Comparing Mariner Fastball Speeds: April 2012 versus (mostly) April 2011
The loss of a few ticks on Felix Hernandez’s fastball’s the talk of the town these days, and a similar drop landed George Sherrill on the disabled list. What about the rest of the staff – is everyone similarly affected? Who’s thrown harder?
I’ll be honest: I don’t have much of a point here; I don’t know what question I want to attempt to answer with the following data. In part, I wanted to get this out there to refer to later; Felix may decide to throw 94 again in May, and we’ll all look back at this in laugh. Maybe Hector Noesi will throw as hard as he was reported to have thrown in the Dominican (or in his very first Cactus League start). Maybe Kevin Millwood’s velocity will fade back to 2010 levels. This is a starting point. (To be fair, I was also inspired by a post by the great Jeff Zimmerman at Royals Review).
| Pitcher | Velo 2011 | Velo 2012 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Sherrill | 89.7 | 86.6 | -3.1 |
| Felix Hernandez | 94.1 | 91.2 | -2.9 |
| Brandon League | 96.6 | 95.6 | -1 |
| Charlie Furbush | 91.6 | 91 | -0.6 |
| Hector Noesi | 93.5 | 93 | -0.5 |
| Blake Beavan | 91.5 | 91.2 | -0.3 |
| Jason Vargas | 88.1 | 88.1 | 0 |
| Steve Delabar | 94.8 | 94.8 | 0 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen | 95.6 | 95.7 | 0.1 |
| Kevin Millwood | 89.8 | 90.5 | 0.7 |
This table includes each pitcher’s average fastball velocity thus far in April compared to their fastball velocity in April of 2011. Now, many of these guys didn’t pitch in April of ’11, so I just took the first month they appeared. That’s not a great comparison, as it means Steve Delabar’s April of ’12 is being compared to his September of ’11. Charlie Furbush and Hector Noesi didn’t appear until May of 2011, Blake Beavan until July, and Kevin Millwood didn’t make the Rockies until August last year. Like I said – not ideal, but it’s what we’ve got and we’ll console ourselves with the fact that velocity stabilizes fairly quickly.
The other issue which I’ll get to below is pitch mix. I’ve used each pitcher’s most common fastball for the table; if someone throws a four-seamer but occasionally mixes in a cutter, I’ve reported the four-seamer. If they mix a four- and two-seamer, I’ve used whichever they throw most. But the FB a pitcher uses most isn’t necessarily the same across seasons. The data all come from Brooksbaseball, so the pitch IDs are done manually, not by the pitch fx algorithm. This is important in the case of Felix or even Furbush where the algorithm has had some difficulty distinguishing fastballs from change-ups.
George Sherrill tops the list as the guy with the biggest velocity drop, and it appears that the cause is a physical one. This isn’t something that came on this spring, however. In fact, it appears that Sherrill’s big velocity drop occurred mid way through 2011; his FB velocity in April of 2011 was fine (about 90), but dropped below 88MPH by June and never recovered. It dropped again at some point, as his average FB from his single April appearance was under 87, but the larger change occurred some time last May. It’ll be interesting to see if rest/physical therapy’s able to get him back to 90, or if he’s going to have to learn to live in the 87.5-88.5 range.
Thus far, Felix hasn’t suffered too much from his lack of velocity – his K rate’s not terribly different from last year’s rate, and the slight drop’s been accompanied by fewer walks, too. Obviously, it’s much too early to say a whole lot – he’s only faced one (awful) team, but he’s faced them three times. I’d rather face the A’s three times than just about anyone else in baseball, but three games against the same team – even the A’s – in a couple of weeks is difficult for a pitcher. If you’re wondering if it takes Felix a few months to hit his top velocity, well, no, it hasn’t in previous years. April was his best month of 2011 for FB velocity, and was one of his best months in 2009 and 2010. As many have pointed out, however, he may struggle in hitters counts in crucial situations if he’s not able to hit 95 on occasion. Justin Verlander’s velocity’s been fairly modest thus far compared to previous years, but he’s been able to add a few MPH in big at-bats. If Felix is able to do that, he should be fine.
Brandon League appears to be someone who needs time to reach his peak velocity. As such, I’m not too worried about his apparent velocity drop thus far. It’s exactly where he was in April of 2010, and he was hitting 97+ later in the summer. He started a bit higher last year, but got to the same peak around the same time. Hopefully, this year’s no different. It’s not like he’s struggled thus far anyway.
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Greg Halman, 1987-2011
Terrible news to wake up to this morning – Greg Halman was murdered last night. Even with my own bout with mortality, this isn’t the kind of thing I know how to write about. A 24-year-old killed, and apparently by his own brother? Just horrible.
My thoughts and prayers are with the Halman family.
2011 Fans Scouting Report
This blog has been exhorting you all to fill out Tango’s Fans’ Scouting Report since 2006, and we’re not going to stop now. Seriously: if you’ve watched a decent number of Mariner games either in person or on TV, please go here and rate the M’s defensively. The more people who fill it out, the more useful the data. The FSR data ends up, as data is wont to do, at Fangraphs, where it sits alongside UZR, DRS, etc. in the fielding section. If you’ve ever complained about the limitations of UZR to a friend, if you’ve ever laughed at the limitations of fielding percentage to a coworker, if you’ve ever questioned batted ball data, you MUST fill out the scouting report. Tango and Dave will know if you don’t, and they will shake their heads disapprovingly in your direction.
Tango’s metric analyzes each defender by a series of specific skills – this is both the greatest strength of the metric, and the greatest challenge for all of us who fill out the survey. (The second biggest challenge? Keeping a player’s position from subconsciously altering your rankings). But there’s no right or wrong answer, so take 10 minutes, give it some thought, and send in your ballot. Thanks!
Tonight: The 2011 AAA All-Star Game from Salt Lake City
If you had plans this evening, cancel them. If you’re going to be traveling at any point between 6pm-9pm PDT, find a bar with MLB Network and settle in. Tonight’s the AAA All-Star game, pitting the Pacific Coast League’s brightest stars who haven’t been promoted yet against the International League’s for bragging rights and so much more: you see, this one counts too. Like the MLB All-Star game, the winner receives home field advantage for the AAA National Championship. But unlike MLB who drags out their World Series over four-to-seven games, AAA boils it all down to a single championship game. Winning the AAA All-star game allows the team from the winning league to wear their home uniforms in the neutral stadium the game is played in.
You can’t measure that with statistics, but you can see it in the leave-it-all-on-the-field mentality of the player’s in tonight’s match-up. Watch Bryan LaHair (a vet of the 2009 contest) run the bases and tell me this is an exhibition game. Watch Russ Canzler and tell me he isn’t the best IL 3B you’ve never heard of.
Josh Lueke’s is the Mariners/Rainiers sole representative, but he knows all too well how much home field advantage means in a neutral site game. Jason Kipnis does too; he played on the winning side last year, and while no one can prove that the moderately larger ‘home’ clubhouse proved decisive in Columbus’ win, no one can prove it wasn’t.
That last night’s appetizer was the lowest-rated AS Game in history doesn’t surprise me; it’s pretty tough to compete with line-ups like these. Besides, interleague play has sapped one of the only reasons to tune in to the MLB AS Game: to see matchups between players who never got to face each other. But AAA doesn’t have interleague play, so if you ever dreamed of seeing Yonder Alonso or Dayan Viciedo take on Willie Eyre or Dana freaking Eveland, then you had to play it out in your mind. Tonight, our most mundane dreams are made real.
Game time is 6pm, and it’s on MLB Network, and AM 850 on your radio dial (if you’re in the south puget sound, that is). Follow along on the web here, and you’ll be able to get video if you’re an MiLB.tv subscriber or pick up the audio on your computer. Even better, Mike Curto promises to tweet his impressions of the clash throughout the night, so follow him @CurtoWorld. There’s no excuse to miss this one, unless your excuse is tuning in to Taijuan Walker’s start for Clinton tonight at 5pm.
Update: The AAA HR Derby is better, both because it doesn’t include Chris Berman and because it DOES include things like local high schoolers. Very reminiscent of the time a few years ago when retired slugger and local realtor Rob Stratton won it in Albuquerque. Seriously, if you watched last year’s contest between millionaires and you don’t watch/listen to this, you are a midsummer classist. Brad Mills of Las Vegas is completing his warm-up tosses now.
Update 2: Bryan LaHair is mic’ed up for tonight’s game. Just when you think it can’t get any better….
2011 Pulaski Mariners Preview
The Aquasox preview had the caveat of “this roster is probably not finalized yet and we’ll likely see a lot of changes to it before the end of the season.” The Pulaski preview has the same caution with the added issue of limited local press and me getting the roster late, resulting in the kind of slapdash write-up that only I could give 1800+ words to. Considering Pulaski was hit by tornados a couple of months ago, I suppose they have other things to worry about over there.
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2011 Everett Aquasox Preview
We all remember what happened last year. I looked at the roster the Aquasox were going to field on opening day, said it didn’t seem all that interesting, and then a couple of months later they won the NWL Championship. Funny how that works out. And yet a lot of the names from the 2010 squad are already gone from the system: Evan Sharpley, Kevin Mailluox, Hawkins Gebbers, Ryan Royster, Eric Thomas, Jorden Merry, John Housey. I don’t even know if Terry Serrano is still around, but he was a free agent in the winter. The most dominant bat in the NWL, Kevin Rivers, is now putting up pedestrian numbers in Clinton (better of late), LHP Anthony Fernandez and RHP Chris Sorce are taking their lumps in High Desert, and LHP Edlando Seco, the fifth man in the rotation, didn’t start the year in the rotation and is having his poor command catch up with him. Baseball is kind of weird when you get right down to it.
Anyway, the roster isn’t totally in place yet, as we’ve seen fewer higher-end signings to this point than we usually get. There’s still some talent around in the pitching staff though, it just seems to be a team that’s currently constructed to pitch a lot and then hope for enough offense to get by, which can be a little tricky when there are only so many position players on the roster that can bat left-handed. Some of those fellows are among the better players on the roster.
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2011 Draft Rounds 11-30 Catch-All Thread
Cole Wiper and Kody Watts are still on the board, if you’re into local prospects. So is ginormous bat Trevor Mitsui.
LHP Cameron Hobson, Dayton, #333
C Michael Dowd, #363
CF Jamal Austin, #393 (Jamal Strong v2.0)
RHP Cody Weiss, #423
RHP or maybe CF Michael McGee, #453 (yes, CF, according to Mac)
C Jack Marder, #483 (OREGON!)
CF Nathan Melendres, #513
LHP Nick Valenza, #543
C Luke Guarnaccia, #573 (our 21st-round pick last year, now moves up two rounds)
2B Dillon Hazlett, #603
BREAK
RHP Joseph DiRocco, #633
RHP John Taylor, #663 (USC-Columbia)
RHP Richard White, #693 (US Virgin Islands)
RHP Tanner Chleborad, #723 (South Dakotan, WSU commitment)
RHP Gabriel Saquilon, #753
3B Kenneth Straus, #783
RHP David Colvin, #813
RHP Keone Kela, #843 (Chief Sealth High School)
RHP Jordan Pries, #873
End of Day 2.
The 2011 Draft: Many Names, One Pick
Next Monday, around four o’clock, the Mariners are going to select the player that will likely finish the season as their number one prospect. It’s very cool for us, but also kind of scary. Coming into the season, we were pretty confident that the Pirates would likely take Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon and we’d then have our choice of UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole or TCU LHP Matt Purke or maybe a college hitter. Purke slipped off the radar, Cole has been good at times and mediocre at others, the college hitters haven’t broken away, and Rendon has simply been injured. In the meantime, various other names have clawed their way into the discussion and the whole thing has become nebulous as the “what have you done for me lately?” scouting crowd starts to make their vocal presence known. There’s a phrase my father used to use for situations like these, but it’s unrepeatable in polite company.
In the past few weeks, I’ve heard about seven different names linked in discussions for picks one through three of the first round. At this stage, the hope still seems to be that we get Rendon, but no one knows what the Pirates are going to do. If Rendon is off the board, it could go in any number of directions. What follows is seven capsules on the players we’re likely looking at. The information is largely culled from various internet sources and synthesized/spun in some small way. I’m not playing armchair scout yet because that’s something I reserve for draft day and players that I know to be in the system. College data is taken from collegesplits.com, prep data is pilfered from BA’s Top 200 Prospects list.
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2011 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
This our triple-A team. I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking repeat. The new park down there in Tacoma is also looking really nice now and I’m looking forward to checking it out in the coming weeks, as soon as they’re playing at home and I have the free time to get there.
With this, the minor league preview season is done and the minor league regular season starts tomorrow. I won’t have a wrap up for the first Monday, because four games isn’t so much to look at, but things should resume their usual routine on the following Monday. I’ll be working on other projects in the meantime.
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2011 Jackson Generals Preview
Sometimes, you play with the roster you have and not the roster you would like to have. I mean, look at the Mariners bullpen. The Jackson Generals, in their first season with a new name, are running into a similar issue. They have eight players on their DL to open the season, spanning all throughout the roster. I have no idea what the team will really look like a month from now, but here’s some projections based on the available data. It seems like it could be a pretty solid team with a chance at the playoffs. I guess.
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