which add much racor, including public comments by Griffey about potential trades and threats that he’d veto any trade where the Reds gave up so much talent it would affect their chances to contend.
2000
Griffey’s first season as a Red
For a more detailed account, I recommend (as always) Art Thiel’s Out of Left Field, which goes through this in a lot of detail.
The A-Rod story
So SI has reported that Alex Rodriguez was one of the players who tested positive in the 2003 penalty-free survey testing for steroids. Of course, this is after he left the Mariners anyway, and tests were supposed to be anonymous, so who knows if this is relevant, valid, legal, or whatever. Let’s just let the reporting play out.
As positively attached as some people are to Griffey, others seem to be just as negatively attached to A-Rod, which shows itself every time they come back to town. In a way it’s puzzling, considering that when they left town originally, one guy simply played out his time and exercised his collectively-bargained rights, causing no harm, while the other forced the team’s hand to make them give him what he wanted.
As you should know from the guidelines, talking about people’s steroid use in the comment threads will get your post deleted in short order. If the authors feel like posting about the topic at some point, they will. Until then, this is your thread for discussing it, and don’t waste our time bringing off-topic stuff into the other threads.
Updated Tuesday: Rodriguez is now saying that he used banned substances (but does not know which ones) while he was with the Rangers for the 2001-2003 seasons. For more, see… everywhere, pretty much.
Saturday viewing: 38 Randy Johnson strikeouts
MLB sent us a note about Saturday’s programming: you get two Randy Johnson 19K games on MLB Network:
At 9am, June 24, 1997 game between the Mariners and Athletics
At 11:30am, August 8, 1997 against the White Sox
(times translated from this “ET” thing they quoted us)
Two of the finest pitching performances in Mariner history, available for your viewing. Oooooh yeah.
Edit: Or…maybe not, see above. But micahshelton in the comments says the White Sox game will be on 2/8 at 9pm PST and the Oakland game will be on 2/15 at the same time.
Mariner fandom for late Friday: Griffey = increased value
.. if you’re trying to sell tickets. This guy is selling spring training tickets for an absurd price (and advertising them as $1, which I always think is poor conduct)(just above “Craig”, who posts over and over spamming keywords) and…
Hurry and get these now before they sign Junior, if they do, prices will only go up thereafter…Cash only or possible trade for similar 3rd base side Safeco Field box seats for 2009.
I believe that this is the first listing to imply that Griffey rejoining the team will increase ticket demand. Why, even people in Atlanta are sniffing around for people who want 50 Griffey cards, presumably one for every game he’ll be healthy for in 2009. Yessss!
Okay, but here’s the find of the day, sent to us by Curt. I… it’s a Miguel Cairo signed baseball.
For $40.
But as Curt pointed out, that’s only the start of it. It quotes entirely (and without attribution) Miguel Cairo‘s “Playing Career” Wikipedia entry, which is a hilarious piece of work:
In 2004, Cairo won the second base job with the New York Yankees after starting the year in a platoon with Enrique Wilson. He finished the season hitting .292 (19 points over his lifetime average) with six home runs and 42 RBI in 122 games, prompting the comment from his manager: “He knows how to play”, Joe Torre said[1]. Cairo led the league in percentage of productive outs in 2005 for players with a minimum of 40 at-bats. Cairo recorded 17 productive outs in 32 productive out situations, for a PO% of 0.531. Given the potent nature of the Yankee lineup, the importance of these stats can not be overstated. In fact, Cairo had the highest winning percentage of team wins when he played in a game of any player in the majors in 2005 (for players with over 100 games played).However, the Yankees declined to offer him a contract for 2005 and signed Tony Womack as their new second baseman. Cairo was signed by the New York Mets as a free agent before the 2005 season, only to return to the Yankees as a free agent in the 2006 season.
Who wrote this, Buster Olney? His agent?
Meanwhile, an Ichiro bobblehead is selling for $10 — one fourth the price of a Miguel Cairo signed baseball! And the same as a Richie Sexson one. JJ Putz? $20. I don’t get it. I know they’re just stupid things that sit on your desk or wherever, but how can a representation of Sexson be worth the same amount of money as an Ichiro version? Unless it’s some kind of cruel gag gift for someone you don’t like.
And in the David Segui vein of things devalued by autographing…. how quickly Willy Boom-Boom Blomquist’s star has faded since his departure. An “augraphed” authentic Bloomquist jersey for $80. And this is in Bremerton! No size listed because as Rudy proved, hard work, determination, and grit know no sizing.
The Bar Just Gets Lower
A few free agents have signed in the last couple of days, and while they don’t directly impact the Mariners, they will impact the perceived market value of talents on the roster or players the M’s are interested in.
Randy Wolf: 1 year, $5 million with ~$3 million in incentives with Los Angeles.
Randy Wolf is Jarrod Washburn with a better breaking ball. He’s a decent enough back-end starter, a flyball lefty with okay command who misses some bats and succeeds when he keeps the ball in the park. If he pitches lights out, the Dodgers owe him $8 million. If he pitches like Washburn, they only owe him $5 million. Given this signing, it’s pretty clear that the M’s would have to eat at least $5 million, and probably more like $6 or $7 million, to move Jarrod Washburn in this market. You’re just not going to be able to dump him and free up much salary.
Cliff Floyd: 1 year, $750,000 with San Diego.
You want to know what Ken Griffey Jr is worth in this market? $750,000. Floyd’s the exact same player – LH bat who can only hit RHP, can’t play defense, has health problems, and is an above average but not great hitter when he’s playing. The Padres gave him a little bit more than the league minimum to be a veteran presence in the clubhouse and potentially be a platoon outfielder. There’s no market for Junior, so if the M’s get to the point where they determine he’s the LH bat they’re going to settle for, this is about what he should sign for. Forget those $4-$5 million rumors – he’ll be lucky to get $1 million guaranteed.
I don’t understand this at all
A couple of readers have pointed us to the ESPN Battle of the Budgets, now through 20 rounds, in which the conceit is that there are four GMs drafting anyone in the majors or minors with a total payroll of $40m for a series of head-to-head seven game series using DMB. Presumably they’re going to use DMB’s projections, since you can draft anyone anywhere.
Yay off-season content! Anyway, so obviously, the one player you want on the M’s at his salary next year if you’re trying to build is Felix, right? A bargain at $3.8m, especially when you consider how much some of the guys ahead of him cost. Cole Hamels went at #12 overall for a little more money (to Stark).
Steve Phillips — and I know, it’s Steve Phillips — took Ervin Santan for more money at #22. Olney took Cliff Lee for more money at #34. Phillips took Papelbon at #59!
Steve Phillips, by the way, should find a way to come in fifth in this competition.
I get that with 40m, trying to fill 25m rosters, you’re almost better off drafting 24 near-league-minimum guys no one’s heard of and then Pujols. And that with only four GMs, this isn’t all that insightful (consider that on average, they’ve still only taken two players per MLB franchise… and will end up having taken three).
I’m just not getting where Felix doesn’t jump the line ahead of some of these others.
Or, to put it this way, I’ll bet I could draft 25 guys on the board right now and beat Steve Phillips’ team.
SP: Felix $3.8m, Brett Cecil, Blue Jays, $400k, Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, $400k (?), Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks, $400k, Kevin Slowey, ~$500k
C: Pablo Sandoval, Giants, $400k (or Jeff Clement!)
1B: Micah Hoffpauir, Cubs, $400k (wince) or Logan Morrison, Florida ($400k) (Chris Davis went at #80 to Neyer!)
2B: Matt Antonelli, Padres $400k
SS: Brandon Hicks, Atlanta $400k
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals ~$600k (how can he not have gone higher?)
LF: Chase Headley, Padres, $400k
CF: Adam Jones, Orioles, $400k
RF: Jay Bruce, Reds, $400k
There you go. I’ve spent $9m and have $31m remaining, and it’ll take at least $4.4m to fill all the remaining spots. I take Pujols because he’s awesome, or Ichiro because he’s awesome and it’ll annoy everyone else, and I’m gold.
I’m counting, obviously, on DMB coming through with some nice projections here. It’s pretty obvious that none of the four owners are willing to risk this. We could probably do better with a lot more effort.
Add Another Bullpen Sleeper
Baker reports that the M’s have signed Tyler Johnson to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.
Yep, another quality free pickup for the M’s. Johnson’s coming off arm surgery, but he’s a pretty decent LOOGY when healthy. Add him to the mix with Rowland-Smith, Lugo, Seddon, and Vargas, and the M’s are stocking up on potentially useful LH relievers. And they aren’t giving up anything to get them.
This is beautiful to watch.
The Bullpen Sleepers
There are few things that we disagree with the mainstream media on more than the value of veteran relievers. I guarantee you that you’re going to see a ton of stories this spring about how the M’s bullpen is a huge weakness, how their lack of experience is going to cost them a lot of wins, and how the loss of Putz and Green is going to affect the entire pitching staff. Whether it’s Baker, Street, LaRue, Arnold, whoever… this is an article that you can just count on getting published at some point in the next month or so.
I’m here to tell you that this bullpen could actually be pretty good. There are an awful lot of interesting arms coming to camp with the M’s, and finding six solid relievers isn’t going to be as tough as people might think. We’ve talked about the nifty low-cost pickups of Tyler Walker and David Aardsma already, and most of you are aware of what to expect from Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista and Ryan Rowland-Smith. But, there are other guys coming to camp that could prove pretty useful out of the pen this year, and this post is about them. In no particular order:
Chris Seddon, LHP, Non-Roster Invitee
Seddon is a 25-year-old LHP who spent the last three years starting in Double-A and Triple-A for the Rays and Marlins. He has generic left-handed pitcher stuff – an 88 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH slider, and a 78 MPH change-up. With no real out-pitch against RHBs and just average command, Seddon isn’t going to have much of a career as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. However, check out his career minor league splits:
Vs LHB: 592 batters faced, 7.4% BB%, 17.2% K%, 52% GB%, 6 HR allowed, 3.54 FIP
Vs RHB: 1992 batters faced, 9.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, 39% GB%, 66 HR allowed (!), 5.06 FIP
The home run rates ought to jump off the page. 92% of his career minor league home runs have come off right-handed bats despite just 78% of his opposing batters being right-handed. His big fatal flaw as a minor league pitcher is giving up long balls to right-handed hitters. Against lefties, he’s just fine.
So, now, the team has an opening in the bullpen for a left-handed reliever who can get left-handers out, and they happen to play half their games in a park that is extremely hard on right-handed power hitters. The park somewhat neutralizes Seddon’s fatal flaw, and his best skill is one the team has need of. And remember, these are his numbers as a starter – move him to the pen, and his velocity is going to jump a couple of ticks. There’s no reason Seddon couldn’t be a league average LOOGY right now, and if he takes to a bullpen conversion well, there’s George Sherrill-type potential here.
Shawn Kelley, RHP, Non-Roster Invitee
We talked about him initially when the NRI list came out, but it bears repeating – Kelley just killed Double-A batters last summer and dominated the Venezuelan Winter League a few months ago. His fastball/slider combination gives him two pitches that can miss bats and he’s got pretty good command of both. He doesn’t have a great weapon against lefties, so he might not end up as a future closer, but if you’re looking for a guy who could emerge as a right-handed strikeout reliever, he’s the main one to watch.
It’s unlikely that Kelley makes the roster out of spring training, as he’s currently penciled in as Tacoma’s closer to start the year, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him join the team at some point this summer. He’s the kind of pitcher who won’t need much time in the minors.
Jose Lugo, LHP, Rule 5 Selection
As a rule 5 pick, Lugo has something of a leg up on the competition for the last spot in the bullpen. If the M’s don’t keep him on the big league roster, they lose him, so if the team has a hard decision to make, Lugo’s probably getting the tiebreaker. And, really, he should – he’s a power left-handed arm who gets extreme sink on his fastball. His secondary stuff needs a lot of work, but think of him as something like a left-handed Roy Corcoran with a bit more velocity – the groundball rate makes up for a lot of his other weaknesses.
Yes, he was 24 and hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet, but he’s faced 1,350 batters and has a career GB% of 59%. Not surprisingly, he doesn’t give up home runs – just 13 in 321 innings as a pro. It’s hard to hit the ball over the wall when you’re just punching it on the ground all the time. And, even without any real good secondary stuff, he’s run a career 2.4 K/BB rate, even holding his own against RHBs. He’s probably not going to be a great reliever this year, but a left-handed power sinking fastball out of the pen isn’t something to be ignored. He’ll probably spend most of the season throwing low leverage innings and working on a strikeout pitch of some sort, but don’t sleep on Lugo – he could turn into a nifty little arm down the stretch.
Eric Hull, RHP, Non-Roster Invitee
A little guy with big numbers, Hull has fallen victim to the anti-short-RHP bias. He’s listed at 5’11 but is probably more like 5’9, so that gets him written off in a lot of circles from the start. However, he’s got nothing left to prove in Triple-A, where he’s just blown hitters away the last few years. He’s struck out 25.4% of the batters he’s faced as a professional pitcher, and is at 28.5% against RHBs. His FIP against righties in Pawtucket last year was 1.82. He doesn’t throw 94, but he pitches like a guy who does.
Like Kelley, he’s unlikely to break camp with the team, but he’ll provide depth in Tacoma should the team needed a right-handed reliever who can generate swings-and-misses. His upside is as a situational reliever, but if the team isn’t getting good performances from the Walker/Lowe/Aardsma/Corcoran/Batista group, they’ll have another option down on the farm.
The best way to build a good bullpen is to stick a ton of interesting relievers in a dog fight and give the jobs to the winners. That’s exactly what the M’s have done this winter, and they’ll come to Peoria with something like 13 or 14 potential bullpen options with some potential. Even if you haven’t heard of these guys before, that doesn’t make them talentless hacks.
There’s a good chance that, by the end of the year, the M’s bullpen will be one of the pleasant surprises of the season.
2009 clubhouse depth chart
Clubhouse Leader
Beltre
Clubhouse Leader Turned Cancer
Carlos Silva
Leadership by Stellar Example
Ichiro!
Beltre
Morrow
Jokester to keep people loose
Mark Lowe (declared)
Ichiro!
Clubhouse Religious Leader
Mike Sweeney
Awesome
Ichiro!
Beltre
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Morrow
Felix
(not in order of awesomeness)(except for Ichiro!)
Friend to the Beat Reporter
Carlos Silva
Jarrod Washburn
Beat Reporter’s Nightmare
Eric Bedard
Ichiro!
Resented Japanese Faction
Ichiro!
Johjima
Resenting the Japanese Faction Faction Leader
Carlos Silva
Crazed Work Ethic
Ichiro!
Clement
Token Clubhouse Intellectual
Miguel Batista
(should only be referred to as “Doc” or “Prof”)
Grizzled Old Guy
Miguel Batista
Supremely Confident Kid
Felix