Resisting the feud
People sometimes ask me why I’m such a big Alan Schwarz fan, and I don’t always articulate it very well. I just really enjoy his writing. He’s intelligent, thoughtful, insightful, and has an understanding of the game, but lacks the annoying tone of most of the other analysts who use statistics to explain their place in the game. He comes across as someone trying to educate, not lecture, and his latest piece at Baseball America is further proof of this. It’s a roundtable of two long time scouts and two of the more prominant names in the statistical community with the intention of bringing the two sides together. It’s worth reading.
Unfortunately, it didn’t work. I had a nice little blurb written here that started with “no disrespect to the four guys involved”, but I deleted it and am just going to say what I feel.
Voros McCracken comes across as a total jerk. Gary Hughes doesn’t fare much better. Eddie Bane and Gary Huckabay apparently handled themselves well, but the sniping between Hughes and McCracken was downright petty. Both Hughes and McCracken spent almost no time explaining their strength and what they can bring to the table, but instead focused on letting us know why the other side is flawed. The reality is that both sides are flawed, though in different ways, and those who are willing to accept that fact and use the complementary aspects of scouting and statistics are those who are going to move ahead in understanding the game. Eddie Bane is one of those guys. So is Chris Antonetti. There are thoughtful, reasonable, well spoken guys on both sides of the fence. Unfortunately, Voros McCracken and Gary Hughes are not part of that group.
Honestly, the statistical community needs new leadership. Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Voros McCracken, Mitchel Lichtman, all intelligent guys. And all of them need to take a giant step back, eat their pride, stop focusing on the flaws of the scouting community, and take a class on personal relations. As much as I agree with a lot of the theories and insights that performance analysis has brought to the game, I’m too often ashamed to be associated with the current voices of the statistical analysis community.
What started as an article to bring the two sides together reads like a rollcall of the issues that keep the two sides apart. We need to stop trying to change the other side, and look in the mirror. Maybe the scouts don’t think we’re jerks because they’re defending their jobs. Perhaps, just maybe, you really are acting like a jerk. Joe, Rob, Voros, something to think about…
Bonuses and taxation
You may notice from the handy M’s contract chart that the team paid a ton of money to Beltre and Sexson this year that more or less with their 2005 salaries equals what they’re paid in other years. Why do this, you ask? The answer conveniently is clearly explained in an ESPN article today:
For the rest of the American public, signing bonuses count as wages earned, with both the employer and employee having to pay taxes under FICA (the Federal Insurance Contribution Act). But in 1958, baseball players — the exclusion for other athletes later became understood — were exempt from FICA taxes on their signing bonuses because it was determined that no service was technically rendered for the player’s bonus.
But in November, the U.S. Treasury Department modified the loophole so that FICA taxes had to be paid on signing bonuses signed after Jan. 11.
The article’s about how different taxation schemes affect the actual value of contracts. It’s wrong in one important respect: players in all states pay income taxes when they play in states with income taxes, and in many states, they pay double tax from their state of residence. Sammy Sosa attempted to sue Illinois over this, but Illinois cowardly weaseled out of the suit (which was entirely reasonable: Sosa said “how come you’re taxing me on income I made in another state and was taxed for there?” and Illinois’ response was “Uhhhhhhhh… you’ll have to take that up with that other state.”)
So there’s kind of a… an automatic tax burden for every player that can be made substantially worse if they live in the wrong state, or if they play for a team in a state with particularly aggressive residency requirements (81 days a year? taxable!).
This is one oft-overlooked advantage that Washington (and Texas, and others), with our regressive sales taxes, have in attracting free agents: there’s no additional tax burden on free agents.
Mariner contract status sheet
You’ll notice a new link in the features, the Mariner contract sheet which I hope everyone finds helpful. Like the Big Board, as details emerge, we’re going to continue to refine this, so… check it out.
Odalis Perez to Dodgers
I know everyone was on the Perez bandwagon, and I expect a lot of handwringing from people upset that we didn’t get him. However, 3 years, $24 million isn’t the bargain folks were hoping for, and I’m still concerned about Perez’s mechanics and durability. I wouldn’t have matched this offer either, and with LA going to $24 million, it’s likely it would have taken the M’s 3/$27 million to get him signed. They weren’t willing to go that high on Freddy Garcia, wisely I believe, and Garcia is a better pitcher.
It’s too much for Perez for this organization. If we were one arm away from contending, it’s a risk worth considering, but not for a team that still has a lot of question marks. They can find a suitable pitcher without throwing that much money at him.
M’s sign Pokey Reese
Thanks to DG in the comments for first noting this, and we get confirmation from Larry LaRue this morning. The deal is for 1 year and about $1.9 million. The team sold Jolbert Cabrera to Japan to make room on the roster and to clear budget space.
This is a terrific move. I’ve been stumping to sign Pokey for two years now. Yes, he’s a miserable hitter and the team can expect to have to pinch hit for him in nearly any situation where a hit is needed. But he’s also a treemendous defensive infielder, one of the best in the game, and his glove is easily worth the money the team is giving him. He’s also a high percentage baserunner, and could be a big weapon stealing bases as a pinch-runner on days he doesn’t start.
This also makes it nearly guaranteed that Jose Lopez will begin 2005 in Triple-A Tacoma, which I’ve been advocating all along. Lopez simply isn’t ready to play everyday in the major leagues right now, and it will be better for him and the Mariners to have him improving in Tacoma than struggling in Seattle.
The fact that the M’s basically swapped out Jolbert Cabrera for Pokey Reese makes this a big improvement. Another move by the M’s that we’ll clap our hands for. Well done, guys.
Cut comments, #1, Mickey Lopez
In the interest of getting this year’s chapter in without it looking like a new translation of the Iliad, I cut a lot of player comments from my submitted Prospectus M’s chapters. I’ve been thinking of posting a couple of them here, since as unsubmitted material for players who won’t go into the book, they’re copyright me and don’t compete with the book in any way. I won’t put stat lines or anything with them, since that’s BP IP.
Mickey Lopez 2B Bats: B Throws: R Born: 17-Nov-1973 Age: 31
Mickey Lopez got to the major leagues after many, many years of being a minor league mercenary of some usefulness, and so the team tried to sneak him enough at-bats for him to get a hit. He almost didn’t make it: he got beaned, he got walked… and on October 3rd, he got his first, and possibly last, major league hit, on an infield single. It’s always nice to see good things happen to those who appreciate them. Lopez doesn’t have a bright future, but his face sure lit up that day.
Randy to the Yankees…mmmaybe
So yeah, the Yankees and Diamondbacks, at it again. I don’t have anything to say about whether or not it’s a good eadl until something actually happens, but… what I thought was interesting today, reading these stories, was the weird sniping going on. Yankees president Randy Levine, quoted in the MLB.com story:
“It was disappointing,” Levine said of the three-team deal which fell through. “We thought we had an agreement, and the Dodgers reneged after they called and asked to get involved. That’s life. It moves on.”
Now, I understand that a huge amount of raw bullflop is shoveled out by front offices on all transactions. LA made a seven-year offer on Beltre, the M’s weren’t trying to trade Mike Cameron that one time, the reason for this move was x, or y, or… whatever. In many cases, as fans, we have to throw our hands up and say “There is no way, without tape recordings of phone conversations, that I’ll ever know the truth about this.”
I accept that. I also know that a huge part of the baseball rumor mill is fueled by front offices, some of which like to float rumors that another team’s shopping player x so they’ll have some pretense to call that team and say “so, what would you want for player x?” And also that many baseball rumors are entirely the creation of someone, from someone in the front office with an agenda to a reporter with a deadline and no story written.
This is unusual because it’s a nasty little shot at the Dodgers. It’s petty. Baseball’s a small, small industry: there aren’t many major league teams, and it’s in everyone’s best interests to have good relations with everyone else. Personalities get in the way, of course, and you see some teams never deal with each other, but that’s normal, and even then it’s rare for someone to be called out like this.
It means either — New York’s really so angry about LA pulling out of the deal that they’re willing to talk about it in public, or New York’s even more petty of an organization than their enemies think.
In the wake of the first three-way deal falling through, it was weird to see how crazy and scattered the fallout was, with different stories about DePodesta losing his nerve to LA nixing the deal as a favor to Vazquez. And now, there’s still open ill will towards LA over it… it’s strange.
Astros, Beltran, FA roundup
The Astros are reportedly offering a 7th year to Beltran, but it’s an option ($14m or $5m buyout), for a guaranteed 5/$70m + a year. If Beltran takes an offer in the neighborhood of this, it’ll almost certainly going to be a better value for the lucky club that gets him than Sexson’s over the life of a five-year deal.
Also, Milton, bleah, to the Reds, for a huge chunk of money. I don’t understand either.
Did we mention Alou? Because that’s a pretty crazy deal, especially if they’re really going to play him in center. [update: why did I type that? what was I thinking?]
Interleague play doesn’t boost attendance
You might want to check out “Interleague Play” a subscriber article o’er at Baseball Prospectus by Jeff Hildebrand. Hildebrand looks at the interleague games and finds that the attendance boost is pretty small, with the apparant boost due to the fact that interleague matchups are all summer games, and disproportionately weekend games. Check it out if you’re a subscriber.
Merry Christmas
Just wanted to take a minute to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. Enjoy the holidays with friends and family. Derek, Jason, and I all wish you the best.