Yes, Nick Franklin Seems Familiar
In the table below, one of the players is 2013 Nick Franklin, while the other player is teammate 2013 Kyle Seager. Which is which? Why don’t you go ahead and look it up yourself, and then take a moment to reflect on the fact that you are apparently a profound and spectacular misser of points.
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 0.287 | 0.286 |
| OBP | 0.345 | 0.348 |
| SLG | 0.485 | 0.478 |
| ISO | 0.199 | 0.192 |
| BABIP | 0.324 | 0.316 |
| BB% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| K% | 19% | 17% |
| GB% | 32% | 36% |
| wOBA | 0.360 | 0.358 |
| wRC+ | 134 | 133 |
| O-Swing% | 22% | 25% |
| Z-Swing% | 58% | 57% |
| Swing% | 41% | 41% |
| Contact% | 84% | 83% |
Don’t know where it’s going from here, but most good novels start with good chapters.
Game 89, Red Sox at Mariners
King Felix vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm
Local boy Jon Lester faces the M’s ace in the best match-up the series tonight. Felix has been Felixing now for quite some time, staving off velocity loss, the occasional injury scare and wear-and-tear-related decline to post four consecutive excellent seasons, with a fifth half completed. These five years, 2009-2013, come after several more where he was merely ‘very good,’ of course. Jon Lester’s tenure as one of the best pitchers in the American League also began in 2013, but it’s well and truly over now, after a large step backwards in 2012 and stagnation in 2013. His fastball, which averaged 95mph in 2009, is now in the 93mph range, and the cutter he’s used as his outpitch is less effective than ever. Lester also uses a change and curve, and while the curve wasn’t bad early in his career, it’s clearly been his third- or fourth-pitch since 2009 or so.
None of this makes Lester a terrible pitcher. He’s still capable of getting strikeouts and grounders, and wasn’t as bad as his ERA made him look in 2012. Unlike many pitchers, Lester’s peak lasted more than a season or two, and he’s still adding value in the years following it. But barring a miraculous turnaround, it’s starting to look like Lester’s finished as an elite starter. It’s the sort of thing that makes you reflect once more about how strange and wonderful it is when a pitcher’s able to sustain greatness for a long period of time. Regression, age, attrition and even advanced scouting all pull pitchers back towards their less transcendent peers, and mostly succeed. A handful refuse, and through a combination of adaptation and talent, continue their run.
Line-up:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Bay, RF
7: Smoak, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Saunders, CF
SP: Felix Hernandez
Dustin Ackley gets the day off against a tough lefty…so that Mike Saunders can face him. Hmmm.
The M’s double play combination looks great, but of course it was about a month ago that M’s fans still held out hope that Dustin Ackley would reclaim his spot at 2nd and spend a decade getting on base and playing surprisingly good defense. In “it’s not just the Mariners” news, the Athletics DFA’d Adam Rosales and called up Grant Green, the ex-SS/ex-CF who moved to 2B and is hitting well in his second tour of the PCL. There are a lot of story lines in this – from Green finally finding a defensive home to the A’s middle infield depth (remember Hiroyuki Nakajima anyone?) shriveling – but the one I want to highlight is that the A’s finally gave up on their one-time 2B of the future, Jemile Weeks. Weeks debuted in 2011, just like Ackley. In his half-season, he posted a 110 wRC+ and if his walk rate and power were minimal, he looked to have well above-average contact skills. Weeks regressed so badly in 2012 that he was sent to the minors, and began 2013 there. A few weeks ago, both Weeks and Ackley were PCL 2Bs, trying to recapture their hitting stroke, and then watched as other prospects moved past them. And so, just like Ackley, Weeks is now attempting to learn center field.
Tyler Pike, Luiz Gohara and James Paxton highlight a prospect-rich day in the M’s minor leagues.
Jeremy Bonderman And The Harsh Reality
Jeremy Bonderman is a miracle. Not so much in the classic sense, not so much according to the definition of the term, but Jeremy Bonderman slipped off the major-league radar, and then he re-emerged. Pitchers aren’t supposed to do what Jeremy Bonderman did. Pitchers aren’t supposed to get hurt and disappear, then start throwing again and make it all the way back to the bigs out of effective retirement. And to do it with the local team was only a plus. Bonderman had some of his thunder stolen by Scott Kazmir, who’s another improbable story, but Bonderman was supposed to remain a part of baseball history, not a part of baseball’s present.
Now the Mariners have designated Bonderman for assignment, clearing room for Lucas Luetge and, probably, later, Erasmo Ramirez. Bonderman’s comeback is probably finished, and the Mariners had been making noise about how Ramirez wasn’t far off. Again healthy, Ramirez has earned a promotion. Bonderman earned a dismissal, posting some of the worst numbers in the league. Though his fastball got back into the 90s, Bonderman exits with baseball’s second-lowest strikeout rate, and as baseball’s only pitcher with more walks than whiffs. What Bonderman did was pitch again, in the majors. What he didn’t do was pitch consistently, reliably well. Fans will welcome Ramirez back, as he’s thought to be a part of both the present and the future. With every additional talented young player, this team becomes more and more interesting.
Bonderman, objectively, was one of baseball’s best stories, considering the long odds he faced. Good stories tend to be all about underdogs, about players emerging from unusual circumstances, and Bonderman hadn’t pitched since 2010. I’d like to say that I was all about giving Bonderman an extended chance. But I know I didn’t want him in the rotation, and I know I’m not disappointed by this latest news. Everyone loves an underdog, but in sports, that isn’t enough in and of itself.
Bonderman’s gone, and before him, Alex Liddi was shipped away. Liddi is the game’s first Italian, by nature and nurture. Tom Wilhelmsen left the game to travel and tend bar and get himself high, and it looks like now he might be re-claiming his familiar closing role after a period of struggles. Steve Delabar was a teacher in high school before he was a pitcher for the Mariners, which came before he was a pitcher for the Blue Jays. Incredible stories, all of theirs. But what we all feel more than the stories is the performance, and when the performances haven’t been good, the patience has worn thin. Revealed is a simple and binary truth.
Players are either for the team, or against it. Not literally, but players are either helping or hurting. And so follows the mass opinion. We all want to believe we’re noble, magnanimous, deep in character, but for at least most of us, sports are easy. They couldn’t be simpler. We like teams, and we like players who help those teams. We have considerably less patience for players who just get in the way. It matters little where those players might have come from.
Oh, people eat stories up. If there’s some player with a great story on another team, he’s easy to root for from afar. If there’s someone on the current team with an interesting background, and if he’s good, people will happily spread that story around, they’ll tell their friends all about it. We love to believe good players are more than just good players, and so we look for additional reasons to like them, and like them more. But they have to be good players first. That’s when it matters how they are what they are.
Think of a story like fresh maple syrup. Most people love syrup, but they wouldn’t eat it out of the jar. It’s a topping, it’s supplementary, and it works best on something that’s already good. Syrup can’t save a lousy brunch. Syrup can’t save a burnt pancake. It’ll make the pancake taste a little bit better, but no one’s going to want to have more of the pancake. Syrup alone won’t determine how much you care for a meal.
What’s best for the team is what’s best for us. What’s best for the team is winning, and as much as we want to think of ourselves as higher thinkers, winning’s the priority, winning over all else. With a winning team, you find more things to like about it. With a losing team, maybe there are the occasional bright spots, but what you want most is for the team to stop losing. I know I feel like the wrong level of human for not giving Jeremy Bonderman more support, given his background, but I don’t root for the Mariners because this guy escaped from the streets, or because this guy lost a sibling to illness. I root for them because I want them to win, and that makes me feel absurdly simple, but fandom is simple, as complicated as it is.
A compelling story is great, but its resonance is directly proportional to the quality of the player it’s attached to. This is the way in which most fans operate, and it’s one of those things that’s difficult to reflect on, because it demonstrates the silliness of the whole entire exercise. In theory we want sports to be about people, but we really want sports to be about winning, and then we’ll take the people we’re given and make the best of the assortment.
Jeremy Bonderman was a baseball miracle, and now that he’s gone, the Mariners should be a better team. And that Erasmo Ramirez? Rare player from Nicaragua, he is.
The Seattle Raul Ibanez’s Host the Boston Best Fans Evah
| MARINERS (39-49) | ΔMs | RED SOX (54-36) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -9.0 (18th) | 1.4 | 32.8 (5th) | Red Sox |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -14.2 (24th) | 2.6 | 30.0 (2nd) | Red Sox |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 9.1 (11th) | -2.0 | 19.5 (7th) | Red Sox |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 5.6 (9th) | 1.1 | -0.1 (18th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -8.5 (15th) | 3.1 | 82.3 (3rd) | RED SOX |
Jeremy Bonderman is no more a Mariner, having just been designated for assignment. Taking his roster spot for the time being is reliever Lucas Luetge, but he, or someone else from the bullpen, is sure to go shortly for Bonderman’s rotation replacement. Erasmo Ramirez is the obvious choice, but I suppose there are other feasible options like returning Blake Beavan to a starting role.
I was at Bonderman’s last home start, Sunday versus the Cubs. I haven’t attended many games this season, but somehow that one felt very typical of the 2013 Mariners. The Mariners, including Ibanez, hit some dingers, but three home runs directly resulted in only four runs scored and the Mariners batted 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position while the Cubs went 5-for-11. I ended up spending a decent amount of the middle innings just wandering around the stadium as the Mariners were getting worked over by Edwin Jackson. In the end, they made it exciting, but in the end, they also lost. It was a very fitting game.
Game 88, Mariners at Reds
Joe Saunders vs. Bronson Arroyo, 10:10am
I’ve learned to avoid the phrase “well, it can be worse than yesterday’s game” but hey – Bronson Arroyo gives up just as many long balls as Joe Saunders, so…go M’s?
I feel like I’ve written this about each of the Reds’ starters, but Arroyo’s fortunes are strongly tied to his HR rate. OK, *every* pitcher’s fortune is tied to his HR rate, but since Arroyo doesn’t strike many out and limits walks, it’s pretty the only thing with season-to-season variation for him. In 2011, he yielded an absurd 46 homers, and was therefore a replacement level pitcher. In 2012, he gave up 26, and was a bit above average. It’s got to be weird for a contending team to count on a guy throwing 88mph fastballs up in the zone and hoping they stay in the park, but hey, a contending team picked up Joe Saunders for the stretch run last year.
Arroyo’s a true junk baller, throwing 55-60% off-speed and breaking stuff, with a change and a curve thrown most often. He’s backed off his change-up usage since that awful 2011 season, when he gave up 15 HRs on the change-up alone. The curve’s been a bit better, but because his change isn’t great, he’s shown just massive platoon splits in his Reds’ career. On paper, or in pitch fx’s xml, Arroyo looks incredibly beatable, but then you look and he’s got a fairly good FIP and an ERA under 4 for the 2nd straight year at Great American Ballpark. He’s got to be one of the most frustrating pitchers to lose to, so don’t lose to him, M’s.
Now this is a very good line-up given the opponent:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Ibanez, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Chavez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Ackley, CF
9: Joe Saunders
All lefties except Zunino. Not bad.
Tai Walker starts for Tacoma today, and Edwin Diaz is on the bump for Pulaski.
Arrivederci, Alex Liddi
About an hour after belatedly posting about trading international bonus pool slots, the Mariners decided to give us all an object lesson. Recently DFA’d 3B Alex Liddi’s been traded to Baltimore along with the M’s 3rd bonus pool slot in exchange for the Orioles’ 2nd slot. This bumps up the total bonus pool for the M’s, theoretically allowing them to grab a better prospect.
On the face of it, this is a poor return for the Italian. I know, I know, I overrated Liddi in part, so I *would* say that, wouldn’t I? But Eric Thames had similar contact issues and played worse defense at a position lower on the defensive spectrum, and he was DFA’d at the time of his trade to the exact same Orioles club – and he returned a very good org player in Ty Kelly. Kelly’s not exactly Nick Castellanos, but that seemed like a fair deal for both sides. In this case, Alex Liddi appears to have been traded for just shy of $75,000 dollars to spend on a Venezuelan 16 year old. We’re a few days past the anniversary of Felix Hernandez’s signing with the M’s, so it’s not like I’m categorically against signing Venezuelan 16 year olds, but c’mon. People always talk about trading someone for a bag of baseballs, but this return is crying out to be translated into bags of baseball terms.
The O’s are trying to collect the set of failed Mariner prospects, having picked up Trayvon Robinson in spring training (for Robert Andino), then grabbing Eric Thames a week or two ago (for Ty Kelly), and now Liddi (50 bags of 100 baseballs @ $15/ball). The AL East has been a popular destination for M’s cast-offs, with Shawn Kelley of the Yankees striking out nearly as many as Steve Delabar for Toronto, while Mike Carp enjoys a breakout season in Boston.
See you later, Alex Liddi. I know it was tough being a 3B in this org behind Kyle Seager, but, uh, you see who Baltimore’s got at 3B, right? Here’s hoping Machado moves back to SS when JJ Hardy’s contract is up and Liddi gets a chance to at least back up at 3B. The O’s could actually use more IF depth with Ryan Flaherty/Danny Valencia the current back-ups. And here’s hoping the M’s made this move with a particular prospect in mind, and that this is part of a calculated effort to sign someone they think is worth it. Given the minimal impact of this move on their bonus pool, I’d tend to doubt this interpretation, but who knows.
Game 87, Mariners at Reds
Jeremy Bonderman vs. Mat Latos, 4:10pm uh make that 1:10pm pacific
It’s been raining like crazy all morning in Cincinnati, but it may hold off long enough to get the game in. If they play, the M’s face right-hander Mat Latos, the ex-Padre who was solid in his first year in Cinci (and Great American Ballpark) in 2012, and is enjoying an even better 2013 season.
In spacious Petco Park, Latos used a good, hard four-seam fastball along with a blizzard of sliders. He mixed in the occasional change and curve, and also threw a sinker occasionally, but his bread and butter was a mid-90s four seamer with essentially zero horizontal movement. Since moving to the not-so-spacious GABP, he’s thrown quite a few more sinkers instead, and now the four-seamer is reserved mostly for RHBs. Latos’ fastball is really somewhat strange, as his extreme over-the-top delivery gives it slight arm-side movement. 99.9% of pitchers have glove-side run on their fastballs – more on sinkers, less on four-seamers – and that’s why pitches like cutters can be effective. Similar velocity but an opposite break is a good way to confuse hitters. Latos’ fastball has about 1″ of horizontal movement *away* from righties, which looks an awful lot like the 2″-3″ of horizontal movement his slider gets. The trade-off is that his over-the-top, old-school pitching machine delivery generates a lot of “rise,” or vertical movement – this can minimize platoon splits and occasionally generate more whiffs. His release point is essentially directly in the center of the plate, and well above 7′ – it’d be interesting to see if this straight-line-from-the-rubber-to-the-plate approach gets him more called strikes, as umpires don’t have to guess where a pitch coming in from the right or left side crossed the plate.*
Latos’ change-up isn’t a great pitch, so he uses a fair number of sliders to lefties as well. That’s part of the reason why, despite his over-the-top fastball, he’s always had normal platoon splits. His FB’s generated good results against lefties, but his sinker and change have not. He’s given up 5 HRs to lefties this year, all on the the sinker and change. Thanks to his slider, he’s been a very effective pitcher against lefties, with about 21% Ks since moving to Cincinnati, and a good walk rate. Like Mike Leake, a portion of his success this year is due to incremenetal improvement in his K:BB and a big improvement in the ever-volatile HR/FB rate, but Latos is legit: he’s got a BABIP over .300 and a FIP under 3, pitching is a tough park. The M’s have a challenge today, and they’ll be without Nick Franklin, who bunted a ball off of his knee in yesterday’s game and looked like he was moving in pain the rest of the game. Brad Miller slides to 2B and Brendan Ryan starts at SS.
1: Miller, 2B
2: Chavez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Saunders, LF
6: Zunino, C
7: Ackley, CF
8: Ryan, SS
9/SP: Bonderman
Didn’t end up making a separate post about it, so I should mention that the big international signing day, July 2nd, recently passed, and the M’s have signed a couple of Latin American prospects. Baseball America ranked OF/IF Greifer Andrade the #21 prospect eligible to sign this year, and the M’s signed the Venezuelan last week. The M’s also nabbed Dominican catcher Onil Pena for just under $400,000. Just as with the amateur draft, each team has a bonus pool – the amount they can spend to sign players, with fairly severe penalties for exceeding it. This year, the bonus pools are based in part on a team’s record in the previous year, so the Astros had a lot to spend and the Nats/Yanks having quite a bit less. In a new twist, the Collective Bargaining Agreement assigns values to slots within a team’s bonus pool (more like the draft) as opposed to an undifferentiated mass of money – and, importantly, allows teams to trade those slots. The Cubs made the first trade for international bonus space when they sent Scott Feldman to Baltimore for Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta. The cash coming to Chicago allowed them to get the top two international free agents available, OF Eloy Jimenez and SS Gleyber Torres. If you’re interested in the international market, you’re probably already reading Ben Badler’s coverage at BA -it’s outstanding. And don’t miss Dave’s post at Fangraphs on the precedent-setting Feldman deal.
Erasmo Ramirez got the win last night for Tacoma, but had one of his worst outings of the year in doing so. The Nicaraguan walked 6 in 5 1/3 IP, gave up 7 hits and lot of loud contact, and struck out 4. He left having surrendered 2 R, and that moved to 3 when Bobby LaFromboise gave up a HR to the first batter he faced. His command was off the whole night, and he looked like he didn’t trust his change-up, going with the breaking ball instead even to lefty hitters. Oh well. Brandon Maurer starts tonight for Tacoma at Salt Lake.
* This theory is hurt by Felix Hernandez’s history. Felix also throws a straight four-seam FB with very little horizontal movement, and he’s famously one of the most victimized pitchers out there – he gets an inordinate number of called balls on pitches located within the pitch fx strike zone. Some of that has to do with the crew of catchers the M’s have employed, and some of it has to do with his darting, devilish change-up and sinker.
Game 86, Mariners at Reds
Aaron Harang vs. Mike Leake, 4:10pm
Aaron Harang was once a near-elite pitcher for Cininnati, averaging nearly 5 fWAR per year in his three-season peak from 2005-07, but a combination of health and aging has left that peak an isolated, sort of bizarre outlier in a journeman-type career. He topped 2 WAR only once outside of those three years, and while he hasn’t exactly been awful, his status as the cream of the DFA crop is sort of understandable at this point. It’s the sort of precipitous drop that cries out for an explanation – why did a guy throwing 230IP per year and averaging about 5 WAR suddenly turn into a 1-2 WAR #5 starter? Harang himself points to a four-inning relief appearance midway through his 2008 campaign as the major turning point. Indeed, he’d been pitching decently through late May ’08 when he pitched the 9th-12th in a game against San Diego, but he faded badly the rest of the season, struggling with a HR problem that became an unwanted calling card for him.
Cininnati’s Great American Ballpark is a great hitter’s park, with insane HR factors according to Statcorner (look at the RHB factor!), but the fly-balling Harang had fought his home park to a draw during his peak. In only one season though (2006) did he post really noticeable home/road power splits. Even after his homer problem started in earnest in late May of 2008, it wasn’t something linked to GABC – he gave them up everywhere. His opponent today, Mike Leake, stands in stark contrast to Harang’s ecumenical spirit.
Leake’s got a great ERA this year, and as Eno Sarris noted, it’s not that he’s been incredibly lucky. He’s running a normal-ish BABIP, and while his K% and BB% are very close to career averages, they’re both slightly improved. The big difference is in his HR rate. Even though he’s a slight ground ball pitcher, Leake’s struggled with HRs in the past – his HR/9IP is far and away a career best, and is actually half what it was in 2012. Not surprisingly perhaps, his home park isn’t driving that change. He’s still giving up homers at home, but his road HR/FB and HRs allowed have fallen dramatically.
Is it sustainable? I’d tend to doubt it, but that’s sort of the sabermetric stock answer, isn’t it? Scott Weber and Sarris both note that he’s got a slightly different pitch mix this year, using more change-ups/curves and less sliders. That’s a possible driver of an improved HR rate, but there are two problems there. First, a chunk of the difference probably’s due to the batters he’s faced. In 2011, he faced more right-handers than left-handers (362-331), so it’s not surprising that he threw more sliders overall. This year, he’s facing more left-handed hitters (222-200), and so it makes sense he’d throw fewer sliders and more changes. That doesn’t explain 2012, but maybe he’s a slow learner. Second, it would help the theory if his slider was a particularly bad pitch for HRs – it’s not. He’s given up HRs on 3.8% of at-bats ending with a slider and 4.9% of at-bats ending on a change (again, this makes total sense when you remember what hand the batters in these ABs presumably hit with), and 3.7% of at-bats ending with a curve. That plus his fairly normal HR/FB at home lead me to think that his true-talent HR rate is pretty much where it’s always been – his command is still excellent, but when he makes a mistake, hitters have been able to punish him.
Interesting line-up today:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Saunders, rF
8: Ackley, CF
9/SP: Harang
The M’s get an extra lefty bat with Saunders in right in lieu of Bay, I suppose. It also helps the M’s rest the aging, Yuni-destroyed legs of Endy Chavez, which is among the many things I never thought I’d be writing this season.
I mentioned Scott’s article above, which reminded me: Scott Weber, Patrick Dubuque et al have been doing great work at Lookout Landing of late. Completely different place than it was when Jeff/Matthew ran it, which is to be expected, but good stuff.
Good day in the minor league system with Erasmo Ramirez making a start in Salt Lake, Victor Sanchez pitching at home for Clinton, and Thyago Vieira pitching for Everett.
Go M’s
Game 85, Mariners at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Martin Perez, 5:05pm
Happy 4th of July – sincerely hope everyone enjoys the holiday. Canadians, I know you just celebrated, but I think you really get into the spirit of July 4th by blowing off work and celebrating again. I celebrated Canada Day in a quiet, understated way by having some red wine and a sensible dinner at home – I like to think you appreciated the gesture. Today’s not really about “quiet” or “understated” however, so have a beer and yell at the Rangers on TV. Or whatever else it is you’d like to do today (freedom!).
It’s fitting that the M’s are playing in Texas, somehow. Though modern-day Texans lustily celebrate today’s holiday, they’ve less reason to celebrate than those of us in more civilized lands. It’s true of course that Washington wasn’t an original colony, and there wasn’t much of a population here when the US celebrated its centennial. But I like to think we’re celebrating some enduring values, some principles, when we dust off our copy of the Declaration of Independence. It’s the call to reason, the clear, sober delineation of grievances and a demand of redress, not of blood or vengeance. Many point out the myriad ways in which the country founded by people who wrote the federalist papers, the constitution and the declaration has failed to live up to those values. Fair enough, but I’d like to think we can ALL come together in the celebration of universal natural rights. All of us except Texans, maybe.
Texas was created as a Republic, bitterly divided between those who wanted to gradually join the Union, and those who wanted to stay a republic, drive out Native Americans and march west to the sea. Eventually, the unionists won out, but the victory proved temporary. Texas was one of the original seven states of the Confederacy; less than 20 years after joining the union, they took up arms against it. Following *that* defeat, they continue to observe Confederate Memorial day as a state holiday. I’m all for having holidays. I’m drinking a beer and I’m not going to work right now. But it seems a bit odd to really celebrate the 4th of July seven months after Confederate Heroes day*.
Martin Perez, as I’ve mentioned before in these previews, was a Top 100 prospect for what felt like a decade. A rough introduction to AAA in 2011 was followed by a rough start to 2012, culminating in a disastrous start in Tacoma in which the likes of Scott Savastano battered a laboring Perez to a pulp. After a regroup and work with the Rangers’ coaches, Perez started to put things together down the stretch – aided by the fact that his velocity ticked up a bit. He touched the mid-90s routinely as a teen and into his early 20s, but was in the low-90s early in 2012. When he debuted with Texas he was averaging 92-93, and has progressed further this year, as he’s sitting at about 94 with his four-seam fastball.
A brilliant outing in relief last year – against the M’s – saw him rack up 5Ks in 4+ innings, still his career high (tied with a 6IP start vs. Oakland), and pushed him into the starting rotation in September. His results there were mixed, and he wasn’t able to lock down the 5th spot in the Rangers’ rotation this spring. Injuries and great run of form for Round Rock have led to another opportunity, though, and he appears to be capitalizing – he’s coming off six shutout innings against a good Cincinnati team. Perez’ success has come without the aid of strikeouts, and without much of any success at all against righties. His FIP’s OK thanks to a very low walk rate and fantastic luck on HR/FB, but his K rate’s worse than Blake Beavan’s 2012 mark because he’s got nothing to throw to righties.
Last year, he tried a curve ball along with his slider and change, but he’s largely scrapped that in favor of the change in 2013. The change isn’t a terrible pitch, but it’s not exactly a swing-and-miss pitch, and unlike last year, his fastball’s not fooling any right-handed hitters. He’s kept it in the park, but BABIP and HR/FB won’t make up for actual stuff. That said, scouts have been raving about Perez’s stuff for years, so it’s possible he’s got more stuff than he’s shown thus far. Still, a full-strength M’s team would be a decent match-up, as a 2-3-4 of Franklin, Morse and Morales would presumably trouble the Venezuelan. But the M’s *aren’t* at full strength, and filling out a line-up that reflects Perez’s weakness means giving Brendan Ryan a start. Ah well.
1: Bay
2: Franklin
3: Ibanez
4: Morales
5: Seager
6: Smoak
7: Chavez
8: Blanco
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
The M’s are going for their first sweep in Texas since September of 2001. Do it for America, Mariners!
The Rainiers are in Salt Lake, with Brian Sweeney on the hill. Roenis Elias is pitching right now for Jackson in Pensacola, and Andrew Carraway’s making a rehab start in Everett tonight (he threw four hitless innings against Spokane five days ago).
* In bitter, Texas-sized irony, Confederate Heroes’ Day sometimes coincides with Martin Luther King day.
Game 84, Mariners at Rangers
King Felix vs. Derek Holland, 5:05pm
Happy Felix Day!
For reasons that no one fully understands, close losses in games Felix pitches are felt much more keenly by a large segment of the M’s fanbase than by Felix himself. I love this team, but if I was Felix, I might’ve…well, *explored* alternatives to a long-term extension here. I cannot imagine how amazing it would be to live as an incredibly wealthy person in Seattle. And maybe that’s enough – in the grand scheme of things, tough losses to Jeanmar Gomez are whatever’s beyond first world problems. Maybe Felix’s personality is such that he genuinely doesn’t mind. He can see how offensive futility eats at players (like Brendan Ryan), at managers, and fans – maybe he’s made the decision that bitterness isn’t worth wasting time on, and in any event, he can afford any and all distractions he wants. So if not for Felix, the M’s offense owes a good stretch to *us*. It sounds stupid to frame it that way, and frankly, it IS stupid. This is entertainment; if it isn’t entertaining, we’re supposed to find alternatives, not invoke some bizarre obligation on the part of the entertainers.
Still though, this whole thing seems cruel when you step back from it. The M’s acquire, develop and showcase a singular talent – someone who justifies every ticket to the stadium by his presence. Then the club surrounds him with a succession of some of the worst offenses in history. We’re now in the somewhat odd position of being able to compare and contrast different styles, different modes of futility, as we watch Felix labor on heroically. The context of a pennant chase or contention has been stripped from a jaw-dropping percentage of Felix’s starts, especially if you include the beginning of years like 2011-12 and probably 13 where they were in de jure but not de facto contention (if you can even talk about contention in April). So I cheer for Felix every five days, without context. But take all that away, and the failures like five days’ ago look senseless. It’s like I bought my kids a ticket to “Bambi” and it was a 2-hour long, ultra-slow motion clip of Bambi’s mother being shot. So yes, I have a grievance. Yes, I am complaining to my entertainers instead of finding better entertainers. You mess with Felix, you mess with me. Stop messing with Felix, even if Felix doesn’t mind.
Derek Holland is an enigma, in that he voluntarily attended a Counting Crows show this year, and then got himself ejected from the theater. Also, his career is dominated by variance in his home run rate. He came into the league a fire-balling lefty without much command, and MLB hitters punished him. But as he developed his slider and change, and as his command improved, he appeared on the verge of stardom – his 8+ inning 2-hit shutout performance in the 2011 World Series seemed to be the moment that would propel him to ace status, or that not-quite-ace-which-is-still-handsomely-remunerated status that CJ Wilson had. Instead, he was pretty bad in 2012, with 32 HRs allowed in less than 180 innings and just 1.7fWAR (adjusted for Arlington).
This year, his HR/FB rate is less than half of his career average, so as you probably know, he’s got the fourth-most fWAR of any pitcher in baseball. It’s not just about HRs – his K% is up, though it’s not appreciably higher than it was in 2010. But, coupled with a slight drop in walks, and Holland’s pitched like the ace many thought he’d be in 2012. As a lefty with a big fastball and a good slider, many observers thought he’d have to refine his change-up to avoid big platoon splits (like many tough lefties, Holland faces a steady diet of right-handed batters). Instead, his change-up is still the same work-in-progress it’s been for years. In 2010, righties hit .256 and slugged .558 on the change-up (small-sample warning) – since the start of 2012, they’ve hit .318/.557. The pitch doesn’t generate whiffs, and it never did. Instead, he’s throwing his slider to righties, and it’s worked just fine. I’ve talked about some in the context of Brandon Maurer, but there are a few pitchers out there (most of them lefties, I’d say), who are able to get away with throwing opposite-handed hitters a lot of sliders and have success. Madison Bumgarner for one, or CC Sabathia for another. Holland may be in that group now.
Line-up:
1: Bay
2: Franklin
3: Ibanez
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager
6: Smoak
7: Ackley, CF
8: Zunino
9: MIller
SP: FELIX
Tyler Pike’s on the hill for Clinton in the Midwest League, while James Paxton starts for Tacoma at lovely, warm Cheney Stadium. The Rainiers always have their big fireworks show on July 3rd, and it’s probably the best attended game of the year – it’s a tradition that long pre-dates the Rainiers or the association with the Mariners, and it is, somewhat oddly, one of the things I find myself missing about Tacoma now that I don’t live there anymore.