Game 123, Mariners at Twins
Feierabend vs. Perkins, 11:10.
Silva to DL, Feierabend up
As you can probably tell from the lack of a game thread (sorry!), it looks like everyone is out enjoying the summer weather. After the game, the news is that the Chef has “triceps tendinitis,” so Silva going on the DL is the long-expected roster move that allows Ryan Feierabend to start Sunday.
Remember last year, when Jeff Weaver went on the disabled list because his pitching simply wasn’t cutting it in the majors anymore? Just imagine, what if the Mariners hadn’t done the prudent thing and signed Weaver to a one-year flyer, but instead had given him a multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract based on his reputation and veteran experience? Never mind, no imagination needed now.
Here’s the bet
In considering whether the M’s should have dumped Washburn for nothing, the issue of whether the team could better use the money comes up again and again.
This off-season, at least one free agent pitcher who has superior numbers to Washburn will sign a one-year deal for under Washburn’s 2010 salary of $10m. And here, I mean numbers indicative of a pitcher’s ability:
* Strikeout rate
* Walk rate
* Line drive rate (and HR rate)
* Ground ball/fly ball split
I predict this year we’ll see at least one pitcher who is clearly superior enough to Washburn to make arguing moot, but here’s our specific criteria: at least 180 IP in 2008, K rate equal or better than Washburn’s, walk rate equal or better than Washburn, LD/HR rate equal or better than Washburn’s. They will sign a deal for one year for less than $10m. Bonus points for 2y under $10m.
I’ll make an additional secondary prediction: there will be at least one free agent hitter who signs a one-year deal for under $10m who would provide a +20 run overall upgrade at a Mariner position from this year, with offense measured by any reasonable advanced metric and defense by UZR, PMR, +/-, or any like decent defensive stat.
Rotating stats
K/9
—
BEST ~9
Felix 8.34
Bedard 8
RRS 6.97
LEAGUE AVERAGE ~6
Batista 5.72
Dickey 5.19
Washburn 5.17
Silva 3.89
WORST ~3.5
BB/9
—
BEST ~1
Silva 1.65
Washburn 2.72
Felix 3.46
LEAGUE AVERAGE ~4
RRS 4.01
Dickey 4.04
Bedard 4.11
Batista 6.09
WORST ~8 (actually, more like 7, 7.5 — at eight you have to be a short reliever who throws 100)
HR/9
—
BEST ~.4
Felix 0.6
RRS 0.74
LEAGUE AVERAGE ~1
Bedard 1
Washburn 1.06
Silva 1.12
Dickey 1.15
Batista 1.5
WORST ~1.6
LD%
—
BEST ~14%
Bedard 16.7
Dickey 18.3
Felix 18.5
Batista 21.5
Silva 22.2
Washburn 22.8
RRS 23
WORST ~25%
GB%
—
RRS 30.6
LOW ~33%
Washburn 36.2
Bedard 40.3
Batista 43
Silva 44.2
Dickey 46.8
Felix 51.5
HIGH ~65.6% (for Webb… mortals aspire to 60%)
Game 121, Mariners at Twins
Silva’s joyous return to Minnesota. Faces Liriano.
Seriously, the Twins offered to give the M’s $10m and the M’s wouldn’t take it. And now they get to face Silva. Their cup runneth over.
Washburn for GM
Because half-bad is better than no good.
From Larry Stone, writing on the Seattle Times blog:
On the rumors that the Twins were offering Boof Bonser, Washburn said: “If that was the case, how much more do you think you’re going to get? A young guy with a great arm who’s cheap.â€
Washburn and the Winner’s Curse
We’ve mentioned this around here before, but the Winner’s Curse is one of the most important concepts to grasp around baseball valuation. In short: the person who wins an auction is most likely wrong, because they have the highest opinion of the value of the object. Take an oil field, probably the most common example: if ten companies survey it and make a guess at the value, how much oil they can extract from it, of what kind, and how much it would cost, the one that offers the most came up with a set of assumptions that deviated the most from everyone else’s expert consensus, and while they’ll win the auction, they’re probably screwed in how well they’ll do.
Or take Tejada — the M’s thought he was worth x, the Orioles thought he was worth x+y. The Orioles were much less likely to get a good return on their investment.
So here’s the problem with Washburn. One of the arguments about keeping Washburn is that his $10m next year is a bargain in this market, he’s a left-handed innings eater, and so on.
Here’s the problem with that… no one else believes that Washburn’s next year is worth giving up a decent prospect. If they did, someone would have made a deal before the trade deadline. If $10m was a bargain, every team in baseball with a remotely malleable rotation would have lined up to bid.
So we know at least that the remainder of Washburn’s contract isn’t valued highly enough by the rest of the league that many teams will offer a nice package for it.
Moreover, we also know that teams in a pennant race who could use Washburn, where Washburn’s remaining potential contribution could have an enormous return in getting into the playoffs instead of missing them, still didn’t line up to offer prospects for Washburn before the deadline.
So in the mind of 29 other teams:
Washburn 2009+2010 = not worth a decent prospect
Washburn 2009+2010+increased chance of playoff contention = not worth a decent prospect
If the Twins were indeed willing to give up Bonser, that would make them the team outside the M’s with the highest opinion of Washburn’s potential value.
At this point, a rational organization, or one with some kind of internal variety of opinion, would stop for a second and think “I wonder if we’re over-valuing his services. After all, 29 other teams, almost all of which are more successful than us, are coming in far lower than we thought, and that includes teams that we know are really smart and have more to gain from Washburn’s services than we do.”
They might even consider whether this disparity ties into the horrible contracts they’ve been handing out to pitchers for years and years. They might rethink their assumptions, look ahead to next year, and realize that the default option of letting Washburn go for nothing helps the team in the long term.
Not the Mariners. The M’s can manage to lose bidding wars to themselves. And it’s us, the fans, who are going to pay for this continued incompetence until there are massive organizational changes, including those who represent the team’s owners.
Because the Washburn issue isn’t bad enough
Chris Tillman tops Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet this week. You might remember Tillman from such trades as Jones-Sherrill-Mickolio-Tillman to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.
Tillman’s fanned nearly ten hitters per nine innings at AA this year while allowing a mere nine homers in 118.2 innings, Sherrill’s saved 31 games, Jones has hit better than (I personally) expected, and Mickolio’s pitched well in relief (again).
Ugh.
From Minnesota, the other side
What’s an indication?
From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:
I received indications that the Twins offered Boof Bonser. Makes sense, as he is out of minor-league options, and the Twins would need to clear a spot for Washburn. As I wrote recently, Bonser is only 26, and it makes sense for a team that is way out of the race to let Bonser make 10 starts down the stretch.
Bonser isn’t even eligible for arbitration, so the Mariners could have found a pitcher for their 2009 rotation who will make less than $500,000 next year.
Oh no. I have indications the Mariners insisted on getting one of the Twins’ current starting pitchers. Yeah, like Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. That, friends, is sheer lunacy.
I’m interested to see what the Mariners leak in response to this. Blackburn or Slowey for Washburn and Washburn’s contract would, indeed, be total, howl-at-the-moon insanity.
Funny random thought
After writing the waivers explained post, in which we discuss waivers, no-trade clauses, and whether Washburn’s no trade clause would prevent the M’s from even requesting irrevocable waivers (unless they bought out the clause ahead of time), I thought “I wish Kim Ng was around, she worked in the MLB transactions office for a while and is notorious for knowing this kind of thing inside and out.” There’s always hope.