Minor League Wrap (8/30-9/6/10)
Before I get started with this, the Last Wrap of the Season, I’d like to note that the Mariners moved RHP Dan Cortes off the AFL roster and added RHP Tom Wilhelmsen instead. This probably means that they’re planning on calling up Cortes once the Rainiers season ends. I’d add more but Wilhelmsen gets talked about anyway below, so…
To the jump!
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Rainiers’ Playoff Series v. Sacramento Kicks Off Tonight
If a meaningless late-season game between the M’s and A’s just doesn’t get your pulse racing, how about a minor league playoff series between the M’s and A’s farm clubs? No? Really?
The Tacoma Rainiers start their PCL playoff series against Sacramento tonight at a windy Raley Field. As you’ve probably heard, the Rainiers home games in the playoffs will be played at Safeco Field with game 3 scheduled for Friday at 7pm; demolition at Cheney Stadium is already underway. The Rainiers currently have Andy Baldwin on the mound against Clayton Mortensen in game 1 (tune in on 850am or at www.tacomarainiers.com) – Baldwin was tagged for 3 runs in the first inning. Should they win the series, the Rainiers would face either Oklahoma City or Memphis for the PCL crown.
Both teams have avoided calling up key players from AAA this September – Justin Smoak would certainly be in Seattle if Tacoma’s season was over, and Michael Taylor and Mortensen would be in Oakland. But Oakland’s taken it a step further by demoting SP Vin Mazzaro just before the series started (and after the MLB rosters were expanded). This is a strange move, and it led the A’s beat reporter to ask if the move was for disciplinary reasons (hat tip Mike Curto). The A’s insist it was to allow Mazzaro to work on his ‘consistency’, but it’s still stunning to see a pitcher with a half-decent xFIP in the majors demoted AFTER rosters expand.
As the News Tribune’s preview notes here, this match-up is becoming pretty routine: the R’s and River Cats have met four times in the playoffs recently, including last year when Chris Carter almost single-handedly eliminated Tacoma. The Rainiers eliminated Sacramento in 2005 before losing to Nashville in the PCL championship series.
Game 140, Mariners at A’s
French vs Gonzalez, 7:05 pm.
Wheee!
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Moore, C
Kotchman, 1B
Tuiasosopo, LF
Saunders, CF
Josh Wilson, SS
Felix, The Cy Young, And The Referendum On Wins
Over the last few days, it has become hard to avoid articles about Felix Hernandez’s chances to win the AL Cy Young award. Whether its Ken Davidoff in Newsday or John Hickey at FanHouse, mainstream members of the Baseball Writers Association of America are talking up Felix as a legitimate Cy Young candidate, even though his Win-Loss record stands at just 11-10.
While Felix has been great of late, and has certainly earned the compliments, the discussion has essentially ceased to be about him. Instead, comparisons between Felix and CC Sabathia, the other generally accepted top contender for the award, have turned into a discussion of the merits of Wins as a metric worth using.
For years, we’ve been banging the drum of evaluating players based on what they can control, and the sabermetric community long ago abandoned wins as any kind of marker of player ability. For all the reasons that have been obvious with Felix this year, they simply don’t measure the performance of a pitcher all that well. Felix has been brilliant all year, but has been shorted in the win total because of the failures of his teammates. Most of us realize that we shouldn’t hold the ineptitude of this offense against a pitcher, since it has nothing to do with how well he’s actually pitching.
The members of the BBWAA are recognizing this as well. In a separate piece at FanHouse, their writers discuss the issue, and noted veteran scribe Jeff Fletcher said the following:
I’m living proof that voting is evolving. I had always considered myself an enlightened voter, but I voted for Barry Zito over Pedro Martinez in 2002, my first year with a Cy Young ballot. I also voted for Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in 2005 under similar circumstances. In both cases, I voted for the guy who eventually won, but in both cases, I now believe I picked the wrong guy.
Fletcher is right – both times, he picked the wrong guy. Now, he’s willing to look beyond pitcher wins. He might not like FIP (yet), but he’s clearly open to new ways of thinking. He is a prime example of why I keep repeating that the BBWAA is getting smarter. And that’s why I hope that the Cy Young race doesn’t turn into a litmus test for the BBWAA.
In reality, only 28 people will vote on the AL Cy Young award this year. That’s less than 5 percent of the membership of the organization. It’s a very small slice of the pie, and we can be pretty sure that the difference between Felix and CC will end up being a fraction of that number. Both will get votes, and the award will probably be decided by a half dozen or fewer guys who may currently be on the fence. It might end up being similar to last year’s NL race, where the race was decided not by first place votes, but by second and third place ballots.
Felix might win. He might not. Regardless of the outcome, however, we have to acknowledge that mainstream baseball writers are making huge strides in their understanding of the game. Read Hickey’s piece, and then remember that he was the guy who put Alex Rodriguez seventh in his MVP ballot in 1996, when A-Rod had one of the great years in the history of the game but lost out to Juan Gonzalez because voters relied almost exclusively on RBI when deciding who to vote for. Now, he’s writing a piece where FIP and WAR are prominently featured and is openly discussing giving the Cy Young to a guy with one more win than loss.
The winner of the battle over the value of pitcher wins won’t be decided when the Cy Young award is announced. It’s being decided right now, and those who still cling to an outdated statistic are getting overrun. The anti-win crowd is no longer just a group of outsiders banging on the doors – it now includes a heavy dose of beat writers and national scribes who have leaned heavily on wins in prior years. The discussion about the award voting is more than enough proof that the BBWAA is getting it. Sure, maybe they’re just moving from Wins to ERA, but they’re moving. This is progress.
Ken Davidoff doesn’t have an AL Cy Young vote this year. That he’s willing to vote for Felix, 11 wins and all, won’t matter when the award is announced. It’s certainly possible that enough of the 28 guys who do have ballots this year will still value the win high enough to deny Felix the award, even if he deserves it (and, we should point out, he might not – there’s a month left in the season and he’s not the only good candidate). Regardless of the outcome, though, it seems clear to me that wins are being discarded as a metric of much value by mainstream writers all over the country, and for this, they should be applauded.
Game 139, Mariners at A’s
Fister vs Braden, 7:05 pm.
Doug Fister, ERA by month:
April: 1.67
May: 2.95
June: 9.00 (4 IP)
July: 5.29
August: 4.34
September: 6.75 (5 1/3 IP)
He started hot, and now he sucks again. Right?
Doug Fister, xFIP by month:
April: 4.17
May: 4.23
June: 4.72
July: 4.30
August: 3.59
September: 4.79
This is why I don’t like ERA, and why people shouldn’t draw conclusions from what it tells them. Fister has basically been the same pitcher all year long, with just normal blips here and there. If anything, he’s actually pitching better down the stretch than he did earlier in the season.
The lesson, as always – judge by skills, not results. Fister’s skills haven’t changed at all. Be encouraged, even if his ERA isn’t as shiny as it was a few months ago.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Tuiasosopo, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
USSM Chat – 9/7/10
I’m on the plane back to NC and figured I’d take advantage of the wifi and some downtime to do another chat, since the last one was pretty well received. Let’s see how this works from 35,000 feet.
Game 138, Mariners at A’s
Vargas vs Anderson, 1:05 pm.
Sorry we missed yesterday’s game thread. Everything should be back to normal starting tomorrow. Felix is pretty good, eh?
Nick Franklin to Double-A
The minor league season ends today, and moves are still going down as Nick Franklin was called up to join the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx in their playoff run. This comes on the heels of Franklin setting the Clinton franchise home run record with twenty-three, breaking Dick Kenworthy’s old record, which was set in 1961.
A number of thoughts might come up in response to this. One would be to think of the earlier “Franklin to the 40-man” rumor of a few weeks back had legs, and that this is a sign of things to come. Another would be to claim that the Mariners don’t think all that much of the High Desert team and make all sorts of inferences based off that.
Neither of these conclusions would be good ones, because Franklin is also in double-A because Triunfel is on the disabled list at the moment with a sprained finger on his throwing hand. Make no mistake: Franklin is well-regarded within the system, and they’re going to give him as much as he can handle. The double-A move may be a test run on keeping him there for the 2011 season, but any other notions of when he’s going to be on the Mariners 40-man or stick with the team are just speculation at this point. He’s a talented, confident kid, who still has a number of kinks to work out before he gets here, and much to prove in the high minors.
The other part circles back to the original point: Franklin is in double-A because they happen to need someone who can play short. Neither Lawson nor Seager would be an ideal fit, and moving either would open up another hole you’d have to patch up anyway. A few out there have undoubtedly thought of spinning this as “no prospect that the org really likes would spend a lot of time in High Desert”, but the fact remains that Chavez, Seager, and Poythress have all spent the entire season there, and all are highly thought of within the organization.
Placing Franklin in the midst of the Southern League playoffs is a challenge, certainly, but it’s also something that West Tenn needed in order to keep going. Trying to read too much into it is just going to lead to headaches for all of us. Just kick back, and enjoy the ride of the farm system having eight of their nine affiliates in the playoffs.
Game 136, Indians at Mariners
Talbot vs Pauley, 7:10 pm.
Last year’s USSM event at Safeco featured Ian Snell, and after he was horrible, the major league debut of Doug Fister. This year, we get Pauley. Perhaps next year, I’ll demand that they make it a Felix night whether its his turn or not.
Game 135, Indians at Mariners
French vs Carmona, 7:10 pm.
I wonder if you could find two less similar pitchers to match up against each other. Strasburg vs Moyer, maybe.