Game 150, Mariners at Rangers
Hernandez vs Millwood, 5:10 pm.
Happy second to last Felix Day. A start in Arlington probably isn’t the best way to give him a great ending to the season, but he’s good enough to throw a shutout in any park if he’s got his command. Let’s hope for Good Felix tonight.
Regular recent Grover line-up, with Snelling hitting 8th. So dumb.
Looking Ahead: Francisco Cruceta, sort of
So, last week, I decided to writeup Francisco Cruceta as the next in the Looking Ahead series, but I just hadn’t gotten around to writing it. This morning, when I woke up, I discovered that Jeff Sullivan beat me to it.
Jeff nails Cruceta’s strengths and weaknesses perfectly. Summing up:
Francisco Cruceta is a lesson in why you can’t just automatically apply some general ML translation to minor league statistics and come out with a reliable performance projection. He’s been able to succeed by taking advantage of the one thing minor league batters do significantly worse than their Major League counterparts, and now that he’s in Seattle, he’s having a hell of a time trying to adjust. Obviously he’s not five-runs-in-one-inning bad, but he’s not nine-strikeouts-in-every-game good, either, despite what some people might’ve been hoping for as they tracked his progress in Tacoma this year.
This is the simplest way of putting things: Francisco Cruceta is not a starting pitcher. At least, not a good one, anyway, not in Seattle…
Cruceta is out of options next spring, so he’ll have to stick with the team out of spring training or the M’s will have to attempt to slip him through waivers. So, really, the M’s need to decide pretty soon whether he’s going to get a legitimate chance to make the team next spring, and his best chance to do that is as a reliever. The team is extremely crowded in the bullpen, however, so there’s a decent chance that Cruceta could end up as trade bait.
Anyways, read Jeff’s piece on Cruceta, while I go hunting for someone obscure enough that he can’t steal my thunder. Maybe I’ll do a Looking Ahead: Michael Hrynio. That’ll show him.
Game 148, Mariners at Royals
Pineiro vs Redman, 4:10 pm.
It’s a Saturday, it’s a terrible pitching matchup, and since Redman’s a lefty, there will be no Doyle today.
Go do something else.
Undervalued Pitcher #1
A few days ago, I talked about why I don’t like long term contracts for pitchers, and why I expect the big name free agents this winter to get contracts that are not in their signing club’s best interests. There’s no way I’d get involved in the Barry Zito negotiations, and from the sounds of what he’s going to receive, I’d bow out on Jason Schmidt very quickly as well.
Of course, since I’m eliminating all the popular names from the discussion of who to acquire, the natural question that follows is “well then, who do you want?”, since we have to actually field a starting rotation next year. I’m of the opinion that pitchers, due to the significant effects that random variation can have on their performance, can often be valued incorrectly. Since the price of pitching has gotten so out of control on the free market, the best way to build a team is to spend on position players, develop your own elite starters, and find bargains to fill out your rotation.
I’ve identified three pitchers who will almost certainly be made available this winter that will require only a moderate cost in terms of talent to acquire and 2007 salary, and will come with no long term commitment, but could be expected to give the team quality innings at the back of the rotation. All three are undervalued, in my opinion, and would be terrific candidates for the Mariners to acquire, allowing them to spend most of their assets elsewhere.
Undervalued Pitcher #1 is probably going to be non-tendered by his current team this offseason because of his poor season. Among qualified American League starters, only Joel Pineiro and Carlos Silva have posted higher ERAs. His ERA is 25 percent worse than league average this season, and it was 15 percent worse than league average last year. He made $3.75 million this year and is arbitration eligible, and it’s unlikely that any team is going to want to take him to arbitration again after posting a 5.88 ERA.
Ladies and Gentleman, Rodrigo Lopez. You might remember him from the May 25th game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 1/3 innings, or the August 1st game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 2/3 innings, by far his two best starts of the year.
So yes, I really am suggesting that the Mariners acquire a pitcher who posted an ERA near 6.00 and who got beat around by everyone in baseball not wearing Seattle on their chest. This isn’t exactly the kind of acquisition that is going to get fans excited about coming back to Safeco Field, but it is the kind of acquisition that good teams make. Rodrigo Lopez is the classic buy-low candidate.
Over the past three years, he’s thrown 171, 209, and 182 innings. He’s 30 years old and has proven to be a durable innings eater who is remarkably consistent. But he’s not just a Ryan Franklin type rubber arm who takes the hill every 5 days and eliminates your chance to win the game. Rodrigo Lopez actually has some ability. Look at this five year history:
Season K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA 2002 6.22 2.84 1.05 38.2% 10.1% 0.263 75.4% 4.36 3.57 2003 6.31 2.63 1.47 35.0% 13.7% 0.345 67.5% 5.00 5.82 2004 6.38 2.85 1.11 36.2% 11.0% 0.284 78.2% 4.37 3.59 2005 5.07 2.71 1.20 35.8% 10.9% 0.302 67.0% 4.81 4.50 2006 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88
That’s a pretty interesting chart. Several of those numbers have been amazingly consistent, while several others have been all over the board. He’s posted remarkably similar walk, strikeout, and flyball rates the past five years, showing almost no year to year variation in those core skills. His HR/FB and LOB% have been less consistent, however, ranging from very good to very poor, which has completely driven the wild swings in his ERA.
If you judge Lopez on run prevention, he was excellent in 2002 and 2004, mediocre in 2005, and terrible in 2003 and 2006.
If you judge Lopez on his skillset, however, he’s been practically the same pitcher every year for the last five years. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rodrigo Lopez. There’s no chance he’ll be an ace, because his stuff just isn’t good enough, but when he’s stranding runners, he’s a valuable middle of the rotation starter. He hasn’t stranded enough runners in 2006, but if you’ve been reading the blog at all the past year, you know that isn’t predictive in nature.
One more chart, just for fun:
Pitcher K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA J. Verlander 6.07 2.81 0.92 34.5% 9.5% 0.293 78.6% 4.20 3.42 Barry Zito 6.15 3.95 1.12 38.1% 9.2% 0.278 78.1% 4.97 3.86 Jose Contreras 6.16 2.44 0.86 38.9% 7.8% 0.286 69.8% 4.04 3.97 Rodrigo Lopez 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88 Kevin Millwood 6.48 2.10 0.91 33.2% 9.6% 0.315 67.2% 3.82 4.47 Ervin Santana 6.60 3.08 1.03 44.4% 8.5% 0.278 66.3% 4.41 4.50 Josh Beckett 6.90 3.33 1.61 38.8% 15.1% 0.270 68.7% 5.25 5.09 Vicente Padilla 6.96 2.96 0.94 35.7% 9.5% 0.307 69.5% 4.27 4.44
Based on his peripherals, that’s the class of pitcher that Rodrigo Lopez has pitched like. His 5.88 ERA is an extreme outlier based on his actual performance, just like Jarrod Washburn’s 3.20 ERA was an extreme outlier the other way last year. Lopez isn’t as good as all those pitchers, but the difference is far less drastic than you’d imagine. With a likely regression in his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rates, combined with his durability and consistency in his core skills, Rodrigo Lopez looks like a prime candidate for a bounce back 2007 season.
Lopez would make a fine #4 starter for the Mariners next year, and he’ll probably cost no more than $2 million for the season, thanks to his atrocious 2006 ERA.
The power of ERA is still strong, and it’s going to cause Rodrigo Lopez to be significantly undervalued this offseason. The Mariners would do well to take advantage of this particular market inefficiency.
Game 146, Mariners at Royals
Washburn vs Perez, 5:10 pm.
Anyone want to try to explain Odalis Perez’s career path? Two years ago, he was a heavy groundballer who could miss bats and he posted a ridiculously high 79% LOB% which gave him an unsustainably low ERA and made it look like a breakout year. Last year, his walk/strikeout/home run rates were pretty much the same, but his LOB% went from one of the best in the league to one of the worst, and his ERA went up a point and a half. He also spent half the season on the DL.
He comes back this year, gets demoted to the bullpen, sees his strikeout rate go through the floor but simultaneously cuts his walk rate, basically becoming a Ryan Franklin type pitcher, but continues to allow almost everyone who reaches base to score. He makes a bunch of stupid comments, and the Dodgers give away a decent prospect to the Royals in turn for taking his salary off their hands. Since coming to Kansas City, his walk and strikeout rates jump back, but now he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and he STILL can’t strand runners to save his life.
Basic skillsets are generally pretty stable, even if the results aren’t. But Odalis Perez’s skillset is all over the board, and he’s now posted ridiculously low strand rates the past two years, despite being a pretty decent pitcher with the bases empty.
He’s the kind of pitcher who makes you want to throw your hands in the air and say who knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a perfect game tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t last two innings.
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Beltre, 3B
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Perez, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Lopez, 2B
9. WFB, RF
Shakeup
Dan Rohn and Ron Hassey have left the team, effective immediately.
These aren’t the first firings, and they won’t be the last. Expect a fairly significant purge of the coaching staff throughout the organization.
Game 145, Blue Jays at Mariners
Burnett vs Baek, 1:35 pm.
It’s power vs finesse in several ways. Baek takes his junk-junkier-junkiest repertoire up against an offense that can whack the ball all over the park, while the M’s take their singlefest offense up against A.J. Burnett’s high velocity offerings. I’d bet on power in both cases.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Bad Beltre, 3B (some of his swings lately… dear god)
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Snelling, RF
8. Rivera, C
9. Bloomquist, 2B
Game 144, Blue Jays at Mariners
Marcum vs Meche, 7:05 pm.
Okay, it might not be a great reason, but at least you might sort of care how Gil Meche finishes out the year, since it could affect what type of draft pick compensation we get when he walks away as a free agent this winter. That’s better than last night, when there just wasn’t a reason to watch.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Beltre, 3B
3. Betancourt, SS (6-27 as #3 hitter – .222/.222/.222. Only Grover would think this is working.)
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Lopez, 2B
9. Doyle, RF (Carl Everett went 0-16 about 142 times and never got dropped in the order…)
Line-ups by in large don’t matter, but they do serve as small insights into a manager’s ability to think critically. Or, in this case, have absolutely no idea about what kind of skills the player on his team possess.
You get what you pay for
When the Mariners signed Jarrod Washburn last winter, they thought they were getting a better pitcher than the one they’ve seen in 2006. Their problem, though, was one of misconception. Take a look at ’05 vs ’06 Washburn:
2005: 177 1/3 IP, 184 H, 51 BB, 94 K, 19 HR, 8 HBP
2006: 180 1/3 IP, 184 H, 52 BB, 101 K, 22 HR, 7 HBP
In essentially the same number of innings, he’s given up exactly the same number of hits, one more walk, three more home runs, and struck out 7 more batters while hitting one less. You couldn’t find a more consistent pitcher from last year to this year if you tried.
The rise in ERA, from 3.20 to 4.39, is completely due to amount of baserunners he’s allowed to score. Last year, he had the highest LOB% of any pitcher in the AL at 81.8%. This year, it’s down to a league average 70.2%.
The moral, as always: ERA is useless.
Game 143, Blue Jays at Mariners
Lilly vs Woods, 7:05 pm.
To be honest with you, I have no idea why you should watch this game. Lefty on the mound, so no Doyle tonight. The team can’t hit southpaws. Jake Woods is starting against the Blue Jays. If this game has a redeeming quality, I don’t know what it is.
CF Ichiro!
3B Beltre
SS Betancourt
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Perez
C Johjima
2B Lopez
RF Morse
versus Toronto’s vastly superior batting order.