The M’s can stop playing now
2-0 wooooooo! Clearly the positive tone of yesterday’s game post is to be credited.
Over on the Cheater’s Guide Blog, I look at the Angels’ K-Rod cheating in the first game of the year.
I built this to put in what I knew would be nearly identical stories from the two papers, but the Times is being slow to post tomorrow’s stories, so all you get are the PI links right now. Hopefully they post before I fall asleep here.
The M’s matched last season’s win total against the A’s: PI. The Times story curiously pushes it to the seventh paragraph. Of course, Mr. Baker wasn’t here last year and has no idea how traumatic it was.
Morrow’s first start gets a story in the PI
Batista says nice things about Felix. Betancourt might miss a game to testify that big trial thing.
Jim Rice beware
Two things that I already believed were reinforced heavily during yesterdays game.
1. Felix Hernandez is awesome.
2. Jose Vidro is ridiculously slow.
I’m not sure what else to say about Felix, so let’s talk about Vidro for a second. During his first at bat, I made the following observation in the game thread after Vidro’s ground ball up the middle turned into a 4-3 putout.
I like how Ellis planted in the hole and got ready to rush an off balance throw, then noticed Vidro was 20 steps from the bag, slowed down, and tossed it across to still get him by 8 feet.
If you go back and watch the replay, it’s really remarkable just how long it took Vidro to get up the line on this play. Ellis took several steps into the hole, planted off his back foot, loaded up to make a hope-it-gets-there heave, and then stopped, because Vidro wasn’t anywhere close to the bag. So, instead, he takes a step forward and lobs the ball to first and it’s still not a close play. I’m pretty sure the scouts in the stands were using sand timers to clock Vidro’s home-to-first time.
During spring training, when all this Vidro-as-#3-hitter stuff started to sprout, I began to think that there was one issue in this whole line-up construction thing that was getting overlooked – Jose Vidro is probably the last person on the team you want hitting with a runner on first base. His combination of heavy groundball tendencies and glacier-like speed is a recipe for a double play.
In 2006, Vidro had a 46.4% Ground Ball percentage. From 2002-2006, his total was 48.6%. Basically, half of his balls in play are worm burners, making him a heavy groundball hitter. A huge majority of the guys who hit that many groundballs are no-power speedsters, and the GB% leaderboard matches up pretty well with the SB leaderboards, as both are populated with the likes of Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford, Dave Roberts, and Luis Castillo. Of course, all those guys could run a lap around the outfield before Vidro could make his way down the first base line, and most of them hit at the top of the batting order.
Among heavy groundball hitters, there are a couple who aren’t particularly fast and hit 3rd or 4th ine their respective line-ups. Miguel Tejada had a 51% ground ball rate last year, continuing his career trend of hitting the ball on the ground or over the wall. Joe Mauer had a 49.4% ground ball rate, Lyle Overbay had a 45.8% ground ball rate, and Victor Martinez had a 44% ground ball rate. These guys are all middle of the order hitters, being counted on to drive in runs and sustain rallies, while also being heavy groundball hitters and not running particularly well.
You know who ranked #1 in the the majors in grounding into double plays last year? Miguel Tejada. #2? Victor Martinez. Joe Mauer tied for the #6 spot, while Overbay checked in all the way down at a tie for 14th place. These guys are all varying degrees of good hitter, but their combination of hitting 3rd, having strong groundball tendencies, and being slow runners lead to a lot of double plays.
If Vidro hits 3rd all season against both RHP and LHP, and stays healthy, he should get approximately 150 opportunities to ground into a double play. Ibanez had 144 such opportunities last year, while guys like Mauer and Tejada were up in the 170 range. Ballparking 150 GIDP opportunities should put us within 10 chances or so.
So, let’s see if we can project how many double plays he’ll ground into this year, using his ball in play patterns.
First, let’s remove the plate appearances that have no chance of being a GIDP – walks, strikeouts, and home runs. I’m projecting about a 9% walk rate and a 10% strikeout rate, so we can remove 24 plate appearances right off the top. Given his likely power output, I’ll give him four home runs in double play chances, bringing our total chances down to 122.
That’s 122 balls in play with the double play in order for a guy who is going to put the ball on the ground half the time. Using a 47% groundball rate, that’s 57 ground balls in double play situations. 57!
The major league record for double plays grounded into is 36, set by Jim Rice in 1984. Teams would have to convert 63% of Vidro’s groundballs in double play situations to match that record. That sounds high, at least until you watch Vidro shimmy up the line.
I’m not saying he’s going to break the all-time GIDP record, but if you’re going to bet on a guy to lead the league, he’s the Barbaro of this race. It will be one of those things that doesn’t show up in his OBP or SLG, but will affect the team’s run production. When a guy is this slow and has strong groundball tendencies, he needs to hit the ball over the wall 30 times a year to have any business hitting in the middle of the order. Vidro, obviously, won’t come anywhere near that.
You might want to prepare yourself now, because Jose Vidro is likely to frustrate the hell out of you this year.
Drowning in Opening Day coverage
ObBookPlug: The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball got a really positive review in the LA Times (registration).
Lots, lots, lots of Opening Day coverage. KUOW has yesterday’s epic Art Thiel-Larry Stone-Me Weekday online. Listen to me sick, dehydrated, on an hour’s sleep, try to keep up with my favorite Seattle print columnists.
PI
Art Thiel
Miller
Hickey’s game recap
More on the local boys!
A whole article on the Crosby error
Notebook: Johjima, Hernandez get along
Times
Baker and again
Larry Stone on Sexson
Bishop on the Crosby error
Kelley wrote something, too
If you missed it, the Kitsap Sun ran a huge, front-page covering article on the Bloomquist/Ellison reunion: “Now, Two Wolves in Seattle Clothing” featuring many pictures and running, by my guess, about 80,000 words.
All Hail The King
8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K. 12 groundouts, 0 flyouts.
Felix’s performance was good for a game score of 86. Last year, there were exactly seven performances by AL starters that achieved a higher game score the entire season. On opening day, Felix just put up a start that will likely go down as one of the ten best games thrown in the American League this season.
Johan Who?
The Coolest Thing You Didn’t Know About
If I told you there was a major league scoreboard that updated Win Probability in real time, would you get excited? If so, you’re as nerdy as I am, which makes me feel a little bit better.
Anyways, it’s true. Fangraphs has a live, updating scoreboard that calculates WPA on the fly. ESPN or MLB will tell you that Jose Contreras got bombed – only fangraphs will tell you that his wretched performance was worth -.482 WPA. Since each time starts with approximately a 50% chance to win the game, and Contreras reduces the White Sox chances by 48%, you can safely say that Contreras destroyed any chance the White Sox had of winning today. Sometimes, one guy really can win or lose a game.
On the other side of the ledger you can quantify just how much guys like Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Ben Sheets, and Adam Dunn have carried their teams.
I heart fangraphs. Of course, this automated version of WPA isn’t as accurate as one done manually, such as the ones Jeff Sullivan does at Lookout Landing every night. His commentary is also hilarious, so don’t let the awesomeness of live WPA distract you from the fact that you still need to read LL every morning.
MLB.tv 5 day free trial
If you are like me and live just a wee bit outside of the Mariners broadcast area, but you still want to watch opening day, MLB.tv has made it possible.
They are offering a 5 day free trial of MLB.tv during the month of April. Yes, you’re required to cancel before the five days expire or you’ll be charged for whichever service you sign up for, but canceling simply requires sending an email from your account to a specified address.
Basically, it boils down to free baseball for five days. Even if you don’t like the idea of watching the games on your computer, it’s better than nothing.
Opening Day Festivities, USSM Prediction contest
10:00 AM: I’m on KUOW’s Weekday, talking about the Mariners, the Cheater’s Guide to Baseball, and all things baseball.
Also at 10: Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ New York Yankees, ESPN
11am: Chicago Cubs featuring Lou Piniella @ the Cincinnati Reds, ESPN2
1-3ish: USSM pre-game chilling at the Pioneer Square Saloon. I sign books, and trade books for beer. Hang out!
1: Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, ESPN
3:35ish: M’s versus Oakland, in an unusually important series for the M’s — if Oakland flattens them to start the season after last year’s ridiculous drubbing, that’s going to be tough to come back from.
4: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins, ESPN2
6:21pm: Ohio State vs Florida in the NCAA Tournament final. If the M’s game is a blowout, I expect to see fans streaming from of Safeco to Pyramid/Sluggers/etc to catch that game.
7: Texas Rangers @ Anaheim LA Angels of Anaheim.
Contest: email us with your guess for the highest and lowest announced attendance numbers for the 2007 season. I will painstakingly collate them, and prizes will be awarded at season’s end.
Happy Opening Felix Day
Well, it’s finally here. This time it counts, or do we have to wait until July to say that?
In about eight and a half hours, Felix Hernandez will throw a first pitch fastball to open the 2007 season, and what is likely the most pivotal season in the franchises history will begin. We’ve written our fair share of analysis and opinions about how the offseason went and what we expect this year to look like, but as of today, only the results on the field matter.
Today, we have hope. King Felix takes the hill for the last time before he turns 21 and makes the first of what is hopefully a decade or two of opening day starts at Safeco Field. Win today and the team will take possession of first place.
Huzzah for opening day. Go M’s.
Jamie Burke awesomeness
First, I’m surprised that Jamie Burke never changed his name to Jamie Molina to increase his defensive reputation and chances of getting a major league job.
But that’s not what I’m writing about. If you look at Burke’s 1999 line, you’ll see something interesting:
1999: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K.
What happened?
In 1999, the Edmonton Trappers were the Angels AAA affiliate, facing the Rainiers. When the Trappers threw Burke to the mound in the 11th (12th?) inning of a tied game, they thought it was over. But Burke pounded the plate, the Rainiers couldn’t get anything done and three innings later, he got the win.
The only press hit I’ve found was the LA Times, which said “Besides Fyhrie, the best pitcher lately has been utility infielder Jamie Burke, 27, who threw three scoreless innings in a mop-up role, striking out three and registering 89 mph on the radar gun.” (May 18, 1999, p 8)
I’ve been trying to find a good game story or box score to post here, but the Tacoma News Tribune’s archives are pay-only, and I can’t find anything from the Edmonton side. I was hoping I’d be able to say that Ryan Franklin took the loss, so I could say “Jamie Burke out-dueled Ryan Franklin” but it was just as likely Sean Spencer or Rafael Carmona.
Anyway, I’m really hoping someone gets a chance to ask him about this, so we can find out if Raul Ibanez went up against him that late night.
Larry Stone utterly rocks, the M’s collapsed
So here’s Larry Stone today:
– a detailed and well-researched article on precedents to Morrow’s situation
– a considered, even article on Jose Guillen’s ability and reputation
– a quick, breezy view of the season to be.
There were a lot of articles today in the Times and the Tacoma News Tribune on the team’s dire state, Bavasi and Hargrove’s jobs, but I wanted to focus on that for a second — Larry Stone just rocks, and I’m happy he’s in town. He’s USSM’s Officially Endorsed writer for a reason.
On that, then:
Bishop on how the M’s collapsed.
Geoff Baker previews the season, touching on that Athletics Nation quote I used in “Imagine Sisyphus a Mariner”
So, to the TNT:
Enough absurdity, M’s, just give us a little mediocrity
‘Tremendous camp,’ Bavasi says