Game 143, Astros at Mariners
King Felix vs. Brad Peacock, 7:10pm
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com 52.3% Baseballprospectus.com: 47.5%
Happy Felix Day, everyone. I apologize for not getting game threads up, but I decided to take a page out of Jeff/Matthew’s book and go camping instead. I’ve mentioned the many ways this season feels different than its immediate predecessors, but I’ve been camping several times over the past few years and not once was I upset about missing an M’s game. I was a bit upset at missing these two games. Not distraught or anything, but hey, after the decade we’ve all had, any sort of feeling is a good sign.
The Astros come to town fresh off a series win against the Athletics, another sign that Houston’s not quite the embarassment they’ve been for the past few years. Since July 1st, they’re 19-15, which isn’t bad for a team that lost an astonishing 218 games over 2012-13. They’ve even posted the 2nd best improvement in run differential from 2013 to 2014 at +152 runs (2nd behind Seattle at +223). They’re still not good, of course, and with George Springer on the 15-day DL, they’re arguably less interesting than a a team that’s this far into a rebuild should be. But they’re not without strengths. One player to whom the label “strength” applies is 1B/LF/DH Chris Carter, the lumbering slugger who came to Houston in the Jed Lowrie deal with Oakland – a trade that also netted the Astros tonight’s starter, Brad Peacock.* Carter went from PCL terror (Mike Curto still shudders involuntarily at the mention of his name, the result of the show he put on in the 2009 PCL playoffs) to overmatched, overage MLB prospect to possible AL home run crown winner. His success sheds some light on the shifts baseball’s undergone in the past five-ten seasons.
Carter had light-tower power coming out of HS, and put up solid power numbers in the minors, first in the White Sox system and then with the A’s. But he was always beset by strikeout issues, and his trouble with breaking balls and pitch recognition has led to freakishly high whiff rates. By pitch fx, no qualified batter has made less contact than Carter. That’s a problem – one that can only be overcome with great defense, an extremely patient approach, or off-the-charts power. Carter’s not a great fielder, even at 1B, so the combination of his fielding and his spot on the fielding spectrum means he’s yielded over 50 runs in his brief MLB career thus far. So, the balancing attribute isn’t going to be defense. Carter’s walk rate is a very respectable 8.8% this year, but that’s down substantially from his 11% career rate, or the 12% he put up last year. The problem is that he’s an aggressive hitter, and thus he swings at more pitches than average, despite seeing a few less strikes. It’s not that he flails at pitches in the dirt, but that he’ll swing at pitches on the edges – and just off the edges – of the zone. So, he’s not going to put up peak-period Adam Dunn OBPs either.
To be viable at ALL in baseball, Carter has to make the most of every time he contacts the ball. For Carter, that’s meant focusing on launch angle. Just looking at Mike Fast’s tweets (former public sabermetrics guy and current Astros employee), it looks like the team pays a lot of attention to that too. We don’t have hit FX, but we can certainly look at Carter’s GB and FB rates. Since 2012, his FB% has gone from 45.7% to 46.8% to 53.9%. The Astros aren’t paying Carter to hit ground balls, so this looks like a very good sign. Carter’s 2nd in the league in HRs, but his overall batting line certainly isn’t up to those his peers like Jose Abreu, Mike Trout or even Nelson Cruz are crafting. We’re still talking about a limited player here,** but the larger question behind all of this is: how do you get the most out of what you have? The Astros are getting more out of Carter than most thought they could.
Brad Peacock is a righty with a 93mph four-seam fastball that gets a ton of vertical rise. As such, it won’t shock you that he’s an extreme fly ball/pop-up guy who has his share of home run problems. To lefties, he’ll throw a big curve ball and a change-up, and to righties he features a slider, backed by the curve. The hook’s his best pitch, with solid whiff rates and a record of success against lefties. The fastball’s solid, as the vertical movement gets him less contact than you’d think, while minimizing platoon splits. The problem is that he trades occasional hard contact for these assorted virtues, and his walk rate makes that a really steep price to pay. It’s odd for a guy who throws so many four-seam fastballs, but Peacock’s *career* BB/9 is 4.42, and his career walk rate is over 11%. That’s fine if you’re a fireballer with enough velocity to minimize HRs/hard contact or a reliever who strikes out enough to compensate. It’s not fine if you’re a starter giving up 1.35 HR/9. His career ERA/FIP are essentially identical, and thus he’s just slightly above replacement level over his 212 career IP whichever flavor of WAR you choose. There’s always the sense that there’s more talent in there somewhere, and that a small change would produce big results the way they have for teammates Collin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel. But for now, Peacock’s the same guy the M’s have seen often the past two seasons – a guy who will reward a patient approach, and will give batters a few mistakes over the course of the game.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Chavez, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, RF
9: Miller, SS
SP: KING FELIX
Go out and watch this one, Seattle. This is a critical game in September with the M’s best pitcher taking on a divisional rival. Gooooooo.
Lots of lefties tonight, and a warm welcome back to Michael Saunders. Nice timing too, with Dustin Ackley’s ankle still bothering him.
The Tigers and Royals are facing off right now, so the M’s gain ground on someone. I suppose it’s time to temporarily start cheering for the Royals, which is tough because I *just* got used to rooting against them. The A’s have been in free fall, which makes their trip to the south side so critical. Schadenfreude is seeing a team that looked like the class of baseball pressing in a must-win game against Hector Noesi.
* That trade’s been good for all involved. The A’s got Lowrie’s best/healthiest year ever last year and rode him to a 3+ WAR season and the playoffs. The Astros solved their 1B/DH woes after shuffling through Carlos Pena, Brett Wallace and Brandon Laird.
* I’ve been thinking about what player Carter reminds me of. Mark Reynolds comes to mind, of course, but a 3B has more to offer defensively, and Reynolds got started a bit quicker. I’d point out that Carter’s 2013 K% was actually higher than Reynolds career high, a fact that surprised me more than it probably should have. Going back to the similar offensive environment of the 80s, Jesse Barfield is out due to great defense, and George Bell because he struck out infrequently. But I think I’ve got one. This player bounced between AAA-MLB for three years before getting a starting gig at 27 and putting up a line of .244/.320/.498. In his next season, he went .243/.307/.477 and led the league in strikeouts. Carter’s first year? .223/.320/.451. This year, he’s at .235/.309/.521, and ranks last in contact. Neither had big platoon splits ala Ryan Howard, they’re the same type of hitter against righties and lefties alike. So there you go, Chris Carter is most like ex-Royal and ex-Mariner Steve “Bye-Bye” Balboni.
Podcast: Inside the Cutoff Again
A quick turnaround and the Mariners have gone back to winning since our last recording. They now sit just two back of Oakland. We spend some time talking about that.
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Game 140, Mariners at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Scott Baker, 5:05pm
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com: 46.6% Baseballprospectus.com: 47.3%
Only Detroit’s seven-run 11th inning against Cleveland marred a dominant night by two Seattle sports teams, with the M’s drubbing a Texas team featuring two players making their MLB debuts, and Jon Edwards, who was apparently a failed OF in the Cardinals organization as recently as 2010. They are shattering the record for most players used in a season, and despite a universally-praised system, nothing’s been able to staunch the bleeding. Not the kids, and not the veteran stop-gaps like Joe Saunders or today’s starter, Scott Baker.
When the M’s signed Baker on a minor league deal, it seemed like a great low-risk pick-up. Baker’s road back from Tommy John had been unusually long and winding, but he’d come back to make a handful of appearances for the Cubs in 2013. If his velocity continued to rebound, he seemed like a decent 5th starter candidate. Not good enough for the M’s, of course, who opted first for Randy Wolf and then, at the 11th hour, for Chris Young. Baker’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and with Texas, his GB% is a Chris-Young-esque 26%. In his best years with the Twins, he was able to get a decent number of strikeouts thanks to a solid slider and by working up in the zone with his fastball, and he’s always had good control. The problem, even in those good years, has been home runs. Pitching up works well for some, and on balance it probably was the right move for Baker, but he (like everyone else in baseball) didn’t have Chris Young’s magical HR/FB suppressing ability, and so he’d give up a fair number of long balls, which meant his ERA and FIP weren’t as pretty as his K:BB ratio.
An important part of his ability to last despite an elevated HR rate was the fact that he really didn’t display any platoon splits, or at least he didn’t show constantly wide splits. For his career, he’s got a FIP of 4.02 against lefties and 4.00 against righties, and he’s done this despite using primarily fastballs and sliders. That said, this is not the same Scott Baker anymore. While his velocity’s up a tick from where it was last year, it’s just 90-91, or 1.5-2mph down from his peak in Minnesota around 2010-2011. That’s part of the reason why his K% has stayed around 15% this year as opposed to the 20%+ figures he ran years ago, despite the fact that he’s been used in relief a lot this year. That relief usage has allowed him to face more right-handed bats, which is somewhat lucky, given his problems with lefties this year. Given his career numbers and the fact he hasn’t pitched much, it’s easy to see those splits as an Arlington-driven, small-sample oddity, but I’m not so sure. Lefties are destroying his slider these days, and given that he’s used his change-up so sparingly, it’s not clear what Baker can do about this.
Obviously, it’s possible that Baker’s issues with BABIP and the ugly line drive rate he’s given up have something to do with the quality of the OF defense behind him. Balls that fall in for hits are more likely to be scored line drives than those that are caught, so who knows. But the M’s aren’t terribly interested in Baker’s “true talent” today – they just want to beat him. And given his struggles against lefties, his HR problems, and the fact that the M’s have fared better against fly-ballers overall, they’ve got a pretty good shot to do that, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Morales, DH
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Chavez, RF
9: Miller, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Detroit hosts the Giants tonight in a game pitting Jake Peavy against Rick Porcello. The Royals send James Shields to the hill against the Yankees and old friend Michael Pineda.
Texas has seen so many players lost to injury, and now they’ll have to struggle on without their manager. Ron Washington resigned before today’s game, saying that he needed to focus on, “an off the field personal matter.” No idea what that is, and have zero interest in speculating, but I sincerely wish you well, Wash.
In much less surprising personnel moves, the Arizona Diamondbacks fired their GM today. Kevin Towers was widely seen as a lame-duck, especially after the DBacks brought in Tony LaRussa as their chief of Baseball Operations back in May. Towers’ deals over the past two seasons drew criticism from the Fangraphs crowd and from more traditional baseball folks, and while his insistence on grit was always going to get him some barbs from the sabermetric community, the team he put together has been a disappointment by any measure. I’m a bit surprised they made the move now, with less than a month to go in the season, but given that his firing seemed inevitable, I guess there was no point in keeping him around. Towers had a very good run as GM with the Padres, and had some initial success in Arizona, but it’s been a very rough couple of years.
Jeff’s got an article at Fangraphs today showing how Mike Zunino’s power and hit-by-pitch acumen have him in select company. Or, uh, the company of Miguel Olivo. “Select” can have many implications. Jeff went with the term “unusual,” and Olivo DID chew a teammate’s ear off, so we’ll go with Jeff’s term. This is in no way a comparison between the two in overall value; Zunino’s a great defender, while Olivo remains *a guy who chewed a teammate’s ear off.* But yeah, neither of them are overly fond of taking pitches.
Game 139, Mariners at Rangers
Roenis Elias vs. Robbie Ross, 5:05pm
Wildcard Odds- Fangraphs.com: 45.3%. Baseballprospectus.com: 41.6%
Big day yesterday, as a great performance from Felix paired with a Detroit loss to give the M’s playoff odds a boost.
Today, the M’s head to Arlington to take on the reeling Rangers, who more resemble a AAA club than the team many thought could win the division. Robbie Ross won a spring competition to start the year in the rotation, and while injuries helped with that, he looked like he belonged. The lefty blanked the M’s over 7 2/3 IP back in April – his third straight solid outing to begin the year. Five days later, he got knocked around a bit and simply hasn’t been the same.
Ross is heavily fastball dependent, though he also throws a slider, curve and change. He gets good sink, and his delivery must be deceptive to righties, as he never had problems with RHBs, at least until this year. He’s always generated grounders, which has helped him avoid HRs, but even with a solid GB%, he’s had HR issues this year. It can’t be too shocking considering his home park and raw stuff that’s never been elite (he was seen as a finesse lefty by many when he was coming through the minors), but he, like the entire club, has been both bad and tremendously unlucky.
Most teams stack their lineups with righties, but Ross has reverse splits for his career in part because his slider’s been so bad against lefties. That said, his fastball’s been poor to righties this year after being effective for the two years he spent in the Texas bullpen.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Hart, DH
7: Denorfia, RF
8: Taylor, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Elias
Game 138, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jon Lester, 12:35pm
Wildcard odds – Fangraphs.com: 38.9% Baseballprospectus.com: 37.0%
Happy Felix Day!
The M’s desperately needed a long outing from James Paxton last night following Chris Young’s less-than-an-inning disaster the previous day. They got one, and the M’s can now take the series with their ace on the hill.
I talked about Gray being potentially the A’s ace, and evidently that prospect frightened Billy Beane a bit, as he traded Yoenis Cespedes for today’s A’s starter, Jon Lester. The Piece County native has put up his best season in the majors, with a FIP under 3 for the first time in his career. His K% is now approaching his career high, but he’s also cut his walk rate substantially, all without a return of the home run problems that plagued his 2012.
Lester’s maintained his excellent peripherals and runs allowed stats since moving to the A’s, though his fastball velocity is down a bit from August of 2013. It clearly hasn’t hurt his whiffs, and he’s throwing more strikes, but it’s odd to see his velocity settle down a bit right when most pitchers peak, and where he was throwing hardest last year. Since moving to the A’s, he’s shelved his change-up, which was never a big part of his arsenal. He’s now a four- and two-seam fastball/cutter/curve ball pitcher. He’ll throw cutters in any count, to RHB/LHBs, and often features it more than his fastball.
Line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Denorfia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Hart, DH
7: Zunino, C
8: Romero, RF
9: Taylor, SS
SP: King Felix
Seven righties in the starting line-up today against the lefty Lester. I understand it a bit, though Lester’s been extremely tough on righties this year, and has career splits narrower than many left-handers. I’m not sure the platoon-split gain of starting Romero is worth the trade-offs, but of course that’s got a lot more to do with injuries than anything. Endy Chavez has been hot, but you do not want him within a quarter mile of today’s starting line-up. If the choice was Romero or a healthy Saunders, I think you go with Saunders, but that’s not helping McClendon fill out the line-up card.
The A’s line-up’s been quiet recently, with many pointing to the departure of Cespedes in the Lester deal. But the A’s are also down a lefty hitter who’s put up a 119 wRC+ this year in 344 PAs – C/DH John Jaso, who’s been sidelined with the aftereffects of a concussion. Jaso spoke with Eno Sarris about his recovery today at Fangraphs.
Podcast: Down the Stretch
Sorry for the delay folks; Labor Day camping took us far away from our recording outposts. This week we get into the recent scuffling, Jesus Montero, and who hasn’t been terrible for the Mariners lately and what’s to come.
Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.
Game 137, Mariners at Athletics
James Paxton vs. Sonny Gray, 7:05pm
Wildcard odds – Fangraphs.com: 35.2% Baseballprospectus.com: 31.4%
Quick one tonight, as I’m pressed for time. This is a great match-up of young arms that we could see for years as the M’s look to become a rival/equal of the A’s. As good as their pitching has been, and as good as Gray himself’s been, the A’s aren’t exactly outclassing the M’s. Gray’s excellent, and he’ll rack up more than 3 fWAR by season’s end, but that pales in comparison to the seasons Felix and Iwakuma have produced. Still, in Gray the A’s have a cost-controlled pitcher without much in the way of platoon splits who’s excellent in the cavernous O.Co Coliseum and on the road. He’s got a solid fastball at 94-95, a solid average change-up and a true weapon to LHB/RHBs alike in his hellacious curve ball. That was famously the pitch that no one in the big leagues had ever hit for a home run until he gave up two in one game to the Angels (Mike Trout’ll do that to you).
He’ll be a pain in this division for years, but pitch for pitch, James Paxton may be better. That’s saying a lot, and I hesitate to press “publish” on this, but seriously – Paxton has been a revelation, even if he’s been sidelined for far too long. I have no idea what happened to him last August, but everything’s clicked for him, and like all M’s fans, I just want this run to continue – and I want Paxton to be healthy enough to take the ball every five days for many, many years.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Morales, DH
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Chavez, RF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Paxton
Yes, Paxton and Erasmo have been called up now that the MiLB season is officially over. The most successful clubs in the affiliated minors (above the complex league) were the Tacoma Rainiers, who finished four games over .500, and the Pulaski Mariners in the Appy League, who closed on a hot streak to finish six games over. Jackson and High Desert (AA and A+, respectively) finished below .500, in the middle of the pack in their divisions, while Everett recovered from a disastrous start to finish at 17-21. The only team to win a division crown were those complex league AZL Mariners, who finished 31-22.
Forrest Snow – Once and Future Prospect?
In June of 2010, the M’s drafted a local kid out of the University of Washington in the 36th round. Not many paid attention, and it’s not like a glance at the UW stats would’ve given you cause for optimism. In that 2010 season at Montlake, Forrest Snow posted an ERA of 6.30, which sounded terrible, but adding in 13 unearned runs pushed his RA/9 8.11. And yet, he was a local product with a great pitcher’s frame (he’s 6’6″) who sat around 90-91mph. Moreover, he hadn’t been pitching all that long – only a few years in high school after he grew too tall to continue catching. After hitting pro ball and professional strength and conditioning programs, he blossomed, garnering rave reviews in the 2011 Arizona Fall League. After a trying 2012, he bounced back in 2013 but a 50-game suspension for “a drug of abuse” resulted in lost time in 2014. Despite a somewhat rough finish to this season, Snow pitched well enough in June/July to put himself back on the (admittedly crowded) list of hopefuls for a bullpen job in 2015. He’s also a 40-man protection candidate this year. I spoke with him at Cheney Stadium last week as he prepared to finish the season and then head to Mexico for winter ball.
MW: You weren’t terribly successful at UW, and then as soon as you hit pro ball, the results were there. What happened at UW? Or, what happened after you signed?
Snow: Pitching at UW was a great experience. I’d been drafted out of HS by the Mariners, and decided I wasn’t ready. I’d only been pitching off a mound for two years. I needed to learn how to attack hitters, work counts, etc. At UW, I learned how to work hard and how to work as part of a staff. However, I didn’t really have a role. At times I was a reliever, at times a starter. That carried over to pro ball. Much my success can be attributed to that experience of being a utility pitcher. The Mariners thought I had the repertoire to continue in that role – starting or relieving.
Do you prefer one role or another?
No, I just love having the ball and throwing it at a catcher. I grew up loving the game and loving the Mariners, and any role they see for me, I’ll be more than happy to work 100% at it.
In college, was your velocity the same – low-90s fastball – or did you get a jump after signing with the M’s?
My first few years at UW, I was 89-92, and then junior year I was more 91-92 because I gained some weight. After signing and starting the M’s strength program, I was working harder, and by 2012 I was weighing in at 225 and ended up touching the mid 90s. After that, I’ve learned that “foot on the gas” approach all the time just wasn’t right for me – I’ve learned to pump the breaks and take a bit off and use more movement.
Your fastball’s always had a lot of horizontal movement, despite being a four-seamer. Was that always the case? Was there a mechanical change to produce that?
My arm angle’s been pretty consistent since I started; it’s gradually gotten more over-the-top since high-school, but I’ve focused on putting a lot of pressure on my pointer finger, which helps with pronation, and it produces a good riding fastball. I’ve wanted to add a sinker or a two-seamer, something with a lot of vertical depth, to no avail…yet. It’s still on the back burner, I’ll work on it this off-season and see if I can develop another weapon.
In 2011, you pitched for four different teams, culminating with the Peoria Javelinas of the AFL. When you got the AFL call, what did you think? Were you surprised by that assignment? Did you know about the AFL?
I was surprised; I got the call in Tacoma – Daren Brown told me I’d be heading down to the AFL. I thought it was an instructional league. Once I get down there, it’s this collection of top prospects and guys who are climbing the ranks quickly. I didn’t think much of it when I first heard about the assignment.
You didn’t put more pressure on yourself –
No, I was doing the same thing – a few starts, a bunch of relief appearances. More of that utility role.
So back then, October of 2011, you had some success, and you were getting written up a lot. Geoff Baker did a story, Kevin Goldstein (now with the Astros) said at Baseball Prospectus that you were one of the better prospects no one had heard of. Did you hear about that stuff? Were you aware of all of the extra attention?
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Game 136, Mariners at Athletics
Chris Young vs. Jason Hammel, 1:05pm
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com: 45.6% Baseballprospectus.com: 40.2%
What a comeback yesterday – it looked like the M’s were on their way to a crippling series sweep when Dustin Ackley’s three-run shot off Tanner Roark turned the game around. Yesterday’s odds were in the mid-high 30% range, so you can see what a difference the M’s comeback (and the Tigers loss) made to their wild card odds. It’s still August, so there aren’t technically must-win games, but that one felt pretty big. If you mapped win probability to playoff odds, Dustin’s HR was as big a single play as we’ve seen in a while – it felt like it was up there with the 9th inning win over Uehara in Boston. Now they need to keep it up against the reeling A’s.
The A’s enter today’s game five games behind the Angels in the West – a divisional lead that looked un-losable has been lost, and the A’s have all but played their way out of the all-important division win/first-round bye. The A’s and Tigers were the most active teams on the trade market before the deadline, with Oakland grabbing Jason Samardzija and today’s starter Jason Hammel and then getting Jon Lester a month later. The Tigers picked up David Price in the Nick Franklin/Austin Jackson deal, with everyone hailing the moves as two playoff-bound teams tweaking their post-season rotations. Since the trades, though, both teams have scuffled. Samardzija’s been solid, but the A’s offense has gone AWOL. Hammel was awful in his first handful of starts for Oakland, but has bounced back recently. Price has been alternately brilliant and mediocre, with his famous nine-straight hit, 2IP/8R disaster against the Yankees his last time out. This isn’t to judge the deals in hindsight or to argue that teams shouldn’t trade for pitchers, but it’s a lesson that pitchers – even great ones – have rough patches, and when you acquire one, you just have to hope that you’ll miss that rough patch.
Jason Hammel seems to be coming out of his rough patch. He’s had three solid starts in his last four tries, with a hard-luck no-decision in Houston’s comeback win on the 26th. Hammel throws a sinker and a four-seamer around 92, with a slider, curve and change up as his secondaries. To righties, he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy, and while he’ll throw his slider to lefties as well, he mixes in the change and curve to them as well. In recent years, he’s not shown too much in the way of platoon splits; a bad 2013 is balanced with even splits this year and even reverse splits in his breakout 2012 year. Even after picking up the sinker in 2012, he’s still been something of a fly-ball pitcher, and that’s made him vulnerable to homers. It’s an interesting career arc – a fly baller in Coors Field who didn’t actually give up a ton of HRs but wasn’t consistent enough (and didn’t have enough swing-and-miss in his arsenal) to be effective, he remade himself as a ground-ball pitcher in Baltimore. He posted the best GB% in his career in 2012 while also seeing a strikeout rate spike…despite moving to the AL. Unfortunately, injuries limited his time, and they took a bite out of his 2013 as well. His velocity was down a bit in 2013, but not enough to explain the barrage of HRs he gave up, the GB% dropping by 13 percentage points, or his K rate sliding back. He’s been better in 2014, but while all of his rate stats have bounced back somewhat, they’re not close to his 2012 rates. Despite his success with the sinker and slider in 2012, he’s throwing more four-seamers again, perhaps just to keep hitters off balance, and perhaps because it’s easier on his arm.
Chris Young got some extra rest heading into this start, which is part of Lloyd McClendon’s canny usage of his rotation down the stretch. Felix and Iwakuma have received an extra day’s rest here and there, and now the veteran Young – coming off another shoulder surgery – will too. Felix and others have struggled a bit, but I don’t think it’s due to the shake-up of the every-five-days grind of the rotation. In any event, this is a huge game for the skyscraping righty. The M’s need a win with the Tigers and Royals facing lesser teams (although at least the Tigers are facing Corey Kluber today).
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Chavez, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Young
The rosters have expanded, so the M’s called up seven players from Tacoma. You see Smoak’s name in the line-up, and Corey Hart, Stefen Romero, Taijuan Walker and Lucas Luetge have been recalled. Two newcomers are Humberto Quintero, a back-up catcher who hit a big HR in yesterday’s game in Fresno, and Carson Smith, the relief prospect with a riding sinking fastball and a big slider. The M’s made room on the forty-man for these two first by moving Willie Bloomquist to the 60-day DL and then by placing Jesus Montero on the suspended list. This is a suspension without pay for Montero, and it opened up a spot on the roster. Erasmo Ramirez and James Paxton should be called up after the Rainiers’ season ends today.
Eno Sarris has a great article and interview with Danny Farquhar at the Fox Sports blog Just a Bit Outside. Check it out.
Game 135, Nationals at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Tanner Roark, 1:10pm
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com: 37.6% Baseballprospectus.com: 31.4%
The M’s look to avoid a sweep behind Hisashi Iwakuma, but they’re facing yet another tough righty, sinkerballer Tanner Roark. Roark was cut by his college team, played a bit of independent league ball, where he posted an ERA over *20* but got signed by the Rangers anyway. After inconsistency and a trade to the Nats organization, he ditched his four-seamer for a two-seamer and re-discovered his confidence and command. After posting decent but nothing special walk rates in the minors, he’s been a strike throwing machine in the big league (though not quite as machine-like as Iwakuma).
His two-seamer comes in at 92mph, and he’ll throw a curve and change to lefties, and a slider to righties. Thanks in part to his curve ball, he’s excelled against lefties. He’s still got platoon splits, but lefties haven’t done as much damage as you’d expect against an average-velo righty who throws lots of sinkers/two-seamers. Against righties, though, he’s been dominant – a K:BB ratio of about 7, and a FIP in the low 2’s. Roark is essentially the Nationals’ version of Chris Young. There’s nothing eye-popping about him, and his overall FIP is good, but nothing all that special. But he’s been phenomenal at limiting runs. He’s now pitched 220 career innings for the Nats and his ERA is just 2.49. Sure, you can expect the strand rate to come down a bit, and maybe some of his success against lefties is BABIP related, but 1: he’s been doing this for over a full year and 2: he has room to regress and still be an extremely effective pitcher. The big key for him has been command – as Dave described, he seems to be able to put his fastball exactly where he wants it to go. C’mon M’s lefties. We need this.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Denorfia, DH
7: Chavez, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
Not really sure why you’d bring in Denorfia to DH against a righty sinker/slider guy, but on the other hand, this is a good day for Miller to get a start.
Stephen Landazuri gets the start for Jackson today, his final start before heading to the Arizona Fall League. Lars Huijer starts for High Desert. No word on who the Rainiers will send up against Fresno tonight.