The 2006 Free Agent Pitching Buffet
Remember the school cafeteria’s mystery meat, the mysterious mishmash of flesh that might have once been a cow, a pig, or some combination thereof? That’s your starting rotation next year. It ain’t quite a box of chocolates, but you sure don’t know what you’re gonna get.
Especially with the news about Jorge Campillo, the 2006 Mariners have a rotation filled with question marks dressed as baseball players.
Will Jamie Moyer, Ryan Franklin or Gil Meche be back? Does Joel Pineiro have to be? What about Bobby Madritsch’s shoulder? What about the minor league arms? It seems like the only sure thing (knock wood) is less than half Moyer’s age and has two more major league starts than Mordecai Brown had fingers on his pitching hand.
The key to next season how that rotation fills out. Though it’s unspeakably early, fans are understandably concerned about this, so let’s fire up the conversation with a preview of four available pitchers I’d like to see the Mariners pursue.
In keeping with the “mystery meat” theme, each player is likened to an item of ballpark food.
A.J. Burnett: Skilled and 28 years old, Burnett’s in the prime of his career. He misses bats, striking out batters at a rate higher than any Mariner save the boy king. Burnett did miss significant time with Tommy John surgery, which points to injury risks. But a cynic might say that the medical history just shows he’d feel at home as a Mariner.
In another year, Burnett would be a good, solid B-plus, a talented pitcher with some questions, a notch below the slam-dunk talent available above him. This year he’s the flagship of the free agent class. That may well drive his price beyond reasonable.
Rating: Fat Tire beer. Of undeniable quality, Fat Tire is nonetheless one of the most overpriced items at the ballyard. There might not be a more delicious item available, but at this cost, even the manageable risk that some clown might kick over your brew and not offer to buy another seems disconcerting. A premium that you’ll probably have to pay dearly for.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: I’ve long been a fervent advocate of pursuing the Japanese ace, but recently, my ardor has cooled. Not based on the man’s talent, you understand — it’s just that practically every Japanese manager has two subscriptions to Lou Piniella’s magazine “Throw Some More Pitches, Kid.” Recently, we’re hearing whispers that Matsuzaka’s velocity is down and he’s complaining of shoulder soreness. This visits Doyle-level sadness upon my psyche: it’s like watching a fine work of art deteriorate after being left out in the rain. [For some background, scope Derek‘s take and Will Carroll’s.]
If the rumors are baseless and he’s still the dominating pitcher he’s been, there’s little doubt in my mind that Matsuzaka is at least A.J. Burnett’s equal. But the chain of dominoes that starts with 200+ pitch outings rarely falls in a safe place.
Rating: Ichiroll. Like an Ichiroll, Matsuzaka might be a delicious and underexplored sensation. But fish spoils. Do you really want to bet an afternoon that you won’t be lolling and drooling after getting a hunk of fish that has gone bad from inattention or abuse? In other words, high risk, high reward — emphasis on risk.
Kevin Millwood: Millwood is older than Burnett and a step down. But though Millwood commanded $7 million this year, what he’ll get in the offseason is likely to be a bargain (in terms of dollars and years) than what the mighty Marlin will draw.
A career flyball pitcher (check out those ratios), Millwood also appears to be well-suited for Safeco. Think of Ryan Franklin, with talent and without the drug suspension.
Rating: Garlic fries. A totally solid, always defensible choice. Consistent quality at a price that won’t break the bank (well, for Safeco food). Won’t satisfy you all by itself, but won’t bankrupt you or risk Puchy Delgado’s Revenge either. Upshot: the safe choice.
Esteban Loaiza: Dominating 2003 Esteban isn’t coming back, but effective 2006 Esteban is a real possibility. Acquired on the cheap by the Nationals, Loaiza is hauling in less than $3 million this year — just a touch more than Gil “Five Innings, Four Runs” Meche. And he’s another flyball-heavy hurler, meaning Safeco might well maximize his skills.
Rating: Peanuts from outside the ballpark. Maybe those cheesy exhortations from the vendors are off-putting, but they’re true. You’ll spend less on those than you will on comparable products, and likely be just as satisfied.
Other names out there include Matt Morris, Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd and Kenny Rogers. None of these interest me as much as the above four.
Recommendations as of today: Pursue Burnett, wary of overpaying. Pursue Millwood and Loaiza. Investigate Matsuzaka, but be extremely wary — think Sexson wary — about committing to too many years.
Be very happy with two of the above. Ignore the rest. After all, Beer and sushi go well together. Garlic fries and peanuts are solid additions to most any meal. But you most likely wouldn’t want to throw all four into the stomach at the same time.
And at Safeco, you couldn’t afford to do that anyway.
Game 129, White Sox at Mariners
Felix’s mentor (shudder) goes against Jamie Moyer.
Thrill as Carl Everett bats left-handed against Moyer, muttering to himself about dinosaurs! Shudder as Greg Dobbs once again occupies the Designated Misser slot! Wait in anticipation for the next King Fleix start!
Game 127, White Sox at Mariners
Its Game Five of the Felix Hernandez Experience. We’re running out of superlatives. I’ve been told that if I put up another Felix worship post, I’m going to have my Stuffy Objective Analyst card revoked. If you’re not sure what we think about Felix, you can read this, this, this, or even this. And this too. You could say we’re obsessed. You’d be right.
All hail the King. Long live the King.
Week #22 in Review
Happy Felix Day!
(We here at USS Mariner choose to look at rosy side of life when we can.)
Vital Signs
Wins: 54. Losses: 72. Games out of first place: 18.5.
The Mariners drop another game in the standings. Again. The Angels widen their AL West lead to 2.5 games. Third place is still a gaping 5 games away. They are 3.4 games below their projected wins according to third-order wins.
Runs Scored: 556 (12th in the American League, tied with Minnesota). Batting average: .256 (last). On-base percentage: .315 (last). Slugging percentage: .397 (13th, thank you, Kansas City). Home runs: 110 (13th, again, thank you, Kansas City). Bases on balls: 352 (9th). EqA: .250 (11th).
Runs allowed: 595 (8th). Staff ERA: 4.55 (10th). DIPS ERA: 4.70 (13th). Strikeouts: 682 (last). Bases on balls: 403 (10th). Home runs allowed: 140 (11th). Starters ERA: 5.12 (11th). Relievers ERA: 3.47 (5th). Defensive efficiency: 70.0% (7th).
The Mariners spoiled a perfect opportunity to gain ground on the slumping Rangers and the ever elusive third place in the division. They dropped 2 of 3 to the Twins and then 2 of 3 from those pesky slugging Texans. I say “slugging” – the Mariners actually outslugged their opponents 9 home runs to 7. Despite this muscle-fest by the M’s, they were still out-scored 34-28. How does this happen, one asks? That’s the difference 18 singles in a week makes. There’s more than one way to get on-base. They drew the same amount of walks as the Twins and Rangers, 19.
Heroes
For the month of August, Adrian Beltre leads the team in home runs (6), doubles (8) and RBI (23). He is the only starter with an OPS above .800, and it happens to currently rest at a healthy .933. This week, Beltre went 7-for-24 (.292/.320/.583) with 4 doubles and a home run. On Tuesday, Beltre doubled to lead off the seventh inning, starting a 3-run Seattle rally that brought the Mariners within one run. In the 8th, he again doubled, driving in Raul Ibanez and, again, the Mariners were within a run. But with Beltre standing at second, representing the go-ahead run with no outs, the Mariners failed to score again and lost 6-4.
On Thursday, 31-year-old rookie Jeff Harris limited the Rangers to just 4 hits and 2 walks in 7 scoreless innings. He also struck out 2.
Read more
Off the Wall: Felix’s ROY Chances
Word is that the Mariners have a highly regarded rookie pitcher who shares a first name with a once-famous cat.
Now, I’m just a simple man who enjoys working with hands, so I don’t know much about this “Felix” character. I don’t even know much about cats. Except that they are supposed to like sardines. I like sardines.
Apparently, someone else does know about Felix, someone who writes for something called the “Post-Intelligencer,” and whose name is “Derek.”
One time, I went to the sea lion caves. I fed the seals sardines. The sardines were wrapped in a newspaper. I don’t know if it was the Post-Intelligencer or not.
In this article, Derek covers Felix’s chances to win something called the “Rookie of the Year Award,” which are higher than you might think at first.
This linked article might not a novel, but it is a well-told story. I like my well-told stories with numbers, hold the sardines.
Sasaki’s last game
The Japan Times has an interesting write-up on Kazuhiro Sasaki’s last game in pro baseball, which also includes interesting details about the tradition of the “retirement game” in Japan — and how Kazu’s appearance flouted certain elements on that tradition. It’s a few weeks old, so apologies if you’ve seen it.
An odd end to an odd, if at times outstanding, run.
Game 126, Mariners at Rangers
Today’s question is not “How much will Clint Nageotte sweat?” but “Can Jeff Harris repeat his solid previous performance?” as the minor league vet gets the start. He is opposed by Chris Benoit’s younger brother, Joaquin.
Your lineup:
1 Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2 Willie Bloomquist, 2B
3 Raul Ibanez, LF
4 Richie Sexson, 1B
5 Adrian Beltre, 3B
6 Greg Dobbs, DH
7 Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
8 Jeremy Reed, CF
9 Miguel Ojeda, C
Greg Dobbs again. I almost wish we’d kept Spiezio.
Projecting Felix In 2006
I’ve done a significant number of posts breaking down Felix Hernandez’s statistical performance through his first four starts. What I haven’t done, however, is project what I expect from King Felix going forward. Until now. I’ve been working on a pitcher-projection-system behind the scenes, and I’m finally to the point where I trust the data enough to publish it.
Now, keep in mind, pitchers are weird beasts. No projection system in the world would have forecasted Jamie Moyer’s late career development. Statistical projections are a tool that can be useful, but when combined with pitchers, we need to know that they are still a blunt tool, and especially with a kid who won’t turn 20 until next April, absolutely anything is within the realm of possibility. However, we can use past performance to give us a reasonable window of what to expect. That’s what I believe this projection for Felix provides; an array of reasonable performances for the King in 2006, any of which could occur.
As for the nuts and bolts of the system, I’m going to lean towards brevity. It’s nothing radically different than what others have done before me, I’m sure. Ron Shandler’s projections are based on most of the same assumptions, and I’m actually expecting his postseason projection for Felix to be similar to this one. So why create my own? Well, two basic reasons: I’m impatient and don’t like waiting for someone else to tell me what I want to know, and I don’t have to pay myself for this information. I’m not claiming this system is better than what Shandler or Prospectus or whoever else puts out there. I’m simply claiming as far as accuracy, it’s pretty darn close, and the fact that its available now for no cost makes it a winner in my book.
So, anyways, here’s the basic gist of the system. In any given plate appearance, there are five potential scenarios, one of which will occur each time: a walk/hit by pitch, a strikeout, a ground ball, a fly ball, and a line drive. Of these five outcomes, we know that a pitcher has significant control over the first four, and though the research is still new, it appears that pitchers can exert some control over the amount of line drives they allow as well, though it is less than their control over the other four scenarios. As most people who have read the blog for quite a while know, we believe the current evidence shows that, with some exceptions, most pitchers do not have a repeatable skill that allows them to control the outcome once a player makes contact with the ball. In other words, a pitcher can induce the opponent into hitting a groundball, but he can’t consistently compel the batter to hit a groundout.
So, what I decided to do was create a system that converts each batter faced into a percentage of likely outcomes, much like the last chart I used to break down Felix. We know Felix has significant control over his walk, strikeout, and groundball/flyball rates, so those are what we’re projecting, and the rest of the data populates itself when we put in the league average results based on hit types. Keep in mind, however, these numbers are context neutral, not dependant on the park he plays in or the teammates around him. Pitching in front of the M’s defense and in Safeco should only serve to make his raw numbers even more impressive.
Anyways, that’s a basic overview. For most people, what you really care about are the results, right? Well then, here you go.
Median Projection: The Middle Of the Road Safe Pick
213 innings pitched
128 singles allowed
38 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
16 home runs allowed
54 walks
207 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 2.20
Opponents BA: .244
Opponents OBP: .290
Opponents SLG: .324
Component ERA: 2.86
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.99
2005 Performance Comparison: A.J. Burnett
Optimists Projection: The Best We Should Plan For
244 innings pitched (and yes, I realize the team will never let him near that number)
143 singles allowed
42 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
14 home runs allowed
40 walks
270 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 3.00
Opponents BA: .237
Opponents OBP: .268
Opponents SLG: .303
Component ERA: 2.38
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.21 (!)
2005 Performance Comparison: No one was this good in 2005. Not even Clemens.
Pessimists Projection: What To Expect If He Struggles
178 innings pitched
116 singles allowed
35 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
11 home runs allowed
80 walks
160 strikeouts
GB/FB Rate: 1.67
Opponents BA: .257
Opponents OBP: .331
Opponents SLG: .328
Component ERA: 3.39
Fielding Independent ERA: 3.56
2005 Performance Comparison: Carlos Zambrano
Based on Felix’s professional career to date, the pessimistic projection for him next year would make him something like the 5th or 6th best starting pitcher in the American League. The optimistic projection grades him out as better than what Clemens is doing in Houston this year (which, to me, is hard to believe), and would be one of the most remarkable pitching seasons we’ve seen in the history of the game.
I feel the best about the median projection, and that’s along the lines of what I’m expecting next year. And, realistically, if he puts up his median projection next year, he’s going to finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting. People talk about the need to acquire a #1 starter in the offseason. I disagree. We have one.
Worst news of the season
Hargrove is concerned about protecting Felix. His idea of what that entails, though… from the PI:
“At this point, we’re probably looking at a 170 (cumulative) innings,” Hargrove said. “We’re still going to watch his pitch count; we won’t want him to go over 120, 125 pitches. But no matter what, he’s not going to reach the (maximum) innings.”
120, 125 pitches an outing for a 19-year old running up on his inning limit is crazy. If he hits 120 at any point this season Hargrove should be fired for negligence before pitch 121.
Caple on Steroids
No, Jim Caple isn’t on steroids. At least, not as far as I know, although he was swinging those heavy replica bats with authority at the feed.
He does, though, have some insights on the issue that you might like to read.