The Mauer We Don’t See
By way of introduction, I wanted to say thanks to Dave for trying this little experiment where he will post once a week on the Brock and Salk blog, and I’ll post as often as I can here. I am a huge fan of this blog, although I don’t always agree with everything on it. That’s the way it’s supposed to be!
Though I thoroughly enjoyed Moneyball, I won’t pretend to have a complete (or even incomplete) understanding of sabermetrics nor will I fool around with anything more complicated than OPS, WAR, or UZR. But I hope to offer some thoughts that show the way baseball players see the game – or at least what I can discern by talking to them in the clubhouse.
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I returned to the Mariners’ clubhouse after a recent vacation and started to catch up with Josh Wilson (one of the nicest, most normal baseball players you will ever meet). I thought things seemed quiet after a tumultuous couple of weeks before I had left. Let’s make some news today, I told him.
“The Twins are in town,” he said dryly. “So if Joe Mauer doesn’t get 10 hits this week, that will be about the biggest news you could imagine!”
I’m not sure if Mauer is the best player in baseball. You could probably make a case for
Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, and a few others. But the guy I hear other players mention with the most reverence is Mauer.
And the reasons why range from his hands to his head to his swing to his words.
I first found out about the players’ obsession with Mauer while watching him hit against Justin Verlander in a meaningful double-header late last year. Verlander threw a 97-mph fastball up and in and Mauer turned on it down the line for a double. OK, I thought, that’s a normal double…
Well, not to the players watching in the clubhouse. Ryan Langerhans, Rob Johnson, Matt Tuiasosopo and a few others started hooting and hollering like someone had just hit a 550 foot home run. When I asked why, they explained that it was nearly impossible to keep that ball fair. They said that 99% of players would either break their bat, hit that pitch foul or, at BEST, fist it into the outfield. But Mauer had the bat speed and power to actually drive it with authority. That’s when I found out that Mauer was truly special.
Jason Vargas found out on Tuesday.
Yeah, he already knew that pitching to Mauer was a difficult proposition and yeah, it was Vargas who had snare a line drive marked for his face in order to avoid serious injury. But while he was impressed with Mauer’s hitting, he was more impressed with what happened after. Mike Sweeney flew out to lead off the next inning. When he came back to the dugout, he delivered a message to Vargas. According to Sweeney, Mauer told him, “I would have loved to get a hit, but I would much rather have seen him catch that ball!” All class.
And that class translates into leadership on the field. Many fans want their players (or managers) to show fire, feeling and emotion. When they are upset at what is happening on the field, they want to know that every player is equally as upset. And while guys like Paul O’Neil and Kevin Youkilis do exist, the vast majority of ballplayers learn to control their emotions because failing seven times out of 10 can be exhausting!
“Mauer is just a calm presence,” says fellow backstop Rob Johnson. “He has an air about him which some guys can fake but his seems real. It’s convincing.”
Of course, it’s his hitting that deserves the most attention. And while many players might mention bat speed, plate discipline or sheer power, it seems to be what Mauer doesn’t do which impresses his peers.
“He is never off-balance,” says Vargas. “He just lets the ball come to him and so he’s never fooled.”
Of course, if a batter is never fooled, it’s tough to craft an approach against him. Where do you throw it if you can’t fake him into swinging at bad pitches and he hits “pitchers’ pitches” like the one from Verlander? You start to see how a guy can hit .365 with an OPS of 1.031 in 2009.
And apparently, his ability to stay in control of an at bat starts with his hands.
“His hands are just very quiet and that keeps the rest of him relaxed,” says reliever Shawn Kelley who faced him for the first time this week. “There is not much movement and it seems like he just waits for the ball to come to him. He is comfortable but still aggressive in the strike zone.”
It seems as though comfort is at the heart of the Mauer legend. Whether it’s keeping his hands still or his emotions in check, it’s the calmness (combined with talent) that seems to impress his peers the most. Amazing, considering the explosion that occurs when his bat his the ball.
The funny thing is, as I read these quotes, I’m realizing that they don’t quite do justice to the reverence in their voices. Yeah, the words and descriptions are telling, but you need to see the look on the players’ faces when they’re talking. They get that expression that you or I might have when we’re talking about our favorite player from childhood. That awe-inspired, excited gleam in the eyes…
So far in 2010, Mauer has a WAR of 1.6. He’s behind Brett Gardner, Andres Torres and David Eckstein. He’s 42nd in the league. But ask his peers, and Joe Mauer rises to the top.
The Problem With ERA
Beginning yesterday, we’re trying something new and a little different with the guys over at Brock and Salk – we’re doing some post-swapping. I’ve agreed to write one post per week for their site, and Mike will contribute pieces to USSM on a semi-regular basis. The idea is to give both of our audiences something that they don’t necessarily get right now; I’ll be bringing some statistical analysis to their blog, and Mike will bring some of the behind the scenes stuff to ours. Both perspectives are valid, and we think it will give everyone a more balanced view of the game.
Anyway, my first post at their blog is up now. It’s a pretty basic primer on the flaws of ERA, so it may not be news to you, but I tried to write it in a way that wouldn’t be intimidating to people who don’t like math. We’ll have Mike’s first USSM post up here in the not too distant future.
Hope you guys enjoy the collaboration.
Game Fifty-Three Recap
Yay, 22-31.
Creeping back towards .500. Nice to take three in a row from a very good Twins team, even if they were missing Orlando Hudson (and Michael Cuddyer today). This game is essentially how the Mariners drew up their game plan for the season – get some guys on base, let the top of the order run like rabbits, and score enough runs to support Felix. It hasn’t worked often enough, but it did tonight, and has to be encouraging to the organization.
Speaking of Felix, that was pretty fun to watch, especially the eighth inning. Felix has always had problems with left-handed hitters, and the Twins have some very good ones, but he just blew them away. These are some of the premier offensive players in the game, and they had no chance against the King.
Offensively, there were some positive signs. Saunders ripped that double to right, and showed good plate coverage by singling to center on a pitch away. Lopez, obviously, has found his power stroke again, which the team desperately needed. And the M’s showed good awareness of Pavano’s problems holding runners on, taking advantage at every opportunity by stealing five bases off of him, three of them uncontested. This still isn’t a great offense, but it’s not as bad as the one we had to endure in April and May.
With the Rangers losing again, the M’s now find themselves six games out in the AL West. Brett Anderson went back on the DL for the A’s today as well, so the two teams at the top of the pile aren’t exactly rolling in good news. The M’s still have a chance at this thing. It’s not a great chance, but it’s a chance.
Game 53, Twins at Mariners
Pavano vs Hernandez, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
Carl Pavano was a punchline for a long time, due to his big contract and bad performance in New York. However, since getting healthy, he’s become a pretty darn good pitcher, a right-handed strike-thrower who gets enough ground balls to be a solid middle of the rotation guy. M’s aren’t going to get many walks against him tonight – they’ll have to hit their runs in.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, DH
Kotchman, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Johnson, C
Saunders, LF
Chad Cordero Actually a Mariner Now
Cordero had a 13/3 K/BB and eight hits allowed through 9.2 innings in May. He’s been coming around, the organization has been pretty positive about him throughout. It’s an obvious move.
Now What?
A quick reminder that I’ll be doing my weekly chat with Brock and Salk on ESPN 710 today, but instead of 12:30, we’ll do it at 2:15. Can’t imagine what the topic of the day will be.
Okay, Junior’s retired. At the risk of sounding heartless, it’s time to figure out what to do with the roster now. In the short term, the M’s will almost certainly just call up another pitcher from Tacoma (bet on Chad Cordero) in order to get them through the rest of their 20-striaght-games-without-a-day-off stretch, and go back to the 12 man pitching staff. In the long term, however, the departure of Griffey from the roster gives the Mariners some opportunities.
Everyone knows they need another hitter. As we discussed yesterday, they probably need to upgrade at first base if they’re going to try to contend, but the open roster spot from Griffey retiring now gives them the potential to retain Kotchman and keep him as a part-time player if they can get a bat who can rotate between 1B/DH/LF.
There’s one really obvious guy who fits the bill perfectly: Luke Scott. I talked about him as a fit this winter, and we’ve mentioned his name a number of times over the first few months, but with Griffey out of the picture, he makes more sense than ever.
Against right-handers, you could put Saunders or Langerhans in left, Bradley at DH, and Scott at first base. On days where you wanted Kotchman’s glove in there (perhaps when Fister and Felix are pitching), Scott or Bradley can play left, with the other spending time at designated hitter. Against lefties, he could be a big thumping bat off the bench, the kind of real pinch-hitter that the team could use to sub in for the catcher in a high leverage situation.
A guy who can hit the ball a long way and give you flexibility at three positions, doesn’t make that much money, is under team control for 2011, and is playing on a team that has no chance of winning this year – seriously, he’s about as perfect a fit as you’re going to get.
It would have been hard to fit him into the roster with Griffey around. Now, the M’s have an opening for him. If they’re serious about winning, they should make this move sooner than later.
Minor League Wrap (5/24-30/10)
Sorry about this one being a few days late. Computer issues bogging me down and then I had to sift through everything again, so it’s a bit slapdash. Anyway, let’s get to it.
To the jump!
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What a Night
I remember sitting in my room listening to the radio broadcast of Junior’s first home game; I was too stunned to jump around when that ball flew out to *left*, I just stared at the goosebumps on my arms.
I remember getting home from school and tuning in to the M’s in New York – a rare TV game. Every replay of that incredible catch of Barfield’s drive made it look more and more improbable.
I remember the 1996 season, with Griffey and Rodriguez drawing comparisons to Mantle/Maris. I was in college miles and miles from Washington, but people from all over couldn’t stop talking about it. Some even expressed jealousy that I was an M’s fan; this stopped abruptly in 1998/1999.
Junior slow slide into replacement level started early, but he had so far to fall that he’s hung on for a decade. Did he stick around too long? Yes, of course. But the slide may keep some fans from remembering just how amazing Griffey was in the mid-90s. Rally’s historical WAR database has a couple of seasons over 9 WAR, which equal or best Pujols’ best years, and leave Randy Johnson’s in the dust. That’s worth remembering.
Because of this, I look past the negatives – and there were plenty. I remember the acrimonious end to Griffey’s first go-round in Seattle, and I’ve always resisted the Manichean story that Griffey ‘saved’ baseball here (or the subtext that there was no baseball here pre-Griffey). But he made baseball here an absolute joy to watch for many years, and that’s enough for me.
After reading Shannon Drayer’s story here, I wonder if Griffey’s enjoying the fact that his somewhat awkward exit has been upstaged by the drama surrounding Armando Galarraga’s perfect game in Detroit.
You’ve all seen the replay by now, and you all know how horribly Jim Joyce bungled that call. Joyce himself apologized to Galarraga after the game. There’s an interesting debate going on about how MLB can ‘make this right’ for Galarraga; apparently the official scorer is looking at changing the call to an error that would at least preserve a no-hitter. Others (including our fearless leader at USSM) argue that MLB should overturn the call and retroactively give Galarraga a perfect game.
What’s somewhat encouraging is that opponents of an expanded replay are in retreat. There’s no way to argue that replay in this instance wouldn’t have 1) overturned the call and 2) not interrupted the game in any meaningful fashion.
I feel like we’re winning this war. The ALCS last year, and now Galarraga this year; it’s happening too often and the situations are too important. From all accounts, Joyce is a good guy. He never asked to be a poster boy for blown calls, and hey, we have the technology to not allow any poor umpire to feel what Joyce is feeling right now.
*edited to add the correct direction of Jr.’s first Kingdome HR. Sheesh. Since it was on radio, I had this perfect image of that shot, and I remember feeling confused and a little bit let down when I finally saw a replay of it. It looked all wrong (though still pretty cool).
Game Fifty-Two Recap
Yay, 21-31.
Let’s just be honest – the M’s got a gift. Replays show that Josh Wilson was probably out, so if the ump gets the call right, we’re still playing, and the Twins have the top of their order coming up. On a night that Jim Joyce changed history with a bad call in Detroit, we just saw another reason why this game badly needs instant replay – the umpires are not good enough to do this without help.
Cliff Lee is just so, so good. I don’t know how much longer we’ll get to watch him pitch, so savor his starts.
Another bad night for the offense. Jack can talk about being “reasonably optimistic” about this roster all he wants, but the M’s now have an open roster spot, and they should use it on someone who can hit.
Lots of potential goats spared from withering criticism tonight. Rob Johnson with another backbreaking passed ball in the 9th inning, putting the go-ahead run in scoring position. Wak going with Eliezar Alfonzo as his pinch-hitter in the 10th, and not having RRS or Olson warming up to go after the LHBs due up in the top of the 11th, if it got there. The M’s nearly lost a game they should have won, but in the end, they’ll take the gift win.
Game 52, Twins at Mariners
Lee vs Slowey, 7:10 pm.
No commentary tonight. It doesn’t feel right to write about anything else on the night when Jr retires.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Huggy Bear, DH
Bradley, LF
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Josh Wilson, SS