Game 13, Mariners At Royals
Fister vs Chen, 5:10 pm,
I don’t have a whole lot to say about yesterday’s game. Vargas was good, Smoak homered, and a bad bullpen gave up a lead to a good offense. It’s going to happen, especially while the team is leaning on Chris Ray’s experience and not on someone else’s talent (not that Wedge has a lot to pick from, honestly) in the eighth inning.
So, now, the M’s take a quick four day trip to Kansas City. The Royals have a lot of good young talent, but fortunately for the M’s, most of it is in the minors. This is still a beatable team, even for a flawed Mariner roster, so taking three out of four shouldn’t be out of the question. They’ll just need to hit a bit better with men on base and get some good starts from the rotation guys, because this bullpen can’t be trusted with a slim lead.
Oh, and try not to laugh when you see who is hitting cleanup today.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Kennedy, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Wilson, 2B
Game 12, Blue Jays At Mariners
Vargas vs Drabek, 12:40 pm.
If ever you wanted to test the hypothesis of different types of starting pitchers throwing off a team’s timing, using the short, left-handed soft-tossing change-up specialist in Jason Vargas the afternoon after Michael Pineda’s Fastball Exhibition Tour would be just about the perfect situation. I’m guessing this won’t go quite as well as last night did, however.
Also, Kyle Drabek is really good. I’m not thinking a sweep is highly likely.
Ichiro, RF
Kennedy, 2B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Langerhans, CF
Rodriguez, 3B
Ryan, SS
Gimenez, C
Game Eleven Recap
I’ve talked at length about the things that I think Michael Pineda needs to improve upon. Tonight, we talk about the reason why he’s so highly thought of to begin with – a ridiculously great fastball.
We saw it in the first inning, as Pineda came out throwing 95-98, but fell behind Jose Bautista 3-0 after getting a couple of quick outs. Bautista is one of the game’s best fastball hitters, and he was in a count where he could just sit on three straight fastballs. 3-0, fastball, called strike one. 3-1, fastball, called strike two. 3-2, fastball, swinging strike three. Inning over.
Pineda just kept pounding the Jays with fastballs, and they kept swinging through them. In the fourth inning, he went after Adam Lind – a left-handed batter – with nothing but heat, most of it down the middle. Lind couldn’t touch it. For variety, he’d work in a few sliders and change-ups, but they’d inevitably get hit, and he’d go back to throwing the fastball right by the next hitter.
On the night, he threw 73 fastballs, and got 14 swinging strikes, a ridiculous 19.2% rate – and most of that came early, as through four innings, he had 11 swinging strikes on 45 fastballs. A good pitcher will post a swinging strike rate of 10%, with most whiffs coming on breaking balls when ahead in the count. That many swinging strikes from fastballs, including some when behind in the count to a good fastball hitting team, is just special.
Tonight, we saw Pineda feature one pitch and dominate with it. The secondary stuff still isn’t there, but tonight, he didn’t need it. He showed off a fastball that was good enough on its own. If he had a good slider and change-up tonight, he might have thrown a perfect game. His fastball was THAT good.
In the fifth and especially the sixth inning, he started leaning on his slider a bit more. Given how dominant the fastball was early, I figured they’d just keep throwing it until Toronto’s batters proved they could hit it, but the shift worked as well, and he got a few key strikes to left-handed hitters with the breaking ball. I’d imagine this is what coaches mean when they talk about setting hitters up by establishing your fastball – the slider itself wasn’t great, but most guys went up there looking fastball and didn’t react well to something slower and with downward tilt.
Also interesting, and somewhat unexpected, is just how much Pineda has lived in the upper part of the strike zone. That 10% GB% tonight was no fluke – that was the direct result of him pitching almost exclusively from the belt up. He threw one perfectly located fastball to J.P. Arencibia on the outside corner at the knees, but besides that, it was up, up, and up some more.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with pitching up in the zone if you have the stuff to do it. Pedro Martinez pitched this way. So did Johan Santana. If you’ve got a nasty fastball and can locate it, you can get a lot of whiffs up in the zone. Pineda has the velocity and the command to live up there and make it work. It will result in a lot of fly balls, but the strikeouts will make it a worthwhile trade-off. Don’t expect many double plays when Pineda’s on the mound, though – if he keeps pitching like this, he’s going to be one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball.
He’s also going to be one of the most fun to watch. Despite running into some problems in the 8th inning, Pineda was about as good tonight as you could have hoped.
Welcome to Seattle, kid. Pitch like that and you can stay as long as you’d like.
Game 11, Blue Jays At Mariners
Doing my weekly 5:15 radio spot with Toby Howell at 1510 KGA in Spokane. You can listen live here.
Romero vs Pineda, 7:10 pm.
The Safeco Field debut of Michael Pineda takes place tonight, and the M’s actually have a chance to put together back to back wins. Needless to say, it’d be nice to see the M’s run away with one early and cruise to an easy victory, but against a quality lefty like Romero, I’d call that pretty unlikely.
M’s run out a different looking line-up tonight. Figgins is out with the bruised thumb, and his absence gives Wedge a chance to reward Luis Rodriguez with a start at third base. The struggling Jack Cust sits with an LHP on the mound, but because of the way the M’s roster is arranged, he’s just replaced by another LH bat. Even getting Gutierrez back eventually won’t change the team’s need for a right-hander who can spell Cust at DH from time to time, either playing there himself or by playing left field and shifting Bradley to DH.
Ichiro, RF
Wilson, 2B
Bradley, DH
Olivo, C
Smoak, 1B
Rodriguez, 3B
Saunders, LF
Ryan, SS
Langerhans, CF
The Case For Luis Rodriguez To Play More
It’s no secret that I’ve been a fan of Luis Rodriguez for a while, and I was pretty thrilled when he made the roster. So, obviously, I enjoyed the end of last night’s game a little bit more since it was Rodriguez who had the great at-bat to win it.
I’d also like to suggest that we should see more of Rodriguez in the line-up going forward. No, I don’t think he should play everyday, as I realize the infield is crowded with guys who have better resumes than Rodriguez does. And no, I don’t think he’s going to repeat his 2010 season line from Charlotte in the majors any time soon. I do think, however, that Rodriguez possesses a somewhat interesting skillset, and he offers one thing that none of the other guys who play second or third bring to the table – a little bit of power.
He’s diminutive in size, but Rodriguez has more oomph in his bat than is often assumed. Last night, you saw him jump on an off-speed pitch from Camp and crush it down the right field line – he just got out in front of it and hit it foul. The winning hit was hit to the warning track in right-center field, so even though it officially went down as a single, that was an extra base kind of hit. Despite his pedigree as a 5’9 utility infielder, Rodriguez is not a slap hitter. Of the nine balls he’s put in play this year, only one was a ground ball, because he’s taking a pretty decent cut up there at the plate.
Chone Figgins is fast, Jack Wilson is better defensively, and Adam Kennedy… well, people seem to like him as a teammate. There are reasons for all of these guys to play, but realistically, the one who might have a future in Seattle is Rodriguez. Even though Figgins is signed through 2013, this doesn’t seem like a marriage that is going to last. The M’s had a chance to ship him out last winter and declined, but I doubt that they’ll be all that attached to him the next time a team calls and offers to take most of that contract off their hands. Wilson and Kennedy are just stop-gap solutions until Dustin Ackley is ready to take over at second base, and at this point of their careers, both are looking at each year as if it could be their last.
With a good 2011 season, Rodriguez could actually earn himself a real job on this team going forward. He’s only 30 and he’s ideally suited for the reserve infield role as a switch-hitter who can play all three spots without much of a problem. He doesn’t have the entitlement thing of a career starter who might not like getting moved around the diamond or getting irregular playing time – Rodriguez is the kind of guy who would be thrilled with 300 plate appearances a year.
The M’s will probably need a guy who can play second base and hit right-handed for the next few years, as Ackley still struggles against southpaws. They also need an infielder besides Justin Smoak who can hit the ball with some authority, and Rodriguez is the one guy from the cabal of utility infielders on the roster who can do that. This year is an opportunity for the M’s to find out what they have in different guys, and Rodriguez should be one of the guys who is getting a longer look.
There’s still room for Wilson and Kennedy to play some, but perhaps those two shouldn’t share second base exclusively. Perhaps Chone Figgins could use more frequent days off, if for no other reason than to give the fan base a breather from having to watch him play. Perhaps when a fly ball guy takes the hill, Brendan Ryan can start the game on the bench and the team can put out a better offensive unit, sacrificing a little defense on the infield. There are ways to get Luis Rodriguez some playing time, and I’m hoping Eric Wedge takes advantage of those opportunities.
Game Ten Recap
That was horrible, then awesome. Baseball is fun.
(I’m exhausted, it’s 2:00 a.m. – I’m going to bed. More tomorrow.)
Game 10, Blue Jays At Mariners
Hernandez vs Litsch, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
The Blue Jays are known for whacking the ball out of the park, but they have a lot more RH power than LH power, and with Felix on the mound and Safeco behind him, this is a good match-up for the M’s. Felix is always a good match-up, but this one especially so. Litsch is a classic Blue Jays pitcher – ehh velocity, throws a cutter, gets more outs than you’d think with his stuff. He’s not a strikeout guy, but against the M’s, you don’t have to be.
Jack Wilson is back in the line-up. Wedge says it’s over. Maybe, but his time here this year was limited anyway, and it’s hard to see that this little dust-up won’t accelerate the schedule for shipping him out.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Wilson, 2B
The Power Of Perception
The Baltimore Orioles are 6-3, first place in the American League East, and couldn’t have asked for a better start to the year. The Seattle Mariners are 2-7, last place in the American League West, losers of seven straight, and look like the same anemic bunch of can’t-hit-scrubs that we saw last year.
The Mariners are hitting .215/.285/.312, “good” for a 72 wRC+, meaning that their offense has been 28 percent below average once you account for the parks the team has played in so far.
The Orioles are hitting .216/.282/.348, which comes out to a 73 wRC+. Their offense has been 27 percent below average, basically the same as the Mariners.
However, the two teams have gotten to those lines completely differently. The Mariners have been a league average offense with the bases empty, while the Orioles have been the worst team in baseball at starting rallies (hitting a ridiculous .183/.235/.251 with no one on). Get a man on base, however, and the Mariners fall to a wRC+ of 32, while the Orioles soar to 145. With a man in scoring position, no one has been better than Baltimore, and only two teams have been worse than the Mariners.
Essentially, the few hits that the Mariners are getting have been spread out, so they’re not leading to runs or wins. The Orioles have bunched all of their hits together, so they’ve managed to get more from their offense than you’d expect given their overall production. Basically the same level of offense, but two dramatically different results, simply due to the timing of when the hits have come.
In general, teams don’t show much of an ability to get timely hits over large samples. Good offenses hit well with men on base, bad offenses do not. You don’t see teams sustaining these kinds of crazy splits. That’s good news for the Mariners (well, relatively good news – they’re not quite as bad as they’ve looked, most likely, but they’re still pretty lousy at hitting in general) and bad news for the Orioles.
This isn’t meant to be any kind of super serious analysis. The Orioles are probably a better team than the Mariners, and I’d almost certainly take their line-up instead. But, it is interesting to note how early perspectives can be so heavily skewed by something as simple as the timing of base hits.
Game 9, Indians At Mariners
Tomlin vs Bedard, 1:10 pm.
Not one to sit around and wait for the ship to right itself, Eric Wedge is putting out his let’s-try-something-new batting order, after watching the offense flail aimlessly for the last week. I’m just glad this means Luis Rodriguez gets a start. Normally, I’d say something here about the team running out eight left-handed bats in a row against an RHP, but Josh Tomlin has shown no platoon split so far in his big league career, and it’s not like the M’s have exploited platoon match-ups so far this year anyway. I’ll just say that I’m pretty sure we won’t end the year with two home runs, and it will be nice when Chone Figgins isn’t leading the team in round trippers.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Kennedy, 2B
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Langerhans, CF
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, LF
Gimenez, C
Game 8, Indians At Mariners
Fister vs Masterson, 6:05 pm.
Well, regardless of what happens, it’s nearly guaranteed to be more fun than last night, right?
I’ve referenced Justin Masterson a few times when talking about Michael Pineda, as he is the prototypical right-handed starter with a huge platoon split. Masterson throws from a very low arm angle which makes it really tough for right-handers to pick up the ball, but lefties get a nice long look at it coming in towards them, and the low arm slot makes it tough for him to throw anything that doesn’t dive in towards a left-handed hitter. Look for the M’s left-handed bats to be able to work a bunch of walks tonight, and if they can string together a few extra-base hits, they could put up some runs.
It will be an absolute miracle if Miguel Olivo gets a hit off Masterson, however.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF