Interview with Doug Fister
Conor Glassey’s got an interview with Doug Fister, M’s 7th-round pick and Aquasox reliever, up on his site. Check it out.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, posting, and the M’s
Assume that he posts, for purposes of this discussion. I’m going to start re-posting “How Posting Works” almost entirely
(prelude: player asks their team to be posted, and team decides they’ll do so)
1. Japanese team notifies the Japanese Commissioner’s Office that they’ll let Ichiro be posted.
2. Japanese Commissioner notifies MLB
3. MLB notifies all teams that Ichiro is available
4. Teams have four days to submit a bid. The bid is how much they’ll pay the team not for the player but the chance to negotiate a contract with the player. The Mariners submit a bid of $12.5m.
5. The Japanese team, Orix, is told only of the highest bid amount. Here, it’s the Mariners at $12.5m.
6. The Japanese team has four days to accept or reject the winning bid
7. They make a decision:
If they accept, the winning team has 30 days to agree to a contract with the posted player
If they reject, no deal. They can’t then shop him to the second-highest bidding team or anything.In Ichiro’s case, Orix accepts the posting offer, and the Mariners begin discussing contract terms with Ichiro.
8. Then the player and the winning team negotiate, and one of two things happens:
If the winning team and player can come to an agreement, the player signs and reports to spring training next season, and the Japanese team gets the posting fee. The Mariners and Ichiro agreed, and he signed his original 2001 deal.If the winning team and player can’t come to an agreement, the player returns to the team that controls his rights, and the Japanese team does not get the posting fee. The player then waits for next year or to become a normal FA, when he can go where he wants
Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan had the M’s paying $25m to win the bidding war, and signing him to a 3y, $30m deal.
There are a couple of issues that come into play now:
– The Yankees may be gripped with post-season insanity and capable of doing anything
– Teams sometimes handle posting fees as if it’s not real money
The M’s for years made a strange-seeming argument that for tax reasons, posting fees and contracts for players who’d never been in affiliated baseball (Japanese free agents or posted players, Cuban refugees) didn’t count against payroll or player development budgets. They’ve changed their tune on this recently.
– And yet, it is real money
Ownership groups don’t look at a $30m expenditure and shrug because it’s a special expenditure
– Posting fees aren’t currently, so far as I can tell, counted in any way against the salary cap
This makes chasing Japanese players even more interesting for a team like the Yankees. From their view, instead of paying top dollar for a free-agent pitcher that counts against the cap, they pay about the same amount of total money and get a top pitcher who only counts a little against the cap.
– That could change with the new collective bargaining agreement
Domestic players must regard those posting fees with a shake of the head. The player doesn’t get anything of it, and the winning team’s leverage over the posted player reduces their salary, which hurts other players (in citing comperables during salary negotiations) and the union (less money in dues). They may also believe that the money would otherwise be spent on players, making them all richer. Teams may not mind, either, in the “stop us before we pay free agents too much” way they cry for brakes on the cost of labor.
If this does get into the new agreement and posting fees count against the cap, pro-rated or however, it’ll be a huge blow to the Yankees chances, since they’re already over the cap and are facing escalating taxes each year.
When Ichiro posted, teams tried to put together fairly rational bids, with the M’s willing to ensure they topped everyone.
If Matsuzaka posts, it’s going to get a little crazy. Say you think Matsuzaka is worth $12m/year, which is top-tier free agent pitcher money, and your best guess is that he’s willing to sign for $10m/year over 3y if you win the bid. If you’re an entirely rational team, your bid is $6m.
If Matsuzaka posts, I anticipate every team who needs a pitcher will bid something, even knowing they’ll lose. If you put in a low-ball bid and lose, no harm. If you luck out and win, woo-hoo! You get to see what he wants, maybe even low-ball him yourself, and if he goes back to his team, you’re not out a penny. Bidding a couple of million dollars is like a free lottery ticket.
Figure that there will be a whole bunch of teams that bid $5-$6m. It doesn’t even matter who they are. A serious bid to win has to be at least $10m. The problem then is that you’ll have at leaset two teams willing to spend much, much more than that:
– Mariners (Japanese connection, rich, desperate for pitching, willing to bid on posting players)
– Yankees (richer, possibly more desperate, also willing to bid)
They’re going to consider how much it’s worth to win, how much it’s worth to deny him to another team, and what other things they could put the money to.
$25m? $30m? We’ve heard those floated already, as some of the process plays out in the media. You’re already starting to see teams float numbers and watch for responses and leaks from other organizations. Every team that wants to win is going to play this game as well as it can: the Yankees have a massive press advantage and can control the story (“Yankees to bid $30m says team official”), while the M’s might be able to play that game in Japan (“Matsuzaka to demand 5y/$55m deal”).
While it’s worth paying some attention to if you’re interested in where he’ll end up, much of what comes out after the World Series up to the submission of bids is going to be disinformation and manipulation, as teams try to get each other to lower their bids, letting the winner get a bargain, or to raise their bids, needlessly tying their team’s resources up (if you can get the Yankees to bid $40m when the next-highest bid is $10m, that’s good, unless he rules).
And then there’s the winner’s curse.
The only thing we can know for certain is that if he posts, it’s going to get crazy.
Playoffs for Saturday, Oct 7
San Diego at St. Louis, ESPN @ 10:09 (where did these 09s come from? Are they really that desperate to squeeze another 4m of commercials in?)(yes)
New York Yankees at Detroit, FOX @ 1:09. The A’s await the winner. Go Tigers woooo!
New York Mets at Los Angeles, FOX@ 5:05.
I gotta say, none of these pitching matchups really do it for me. Young v Suppan, Wright v Bonderman, Trachsel v Maddux. Bonderman vs the Yankees is the most interesting, but other than that… eh.
More importantly, you can still RSVP for the USSM Feed this Friday. About half the spots went in the first couple of hours, but all is not lost yet.
USSM Post-Season Feed 06 Details and RSVP
Friday, October 13th, ~6pm-8pm+, Capitol Hill, Seattle. About 50 people total. No announced special guests, just me, Jeff, Dave, you and a good four dozen or so other Mariner fans. We’ll probably do some Q&A, I’ll have some Q&A for everyone… good times. We may podcast any Q&A we do – Jeff’s considering how we’d pull this off.
Some space still available
$22 includes all the pizza you can eat (many varieties, lots of it), salad, soda, and a tip. If you want to order beer, we’ll talk about that at the feed but it’s not included in that $22. The food’s going to be great.
Generally, spots for Feeds go really fast, so I encourage you, if you want to attend, to do so as soon as you can.
To RSVP:
If you have or can use Paypal
1. Email us and say “Put me down for 12 people, please” (your number may vary). If you’re a vegetarian or have other pizza-related requests, let us know so I can get the pizza mix optimal.
2. We say “word” or something similarly awkward.
3. Using the handy information we will send you when you submit your RSVP, use Paypal to send us $22*number of people you’re bringing.
4. I mark you down as having paid on my sheet, and we’re good.
Unless you skip #3, and then I give your spot to someone else.
If you can’t use Paypal for technical, moral, or other reasons, but still feel you’re a valued member of the USSM community like, say, super-reader Paul Covert, who we wish would come by and comment sometime
Drop us a line and we’ll see what we can do.
USSM Post-Season Feed
Friday, October 13th, 6-8+, Capitol Hill, Seattle, ~50 or so spots open. We have a location secured and mucho food and beverages will be available.
No announced special guests, just the USSM crew and you and yours. We’ll probably do some Q&A, I’ll have some Q&A for everyone… good times.
RSVP instructions, cost, etc all to be announced shortly.
Please, if you can’t go, don’t leave a comment that says “I’d love to go, but” — we’d love to have you, but I need to keep this thread clean that’s annoying.
10/5 Playoffs
Sooo, what do we have?
Detroit finally throws a good pitcher at the Yankees after yesterday’s postponement. (in progress). The Yankees not in prime time! OMG WTF!?!
Cards @ Padres, 1:05
Dodgers @ Mets, 5:05
Another day of absolutely ridiculous scheduling
Oakland @ Minnesota, 10am. For my money the most interesting series plays mid-morning here and early afternoon on that other coast. Is this really the best they could do?
Dodgers @ Mets, 1 pm.
Tigers @ Yankees, 5pm. Verlander v Mussina, should be a better game than yesterday.
San Diego @ Cardinals takes a day off. A day off!
Stupid Yankees, always getting their preferential scheduling and everything. Ridiculous.
P-I goes baseball crazy
One of the worst things about the offseason is that there are rarely any stories to read about the Mariners. I hate going to the local daily’s sports section and seeing a top story about UW’s women’s volleyball team.
Thankfully, the P-I isn’t going out without a fight. It’s a veritable cornocopia of baseball content over there today.
John Hickey: State of the Mariners. John’s overview on what the team needs to do this offseason.
Art Thiel: Lincoln on Hot Seat. Art Thiel talks to Howard Lincoln about the pressure he’s facing.
Dave Andriessen: Line-up Stability Big Goal. Andriessen gets to hear Hargrove whine about not getting to post the same line-up 162 days in a row.
Andriessen: Open Secret, M’s Need Pitching. Andriessen weighs in with the M’s need for help in the starting rotation.
Hickey: 0-11 Road Trip. For some reason, John Hickey rehashes the godawful road trip from hell.
And, if that wasn’t enough for you, John Hickey will be chatting at noon about the team.
None of the articles say a whole lot that we didn’t know already, but if you’re into quantity instead of quality, today is your day.
Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan
Okay, so, after several shorter posts explaining parts of the ideology I’m taking into this offseason, and hinting around at some of my ideas, I’m finally unveiling the offseason plan. These are my suggestions on how to reshape the roster to best contend both next year and in the future. Essentially, this is what I would attempt to do if I was handed the keys to the front office and given full power to make personnel decisions.
While this kind of exercise cannot reflect reality, I’ve done my best to make sure that the transactions involved are at least within the realm of possibility. The trade values and free agent dollars are close to what I would expect the actual cost to be. And, as always, keep in mind that the ideas are more important than the names. The main thrust of this post is to get the concepts of how I would build this team across, and not necessarily an advocacy of acquiring a specific player at any cost. So, without further ado, the roster:
| Lineup | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ichiro Suzuki | CF | $12,500,000 |
| 2. | Chris Snelling | RF | $500,000 |
| 3. | Manny Ramirez | DH | $19,000,000 |
| 4. | Jim Edmonds | LF | $8,000,000 |
| 5. | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $11,500,000 |
| 6. | Raul Ibanez | 1B | $5,000,000 |
| 7. | Kenji Johjima | C | $5,430,000 |
| 8. | Jose Lopez | 2B | $350,000 |
| 9. | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $450,000 |
| Bench | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Todd Greene | C | $1,000,000 |
| 2. | Willie Bloomquist | Inf | $850,000 |
| 3. | Jose Cruz Jr | OF | $500,000 |
| 4. | Mike Morse | 1B/3B | $350,000 |
| 5. | Oswaldo Navarro | Util | $350,000 |
| Rotation | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Felix Hernandez | Starter | $400,000 |
| 2. | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Starter | $6,500,000 |
| 3. | Jarrod Washburn | Starter | $9,500,000 |
| 4. | R. Lopez/A. Guzman | Starter | $1,000,000 |
| 5. | C. Baek/T. Redding | Starter | $350,000 |
| Bullpen | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | J.J. Putz | Closer | $3,000,000 |
| 2. | Mark Lowe | RH Setup | $350,000 |
| 3. | George Sherrill | LH Setup | $350,000 |
| 4. | Jon Huber | RH Middle | $350,000 |
| 5. | Eric O’Flaherty | LH Middle | $350,000 |
| 6. | Emiliano Fruto | Long Relief | $350,000 |
Whew. That’s a lot of changes to digest, I know, so here’s the specific transactions that lead to a 25 man roster that comes in at just under $89 million.
Sign Ichiro to a 3 year, $42 million extension from 2008-2010.
While this doesn’t necessarily have to be the first chronological move, it is the first domino that needs to be discussed. The way this team needs to be built this offseason, uncertainty about the team’s star center fielder (and man, it’s nice to say that) is not something they can afford to deal with. If they’re going to build a team around him, they can’t have him walk away at the end of next season. He either needs to be re-signed or traded. I’m betting on, and pulling for, re-signed.
Bid $25 million in posting fee to secure rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka and sign him to a 3 year, $30 million contract.
Convince ownership that, like they did with Ichiro, this should be a special expenditure that does not count against the budget. The key in the contract negotiations will be to not grant him free agency when the deal is up. After this contract expires, he’ll be arbitration eligible, and still under Mariner control through 2012. To justify the posting fee, the Mariners have to control his rights for six years.
Trade Richie Sexson to San Francisco for DH Eddie Martinez-Esteve and OF Nate Schierholtz.
The Giants badly need hitters and have truckloads of cash to spend, but they’ve shown a strong resistance to giving out long term contracts. Sexson’s 2 year, $28 million deal is a bargain compared to Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano’s demands, and the Giants get their cleanup hitter for a pair of outfield prospects who may or may not develop into major league regulars. The Mariners clear salary space for other acquisitions, as well as acquiring two bats who could potentially help in the second half of 2007 or 2008.
Trade Ben Broussard and Julio Mateo to Baltimore for RHP Jim Johnson.
The Mariners continue to clear salary and roster spots, saving about $5 million in salary in this deal and bringing in a 23-year-old starting pitching prospect who could be stashed in Tacoma and provide rotation depth. The Orioles badly need some power in their line-up, as well as bullpen help, and they have a surplus of younger starting pitchers. Johnson adds depth to the Tacoma rotation, giving them another guy with a good arm who is a couple improvements away from being in the mix for an end-of-rotation starter spot.
Trade Rafael Soriano, Jeremy Reed, and Francisco Cruceta to Boston for DH Manny Ramirez.
The annual Manny Ramirez trade request has reportedly occurred again, and the Mariners are one of a few teams that could actually swallow the $38 million he’s still owed, have a need for a DH, and have the young talent the Red Sox will demand in return. The Mariners significant bullpen depth will allow them to survive the loss of Soriano and Curceta, while Jeremy Reed’s spot with the team has essentially been usurped by Chris Snelling. Reed gives the Red Sox a cheap legitimate center fielder, allowing them to shift Crisp back to left field and significantly upgrade their outfield defense. Soriano gives them a young flamethrowing reliever to replace Papelbon, and Cruceta gives them depth in middle relief or as a swing starter. Boston also sheds $19 million in salary commitments each of the next two years, allowing them to chase another top tier free agent.
Trade Eduardo Perez, Wladmir Balentien and Justin Thomas to St. Louis for Jim Edmonds and $2 million in cash.
The Cardinals have made overtures about declining the option on Jim Edmonds’ contract and paying him a $3 million buyout rather than having him under contract next year at $10 million. His injuries have hurt them this year, and at 38, he’s definitely at the end of his career. However, he’s still a productive player when he’s on the field, and the Mariners should take advantage of the Cardinals need to retool. Balentien and Thomas give them two midlevel prospects, Perez gives LaRussa another bat off the bench, and they save $1 million in cash by not paying the buyout to make him a free agent. The Mariners, in turn, get a patient left-handed slugging outfielder whose swing is perfect for Safeco Field and would provide an all around upgrade in the outfield. His defense isn’t what it was, but he’d be a major improvement in left field, and his offense against RHP is still among the best in the league.
Trade Jake Woods, Nate Schierholtz and Michael Wilson to the Cubs for RHP Angel Guzman.
Guzman is a classic change-of-scenery guy. A former top prospect, who has dominated the minors with his fastball/change combination, has struggled in Chicago, and at age 25, the Cubs are running low on patience. Their desire to add a veteran to the rotation this offseason likely eliminates his chances of landing a job in the 2007 rotation, and the Cubs could certainly use a couple of outfield prospects with some power in their bats.
He gives the Mariners another league minimum option as an end of rotation starter with significant upside. He uses his changeup as an out-pitch weapon to miss bats and has shown good command throughout his career in the minors. His breaking ball is still average, but the change-up is good enough to feature as his offspeed pitch. As a flyball pitcher, leaving Wrigley for Safeco would be a dream come true. Baseball is littered with guys who profiled as Guzman did, struggled early in their careers, and developed into useful starting pitchers later. Call it the Carl Pavano mold.
Sign C Todd Greene, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, RHP Tim Redding, and OF Jose Cruz Jr to one year contracts.
Having spent a huge majority of the payroll on Ramirez, Edmonds, and Matsuzaka, the M’s need to get some undervalued role players to fill out the roster. I’ve written up Lopez before, so read that post if you haven’t before. Greene gives the Mariners a backup catcher with a little power who would be a significant improvement over Rene Rivera, and Jose Cruz Jr gives the team a fourth outfielder that can hit left-handers and play both corners as well as center in a pinch. Redding comes in to challenge Baek for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Convert Raul Ibanez to first base.
For the pitching staff’s sake, Ibanez needs to get out of left field, but he’s been consistent in his desire to play the field. With the acqusition of Manny Ramirez, DH is taken, and the removal of Broussard’s contract was necessary to get the team under payroll. Ibanez has played first for long stretches before, and with an offseason of preperation and some work with Mike Goff, he should be adequate at the position. The defensive improvement Edmonds provides in left will more than make up for any frustrations we’d have with Ibanez at first.
_____________________________________________________________________
Okay, so, that’s the team. The total payroll for the 25 man roster comes in at $88.7 million. The team is, in my opinion, significantly better than the one they’re going to end the year with, and a team that is good enough to win a World Series. Seriously. Let’s take a look at some strengths and weaknesses:
Team Strengths
This team can hit. You’re looking at something like an .800 OPS, in Safeco, from this line-up, as long as Ramirez and Edmonds each play 140 games. Aside from the Yankees and their all-star lineup, it would have a chance to be the best in the American League. The defense would also be upgraded, which would have a cascading effect to improve the pitching staff. There’s not a bad position player on the team, and while the bench isn’t great, there’s depth in the upper minors. It also is a roster that doesn’t block the long term positions of the organization’s better prospects, and gives opportunities for young players to break into roles once they’ve shown they can succeed in the minors. And, for what its worth, Jim Edmonds is a revered clubhouse leader with all kinds of playoff experience, and should at least provide a respected voice in the clubhouse.
Team Weaknesses
Injuries could be a big problem. Snelling, Ramirez, and Edmonds haven’t been pictures of health, and that’s the heart of the batting order. There’s not a true first baseman on the roster, so if Ibanez and Morse are absurdly awful with the glove, you have to live with it. The bullpen’s depth has been thinned out significantly, and you’d be leaning on unproven pitchers for significant contributions in the middle innings. The back of the rotation is filled with innings eaters who lack a true outpitch, and, with the exception of Angel Guzman, are not the power arms the organization covets. The pitching staff would be built around a 21-year-old and a guy who has never pitched an inning in the majors.
Expectations
Knowing the risks and the potential failures, this is still a good team with a real shot to go deep in the playoffs. On paper, depending on what the rest of the AL West does, I’d pencil it in for 85-95 wins. The key players would be Edmonds, Felix, and Matsuzaka, with the performance of those three probably determining how far the team goes. It’s a good enough team to win the AL West in 2007, and it’s still a team that is young in the core and is setup to contend long term. The Mariners can win next year with this roster and not sacrifice the future to do so.
Best. News. Ever.
Well, maybe not ever. But it’s darned close.
Headline: “Ichiro Suzuki tells Mariners he’s willing to play centre next year”
“He said he wants to play there, so that’s good,” manager Mike Hargrove said before Friday’s game against Texas.
Like I said, pretty freaking cool.