Game 157, A’s at Mariners
Esteban Loaiza, who has been lights out in the second half, against Cesar Jimenez, who isn’t a major league pitcher. The A’s can clinch the division with a win.
The Cost of This Team
It seems like, at the moment, the prevailing school of thought on what the Mariners should do this offseason is keep this team almost entirely in tact, but just add two quality starting pitchers to the mix, with most of the general population agreeing that those two pitchers should be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jason Schmidt. People generally seem to be satisfied with the rest of the roster, and feel that spending the available budget money on starting pitching is the way to go.
Except that it’s not. Assuming the organization don’t raise payroll significantly, the Mariners can’t afford to do that. They can’t even really come close.
The team has spent approximately $81 to $88 million on its 25 man roster the past several years. You’ll hear the team report a higher payroll figure that includes the entirity of the 40 man roster, buyouts and contract bonuses, and a reserve fund for “special circumstances”. But, in reality, the combined yearly salaries of the team’s 25 man roster has been in the $80-90 million range, and there’s no reason to believe that the ownership is going to give management significantly more to work with this offseason. You can argue that they should, but that’s another post entirely. Dealing with the realities of a budget that isn’t likely to increase by much if any, we’re bound by an upper limit of about $85-$90 million for the 25 man roster.
As it stands now, the Mariners have approximately $75-$80 million committed to 2006 contracts for the 23 players that most people assume should return next year. Take a look:
Player 2006 Salary 2007 Salary Richie Sexson $13,000,000.00 $14,000,000.00 Adrian Beltre $12,900,000.00 $13,500,000.00 Ichiro Suzuki $12,530,000.00 $12,530,000.00 Jarrod Washburn $7,450,000.00 $9,500,000.00 Kenji Johjima $5,433,333.00 $5,433,333.00 Raul Ibanez $4,916,667.00 $5,000,000.00 Ben Broussard $2,487,500.00 $4,000,000.00 J.J. Putz $415,000.00 $3,500,000.00 Rafael Soriano $450,000.00 $3,000,000.00 Eduardo Perez $1,750,000.00 $2,000,000.00 Julio Mateo $700,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Willie Bloomquist $650,000.00 $850,000.00 Chris Snelling $328,500.00 $500,000.00 Yuni Betancourt $677,500.00 $450,000.00 Felix Hernandez $340,000.00 $400,000.00 Jose Lopez $335,000.00 $400,000.00 George Sherrill $333,000.00 $400,000.00 Jeremy Reed $375,000.00 $375,000.00 Jake Woods $332,000.00 $332,000.00 Mark Lowe $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Emiliano Fruto $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Rene Rivera $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Total $66,389,000.00 $78,155,833.00
That’s a complete roster, minus two starting pitchers. The salaries for Putz, Soriano, Broussard, and Snelling are estimates, as they are arbitration eligible and we won’t know exactly what they’re going to earn next year until some point this winter. That said, I’m pretty confident that the esimates are pretty close to what they’ll be looking at, salary wise, next year. Some of the names are easily replaced with others; Fruto and Woods could easily be Baek and Huber, but for salary purposes, it doesn’t really matter.
While it’s true that we’re shedding the costs of Pineiro, Meche, Guardado, and Spiezio, we’re also giving out pretty significant raises. Putz, Soriano, and Broussard are going to get large increases in their pay through arbitration, Jarrod Washburn has a $2 million salary bump for 2007, Richie Sexson gets $1 million more, and the salary escalations for Beltre, Mateo, Bloomquist, and Perez total almost $1.5 million combined. As you can see from the total column, it will cost almost $12 million more to field this same roster next year compared to this year.
That leaves the Mariners with approximately $7-12 million (giving the team a payroll range of $85-$90 million for the 25 man roster) in spending money for the offseason, depending on how the arbitration cases go. $7-$12 million for two starting pitchers. That might get you Daisuke Matsuzaka, as long as the posting fee doesn’t count against payroll, but then you’re done. Would you be happy if the Mariners essentially brought back this same team with just Matsuzaka (or Schmidt, or whatever $10 million pitcher you think we’d acquire) added to the rotation to replace Gil Meche?
I don’t think so. I wouldn’t be. This team still has some issues that need to be resolved, and acquiring one starting pitcher and asking the rest of the team to pick up the slack isn’t the kind of offseason that most of us are hoping for.
If you want the Mariners to make significant additions to this roster, you necessarily have to be in favor of significant subtractions. The Mariners are in line to pay Sexson, Beltre, Ichiro, and Washburn $49 million for next season, leaving about $40 million for the other 21 players. When you have 54 percent of your payroll tied up in four players, those guys have to provide a significant contribution to the team. It’s nearly impossible to create a supporting cast good enough to carry those four players to the playoffs. The Big Four, salary wise, have to produce at a higher level for this team to succeed.
Or, alternately, one of them has to go. This team could create significant budget room by trading one of these four players, giving them enough budget room to replace them with a similarly compensated but higher performing player. Considering the team already has significant holes in the rotation, it’s extremely unlikely they would move Jarrod Washburn, and I’m not sure they could even if they wanted to. So, realistically, if you want any kind of serious upgrade this offseason, one of Sexson, Beltre, or Ichiro has to go.
Essentially, the M’s have two options. Keep this team in tact and make just one significant move this offseason, or remove one of the highly paid players that is already here in order to create room for a more complete roster.
Sexson, Beltre, or Ichiro; which one would you trade?
Your guide to Everett alternatives, revisited
When the M’s were rumored to be interested in and then signed Everett, and I spent a fair amount of my time savaging the signing for baseball and non-baseball reasons, we floated a number of names as possible alternatives. How’d they do?
Do nothing – I suggested putting one of the random Tacoma-bound guys in, taking even Dobbs over Everett as the DH. Dobbs hit .313/.374/.444 in Tacoma, which even taking a huge translation bump would have been a lot better than Everett.
Other left-handed/switch-hitters available at the time who were mentioned in discussions:
Burnitz – signed a one-year, $6m deal with Pittsburgh. Hit .232/.289/.424 at age 37
Durazo – without being able to know anything for certain about his health, I said “That may make him a bargain, but it certainly makes him a risk.” Went through three organizations this year, and couldn’t play a base. And yet… in AAA, his total line was like .290/.385/.430. Even a semi-crippled Durazo would have been an upgrade.
Hatteberg – “no thanks” The Picking Machine signed a one-year, $750k deal with the Reds, and hit .290/.386/.443, a surprising performance reversing what looked like years of deciline, arguably his best hitting season ever. Heh. You never know.
Higginson – nope. Didn’t play.
Jones – Dave’s talked about this, but Jones did really well… but required a multi-year contract for more money
Lawton – hee hee.
Travis Lee – .224/.312/.364.
Tino Martinez – retired
Mueller – injured his knee, ending his season and possibly his career.
There a couple of lessons to be learned from the Carl Everett signing:
– Paying for things like grit or intensity that can’t be measured or reliably evaluated means you get ripped off a lot
– The cost of reliable veterans over taking a chance is high and doesn’t guarantee reliability
– Mike Hargrove is a horrible talent evaluator
Frequently overlooked, though, is that Bavasi’s shown, over and over, that he understands that contracts are sunk costs, and been willing to move to get past the team’s mistakes. Maybe not as aggressively as we’d always like, but we should acknowledge at least that there are many teams that, having hyped a guy like Everett up and spent that much money on him, would have run him out there all year long and let the option pick up, either out of fear of embarassment or inability to acknowledge they were wrong.
We can point to a lot of the M’s free agent signings as mistakes, but at least they’ve been able to confront them and move on. That’s valuable.
Carlos Truinfel
I just got home, so I’m sure this has been mentioned in the comments somewhere already, but the Mariners announced today that they’ve signed Carlos Truinfel to a reported $1.3 million deal. Truinfel was one of the more hyped Dominican prospects and is represented by Scott Boras. While good information on 16-year-old kids is hard to come by, this is what we’re told.
He’s 6’2, about 180, and he’s a hitting shortstop. The Mariners didn’t sign him for his flash with the leather; this is one of those kids who can swing the bat from an early age. As with any tall 16-year-old who can hit, there are questions about his defense, but that’s normal, and I wouldn’t worry about it. The fact that the M’s took a shot on a kid who can swing the stick is a positive development, and something we didn’t see near enough of before Bill Bavasi and Bob Fontaine came aboard.
Truinfel was scouted personally by the Mariners top international scout, Bob Engle, who has a pretty solid track record with picking kids like this. He’s reportedly leaving the organization at season’s end, so this may be a pretty nice going away present.
So, basically, the M’s just added a high ceiling hitter to the farm system, which is almost never a bad thing. The success rate of big bonus Dominican hitters isn’t great, but it’s good to see the Mariners investing in their farm system and chasing after guys who can hit the ball above all else. While Truinfel is probably at least 4 years away from the major leagues, this is the kind of thing fans should get behind.
Welcome to the club, Carlos Truinfel.
Jake Woods, Litmus Test
Jake Woods is 25-years-old, left-handed, makes the league minimum, is a former semi-hyped prospect, and has now thrown 95 innings this season with an ERA of 3.88, which is 15 percent better than the average AL pitcher in 2006.
What the Mariners decide to do with Jake Woods this offseason will be an interesting test of whether their methods for evaluating pitchers have improved at all in the past year. Woods’ combination of age, handedness, salary, and ERA will make him a somewhat valuable player to a decent number of teams this offseason. The Mariners, however, couldn’t need a guy like Jake Woods any less.
He’s a replacement level pitcher in an organization that has so many replacement level pitchers, they don’t have room for them all. If the Mariners are willing to look past the ERA and see him for what he is – a guy with average stuff and bad command whose ERA is a complete fluke – they should admit that the best service he could provide for them going forward is to return a more suitable player for this team in trade.
Jake Woods is a litmus test. An organization that understands pitching would trade him this offseason. We’ll see if the Mariners are up to the challenge.
Ron Fairly quits
Announced today.
I’m not sure what to write about this, exactly. Growing up on Fairly, I didn’t care much, came to really, deeply dislike him and then, over time, forgave his shortcomings and found him, especially compared to the other color guys the M’s have, reasonably sharp, willing to criticize a bad play or bad move, and most of all, while often more talkative than I would have liked, he also knew when it was important to shutup, and he had, I’d say, a much better rhythm working with Dave than any of the others. I far prefered him to Valle/Henderson, who are mute-button annoying.
I’d love to see the team hire someone new and interesting, or try and mix in more shorter-term guys like they did with Marzano and others. Most color guys have a couple things they can talk about intelligently and really add something for the fans, but called on to fill the air three hours a day, game after game, they become repetitive and grating. If you can’t find one super-good one, why not borrow a concept from baseball teams and platoon? Find color guys with expertise on the team they’re playing, for instance. Pick some heel announcers. Be creative.
Still, I fear that his replacement, be it a full-time Hendu/Valle rotation or a new 3rd, will make us wish Fairly was back.
Game 152, Mariners at Rangers
Baek vs Tejeda, 5:05.
As ESPN’s preview will tell you, Baek has a 15 inning scoreless streak against Texas. Why we’re supposed to care, I’m not sure. Expect another beatdown of his junk in the bandbox known as Ameriquest Field.
And, just to piss us off, Willie Bloomquist is starting in right field tonight, and Doyle gets the night off. Against a right-handed pitcher.
Yes, Willie got 5 hits last night. Big whoop de freaking do. That brought his average all the way up to .255 for the year and he has 9 extra base hits in 235 at-bats. Chris Snelling has 10 extra base hits in 77 at-bats, and he’s hitting .313/.413/.552 against right-handed pitching.
Oh, and if you want to use the “he’s in a slump” argument, he’s hitting .294/.429/.529 in the last 7 days. So no.
Mike Hargrove, the Steve Kelley of managers. They both deserved to be stocking shelves for a living 10 years ago.
Steve Kelley, Awful Sportswriter
Against my better judgment, I’m going to link to a Steve Kelley article. He’s been so bad at his job for so long that I barely even knew he was still employed by the Times. While they’ve had Larry Stone doing yeoman’s work and covering the game in amazing detail, they’ve allowed this guy to continue butchering columns for no apparent reason.
Today, he tackles the Mariners. Sort of. We’ll do a Pocket-Lint style breakdown, since this column is worthy of that special kind of scorn.
Soon the propaganda will begin to flow from the Mariners’ clubhouse and front office as relentless as political ads.
The season will be spun as if the good ship Mariner is back on course. As if serious holes have been filled. As if significant progress has been made. As if the future is as bright as the center-field glare on a sunny Sunday at Safeco.
The M’s will be spinning like those contestants in the bat races at minor-league ballparks.
Classic Kelley writing, right here. One sentence paragraphs, no value added.
We’ll hear about all of the improvements they have made. The double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez is set for the rest of the decade. J.J. Putz accepted the challenge and has become the undisputed closer for 2007.
You’ll hear about improvements like — yippee — the fact they didn’t lose 90 games this season. That they have made progress the past three seasons, from 63 wins two seasons ago, to 69 last year, to — hold on to your M’s cap — more than 70 this season.
The front office will tell you the bullpen is one of the deepest in baseball. It will mention that Ichiro had another 200-plus-hit season. And Richie Sexson had another 100-plus-RBI year. And Raul Ibanez was as steady as a sextant.
Of course, all those things are true. The M’s have answered many of the questions they had last year. 12 months ago, we didn’t have a guy we could count on in any of the up-the-middle positions and the team lacked a dominant relief ace. This year, we’ve found out that we have many of the players a championship club needs. We don’t have enough, but we have more than we had a year ago.
The Mariners only are better in comparison to their recent past. They aren’t better in the standings, familiarly lodged in last place in the American League West, 4 ½ games behind third-place Texas.
So what if last year they finished 26 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Angels and are only 15games behind first-place Oakland this season.
That shouldn’t be anybody’s definition of true improvement.
Praising that as a positive step is like a golfer bragging about lowering his handicap by six strokes, then admitting it’s still 35.
Welcome to the world of Steve Kelly, where going from awful to average is not improvement. Apparently, you can’t improve until you reach “good” status, and anything short of good is all the same.
Their offense has scored the second-fewest runs in the American League. They spent the whole season without finding a No. 2 hitter behind Ichiro, who despite all of his hits, is not a good leadoff hitter. How could someone with his speed have only 33 extra-base hits in 648 at-bats?
I’d say Chris Snelling and his .286/.385/.506 line have made a solid case as a #2 hitter, wouldn’t you? Or do you not like 24-year-olds who have Edgar Martinez’s skillset? And then he evaluates Ichiro as “not a good leadoff hitter” by disparaging his lack of extra base hits? Really, that’s our criteria for a good leadoff hitter now? Who, exactly, would he consider a good leadoff hitter, Ryan Howard?
What front-office guy is listening to the fans?
Bill Bavasi, for one.
In 2001 and 2002 the Mariners drew more than 3.5 million fans. This year, they will draw about 2.3 million, some 400,000 fewer than last season. Shouldn’t that be a sign the fans are angry?
Who speaks for them?
We speak for ourselves, Steve. And one of the nifty things about this whole interweb thingy that all the kids are playing with now is that the fans actually have some legitimate avenues of communicating with the team. And if you don’t think the Mariners read this blog, you’re kidding yourselves. We don’t need anyone in the front office to speak for us. We’re speaking for us.
Who will ask, “Exactly what has general manager Bill Bavasi done to make the franchise better?”
He’s taken the burning ashes of an old, washed-up team that Pat Gillick left him and turned it into one of the most loaded organizations in baseball in under-25 talent.
The Mariners need to be bold this off-season. They need to sign two top-of-the-rotation starters, preferably Japan’s Daisuke Matsuzaka, the MVP of the World Baseball Classic, and San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt.
Everyone wants Matsuzaka. But here’s a cautionary tale for all those Jason Schmidt fans – you now have Steve Kelly on your side, and that’s never a winning proposition.
They need to find another power hitter like Carlos Lee, so that, once again, the Mariners’ offense isn’t at the bottom of the American League.
Carlos Lee: .300/.358/.535 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Raul Ibanez: .280/.347/.493 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a worse hitter get as much love heading into his free agent season. Carlos Lee isn’t the answer to any question the Mariners need to be asking.
Imagine a news conference next month announcing the return of Lou Piniella to manage the club. Or think how excited Seattle might get if a favorite son like Joey Cora were brought back to manage.
Right, because Lou Piniella did a great job winning in Tampa Bay. And Joey Cora now gets to manage the Mariners because, what, he cried in 1995? Really, that’s our criteria for choosing a guy to run the club?
As recently as 2002, the Mariners owned this town. The sound of Dave Niehaus’ voice wafted through open doors and screen windows every warm summer night. The M’s held this city in their webbing.
Where has that feeling gone? And, more important, where will this ownership group go to get that feeling back?
The team wins, that elusive feeling comes back. And if you can’t tell that the Mariners are in a better position to win now than they were a year ago, Steve, than there’s no reason why we should care about one more word you write.
Game 151, Mariners at Rangers
Washburn vs Volquez, 5:05 pm.
Edinson Volquez has made six major league starts. See if you can spot which one is not like the others:
5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
3 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
The American League has lit Edinson Volquez up like a Christmas tree. He’s a good prospect who isn’t major league ready, and major league hitters have been punishing him for his lack of command.
Except the Mariners. They faced him a month ago and he shut them out.
The M’s offensive approach sucks. Let’s see if they’ve learned anything.
Review: 2005 Offseason Plan
Every year, I annoint myself ruler of the Mariner Kingdom and start wildly spending money in my imaginary universe, rebuilding the M’s with my kind of players to build a roster that would hopefully not suck. The results have been a mixed bag, from the good suggestions (Vladimir Guerrero!) to the not so hot (Matt Clement!), but it’s always entertaining for me, at least. So, we’ll do a 2006 Offseason Plan after the season ends, but for now, let’s take a look back at my suggestions for last year and see how they look a year later.
Dave’s A Genius!
Kenji Johjima
I suggested signing him a 2 year, $7 million deal, which is just a bit less than he actually got, but the idea was basically the same. We were pretty sure Johjima was going to be a significant upgrade offensively, and he certainly has been. No question, he was one of the best free agent signings of the offseason.
Jamie Moyer
He continued to defy age and gave the Mariners 150 decent innings, then waived his no-trade clause and brought us a couple of pitching prospects with a pulse. For the cost, this was clearly a win for the M’s.
Jacque Jones
He got one more year than I expected, but the $5 million average salary was right on target, and he’s been as good as advertised. He’s hitting .285/.330/.501 while playing a quality outfield. Since the plan called for Jones to start in left field, with Ibanez shifting to DH, he would have been something like a 30-40 run upgrade over Carl Everett. Additionally, he would have given us another CF option when Reed sucked and got hurt, allowing us to skip the whole Bloomquist/Choo/Jones center field debacles. He also would have made Ben Broussard unnecessary. Clearly, the M’s would have been significantly better off had they signed Jacque Jones, and he was a very good fit for the needs of the organization. Unfortunately, we got C-Rex instead.
Wes Helms
I argued that the M’s needed a RH bat who could spell the corner infielders and hit lefties, as well as be a top pinch hitter off the bench, and that Helms would be perfect for that role. Indeed, he has been, but for the surprising Marlins instead of the Mariners. His .306/.364/.520 line has made him one of the best reserves in baseball. His presence would have allowed us to skip the regrettable Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez trade as well. Helms, like Jones, would have been a fantastic low-cost role player, but the M’s eventually had to go out of the organization to acquire a player to fill this role during the season, at the cost of one of their better prospects. Ouch.
Dave’s An Idiot!
A. J. Burnett
We all knew he was a health risk, but I supported throwing significant money (4/46 was my suggested offer, not that far from the 5/55 he signed for) at the best pitcher on the market. He’s pitched well when he’s been healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to justify the contract. He may yet be worth the money, but after one year, this is a thumbs down.
Esteban Loaiza
Loaiza tried to pitch through an injury early in the season and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the first half. After shutting it down and getting his velocity back, he’s been terrific, and he was named AL pitcher of the month in August. That said, the total package hasn’t been worth the contract, and the A’s would probably go another direction if they had it to do over again. It’s certainly a better deal than what they gave to Washburn, but signing Loaiza wouldn’t have made the M’s any better than they have been.
Kevin Brown
He retired, so, who knows. I still think the idea was sound, if not the player who became the role model for the idea.
Overall
If you look at my suggested roster, you certainly don’t see a playoff team. Jones and Helms would have helped the offense significantly more than Carl Everett, for sure, but not enough to compensate for the sucking wound that was Jeremy Reed and the decline of Richie Sexson and Ichiro. The team’s offense would likely have been average at best.
The pitching might have actually been worse, believe it or not. Between the DL stints of Burnett and Loaiza, we’d have ended up giving 150 innings to random Triple-A starters, and Burnett/Loaiza haven’t been any better than Washburn/Meche. Instead of having a long term commitment to a mediocre pitcher, we’d have a long term commitment to a seldom-healthy pitcher.
The organization would probably be in better shape going forward, as they’d have valuable assets like Jones, Choo, and Cabrera instead of Perez and Broussard, but the overall change in performance and cost wouldn’t have been significant.
All this to say, essentially, that while Bill Bavasi made some very questionable transactions last winter, there probably wasn’t much he could have done to make this team win. The Mariners hopes for contending rested squarely on the shoulders of Felix, Beltre, Sexson, and Ichiro, and those four were underwhelming this year. The supporting cast as a whole actually performed well enough to get this team into the playoffs (especially the bullpen, which was downright awesome), but the franchise players weren’t good enough to win with.
The story for 2007 will probably be similar. The M’s are going to have some chances to improve this ballclub, but in the end, this team probably rises and falls with Felix, Beltre, and Ichiro. If they succeed, the Mariners should have a chance to succeed as well.