2011 High Desert Mavericks Preview
The end of spring training leaves the Mavericks in a strange position, perhaps stranger than the fact that I am still writing about them in 2011 when I did not want to be writing about them in 2009. On one hand, they’ve eliminated radio broadcast in a cost cutting measure, though I’ve heard that one fellow will be doing weekend games on a pro bono basis. On the other, ticket prices are down (yay?) and the new ownership group plans on sticking it out in Adelanto and trying to talk the city into making stadium improvements. We are going to be stuck there forever, in a park that had a 156/156 factor for home runs last year. Might as well make the best of it…
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2011 Clinton Lumberkings Preview
Here we go, just two days away now and already getting some rosters in. This year’s group of Lumberkings has a much younger look than last year’s, with nine players on the roster born in the 90s. It also has intriguing talent at just about every position, and as a team, might interest me even more than last year’s west division champion squad. The Lumberkings will be celebrating their 75th anniversary in Clinton this year, and if things break right for them, it could be a good one. I’m already planning on tuning into a lot of games.
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What Would A Successful 2011 Mariner Season Look Like?
After telling us to “Believe Big” last year, the mood around this year’s team is much more subdued. While I’m sure that everyone on the field staff will tell you that their goal is to win, the reality of the situation is that the Mariners are longshots to really contend this year. Like with any team, there are scenarios where the Mariners could get a bunch of unexpectedly great performances and shock the world, but the odds of this team ending up in the playoffs are probably 10 percent or less.
It’s possible that the M’s could be this year’s version of what the Padres were last year, winning a bunch of low-scoring games with smoke and mirrors and hanging around until September. However, the more likely outcome is that they don’t prevent enough runs to win while scoring four runs per game, and they end the season with somewhere between 70 and 80 wins. Less than 70 wins is probably a minor disaster, while more than 80 is a very pleasant surprise. But, in that 70-80 win range, there’s a lot of different potential outcomes that will determine whether this season is retroactively seen as a success or not. The win total won’t really determine the optimism that the organization takes into 2012, but specific developments likely will. As we stand here waiting for the first pitch of the 2011 season, here are the five things that I believe will drive the perception of this coming season as a success or failure.
1. The Development Of Justin Smoak As A Hitter
The M’s targeted Smoak last summer because the organization had a glaring need for a power hitting first baseman who could take advantage of Safeco’s friendliness to left-handed bats. They needed a guy who could get on base and drive runners in, producing runs in the middle of the order at a bargain salary that would fit into the team’s budget. As a first round pick who tore up the minors, Smoak offers the potential to be that guy, but he also showed quite a few warts after coming over from Texas. His strikeout rate was absurdly high, his struggles against left-handed pitching alarming, and his defense at first base was not as advertised. Instead of being a future star, Smoak looked like a solid platoon player if he made enough adjustments to hit big league pitching. That’s not what the team thought they were getting, though, and that’s not what they need.
If Smoak can show some real improvement and put up a .280/.350/.500 line, he’ll offer some real hope for the future and allow the team to focus on other areas for long term improvement. If he continues to swing through hittable fastballs and get exploited by left-handed pitchers, however, the organization might have to re-consider whether he’s good enough to be a middle-of-the-order hitter on a team that wants to win.
2. The Development Of Dustin Ackley As A Second Baseman
Despite offensive numbers that could be construed as a disappointment last year, I’m not concerned about Ackley’s bat. He’s going to hit for average and draw a lot of walks, and while reasonable people can differ over his power potential, the real key to his value is how well he’ll be able to play second base. He has the physical abilities to be solid and maybe even good there, but he still shows his inexperience too frequently. A .300/.370/.450 guy is a star if he’s a good defensive second baseman, but he’s just a nice regular if he has to move back to the outfield. The team intentionally set up second base placeholders to allow him to get to Seattle quickly, but it’s glove, not his bat, that will determine how fast he can make that transition. Quick improvements in turning the double play would help tremendously, and give the team an offensive shot in the arm that they could really use.
3. The Development Of Michael Pineda‘s Change-Up
I’ll stop using the development headline after this one, I promise. I wrote about this two weeks ago, so I won’t re-hash too much of that post, but how quickly Pineda develops a weapon against left-handers will tell us quite a bit about how realistic it will be to expect him to be able to slide into the #2 spot in the rotation behind Felix next year. If he can get lefties out, then the M’s will have two dynamite young arms. That’s still an if, though, and the organization would love to have the answer to that question turn out in a positive way.
4. Can They Get Franklin Gutierrez Healthy?
Like it or not, Gutierrez is still the M’s third best player, and having him on the sidelines with an undiagnosed illness is a real problem. The M’s gave Guti a five year contract, so it’s not like they can just move on if this turns out to be a long term issue. They need to get Gutierrez healthy and back to being a +15 center fielder with a league average bat. This team doesn’t have enough talent to have him turn into a part-time player. They need him to get back to being a good everyday guy, but first, they just have to figure out what’s wrong.
5. Are The Young Bullpen Guys Good Enough To Build Around?
With Tom Wilhelmsen, Josh Lueke, Dan Cortes, and potentially returning-from-injury guys Shawn Kelley and Mauricio Robles, the M’s have an assortment of interesting young relievers that are near Major League ready. The current bullpen is full of replacement level placeholders, so for the team to get back to having a shut down bullpen, they’ll need several of these young guys to really develop into shutdown relief aces. There’s questions surrounding all of them, however, and projecting reliever performance is never easy. The team probably has enough arms that they can expect one or two to develop into good late inning options, but ideally, they’d be able to breed an entire new bullpen out of some the guys coming up through the system. If Cortes and Lueke fail to live up to their potential, then the team will have to go reliever shopping again next winter, and that’s money that needs to be spent elsewhere.
There are other guys on the roster whose performances matter as well, but for the most part, this organization’s direction will be judged based on the outcomes of these five variables. If most of them go the M’s way, odds are good that they’ll be seen as a team on the rise with prospects for contention next year. If they get poor results from these guys, though, then we could be in for a long year and a lot of speculation about where this team is headed.
AL West Prospects Part I: 2011 Impact
The AL West has a clear pecking order, but without a runaway favorite (a projected 95 win team), each team has to balance developing prospects with running out the side that maximizes their playoff odds. The Angels and M’s need a lot of help, which actually makes things easier – they’re going to play their prospects, because they don’t have better options. The A’s and Rangers need less help, but will still rely on rookies for depth and replacing injured starters. In this post, we’re going to focus on prospects who’ll make an impact in the upcoming season – I’m not denying that Mike Trout, Nick Franklin or Michael Choice are great prospects, I’m just going to address them in another post.
For 2011, the big names are:
Angels: Peter Bourjos, Hank Conger, Mark Trumbo
A’s: Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Tyson Ross
Rangers: Tanner Scheppers, Michael Kirkman, Eric Hurley
Mariners: Justin Smoak, Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley
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Dave’s Offseason Plan, 2011 Style
It’s back again – the annual winter tradition where I speculate on some potential moves the M’s could make and put together my own roster for next year. I try to be as realistic as possible, though everyone will have their own opinions on the viability of these moves. I’m sticking to a $93 million budget, about the same amount as what the team spent last year, and will hopefully get in the realm of possibility with the dollars for the arbitration eligible guys and suggested free agents. In the one trade suggested, I’ve tried to fairly compensate the other team with sufficient talent to make the deal work for both sides. As always, the specific players are examples of the types of moves I’d like to see the team make, but there are various alternatives at each position. Oh, and yes, this is your thread for rosterbation. Go nuts.
The Moves
Trade David Aardsma and Jose Lopez to Arizona for OF Cole Gillespie and IF Ryan Roberts
Sign DH Lance Berkman to a 2 year, $12 million contract
Sign LHP Jeff Francis to a 2 year, $10 million contract
Sign IF Nick Punto to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract
Sign LHP Mark Hendrickson to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign LHP Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.
The Rationale
The Mariners are in something of a tough spot. Coming off a miserable season, they have to improve the roster to avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales, but with a good Texas team to catch and Anaheim poised to spend a ton of money this winter, contending for the division title in 2011 is probably too much to ask. There’s just too much ground to make up in one winter to get on an even playing field with the Rangers, not to mention trying to overcome an Angels team that could land both Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre this winter.
So, the team needs to make moves that improve the roster, but that also fit into a longer term picture. They’re not in the position to be using prospects in trade to upgrade the major league team, and they don’t have enough money to spend to land a marquee free agent. They also need to make sure that they keep opportunities free for the young talent that is nearly major league ready without putting out a team full of rookies that will lose 100 games again. It’s a tough balancing act, there are pieces that the team can go after that would be able to help the team in both 2011 and beyond. That’s what I’ve tried to emphasize with these moves. Let’s take them one at a time.
Trading David Aardsma is the most obvious move of the winter, and now that they’ve declined Jose Lopez’s option, moving him becomes the second most obvious move. I’ve killed two birds with one stone by trading them away in the same deal. Kevin Towers has made it clear that he has two priorities as the new GM of the Diamondbacks this winter – improve their bullpen and fix the offenses contact problems. Aardsma gives them a fairly low cost closer, while Lopez offers a player who can replace some of Mark Reynolds power with about 150 fewer strikeouts per season, as they are likely to ship out Reynolds this winter. He’d be a decent fit in Seattle if the M’s could unload Chone Figgins, but I don’t see how to make that happen, so for now we just settle on giving Arizona their replacement and their ninth inning guy.
In exchange, the Mariners acquire a couple of useful role players. Gillespie is a classic fourth outfielder in the making, as a guy with no premium tools but decent skills across the board. He draws some walks, has gap power, runs okay, and plays a decent corner outfield, but he’s probably best served as a part-time player. He’d be a perfect fit to share time with Michael Saunders in left and offer some low cost outfield depth with a little bit of upside. Roberts is a utility infielder with a little bit of pop in his bat who had a good 2009 season but flopped last year. Both are cheap role players who fill needs, and given that neither Aardsma nor Lopez have a ton of trade value, this is about what you can expect for the pair. They’re useful pieces that the team needs, and that’s good enough considering what the Mariners are giving up.
They won’t fix the offense, of course, and for the addition of some thump into the line-up, we turn to the free agent market. Lance Berkman is my preferred DH candidate, offering the best package of multiple years of production without a huge cost. He’s going to be 35 next year and is coming off the worst year of his career, but there are reasons to think he’s a good bounce back candidate – his drop in power coincided with a wrist injury that should be healed by next year, and nearly all of his other skills remained equal to his 2009 season when he posted a .386 wOBA.
He wants a full time job and the opportunity to play the field at times, and the Mariners can offer him both, as he could split time with Justin Smoak and hit cleanup on a daily basis. He provides a patient, switch-hitting bat who could take advantage of Safeco’s friendly right field porch, and gives you some depth at first base in case Smoak flops or gets hurt. Going two years may seem risky for a guy his age, but it’s worth the risk to get Berkman in the M’s line-up. If he rebounds, he’ll easily be worth the money and give the team a legitimate cleanup hitter for both 2011 and 2012.
Berkman’s not the only guy we’re handing a two year contract to, however. The other investment I’m making this winter is in the rotation, which is full of question marks once you get past Felix. In order to give the team another quality arm who will love what pitching in Safeco Field will do for his numbers, I turn to Jeff Francis, who was set free by the Rockies when they declined his $7 million option for 2011. Francis has had a reasonably solid career considering he’s spent it pitching in Coors Field, and as a British Columbia kid, would almost certainly welcome the chance to move to a park near his hometown that is paradise on earth for left-handed pitch-to-contact starters.
Francis is, in many ways, similar to Jason Vargas. They’re both soft-tossing lefties who have excellent change-ups and plus command, and while neither is a big strikeout pitcher, they have good enough stuff to miss bats when they have to. Obviously, we’ve seen how well Vargas has flourished in Safeco (like many others before him), and Francis would likely receive a similar benefit from the park. He’s now two years removed from shoulder surgery that cost him all of the 2009 season and limited him to just over 100 innings pitched last year, but his stuff is most of the way back and he actually posted the lowest xFIP of his career last year. He can provide solid innings as a middle of the rotation starter, and should be the kind of starter that the M’s can acquire without paying too high of a price.
The rest of the moves are stopgap fillers for 2011, as the team simply needs to plug some holes while waiting for kids to develop. Nick Punto is a terrific defensive infielder who can play second base until Dustin Ackley is ready, provide an alternative to Jack Wilson when he’s on the DL or traded, and serve as a quality backup infielder when not in the line-up. He’s a slap-hitter with no power, but he’s also legitimately one of the best defenders in the game, and would give Ackley a great example to learn from. His lack of offense will keep his price in the range that the Mariners can afford, and while I’m sure most of you are tired of guys who can’t hit, he’s the best option the team has for the role.
Mark Hendrickson gives the team a cheap quality left-handed setup guy who will be underrated because of an inflated ERA from last year. His peripherals are still fine, and he’s a perfect capable lefty out of the pen. With Baltimore declining his option for $1.2 million, he’s sure to come at a modest cost, and would give Eric Wedge some experience in what would otherwise be a very young bullpen.
Gregg Zaun fills the role of backup catcher, and provides a few benefits – he’s a switch-hitter, has a little bit of power, and as a 40-year-old, he won’t be complaining about playing second fiddle to Adam Moore. There are a number of candidates for the veteran backup catcher role, but Zaun is my favorite and fits in the budget.
We talked about Moyer earlier this week. He’s a perfect fit in the long relief/6th starter role, and if he wants to pitch in MLB next year, this is probably his best bet.
Is it the kind of offseason that will put the Mariners back into the mix for the AL West? No, but I’m not sure that is possible anyway. What it does give the team is a good chance for a .500 season (this roster projects out to about an 80 win team or so) while adding a couple of pieces that could still be useful in 2012. It gives the kids a chance to play while not making the team a disaster if they fail, and maintains most of the financial flexibility the team will get following next year, when Milton Bradley, Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jack Wilson come off the books.
The reality is that this team won’t be good again until Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, and Michael Pineda are ready to be core pieces. That won’t happen this year, but this roster would give the team the ability to let all three get their feet wet in the big leagues while hopefully winning enough games to avoid everyone getting fired again.
The Crossroads That Is 2011
There are 70 games left in the 2010 season, but no one thinks they really matter much anymore. Yes, it’s nicer to win than to lose, and no one is just going to give up and roll over, but the team is playing for the future and everyone knows it. The question, though, is whether that future can begin next year?
Based on players currently in the organization, the 2011 roster looks something like this:
C; Moore
1B: Smoak
2B: Ackley
SS: Jack Wilson
3B: Figgins
LF: Saunders
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
DH: Bradley
Starters: Felix-Vargas-Fister-Pineda-RRS
I don’t think anyone would look at that team and think it was a legitimate contender. There’s two guys who have never played in the majors in starting roles, three young guys still trying to find their way as regular position players, and a rotation full of question marks behind Felix. Oh, and the bullpen isn’t great either.
The team will have some money to spend, somewhere the $10 to $20 million range depending on what the budget is and who else they trade away in the next few weeks. But, there’s almost no way to turn that team into a contender by adding a couple of pieces, because the strength of the team in young talent may also be the thing that keeps them from winning next year.
There are some potential foundation pieces in place. Smoak, Saunders, and Ackley could all hold down their respective positions for years to come. Pineda could give the team another dynamic power arm that it lacks behind Felix right now. Moore could still be a useful catcher. These guys have enough talent to be real building blocks – guys you don’t want to block with veteran players. They all should come to camp next spring with a chance to win a job on Opening Day. You could bring in insurance policy types who can push them and serve as placeholders if they’re not ready, but you’re not going to bring in an established quality player that will get in the way if the kids prove that they’ve little left to learn in Triple-A.
So, what positions can the Mariners realistically try to upgrade at? C, LF, 2B, and 1B are off the table because of the kids. 3B, CF, and RF are out because you’ve got guys under long term contracts at those spots. That leaves, essentially, shortstop, designated hitter, and the rotation as potential points of upgrade this winter.
Even if the team decided to bring in two established starters to go with Felix, Fister, and Vargas, you’re still looking at four spots on the roster that you can really make significant upgrades at (the bench and bullpen don’t matter enough to count). And at two of those, you have guys already under contract for 2011 – Jack Wilson and Milton Bradley.
Bradley is unmovable, beyond just releasing him, which the team probably won’t do unless they have someone they expect to hit better as the DH. They don’t have that guy right now, and its unlikely that they’ll spend much money this winter to bring in a guy who doesn’t play defense, and is likely at the end of his career. So, the Mariners only option is, essentially, try like crazy to move Jack Wilson’s contract in the next couple of weeks, freeing up money and a position to seek an upgrade this winter.
There’s a problem with that, too, though – good shortstops aren’t exactly laying around waiting to sign low money deals to play in Seattle. The big free agent shortstops this winter will be Derek Jeter – and, honestly, I’m more likely to take the field for the Mariners on opening day next year than he is – and a bunch of guys who aren’t any better than Jack Wilson. The team could try to trade for a young shortstop, but they did that last summer, and they found that Wilson was the best guy they could get. The best case scenario for picking up a guy in trade would be a guy like Ryan Theriot, but he’s basically just the same thing that Wilson is at the plate, only with less glove.
A substantial upgrade at shortstop is essentially not realistic. The team could potentially pursue a guy like Carlos Pena to DH and dump Bradley, but does anyone think that the line-up above, with Pena added to the mix, is the makings of a winner? And would Pena even want to stop playing the field regularly at this point in his career? The answer to both of those questions is probably not.
And so, we’re left with the reality that the Mariners have reached a point where they’re not really playing for 2011, but instead, they’re playing for 2012. They’ll lose $20 million in commitments when Bradley and Wilson become free agents, the young kids will have hopefully matured or proven themselves not worthy of full-time jobs, and they’ll still have all the useful pieces that are on the team now. Realistically, that’s probably their next chance to contend – the year when Ackley, Smoak, Saunders, and Pineda could be contributors rather than kids still adjusting to the big leagues and they have the resources to go out and add some talent at positions like SS and DH.
Who knows – maybe Jack will make some moves in the next few months that surprise me and steal enough talent away to turn this team around before next year begins. I just don’t see how he could pull that off, though. Right now, I think this team realistically will need another year. They’re playing for the future, but they’re not playing for next year.
The 2011 Mariners
2010 is in the books at this point. Yes, miracles can happen, and the team theoretically could rip off 65 wins and steal the division title by a hair, but you can’t make decisions based on the expectation of a miracle, and the Mariners have some decisions to make. When a season is a lost cause, the silver lining is the chance to take a look at some guys who wouldn’t get a real shot when a team was trying to win. You can start to look at your roster with an eye towards the following year and try to figure out what you have and what you need. So let’s do just that.
2011 Salary Obligatoins, via Cot’s Contracts:
C: Moore/Johnson – Needs Upgrade.
1B: Carp – Needs Upgrade
2B: Figgins/Ackley – No Move Necessary
SS: Wilson/Wilson – Question Mark
3B: Lopez/Figgins – Question Mark
LF: Saunders – Question Mark
CF: Gutierrez – No Move Necessary
RF: Ichiro – No Move Necessary
DH: Bradley – Question Mark
Bench: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#1: Felix Hernandez – No Move Necessary
#2: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#3: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#4: Doug Fister – No Move Necessary
#5: Jason Vargas – No Move Necessary
CL: David Aardsma – Question Mark
Setup: Brandon League – No Move Necessary
Setup: Shawn Kelley – No Move Necessary
Setup: Mark Lowe – Question Mark
Middle: Ryan Rowland-Smith – Question Mark
Middle: Empty – Question Mark
Long: Luke French – No Move Necessary
Out of 25 roster spots, we’re not even able to label 10 of them as positions that the club doesn’t need to worry about filling. That’s not good, especially considering that the team is not going to have much money to spend this winter. Current obligations for 2010 come to just under $70 million, and that doesn’t include salaries for any of the arbitration eligible guys the team will want back – most notably, Jason Vargas, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Based on expected raises, you have to pencil that group in for somewhere around $10 million.
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
Jack Zduriencik is not going to be able to go out and fix all of this team’s problems in free agency. He might not be able to fix any of them in free agency. This team is going to have to make some shrewd trades and get production from low salary guys. There aren’t many in the high minors ready to step in and contribute, so they’re going to have to be acquired from other sources. And that’s where the rest of this season can give the Mariners a leg up.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues. The Mariners now have approximately four months to give those guys an audition. The longer they wait, hoping for a miracle, the less time they have to find guys who can stake a claim on next year’s roster. That’s why they shouldn’t sit around and wait until July 31st before they start making moves.
Call the Royals about Kila Ka’aihue (26-year-old 1B/DH hitting .326/.503/.617 in Triple-A), and try to pry away Alex Gordon while you’re at it. See if you can get Trevor Plouffe from Minnesota or Tyler Greene from St. Louis to offer another young, cheap option at shortstop. Give Chris Resop a shot to show what he can do on the mound. These are the kinds of players the team will need production from in 2011, and they don’t have enough good internal options to give the kids from Tacoma a shot. Mike Carp is not good enough to be this team’s first baseman next year – not if they want to try to win. Garrett Olson isn’t going to fill one of the holes in the rotation. These guys are serviceable role players at best, and this is a roster that needs more than that.
The organization has a lot of work to do if they want to be a contender next year. They can’t wait until the off-season to go to work. They should start tomorrow. 2010 is officially over, and the team is now playing for 2011.
Game 162 –
Tyler Anderson vs. Reid Detmers, 12:10pm
It’s perhaps the most anticipated Mariners game in years, and perhaps the best day for baseball fans since what, 2011? We’ve seen amazing single games in the playoffs, but it’s been a long time since a wild card race has had this many teams still fighting, and MLB’s made the brilliant decision to start all of these games simultaneously. This is the opening round of March Madness, but baseball, with a playoff spot on the line. The Yankees loss made up for the M’s loss the previous day, and improbably, the M’s are still alive.
With an absolutely massive come-from-behind win after what looked like a crushing 3-run HR gave the Angels the lead, the M’s have given themselves a chance. I’ve not seen the kind of pandemonium at the stadium and outside of it *at a Mariners game* since the last M’s playoff series. Felix’s last game comes sort of close, but that’s just a reminder that the last several things that have brought a huge crowd to their feet, urging the team on, summoning belief, have all been sad occasions.
Underneath all of this euphoria, this is a sad occasion as well: this is almost certainly Kyle Seager’s last game in a Mariners uniform, and it’s another reminder that despite this group’s undeniable camaraderie, a ton of moves are coming in the offseason. The least heralded and perhaps most important deadline deal in the majors is the one that brought Tyler Anderson to Seattle. They’ve already turned to him to save a season that could’ve slipped away, and they’ll do it again today. He’s now one of the bigger decisions the M’s will have to make this offseason. The M’s have more rotation slots to fill than they expected, with the M’s a lock to turn down Yusei Kikuchi’s option (though Kikuchi could be back if he exercises his one-year player option), and after Justus Sheffield’s disastrous 2021. Anderson’s steadying half-season was critical as the M’s playoff shot changed slightly from 100% pure luck to something more like a decent team getting hot at the right time.
If there’s any concern for the game, and it’s hard to even think about concerns having been gifted this unbelievable baseball holiday, it’s that Anderson’s worst game of the year came against this Angels club a bit over a week ago. He’ll have to be much sharper, of course, but he’ll also be able to lean on his hit-and-homer-suppressing stadium. That context will help the Angels’ Reid Detmers, too, but the rookie appears to need a lot more help than park effects can provide. Detmers rise has been meteoric; after the Angels’ made him their first round pick in 2020, he breezed through the minors in just over 60 IP, reaching the majors in early August. At AA/AAA, his curve/fastball combination was nearly untouchable, and he K’s 108 in those 62 IP. Somewhat similar to Logan Gilbert perhaps, his breaking ball wasn’t quite the bat-missing weapon at the highest level, at least initially. Gilbert eventually refined his slider and has shown he belongs. Detmers hasn’t yet done the same with his big breaking, slow curve or his harder slider. Detmers is giving up too much hard contact, and thus he’s given up 23 hits in 19 innings, including 5 dingers in his 4 starts. Detmers is the Angels’ future, and I understand wanting to see more of him, particularly after an IL stint, but this is pretty good match-up for the M’s. It doesn’t hurt that Detmers is a lefty, giving the M’s Mitch Haniger and Ty France the platoon advantage.
I think I’m not alone in thinking that last night’s game was the happiest I’ve been watching an M’s game in over a decade. It hasn’t swept away all of the concerns I have for the team in 2022, but it’s shown how compelling baseball can be, and how a chase like this builds tension over weeks and months, making moments like Haniger’s single unbelievably cathartic. I don’t much care what happens in the wild card game, should the M’s make it, and I don’t have a preference who or where they play. I just feel like we’ve been given a gift, and I’m grateful for every minute of this. Despite all of the three-way and four-way tie scenarios, despite all of the intricacies of the tiebreakers, the M’s have made things delightfully simple. Just win, and you might get to play again. Win that, and you get to play more. Repeat. This season looked like it was over right as it began, when James Paxton’s elbow gave out a bit more than an inning into his season. That it hasn’t, and that it’s gone the bizarre way it has, is a testament to Scott Servais and this club’s collective belief. One of the hard things about blogging about the Seattle bloody Mariners all these years is the way time compresses and erases so much – the years run together, the bad and mediocre teams had moments that I thought I’d always remember, but they get buried by another 5 years of falling short. Whatever happens today, I can honestly say I will never forget this team and this year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Torrens, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Moore, LF
SP: Anderson
Toronto hosts Baltimore, as Hyun-Jin Ryu squares off against Bruce Zimmermann. New York turns to Jameson Taillon against the Rays’ Michael Wacha and presumably more of their bullpen of death. The Red Sox have Chris Sale starting in DC against Joan Adon, a youngster making his MLB debut.
Go M’s. And also, Go Nats, Go Rays, and Go Orioles.
What Would “Going For It” Look Like?
There are two distinct but interrelated questions all of us are trying to figure out right now: 1) Should the Mariners, 1.5 games out of the wild card but with an offense putting up a .294 OBP and with a negative run differential, trade some of their prospects for help? And 2) If the answer is yes, what kind of moves are most likely?
Because 1 is exceedingly hard to answer in a vacuum, we’ll spend most of our time poking around at 2. There are many, many trade scenarios that would add value to the line-up but which don’t make a whole lot of sense, and many of these Dipoto has talked about: rental players in exchange for significant prospects. No one expects that, Dipoto doesn’t want to make such moves, and we can pretty much ignore them. On the other hand, we’ve got deals that literally anyone would make: trades that add some modicum of benefit to this year’s club AND who have at least another year of club control, in exchange for prospects who are years away and/or players with a lower ceiling. If you can convince another team to make *that* kind of deal, you do so, and no one’s going to argue about it. So we’ll set aside Kris-Bryant-for-Julio Rodriguez, and we’ll set aside Jose-Berrios-for-a-PTBNL-and-cash-considerations at this point and try to examine Dipoto’s own history of deadline trades. Because he’s Jerry Dipoto, there are a lot of deals to talk about.
For this, we’ll look at instances where a Dipoto-led team made trades to improve in the current year. We’re not talking about interim-GM-Jerry’s trade of Dan Haren for Tyler Skaggs back in 2010, because the D’backs were awful, and were trying to rebuild. Likewise, we’re not talking about trading James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, as that wasn’t a deadline deal, and wasn’t a win-now deal, either. I’m not sure how exhaustive a list to make it, so some minor things I’ll skip over, but let’s see if we can find any patterns.
2012: Los Angeles Angels
Deadline Record: 57-47, 2nd in AL West
Jerry Dipoto became the GM in the late-autumn of 2011, and quickly found himself in an ideal situation. His boss, owner Arte Moreno, opened his checkbook, allowing Dipoto to sign Albert Pujols and the top SP on the FA market, CJ Wilson, on the same December day. Hyped rookie Mike Trout, who’d debuted in 2011, had an all-time rookie season, cruising to 10 WAR in 2012. Trout drove the offense, and Pujols chipped in with his last Pujolsian season. CJ Wilson was…fine, but Jered Weaver went 20-5, and the Angels were in a great position at 10 games over at the deadline.
As good as the offense was, the pitching staff was merely good. The bullpen was middle-of-the-pack in July, and the rotation was about the same. Neither group was bad or anything, but the problem was that the Angels were fighting tooth and nail with two clubs, the Athletics and defending AL Champion Rangers, who both had stronger bullpens than the Angels. The Angels rotation was a clear step ahead of the A’s by record, but not by FIP. The out-of-nowhere A’s were behind in the standings, but shockingly not as bad as everyone thought they’d be.
With no real allegiance to the prospects he’d inherited from Tony Reagins and with encouragement from an owner who’d splashed out for Pujols, Dipoto went all in. On July 27th, Dipoto sent prized IF prospect Jean Segura and other prospects for the biggest rental player on the market: SP Zack Greinke of Milwaukee.
Did it work?
Eh, not really. The Angels finished 89-73, but finished in 3rd place and missed the playoffs. The Rangers, long thought the prohibitive favorite, won 93 games and the wildcard as the A’s pipped them at the post, winning 94 games and the divisional title. The Rangers humiliation would continue, as they’d lose the play-in game to the Baltimore Orioles, who started Mariners cast-off (and one-time Angel) Joe Saunders.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Absolutely not. There are plenty of big-name rentals available, though perhaps none quite as sought-after as Greinke was in 2012. Dipoto has said time and again he’s not interested.
Minor trade of note: In early May, Dipoto swapped IF prospect Alexi Amarista for Padres reliever Ernesto Frieri, and the Angels had their closer.
2014 Los Angeles Angels:
Deadline Record: 64-43, 2nd in AL West
After a disappointing 2013, things came together the following year. The offense still had Mike Trout, who was still unreal despite league-wide offense tanking. Albert Pujols sad decline was in effect, but essentially everyone on the team was at least league-average at the plate. They weren’t going to blow anyone out of the water at the plate, but particularly for their (pitcher-friendly) park, their line-up was an overall plus.
Their rotation was, again, a strength, as Matt Shoemaker has his best year as a rookie, and Garrett Richards had the kind of season that ensured he’ll always find work in MLB despite injuries and ineffectiveness marring his career. CJ Wilson had a down year, but Jered Weaver was still quite good.
There was a problem, though. Their bullpen ranked 26th in fWAR in the first half. Frieri turned into a pumpking, sporting an ERA well over 6 when he was traded for Pirates reliever Jason Grilli in late June.
Grilli was coming off some very successful seasons in Pittsburgh, but had a down first-half by his standards. It was a solid change-of-scenery deal for both teams, but Dipoto wasn’t done. After taking a flyer on AAA veteran and last-chance lefty Rich Hill on July 1, Dipoto pushed his chips all in and traded some of his best pitching prospects for Padres closer Huston Street. Trading for Padres relievers had worked so well in 2012, so he decided to go for the top closer on the market. He also nabbed Street’s set-up man, acquiring Joe Thatcher in a separate deal. All in all, Dipoto parted with his #1, #7, #8, and #10 prospects (per https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/11/5297876/los-angeles-angels-top-20-prospects-for-2014).
Did it Work?
Yes, I think this has to be seen as a success. The Angels bullpen improved, and they cruised to a 98-win season, 10 games up on the A’s (who won the Wild Card). The context here was that the division itself was down, as the Rangers window was closing, and the A’s seemingly always about to collapse. The Mariners were moving up fast, finishing a game behind the Angels, but were probably a year or two away.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Not exactly, no. There are some big-name relievers on the market, including Rich Rodriguez of Pittsburgh, but I can’t imagine that’s something the M’s would be involved in. However, I think this solidified in Dipoto’s mind the importance of a strong bullpen. He hasn’t always shown the ability to reliably create one, mind you, but looking for buy-low relievers has been top of mind since before he got the M’s job. A move like the Joe Thatcher deal may be much more likely than a Huston Street-style splash.
Minor trade of note:
The Angels acquired reliever Vinnie Pestano from Cleveland in exchange for low-lever SP flyer Mike Clevinger. Pestano was great for the Angels, albeit in less than 10 IP. Clevinger eventually became a top SP, but is out with TJ rehab after joining the Padres.
2016 Seattle Mariners
Deadline record: 52-51, 3rd in AL West
The new GM inherited what seemed like a talented but underperforming club with a poor farm club. That script seemed to be playing out in 2016, as the Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano-led offense finished 2nd in the AL in home runs, which helped them play around some black holes in the line-up, notably SS Ketel Marte, C Chris Iannetta, and CF Leonys Martin. The division was tough, but winnable, with the Astros a year away from full-spectrum dominance (with an asterisk, of course). Texas had their last hoorah as a force in the division, but they made no sense. They led the division at the break, but had a negative run differential. In the end, they’d win the division going away despite a pythagorean record of 82-80.
The M’s bullpen was a strength in the first half, and the line-up was powerful, if allergic to leather – they had the second worst defensive numbers in the game.
The starting rotation had been revamped before the year, with Wade Miley and Nate Karns coming in. Both struggled, especially with long-balls in a year that would challenge all-time records for HRs – records that were about to be smashed, repeatedly. The M’s were in third place, and the wild card looked impossible in late July. Teams in the AL East and Central had sizable leads. Thus, the M’s played it safe, making a series of small addition-by-subtraction moves.
Wade Miley was off to Baltimore in exchange for Ariel Miranda. Struggling reliever Joaquin Benoit was swapped for fellow struggling-reliever Drew Storen. The M’s swapped low-level relief prospect Jake Brentz for hard-throwing Arquimedes Caminero. And Dipoto re-acquired Wade LeBlanc, a player he’d picked up in Anaheim, and would continue to look for in Seattle. The headline move, though, was something of a head-scratcher. The M’s newest relief ace was lefty set-up guy Mike Montgomery, in his first year in the pen after his debut with the M’s a year earlier. The M’s were on the fringes of a playoff race, but swapped an effective reliever for a prospect: in this case, Cubs 1B/DH prospect, Dan Vogelbach.
Did it work?
Yes, actually. Storen was decent, Caminero looked good at times, and importantly, neither looked as bad as Benoit. Wade Miley needed to go, and did. Of course, things also worked out well for the other teams: Mike Montgomery helped the Cubs win the World Series that year, pitching the last out in relief. Jake Brentz is, finally, in the majors and pitching well, though not for the club that traded for him.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
I wouldn’t be surprised. As good as trading for need is, sometimes dealing from depth is just as important a maxim. The M’s have a lot of bullpen depth suddenly, and while it would piss off the clubhouse, I can imagine Dipoto deciding to sell high on, say, Drew Steckenrider, particularly if the M’s series with Houston doesn’t go well.
Minor trade of note:
Well, they were all minor that year, but a minor trade this year is one of the most painful: in June, the M’s sent IF Chris Taylor to the Dodgers for SP Zach Lee. Taylor, the new NL Player of the Week, has become an excellent hitter capable of playing all over the IF and OF. He posted a nearly 5-WAR season in 2017, and is on his way to something similar here in 2021. If the M’s want to reacquire him, and they absolutely should, it’ll cost quite a bit in free agency.
2017 Seattle Mariners:
Deadline Record: 54-53, 2nd in AL West
The 2017 Mariners still had an excellent offense and fixed some of their defensive ineptitude from 2016. The division was, perhaps, a bit weaker, but it had a runaway leader: the newly dominant Houston Astros, who’d go on to win over 100 games. But despite a great record in one-run games, the M’s pitching was in shambles. Trade target Yovani Gallardo imploded, and Ariel Miranda, who’d looked interesting in the second half of 2016, looked much less so in 2017. Injuries and ineffectiveness led the M’s to cycle through guys like Christian Bergman, Sam Gaviglio, and Andrew Moore. Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez battled injuries and ineffectiveness.
Worse, the bullpen wasn’t always able to bail them out. Edwin Diaz wasn’t as good as he’d been in 2016, and while $1 special Tony Zych was great, Marc Rzepczynski was not, and James Pazos was up-and-down. So with the team in 2nd, but facing an uphill climb to make the playoffs, the M’s made a couple of moves to shore up their beleaguered pitching staff. They flipped OF prospect Tyler O’Neill for Cards lefty Marco Gonzales, buying low on a guy still working his way back from injury. They probably foresaw Gonzales getting big league innings in 2017, and he did, so you can kind of call it a move to supplement the big-league team, but it was much more a move to improve the M’s rotation down the road.
To help the bullpen, the M’s packaged prospects OF Brayan Hernandez and SP Pablo Lopez to the Marlins for reliever David Phelps. Phelps was having a great year, and the M’s prospects were in the lower levels, but this turned into a disaster when Phelps blew out his elbow a few weeks after coming over. Much better was the trade a week later to reacquire Erasmo Ramirez from Tampa in exchange for erstwhile closer Steve Cishek.
Still figuring out if they were in or out, the M’s then made a splash just after the deadline, trading OF Boog Powell for 1B Yonder Alonso. Alonso had been known for his discipline, but had shown little power for a 1B, but was on a power spree in early 2017 with Oakland.
Did it work?
It’s a mixed bag, here, but the short and longer term answer is probably no. The M’s slumped in August and September, finishing below .500 and out of the race. Alonso’s discipline-but-no-power approach was back, Gonzales got hit very hard in Seattle, and, as mentioned, Phelps got hurt. Erasmo Ramirez pitched pretty well down the stretch of increasingly less important games.
We debated the O’Neill/Gonzales trade furiously, as I worried that the M’s had given up the best player. O’Neill is having a breakout season now, but won’t add as much value as Gonzales did between 2018-2020, though his collapse this year is a real concern. What no one knew at the time was that the best player traded in this spree wasn’t either guy – it was Lopez, the pitchability lefty the M’s added in what was then the Hernandez-for-Phelps deal. He hasn’t logged the IP or WAR as Gonzales, but he’s grown into a very good #2 SP, though he is on the shelf at the moment with shoulder discomfort, which is never good.
Is this type of trade(s) likely this year?
I think so. As with the previous year, Dipoto likes to hedge his best, combining win-now moves with some attention to longer term needs. I don’t say that disparagingly at all, he’s been better at that than I’ve given him credit for, and it’s one reason why the M’s are in this position. I don’t think he has some remarkable acumen in talent ID; the Taylor-for-Lee swap would disabuse anyone of that notion. But his process has been better than we bloggers often realize, and that’s worth something. I can see people getting upset if he does something like that this year, but with their playoff odds still remote and with the team firmly in negative run differential territory, you can argue for playing for a year in which Jarred Kelenic hits better than .100.
Minor trade of note: Anthony Misiewicz and Luis Rengifo for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton
This trade didn’t mean much, especially with Rengifo regressing in Anaheim, but it’s a testament to how often the same names repeat themselves in Dipoto’s trade logs. He’d reacquire Misiewicz later on, and he’d become a solid part of the M’s bullpen this year. You could do this with everyone from Keynan Middleton and Vinnie Nittoli to Tyler Skaggs and Wade LeBlanc. If you’re a player wondering if Dipoto still has your agent’s number, don’t worry: he does.
2018 Seattle Mariners
Deadline Record: 63-44, 2nd in AL West
The division was still Houston’s to lose, but the M’s unreal start had them in control of the Wild Card. The bullpen was now a strength, leading to a great record in one-run games yet again. Gonzales’ emergence solidified the rotation, and that group, too, was above average. The bats were merely league-average, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. Mitch Haniger, just acquired from Arizona, was a revelation, as was the guy he came over with, Jean Segura (see what I mean about names repeating?). Dan Vogelbach was taking longer than expected, and Mike Zunino fell off of his brilliant 2017 pace, but even if you wanted to argue that the team was lucky – and let’s be clear, they were: they had a negative run differential despite a huge win total – you couldn’t take away all of those wins that they’d banked.
The focus at the deadline was shoring up the team, and particularly the bullpen. Lucky was one thing, but lucky AND good was the goal. Thus, relief prospect Seth Elledge was flipped for Sam Tuivailala, SP prospect Andrew Moore went to Tampa for Denard Span and Alex Colome, and then the M’s flipped cash and lower-level prospects for rental relievers Zach Duke from the left side and Adam Warren from the right.
Did it work?
No. All told, the M’s bullpen had a better ERA in the 2nd half than in the 1st (albeit with a poorer FIP), but the gamble failed, as the luck that had alighted on the M’s skipped town. The team was already looking shakier in July, and then had a mediocre August. They finished in third place in the strong AL West behind Houston and Oakland. Their record of 89-73 looked nothing like their Pythagorean record of 77-85, and ultimately convinced Dipoto and ownership to embark on the step-back/rebuild that they’re still navigating today.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Despite their bullpen being a signal strength, I think we could see another Duke+Warren style swoop. It cost them very little and seemed to make sense. Warren came from the Yankees, possessors of a bullpen that was too good to give innings to him, for example. I know Dipoto doesn’t want rentals, but a nearly-free guy getting shut out of high-leverage innings might be too tempting.
Minor trade of note: Bryson Brigman for Cameron Maybin
Again, good idea to get a former uber-prospect at a position of need, but this didn’t quite work out.
What have we learned?
Jerry Dipoto wants to blend near-term and medium-term improvements, and Zack Greinke ain’t happening in 2021. He learned in 2014 and potentially again in 2016-18 how important bullpen success is, and thus I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former reliever target bullpen upgrades as much for load management as anything else. The M’s have serious needs at the plate, and that’s why they’re being linked with Royals 2B Whit Merrifield, but Merrifield may cost more than the M’s want to spend, as he’s under contract for 2022 and has a team option for 2023.
The M’s aren’t moving Kelenic/Raleigh/Rodriguez/Gilbert, and probably won’t sell low-ish on George Kirby and Emerson Hancock, who are pitching sparingly as the M’s manage their workload. Thus, it might center on the M’s willingness to part with Noelvi Marte. I simply can’t see that happening. If the M’s wanted to move some of their pitching depth, it would take more than Hancock on his own, and the Royals may be loathe to go for Kirby if they’re worried he’s not 100%.
Thus, I think we might see more bullpen help, and probably some selling of solid contributors as well as buying near-term help as the M’s go all-in (kind of) in 2022.
2021 Draft Post
Round 1: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
The M’s eschewed the expert consensus over who they’d pick (mostly UCLA SS Matt McClain, and, failing that, one of the top college pitchers) as well as their own history, going for HS C Harry Ford of North Cobb HS in Georgia. The freakishly-athletic Ford has a big bat, but also drew raves for his speed, leading some to think he could play in the OF down the road.
The M’s have been very consistent at the top of the draft, especially under Jerry Dipoto. They’ve taken a college player every year, from Kyle Lewis, then Evan White, and then the run of college pitchers with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock. Picking at #12, they weren’t going to have the ability to grab an absolutely elite, top-of-the-scale, in-the-running-at-1:1 prep product. That’s what makes this pick so interesting; how did they get enough information after two Covid-impacted high school seasons to feel comfortable taking Ford here? As we talked about with Chris Crawford yesterday, I think the scouting combine probably helped a number of teams understand what players did well and what they need to work on.
But Ford didn’t attend MLB’s Draft Combine, so the M’s were evidently convinced by their scouts that they had seen enough to know that Ford was a special athlete, and getting down to the third significant digit in his 40-yard dash time wasn’t going to meaningfully move the needle on him. The draft didn’t quite go according to plan, with Kumar Rocker dropping to 10th, and with teams grabbing players hoping for underslot deals just ahead of where the M’s picked. But this doesn’t feel like an underslot play; Ford’s a huge talent, and the M’s apparently got their man. The slot value of this pick is $4.37 million, for those keeping an eye on the bonus pool total.
Even with the Angels, Dipoto’s focused on College players. I think Dipoto’s Angels didn’t draft a first-round HS player, though, to be fair, they surrendered their first rounder for signing free agents like Albert Pujols, and they were comfortable enough to grab, say, Jahmai Jones, *near* the top of the process. Because of all of this, I’m legitimately surprised the M’s went for Ford, but I’m excited to see them break out of what seemed to be a hardened orthodoxy around College talent. Welcome, Harry Ford!
Round 2: Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Baseball Academy (PR)
Staying in the prep ranks, the M’s take Puerto Rican shortstop, Edwin Arroyo. The M’s have found talent in PR and in the early rounds before (Edwin Diaz!), so this is less of a departure, but Arroyo – unlike Ford – did attend the MLB Draft Combine in North Carolina, so if M’s scouts had less of an opportunity to scout him due to the pandemic, they probably appreciated the ability to see him play games against high-level competition as well as to get some metrics on arm speed/bat speed, etc.
Arroyo’s a switch-hitter, and currently stands at 6’0″ and 170 lbs. I’ve seen him seen as the top prospect out of Puerto Rico this year, continuing PR’s resurgence as a hotbed of baseball talent after a fallow period that ended when Francisco Lindor went #8 in 2011. He’s committed to Florida State, but his slot value is a bit over $1.5 million, making it pretty likely he’ll sign with Seattle.
A personal fave of mine, SS Edwin Arroyo can pick it, throw it, and swing it from both sides of the plate. A very good pick by the #Mariners
Round 3: Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS (PA)
Michael Morales is a righty starter out of a Pennsylvania HS that MLB ranked as the #109 prospect coming into the draft. A Vanderbilt commit, Morales throws a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a big curve, and a good change that may one day be his best pitch.
There may be some signability questions, as Morales was seen as a back-of-the-first-round or potential Competitive Balance pick, and slid to the 3rd round. These are the kinds of players that Vanderbilt has been pretty successful at convincing to go to college and improve their stock. The slot value here is $733,000, whereas the 2nd-round pick value is double that. The M’s track record on developing pitching may help Dipoto and Co. convince Morales to sign, and it’s also possible that the M’s could save a bit on their first two (or next) picks and redirect some of that to this pick, similar to the way they saved a bit on Evan White in order to convince Sam Carlson to sign back in 2017.
Round 4: Bryce Miller, SP, Texas A&M
Ladies and Gentlemen, a College pitcher! Bryce Miller was a top-100 draft prospect per MLB, Miller’s a senior who’d been a reliever for two years after transferring in from a Texas JC. This year, he made 10 starts, and struck out 70 in 56 2/3 IP. The righty has good stuff, but has struggled with control, and that problem didn’t resolve when he stretched out as a starter. He walked over 5 per 9 this season for the Aggies, and also plunked 13 batters.
Like many players, his season was impacted by the pandemic, as contact tracing forced him to miss a couple of key SEC series. He played in the Cape Cod league in 2019, albeit for less than 10 IP, but between the Cape and A&M (where the M’s were scouting Zach DeLoach last year), the M’s have obviously seen him a fair amount. And more than most players, I imagine he’s a guy with really polarizing reports. He’s got mid-90s velocity, and a curve and slider that can both look intriguing. He tossed 7 scoreless in a non-league game, striking out 15 with no walks this year, and then a game against Alabama in which he went only 2 1/3, striking out 2, walking 2, and plunking *4*, leading to 4 runs allowed. This is a scouting call, and again, it might help that the M’s have done well with pitchers somewhat similar to Miller, including Brandon Williamson.
Round 5: Andy Thomas, C, Baylor University
Andy Thomas is a 5th-year senior at Baylor, a kid who took advantage of the NCAA offering players an extra year of eligibility after last year’s season was mostly wiped out by the pandemic. The California native had a great freshman season back in 2017, and was a finalist for the Buster Posey award for the top collegiate catcher this year. He started 2020 in a slump, so his numbers looked off that year, and seems to have made a great decision to take advantage of that fifth year of eligibility.
He hit .337/.411/.575, and more than doubled his career high in HRs with 11. His BB% was around 11% with a K% of around 13%; over his college career, he walked more than he struck out. I’d imagine that the M’s are looking to save a bit of money with this pick; the slot value is $379,000. More importantly, with Cal Raleigh now in Seattle, and with Harry Ford a long ways off, this team really needs depth at C in the minors. They’ve been filling it through minor league free agents and minor league Rule 5 picks, so this selection helps them re-stock their affiliates with a player with high-level collegiate experience.
More as the draft rolls on, but taking a break for the afternoon.