Game 11, Athletics at Mariners
Godfrey vs Beavan, 1:10 pm.
Hey, you’ll never guess who is catching today. Even in a day-game-after-night situation, even with a right-handed pitcher on the mound, even with John Jaso sitting around screaming “hey, coach, over here!”… Olivo’s quickly reaching Jose Vidro territory at this point. I guess we can count our blessings that he’s not hitting cleanup. Now, we’ll just have to wait and see how long it takes Eric Wedge to figure out that he doesn’t belong in the line-up at all.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Saunders, LF
Olivo, C
Ryan, SS
Game 9, Athletics at Mariners
Hernandez vs Colon, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day! We’re dealing with a situation here at Haus Cameron (not related to my health, I’m fine, no worries there), so no commentary from me tonight besides “Welcome Back Mike Cameron”.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Montero, DH
Olivo, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Sherrill –> Disabled List, Furbush –> Mariners
After six hits (two of them HRs) and a walk in only ten batters faced, George Sherrill’s been placed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow problems. Sherrill’s never been a fireballer, but his average fastball came in at under 86 MPH so far, substantially lower than it was a year ago in Atlanta, and a far cry from the nearly 91mph he averaged in his first go-round with the M’s.
To replace him, the M’s have recalled Charlie Furbush, who’s worked in relief for Tacoma. In 16 batters faced so far, Furbush has K’d six and given up just one hit. He’s only walked two. At this point, I’d expect Furbush to be a big improvement, albeit in a spot that just isn’t that important. Lucas Luetge’s been impressive so far, so Furbush can divide the LOOGY appearances with the Rule 5 kid or he can work in long relief with Erasmo Ramirez.
What I Learned This Week
Ok, so it was both a week and about two weeks, but the M’s and their full-season affiliates have now played a couple of opponents each. This is a situation ripe for reading way too much into small samples, of course. I’m aware of the danger here, but hey, we’ve been waiting for months to have real games to look at, so what the hell:
1: Felix Hernandez has enough faith in his new cutter to throw it in “real” games. In theory, this ought to be something new that he can use against lefties who are used to a steady diet of his change-up. In practice, well, this. Felix put that pitch in a pretty good spot against a hitter who hadn’t shown a lot of HR power, so it’s hard to fault him for it, but Felix missed his target badly. This’ll be something to watch in his next start – if he’s able to command the pitch well enough to hit the black, or if this is going to be relegated to a side show; something to give hitters a different look, but not something used to get outs directly. I’m excited to see what he does tonight and how he mixes the pitch in against a line-up that’s seen it already.
2: James Paxton’s off to the best start of the three top prospects in AA Jackson. A week ago, he was absolutely dominant, striking out 10 of the 19 hitters he faced with (crucially) no walks. Paxton’s command problems didn’t hurt him in the Midwest League, but bouts of wildness popped up at times in his spring training outings, so it’s great to see what he can do when he’s not yielding free passes. His second start (this past Wednesday) was less impressive, as he walked a batter and ran a number of three ball counts which increased his pitch count and led to an early exit. His command wasn’t great, but he was able to get fastballs over when he needed to and struck out 7 of the 19 Tennessee Smokies that faced him. If 4 hits, 1 walk and 7Ks are what we get in a so-so Paxton start, then he might need to move up a level. He’s got things to work on, but he’s in the enviable position of being able to throw fastballs by people in 3-1 counts and feel pretty confident that if they’re hit, they won’t be hit hard. That approach probably won’t work in MLB and it probably wouldn’t be as effective in the video-game run environments of the PCL. I’d initially thought that Danny Hultzen might move quicker given his pedigree and the fact that he’s on the 40-man, but Paxton’s first week was eye-opening.
3: Danny Hultzen’s debut was a lot better than the box score may indicate; he K’d 7 hitters, generated a lot of ground balls (several of which went for hits), and his command issues may be a combination of nerves and a tight zone (Cameron Bayne of Birmingham, a guy with decent career walk rates, walked 5 in 4 2/3 IP too). I’m still worried that his arm slot might give him problems against good right-handed hitters, but righties weren’t a huge problem last week (it could be argued that the White Sox system doesn’t have anyone that could be described as a “good right-handed hitter”). 3 of the runs charged to Hultzen scored on Yoervis Medina’s watch, but the first two were legitimate. After a one-out single, Hultzen gave up a triple to a very flawed lefty in Birmingham’s Jared Mitchell, and then scored Mitchell on a wild pitch. He’s facing a slightly better line-up today in the Cubs AA affiliate so we’ll hopefully know more this evening. The game starts at 4:15 pacific (so, in just a few minutes), and it’ll be shown live on milb.tv.
4: The High Desert Mavericks are going to score a lot of runs. No, I’m serious. While their league and park are such that a random smattering of commenters here could be counted on to plate a couple runs per game, the Mavs have several great hitters with college experience. Last year’s Mavs had several very talented, high-ceiling hitters that were drafted out of high school and moved up through the ranks – Nick Franklin was the biggest name, but Denny Almonte and Danny Carroll were tools picks out of high school. This year’s team includes SS Brad Miller, Cs John Hicks and Jack Marder, IFs Stefen Romero and Steven Proscia. So far, the college guys are getting it done – they’ve scored over 8 runs a game, and are slugging .565 as a team. Yes, the park is silly in some ways, and yes, it’s difficult to properly evaluate anyone playing there, but this isn’t 100% park effect – the team has the fewest strikeouts and the most walks in the California League.
(Incidentally, if you have the twitters and want to follow High Desert, give Victorville Daily Press reporter Kyle Glaser a follow – @KyleAGlaser)
5: Kyle Seager’s pretty good. After his long HR yesterday, Seager’s got the team’s best wOBA and he’s K’d only twice in 29 plate appearances – the latter stat’s interesting, as the M’s led the league in both swinging strike rate and strikeout rate in 2011. These whiffs obviously weren’t balanced out by power, patience or much of anything. While I viewed Bill Bavasi’s bizarre antipathy to Ks as counterproductive (ahhh, Jose Vidro), the fact remains that the M’s couldn’t even get lucky on balls in play when they were incapable of hitting balls in play. Seager’s absurd sub-3% whiff rate will regress, but I think last season’s call-up undersold his contact ability. Again, the contact rate is perfectly fine, but it’s got to be accompanied by something more – and after a 446 foot HR off of a lefty, I’d say Seager’s showing signs that he can hit the ball with more authority than he did last year. Now that the line-up’s been De-Custed (and with Carlos Peguero recuperating), there are only a few whiff-prone hitters in the everyday line-up. Miguel Olivo’s the big offender, of course, but if this team wants to avoid shutouts in Arlington, Justin Smoak’s going to have to improve his plate discipline a bit more.
Game 8, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs Holland, 11:05 am.
So, today’s line-up is a little weird. It’s a day-game-after-night situation, so it’s not unusual to see some of the reserves play, but Wedge is also taking advantage of the fact that the team is facing a left-handed starter to get a couple of little used right-handed bats in the line-up today. So, if you’ve been wanting to see more of Casper Wells (as I have) and Alex Liddi (okay, not so much), then today is your day.
To make room for those two in the line-up, Saunders and Ackley take a seat, with Figgins moving to center and Seager shifting to second. Also, Olivo’s back in there at catcher, but against an LHP, they don’t really have a better option. Even after Jaso’s two hits last night, there’s no real value in having him in the line-up today – Holland would tear him up.
Figgins, CF
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 2B
Olivo, C
Wells, LF
Ryan, SS
Game 7, Mariners at Rangers
Millwood vs Lewis, 5:05 pm.
Eric Wedge has answered our prayers – Miguel Olivo is not in today’s starting line-up. Jesus Montero makes his debut behind the plate for the team, while John Jaso makes his first appearance of the year at DH. He’s hitting 9th – behind Brendan Ryan – which should tell you all you need to know about what Wedge thinks of him as a hitter, but, hey, Jaso and Montero are both playing and Olivo is not. I’ll take it any way I can get it.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Montero, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Jaso, DH
It’s Time For Miguel Olivo To Be Accountable
Eric Wedge is big on accountability, and last night, he benched Brendan Ryan for an issue that he chalked up to that very reason. We could debate the merits of this kind of public-punishment leadership style, but that’s probably another post. The reality is that Wedge has made it clear that if you screw up, your spot in the line-up is in danger.
Unless, of course, your name is Miguel Olivo.
The Mariners have played 53 innings of baseball so far this year – Olivo has been behind the plate for every single one of them. John Jaso is the only position player who has not yet seen any action in 2012, and it’s pretty clear that Wedge intends on playing Olivo just as frequently as he did last year, when Olivo made 120 starts and caught 1,064 of the team’s 1,433 innings. And it apparently doesn’t matter how many times Olivo fails to perform the basic fundamental tasks asked of a catcher – his playing time is just not in jeopardy.
Take last night, for instance. In the second inning, Adrian Beltre led off with a double to put a man in scoring position. Blake Beavan then got Michael Young to bounce back to the mound, and they were able to get Beltre out at third. Young was able to advance to second on the play, however, so the situation remained the same – man in scoring position, one out.
Then, on the 1-1 pitch to Nelson Cruz, Beavan threw this 75 MPH curveball:
The pitch was down in the zone and a little bit outside, but it was a fairly routine stop for any Major League catcher. Olivo stabbed at the ball rather than dropping to his knees (catching 101), and the ball got away from him, so Young moved up to third base. He would then score on an infield single by David Murphy, and that would end up being the only run in the game. It’s not fair to say that Olivo’s misplay was the only reason they lost, but it directly led to the only run the team allowed all night, and it is fair to say that Olivo has no excuse for not stopping that pitch.
You know, except for the fact that he’s apparently unwilling or unable to become a reasonably passable defensive catcher.
Miguel Olivo broke in to the Major Leagues in 2003, starting 98 games for the White Sox as a rookie. Despite being just a part-time player, he still managed to allow 8 passed balls, third most in the American League. Since then, here’s his season passed ball totals and where they rank in his respective league:
2004 – 13 (2nd)
2005 – 7 (in only 690 IP, dumped by Mariners at midseason)
2006 – 10 (1st)
2007 – 16 (1st)
2008 – 4 (injured, only started 56 games)
2009 – 10 (1st)
2010 – 10 (1st)
2011 – 11 (3rd)
Last year was the first time in five years that Olivo had been healthy and not led his league in passed balls. He was eclipsed only by Toronto rookie J.P. Arencibia and Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was tasked with catching knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, so in reality, his PB total requires a large asterisk.
And, as we saw last night, a lot of easily stopped balls end up getting classified as wild pitches by the official scorer, and Olivo doesn’t take any kind of official hit for those. You will probably not be shocked to learn that, in addition to the official passed balls, the Mariners threw 68 “wild pitches”, fifth most in baseball. It’s impossible to know just how many of those wild pitches were actually balls that Olivo should have stopped, but you can bet there were more than a couple.
Catching the ball is the basic fundamental skill required of the position – it’s why they’re called “Catchers”. Miguel Olivo is absolutely terrible at this, and has been for a very long time. He’s the active leader in passed balls by a mile – he has 92, the next highest is Ramon Hernandez at 78 – and he has almost twice as many as the #4 guy on the list. That guy, Yadier Molina, has almost exactly the same number of career innings behind the dish, coming out at 7,715 compared to Olivo’s 7,700. Molina has allowed 48 passed balls. Now, he’s the best defensive catcher in the sport, but we’re talking 44 extra passed balls, or about six extra PB every single year. And again, this doesn’t count the ones that aren’t called passed balls like the pitch Beavan threw last night.
If Eric Wedge is going to bluster about “playing the game the right way” and “being accountable”, Miguel Olivo should be on the bench today. In reality, he should be on the bench most days, as he is a disaster of a baseball player, and has no future with this organization. Since signing back with the M’s, he’s posted a .247 on base percentage. Two-Forty-Seven. He refuses to stop chasing pitches out of the zone, and is the easiest out in the line-up every single night. He’s abysmal defensively. He’s 33, and thankfully in the last year of his contract. That he’s still playing every day for a rebuilding team with a legitimate alternative (or two, if you think Montero is ready to catch occasionally) is a legitimate problem, and Wedge’s love affair with Olivo is not only costing the team wins but undermines this entire concept of accountability.
Miguel Olivo is perhaps of the least fundamentally sound player in the sport. He either cannot or will not improve on his obvious flaws. And yet, he plays. Every single day.
It’s ridiculous and it should come to an end. If Jack needs to release Olivo in order to get him out of the line-up, so be it. Olivo brings nothing to the table that can’t be easily replaced, and the team would be better off with him letting balls roll to the backstop in another uniform.
Game 6, Mariners at Rangers
Yesterday, the M’s got to face a guy making his US/MLB debut, and today they face Neftali Feliz who’ll be making his first MLB start. Feliz was one of baseball’s hottest commodities in 2008/9; he was acquired in the massive Mark Teixeira deal that essentially remade the Rangers, and Feliz quickly rose through the ranks to become a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He had the classic power pitcher’s arsenal and high-90s velocity, and it seemed like it was only a matter of time before he began laying waste to the AL.
The Rangers eased him in to the bigs in 2009 by using him as their set-up man in the bullpen. In 31 innings, he struck out 39 hitters and yielded 8 walks. The next season, the Rangers made the seemingly curious decision to keep him in the bullpen, this time as their closer. As much as it seemed counterproductive to keep your best pitching prospect limited to 1IP stints, it didn’t seem to hurt the club or the pitcher, as Feliz enjoyed another sub-3.0 FIP season and the Rangers won the pennant. In 2011, the Rangers again pulled the plug on a possible role change for Feliz and kept him in the pen, and they again won the pennant with the Venezuelan as their closer. But Feliz seemed like a different pitcher.
Instead of the good control he’d exhibited in 2009-10, he was something of a mess as his walk rate increased from under 7% to nearly 12%. His K rate continued to fall, ending the year at 21.4%, well behind the likes of Craig Kimbrel or Mariano Rivera, but also behind Grant Balfour, Matt Albers, Will Ohman and a scuffling Joakim Soria. A low BABIP (though he’s always had a low BABIP-against) helped his ERA, but his FIP was now a fairly pedestrian 3.57. This spring, the Rangers committed to moving Feliz to the rotation and they’ve stuck with it (Boston, you could learn something here), despite some scares like shoulder soreness this spring.
Feliz hasn’t really demonstrated big platoon splits the way you’d expect given his FB-SL heavy repertoire. He does throw a change, but it’s his fastball that he’s relied on thus far, using it about 80% of the time in 2010-11. The sudden wildness and a curious lack of strikeouts make him a real question mark for a team without many. Since these are the Rangers, even if Feliz struggles, it shouldn’t hurt their chances: they could always swap him out for Alexi Ogando who moved from the pen to the rotation last year with great results. Still, the M’s get yet another shot at an immensely talented pitcher who’s also strangely vulnerable right now.
On the other hand, the M’s are the one team who didn’t seem to notice that Feliz was suddenly human last year. The M’s were famously 0-28 with 13 Ks (about 1/4 of his overall strikeout total on the season) against him, and it says something that what jumped out at me the most from his line were the two walks (“Really? Someone got on base? I don’t remember that”). That said, it’s a new, Cust-less line-up the M’s are trotting out, and it’s one that gave Yu Darvish a rude welcome last night. They were patient, but they also punished mistakes – it’s sort of a truism, but that’s the approach they need to use against Feliz. Making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches and work hard early isn’t some novel strategy, but it’s particularly relevant when facing a converted closer who battled arm troubles in March.
The M’s line-up is loaded with left-handed hitters to counter Feliz’s slider; Miguel Olivo’s the only righty in the group. Jesus Montero returns from the stomach flu to DH, and Munenori Kawasaki’s in the line-up again at SS, as Brendan Ryan’s sore somewhere.
1: Figgins (LF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Ichiro! (RF)
4: Smoak (1B)
5: Seager (3B)
6: Montero (DH)
7: Saunders (CF)
8: Olivo (C)
9: Kawasaki (SS)
SP: Beavan
Gametime’s 5:05
Go M’s
Game 5, Mariners at Rangers
Noesi vs Darvish, 5:05 pm
It’s Yu Darvish’s Major League debut, so the Mariners are kind of an afterthought tonight. I had a chance to sit behind the plate for one of Darvish’s spring training starts, and his breaking stuff is ridiculous, so there’s a good chance he makes a lot of guys look foolish tonight. However, he did struggle with his fastball command all spring and seemed to live on the outer half of the plate, so the team would do well to make Darvish throw strikes before they go up there hacking. If they can get into good hitting counts, they can sit on a fastball and neutralize his secondary stuff to a degree. If he’s throwing strikes, they’re screwed anyway – at least patience at the plate will give them a fighting chance if he’s not sharp. Aggressiveness is exactly the wrong approach to take tonight.
There’s one line-up change as Jesus Montero is on the bench due to a stomach bug, so Dustin Ackley moves to DH and Munenori Kawasaki gets the start. I haven’t seen an official comment from Wedge on why Kawasaki gets the call over a guy who can hit – like say Casper Wells – but I’d imagine you’re likely to hear something about “experience” and “he’s seen this guy before”. Yes, Kawasaki faced Darvish in Japan, but he was a trainwreck. According to the M’s, Kawasaki hit .221 with two walks and 19 strikeouts in 88 plate appearances, an abysmal line that suggests that any information we should gain (which is none, really, but assuming you put any faith in batter-pitcher match-ups to begin with) from their batter-pitcher matchup is that Kawasaki can’t hit Darvish.
But, hey, that’s Eric Wedge for you. I wonder what would have to happen for Casper Wells to get some playing time? Seems like we’re not going to find out any time soon.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, DH
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Saunders, CF
Olivo, C
Kawasaki, 2B
Ryan, SS
Felix, Velocity, and Ground Balls
So, besides the Mariners stringing a bunch of singles together on Friday and Saturday, the main storyline to come out of the team’s first four games probably all have to do with Felix Hernandez. We knew his velocity was down in spring training, but it’s spring training, and he still blowing hitters away, so there didn’t seem to be much reason for concern. Then, the team went to japan, and Felix was still throwing in the 89-92 range, but again, he shut down the A’s with few problems, and the reduced velocity seemed to not be any kind of issue.
On Saturday night, though, Felix continued to throw in the low-90s with his fastball. For the first few innings, the results were still fine, but eventually the poorly located hittable fastballs caught up with him, and the A’s hit some balls really hard. But, more than the missing velocity, his location seemed to be the real problem.
I went into more detail this morning over on FanGraphs, but the short version is that I’d say his fly ball tendencies during his first two starts concern me more than the lack of top-end fastball speed. Felix’s best pitches have always been his off-speed offerings, especially his change-up. Unlike a guy such as Michael Pineda, Felix doesn’t need a mid-90s fastball to get hitters out. Even with very little separation between his fastball and change-up on Saturday, he still got eight swinging strikes on 26 change-ups, a ridiculous percentage even when facing a team like the A’s. Most pitchers would kill to have an 89-93 MPH fastball, an elite change-up, and two well above average breaking balls, which is what Felix was throwing on Saturday.
So, I’m not worried about whether Felix can get batters out with what he’s currently throwing. If it’s well located, he’d still have one of the best arsenals of any pitcher in baseball. But, if the diminished velocity sticks around, location is going to become key for him, and it’s not something that has traditionally been his strong suit. He left a lot of fastballs up in the zone on Saturday, and he’s previously been able to get away with that because those pitches have been 95+, but when they’re 92, they get whacked.
Felix’s command is better than it used to be, but it’s still not consistent from start to start. Hopefully, his velocity will come back and he’ll continue to be able to dominate with less than stellar command as he has through most of his entire career. However, if Felix is heading down the Tim Lincecum career path, and he needs to adapt to pitching off his secondary stuff instead of his fastball, he’s going to have to locate his pitches better. It’s easier to hit your spots at 92 than 95, so this might not be as difficult a transition as it sounds, but it’s one Felix may have to make.
Of course, he can make this all moot by coming out and firing 95 at some point in the next week or two, and I certainly hope that he does. But, velocity is a young man’s game, and it’s not all that surprising that Felix’s top end fastball isn’t what it used to be. The key for him to remain an elite starter will be figuring out how to keep getting the necessary sink and location to remain a ground ball pitcher, and use the secondary stuff to rack up the strikeouts. If he keeps pitching up in the zone like he did on Saturday, he might not be as King-esque as he has been in prior years.