Mariners Sign Franklin Gutierrez’s Uniform
Last season, in admittedly limited time, Franklin Gutierrez slugged .503, with almost half of his hits going for extra bases. Also last season, under more hitter-friendly circumstances, Nelson Cruz slugged .506. Something to think about as Cruz looks for a contract that could build a modest arena.
Franklin Gutierrez is coming back, with a guarantee. A guarantee of a year and a million dollars, with another two million in possible incentives. If Franklin Gutierrez does everything — if he maxes out his 2014 contract — he’ll earn about as much as Willie Bloomquist. The latest addition to the Mariners is familiar, kind of.
You think about Gutierrez and you think about 2009, much like how with Erik Bedard, for a while, when you thought about him, you’d think about 2007. Let’s establish something right away: 2009 Franklin Gutierrez is dead, and like most dead things, he’s never coming back. You want to believe all that upside’s still there, because Gutierrez struggled on account of his health and he claims to have everything under control. The Mariners like the reports that they’ve seen. But Guti was 26. Next year he’ll be 31, and the current idea is that he’s treating a chronic and incurable illness that I’ll never be able to remember off the top of my head. That’s not a guy who’s going to get back to an old 100%. His new 100% is something very different.
Even for a normal, healthy player, you expect declines over a span of five years. You expect offense to get worse. You certainly expect defense to get worse. I looked at the top ten defensive performances from 26-year-olds between 2002-2008. I then looked at how those same players did at 31. On a per-600-PA basis, the players, as a group, were an average of ten runs worse in the field. Some example names are Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand.
Gutierrez has gone through physical hell, and he’ll never be all the way recovered. It stands to reason that’s taken a toll on his body. It also stands to reason that’s taken a toll on his mind, such that he might take fewer chances, he might be a little more tentative. Last year he didn’t quite look like his old self in the field, and that would be a ridiculous standard to hold him to. Also, Guti probably won’t steal many bases. Also, Guti has talked about how he’s most comfortable playing a few times a week. He can’t be that runner anymore, he can’t be that defender anymore, and he just can’t be that everyday player anymore. As much of a relief as it probably is for Gutierrez to have a diagnosis he believes in, it’s not a pulled hamstring. What he’s got, you can’t just ice.
Those are the reasons to be over Franklin Gutierrez. Those are the reasons to wonder why the Mariners even thought about inviting him back in the first place. A month ago, I never thought it would come to this. I was convinced the Mariners were through with the frustration, the broken threads of hope. But an opening developed, and an openness developed, and there are reasons to not be over Franklin Gutierrez, too. There are reasons to be pleased, and only a few of them are helplessly irrational.
Really, you can just look at the last Guti we saw. That version, feeling well enough, handled the outfield and hit for real power as a righty. When Gutierrez was ill, and feeling it, he had no strength when he played. His energy was sapped and he swung Jack Wilson’s bat. The last version had his weight back, and his strength back, and this isn’t about trying to make too much of 150 plate appearances. Forget Gutierrez’s actual statistics. Just focus on how a scout would see them — Gutierrez demonstrated real pop. Not much in the way of walks, but I wouldn’t blame Guti for feeling an eagerness to make up for lost time. The most recent version of this guy could hit the ball hard from the right side.
And the instincts that made Gutierrez so good in the field before shouldn’t have gone anywhere. His body will be slower, to move and to react, but all the know-how’s there. The ideal combination would be Gutierrez’s experience with Dustin Ackley’s tools or something, but as is, Guti still knows how to play center field, and he might be a little less tentative as he gets re-accustomed to playing.
Dustin Ackley isn’t a real center fielder. Michael Saunders is only a subpar center fielder. Abe Almonte is only a subpar center fielder. All these guys could cut it, but Gutierrez might be an actual center fielder, even if he’s not what he was. Remember that what he was was one of the very greatest of all time, so he could decline an awful lot and still appear to be gifted. Re-signing Gutierrez could simultaneously add a decent right-handed bat and the roster’s first actual center fielder. That is, potentially, some quality depth.
With almost no meaningful commitment. Apparently the incentives don’t even start kicking in until 250 plate appearances, so this’ll cost the Mariners almost nothing. The big difference between 2013 Gutierrez and 2014 Gutierrez is that the team was supposed to rely on 2013 Gutierrez. So when he went down, the plans went tits up, because the plans weren’t thought through very well. The Mariners aren’t making the same mistake, and if something goes wrong, or when something goes wrong, it’ll just be a matter of replacing a role player. I recommend they stash some no-hit burner in Tacoma, in case the team ends up without a center fielder again, but already there are more options. Franklin Gutierrez, when you don’t need him, is almost pure upside.
It all feels so similar to Erik Bedard. This kind of feels similar to Erik Bedard:
Guti says he had other offers, including Indians, but once #Mariners talked to him “I didn’t think twice.” Says Seattle is home after 5 yrs.
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) December 18, 2013
I don’t know if Bedard felt the same kind of “at home”, and Bedard was less pleasant of a person, but he represented so much upside, and when he had a chance to go somewhere else, he returned to Seattle at least in part because he felt loyal to the organization. That last version of Bedard we saw in 2011 wound up turning in 24 starts, with a 3.62 ERA and a strikeout an inning. It was a miracle he was even able to take the mound, and while he wasn’t what he’d been before, he helped more than he hurt, and he flashed those little glimpses. From time to time, Bedard would issue a little reminder that he’d been one of the best pitchers on the planet.
Gutierrez was once one of the best outfielders on the planet, and five years later, he’s re-signed with the Mariners for a year and a million. Jason Bay was awesome in 2009, too, and he didn’t work out a year ago, but then in 2009 Jason Bay was 30, and the year before last he slugged .299. Bay didn’t have Gutierrez’s story. Nobody has Gutierrez’s story, and that’s a big part of what makes him so damned impossible to quit.
What the Mariners know they’re going to have next season is Franklin Gutierrez’s uniform hanging up in the clubhouse. What the Mariners don’t know is who’s going to wear it, but it could end up being a pretty neat guy.
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Anticipated Criticisms Of Robinson Cano
Thursday, officially, the Seattle Mariners introduced Robinson Cano as a Seattle Mariner, with his physical done and with everyone involved with the team back from the winter meetings. There was much happiness and optimism expressed, which always follow any kind of nine-figure agreement between parties, and now that Cano’s name is signed in ink on the line, he’s a part of the family, the family that always embarrasses us but that we say we love anyway sometimes if only because we have to. Now that Cano is a highly-paid Mariner — the highest-paid Mariner, overall — it stands to reason it’s inevitable he’ll attract undue criticism. That’s the way it usually is with stars, and here are the things that I can see coming. There are probably more.
Sometimes he dogs it
I don’t read New York media, because I’m not a complete self-loathing idiot, but still I’ve been made aware that a lot of people around New York would rip on Cano for not always hustling. Lots of accusations of jogging down to first base, and whatnot. There are few things that drive fans more insane than watching a guy not sprint the 90 feet, especially if a ball ends up bobbled or thrown away. Or maybe from time to time Cano watches what he thinks are homers, and then they stay in the yard and he costs himself bases. That second one is just a guess but it wouldn’t surprise me. That doesn’t need to happen often for a guy to get a reputation.
Robinson Cano is not David Eckstein. He’s not a balls-to-the-wall, 110%, grinder, Diamondbacks type. He doesn’t put literally everything he has into literally everything he does, and fans notice, and that’s one of the first wells they’ll go to should things turn sour. But, what does it really mean? Maybe it’s helped Cano stay so durable. It doesn’t mean he’s not committed to the game; if he weren’t, he wouldn’t be what he is. He’s found a way to be one of the very best players in baseball for several years. From time to time maybe he won’t leg out a grounder. Many more times, Mike Zunino will strike out on a pitch out of the zone. It’s never going to be a big deal, and it’s never going to teach all the young players to just be lazy. Sometimes not legging out a grounder is frustration from not hitting the ball well enough, and that’s the opposite of not caring.
He doesn’t hit enough dingers
For $240 million, you expect there to be dingers, and people like to use 30 as a benchmark. Cano’s exceeded 30 one time, by three dingers, otherwise hanging out in the high 20s even spending half the time in new Yankee Stadium. Since the ballpark opened, Cano has hit 16 more dingers at home than on the road, so he might well end up a 20-25-dinger sort. That’s in the short-term, even, and that could look strange to people who just know about all the money.
Over the five years since the ballpark opened, Cano put up a .226 ISO at home, tied for 28th out of players with at least 1,000 home plate appearances. Over the same five years, he put up a .208 ISO on the road, 28th out of players with at least 1,000 road plate appearances. See, Cano also has doubles power, to blend with his dinger power. Also — and this can’t be expressed enough — power is only a part of Cano’s total value. He’s never been a pure dinger hitter. He’s been a quality all-around hitter who plays good defense up the middle. In 2007, he was worth five wins with 19 homers. Last year he was worth six with 27. Don’t expect him to be what he isn’t, because what he is is elite.
He’s too casual in the field
Another way of saying “he’s too casual” is “he makes it look easy”. Like Andruw Jones used to. Or like, you know, Ken Griffey Jr. used to. Cano tends to look extremely…comfortable, around second base, and again he seldom looks as if he’s hustling, but he’s so good the way he is, and some players are just smoother than others. And Cano has worked hard to improve. His first five years at second, he posted a -15 DRS, and a -37 UZR. His last four years at second, he’s posted a +38 DRS, and a +9 UZR. He’s probably not an elite-level defender, like a Darwin Barney or a younger Mark Ellis, but he’s good, and he’s good just the way he is. He already does a lot, because he’s naturally gifted and athletically smooth. One perspective is that “smooth” players should try harder. An opposite perspective is that “smooth” players represent the defensive ideal, where they don’t even need to spaz out.
He’s not a leader
Get paid a quarter of a billion and you’ll be expected to lead a clubhouse. Be an experienced, productive veteran, and you’ll be expected to lead a clubhouse. Cano said himself in his press conference that he’s not a vocal sort, that he prefers to lead by example with what he does on the field and with how he prepares. Lloyd McClendon has already said, in an unrelated press conference, that he’s not looking for leaders in the clubhouse, that he can do that. He’s looking for leaders on the field, and that’s where Cano comes in, as a guy who prepares well and plays extremely well.
Ichiro caused a bunch of local stirs by not being a vocal leader sort, but it’s fair to say Ichiro was a little more withdrawn than Cano presumably will be. Also, those stories were overblown, and Ichiro did a tremendous job of leading by example, even if he was quiet and sort of on an island. Ichiro always did his job, and it was the rest of the team that didn’t. But anyway, this isn’t about Ichiro. This is about Cano, and the team isn’t signing him to give inspirational speeches. That isn’t a part of the plan, so it can’t be a valid criticism later. And as for on-field leadership, how in the hell are we supposed to evaluate that? If the team’s winning, no one will care about this stuff. If the team’s losing, people will care about this stuff, but there will be more glaring performance-related reasons for the losing. Robinson Cano is getting paid a lot of money to be a good baseball player.
He can’t hit in the playoffs
Over 217 career postseason plate appearances Cano has batted .222 with a .686 OPS and I would personally love nothing more than to be able to think about these numbers in the 2014 season to come.
Hart, Morrison, And Something For Everyone
Jeff Passan just put something up at Yahoo! about two agents fighting in the winter meetings resort parking lot. As Passan says, it’s maybe the most interesting thing to happen at the meetings so far, as the biggest move was a three-way trade in which the best player is Mark Trumbo. With the pitching market on hold and so many moves having already been made over the previous few weeks, the meetings have been relatively slow, but then Mariners fans have at least had some material to talk about Wednesday. Earlier today, the Mariners signed Corey Hart to a one-year contract, and then barely minutes later it came out that the Mariners also traded Carter Capps for Logan Morrison. In the time it takes to make a sandwich, the Mariners picked up two significant players, and now we’re that much closer to seeing what the overall picture will look like next March.
The pair of moves is so interesting specifically because it’s so interesting. They might as well be grouped together, since they practically happened together, and what’s notable is that there’s fodder for the most ardent front-office supporters, the most stubborn, outspoken critics, and everybody in between. Truly, there’s something for everyone, no matter where they might be found along the organizational opinion spectrum.
We can take the super positive angle first. Hart’s a great get on a low-risk, one-year deal with a $6-million base. He missed literally the entire season, but he’s not old and over the previous three years he was one of the more productive hitters in all of baseball, with a hell of a lot of power. He’s a good bet to out-hit Nelson Cruz in 2014, and he might even stand a decent chance of out-hitting Shin-Soo Choo, and both those free agents are looking to really cash in. Hart can’t hurt very much, but he can deliver very much, and he makes the Mariners better without taking anything away from the future. What’s not to like?
And then there’s Morrison, who the Mariners got for a reliever with nothing to throw to left-handed hitters. A reliever with diminished velocity and unstable mechanics. A non-elite reliever. Morrison isn’t that far removed from being an upper-level offensive prospect, and while he was on the market, smart teams like the Rays and Pirates checked in to see what they could make happen. He’s supposed to be healthy now, after fighting some knee issues, and he has a good approach, and he’s basically an upside get. He’s under team control for three years, should he take a step forward. He’s 26 years old and his OBP in the upper minors was north of .400. Morrison has potential. Capps has potential, too, but better to have the bat with potential than the reliever with potential, most of the time.
And having Hart and Morrison adds flexibility because now the Mariners can deal Justin Smoak. Or, they can turn around and deal Morrison if they want, maybe as part of a bigger package. There are still teams out there looking for cheap first basemen, and suddenly the Mariners have cheap depth. There’s nothing wrong with having options.
Now we can shift to the negative outlook. You know who Corey Hart is a lot like? Michael Morse. You know who Logan Morrison is a lot like? Justin Smoak. You know who haven’t worked out for the Mariners recently? Michael Morse and Justin Smoak. You can only complain about Hart so much, since he’s affordable and he required nothing in the way of a long-term commitment, but it’s easy to interpret Hart as just the latest in a series of intended dinger-providers. Who knows what he can do after a year off, and reports say the Mariners are giving Hart a base salary that’s about the same as where the Brewers’ offer would’ve topped out. Hart seems like a bargain, but the market allowed him to be a bargain, which might mean he’s not a real bargain at all. And he’s not even the most troubling half of this pair of moves.
Over parts of four seasons, Logan Morrison has posted a career WAR of 1. That’s according to FanGraphs. According to Baseball-Reference, he’s posted a career WAR of -0.1, and that’s while being an above-average hitter. The year Baseball America called Morrison baseball’s #20 prospect, it called Smoak baseball’s #13 prospect. It called Dustin Ackley baseball’s #11 prospect. It called Jesus Montero baseball’s #4 prospect. The Mariners have seen enough of these guys threaten to bust, and Morrison isn’t automatically better just because we haven’t been the ones watching him struggle. His offense has taken a step back, and he doesn’t seem to be an adequate defender anywhere.
And the Mariners say they intend to keep Smoak where he is. Of course, they also say they will turn Nick Franklin into a utility player, so, you know, whatever, this is just how things go this time of year. But the Mariners have been Smoak supporters for a while, and if they do keep him in place like they say, that means Hart and Morrison will split time in left field and at DH. The way it’s been explained to me is that both players will get about half the time at both positions. That means the Mariners would have two left fielders coming off three major knee surgeries.
Morrison might well be a replacement-level player. Hart wasn’t an asset in the outfield even before he busted both his knees. This would be an example of the Mariners both getting suckered again by Smoak-like potential, and ignoring the importance of defense as they did with Morse and Raul Ibanez. If anything the Mariners needed one fewer Smoak, not a second one, playing a defensive position he shouldn’t play. Maybe if Morrison and Smoak were in a job share, you could wait to see if one stepped up. Maybe if the Mariners weren’t in position of needing to win soon, you could wait to see if one stepped up. But Morrison doesn’t look like a great gamble as a half-time outfielder, and Smoak and Hart are forcing him into that position. Though he has the prospect background, that’s getting further and further away, and he’s got 1500 big-league plate appearances suggesting what he is.
If you’ve got material for the most positive people, and if you’ve got material for the most negative people, you’ve got material for everybody else somewhere in the middle. So this has been a pretty fascinating day, with no real consensus and with a lot of potential implications. Myself, I like the Hart move quite a bit, even if he is just another dinger hitter. Dinger hitters can be good! Especially when they don’t cost you much. In isolation, I’d like the Morrison move, too, because I’ll take potential for a young reliever. But it’s a strange fit for this team if this team really is going to hang on to both Morrison and Smoak going forward. Neither have hit very well, and the guy expected to play in the outfield isn’t real good at that. It’s bad for the defense, and how high is Morrison’s upside, really? Is this the best way to maximize the chances of winning in the next few years, before Cano turns the wrong corner?
This does open the door to in-season flexibility, in that, if Smoak struggles, the team could try Morrison at first and someone else in the outfield. In a sense, they have two simultaneous chances to find a young first baseman. It’s just that one of them won’t be playing first base out of the gate, if things stay as they are. That’s weird, and together, these moves do suggest the Mariners still highly value power and don’t highly value defense. That’s about how we thought of them, so it’s no surprise we are where we are now. But we could still definitely be worse off, if the Mariners, say, caved to Nelson Cruz’s lofty demands. The front-office philosophy led to a couple interesting players, and neither is expensive. It could be a lot worse. Things are sort of odd now, but the offseason’s far from over, and for the Mariners I think today was more good news than bad. A few more days like that and we could really have something.
Mariners Swap Carter Capps for Logan Morrison
If there was one Mariner I was pretty sure wasn’t going to be on the team next year, it was Carter Capps. The Mariners don’t like pitchers who give up home runs. Pretty much every HR prone pitcher they’ve had in the last few years has been dumped at first opportunity. They love hitting home runs, and they hate giving them up. Carter Capps gave up a lot of home runs, so he’s gone.
In return, they got Logan Morrison. Logan Morrison is Justin Smoak. I wrote up my thoughts on Morrison and his fit in Seattle over at FanGraphs. I’m okay with acquiring him if Smoak is going away, or if Morrison was acquired to flip in another move, but I hope he’s not being brought in to play the outfield. That would be bad. That would be more of the same bad as last year. Having 1B/DH types is fine if you play them at 1B/DH. No more 1B/DHs in the outfield please.
Mariners Sign Corey Hart; I Say Good Things About Mariners
In my off-season plan post from a few months back, I suggested that the Mariners sign Corey Hart to a one year contract to DH and play some first base. In explaining the proposal, I wrote this:
Speaking of thump against lefties, that brings us to Corey Hart. He’s coming off two knee surgeries, and spent all of 2013 on the disabled list, so while he’s said he wants to return to Milwaukee, spending a season as a DH and proving he can stay healthy is probably a better long term plan. Jack drafted Hart back in 2000 and clearly knows him well, and Hart would fit in well as a cheaper Kendrys Morales replacement. If he proves healthy enough to play the field, that gives you another option at first base in case Smoak doesn’t hit, and maybe he even gets a little time in the outfield, though I’d call that unlikely given his health issues. He’s a gamble, certainly, but the right-handed power is legitimate, and the Mariners could be a nice landing spot for Hart to prove that he’s ready to be an everyday player again.
Hart is, in some ways, not that different of a gamble that Michael Morse was a year ago. He’s the same type of hitter as Morse, or often-mentioned target Nelson Cruz, or the recently traded Mark Trumbo; an aggressive power hitter with mediocre contact rates who doesn’t really work the count. These guys are all pretty similar in terms of offensive value. To wit, here are their numbers from the last three seasons.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Trumbo | 1837 | 6% | 25% | 0.221 | 0.287 | 0.251 | 0.300 | 0.473 | 0.331 | 112 |
| Corey Hart | 1173 | 8% | 23% | 0.231 | 0.320 | 0.277 | 0.344 | 0.509 | 0.367 | 130 |
| Nelson Cruz | 1611 | 7% | 23% | 0.226 | 0.295 | 0.263 | 0.319 | 0.489 | 0.348 | 114 |
| Michael Morse | 1342 | 5% | 23% | 0.205 | 0.320 | 0.277 | 0.325 | 0.481 | 0.348 | 119 |
These guys are all basically the same kind of hitter, with the variation between them mostly being about health and defensive ability. Trumbo is probably the most valuable of the group, since he’s the youngest and healthiest, but he also just cost the Diamondbacks two pretty valuable trade chips. Cruz is asking for $75 million. The Mariners weren’t going back to the Michael Morse well after seeing that fail last year, but they basically found another version of the same skillset, which is clearly a skillset they like a lot.
This time, though, they’re getting this skillset for a low cost. Because of Hart’s health issues, he’s coming on a one year deal. While we don’t know the terms yet, a base salary around $10 million is probably a good bet, given that the Mariners had to outbid the Brewers and Hart suggested he’d take a discount to stay there. Maybe it will be $8 million or $12 million, but it is likely to be something in that range. Essentially, it’s like taking on Morse’s contract last winter, only doing so without giving up anything in return.
And, hopefully, Hart won’t be forced into the outfield like Morse was. The Mariners should see him as a DH, or potentially a first baseman if Justin Smoak doesn’t hit again. He wasn’t a terrible defender before the knees gave out, but he was never an asset with the glove and now he’s coming off surgeries on both knees. He turns 32 in March. It’s time to stop asking him to run around. Just let him hit, and if he feels really good, let him play some first base.
If the M’s use him that way, Hart could be a reasonably productive DH, probably matching what the team got from Kendrys Morales last year. Rather than overpaying to re-sign Morales, they get a right-handed power hitter that comes with no long term attachment. This is a much better move than re-signing Morales; the key, though, is to not also re-sign Morales and try to fit them both onto the same team by sticking Hart in the outfield. They tried that last year. They should not try that again.
For now, though, nice job by the front office to identify perhaps the best value source of the most overpriced asset on the market this winter. This is better than trading for Matt Kemp or Mark Trumbo, signing Nelson Cruz, or re-signing Kendrys Morales. There’s a good chance that Hart can give the Mariners most of what those guys would have, just without any of the long term costs of acquiring the bigger name.
David Price Doesn’t Want To Play For The Mariners
A few things, right away. Three of them. One, David Price doesn’t have a no-trade clause. He has no say in where he gets dealt, in the event that he does actually get dealt. Two, David Price on a long-term contract doesn’t necessarily provide that much in the way of surplus value. That is, Price will end up paid market rate, meaning he’d be ultra expensive for a long time. Three, trade negotiations don’t have to involve an extension, just like how the James Shields trade didn’t involve an extension. Trade for Price and you’re dealing for two years of arbitration eligibility. Those are details. This is the report to which the details belong:
Just saw David Price’s agent, Bo McKinnis, in lobby. Asked if Price would consider extension with #Mariners. Said no. MORE
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2013
Asked McKinnis if Price would consider extensions with other teams. Said yes. Asked which clubs. He declined to answer.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2013
That seems pretty clear. There are teams for which Price would like to play, and those are the teams with which he’d be willing to talk something long-term. The Mariners aren’t one of them, meaning any Price trade would presumably mean two years and subsequent compensation. Which is what we assumed, but anyway. Of course, Price could always change his mind. Maybe, if he played for the Mariners, he’d fall in love with Seattle, like so many people do. Maybe the Mariners will stop being a bad baseball team, and then they’ll be more appealing as a destination. But right now Price isn’t jazzed about Seattle, and that doesn’t make a trade to the M’s more likely. The Mariners probably don’t want to make a big deal of trading for a guy who’d rather be somewhere else.
Not that this trade has looked likely for a little while. Word is the Mariners don’t want to give up Taijuan Walker or James Paxton, and it wouldn’t make any sense for them to move Brad Miller or Mike Zunino. Nick Franklin is the expendable guy, and as talented as he is, the Rays probably have their hearts set on a stronger return. Maybe they’ll get it from Arizona or Los Angeles. I think you could make a good argument that Franklin could be the centerpiece of a fair deal, but I think the Mariners are looking in other places. I think they might actually realize Price isn’t the best thing they can do. I know, I’m a dreamer.
Incidentally, one notes one of the things the Robinson Cano acquisition was supposed to do is make people more likely to want to play for Seattle. Hasn’t worked on Price. Apparently didn’t work on a now-signed free agent. Cano was never going to be a magic solution, and any effect would be small, and an effect probably does exist, but really it has to be about winning. To be appealing, to players and to fans, the Mariners have to win. Cano should help toward that end, at least for some years, but it’ll be a team effort so to speak. You don’t become a destination overnight.
Anyway, to sum up: David Price thinks he’s better than this. For all I know he’s probably right. Doesn’t mean a trade can’t happen, and doesn’t mean Price couldn’t come to love the area and the organization, but whatever the odds were of a deal before, now they have to be just a little bit lower. You want players who want you. Or who at least want your money.
Taijuan Walker Will Not Be Traded Unless He Is
Robinson Cano is amazing! He might not be amazing in ten years, or five years, or even two years, and for all I know he’ll be a big pile of crap in 2014, but that probably won’t be the case because he’s been one of the best players in baseball for a long time and he’s still not old. Cano is amazing and the Mariners have him, and in the short-term that’s just terrific. To be honest with all you guys, though, I haven’t been able to enjoy the rush to the fullest extent, because getting Cano signals that the Mariners are going for it. The Mariners going for it signals that they’ll be sacrificing more long-term for the immediate, and I’m terrified of a Taijuan Walker trade. Getting Cano makes me afraid about Walker, so this from earlier is some welcome reassurance.
“I don’t have intentions of trading Taijuan,” Zduriencik said. “You listen to any opportunities that present themselves and you go into discussions with a lot of people. And his name will come up. Why wouldn’t it? As do a lot of our guys, quite frankly. But Taijuan is high profile because he’s rated our top prospect. So if I was a club out there, why wouldn’t I ask about Taijuan Walker? That would be a smart thing to do because you never know where it’s going to take you. But I have no intentions of trading him.”
Also, from Bill Shaikin:
Jack Z on Walker, rumored as part of Price trade package: “I expect Taijuan to be with us.”
That’s a pretty direct response to the recent rumors about Walker and David Price. Now, this is Zduriencik from last December 3:
“I don’t have a desire to trade these guys,” Zduriencik said. “I’d be tickled pink to continue this plan and let them all become big leaguers for us and see what they’re going to be. But you can’t shut the door on an opportunity to improve your club for the short term and the long term.”
From a week and a half later:
“And I think what you find is, everybody’s seeking pitchers. That is a real strength of ours. So there’s this balancing act that you put this thing together, it’s starting to look like it’s really going to be something good going forward, and then you get these phone calls that offer you a player that has one or two years of control, and he typically is a high-money player from another ballclub.
“And it’s tempting because you know you can make your big-league ballclub better right now. But the discipline is to say ‘no, we are going to continue along this road.'”
The natural and obvious counterpoint is that Zduriencik did indeed try to trade Walker, to the Diamondbacks, in a package for Justin Upton. But there are two things to remember. For one, Walker’s stock is considerably higher now than it was a winter ago. At that point he was coming off a near-five ERA in double-A. Now he’s got experience in the majors. For two, Upton would’ve come with three years of team control. That’s only one more year than Price’s two, but another way of saying that is 50% more than Price’s two, and Upton came with lower locked-in salaries. So it’s not the same thing.
Based on Zduriencik’s words from a year ago, he wouldn’t move Walker for a high-money player with two years of control, which describes Price. The concern is that the situation is obviously different, with the Mariners now targeting a shorter-term window. I don’t think Jack would say they’re abandoning the rebuilding plan, but they’re certainly looking to win right away. Changing priorities can mean changing ideas and strategies, but it’s still comforting to have Zduriencik go on record as saying he doesn’t want to move his top prospect. The pattern of behavior still suggests he wouldn’t do that for a one- or two-year player.
I can’t help but be reminded of two nuggets from recent history. In 2007, the Tigers declared Cameron Maybin untouchable, and then almost immediately included him in a package for Miguel Cabrera. More recently, Joe Maddon asserted that Matt Garza would pitch for the Rays a little before he was dealt to not-the-Rays. Organizations have changed their minds before, and organizations have deliberately misled the public before, and the point is that nothing is ever final. The Mariners could trade Taijuan Walker tonight. Maybe something will happen that causes them to change their mind. Maybe they don’t actually need to have their mind changed. Taijuan Walker won’t be traded, unless.
Thus the David Price rumors can’t be written off entirely. But, Jack could’ve said something along the lines of, you’re always listening, you’re willing to do anything to improve the ballclub. Just the other week he said something like that when it came to stretching the budget. Shortly thereafter, the team dropped a quarter of a billion dollars on Robinson Cano. What Jack chose to do was say he has no intentions of trading Taijuan Walker. That’s the right plan, at least until you start talking about an elite, cost-controlled talent coming back. For two years of almost anyone, Walker shouldn’t go. May Jack, in this instance, be telling the truth, and may he elect to stick with it. I choose not to over-analyze the use of the word “intentions”. Or “expect”. That’s for my own sanity.
And Now We Feel Better
We feel better because the Mariners didn’t actually literally bid against themselves.
The original author, Evan Grant:
more tongue in cheek, but they had bid 225/9 and nobody came close, then went 10/240
The reality is still that the Mariners were desperate, the reality is still that the Mariners were in a hurry to get this done before the winter meetings, and the reality is still that the Mariners blew away the Yankees, who seem to have had the only other offer, but thanks to the clarification we know the Mariners weren’t just bumbling clueless idiots. Now consider how ready you were to believe that they were bumbling clueless idiots.
Remember that happiness isn’t about good things. It’s about things that positively exceed our expectations. The clarification makes me happier, and that’s a little embarrassing.
Today In Maybe
I have no idea if this is actually true. If it is, or if it isn’t, I have no idea how often this kind of thing might happen to other organizations in other situations. But I think we can all agree that a big part of our fun with the baseball experience is laughing at the very team we hold most dear, so with that particular thought in mind, here’s Evan Grant:
By mid-day Friday, Seattle had heard that some team bid nine years and $225 million for Robinson Cano, so the Mariners upped their bid to $240 million and 10 years before apparently realizing the initial bid had come from themselves, too.
Zduriencik: You drive a hard bargain, Kingston.
Zduriencik: But I beat you in the end.
Kingston: haha
Zduriencik: haha
Cano’s agent: haha
Lincoln: why is this funny