Game 53, Orioles At Mariners
Fister vs Arrieta, 1:10 pm.
More day baseball for the M’s and a line-up change that should make most of you rejoice – Chone Figgins has been dropped to eighth in the order. Given his .169/.204/.202 performance in May, it’s fair to say this is probably overdue. Figgins has been absolutely atrocious this year, and so now we begin the phase of the plan where the team tries to figure out if any minor changes might revive him. First, they’ll move him down in the order, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll get some more time off to clear his head. This is generally phase one of the “guy loses his starting job” career path, and Figgins is going to have show some life pretty soon or I’d imagine Adam Kennedy will become the new starting third baseman when the team calls Dustin Ackley up in a few weeks.
The leash for Chone Figgins is getting shorter. They’re not going to let him keep producing negative value forever. He’s going to have to start hitting soon, or he’ll spend the last two years of his contract as an expensive utility infielder.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Kennedy, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Figgins, 3B
Saunders, CF
Minor League Wrap (5/23-29/11)
I don’t have an intro this week, just content. I’m trying to work on some sort of broad draft-related preview stuff, as this has quickly turned nebulous on us. The Dominican Summer League has indeed started, but I’ll probably tackle that next time as I’m not certain of the roster composition yet. In the meantime, if you really want some minor league stuff, check out Larry Stone’s output lately, where he’s talked about the youth movement the team has been trying to sell everyone on and gets quotes from Pedro Grifol on Erasmo Ramirez, Kyle Seager, Nate Tenbrink, James Paxton, Mike Carp, Carlos Triunfel, and Guillermo Pimentel. Ramirez is throwing a lot harder than he used to.
To the jump!
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Yankees At Mariners, Game 52
Vargas vs Sabathia, 1:10 pm.
If the Mariners win and the Rangers lose today, the M’s will stand alone in first place in the American League West. That’s actually kind of hilarious, when you think that:
Ichiro is having the worst year of his career.
Chone Figgins has actually been worse than he was last year.
Jack Cust has one home run.
Franklin Gutierrez has spent 84% of the season on the disabled list.
David Aardsma has spent 100% of the season on the disabled list.
Milton Bradley was so lousy that he got released and his replacements have been even worse.
Seriously, this isn’t an everything-that-could-go-right-has-gone-right situation. The M’s are getting sub-Mendoza line averages from three positions, have already swapped out their opening day left fielder and second baseman for replacements, and are once again putting one of baseball’s worst line-ups on the field. And yet, thanks to ridiculously great performances from the likes of David Pauley (!), the team is a half game out of first place on May 28th. Baseball. It’s awesome.
That said, the team has their work cut out for them today. The Sunday afternoon line-up is in affect, and there’s a lefty on the mound, so Cust, Kennedy, and Olivo are all getting the day off. The guy hitting fifth has three Major League hits, and oh by the way, C.C. Sabathia is pitching. Let’s hope Jason Vargas has some magic in him today.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Gutierrez, CF
Wilson, DH
Ryan, SS
Wilson, 2B
Saunders, LF
Gimenez, C
Yankees At Mariners, Game 51
Hernandez vs Nova, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
Life really will get back to normal eventually, I swear.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kennedy, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Yankees At Mariners, Game 50
Pineda vs Burnett, 7:10 pm.
Pineda has been unbelievably good so far, but tonight, I’d say he faces his first real test. The Yankees can hit, and their line-up is full of left-handed thumpers. Can he continue to pound first pitch fastballs over the plate against a bunch of good hitters? How will he avoid falling behind patient hitters who might not chase his breaking ball?
If PIneda dominates the Yankees tonight, it will be his coming out party, and you can expect him to get plenty of attention next week if he overcomes the test. It should be an interesting night.
Ichiro, RF
Rodriguez, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kennedy, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Tacoma Rainiers Doubleheader Game Thread
With the M’s on a travel day, check out the Rainiers double header tonight against the Nashville Sounds. Blake Beavan starts game 1 for Tacoma against Brewers fringe prospect Amaury Rivas. As usual, you can catch Mike Curto’s call on AM 850 in the south sound or streaming on-line here. Nashville’s mired in last place in their division, and so their manager decided to send in for some reinforcements. Here’s the line-up card he submitted to Tacoma for Game 1 (hat tip Mike Curto).
Game 2 features the M’s system debut of knuckle-baller Charlie Haeger. Haeger was signed as a minor league free agent late last year, but a back injury limited him to a single spring training inning. You may remember Haeger from his Dodger debut last year, when he struck out 12 Florida Marlins in 6 innings. Just 6 appearances later, he was DFA’d.
Patience
Walk Rate:
Mariners, April: 10.6%
Mariners, May: 6.6%
Offense, April: .235/.316/.339, .297 wOBA
Offense, May: .228/.282/.329, .271 wOBA
Runs Per Game, April: 3.9
Runs Per Game, May: 3.2
If anyone tries to convince you that the M’s more aggressive approach at the plate in the last month has been anything other than counter-productive, they’re wrong. If they point to the team’s winning percentage, simply show them this.
Runs Allowed Per Game, April: 4.36
Runs Allowed Per Game, May: 2.90
Unless you think the team’s hacking has made the pitchers better, there’s no case here. The Mariners need to swing less, not more.
Mariners At Twins Game 49
Bedard vs Duensing, 10:05 am.
The last few days, my life has been one never-ending Chone Figgins at-bat. We’ll try to return to normalcy soon.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, DH
Olivo, C
Gutierrez, CF
Kennedy, 1B
Wilson, LF
Ryan, SS
Wilson, 2B
What’s Going On in Tacoma?
Yesterday, someone on twitter asked what was going on with the Tacoma Rainiers’ starters’ ERA this year. The team ERA is nearly 5.40, over a full run worse than it was in 2010 – and that’s despite the fact that the 2011 figure doesn’t include the midsummer months. It’s not a BABIP thing: the picture’s largely the same using tRA or FIP. Obviously, the staff’s not exactly the same, and some of the guys who’ve pitched in both years look considerably worse from a scouting standpoint (Luke French, take a bow). The culprit’s pretty easy to identify: the staff’s hemorrhaging home runs.
In 2010, the Rainiers staff gave up 1 home run every 10.5 innings pitched. This year, it’s one per 7.6 IP. So far this year, teams have hit 63 home runs at the new Cheney Stadium through 22 games; that’s 2.9 HRs per game in Tacoma. Through 22 games in 2010, teams combined for 26 HRs, or 1.2 per game. One more crazy stat: through the first 22 games at Cheney in 2010, 9 were homerless. This year? None. Every game at new Cheney’s had at least one long ball.
Throughout its history, Cheney’s been one of the tougher PCL parks to hit homers in (check the park factors here or here). In 2011, it’s blowing the funhouse ballparks like Albuquerque out of the water: Despite video-game style HR factors (thanks in part to altitude), teams averaged 2.5 HR/game through 22 games last year in Albuquerque.
This isn’t about a dominant 2011 offense: the 2010 Rainiers led the league in home runs. It’s probably not about weather; you don’t need a baseball blog to tell you how cold and wet this spring’s been in the northwest. What’s changed since last year is the ballpark and the outfield walls. The OF dimensions haven’t changed at all, and the massive wall in CF (425 feet away) remains. The OF fences in left and right have been lowered, however. Rainiers announcer Mike Curto’s been keeping an unofficial tally of 2011 HRs that probably would’ve struck the wall in the old configuration, and he’s got 22 (probably 23 after today’s game). That is, a bit more than one ball per game has just cleared the new, lower walls at the new Cheney Stadium.
Personally, I just can’t see how lowering the fences would so radically change how the ballpark plays. My guess is that the new, much taller stadium has changed how wind moves through the outfield. That’s just a guess, but it makes more sense to me than the idea that teams would be battering the upper half of the walls in the old stadium. Seriously – if you cut the Safeco fence in half, or eliminated it entirely, would it have this kind of effect?
To be fair, the sample (22 games) is small, so this could just be coincidence. Given the weather, that’d be unlikely, but it’s not like Cheney’s never seen the wind blowing out before. It could also be the pitching staff. After yielding 7 HRs in 2010, French has already surrendered 15 in 2011. His velocity’s been down a bit too. Chaz Roe’s been awful in his first season with the club. Chris Seddon’s nearing his 2010 HR-allowed total already as well. The staff may not be great, but part of the reason they appear so bad is the spike in HR rate.
This highlights how difficult it can be to put minor league stats in their proper context. Omaha radically altered their ballpark this year too. Portland no longer exists, and Tucson’s back in the Pacific Coast League after the previous Tucson franchise moved to Reno a few years back. Multi-year factors help ameliorate year-to-year variance, but it’s tough when the league itself changes so much. Keep this in mind when you see Rainier pitcher RAs, or when you marvel at Mike Carp/Alex Liddi/Dustin Ackley’s home run totals.
Any other theories on what might be going on in Tacoma? Visiting hitters more comfortable now that their clubhouse is no longer a portable beyond the OF wall? Teams taking extra BP to stay warm on some frigid April nights?
Mariners At Twins, Game 48
Fister vs Blackburn, 5:10 pm.
Don’t have time for anything more pithy than “Go M’s” today.