Game 60, Mariners at Indians
Baek v Byrd. 4:05, FSN.
This makeup schedule is just crazy. There’s no good way they were going to re-schedule those games, but I can’t imagine there wasn’t a less-bad way. And to think that this was a compromise! Ugh.
Anyway, the Indians are 37-24 and the M’s are 33-26. The M’s are on a ridiculous tear, and the Indians are playing well, but not as well. Go team.
The ESPN player rankings
If you look at ESPN.com’s front page right now, there’s a story about a player ranking formula that they’ve created.
It’s horrible, it’s useless, and you shouldn’t care. It’s based on bad premises, produces bad results, and is a collossal waste of time. ESPN is horrible at this kind of stuff – a few years ago, they shoved Productive Outs down our throats and tried to convince everyone that they’d created some fantastic new statistic.
ESPN does some things well, but besides a select few guys they’ve hired (John Hollinger, for one), they are a disaster when it comes to any kind of serious analysis. Just ignore the player rater, because it isn’t worth your time, unless you want to learn why Sean White is better than Jarrod Washburn.
Best Ichiro Quote Yet
The Mariners were clearly not thrilled with the detour before opening a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.
“To tell the truth, I’m not excited to go to Cleveland, but we have to,” Ichiro said through an interpreter. “If I ever saw myself saying I’m excited going to Cleveland, I’d punch myself in the face, because I’m lying.”
Felix, Pitch Selection, Part 843
The M’s just completed a sweep of a pretty good baseball team. Hooray. They’re now only 4 1/2 games out, and with some lousy NL Central teams coming up after today’s distraction in Cleveland, they have a chance to keep the winning going.
But, you know me, I’m generally a lot more interested in the process than the result. I like to find out why things happen, rather than just settling for accepting that they did. And, one of my obvious obsessions over the past 18 months has been the pitch selection of Felix Hernandez. It all started with the Charting Felix series last year, and in the last few days, I’ve spent some time talking with Dan Fox, who is doing great work plotting velocity and break data from MLB.com’s enhanced gameday, which basically turns game charting into an automated process and makes my life a lot easier.
So, to help Dan be able to translate the velocity/data numbers from gameday into understanding pitch types, I watched yesterday’s game with Gameday open simultaneously, so I could quickly associate the pitch that he threw with how gameday described it. He’s going to use the pitch descriptions and his data to do some cool stuff pretty soon. But, since I have the information from yesterday’s game now, and I find this stuff remarkably interesting, here’s a look at Felix’s pitch selection against the Padres.
Since he threw 93 pitches, I’ve broken them out into 15 pitch segments, which allows us to view his start in 1/6th chunks and watch the transformation as the game goes on. To the charting – by request, the italicized pitches in the sequence charts are the first pitch of an at-bat.
Pitch 1-15
Sequence: FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, CH, FB, SL, CB, FB, FB, SL, FB
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 80%
CB: 0%
SL: 13%
CH: 7%
Results: Walk (fastball), Groundout (curveball), Strikeout (slider).
It’s the same gameplan he takes to the hill every single time. He begins the game by just throwing fastball after fastball, to the great surprise of no one. Because it’s his worst pitch and the one he has the least command over, he falls behind hitters, gets in more fastball counts, and generally struggles. We’ve pointed this out for over a year now, and it’s blindingly obvious – Felix’s struggles in the first inning are completely related to his pitch selection. Yes, if he had pinpoint command of his fastball, it wouldn’t be a problem, but he doesn’t. So when he goes all fastballs, all the time, he struggles.
Pitch 16-30
Sequence: FB, FB, SL, FB, FB, SL, FB, FB, SL, FB, CH, FB, CH, SL, CB
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 53%
CB: 7%
SL: 27%
CH: 13%
Results: Groundout (fastball), Single (fastball), Strikeout (slider), Single (fastball)
After feeling that the fastball was significantly established, Felix converts to using his entire arsenal. Of course, it’s still a pretty predictable two-fastballs-then-a-slider pattern to start off, but when he works in the change-up and curve at the end, he’s good. Both hits came off badly located fastballs up in the zone early in the count, but when he threw anything that moved, the Padres were helpless.
Pitch 31-45
Sequence: SL, CH, FB, FB, CB, CB, FB, FB, FB, CH, FB, FB, FB, SL, SL
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 53%
CB: 13%
SL: 20%
CH: 13%
Results: Strikeout (change), Groundout (fastball), Groundout (fastball), Single (fastball), Double Play (change), groundout (fastball)
This was Felix at his best. He threw a couple of nasty change-ups, including a first-pitch change to Adrian Gonzalez that produced an inning ending double play directly after throwing another badly located high fastball that got hit for a single. Even when he threw the fastballs, he was keeping hitters off balance, getting Marcus Giles to groundout on a sinker after starting him with back to back curveballs.
Pitch 46-60
Sequence: SL, CH, SL, FB, FB, FB, FB, CH, FB, FB, SL, CB, FB, CH, CH?
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 47%
CB: 7%
SL: 20%
CH: 27%
Results: Home Run (fastball), Groundout (slider), Single (fastball), Home Run (change-up? I’m not sure, honestly)
The crappy fourth inning. Generally, you’d expect some rant from me here about bad pitch selection causing the home runs, but really, it wasn’t. The 3-2 fastball to Cameron was another badly located high fastball, but it came after five consecutive offspeed pitches to start the at-bat. It was the only fastball Cameron saw the whole at-bat, as they clearly had a gameplan off attacking him with stuff that moved. On a 3-2 count, throwing a guy a fastball after seeing a lot of breaking stuff isn’t a bad idea. It was just put in a bad spot, and Cameron jumped on it. It happens.
The Sledge homer, though, is the one that just makes you shake your head. After giving up a single on a fastball, Felix threw a first pitch change-up to Sledge, and again, there’s nothing to complain about there. He was still mixing his pitches and staying away from first-pitch fastballs to every hitter. But, the second pich… I honestly don’t know what it was. 88 MPH, no movement whatsoever, belt high, and just a Weaveresque meatball. I’m guessing it was a change-up that he just overthrew, or maybe he took an awful lot off a fastball, but either way, the result was horrible. It was a mistake pitch, a marshmellow soft meatball with no movement. It’s not something you ever see Felix throw, so we certainly can’t call it predictable. Something just went wrong with that pitch and Sledge made him pay for it.
Pitch 61-75
Sequence: FB, FB, FB, SL, CB, FB, FB, SL, SL, CB, CB, CH, CB, FB, CH
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 40%
CB: 27%
SL: 20%
CH: 13%
Results: Strikeout (slider), Popout (curve), Strikeout (slider), Groundout (fastball)
Here, again, is Good Felix. If there’s a pattern to his pitches, I can’t see it, and he kept throwing offspeed pitches on the first pitch of an-bat with great success. By keeping the hitters off balance so they couldn’t look for a fastball early in the at-bat, he got ahead and put them away with the nasty breaking balls.
Pitch 76-93
Sequence: SL, FB, CB, CB, SL, CB, CH, SL, FB, CB, FB, SL, FB, SL, FB, FB, CB, CB
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 33%
CB: 33%
SL: 28%
CH: 6%
Results: Strikeout (curve), Flyout (slider), Single (fastball), Flyout (curve)
The last segment is 18 pitches, but again, we see the continuing de-evolution of Felix from his establish-the-fastball start to him practically overthrowing his breaking balls as he gets near the end of the game. But, as we continue to see, it works – the soft stuff gets outs, and the hard stuff gets hit.
Total
Percentage Breakdown
FB: 49%
CB: 16%
SL: 22%
CH: 13%
Results By Type:
Fastball: 6 for 12, walk, home run
Curveball: 0 for 4
Slider: 0 for 6, 4 strikeouts
Change: 1 for 3, strikeout, double play, home run
The evolution of Felix during a game is fascinating to watch, at least, when it’s not aggravatingly frustrating. For whatever reason (be it organizational philosophy or just stubbornness of youth), he will begin every single game exactly the same way, despite the fact that it’s never done anything other than dig him a hole and run up his pitch count, before he settles into a pattern of varying his pitches and getting outs with breaking balls.
We all know that Felix’s fastball is his worst pitch. Yesterday, he threw it less than half the time, and with the exception of two swings, he mostly had success.
All I’m asking is that one of these days, the Mariners send him to the hill with a gameplan other than nothing-but-fastballs early. It’s not good for Felix, it’s not good for the team, and it’s frustrating as hell to watch.
Friday Roundup
So, obviously, the draft was the big news from yesterday. There’s three posts on it below this, so scroll down if you’re looking for information on Philippe Aumont. After the first round, the M’s selected five more players – college 3B Matt Mangini, HS outfielders Denny Almonte, Daniel Carroll, and Joe Dunigan, and college RHP Nolan Gallagher. Don’t read anything into the fact that they loaded up on toolsy young outfielders and any hidden meanings about their intentions regarding Ichiro – the decisions are completely disconnected from one another, and they were simply taking the players they thought were the best available at the time of the pick.
Speaking of the M’s center fielder, it’s Ichiro Day at the P-I, as they got nearly the entire baseball department to spend the offday writing an opinion piece on what the M’s should do with him. David Andriessen writes the “What is he worth” article, Ted Miller pens the “just sign him” piece, Seth Kolloen gives the emotional heartstrings a tug, Bill Virgin discusses Ichiro’s lack of endorsement deals, and Greg Johns talks to Adam Jones about biding his time in Tacoma.
We wrote about Ichiro a few weeks ago, and nothing has changed since. For various reasons, Ichiro is an underappreciated player in many circles of the fanbase, and he’s clearly the best player on the team, one of the true superstars in baseball, and a remarkably valuable player. Losing Ichiro would be a crippling blow to an organization that needs to be adding talent, not subtracting it. The “Trade Ichiro For Pitching” crowd wants the M’s to cut off their nose to spite their face, and I couldn’t be more against that line of thinking. So, yea – the M’s are currently contenders, Ichiro is their best player, he shouldn’t be traded, and they should try their darndest to resign him this winter.
Weaver Makes Rehab Start?
So, I know Jeff Weaver is starting for the M’s on Saturday, but when looking at the minor league box scores tonight and noticing that the Rainiers currently trail the Colorado Springs Sky Sox 21-11 in the top of the 8th inning, my first thought was “hey, they got Weaver to go on a rehab start after all”.
But no, it was just Jake Woods, Juan Sandoval, and Jamie Cerda taking the pounding.
Also, on a night where the two teams have combined for 36 hits, Jeff Clement is 0 for 3. Awesome.
Major League ready outfielder Adam Jones is 4-4 with 2 homers, though.
Philippe Aumont
With the 11th pick in the first round pick, the M’s selected Philipee Aumont, an 18-year-old 6’7 RHP from Quebec. Here’s a video of Aumont from the MLB Scouting Bureau, and there’s a brief scouting report on him from the MLB.com draft tracker page.
He throws a 90-94 MPH fastball that has popped 96 at times, but unlike most prep pitchers, he already has a feel for the two-seam fastball and throws it with heavy sink. Pitching from a downward plane and pounding the bottom half of the strike zone, he’s got all the makings of being an extreme groundball pitcher, and you know how I love groundball pitchers. He also throws a slider and has toyed with a change-up, but both pitches are very raw and he doesn’t command either one particularly well. However, the slider has flashed good movement at times and has the potential to become an out-pitch with more work.
Aumont is extremely inexperienced, as he didn’t have a high school team to pitch for in Quebec. He traveled to showcases in the U.S. to pitch in front of scouts, and the M’s made sure to put a pair of eyes on him everytime they could. They saw Aumont more than any other team, logging tens of thousands of miles to watch him pitch at different events. In the end, they all fell in love. He was rated as the top prep pitching prospect on their board, even ahead of consensus #1 arm Rick Porcello. The team believes he has more upside than any pitcher in the draft due to his projectable frame and feel for the sinker at such a young age.
The popular comparison in recent weeks has been Kevin Brown, though that’s obviously a best case scenario, and putting those kind of expectations on any 18-year-old kid is unfair. However, as a perfect world comparison, it has some merit. That’s the kind of pitcher the M’s would love to see Aumont develop into. By request, here’s three potential career paths for Aumont (ignoring the injury and flameout possibility, which is there for every pitcher), based on his skillset and the careers of similar types of pitchers in the past:
Low End Upside: Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis
Middle Upside: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny
High Upside: Kevin Brown, Chris Carpenter
If you can’t tell, I love this pick. This is the guy I wanted all along, so if my opinion is worth anything (and that’s obviously up to you), then there’s reason for optimism. It was a stretch that he’d fall to #11, but when he did, the M’s had to abandon their pick-for-now philosophy and take the best arm on the board, and that was clearly Philippe Aumont. Welcome to Seattle, kid. We’re glad to have you.
Live Draft Coverage
Okay, here’s a new thread for real time reactions to the draft picks. We have a few requests.
Please do not hit refresh constantly in order to find out who got picked. The server can’t handle it. MLB.com and Baseball America both have draft trackers that will update as the picks get made. Hit refresh on those bandwidth monsters.
Also, please realize that the server is taxed the most when everyone rushes to comment all at once. When 300 people all try to add their light to the growing firmament of discussion while 20,000 others are hitting refresh, we go offline. So, if you’re going to add a comment, have it be meaningful. Try to refrain from posting things like “WHAT?” or “YAY!”. They don’t really add to the discussion, and there’s a good chance you’ll help nuke the blog.
Edit: Comments have been turned off. Seriously, stop hitting refresh. I’ll provide commentary on the M’s pick in the post, turn comments back on afterwards.
So far, this has gone about as well as the M’s could have hoped – with Aumont and Dominguez both available, the M’s college arm fetish is going to be tested.
Hallelujah – Welcome to Seattle, Philippe Aumont. I’ve said for a week now that he was the guy I wanted. For the first time in years, the Mariners take the guy I like. Yipee!
Okay, comments are back on. Aumont now has his own post above.
M’s Draft Board
Okay, today’s the day. Based on conversations with people inside and out of the organization, this is what I believe the M’s draft board looks like heading into the first round. The order isn’t as important as the names themselves, as there’s several spots (#7 and #8) where I basically just had to pick one, because both Aumont and Schmidt have their supporters within the organization. However, I’d be stunned if the pick wasn’t one of these 11 eleven guys.
1. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
3. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS
5. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
6. Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
7. Philipee Aumont, RHP, Quebec – No High School
8. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS
10. Beau Mills, 1B/DH, Lewis-Clark State
11. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS Arkansas
Notably absent are Scott Boras’ three “out of the box” prospects. The Mariners won’t consider drafting Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, or Matt Harvey, and they’re rooting like crazy for all three to go in the top ten. The problem, however, is that signability questions about the trio are threatening to push all three out of the top half of the first round, as no team is as of yet giving indications that they are willing to pay Boras’ over-slot premium for these guys.
That creates some problems for the M’s, because it means that the teams picking ahead of them are going to be picking guys off who, on talent, should be available at #11. Philppe Aumont, for instance, is a guy the M’s would have a really hard time passing over, even with their strong desire to go with a college arm who can get to the majors quickly. However, with Aumont being the easiest sign in the first round, he could very well end up going in the top 5, and it will be an upset if he slides to #11.
The same goes with Daniel Moskos, who we talked about on Tuesday. It sounds like San Francisco won’t let Moskos get past them at #10.
If the draft breaks out as expected, the out of the box guys will slide past the Mariners, and the guys at the top of their board will be picked off one by one before they are on the clock.
So, at this point, the likely selection is Arkansas LHP Nick Schmidt. If you like Jarrod Washburn, you’ll like Schmidt. 88-92 with a four seam fastball, above average change-up, mediocre curveball, succeeds with command, lacks an outpitch, very little upside, and projects as a #5 starter in the majors. A few days ago, I called him a left-handed Joe Blanton. That was probably too generous, in retrospect, as Blanton’s stuff is a tick better across the board than Schmidt’s.
In his favor, Schmidt has been durable, knows how to pitch, and isn’t that far away from the majors. The M’s would likely bring him to spring training next year and let him compete for a rotation spot, and he’d replace Horacio Ramirez as the back-end starter whose reasons for optimism are his team’s home park and defense.
Schmidt’s not a lock to be the pick – the M’s are hopeful that Ross Detwiler or Josh Vitters will slide because of their agents requests for above slot money, but both are considered far more signable than the Boras trio, and it’s very unlikely that either gets out of the top ten. The M’s also really like Matt Dominguez, and if he’s around at #11, it will make the pick more interesting, at least, as he some big fans in the organization. And, there’s still Casey Weathers, the closer from Vanderbilt who has the velocity and slider to be effective in the majors this year.
However, if you put a gun to my head, I’m saying that Nick Schmidt is the guy the M’s go with. Aumont, Moskos, and Dominguez could be selected if they end up at #11, or they could go with the high power reliever over the back end starter if Weathers is there. But you can forget about pretty much anyone else. The M’s aren’t going to take Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey, and most of the other names bandied about aren’t as high on the M’s board as the guys we’ve covered.
We’ll find out for sure in a few hours. Personally, I’m rooting for Philippe Aumont, a 6’7 groundball machine with all kinds of projection, but I don’t think the M’s will have the chance to call his name out. In the end, it’s probably going to be a low risk, low reward college pitcher.
Yipee.
Morning Edit: As things begin to shake out, we’re getting a better idea of what’s going to happen. With KC settling on Josh Vitters, the likelyhood of the M’s getting a chance at HS 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez have gotten significantly better. They like Dominguez a lot as an athletic third baseman with a good bat and great glove, and if Moskos isn’t there, the M’s may go offense.
Afternoon Edit: Jim Callis is now reporting that the Royals have flip-flopped, and are going to take Mike Moustakas over Josh Vitters at #2. Vitters is basically a lock to go to the Cubs at #3, however, which then leaves Dominguez as the option for anyone looking for a HS 3rd baseman in the 4-10 range. Weathers just became a lot more likely pick. Nuts.
Game 56, Orioles at Mariners
Cabrera vs Washburn, 1:35 pm.
Daniel Cabrera struggles to throw strikes, but his stuff is nasty when he keeps it in the zone. The Mariners hitters will go out of the zone to swing at anything they can reach. Not a particularly good matchup for the M’s. Thank God for the famed Orioles bullpen.
Another day with no Beltre, and Kenji gets the day-off as well. M’s go for the sweep, which would put them 6 games over .500 for the first time since 1843.