2010 Clinton Lumberkings Preview
In the Bavasi years, the Midwest League roster was frequently the most interesting squad to start any given season, featuring a variety of high-potential teenagers from the international market and maybe a high school kid or two drafted in the early rounds. This year’s Clinton Lumberkings are similarly interesting (ultimately losing out on talent to West Tenn), but are constructed in a completely different way. There’s only one teenaged international free agent on the roster, and only four international players total, an unusual total among recent years. Similarly, there are only three teenagers on staff, which seems kind of reasonable when you think about. Even without these boom-or-bust styled youngsters, there’s plenty to watch from the ’09 draft picks that dominate the roster.
MiLB Roundtable: March ’10
We’re bringing it back for another go, seeing as how it was good fun last time and a way of getting our thoughts out in a different setting. The idea is that we’ll be doing this more often during the regular season this year, maybe even monthly.
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Fangraphs Does the M’s Prospecting Thing
Early on in my blogging career, I paid attention to a lot of the national outlets when they published their prospect lists. The bigger operations that everyone recognizes as institutions like Baseball America, the one-man operations that were about a half-step up from Geocities site design, I published and discussed all of them, perhaps in a desire to present as much information as possible and use it as a venue to talk about why x-source over y. In time, as my own knowledge of the system deepened and the Seattle blogosphere developed their own cadre of analysts, I stopped looking at 95% of them. Most of them failed to do much more than look at numbers, which ended up with ludicrous claims like Bryan Lahair as the team’s #1 prospect, or more recently, putting Erasmo Ramirez in the top ten. Others tried to get clever by putting the top dollar signing of the last international period in their listing, which was often based more in hope than reality. Among the better ones, there were still those that would make claims that general scouting knowledge of the system might otherwise eliminate. Given that background, the number of national outlets one reasonable should be looking at, you probably don’t need your whole hand to count through.
With that in mind, I’m going to bring to the table a new national resource, FanGraphs, which is not terribly new to most of you, but new insofar as it doesn’t have a lot of top ten prospect lists under its belt. Marc Hulet’s meandering tour of the league has finally arrived in Marinersland, a rather dangerous ground for a national analyst to be treading on these days. Hulet opted to exclude international signings of the past season, a defensible move, but he also decided that ’09 draftees would not be part of the discussion, which is a bit bolder. The list he provides looks like this:
#1 OF Michael Saunders
#2 C Adam Moore
#3 IF Carlos Triunfel
#4 3B Alex Liddi
#5 RHP Michael Pineda
#6 IF Matt Tuiasosopo
#7 LHP Nick Hill
#8 SS Gabriel Noriega
#9 RHP Maikel Cleto
#10 OF Johermyn Chavez
The overall effect is not a bad one. The top three is logical and respects Triunfel on scouting details where others threw him out for numerical ones, and Liddi at four, while not ideal, is okay given the parameters he outlined. Hulet also earns some points for putting on Tuiasosopo on merit of him being a reasonably good prospect on the fringe of the majors, which is something that BA flubbed on two years in a row, and coming to reasonable conclusions on Pineda. He deserves credit for hitting those points.
The back four are more easily disputed. I’m with Dave on the matter of Nick Hill and think he’s made enough progress to have some kind of major league future ahead of him. He also hits the groundball point, which is important because the lower velocity might otherwise be misinterpreted. The suggestion that Hill would make the club as a left-on-left reliever is a more questionable analysis. Hill, like a lot of southpaws who partially rely on the strength of their change-up, has some issues with left-handed hitters. While he did have a higher BABIP contributing to that this past season, his career numbers read the same way. Left-handed batters just hit him more easily, and harder as well, particularly last season. It’s not that Hill “isn’t helpless against right-handed hitters”, it’s that he’s provably better, and has been every season since he debuted. This means that his value as a pure “left-handed reliever” is questionable, so much of his value ends up tied into starting, where he’s had few opportunities to prove himself as of yet. I would be hesitant to put him as the next pitcher after Pineda.
As he comments on Noriega, he narrowly skirts an issue that many national sources have had by mentioning his bat without using his slugging as a springboard to make predictions about his future power, which most scouts seem to doubt will become average. He does, however, raise another issue in raising the possibility that he may fill out and move to third, as he’s acknowledging the fact that he’s the system’s best infielder right now. This is a bit of a leap, as it’s something that hasn’t really been mentioned so far as I know since his debut year. There were rumblings as to whether or not he would be a shortstop initially, but I would attribute that to sketchy international scouting information more than any flaws in Noriega himself, so the conclusion is a bit out of date.
Cleto is a player that made a number of top ten for a lot of people, a testament to the abilities that brought him into the organization in the first place. It pleases me to see that people have still remembered this even as his visa issues limited him to less than thirty innings in his new organization. From a physical aspect, I would count him among the more talented pitchers in the organization, and his fastball is easily one of the top three on the farm, but I find it difficult to avoid comparing him to fellow trade acquisition Mauricio Robles who, while not as big (and ergo, a little riskier), is left-handed, has run better FIPs thus far, and provides better secondary offerings, and those last two come in spite of his inconsistent mechanics to date. I’d slot Robles above Cleto right now, though I know not everyone would agree with that assessment.
Finally… Johermyn Chavez. Those of you who have read my piece (I can’t reiterate too much here) would know that I have legitimate concerns about his future and think the comparisons to Wlad Balentien were often unfair to Wlad. To add to that, Wlad was a fringe CF throughout the minor leagues and as he’s improved over the years has gotten to the point where he was above-average corner outfielder this past season, and can expect to stay there in the future. Even though the projections of him may have been a little ambitious this year, it’s really unfortunate that he’s losing time to Johnny Gomes in Cincinnati. But to get back to Chavez, acknowledging his flaws, would you put him over a much more physical player like Halman, or a less talented player that’s almost certain to have a major league career, like Carp? I can’t say I would, but Hulet acknowledges that he’s a long-time Chavez fan, so to each their own.
These are all details that you would probably get out of local coverage over national coverage. This is not to really diminish the scale of Hulet’s undertaking, which is incredible as a one-man operation, but to do this level of coverage leads to inevitable sacrifices. Still, if you’re looking to see how the prospecting world at large views our system, you could do a lot worse than Hulet, and I’d number him among the better analysts out there for the depth he’s willing to go into.
The ’09-’10 Offseason and Player Development
This offseason has seen a shift in our expectations in terms of roster composition. Back around November, we talked about the possibility of running out multiple rookies on the field, and how many would be too many for the team to remain competitive. Now those positions have been locked up to the point where the team is likely to field few rookies, if any, and not likely as starting players.
Where in left field, we thought we might see Saunders roaming, we now have the Bradley/Byrnes/Langerhans cerberus aiming to snap up most of the at-bats. At third, Tuiasosopo’s window was shut by the acquisition of all-star Chone Figgins, though I doubt many would complain over that. Carp has been rendered extraneous at first by the acquisitions of Garko and Kotchman. The Bedard re-signing will eventually push Hyphen and Snell back, and likely pushes Fister and Hill to Tacoma as a by-product of the rumored six-man bullpen. Even at catcher, as much as the org has praised Adam Moore, it seems probable that Bard might come in and take the back-up job during spring training. Prospects of all kinds, from future contributing regulars to more fringe types, have been shut out. One might get the impression that the organization is deemphasizing player development in favor of bringing in known quantities.
I’m here to tell you that this conclusion is false. The M’s are just as strong on player development as they ever have been, and I’ll tell you why. Read more
M’s Sign Int’l SS Pedro Okuda
You may have heard recently that the Mariners have traded for some guy, former Cy Young winner or something. I don’t know, Dave seems to be pretty stoked though, and I take this as a good sign. Speaking from the perspective of the resident prospect guy, we dealt spare parts from our depth and lost little that’s likely to haunt us, and from that standpoint alone the deal is awesome. I really am excited too, but I leave the analysis to the professionals.
Another smaller deal that went down today was that the Mariners signed nineteen-year-old shortstop Pedro Okuda to a minor league contract. He’ll report to the Mariners’ Venezuelan academy come spring.
Pedro Okuda… it’s quite a name isn’t it? There’s a story behind that though. There were waves of Japanese immigration to South America in the early part of the century, and one of the things they brought with them was baseball. For the longest time, it was a niche game, as the locals were more interested in futbol, but it gradually gained in popularity to the point where the nation’s youth got a hold of it. In Brazil, the academies that pop up will require that players learn both Japanese and Portuguese in order to adequately communicate on the field. I imagine it’s the same with Spanish elsewhere. It’s still a market that’s opening up, but as you get out of Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia, and into places like Argentina and Brazil, the players that get signed usually have some Japanese ties.
The book on Okuda is this: Read more
’09 40-man Preview Extravaganza
We’re heavy into the award season now, but in the midst of that we also have a Nov. 20th deadline by which players must be added to the roster or risk being picked in the Rule 5 draft. The rules relate to the age a player was when they signed and what season their first contract was for. This year, we’re looking at HS draftees and the younger (eighteen or below) international players that were signed to 2005 contracts or college-aged or older players that were signed to 2006 contracts. The Mariners already brought on the big names like Moore and Saunders over the course of the season, so there really aren’t that many players left. Even so, they might hold off on bringing too many on board as next year looks to be a big one, with prospects like Triunfel, Liddi, Pineda, J.C. Ramirez (these last three signing contracts in ’05, but for the ’06 season) Gillies, Hill, Robles, and others needing to come aboard. Here is an inexhaustive list of who we might be looking at in the way of additions:
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LaRue Gets Front Office to Talk Prospects
Yesterday’s edition of the Tacoma News Tribune had Larry LaRue asking one of the more easily answered questions of the hot stove season, which prospects could contribute next season? The thought being that if players like Kelley and Jakubauskas broke through last year, well surely there would be someone else who could surprise as well. The first part is Zduriencik wading through the old tropes of prospect discussion: you can’t count on players until they’ve established themselves, no one will be given a job outright without work, and in our case, Tui, Moore, and Saunders are all coming to camp with the opportunity (emphasis) to win jobs. This much we already know. Easy though it is to say, one of the quick litmus tests you can run during prospecting season is to see which outlets include those names in the top ten and which are trying to be cute by loading the list with ’09 breakthrough players. But after those standard talking points are dispensed with, things start getting a little interesting. Take a gander…
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Reminder:
The AFL Rising Stars Showcase is on right now at MLB.com. You can watch it live without paying or signing up for anything. Strasburg has been scratched and the West is down 7-0 in the first, but the good news is that Ackley led off with a walk and Fields got the final out of the top half of the first.
Arizona… Parallel League?
A few weeks ago, as Dave was going over the list of players heading to the Arizona Fall League, questions were raised about the again-defunct Hawaii Winter League and whether there was going to be an alternative league in the works for younger/less experienced players. The good news is that ongoing discussions have led to the formation of the Arizona Parallel League for this season. The bad news is, unlike other parallel leagues in winter baseball (Venezuela, Colombia), the league is quite informal, and it’s highly unlikely that much news or statlines will be coming of it.
The gist of it is that the player development people for the teams that have complexes in Arizona all got together and decided that they were going to try for something a little more competitive than instructs. The teams that own the complexes, the Padres and the Mariners in Peoria, for example, will send out teams of roughly twenty players, each team sending five pitchers and five position players. The rules, however, are rather loose and if the Mariners only want their pitcher throwing to their catcher, that’s perfectly fine.
Games will be played at 12:30 pm on every weekday except Wednesday. If you’re already heading down for the Arizona Fall League, you may as well stop by and check it out, as you might see recent college draftees or various guys too young for the AFL, but too old for traditional instructs, so roughly High Desert, Clinton, Everett level.
And before anyone asks, no I don’t have a full list for the instructional leagues yet, just a few names.
(Cal League) Playoff Baseball
The Mariners are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, but so are all the teams in the AL Central coming into today, thanks to the weakness of their division. But, if you’re hungry championship baseball a few weeks ahead of schedule, without all the nastiness of a well-funded juggernaut steamrolling the plucky young up-and-comer, might I recommend giving the High Desert Mavericks a tune-in?
The Mavericks are in game three of their division series against Rancho Cucamonga, hated Angels affiliate, and have thrown consecutive shut-outs at Mavericks Stadium. Stephen Hensley allowed three hits and a walk while striking out ten in the first game, and in the second, Mauricio Robles, who came over in the Washburn trade, had two hits, a walk, a balk, and eight Ks through seven innings. Michael Pineda, who has been remarkably dominant since coming off the DL, takes the mound for the Mavs as they try to extend their scoreless inning streak and sweep the series. The one cause for concern is that the offense has “only†managed nine runs so far.
A likely championship scenario has the Mavs going up against San Jose, also looking for the sweep today. While the Mavericks have had by far the best hitting in the league, San Jose ranks at the bottom of hits, runs, and walks allowed, and combined for a league-high thirteen shutouts over the season. That series should begin on the 17th, and will undoubtedly be an interesting one.
Game time is the usual, 7:05 pm PDT.