Gil Meche’s Thanksgiving List; Plus, Idle Speculation!
Even it were not a national holiday, it would have to be a pretty exciting time to be Gil Meche. In a time when Adam Eaton can postulate receiving a $36 million deal — albeit fictionally, in Derek’s exceptional video game sendup — visions of ducats have to be dancing in his head.
Despite it being 4 a.m. in Louisiana right now, we have somehow managed to obtain the text of Gil Meche’s remarks to his family when asked to start the traditional “What Are You Thankful For?” recitation. As you might imagine, he’s shaken out Mr. Bad Feeling with great success.
Evidently, the Meche family celebrates early and often. As well they should. Without further ado, the text of Gil’s remarks: Read more
Offseason Adventure
OFFSEASON ADVENTURE
You are in an open offseason in your office in the headquarters of a successful west coast baseball team. It is dark and raining here. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.
There is a suitcase here.
There is a neatly stacked set of travel documents here.
> examine documents
You have been booked on a ten PM redeye flight from Seattle to Naples, Florida. There is a long layover in Atlanta.
> oh, no.
I don't understand that.
An staffer enters your office.
"Sir? I'm ready to drive you to Seatac. Oh, Lee says that the Cubs signed Aramis Ramirez."
> examine Aramis Ramirez signing
Aramis Ramirez signed for $75m over 5 years.
> what?
You must supply a direct object.
> are you kidding me?
I don't understand that.
> fly to Naples
After a forgettable flight and a layover you wish you could forget, you arrive in Naples, Florida.
You are in Naples, west of a big white hotel.
Billy Beane is here.
> say "Hey, Billy"
Billy sighs and pretends not to notice you.
> examine hotel
It's a nice hotel.
Billy Beane is here.
> poke Billy
Billy glares at you.
> say "Sorry"
Billy sighs and pretends not to notice you.
> enter hotel
You enter the hotel. Behind you, Billy Beane answers his cell phone.
You are in a hotel lobby, with baseball people all round you.
Jim Bowden is here.
Jim Hendry is here.
"I signed all the good minor league free agents," Jim Bowden says.
Jim Bowden laughs at you.
> examine Jim Bowden
You see nothing special about Jim Bowden.
> wish Jim Bowden good luck
Jim Bowden smiles happily.
> punch Hendry
Hendry ducks your blow.
"Ha, ha, you kidder, Bill!"
> punch Hendry
Hendry ducks your blow.
"Ha, ha, you kidder, Bill!"
> go to room
"See you, Bill!"
You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> sleep
It is November 14th. You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> go downstairs
You are in a hotel lobby.
Jim Hendry is here.
"I just signed Mark DeRosa!" Jim Hendry says.
> examine DeRosa signing
Mark Derosa signed for $13,000,000 over 3 years.
> punch Hendry
Hendry ducks your blow.
"Ha, ha, you kidder, Bill!"
> sign minor-leaguers
You can't do that now.
> call Pelekoudas
You call Pelekoudas.
"You going to try to sign Soriano?" Hendry says
> punch Hendry
Your hand is holding an expensive team-provided cellular phone. Are you sure you want to do that?
> no
Pelekoudas answers. "I'm up," Pelekoudas says.
> sign minor leaguers
You sign Cibney Bello
You sign Renee Cortez
You sign Jared Eichelberger
You sign Jesse Foppert
You sign Josh Kite
You sign Rey Ordonez
You sign Tony Torcato
You sign Brant Ust
You sign Michael Wagner
> who is Jared Eichelberger?
I don't know either.
> hang up
Jim Hendry laughs at you.
Your phone rings.
> examine phone
The phone display reads "Howard Lincoln".
> u
You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> sleep
It is November 15th. You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> sleep x4
It is November 20th. You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> d
Are you sure?
> d
That might not be the best idea right now, if you get my meaning.
> clean up
You clean up nicely.
> go downstairs
You are in a hotel lobby.
Jim Hendry is here.
"I just signed Alfonso Soriano!" Jim Hendry says.
> examine Soriano contract
Alfonso Soriano signed for $136,000,000 over 8 years.
> I hate you and wish you would die.
I don't understand that.
Jim Hendry performs his Dance of Joy.
> punch Hendry
You catch Hendry unaware!
Hendry is wounded!
The other GMs look at you with awe.
Hendry runs away!
Some GMs applaud you.
> bow
How gracious.
Wayne Krivsky signs Alex Gonzalez.
> examine Gonzalez signing
Alex Gonzalez signed for $14,000,000 over 3 years.
> examine Gonzalez signing
No, you read that right.
Pat Gillick asks you how Adrian Beltre is doing.
> remind Gillick of Franklin signing
Pat Gillick looks hurt and leaves.
Brian Sabean is here.
Your phone rings.
> trade Richie Sexson to Brian Sabean for Matt Cain
Brian Sabean looks confused.
"Why would I do that?" Brian Sabean asks.
> trade Richie Sexson to Brian Sabean for Marcus Sanders and live arm
Brian Sabean ponders this.
"I do need power," Brian Sabean says.
> don't look anxious
You look cool.
"I don't know though," Brian Sabian says. "We're not sure if we're trying to rebuild or not..."
Brian Sabean looks at you expectantly.
> trade Richie Sexson and Rafael Soriano to Brian Sabean for Marcus Sanders and live arm
Brian Sabean nods.
"Let me think about that," Brian Sabean says.
Brian Sabean takes out his cellular phone.
Jason Schmidt is here.
> sign Jason Schmidt
You don't have Jason Schmidt's contract demands yet.
> get contract demands from Schmidt
Jason Schmidt hands you a brochure.
Jason Schmidt leaves to find Brian Sabean.
Adam Eaton is here.
> get contract demands from Eaton
"In today's market we should start at $36,000,000 for 4 years," Adam Eaton says.
> laugh
Adam Eaton looks offended.
> apologize
You pretend you were laughing at something else.
Adam Eaton looks suspicious.
> make excuse to Eaton
You tell Adam Eaton you will have to talk to management.
Adam Eaton leaves.
JP Riccardi is here.
"We agreed to terms with Frank Catalanotto and will announce it tomorrow," JP Riccardi says.
> bang head against wall
You bang your head against the wall, producing a satisfying thumping sound.
"Sorry about that," JP Riccardi says. "There's always Alou."
> remain calm
You breathe deeply.
JP Riccardi leaves.
> u
You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here.
> order room service
What did you want to order from room service?
> order pizza, liter of Hornitos, 12 limes, salt, knife from room service
You order a pizza from room service.
You order a liter of Sauza Hornitos tequila.
You order 12 limes.
You order salt.
A knife is provided with the silverware in the mini-kitchenette.
> get knife
Okay.
> z
You wait.
> z x3
Room service delivers your meal.
> eat pizza
You eat the pizza.
> cut limes with knife
You chop up the limes.
> suck piece of lime. drink tequila. eat salt.
You drink a shot of tequila. Mmm, that's tasty.
> repeat x10
You pass out quickly.
You wake up.
It is November 22nd. You are in a hotel room.
There is a bed here. You are in the bed.
There is a bottle of tequila here.
You have a headache.
> examine phone
You have new voice mail.
> get tequila
You take the bottle of tequila.
> d
Uhhh...
> d
You are in a hotel lobby. There are many hazy shapes here.
> drink tequila
Hair of the dog! The shapes resolve into other GMs.
Ned Coletti signs Juan Pierre.
> examine Pierre contract
Juan Pierre signed for $44,000,000 over 5 years.
Bill Stoneman signs Gary Matthews, Jr.
> examine Matthews contract
Gary Matthews, Jr. signed for $50,000,000 over 5 years.
> examine tequila
You notice nothing special about the tequila.
> examine Coletti
Ned Coletti appears happy.
> examine Stoneman
Bill Stoneman appears concerned about your appearance.
> weep
You weep gently.
Billy Beane steals your wallet!
> quit
You scored 200 points out a possible 550 points using 75 turns.
You are a Saavy Trader. Better luck next time.
You need to not sign Carlos Lee to achieve the next higher ranking.
Press enter to start a new game...
More Insanity
I noted this in Derek’s news wrapup, but this deserves its own post.
The Angels have signed Gary Matthews Jr to a 5 year, $50 million contract.
5 years, $50 million for Gary Matthews Jr. This guy.
Let’s take a look at his career, shall we?
In 1993, Matthews was drafted in the 13th round by the San Diego Padres after attending Mission College for one year. He was signed and sent to the Northwest League as a 20-year-old. He barely hit his weight, putting up a lousy .209/.286/.251 line.
He then spent the next three years in Class-A ball, posting mediocre performances and finally earning a promotion to Double-A at age 23. He didn’t hit in Double-A that year, either.
At age 24, repeating Double-A, he put together a decent half season but battled injuries. The performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A in 1999, where he was assigned to the Coors Field of the PCL, Las Vegas. He didn’t hit there, either.
He was then traded to the Cubs for the immortal Rodney Myers in 2000. They watched him not hit in Triple-A at age 26, and let him go on waivers. The Pirates grabbed him in 2001, watched him not hit for them at the major league level, and then sold his contract to the Mets for peanuts. A few months later, the Mets traded him to the Orioles for the John Bale, who is probably hanging out with Rodney Myers today. Matthews actually had a decent season with the Orioles in 2002 at the age of 28, putting up 344 useful at-bats as a solid fourth outfielder.
The Orioles, however, valued those at-bats so much they put him back on waivers, where the Padres claimed him in 2003. He had a slightly worse year, but was still marginally useful, so when the Padres put him on waivers at the end of the year, the Braves put in a claim.
However, he failed to make the Braves in spring training of 2004 and was released. The Rangers signed him to a minor league deal six days later. He went to Texas and resumed his career as a semi-useful fourth outfielder. He was pushed into everyday status in 2005 and was his usual self, hitting .255/.320/.436. After finishing his age 30 season, he looked like he was leaving the prime of his career, which had culminated in him being a decent reserve or a poor starter for a non-contending club.
Then, 2006 rolls around, and at age 31, he has a career year, hitting .313/.371/.495 as an everyday center fielder. However, there wasn’t a significant change in his skillset – his walk rate declined slightly, his power was exactly where it was the previous two seasons, he didn’t hit any more line drives, and his HR rate actually fell. The improvement was completely and utterly tied to his ability to have balls fall into gaps where fielders weren’t standing.
The Angels apparently think that’s a repeatable skill, and are now going to pay Matthews Jr $10 million a season for his age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. They could have claimed him on waivers any one of four times during the past five years, or traded a non-prospect for him, or signed him to a minor league contract when he was released by the Braves.
But no, they didn’t think enough of him then to take him when he was free. A six month stretch where a few extra balls find a hole here or there and a diving catch that ends up on Sportscenter, and now, he’s a $50 million player.
That’s absurd. You can talk about inflation and wanting to win all you want, but Gary Matthews Jr is a completely replaceable role player who is going to be taking a large step back in performance during the next few years.
The Soriano contract was ill conceived, but at least the Cubs got a good player. The Pierre contract was ridiculous, but at least the Dodgers got someone who can legitimately play center field for the next few years and has a skillset that is traditionally valuable among major league GMs.
But Gary Matthews Jr got $50 million for no reason that I can comprehend. What a horrible, horrible contract. We’re going to see more wasted money this offseason than any other offseason in history. Denny Neagle and Chan Ho Park are going to look like relative bargains by the time the decision makers are done blowing a half billion this winter.
Graph of the day for Wednesday the 22nd
Scale for OPS is .400 (.200 BA, no power or walks) to 1.200 (excellent performance by elite hitter)
More PMR defense goodness
David Pinto’s been putting out the 2006 defensive ratings in bits and pieces, so let’s catch up on the first three.
LF: Raul Ibanez is horrible. He’s above Carlos Lee, Chris Duncan, Bobby Kielty, and Manny Ramirez.
CF: Ichiro is ridiculously good. Reed was the worst in the league in his limited time.
1B: Sexson’s pretty bad.
Update: Dave’s comment makes me want to clarify this — he’s right, and I should have said “Raul Ibanez’s rating is horrible” or something similarly clear.
Today’s graph is attendance and win percentage
Full seasons since the Baseball Club of Seattle purchased the team in mid-1992
Graph of the day
Mariners total payroll and rank among MLB teams since the Baseball Club of Seattle purchased the club in mid-1992 (so 1993 on), revised because people are dumb
Note that rank is of 28 from 1993-1998, and of 30 from 1998 on.
Don’t Call It A Comeback …
… I’ve been here for three weeks. And my log-in and password still work. Excellent!
Folks, Dave has on occasion kvetched about cross-country flights, which is certainly a truism. Let me vouch for the fact that moving across the International Date Line is no less trying. Between getting my project set up, trying to furnish a home, fill out myriad mystifying forms and leap headfirst into two mutually-unintelligible languages (three, if you count English), chores aplenty have rolled in. This has left me wondering whether there is an opposite of “combobulated.”
Oh yeah.
Keeping up on baseball news has been shuffled down on the priority list somewhere just above “is there any drawback to living with wild geckos?” and just below “register for the health care system.” I’ve been a lot better at keeping up my Okinawa blog, but then, this place is the epicenter of the next year for me, so I’d better. If you’re interested in mundane details about my apartment, political and environmental news about a place you might not know much about, and the occasional bit of strangeness, pop on over.
Though my absence is no doubt helping the average Post Intelligence Quotient over here, I’ve been looking for an excuse to duck in, say “hi,” and hopefully bring something in the way of Japanese baseball news to the table.
It’s the offseason here, too, but here’s what I’ve got: the Yokohama Bay Stars train in Ginowan City, where I live now. They just did a little meet n’ greet with some American kids. The Bay Stars (along with many Japanese teams) will be back in Okinawa in February for spring training.
That’s right, they have two offseason camps. Rumors that they force pitchers to throw hundreds of pitches during each are unsubstantiated, but let’s just say I’m bringing the camera in three months.
Mariner fan photo blogging: while I was strolling around Highway 58 today trying to sign up for local cultural activities, I ran into these two kids, who were anxious to try out the only English word they know — and, coincidentally, the phrase that I popped over here to say — “Hi!”
Always happy to meet another Mariner fan, I pointed out in Japanese that I’m from Seattle, where the Mariners play. They looked perplexed and then laughed, as it became readily apparent that the young fella wasn’t so much a baseball fan as someone who thought the hat looked sweet.
I also saw a weird advertisement featuring Ichiro today, but neglected to bring my camera, which is always — always — a mistake. At least it will give me fodder for another post sometime in the next several months.
Kidding. Kind of.
Sorry, Cubbie fans
Jim Hendry has just tied a monumental millstone around the necks of the Chicago Cubs franchise, reportedly agreeing to an eight year, $136 million contract for Alfonso Soriano.
Good Lord. This offseason is a repeat of the Hampton/Neagle/Vaughn stupidity.
Comparison Fun
You know I think the free agent market is nuts. You know I support acquiring talent via trade instead of paying these prices. You may not know that there really are good deals to be found, even in this sea of insanity. For instance, look at this comparison of left-fielders:
Player A: .287/.358/.457, 601 PA, 79 runs created, 32 years old, well above average defensively
Player B: .300/.355/.540, 624 PA, 113 runs created, 30 years old, terrible defensively
Player A is more of a line-drive gap hitter with athleticism. His defense is probably worth +5 to +10 runs a year, and even more on a team with a spacious outfield and a flyball pitching staff.
Player B is a classic slugger with power who doesn’t walk enough to be a superstar, but has enough juice in his bat to be a very effective player. His defense is a detriment, but the bat more than makes up for it.
When factoring in total value, Player B is probably 15 to 20 runs better, assuming neither undergoes drastic decline. Player B should make more money, and since he’s two years younger, should get a longer contract, but the differences shouldn’t be monumental. A few million more and an extra year, maybe two, for Player B. Given their worth relative to the ease of finding a left fielder who can hit, I’d say Player A is worth something like 2 years, $10 million and Player B is worth 3 years, $24 million. Or something like that.
Player A is Emil Brown, who the Royals can’t give away, because he’s arbitration eligible for the first time and is probably going to be awarded a salary of $3 to $4 million for 2007.
Player B is Carlos Lee, who has half the teams in baseball fighting to give him a 5 year, $75 million contract.
Major League GMs are willing to pay an extra $11 million a year for “power”, which optimistically translates to a 15-20 run advantage for Lee, and guarantee Lee all-star money through the rest of the decade. Meanwhile, Dayton Moore can’t find anyone interested in Emil Brown, who he’d like to move to create a spot for uberprospect Alex Gordon.
That doesn’t make any sense. Carlos Lee is a better player than Emil Brown, but the difference isn’t huge. The difference certainly isn’t worth an extra $11 million in 2007, much less the commitment from 2008-2011. So please, please, please stop telling us that these contracts are “market value”. They’re free agent value, but the baseball player talent industry is a much larger market than that segment of the population.