Newsflash: Pat Gillick still bad at job
The Phillies have signed Ryan Franklin to a 1 year, $2.6 million dollar contract.ÂÂ
Sorry Deanna.ÂÂ
Rafael Soriano signs for 2006
There’s news! Yay! The M’s agreed to a one-year, $450k deal with Rafael Soriano.
We’re all huge Rafael Soriano fans here, and I have high hopes that he’ll decide to start this year and have a huge year that helps the M’s compete for the pennant. That would be sweet.
Also, as Dave points out in the comments below, Jae Seo’s been traded to the Dodgers in a nice little deal.
Thiel quip
I know I’ve poked at Art Thiel before for his occasional reach for metaphors and similies, but this, on the Sonics:
An incredibly wealthy ownership, nevertheless quivering at continued operational losses, must have limited the talent search to the bench of the Los Angeles Clippers, where they found guard Rick Brunson and center Mikki Moore. Each has contributed about as much as the most recent first-round draft choices, Johan Petro and Robert Swift — a four-man whiff unseen locally since the bottom of the Mariners lineup.
I laughed, I winced, I shook my head and grinned.
Also, former M Dave Edler is now the mayor of Yakima. Yes, it’s a slow news day.
The Mariners’ Revenge Song
There are two tragedies to which I would like to alert you. First, as you’ve no doubt noticed, our compadre Peter has been forced by circumstance to adopt a posting schedule best described as “occasional.”
This is a loss for us all, since Peter’s got a terrific analytic mind and an artistic bent. I’d say that even if he didn’t owe me money.*
The second tragedy: To date, the Mariners have not developed a fight song. College football teams are inspired by them, and I can’t help but think the hometown nine would be as well. Put your hand down, Zumsteg, “Who Let The Dogs Out?” does not count.
Drawing on our mutual affection for music, Peter and I have rectified both tragedies. And by “Peter and I,” I mean, “Peter had an idea, and I waited until he stopped posting before stealing it.”
One of us pointed out that an excellent band, The Decemberists, has a song entitled “The Mariner’s Revenge Song.” Given how the M’s have been kicked around over the course of their history — and in the past few years — the other of us reasoned that the tune would lend itself well to parody.
[Before anyone asks: The Decemberists, like Peter, are not “emo.” I am “emo.”]
Let me strongly recommend checking out the song if you have yet to do so. This will enhance the experience considerably. If you enjoy the new lyrics, please remember: timely theft means that I deserve all the credit. Should you dislike it, please: convey all blame to Peter, who has a thicker skin than this shrinking violet. If you really hate it, Jeff Sullivan wrote it. Or Devin. Yeah, Devin.
What follows will be the best baseball fight song ever to involve mandolin, accordion and tuba. May it strike fear in the hearts of our enemies. I hope, in the words of Tom Lehrer, they are half as scared as I.
But then, I’m an emo kid with too many feelings. So it is with a single tear dripping from my left eye that I present to you:
The Mariners’ Revenge Song**
With sincere apologies to The Decemberists, Peter White and all people of good taste everywhere. Original lyrics.
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Jeff and Derek discuss the 2005 offseason
At length, written over the break
Derek:
Let me throw out the spring-training-optimistic view.
DH: Everett
C: Johjima
1b: Sexson
2B: Lopez
SS: Betancourt
3b: Beltre
LF: Ibanez
CF: Reed
RF: Ichiro!
(I figured that given a chance to compete for the starting second baseman job, Bloomquist loses)
Johjima’s a huge upgrade. Everett’s a huge step back at DH, and a defensive downgrade in forcing Ibanez into left. Lopez should hit better than M’s got out of 2B last year, and Betancourt should improve. Beltre should hit somewhere between 2004 and last year, which is good. Sexson’s likely to fall off a bit, though, because that was a really great season. Ibanez will hit better than what we got out of left field. Reed should improve, and Ichiro should bounce back at least somewhat to Ichiro!
That’s a hundred-run improvement pretty easily.
So, to the starters:
SP: Hernandez
SP: Washburn
SP: Moyer
SP: Meche
SP: Pineiro
A full season of King Felix, then we figure Washburn, in a park similarly-suited to him, puts up 2004 again, Moyer doesn’t get any worse, and both Meche and Pineiro show a little improvement — you can figure that’s “fixed” Pineiro or a dead-cat bounce for both of them.
That’s a hundred-run improvement there, tempered a little by the slightly degraded defense.
So we look back at 2005, add a hundred runs scored, subtract 100 runs allowed — that’s a 90-win team! We’re going to the playoffs! Wooooooo!
Jeff:
It feels a little like role-reversal for you to do the positive view and me to do the negative, but here it is. First you got the bull, now you get the horns — the pessimistic scenario.
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K’mon, Kirby
Half of this statement from Kirby Arnold is true:
The Mariners badly need a pitcher to step up and become a pleasant surprise, and there’s no reason [Gil] Meche can’t be that guy.
Well, unfortunately, there is at least one reason. One torn labrum, the gnarliest injury a pitcher faces. As Jonah Keri explained at the BP/USSM book event, virtually no one comes close to their previous form or potential after suffering this malady.
I understand where our Mr. Arnold is coming from, though. In a year where the starting five is — ahem — in flux, we find ourselves looking for heroes and reasons to expect their heroism to emerge. Kirby’s got two reasons for the Meche Renaissance to begin:
Meche has incentive this year that didn’t exist in past seasons.
He’ll be eligible for free agency after 2006, and the opportunity for a huge contract tends to motivate players to work through the aches and pains that might cause them to back off … Meche also says he is tired of losing, especially the streaks of ineffectiveness that have undermined periods of sheer dominance.
There’s your reason for optimism, folks. Gil Meche has not learned to enjoy losing.
I’ll be rooting for Gil as hard as anyone, and harder than most. It’s wonderful when someone triumphs over adversity to achieve greatness, and it’s even better when the result saves your starting rotation.
I’ll be rooting for that to happen. But I won’t be wagering on it.
[And hey, at least Kirby didn’t take the easy way out and write about Felix like everybody else.]
Ichiro to make acting debut. Also, puppies
Well, that last thread was fun. Who else is ready for the new year?
Only two words can right the ship: frivolous and links. First, enjoy my second-favorite link found through Google Ads,* basset hound puppies! Take that, pandas.
Second, your friend and mine, Ichiro, is making his acting debut. He’s going to play a murderer on an episode of a Japanese TV drama.
Among Fuji Television’s Hi-Vision shows are Ooku Special, from the popular drama series focusing on women of the inner palace of the Tokugawa shogunate (Dec. 30, 9 p.m.); Pride Otoko Matsuri 2005 (Dec. 31, 9 p.m.); Count Down TV Year-Crossing Live Special (Dec. 31, 11:50 p.m.) and the three-night Furuhata Ninzaburo Final (Jan. 3-5, 9 p.m.).
In the second night’s episode of Furuhata, major league baseball player Ichiro Suzuki, who has described himself as a big fan of the series, plays himself in a cameo role written for him–as a murderer. In the show, he confronts a formidable detective played by Masakazu Tamura.
The role isn’t that much of a stretch. He’s been killing American League pitchers for years.
* My favorite Google Ads link? Ben Broussard, Musician.
** Thanks to Dustin for the Ichiro link.
Papelbon and Lester
Finnigan reports in the Times this morning that the Mariners have shifted their attention from Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement to one of Boston’s two top pitching prospects, Jon Lester or Jonathan Papelbon, as the swag they’re hoping to extract in exchange for Jeremy Reed.
To be honest, I still wouldn’t make the trade. The annointing of Papelbon and Lester as elite young pitchers is quite premature. Let’s take a look at them objectively, shall we? We’ll start with Papelbon, whose solid performance out of the bullpen for the Red Sox down the stretch has led to a significant amount of hype.
In 2003 he was a 4th round pick by the Red Sox from Mississippi State University, where he had spent his entire college career as a reliever. The Sox used his short season debut to stretch him out and convert him into a starting pitcher. He spent 2004 in Sarasota of the Florida State League, the most pitcher friendly league in professional baseball, and had few problems, ranking 2nd in the league in strikeouts and ERA. After the season, Baseball America ranked him as the 14th best prospect (8th among pitchers) in the FSL. This year, he split the season between Double-A and Triple-A and showed significantly improved command, though his strikeout rate fell as a result. The Sox moved him back to the bullpen to help with their stretch drive, and he pitched well and showed that he’s ready for a job in a major league bullpen right now. BA ranked him as the 7th best prospect in the Eastern League after the season.
His fastball reportedly sits at 90-94, and his second best pitch is either a split finger or a slider, depending on who you talk to. His change-up and curveball are both show-me pitches, so at this point, everything he throws is hard. There’s not a real offspeed pitch to talk about. He’s also shown himself to be a flyball pitcher, both in the majors and in the minors.
Papelbon is essentially the Red Sox version of Clint Nageotte. Power pitcher without a good offspeed pitch, low to mid 90s fastball, lots of scouts prefer as a reliever. Papelbon has slightly better command, but Nageotte showed some groundball dominance this year, so those can essentially cancel each other out. Would you trade Jeremy Reed for another Clint Nageotte?
Moving on to Jon Lester, who grew up in Puyallup and is one of the best local prep products the area has produced. Lester was a 2nd round pick by the Red Sox in the 2002 draft, though they paid him well over slot money to sign. He spent 2003 in the South Atlantic League at 19, and while he held his own, he showed that he had significant work to do. In 2004, he moved up to Sarasota and pitched significantly better, holding his walk rate steady but seeing his strikeouts go up by 50 percent. Command was still an issue, but he had the dominance to overcome the walks. This year, at age 21, he was moved to Double-A Portland and had his best year as a pro. He continued to trim his walk rate and raise his strikeouts despite pitching against advanced competition. After the season, he was ranked by BA as the 4th best prospect in the Eastern League.
Lester throws 90-93 from the left side and uses a cut fasball at times, and while he throws a change and a curve, neither one are major league pitches right now. He’s essentially beating people with his fastball. His command is still a bit of a question mark, and he missed time with shoulder soreness in June.
Lester and Papelbon are good pitching prospects. But that’s what they are. I don’t subscribe to the “There’s No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect” mantra that lame analysts have adopted to explain away their ignorance, but there is a huge amount of attrition involved with young arms. Before the season, BA ranked Papelbon as the #91 prospect in baseball, and Lester was not included in the top 100. Clint Nageotte was #73 on the same list.
Things have changed in the past 12 months, and both Lester and Papelbon will rank well on the 2006 list, I’m sure. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that these guys are rare elite arms. They’re solid, good pitching prospects. But these guys aren’t special. Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester. There’s a lot of 90-94 MPH arms with developing secondary pitches and mediocre command running around out there.
When you trade a hitter for a pitcher, you’re taking on a lot of risk. It can be worth it, if the upside or need of the team dictates that the pitcher is worth it. But Papelbon and Lester aren’t significantly better than the arms the M’s have done a nice job collecting over the past few months. With Nageotte hopefully healthy, and Bazardo, Foppert, and Carvajal being added in the past 6 months, the M’s have a fairly decent crop of upper level pitching prospects.
They don’t need to trade a major league everyday player at a position they have little depth for another surplus arm. The best thing Bill Bavasi has done as a GM is build a stockpile of arms in the upper minors, and he’s done it without paying a high price for any of them. The M’s don’t need to divert from this strategy.
Just say no to trading Reed to Boston.
Trades finalized
Millwood to the Rangers is official. Look forward the marquee matchup of Washburn v Millwood later this year. It’ll be a barn-burner. Or a nose-biter, depending.
Troy Glaus and prospect infielder Sergio Santos go to the Blue Jays for 2B-B Orlando Hudson, RHP Miguel Batista (giving the Blue Jays 29 1b/3b/DH types and making the Diamondbacks a nice longshot bet for the World Series at 200-1). The Blue Jays according to reports have given Glaus an extra player option year at $11.5m (!) and the Diamondbacks will pick up his additional tax burden.
The hot news, though, is the Mark Prior rumor: in a two, three, or even four-team deal, the Orioles dump Tejeda and someone gets Mark Prior. Wow. Given the past, we should fear that somehow Billy Beane will get himself involved in trade talks and wind up with Prior, giving up only valuable spare parts and shiny prospects of no consequence.
Pick the Pitcher
Let’s play Pick The Pitcher, free agent starter addition. We’ll do it Nick Bakay style.
Innings
Pitcher A: 210
Pitcher B: 177
Advantage: Pitcher A
Walk Rate
Pitcher A: 2.1 BB/G
Pitcher B: 2.6 BB/G
Advantage: Pitcher A
Strikeout Rate
Pitcher A: 4.0 K/G
Pitcher B: 4.9 K/G
Advantage: Pitcher B
Groundball/Flyball Rate
Pitcher A: 1.68 G/F
Pitcher B: 0.99 G/F
Advantage: Pitcher A
Contract
Pitcher A: 1 year, $4 million
Pitcher B: 4 years, $37.5 million
Advantage: Pitcher A
Ladies and Gentleman, Pitcher A, Jason Johnson, who signed a 1 year, $4 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.
Pitcher B, obviously, is Jarrod Washburn, he of the big offseason move albatross contract.
Seriously, the next time someone tells you that Jarrod Washburn’s market value was 4 years and $37.5 million, ask them why Jason Johnson signed for 25 percent of the years and 42 percent of the annual salary.
Johnson has his own problems. The strikeout rate is terrible. His home/road splits are terrible. But the only real difference between his 2005 and Jarrod Washburn’s 2005 season was their performance with runners in scoring position. Washburn stranded 82 percent of the runners he put on base, while Johnson stranded just 67 percent of his runners. And so Washburn’s ERA was a point and a half lower, even though he didn’t pitch significantly better.
Behold the power of 3.20, baby.