Game 162, Felix Appreciation Day!
I know the schedule says it’s “Kids Appreciation Day” but what have the little buggers done for the Mariners lately, huh? Maybe if we were talking about low-service time players, sure, but– it doesn’t matter!
And if Wak was holding Aardsma back yesterday in case he needed to get Felix that last win, and having guaranteed a winning season he was willing to trade yesterday for today knowing he’s going to throw everything he’s got into this game, well, that’s kind of cool in its own way.
And if you have a chance to get to the park, do it — it’s a lovely day, and with a 1:10 start you should be entirely comfortable as Felix goes about mowing down Texas.
Game 161, Rangers at Mariners
Ryan Rowland-Smith!
RF-L Ichiro!
CF-R Gutierrez
2B-R Lopez
DH-L Griffey
3B-R Beltre
C-R Johjima
1B-L Carp
LF-L Saunders
SS-R Josh Wilson
Game 160, Rangers at Mariners
With a sweep we could pull into a tie for second, which we wouldn’t technically get losing the season series, but hey, who knew we’d have that to look forward to going into the final series? Of course, we’d also likely leave the realm of protected draft picks in the process, which doesn’t excite me. I’d take it, if it means an opportunity to see Snell build on what he did last week.
T-~42 hours until the final Felix Day of the season.
Lineup:
RF Ichiro!
CF Gutierrez
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
3B Beltre
1B Carp
C Moore
LF Saunders
SS Wilson
Attendance and Payroll
Chuck Armstrong spoke with Geoff Baker yesterday, offering his thoughts on the M’s turnaround, the critics of the prior administration (including us, I’m sure), and how the team is going to go forward. Included in the article is this brief mention of attendance and payroll.
Armstrong said the team won’t know its 2010 payroll until mid-October. The team had budgeted for 2 million fans, and while it should exceed that by about 200,000, Armstrong says prices of tickets being bought are lower.
“People used to come to the ballpark and say ‘Give me the best available ticket,’ ” he said. “Now they say ‘Give me the cheapest available ticket.’ “
The M’s attendance has only dropped off about 4.5% from last year, which is pretty remarkable given the circumstances. Attendance in MLB as a whole is down 6.5%, and the Mariners were coming off the kind of season that chases away season ticket holders en masse. The San Diego Padres, for instance, went from 2.4 million to 1.9 million fans this year, as 500,000 people decided not to come see a team that finished 63-99 last year.
The combination of a good season from the team this year, good will generated from the new front office, and the return of some guy named Griffey has helped hold off a significant part of a potential slide in attendance. Armstrong includes discounting as part of that as well, as the average revenue per ticket being generated is apparently lower now than it used to be (he offers no proof of this, of course, but it’s believable enough to be taken at face value).
So, what impact should all this have on the payroll?
It should go up, even if not a lot. The Mariners gave Zduriencik a budget that was around $20 million lower than the 2007 team, in large part because of their projected attendance losses and uncertainty surrounding the economy. Jack Z did them one better than that, as the team’s total player expenditures are going to come out close to $25 million lower the prior year, thanks to the mid-season trade of Jarrod Washburn and the team’s insistence on having the Pirates and Brewers pay the remaining 2009 salaries of Jack Wilson, Ian Snell, and Bill Hall.
So, despite a rebuilding year and a drop in attendance, the M’s didn’t take a big financial hit this year. And, given the winning season that the M’s have just guaranteed plus some signs that the economy is recovering, the M’s projected attendance and revenue for 2010 has to be higher than it was for 2009. With higher projected revenues should come a larger budget.
So, Mr. Armstrong, please give the front office some additional financial flexibility. We know these guys aren’t wasteful with your cash the way the previous regime was, and that you can expect that a solid ROI on money invested in the on field personnel. Bump the payroll back up over $100 million. Give Jack and his ability to spend some money this winter, and see what kind of revenues pour in when they put the franchise back in playoff contention.
Game 159, A’s at Mariners
Oh, vagaries of chance. Doug Fister, who starts tonight, is regarded as a surprise, a revelation, a top contender for next year’s rotation, depending on who you listen to. But if you start stacking him against the other rotation guys, well… it’s not that great. Fister’s below-average K rate comes with a better-than-average walk rate, and he’s given up a lot of taters. In terms of pick-your-advanced-metric (say, FIP) he’s between Jason Vargas and Carlos Silva. And well behind Jakubauskas, who might get to relieve Fister tonight.
It’s not that I’m down on him. But it seems like the sentiment about Fister, who is a no-expectations fair-results guy, is a lot different than Ian Snell, who came in with the headcase baggage, or Vargas, who actually has performed a lot better than Fister.
In fairness, he is eight inches taller.
Can we please have a Branyan appearance tonight? Please, Wak? Give the people what they want (an album that contains one of my favorite songs, “Destroyer.” There’s a story. Don’t ask).
Morrow and Hope
8 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts. Just a dominating performance that shows the kind of talent this kid has. This is the kind of game that makes you say “man, he’s on the verge of really being something.”
Oh, sorry, you think I’m talking about Brandon Morrow last night? Actually, I was describing Chad Gaudin’s performance against the Texas Rangers on June 28th. Gaudin put up the exact same line as Morrow did last night, only he did it in Texas instead of in Safeco, and against a team that can hit instead of a collection of no power slap hitters.
I know its tempting to look at Morrow’s performance and say “yep, he can be that kind of pitcher”. But in reality, he’s not that different from guys like Gaudin, who have knockout stuff but significant limitations as well.
Gaudin has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen because he can’t get left-handed hitters out. Morrow’s got a massive platoon split as well. Gaudin has problems working deep into ballgames because he throws so many pitches, in large part due to his command problems. Ditto for Morrow. Gaudin has always been a guy who pitched below his talent level. That describes Morrow’s major league career as well.
Obviously, they’re not exactly the same pitcher. Morrow’s fastball is 5+ MPH faster, which earns him quite a bit more benefit of the doubt. We always look at guys with the kind of stuff that Morrow possesses and dream about what they can become if they figure it out. Problem is, they rarely do. Much more frequently, they carve out a career like Gaudin. Or Jonathan Sanchez, Oliver Perez, or Jorge de la Rosa.
They succeed, to an extent, in spite of their command problems. But they’re rarely as good as you think they should be. Every once in a while, they give you a glimmer of hope, a night where everything works and they look like the ace you always wanted them to become. But, with few exceptions, they turn out to be significantly less than the sum of their parts.
It’s tempting to look at Brandon Morrow’s performance last night and say “he’s ready to be the #2 starter behind Felix”. But more likely, it’s just a tease. It’s the glimpse of potential that is so often followed by a soul crushing return to normalcy.
We can dream about what Brandon Morrow might become, but if we want to see a more likely outcome, take a look at Chad Gaudin. Without some significant sustainable improvements in his command, you’re always going to wish for more.