Making A Splash
We have to begin with the necessary caveat that everything is situation-specific. Maybe Chris Davis wouldn’t be having one of the best offensive seasons of all time this year had the Mariners earlier picked him up for Brandon League. Maybe Troy Tulowitzki wouldn’t have blossomed into Troy Tulowitzki with Seattle. Maybe Jeff Clement and Chone Figgins would’ve been big assets somewhere else. Maybe anything. Life is complicated! My idea of heaven is having instant access to the results of countless controlled experiments, just to sate my own undying curiosity. But with that out of the way, let’s selectively highlight a few could’ve-been Mariners splashes, and then selectively highlight a few other guys who weren’t such splashes:
- Josh Hamilton: 0.4 WAR
- Jason Bay: 0.4
- Raul Ibanez: 0.8
- Prince Fielder: 0.7 WAR
- Justin Smoak: 1.0
- Justin Upton: 1.5 WAR
- Nick Franklin: 1.0 (partial season)
- Taijuan Walker: top prospect!
The Mariners strongly pursued Josh Hamilton, only to lose out to the Angels because the Angels looked better and guaranteed more money. Hamilton appears to have been this front office’s top priority. To date, in the first year of his contract, he’s been lustily booed at home, and he’s been out-done by old guys the Mariners picked up for a catchy song.
The Mariners may or may not have strongly pursued Prince Fielder, but they were in the mix, and a lot of fans were in love with the idea. Jack Zduriencik, of course, has his own unique relationship with Fielder, going back to their time in Milwaukee. Fielder was good last season, but so far in 2013, he’s been only fine, while Smoak has elevated his game and posted the higher WAR despite missing some time.
The Justin Upton rumors came after the Josh Hamilton rumors, and though we can’t really confirm anything, there were multiple reports that the Mariners tried to give the Diamondbacks Nick Franklin, Taijuan Walker, and more. If rumors are to be believed, the only reason Upton isn’t a Mariner right now is because he personally didn’t want to be. He got off to an amazing start in Atlanta, but he’s mostly struggled since, and the Mariners aren’t complaining about the guys they got to keep. Franklin’s been at least as good as Upton, filling an organizational hole, and Walker is one step away from making an impact in the major leagues.
This doesn’t count as a “study”, because this is hardly rigorous, and nothing’s conclusive. As before, now we still don’t know what Josh Hamilton might do next, and Prince Fielder is probably better than this, and Justin Upton is confusing. And we don’t know what any of those guys might do in a Mariners uniform. We don’t know and can’t know, until I die and go to my heaven and somehow preserve access to this blog’s editorial page. That information would be of little relevance, unless I were to die alarmingly soon. Hell, maybe Franklin regresses. Maybe Walker falls apart. Maybe anything, like I said in the intro.
But just going off those numbers, and taking them for what they are, had the Mariners made any of those big splashes, today they might not be in a better situation. They might be in a far worse one, depending on, say, how you feel about Hamilton’s contract and future. There was always a chance Hamilton would collapse. There was always a chance Upton wouldn’t figure things out on a consistent basis. There was always a chance Fielder would begin to decline sooner than desired. What we have is only a half-season, but still there are lessons.
Big splashes aren’t guarantees, no matter the magnitude. The only thing that’s guaranteed is that the team is going to be out a lot of resources. The hope is that the team receives equivalent or superior value in return. Big names are sexy, and people are easily excited by sexy moves, but that’s short-term thinking. A lot of the arguments are about short-term thinking. Sending a message to the fans? There might be an initial boost in mass attention, but the only way to sustain that is to win. Sending a message to the players? There might be an initial boost in roster enthusiasm, but the only way to sustain that is to win. Making a statement? I don’t even know what that means. Nobody wins anything for raising the most eyebrows. Baseball stops for a minute when someone makes a huge move, then it resumes, moving at the same speed. Eventually someone wins the World Series. That usually has to do with talent and health and good luck.
It’s not like the Mariners haven’t made actual splashes. Remember when the Mariners traded for Cliff Lee? That was awesome, until the team sucked a lot and it didn’t matter that Lee was around. Whatever messages are sent by a transaction last until the next baseball game is played, and then a reminder is issued that the thing that matters most, for everyone, is winning, winning as many games as you can, however you can, whoever the players might be. That’s the goal. That’s it. That’s it. It’s that simple. Build the best team you can. Maybe that involves making a huge splash, and the Mariners certainly don’t regret the guys they gave up for Lee, but they might’ve regretted the guys they might’ve given up for Upton. Usually, the team that wins a major sweepstakes wins by overpaying. Overpaying is usually bad, hence the “over-” part. You need to think short-term and long-term and efficiency always always always matters. It’s not about being cheap. On average, good teams spend more than bad teams. It’s about maximizing the payroll you set for yourself, and only sometimes are the biggest names actual values, especially after they reach free-agent age.
Maybe this is getting preachy, or maybe this is getting unnecessarily long. Do you think the Angels would give Josh Hamilton the same contract today that they gave him some months ago? Do you think the Angels fans now are thrilled to have him on the roster? Boy, that was a splash. That one really made headlines, really got people excited about the Angels’ prospects for a title. Hamilton right now is riding a hot streak, lifting his OBP all the way up to .288. His teammate, future Hall-of-Famer Albert Pujols, has a lower WAR than Kelly Shoppach. Miguel Cabrera on his own basically makes the case for making a splash and taking a chance, but the counter-examples are numerous and impossible to ignore.
The Mariners today aren’t in a wonderful situation. It’s not bad, and it could be worse. There’s nothing wrong with wishing that the team would have a higher payroll, but there’s more than one way to get that done. There’s concern about a potentially massive landslide on the Isla de La Palma, in the Canary Islands. Such an event could cause a big splash, and a catastrophic tsunami.
Brad Miller!
I’m sold.
No, he’s not going to keep this up, since as I type this, he has a 138 wRC+, which is six points higher than Ken Griffey Jr’s career mark of 132. 44 plate appearances don’t tell you anything about anyone, really. Remember how awesome Vernon Wells and Yuniesky Betancourt were back in April? Miller could still have a serious flaw that we just haven’t seen yet. Dustin Ackley is a constant reminder of that. Jumping to conclusions based on a few weeks of performance is simply not a good idea.
But, yeah, Brad Miller. He’s not really doing anything in Seattle that he didn’t do in the minors. He’s drawing walks, making enough contact, and hitting line drives. He’s slugging .487 without yet hitting his first Major League home run. He runs really well, and is going to add value on the bases. His defense hasn’t even been bad, much less horrifyingly unplayable.
If we were going to pick nits, the strikeout rate could be problematic in the long term, especially against left-handed pitchers. Guys who strike out a decent amount generally need to hit for power to offset the reduced number of balls in play, and Miller’s probably not going to be a big time power guy. There aren’t a ton of players who strike out 20% of the time, hit few home runs, and are still productive hitters. Miller’s faced almost entirely right-handed pitching so far, and he could be susceptible to posting some significant platoon splits, which would bring down his overall offensive numbers as a full-time player.
But as long as Miller can stick at shortstop, he doesn’t have to be a great hitter. An average hitter is a pretty spectacular shortstop as long as he can defend the position, and there are plenty of reasons to think that Miller could easily be that kind of average hitter while playing the position. If he pulls a Kyle Seager or Nick Franklin and hits for more power than you’d expect from his frame, being an above average hitter isn’t out of the question. He certainly hits the ball hard enough to envision a lot of doubles, and maybe some of those will eventually turn into home runs.
We’re dealing with less than two weeks of baseball games, so there’s still plenty of time for the Brad Miller experiment to go terribly wrong in the second half. And it might. Baseball is weird that way. But he hasn’t given us any reason to think a total collapse is likely, and he’s shown more than enough to think that he could be the long term answer at shortstop for the organization.
Justin Smoak‘s latest power surge and Raul Ibanez‘s hilarious age defying season have gotten more headlines, but replacing Brendan Ryan with Brad Miller is one of the primary reasons this offense has looked pretty good over the last few weeks. As I write this, Miller’s wOBA is 130 points higher than Ryan’s, which is basically the equivalent of replacing Justin Smoak with Miguel Cabrera. He’s going to regress, and he might even regress a lot, but Brad Miller is showing enough that I think the Mariners can plan on him starting at shortstop on Opening Day next year.
He might play himself out of that job with more exposure to big league pitching, or the defensive problems from his minor league days might reappear, but right now, Brad Miller looks like a real franchise building block.
Game 90, Red Sox at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Allen Webster, 7:10pm
Allen Webster was the major prospect moving from the Dodgers to the Red Sox in the blockbuster trade a year ago involving Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez. Rated as Boston’s #4 prospect heading into 2013, the righty has a mid-90s fastball and can touch 97-98, along with a slider, a curve and a change-up. Unlike, say, Brandon Maurer, Webster uses his change-up a ton, and will throw it to righties and lefties alike. In the minors, he was rumored to have a great breaking ball while the change was a work in progress, but in his very brief MLB career, he’s thrown a ton of changes, and it’s worked reasonably well. Given that, you’d assume he’d have even platoon splits. Unfortunately, like, say, Brandon Maurer, Webster’s been annihilated by lefty bats. Again, he hasn’t faced many batters in total, so splits just drive down the sample further, but the same was true of Maurer. In 56 plate appearances against southpaws, Webster’s yielded 18 hits, including five HRs, another five walks against only seven strikeouts. When your walk rate is creeping up on your home run rate, that’s a problem.
He’s got a three-quarter delivery, and his release point’s 2 – 2.5 feet towards third base, so lefties get a long look at the ball, but it’s by no means extreme – his delivery itself doesn’t scream “platoon splits” the way Carter Capps’ does. And the change-up really has been effective, even to lefties – he hasn’t racked up a lot of K’s despite using it a ton in two-strike counts, but he hasn’t been hit hard either. Instead, the problem’s been his fastball. Looking at his overall minor league splits, you may not have seen the splits problem coming. They’re completely unremarkable, the way Maurer’s were. It’s notable that his walk rate was always higher vs. lefties, and more telling in hindsight that his splits deteriorated in AAA. But this would be something cool to study – are there shared characteristics of pitchers without much of a history of splits vs. lower level hitters who get blasted by opposite-handed hitters in the bigs? And, would you be able to detect which samples of 50-100 batters were “real” and which were small sample weirdness?
The M’s are trotting out a lefty-heavy line-up more out of necessity than choice, but that’s fine – they’re in a good position to take another series against another good ballclub, and I’ll take that given how many losses we’ve been subjected to.
Line-up:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: All-Star Iwakuma
I mentioned Gohara, Paxton and Pike in yesterday’s preview, and they each pitched well. James Paxton threw his first professional shut-out, a five-hit, four-K CG gem in Tucson. Gohara went 5 shutout innings himself, giving up three hits, no walks and striking out *nine*. Pike’s outing was clearly a step behind the other two, which is saying something, as Pike went 5 IP with only an unearned run scoring. He walked four though, against five punchouts.
It’s not exactly a shock, but the Rainiers have placed Danny Hultzen on the DL again after he “couldn’t get loose” before his last start. Hopefully, he won’t miss as much time as he did the first time this happened, but the M’s have to be thinking about just shutting him down and trying again in winter ball or even next spring.
Yes, Nick Franklin Seems Familiar
In the table below, one of the players is 2013 Nick Franklin, while the other player is teammate 2013 Kyle Seager. Which is which? Why don’t you go ahead and look it up yourself, and then take a moment to reflect on the fact that you are apparently a profound and spectacular misser of points.
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 0.287 | 0.286 |
| OBP | 0.345 | 0.348 |
| SLG | 0.485 | 0.478 |
| ISO | 0.199 | 0.192 |
| BABIP | 0.324 | 0.316 |
| BB% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| K% | 19% | 17% |
| GB% | 32% | 36% |
| wOBA | 0.360 | 0.358 |
| wRC+ | 134 | 133 |
| O-Swing% | 22% | 25% |
| Z-Swing% | 58% | 57% |
| Swing% | 41% | 41% |
| Contact% | 84% | 83% |
Don’t know where it’s going from here, but most good novels start with good chapters.
Game 89, Red Sox at Mariners
King Felix vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm
Local boy Jon Lester faces the M’s ace in the best match-up the series tonight. Felix has been Felixing now for quite some time, staving off velocity loss, the occasional injury scare and wear-and-tear-related decline to post four consecutive excellent seasons, with a fifth half completed. These five years, 2009-2013, come after several more where he was merely ‘very good,’ of course. Jon Lester’s tenure as one of the best pitchers in the American League also began in 2013, but it’s well and truly over now, after a large step backwards in 2012 and stagnation in 2013. His fastball, which averaged 95mph in 2009, is now in the 93mph range, and the cutter he’s used as his outpitch is less effective than ever. Lester also uses a change and curve, and while the curve wasn’t bad early in his career, it’s clearly been his third- or fourth-pitch since 2009 or so.
None of this makes Lester a terrible pitcher. He’s still capable of getting strikeouts and grounders, and wasn’t as bad as his ERA made him look in 2012. Unlike many pitchers, Lester’s peak lasted more than a season or two, and he’s still adding value in the years following it. But barring a miraculous turnaround, it’s starting to look like Lester’s finished as an elite starter. It’s the sort of thing that makes you reflect once more about how strange and wonderful it is when a pitcher’s able to sustain greatness for a long period of time. Regression, age, attrition and even advanced scouting all pull pitchers back towards their less transcendent peers, and mostly succeed. A handful refuse, and through a combination of adaptation and talent, continue their run.
Line-up:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Bay, RF
7: Smoak, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Saunders, CF
SP: Felix Hernandez
Dustin Ackley gets the day off against a tough lefty…so that Mike Saunders can face him. Hmmm.
The M’s double play combination looks great, but of course it was about a month ago that M’s fans still held out hope that Dustin Ackley would reclaim his spot at 2nd and spend a decade getting on base and playing surprisingly good defense. In “it’s not just the Mariners” news, the Athletics DFA’d Adam Rosales and called up Grant Green, the ex-SS/ex-CF who moved to 2B and is hitting well in his second tour of the PCL. There are a lot of story lines in this – from Green finally finding a defensive home to the A’s middle infield depth (remember Hiroyuki Nakajima anyone?) shriveling – but the one I want to highlight is that the A’s finally gave up on their one-time 2B of the future, Jemile Weeks. Weeks debuted in 2011, just like Ackley. In his half-season, he posted a 110 wRC+ and if his walk rate and power were minimal, he looked to have well above-average contact skills. Weeks regressed so badly in 2012 that he was sent to the minors, and began 2013 there. A few weeks ago, both Weeks and Ackley were PCL 2Bs, trying to recapture their hitting stroke, and then watched as other prospects moved past them. And so, just like Ackley, Weeks is now attempting to learn center field.
Tyler Pike, Luiz Gohara and James Paxton highlight a prospect-rich day in the M’s minor leagues.
Jeremy Bonderman And The Harsh Reality
Jeremy Bonderman is a miracle. Not so much in the classic sense, not so much according to the definition of the term, but Jeremy Bonderman slipped off the major-league radar, and then he re-emerged. Pitchers aren’t supposed to do what Jeremy Bonderman did. Pitchers aren’t supposed to get hurt and disappear, then start throwing again and make it all the way back to the bigs out of effective retirement. And to do it with the local team was only a plus. Bonderman had some of his thunder stolen by Scott Kazmir, who’s another improbable story, but Bonderman was supposed to remain a part of baseball history, not a part of baseball’s present.
Now the Mariners have designated Bonderman for assignment, clearing room for Lucas Luetge and, probably, later, Erasmo Ramirez. Bonderman’s comeback is probably finished, and the Mariners had been making noise about how Ramirez wasn’t far off. Again healthy, Ramirez has earned a promotion. Bonderman earned a dismissal, posting some of the worst numbers in the league. Though his fastball got back into the 90s, Bonderman exits with baseball’s second-lowest strikeout rate, and as baseball’s only pitcher with more walks than whiffs. What Bonderman did was pitch again, in the majors. What he didn’t do was pitch consistently, reliably well. Fans will welcome Ramirez back, as he’s thought to be a part of both the present and the future. With every additional talented young player, this team becomes more and more interesting.
Bonderman, objectively, was one of baseball’s best stories, considering the long odds he faced. Good stories tend to be all about underdogs, about players emerging from unusual circumstances, and Bonderman hadn’t pitched since 2010. I’d like to say that I was all about giving Bonderman an extended chance. But I know I didn’t want him in the rotation, and I know I’m not disappointed by this latest news. Everyone loves an underdog, but in sports, that isn’t enough in and of itself.
Bonderman’s gone, and before him, Alex Liddi was shipped away. Liddi is the game’s first Italian, by nature and nurture. Tom Wilhelmsen left the game to travel and tend bar and get himself high, and it looks like now he might be re-claiming his familiar closing role after a period of struggles. Steve Delabar was a teacher in high school before he was a pitcher for the Mariners, which came before he was a pitcher for the Blue Jays. Incredible stories, all of theirs. But what we all feel more than the stories is the performance, and when the performances haven’t been good, the patience has worn thin. Revealed is a simple and binary truth.
Players are either for the team, or against it. Not literally, but players are either helping or hurting. And so follows the mass opinion. We all want to believe we’re noble, magnanimous, deep in character, but for at least most of us, sports are easy. They couldn’t be simpler. We like teams, and we like players who help those teams. We have considerably less patience for players who just get in the way. It matters little where those players might have come from.
Oh, people eat stories up. If there’s some player with a great story on another team, he’s easy to root for from afar. If there’s someone on the current team with an interesting background, and if he’s good, people will happily spread that story around, they’ll tell their friends all about it. We love to believe good players are more than just good players, and so we look for additional reasons to like them, and like them more. But they have to be good players first. That’s when it matters how they are what they are.
Think of a story like fresh maple syrup. Most people love syrup, but they wouldn’t eat it out of the jar. It’s a topping, it’s supplementary, and it works best on something that’s already good. Syrup can’t save a lousy brunch. Syrup can’t save a burnt pancake. It’ll make the pancake taste a little bit better, but no one’s going to want to have more of the pancake. Syrup alone won’t determine how much you care for a meal.
What’s best for the team is what’s best for us. What’s best for the team is winning, and as much as we want to think of ourselves as higher thinkers, winning’s the priority, winning over all else. With a winning team, you find more things to like about it. With a losing team, maybe there are the occasional bright spots, but what you want most is for the team to stop losing. I know I feel like the wrong level of human for not giving Jeremy Bonderman more support, given his background, but I don’t root for the Mariners because this guy escaped from the streets, or because this guy lost a sibling to illness. I root for them because I want them to win, and that makes me feel absurdly simple, but fandom is simple, as complicated as it is.
A compelling story is great, but its resonance is directly proportional to the quality of the player it’s attached to. This is the way in which most fans operate, and it’s one of those things that’s difficult to reflect on, because it demonstrates the silliness of the whole entire exercise. In theory we want sports to be about people, but we really want sports to be about winning, and then we’ll take the people we’re given and make the best of the assortment.
Jeremy Bonderman was a baseball miracle, and now that he’s gone, the Mariners should be a better team. And that Erasmo Ramirez? Rare player from Nicaragua, he is.
The Seattle Raul Ibanez’s Host the Boston Best Fans Evah
| MARINERS (39-49) | ΔMs | RED SOX (54-36) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -9.0 (18th) | 1.4 | 32.8 (5th) | Red Sox |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -14.2 (24th) | 2.6 | 30.0 (2nd) | Red Sox |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 9.1 (11th) | -2.0 | 19.5 (7th) | Red Sox |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 5.6 (9th) | 1.1 | -0.1 (18th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -8.5 (15th) | 3.1 | 82.3 (3rd) | RED SOX |
Jeremy Bonderman is no more a Mariner, having just been designated for assignment. Taking his roster spot for the time being is reliever Lucas Luetge, but he, or someone else from the bullpen, is sure to go shortly for Bonderman’s rotation replacement. Erasmo Ramirez is the obvious choice, but I suppose there are other feasible options like returning Blake Beavan to a starting role.
I was at Bonderman’s last home start, Sunday versus the Cubs. I haven’t attended many games this season, but somehow that one felt very typical of the 2013 Mariners. The Mariners, including Ibanez, hit some dingers, but three home runs directly resulted in only four runs scored and the Mariners batted 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position while the Cubs went 5-for-11. I ended up spending a decent amount of the middle innings just wandering around the stadium as the Mariners were getting worked over by Edwin Jackson. In the end, they made it exciting, but in the end, they also lost. It was a very fitting game.
Game 88, Mariners at Reds
Joe Saunders vs. Bronson Arroyo, 10:10am
I’ve learned to avoid the phrase “well, it can be worse than yesterday’s game” but hey – Bronson Arroyo gives up just as many long balls as Joe Saunders, so…go M’s?
I feel like I’ve written this about each of the Reds’ starters, but Arroyo’s fortunes are strongly tied to his HR rate. OK, *every* pitcher’s fortune is tied to his HR rate, but since Arroyo doesn’t strike many out and limits walks, it’s pretty the only thing with season-to-season variation for him. In 2011, he yielded an absurd 46 homers, and was therefore a replacement level pitcher. In 2012, he gave up 26, and was a bit above average. It’s got to be weird for a contending team to count on a guy throwing 88mph fastballs up in the zone and hoping they stay in the park, but hey, a contending team picked up Joe Saunders for the stretch run last year.
Arroyo’s a true junk baller, throwing 55-60% off-speed and breaking stuff, with a change and a curve thrown most often. He’s backed off his change-up usage since that awful 2011 season, when he gave up 15 HRs on the change-up alone. The curve’s been a bit better, but because his change isn’t great, he’s shown just massive platoon splits in his Reds’ career. On paper, or in pitch fx’s xml, Arroyo looks incredibly beatable, but then you look and he’s got a fairly good FIP and an ERA under 4 for the 2nd straight year at Great American Ballpark. He’s got to be one of the most frustrating pitchers to lose to, so don’t lose to him, M’s.
Now this is a very good line-up given the opponent:
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Ibanez, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Chavez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Ackley, CF
9: Joe Saunders
All lefties except Zunino. Not bad.
Tai Walker starts for Tacoma today, and Edwin Diaz is on the bump for Pulaski.
Arrivederci, Alex Liddi
About an hour after belatedly posting about trading international bonus pool slots, the Mariners decided to give us all an object lesson. Recently DFA’d 3B Alex Liddi’s been traded to Baltimore along with the M’s 3rd bonus pool slot in exchange for the Orioles’ 2nd slot. This bumps up the total bonus pool for the M’s, theoretically allowing them to grab a better prospect.
On the face of it, this is a poor return for the Italian. I know, I know, I overrated Liddi in part, so I *would* say that, wouldn’t I? But Eric Thames had similar contact issues and played worse defense at a position lower on the defensive spectrum, and he was DFA’d at the time of his trade to the exact same Orioles club – and he returned a very good org player in Ty Kelly. Kelly’s not exactly Nick Castellanos, but that seemed like a fair deal for both sides. In this case, Alex Liddi appears to have been traded for just shy of $75,000 dollars to spend on a Venezuelan 16 year old. We’re a few days past the anniversary of Felix Hernandez’s signing with the M’s, so it’s not like I’m categorically against signing Venezuelan 16 year olds, but c’mon. People always talk about trading someone for a bag of baseballs, but this return is crying out to be translated into bags of baseball terms.
The O’s are trying to collect the set of failed Mariner prospects, having picked up Trayvon Robinson in spring training (for Robert Andino), then grabbing Eric Thames a week or two ago (for Ty Kelly), and now Liddi (50 bags of 100 baseballs @ $15/ball). The AL East has been a popular destination for M’s cast-offs, with Shawn Kelley of the Yankees striking out nearly as many as Steve Delabar for Toronto, while Mike Carp enjoys a breakout season in Boston.
See you later, Alex Liddi. I know it was tough being a 3B in this org behind Kyle Seager, but, uh, you see who Baltimore’s got at 3B, right? Here’s hoping Machado moves back to SS when JJ Hardy’s contract is up and Liddi gets a chance to at least back up at 3B. The O’s could actually use more IF depth with Ryan Flaherty/Danny Valencia the current back-ups. And here’s hoping the M’s made this move with a particular prospect in mind, and that this is part of a calculated effort to sign someone they think is worth it. Given the minimal impact of this move on their bonus pool, I’d tend to doubt this interpretation, but who knows.
Game 87, Mariners at Reds
Jeremy Bonderman vs. Mat Latos, 4:10pm uh make that 1:10pm pacific
It’s been raining like crazy all morning in Cincinnati, but it may hold off long enough to get the game in. If they play, the M’s face right-hander Mat Latos, the ex-Padre who was solid in his first year in Cinci (and Great American Ballpark) in 2012, and is enjoying an even better 2013 season.
In spacious Petco Park, Latos used a good, hard four-seam fastball along with a blizzard of sliders. He mixed in the occasional change and curve, and also threw a sinker occasionally, but his bread and butter was a mid-90s four seamer with essentially zero horizontal movement. Since moving to the not-so-spacious GABP, he’s thrown quite a few more sinkers instead, and now the four-seamer is reserved mostly for RHBs. Latos’ fastball is really somewhat strange, as his extreme over-the-top delivery gives it slight arm-side movement. 99.9% of pitchers have glove-side run on their fastballs – more on sinkers, less on four-seamers – and that’s why pitches like cutters can be effective. Similar velocity but an opposite break is a good way to confuse hitters. Latos’ fastball has about 1″ of horizontal movement *away* from righties, which looks an awful lot like the 2″-3″ of horizontal movement his slider gets. The trade-off is that his over-the-top, old-school pitching machine delivery generates a lot of “rise,” or vertical movement – this can minimize platoon splits and occasionally generate more whiffs. His release point is essentially directly in the center of the plate, and well above 7′ – it’d be interesting to see if this straight-line-from-the-rubber-to-the-plate approach gets him more called strikes, as umpires don’t have to guess where a pitch coming in from the right or left side crossed the plate.*
Latos’ change-up isn’t a great pitch, so he uses a fair number of sliders to lefties as well. That’s part of the reason why, despite his over-the-top fastball, he’s always had normal platoon splits. His FB’s generated good results against lefties, but his sinker and change have not. He’s given up 5 HRs to lefties this year, all on the the sinker and change. Thanks to his slider, he’s been a very effective pitcher against lefties, with about 21% Ks since moving to Cincinnati, and a good walk rate. Like Mike Leake, a portion of his success this year is due to incremenetal improvement in his K:BB and a big improvement in the ever-volatile HR/FB rate, but Latos is legit: he’s got a BABIP over .300 and a FIP under 3, pitching is a tough park. The M’s have a challenge today, and they’ll be without Nick Franklin, who bunted a ball off of his knee in yesterday’s game and looked like he was moving in pain the rest of the game. Brad Miller slides to 2B and Brendan Ryan starts at SS.
1: Miller, 2B
2: Chavez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Saunders, LF
6: Zunino, C
7: Ackley, CF
8: Ryan, SS
9/SP: Bonderman
Didn’t end up making a separate post about it, so I should mention that the big international signing day, July 2nd, recently passed, and the M’s have signed a couple of Latin American prospects. Baseball America ranked OF/IF Greifer Andrade the #21 prospect eligible to sign this year, and the M’s signed the Venezuelan last week. The M’s also nabbed Dominican catcher Onil Pena for just under $400,000. Just as with the amateur draft, each team has a bonus pool – the amount they can spend to sign players, with fairly severe penalties for exceeding it. This year, the bonus pools are based in part on a team’s record in the previous year, so the Astros had a lot to spend and the Nats/Yanks having quite a bit less. In a new twist, the Collective Bargaining Agreement assigns values to slots within a team’s bonus pool (more like the draft) as opposed to an undifferentiated mass of money – and, importantly, allows teams to trade those slots. The Cubs made the first trade for international bonus space when they sent Scott Feldman to Baltimore for Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta. The cash coming to Chicago allowed them to get the top two international free agents available, OF Eloy Jimenez and SS Gleyber Torres. If you’re interested in the international market, you’re probably already reading Ben Badler’s coverage at BA -it’s outstanding. And don’t miss Dave’s post at Fangraphs on the precedent-setting Feldman deal.
Erasmo Ramirez got the win last night for Tacoma, but had one of his worst outings of the year in doing so. The Nicaraguan walked 6 in 5 1/3 IP, gave up 7 hits and lot of loud contact, and struck out 4. He left having surrendered 2 R, and that moved to 3 when Bobby LaFromboise gave up a HR to the first batter he faced. His command was off the whole night, and he looked like he didn’t trust his change-up, going with the breaking ball instead even to lefty hitters. Oh well. Brandon Maurer starts tonight for Tacoma at Salt Lake.
* This theory is hurt by Felix Hernandez’s history. Felix also throws a straight four-seam FB with very little horizontal movement, and he’s famously one of the most victimized pitchers out there – he gets an inordinate number of called balls on pitches located within the pitch fx strike zone. Some of that has to do with the crew of catchers the M’s have employed, and some of it has to do with his darting, devilish change-up and sinker.