Game 63, Padres at Mariners
Happy Felix Day!
King Felix vs. Clayton Richard, 7:10pm
Felix Hernandez makes his first start since back tightness cost him some time (and may have contributed to his awful start against Chicago. It gave us all a good scare, but the layoff may have had a benefit: Felix watched himself on video for what sounds like the first time, and he diagnosed several mechanical flaws. A healthy Felix who’s also a mechanically-sound Felix would prove pretty tough to deal with, especially for San Diego and their below-average offense.
Opposing him is southpaw Clayton Richard, who had a minor break out in 2010 when he put up a sub 4 ERA and FIP in about 200 innings. Of course, once you park adjust, a “sub 4” ERA isn’t all that amazing; he was actually below average according to Fangraphs’ ERA- and FIP- stats. Still, for a back of the rotation guy, he was very good and seemed to be getting better. Since then, injuries and ineffectiveness have pushed him towards replacement level.
He throws a two- and four-seam fastball, a cutter/slider and a change-up. When he came to the Padres he was a ground-baller, using his sinker often with only an occasional four-seamer. From 2010-2011, he used the four-seamer much more often, which makes some sense in a park like Petco, but thus far in 2012 he’s gone back to the sinker as his most-used fastball. This has boosted his GB rates, but it’s not helping him recapture his pre-injury strikeout numbers. His GB and K% and B% now make him seem like a poor man’s Rick Porcello, or perhaps a poor man’s Jerome Williams and I *still* can’t believe I’m calling anyone a poor man’s Jerome Williams. Man, I wished Williams pitched for someone other than Anaheim.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Montero (DH)
4: Seager (3B)
5: Smoak (1B)
6: Olivo (C)
7: Saunders (CF)
8: Figgins (LF)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: KING FELIX
Yeah, yeah, Figgins in LF. Kyle Seager is batting clean-up, and we all sort of nod and scan the rest for problems. Can you imagine this a year ago? Kyle Seager is batting clean-up, for the Mariners, and we’re OK with that. This is absolutely not a knock on Seager, who’s been the M’s best hitter in 2012. I’m just marveling both at how smoothly Seager’s transition to the majors has gone…and how bumpy the road’s been for Jesus Montero (to say nothing of Justin Smoak).
In other news, the M’s have gone over slot to sign 3rd round pick Tyler Pike and 2nd rounder Joe DeCarlo. The combined amount puts them pretty close to the 10% threshold at which Serious Business occurs, so you’d expect that the M’s have a plan to underspend somewhere. Technically, they’ve underspent on 4th rounder Patrick Kivlehan and 7th rounder Taylor Ard, but I doubt those later picks put much of a dent in the overage for, say, DeCarlo. A half-million over slot never used to be worth a raised eyebrow, but the M’s clearly need to be careful now. If this is an effort to play hardball with Mike Zunino, then I don’t like it – having the overages public gives every bit as much leverage to Zunino as it does to the M’s. Because the M’s lose the slot amount if they fail to sign Zunino, they now absolutely MUST sign Zunino or they risk losing two draft picks. This makes me think they have something worked out with Zunino already, because if not, I can’t imagine anyone in the FO’s sleeping well.
Why Does Dustin Ackley Strike Out So Much?
In most facets of the game, Dustin Ackley has been exactly as advertised. He was drafted as a disciplined hitter who made a lot of contact, hit the ball into the gaps, and utilized his speed to rack up extra base hits. We expected that he’d draw his fair share of walks and get a bunch of doubles, and because he wouldn’t strike out that much, he’d hit for a high enough average to be a good offensive player even without a ton of power.
Guy who draws walks? Yep, he’s at 10.5% BB% in the big leagues.
Gap power? Yeah, he’s got 28 doubles and six triples in 147 career games.
Good contact rate? He’s at 84.1%, well above the league average of 80%.
Lack of strikeouts leading to high batting average? Uhh, no.
Ackley’s career major league strikeout rate is 21.1%, higher than the 19.1% league average during his time in the big leagues, and his batting average is just .263. Batting average isn’t a great way to evaluate a hitter, but mid-level power guys generally need to hit for a higher average to offset the lack of bombs. Ackley is just not getting as many base hits as was expected, and it’s pretty much entirely due to the fact that he’s striking out far more than he has previously.
In college, Ackley hardly ever struck out. Same thing in the minors, when his strikeout rate was about 13%. In the Majors, though, it’s a different story – for reference, Ackley’s K% this year is essentially the same as Miguel Olivo’s. So, what’s the deal?
First, let’s deal with the fact that this is a bit of an odd phenomenon. Guys who hit for as much contact as Ackley don’t strike out this often.
Remember how we said his career contact rate was 84.1%? To come up with something like an expected K%, I pulled all hitters who have at least 500 PA since the start of the 2009 season, and then filtered for players with contact rates between 83%-85%. This gives us 52 players and nearly 64,000 plate appearances, so we’re dealing with a pretty good sample size here. As a group, these 52 hitters made contact at the same 84.1% rate as Ackley, yet they only struck out in 15.2% of their plate appearances. In fact, Ackley has the highest K% of the entire group, and former Mariner Josh Wilson is the only other guy over 20%.
The relationship between contact rate and strikeout rate is not surprisingly quite high. In fact, the correlation between the two is -0.9, which gives you an r squared of 0.81, meaning that you can explain 81% of the variance in strikeout rate simply through a player’s contact rate. It is, by far, the strongest determinant of how often a player will strikeout. This isn’t news to anyone who has watched baseball very long, of course, but it’s worth a reminder – guys who make contact more often than most strike out less often than most. At least, guys not named Dustin Ackley.
So, the first takeaway from this is that we probably shouldn’t expect Ackley to keep striking out this often. Contact rate is the skill that drives strikeout rate, not the other way around, so Ackley has demonstrated the necessary ability to post an above average K%. That’s the number that’s likely to regress, not the contact rate. Consider that good news – Ackley’s current K% is probably unsustainable given his overall skills at the plate, and will almost certainly improve as time goes on.
That doesn’t really answer the question of why he’s been striking out so much, though, or what he needs to improve upon in order to cut down on the strikeouts. For that, let’s turn back to our trusty friend The Heat Map, which will show us where Ackley is good at hitting the ball and where he’s not.
This plot compares the run value Ackley creates on different pitch locations to the league average hitter, with warmer colors (red, yellow, etc…) being good zones and colder colors (blue, purple) being problem areas.
Ackley is really good against pitches down and in, which is the sweet spot for a lot of left-handed batters. He’s less good against pitches down and away, but that’s pretty common as well, and not a lot of pitchers can consistently locate in that part of the strike zone, so it’s not a huge issue. The real issue, though, is that middle-up area – Dustin Ackley has consistently been beaten with high fastballs, and he knows it. In today’s News Tribune, he tells Larry LaRue:
“Over time, you see the adjustments pitchers are making on you. I see more high fastballs with two strikes. Sometimes they come in hard with two strikes,” Ackley said.
“Not every time, and not every pitcher. That would make it an easier adjustment on my part. Pitchers are smart. They don’t approach you the same way each time.
“I’ve chased their pitches too often.”
The data supports Ackley’s observation – he’s seeing a lot of high hard fastballs with two strikes, and he’s not hitting them all that often. The good news is that he’s aware of this issue, and he’s a talented enough hitter to do something about it. Realistically, he probably just needs to stop swinging at so many pitches up in the zone, because that’s not an area that is consistently called strikes, and it’s an area other hitters generally let pitches go by. Here’s Ackley’s swing plots versus league average, broken out by left-handed and right-handed pitchers.
Vs RHP:
Vs LHP:
Ackley hardly ever swings at pitches on the outer half of the plate, especially if they’re coming from a left-handed pitcher. That’s just a zone he leaves alone, because he knows it’s a weak area for him. But look at his swing rates on pitches middle-up and middle-in – he swings at those pitches a lot, and with the exception of the ones on the inner corner, he doesn’t make very good contact with those pitches.
This is the adjustment Ackley needs to make in order to get his strikeout rate and his contact rate to line-up. Once he closes that hole, and stops getting beaten on high fastballs so often, his strikeout rate will go down and his performance will go up. The good news is that he’s shown the discipline, contact skills, and gap power that should make him a quality hitter and a valuable piece to build around. He’s just a weak spot that pitchers are currently exploiting, and it’s undermining his overall performance at the moment. I wouldn’t call this a long term concern, especially given that he has identified the issue on his own and is working to fix it – in fact, I’d be encouraged that this probably won’t last that much longer.
Don’t be disappointed with Dustin Ackley. He’s still the cornerstone player that he looked like a year ago. He just isn’t a finished product quite yet.
Reconfiguring the Roster
Off days are the perfect time to reevaluate the roster and see if there are any changes that need to be made. Often times, non-injury related roster decisions are made when the team isn’t playing, which gives the organization more time to work out the logistics of making the moves and allows the new guys to not have to rush to the park the day they get called up. So, today, Jack Z and company are likely considering what to do about a couple of spots on the roster. I figured I’d be helpful and offer up some suggestions.
1. Option Hector Noesi to Triple-A, call up Erasmo Ramirez.
On May 22nd, Ramirez got bombed for 11 runs, seemingly putting his chances of getting a callup on hold for a while. Since then, however, he’s given up four runs in three starts, throwing 21 1/3 innings in the process. His K/BB ratio over those three starts is 20/4, and he’s ready for another big league audition, but this time as a starting pitcher. So, why should Noesi be the one to go down to Tacoma? Like Steve Delabar, he’s shown some potential, but needs to work on his breaking ball, and that kind of specific improvement is better worked on with regular innings down in the minors than in the big leagues. Demoting Noesi isn’t about punishing him for pitching badly – though he has done that – but more about giving him an assignment of things to work on, and an environment in which he can actually do that with some effectiveness.
2. Have Blake Beavan and Hisashi Iwakuma switch roles.
Iwakuma is already pitching multiple innings every five days thanks to Beavan’s lousy performances, so getting him stretched out to start again shouldn’t be a big deal, and he’s earned a shot to show what he can do as a starting pitcher. Despite the manager’s decision to shove him into the far corner of the roster, Iwakuma has actually flashed some legitimate potential as a pitcher, posting a groundball rate of 58.1% while also getting strikeouts from 19.4% of the batters he’s faced. Pitchers who can get both ground balls and strikeouts are generally quite good, and while Iwakuma will likely perform a bit worse when asked to face a line-up two or three times in a game, he’s pitched well enough out of the bullpen that he deserves a chance to show what he can do as a starter. You could make a case for Beavan being the guy to go back to Tacoma instead of Noesi, but as a guy who can just come in and throw strikes, he’s well suited to the pitch-in-blowouts role that Iwakuma has filled so far. He won’t hurt the team by coming in when the game is already decided, and it won’t harm a more talented player’s development to have them sit down in the bullpen for a week or two between outings.
3. Option Alex Liddi to Tacoma, recall Casper Wells.
Liddi has played in two games in June, and with Kyle Seager still hitting well, he’s not even getting himself in the line-up against lefties anymore. At this point, the Mariners are just carrying him as an injury replacement guy, and that’s a waste of time that could be spent working on his development in Tacoma. Meanwhile, the team has used Chone Figgins in left field against lefties in lieu of Mike Carp, and not surprisingly, he’s been terrible in the role that belonged to Casper Wells pre-demotion. The team can rectify both situations by recalling Wells and giving him a bit of a look in left field over the next week or so, as they’ll have to make a decision on their outfield when Franklin Gutierrez returns next week.
With Guti’s return, Saunders will likely shift to left field on days that Guti is able to play (which almost certainly won’t be everyday, at least not for a while), meaning that Carp will be relegated to playing a couple of times per week and serving as a pinch-hitter. However, his defensive limitations make him poorly suited for a fourth outfielder role, and the team would probably be better off with Wells functioning in that job. By giving Wells a call-up now and letting him get a few starts before Guti returns, the team could prepare the roster to have Carp go down to Tacoma when Guti is activated. Because Carp is out of options, they’d have to disable him and call it a rehab stint, but given his early season shoulder injury and the fact that he’s hitting .175, that shouldn’t be too hard to sell. This would only buy him three weeks in the minors, but it’d be three weeks of regular playing time in which you would hope he could hit well enough to earn his way back to the big leagues.
Yes, that means Chone Figgins would stick around for a while longer, but by having Wells on the roster, his role would essentially just be Seager’s back-up and occasional pinch-runner, so the team wouldn’t actually end up using him much. The anti-LHP line-up would improve with Wells bat back in there, and they’d have more defensive versatility than if Carp served as the fourth OF. Carp may feel like he has nothing more to prove in Tacoma, but the reality is that Saunders has probably taken the left field job in Seattle for the near future, so Carp’s back to being a 1B/DH in Seattle if he wants to play regularly. To get at-bats there, he’ll have to show he can hit well enough to be worth playing over Justin Smoak at first base, or he’ll need to fill the DH role after Miguel Olivo is traded/excised/accidentally left in the desert, and he’s not going to be able to get his bat going again by watching Saunders and Gutierrez from the bench.
The two rotation moves are easy and should be obvious to anyone, even Eric Wedge. The team knows that Gutierrez’s return is getting closer and they’ll have to adjust the roster to compensate for his arrival, and they can begin doing that now by swapping out Wells for Liddi and preparing Carp to head down to Tacoma when Guti is activated. Hopefully, we’ll see at least a couple of these moves before tomorrow’s game against the Padres.
Minor League Wrap (6/4-10/12)
I’m probably not going to be around to respond early in the day because it’s supposed to be nice out and having no school-related obligations, I’d rather be outside.
Some quick hits on the week:
* Taylor Ard and Patrick Kivlehan have signed. Kivlehan got to watch the no-hitter as his introduction to Seattle baseball. Both are reporting to Everett and the first exhibition game will be Wednesday while the first (road) game is on Friday. I’ll have a roster preview together once that information becomes available to me.
* The Rainiers were 0-6 this week.
* Danny Hultzen is still awesome.
* Gabriel Noriega had a double this week, which is more doubles than he’s had in any previous week this year.
* The Generals have eight all-star representatives. The Lumberkings have three. Everything else is coming later.
* Churchill talked promotion candidates. “PROMOTIONS!” ‘And raises!’ “…” ‘…Promotions.’ “PROMOTIONS!”
* I’m going to be on KRKO talking baseball stuff on Saturday at 11:15 am. It may even be a regular-ish (though bi-weekly) thing, except for the fact that I’m going to be out of town on the 30th. But it could definitely happen more than once.
To the jump!
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Game 62, Dodgers at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Chad Billingsley, 1:10pm
A day after facing Clayton Kershaw, the M’s face another Dodger pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Chad Billingsley’s been a consistently good starter since 2007, relying on a straight four-seamer, and mixing in a two-seamer and cutter. He also throws a slurvy breaking ball – it’s classified as a slider, but it’s thrown at curveball velocity and he uses it more against lefties than righties.
Blake Beavan’s pitching for his job once again. Erasmo Ramirez took a no-hitter into the 8th in his last start in Tacoma (when he was upstaged by the M’s combined no-no), and Danny Hultzen seems to be utterly overpowering the Southern League. Hector Noesi seems likely to yield to one of the minor leaguers, but Blake Beavan may make it hard for the M’s to keep Hultzen in the minors if he pitches like he did in his last start.
The M’s line-up’s got six lefties, but Billingsley doesn’t have big platoon splits, so while it’d be nice to see Jaso, this isn’t a terrible line-up. Mike Carp needs to pick up the pace with Casper Wells and Franklin Gutierrez in Tacoma – when Guti’s ready, he’ll either force Saunders to LF full time or be yet another so-so corner OF, something the M’s aren’t short of. Carp’s injury may have prevented him from getting a real shot at the starting job this year, but his K rate isn’t helping things either.
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak (1B)
6: Saunders (CF)
7: Olivo (C)
8: Carp (LF)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: Beavan
Game 61, Dodgers at Mariners
Vargas vs. Kershaw, 4:15.
Obviously no no-hitter today (for either team). The righthanded lineup gets sent out there against the lefty Kershaw.
RF-L Ichiro
LF-B Figgins
DH-R Montero
1B-B Smoak
2B-L Seager
C-R Olivo
CF-L Saunders
3B-R Liddi
SS-R Ryan
Random no-hitter tidbits
Soon-to-be division mates, the Houston Astros used six pitchers in a combined no-hitter on June 11, 2003. Soon-to-be division mate (with the Rangers) Roy Oswalt started that game, but only lasted 1 inning, so Millwood outdid him easily. After that you had Pete Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Billy Wagner. Curiously, just like this game, it was in interleague play (against the Yankees). Since the Astros were up 2-0 before Oswalt even left and 4-0 in the third, it was a little more like a bullpen day for manager Jimy Williams, and it took Eric Wedge using his relievers like Tony LaRussa to catch up.
It’s interesting to think about who the Astros, 87-75 that year, had in the bullpen together. Lidge, Dotel, and Wagner, all closer material then or later, with two of the three being truly ace relievers for at least a year or so. At that point, though, Lidge was just a rookie. Out of Furbush, Pryor, Luetge, League, and Wilhelmsen, well there’s a decent chance that three guys out of that group get a run as closers, and again one of them is a rookie. I suppose you can take Dotel’s record-tying 4 strikeouts in one inning and set it up against Pryor being credited with his first big-league victory in a no-hitter.
The other random tidbit concerns Millwood. He joins Vida Blue and Kent Mercker in managing to start a combined no-hitter while also having his own no-hitter outright. Blue in the AL, Mercker in the NL, and Millwood crossing leagues in between (that is, his complete game no-hitter was in the NL, and he was pitching for an AL team this time, though again, interleague play).
Did somebody mention that combined, the Mariners and their AAA and AA affiliates only gave up 4 hits tonight in 3 games? Unfortunately, after Erasmo Ramirez had a no-hitter for 7-2/3 innings, the only two hits he gave up were a single and a home run in a 2-0 loss (Delabar retired the side in order in the ninth). Meanwhile for Jackson, Danny Hultzen lost his “no-hit bid” in the first inning, but only gave up one other hit, one walk, and struck out 8 before giving way to Carter Capps for a perfect ninth.
Game 60, Dodgers at Mariners
Kevin Millwood vs. Nate Eovaldi, 7:10pm
A few weeks ago, Nate Eovaldi was one of a group of interesting pitching prospects toiling for the Dodgers AA affiliate. He’s made a number of starts for LA in 2011 and now 2 here in 2012, but the Dodgers’ #2 prospect is still trying to find his feet in the big leagues. His ERA’s great so far and his FIP’s encouraging, but he’s given up 37 free passes to 45 Ks in his brief MLB career.
His calling card’s a live fastball, which has averaged 95 mph so far. He pairs this with a slider, a rare curve and a rarer change-up. This is a classic power pitcher arsenal, but he hasn’t been able to miss many bats – his fastball’s getting about as many whiffs as Blake Beavan’s, and his slider right about the same as his fastball. It’s easier to see generating weak contact when you’ve got good stuff (or the raw materials that can be forged into great stuff), but it’s tough to miss few bats AND walk lots of batters. Again, so far, it hasn’t hurt him, but it would be nice if the M’s could make it hurt him. I feel like I say this every time, but: make him throw strikes, M’s. His arsenal seems like he should have sizable platoon splits, though he didn’t show them in the high minors. They’re huge thus far in the majors, but the sample’s miniscule. Still – this is a day for John Jaso.
Lineup:
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (C)
5: Smoak (1B)
6: Saunders (CF)
7: Jaso (DH)
8: Carp (LF)
9: Kawasaki (SS)
SP: Millwood
It’s not over yet as I type this, but you should check out what Danny Hultzen’s doing in Jackson. I’ve been on the record that I think Taijuan Walker is ultimately the better prospect, and I was a bit concerned about Hultzen’s control issues in April, but the roll he’s on is something to behold. He needs to move up a level, probably for his next start.
Tacoma Rainiers Gamethread
With the M’s off tonight, why not check in on the Tacoma Rainiers and rehabbing CF Franklin Gutierrez? Brian Sweeney gets the start for Tacoma vs. Salt Lake, who are starting ex-Mariner David Pauley. If that’s not your idea of an awesome match-up, let me sweeten the pot a bit: injured Angels reliever LaTroy Hawkins is set to make a rehab appearance of his own. How about THAT? Gametime’s 7:00pm.
Gutierrez leads off tonight, and the line-up also includes Carlos Peguero, Carlos Triunfel, Luis Jimenez and Mike Wilson. If you’re in the South Sound, tune in to AM 850 to hear the peerless Mike Curto’s call. You can listen through the magic of computers via MiLB gameday audio (which is free) here. You’re probably going to want to do so given this exchange with Jeff Sullivan. If you’d like to follow along via GameDay, that link’s here.
Michael Saunders
Saunders, you may have noticed, is kind of on fire. In his last eight games, he’s 18 for 36 with seven extra base hits, two walks, and only two strikeouts. He’s gotten three or more hits in five of those eight games, something he’d only ever done four times in his career up until a week ago. He’s got his season line up to .277/.346/.462, good for a .353 wOBA and a 128 wRC+. Overall, he’s now been the Mariners best hitter this year.
So, the obvious question is what’s changed? How did Saunders go from being the worst hitter in baseball a year ago to being the team’s best hitter this year? He’s now covering the plate and hitting the ball to all fields.
In spring training, we saw Saunders hitting the ball with authority to the opposite field, which is something he’d never been able to do in the big leagues before, and we were encouraged that perhaps he’d learned how to go the other way with pitches on the outer half of the plate. Last year, Dave Allen graphed Saunders struggles with pitches away, so this had been a huge problem for him, and gave pitchers an easy way to get him out.
To Left: 34 PA, .147/.147/.176, -19 wRC+
To Center: 32 PA, .172/.167/.172, -14 wRC+
To Right: 45 PA.333/.333/.571, 150 wRC+
Now, here are those same numbers from this year.
To Left: 30 PA, .300/.300/.433, 102 wRC+
To Center: 43 PA, .548/.535/.976, 321 wRC+
To Right: 71 PA, .310/.310/.507, 126 wRC+
Last year, Saunders was a productive hitter when he pulled the ball, but he hit like a pitcher when he didn’t. This year, Saunders is still productive when he pulls the ball, but he’s hitting like Babe Ruth when he hits it to center field and is still an average hitter even when he goes to left.
Prefer pictures to numbers? Here’s the run value of swings from Saunders based on pitch location last year, with warmer colors representing better performance and purple representing places where he was about as good at hitting as you or I.
See that big giant purple hole on the outer half of the plate? That was was Saunders huge weakness.
Now, here’s this year’s version of that same chart.
Those big purple spots? All gone. Saunders has basically closed the two giant holes he had in his swing, and is now able to hit balls on the outer half to left field and pitches on the inside corner to center field, instead of just trying to pull every pitch he’s thrown. He’s still pretty good at hitting that down-and-in pitch to right, but that’s not the only thing he can do anymore.
This improvement means that you don’t see a huge change in his plate discipline stats – his contact rate is only slightly higher than it was last year, and he’s actually putting the bat on pitches in the strike zone at pretty much exactly the same pace he was a year ago. However, the difference is what he’s doing when he does make contact.
Saunders is still a pull hitter, and he’s pulling the ball more often this year than last, so he hasn’t really changed his approach at the plate. He’s simply no longer useless on balls he doesn’t pull, which means that opposing pitchers can’t just pound him away-away-away and watch him weakly roll a ground ball to second base.
This specifically shows up against left-handed pitchers, who throw cutting fastballs and sliders that run away from left-handed batters and are often located on the outer half of the plate. Last year, Saunders was hapless against LHPs, hitting .143/.169/.161 – that’s one extra base hit and two walks against 21 strikeouts in 61 trips to the plate. This year? .283/.345/.528, with seven extra base hits and five walks against just 13 strikeouts in 58 trips to the plate. He’s actually been better against lefties than he has been against righties, which is pretty amazing considering that he was an automatic out against southpaws a year ago.
All that said, Saunders probably won’t be able to keep this level of performance up. His BABIP is currently .348, which is at the very top of the range that people can sustain for long periods of time. ZIPS expects that his BABIP will be a slightly above average .308 mark over the rest of the season, which sounds about right for a guy who runs pretty well and hits the ball hard from time to time. A .308 BABIP with his strikeout rate and power means that he’s probably going be an average or maybe slightly below average hitter going forward.
But you know what? Michael Saunders as an average hitter is still a huge win for this franchise, and it’s not impossible that he keeps improving and holds onto more of his gains than we might think. If he keeps hitting for the power that we’ve seen lately, he’ll be a really nice player. The contact rates are always likely to keep him from being a star, but at this point, Michael Saunders is probably the best outfielder in the organization. The fact that we’re saying that right now is pretty amazing, given how unbelievably awful he was last season.
When Franklin Gutierrez comes back, Saunders won’t be the full time center fielder anymore, but he’s played well enough to deserve an everyday gig. With Mike Carp and Ichiro both struggling and Guti unlikely to be able to play everyday, there will be plenty of playing time to go around, but given what he’s done lately, Saunders should be the one guy who sees his name in the line-up card every day from here on out. He’s earned the right to keep playing regardless of what anyone else is doing.