This post was supposed to be out yesterday for the off-day, but I… I didn’t finish it. Darn. Let’s talk about various things, but only briefly. Let’s not linger, for baseball is always approaching. It is relentless, and it is wonderful.
1: You know what else is wonderful? This picture:
This is Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds in the AL West from the beginning of the year until May 11th, when Jeff Sullivan used it in this post at Fangraphs. Jeff mentions that this isn’t just Fangraphs’ odds overreacting to the Astros slow start, but because visuals are nice, here’s BP’s Playoff Odds through yesterday:
In both, the M’s started out with the second-highest odds behind Houston, and in both, the M’s passed the Astros as the most likely playoff team some time in April. At the other end of the division, the A’s and Angels have quickly fallen off the pace, and especially in BP’s version, they’ve got essentially no shot now. This is pretty remarkable, given that the teams seemed bunched around .500. That said, this kind of wholesale re-shuffling of the playoff odds is only possible *because* the teams started off so close together. With the teams’ true talent near .500, the first month or so of actual games – and the M’s actual, sizable lead over Houston – is crucial. Houston was the favorite not because the systems thought they were great, but that they had a consistent yet small advantage. Even if that were true, it’s not going to be enough at this point. The M’s hot start means something.
The interesting thing, at least to me, is Texas. They’re the only team sticking around with the M’s, but Fangraphs thought they’d be awful, or whatever passes for awful in the parity-stricken AL. Thus, even now, they haven’t passed the Astros in playoff odds. In BP’s version, they started out ahead of the A’s and Angels, and thus their hot start combined with a not-abysmal estimate of true talent means their playoff odds are second-highest in the division.
That Texas is in second right now doesn’t really shock me – I thought they’d be a tough team, and thought they were being overlooked before the season. What HAS surprised me is the degree to which the division’s separated itself so distinctly so early. Some of this is due to injury: the Angels suffered some bad luck in the spring, and it’s only accelerated since the season began. They’ve now lost their ace, Garrett Richards, for the season, and must turn to Brendan Ryan at SS due to Andrelton Simmons’ injuries. Oakland, though, is harder to understand. I don’t think anyone thought their rotation was going to carry them, but the A’s are giving up 5.17 runs per game, well above even the Angels’ 4.47, and the Astros’ 4.72. Some of this is bad luck; Sonny Gray won’t have an ERA of 6 the whole year, and Jesse Hahn’s already replaced some of the stragglers. But Sean Manaea was supposed to help, and he’s allowed 16 runs in 12 2/3 IP. Kendall Graveman wasn’t supposed to be an All-Star, but his FIP’s over 6 at this point. They’re the A’s, and they play in a cavern: their run prevention will improve, and improve markedly. But I think any estimate of their true talent needs to be revised downwards a bit. Sonny Gray isn’t bad, by any stretch, but he may not be a true #1 starter. Graveman seemed like a perfectly fine #4-5, but if he’s closer to replacement level than that, then the A’s are kind of sunk.
Meanwhile, the early returns on some of the M’s big gambles look pretty promising. I don’t know that I’d even put Nate Karns in the “gamble” category, but the fact that the M’s weren’t sure he’d make the rotation 7-8 weeks ago sounds hilarious now. Steve Cishek really WAS a gamble, an ex-closer with declining velocity and someone who’d been traded off by a go-nowhere Marlins club. Dae Ho Lee, too, was no guarantee to make the roster, and has been the kind of bench bat/spot starter the M’s simply haven’t had in years, and his presence allows the M’s some flexibility in dealing with Adam Lind’s struggles. The M’s have been the beneficiaries of some good breaks, but they’ve also shown some aptitude for finding value. They’re in the best position this franchise has been in for many, many years.
2: So perhaps THAT’S why the M’s decided that now was the time to pull the plug on Edwin Diaz as a starting pitcher. As I mentioned the other day, Diaz led all of AA in K-BB%, and if his change-up wasn’t well developed, it clearly wasn’t preventing him from missing bats. Moreover, it’s not like Diaz was struggling against opposite-handed hitters. In his career, Diaz has been better against lefties than righties. Last year, over two levels, Diaz allowed a .730 OPS to righties, but just a .585 mark to lefties. His OBP-against has been better against lefties *every year*. I’m not saying that this proves he’ll always have reverse splits, but it seems to suggest that he’s learned how to use his slider against lefties effectively. The flipside is that he’s not a guy who’s succeeded by dominating righties, which means it’s harder to assume he’d instantly become a great situational reliever.
The numbers we have are limited, of course, and may not prove a whole lot. Brandon Maurer didn’t show much in the way of platoon splits in the minors, and then looked completely defenseless against lefties as a big league starter. If the M’s foresee those kinds of problems, the move makes some sense. Diaz’s delivery is low-3/4, releasing the ball around 5 1/2 feet above the ground, and way off towards third base. That delivery screams platoon splits, as it should give lefties a long look at the ball. That minor league lefties haven’t learned how to exploit it doesn’t necessarily mean that big leaguers won’t. The numbers don’t identify Diaz as a clear reliever candidate, but his body type and arm angle might.
That said, I’ve never really been clear on why such a move helps. Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Zach Britton – these guys were all starters in the majors, and many other excellent relievers only moved to the pen when they’d failed as starters in the minors (or failed at hitting, in the case of Kenley Janson and Jason Motte). The M’s have a 20-day plan for Diaz that includes pitching on back-to-back days, and that’s the kind of thing that makes some sense to test months before you attempt it in the majors. But it seems like starting is a great way to build stamina, overall arm strength, and learning how read/attack hitters.
In general, I’m against letting the big club’s success drive player development goals and timelines. As pretty much the only high-ceiling pitching prospect in the M’s system, Diaz seemed too valuable for a role change in early May, particularly given how well he was pitching. I don’t think the M’s did Brandon Morrow any favors years ago by switching his role around, and I keep thinking about that experience when reading about Diaz. But while it’s only been a month and a half, the M’s player development group has earned a benefit of the doubt, at least a grudging one. Diaz has already improved his command, and it’s not insane to think he actually could help the big league club. If you change a prospect’s role because of an injury to a set-up man or two, that’s insane. If you accelerate a timeline because of an aromatic stew of injuries, a radically changed playoff picture and a big-league need, well, that’s still a bit crazy, but so is Steve Cishek: shut-down closer, so I’ma let you finish.
So what would Diaz look like as a reliever? Luckily, we got a preview during last year’s all-star break, when Diaz pitched out of the pen for the World team in the Futures Game. He gave up a dinger to Josh Bell, so the overall results weren’t great, but it afforded us a look at how his stuff plays in short stints, and how his pitches move. His velocity was excellent, sitting near 95, but touching higher. His slider looked pretty good as well, albeit without a ton of vertical break. Still, it’s his fastball that has me intrigued, and may be what got moved up the M’s timeline for him. BrooksBaseball categorizes it as a sinker, and it’s got impressive armside run (as you might expect from the whippy, low-3/4 angle) and very good sink for a pitch moving so fast.
Which relievers throw 95-97mph sinkers with 4″ of vertical movement? Well, that’s pretty much exactly what Zach Britton’s devastating sinker looks like, as Jeff Sullivan wrote about here. Now, that’s not to say Diaz has *pitched* like Britton or gotten batted ball results that look anything LIKE Britton’s. That in itself is something of a mystery to me, and something I hope this change in role might correct. I say that not because I think Diaz needs to pitch at the knees exclusively, but that his raw stuff could really play up if he tried to attack hitters the way Britton does. Obviously, it took Britton himself a long time to figure this out, and many years of getting annihilated as a starter, so I don’t think this is something that a 20-day plan can instill. But a change in approach is much easier to implement than an overhaul of mechanics or stuff.
Mechanically, Diaz and Britton are nothing alike. Britton’s much more over the top, which makes the horizontal run on his sinker *more* impressive. But given Diaz’s command, there’s no reason he couldn’t get ground balls when he needed to, and that’s something the M’s bullpen could actually use. The M’s bullpen currently ranks 5th in MLB in FB%. Cishek, Vincent, Nuno, Peralta and to a degree Benoit are all strongly fly-ball oriented, which means your GB guys are simply the ones without much of a big league track record: Mike Montgomery, Tony Zych and Mayckol Guaipe. Slotting Diaz in, particularly if he’s able to target his sinker a bit differently, could add a different dimension to the pen.
Just because Diaz throws a good sinker doesn’t mean he’s destined to become a great, Britton-esque reliever. If you just look at horizontal and vertical movement, there are other names that pop up as similar, including some whose mechanics look more like Diaz. Names like Trevor Gott, which is a name I’d not encountered before. There are no guarantees in life, but especially in pitching. That’s one of the reasons this move makes me nervous. That said, there are reasons to think this could work out.
3: #1 and #2 above are clearly linked. The M’s are doing well, they’re projected to be a contender, and that causes other things to happen, both within the organization and outside of it. How we as fans react to that depends a lot on our experience as M’s fans: where have we seen something like this before? What happened then? These are completely normal questions, almost hard-wired into the human brain, but that’s not to say they always lead to good answers. As M’s fans, we have seen a lot of bad things, and thus any precedent, anything that reminds you of something that came before is highly likely to be an unpleasant memory. How do you enjoy this ride when that keeps happening?
I saw this conversation with author David Rieff today about Rieff’s new book, “In Praise of Forgetting: Historical Memory and Its Ironies,” and thought that it applied rather well to being a fan. Rieff’s thesis is that the old nostrum that those who don’t remember the past are condemned to repeat it is obviously, conclusively false from an actual, empirical basis, and not all that convincing from a theoretical point of view. His solution is, as you can see by the title, to forget.
Baseball often seems like a very applied branch of history; it can seem to outsiders like it’s all tradition and memory, with a dash of Mike Trout and Aroldis Chapman thrown in to give it an athletic veneer. I don’t totally agree with that, but there are so many things about baseball, starting with its exhaustive documentation, that set it up for historical comparisons, for finding precedents, for connecting 2016 with 1986, 1956 and 1916. I think that’s kind of nice, but I’d be lying if I said it didn’t sometimes prevent you from getting swept up in something. Baseball kindly builds drama over a long season to such an extent that something like the 1995 season, or a playoff run like Kansas City’s in 2014 will absolutely overwhelm the “don’t forget about Brandon Morrow!” parts of the brain. They can shut them out entirely. But until you get there, the historical memory is going to keep pointing stuff out.
I think there’s been a lot of talk on twitter, and presumably on the radio, about how to react to this M’s team, and I’ve seen a lot of arguments that any argument from the past necessarily has no bearing on the present season. That just because Bill Bavasi was bad at his job doesn’t mean Jerry Dipoto has to be (my brain is telling me they both came from the Angels, and I’m telling myself to shut up). Or that just because Dustin Ackley flopped doesn’t mean, say, Ketel Marte has to. This is objectively true, of course, but I think what the pessimists are pointing to are patterns of behavior on the part of the org, not specific players. That is, we’ve seen overreactions to short bursts of success, and those things have hindered the club. This doesn’t mean that Jerry Dipoto’s going to trade Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez again. It just means that we’ve been thoroughly conditioned to worry.
That’s not fun, I know. But my long tenure with this team means I am *always* waiting for the other shoe to drop, and I think that any suggestion that shoes can’t keep dropping ignores the powerful, Adidas-laden supercell that’s parked itself over Seattle for the past 10 years. If you keep getting hit in the face every time you look up, you learn to lower your gaze. That’s perfect for an analytical fan like me, as I can dive into other things and not feel crushed by a year like 2015, which felt familiar, almost routine to me, and seemed to drive other M’s fans batty. Today, though, I’m dealing with the opposite problem, and it’s something I’m trying to think through. The first rule of analytics is that you don’t dump 10 years of data because “he really looked different in May,” so I don’t think I’m capable of shutting off the “this feels familiar, and by familiar I mean dangerous” comments from my brain. I’m not sure I’m capable of the “Active forgetting” that David Rieff (and Nietzche) talk about. Maybe it’s just a matter of finding the subtle distinctions and clutching to them like they’re dispositive. Maybe Dae-Ho Lee is the gateway drug, and I just need to hear a few more Korean HR calls. As far as problems go, this is probably one of the best to have, so I’m not really complaining. But complaining, or rather suffering, is so ingrained at this point that everything feels a bit weird. I can’t imagine, but really want to try, what the playoffs would feel like now.
Taijuan Walker vs. Chris Archer, 12:40pm
Early one today, as the M’s go for a sweep of Tampa Bay. The pitching match-up is a great one: Archer’s young, but unquestionably the ace of the Rays (good) staff, albeit one who finished 2015 in a bit of a slump, and is off to something of a slow start in 2016, too. Walker was the frustratingly inconsistent would-be star who got absolutely destroyed early in 2015, before starting to figure things out down the stretch. What we’ve seen from Walker thus far in 2016 has blown even our high expectations out of the water.
Archer was originally an Indians prospect, and while he had great stuff, his abysmal command held him back. After moving to the Cubs org, his walk rate improved a bit, but after walking 39 (and hitting 2) in his first 70 IP of AA, the Cubs moved him to Tampa in a deal for Matt Garza. Even in the Rays system, the walk rate was disconcertingly high, but Archer’s one of the rare guys whose control has continued to develop/improve at the big league level. So after solid seasons in 2013 and 2014, the Rays looked like they had a solid #2-#3 – a guy whose pure stuff limited runs and hits, but who didn’t miss enough bats to make the leap. In 2015, he greatly simplified his pitch mix. Out went the sinker that had been his primary fastball, and he replaced it with a blizzard of sliders. He had a change-up, but it was mostly a show pitch, used less than 10% of the time. He became a FB/SL guy, and it *worked*. Archer’s strikeouts spiked, and his walk rate stayed low as well. In the first half of 2015, he was one of baseball’s top starters, and that’s saying something considering the performances we saw last year. But more and more walks started creeping into the box score down the stretch, and they’re showing up in the early going this year as well.
In the first half last year, Archer’s K-Bb% was 24.2%. In the second half, that fell to 17.9%, and it’s only partially recovered to 18.8% thus far in 2016. Let’s be clear: those are still good numbers, and any team in baseball would take that from a starting pitcher. But any team in baseball would also ask why their 27-year old ace fell off from a level of performance he’d sustained for over 100 IP just last year. Everyone’s trying to figure this out, and the theories range from mechanical issues to wildness to dumb luck. I’d like to see the guy figure things out and get back to where he was a year ago, but I’d also like him to wait until after this game to do so.
Speaking of control and improved walk rates, Taijuan Walker’s on an incredible run right now. His BB/9 is under 1, and second in baseball only to Clayton Kershaw (among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 30 IP). That low walk rate means his K-BB% is 11th in the league, just ahead of Chris Sale. Encouragingly, he’s gotten much better pitching with men on – this was his achilles heel last season, when batters slashed .318/.361/.575 against him with men on. This year (and yeah, I know the sample’s tiny, let’s just move on), they’re hitting .236/.255/.321.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smith, RF
7: Lind, 1B
8: Iannetta, C
9: Martin, CF
The big news in the minors last night wasn’t any of the games, but rather the news that the M’s have decided to move SP Edwin Diaz, currently laying waste to the AA Southern League, to the bullpen. Jerry Dipoto mentioned that his change-up wasn’t really developing, but his FB/SL combo could be deadly in short stints (and we’ve already seen Diaz’s velo shoot up out of the bullpen in the Futures Game), and could even help the big league club this year. That’s nice, and I know the M’s bullpen has been hard hit by injuries, but it’s a bit tough to understand the urgency here. Diaz is 22, and is #1 at the AA level in K-BB%. As a starter. Sure, he could help the big league club this year out of the bullpen, but so will Joaquin Benoit and Tony Zych. The M’s bullpen has been very good, and while you’d always want more talent, more shut-down pitchers to turn to, it seems odd to say that Diaz can’t be a starter long-term when he’s excelling as a starter in AA at a young age. Hmmm.
Tacoma lost a lead late, but scored a run in the 10th to hold off Fresno 7-6. Cody Martin had a quality start. The two clubs face off again today at noon – no word on the Tacoma starter.
Jackson beat Birmingham 3-2. Dylan Unsworth got hit hard, but limited the runs, and Tyler O’Neill had 3 hits to pace the Generals offense. A hot streak from DJ Peterson is helping, too. Great to see that. Today, Andrew Kittredge gets the spot start, moving in from the bullpen as the Generals suddenly have a hole in the rotation, and he’s facing top prospect Carson Fulmer of Birimingham.
San Jose beat Bakersfield 4-3, as a four-run 5th doomed Anthony Misiewicz and the Blaze.
Clinton and Wisconsin play two today, with Art Warren and Zack Littell starting the games.
Wade Miley vs. Drew Smyly, 7:10pm
Sorry for the lack of posts here – just returned from vacation to watch Felix hold it together enough to pitch 7 strong against the Rays, and for Ketel Marte to have his best game as a professional. Let me bid all of you a happy belated Felix Day; I was encouraged by what I saw, though it’s still pretty clear Felix doesn’t yet have his royal command at his disposal. The two HBPs were particularly ugly, but Felix consistently missed his spots, especially with 2 strikes. That said, he was good enough to limit the Rays to 2 solo HRs, and the M”s defense ably handled the balls in play Felix allowed.
Last night felt like the first, clear, unambiguous, win for the M’s shift-happy ways. The M’s heavily shifted a number of Rays hitters, including guys pretty far from the ol’ David Ortiz/Adam Dunn template of “shiftable” hitters. Kevin Kiermaier was a great example – a guy who’s fast and doesn’t have a sky-high ground ball rate. It’s actually lower than average. Still, the combination of Kiermaier and Felix was one the M’s felt they could exploit, and they did: he grounded out in his first two trips against Felix, and hit a tailor-made DP ball the 2nd time that the M’s bungled into a FC. I’ve been thinking about the shift a lot recently, as Manny Acta’s tweeted a couple of times about how successful it’s been for the M’s. At the same time, though, analysts are starting to question why we’re not seeing more evidence of its utility now that teams are shifting 10X more than they did 5 years ago, or whatever the actual multiplier is. It’s gone from a very rare play, probably done by only a couple of teams, to a league-wide phenomenon. And yet BABIP is essentially unchanged. Teams wouldn’t DO it if it didn’t work, but, uh, how do we know it works?
Russell Carleton at BP had an interesting article a week ago arguing that it simply doesn’t work, and that a possible explanation is that pitchers pitch differently when they know their defense is shifted behind them. As a result, it’s possible that they give up, say, more home runs – they may be able to induce more GBs overall, but by sticking to smaller segments of the plate, or using specific pitches in specific locations, any “miss” may end up getting punished more severely than it would if they were pitching normally (read: more unpredictably). What we can see at a league-wide level says that BABIP is unchanged, and actually moving higher recently. If shifts don’t save enough hits to make a dent in BABIP, as this Rob Neyer tweet indicates, then…what? It seems to clearly limit singles to a certain set of players, but other than that, it all kind of washes out? I doubt that, given how enthusiastically teams have been adopting it, but I’d love to know more about how the M’s measure success. The most stunning thing I’ve learned in looking into this was that there’s no publicly available data about home runs when the defense is shifted. Fangraphs shows some stats with and without the shift, but the denominator is *balls in play*. Does K rate tank with the shift on? Do batters walk more? Fewer HRs, or nah? I have no idea. That seems like an easily addressed issue, but until then, what do these shift numbers mean?
Hey, so there’s a game today. Drew Smyly’s someone I’ve had an eye on for many years, since he was a promising hurler at AA for the Detroit Tigers org. Why did M’s fans suddenly care about Drew Smyly? Because the M’s and Tigers had just agreed on a deal that sent Doug Fister to Detroit in exchange for a package including Charlie Furbush and Caspar Wells, and a mystery prospect who’d be revealed later. Nick Castellanos was the big name, but most people assumed there was no chance he’d be thrown in. It came down to two pitchers: a reliever named Chance Ruffin, and the over-the-top starter, Drew Smyly. I have no idea if the M’s made the choice, or if Detroit decided to protect Smyly from poaching, but the M’s ended up with Ruffin, who retired a few years back, and the Tigers were able to use Smyly to land David Price.
Drew Smyly has missed a lot of time due to shoulder and other ailments, but when he’s toed the rubber for Tampa, he’s been an exceptional pitcher. As this Jeff Sullivan post details, Smyly’s racking up strikeouts at an impressive pace, especially for a guy with below-average velocity. Smyly struck out a lot of minor league hitters, but his ceiling always seemed limited both by his lack of top-shelf velocity and the fact that he didn’t have a big breaking ball. As I noted way back when he made his first start against Seattle in 2012 (holy crap I’ve been doing this a long time), he throws a cutter that features pretty much no discernable horizontal movement. Not 0″ of break, but it doesn’t look that different from his (straight) four-seam fastball. He has a slurvy curve/slider thing that likewise features basically no curving action whatsoever – his fastball gets 4+” of armside run, and his “curve” gets 2″ of armside run. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a curve that curves less, or slides less, depending on what you want to call the thing.
It hasn’t mattered at all. As Jeff’s article points out, the Rays got Smyly to throw his extreme-riseball four-seamer up in the zone, and batters have had trouble not only with *it*, but with everything else he throws, too. He gets whiff per swing rates of over 30% on his fastball, his cutter AND his curve. I said four years ago that he was going to need to develop a change, and while he has one, his entire career has been a rebuke to my by-the-book prediction of future problems with opposite-handed-hitters. Instead, his fastball’s turned into one of the game’s least likely weapons. It’s not just that his whiff rate is so high; the corollary’s actually more shocking to me. Batters have a hell of a time putting Smyly’s 90-91mph fastball in play. This year, batters have offered at 45% of his four-seam fastballs. They’ve taken another 38% for called strikes. When they swing, they come up empty on 32% of them. They foul off another 42%. Put it all together, and batters are putting 12% of his fastballs into play. Since the beginning of 2015, that figure is just 13%.
For some context on that, batters put 16% of Noah Syndergaard’s four-seamer in play (and over 20% on his sinker). Stephen Strasburg? About 18%. Andrew Miller? 15% last year, so hey, pretty close. The only pitcher I can find with a modicum of effort that has a lower BIP rate is Aroldis Chapman. That’s kind of insane. For starters who are in the same basic ballpark, the guy who’s the closest parallel is probably Marco Estrada, who’s at around 14% this year and was in the 16% range last season. Like Smyly, he’s got a four-seam with a ton of rise, and he’s not afraid to pitch up in the zone. While Estrada’s not getting quite as many whiffs with his heater, he’s getting even more foul balls this year, and he drew a ton of fouls last year as well.
An obvious question is: how to teams attack this? Can you pick up a high spin fastball on video and subtly adjust your swing in response? Or is adjusting your swing in response to each opposing starter a sure recipe for messed-up mechanics and a self-imposed slump? The M’s looked troubled at times by Matt Moore’s extreme *horizontal* movement – movement that seemingly allowed Moore to sneak strikes when non-Marte M’s took pitches middle-middle. Dae Ho Lee looked confused by a first-pitch center-cut fastball, and I think he did it to Kyle Seager as well. If Smyly leaves any middle-middle pitches hanging around the M’s need to attack them. They also have to be mindful of the fact that Smyly thrives by getting hitters to expand the strike zone upwards; limit the swings on pitches at eye level, fellas.
1: Marte, SS
2: Gutierrez, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Iannetta, C
6: Seager, DH
7: Lee, 1B
8: Sardinas, 3B
9: Martin, CF
Tacoma’s Stefen Romero and Chris Taylor have continued their hot streaks, which makes up for Mike Zunino going a bit cold over the past couple of weeks. The M’s split a four-game series at Albuquerque and now take on Fresno tonight behind Cody Martin.
Jackson finished up their own four-gamer with Jacksonville, and they too split the series. Jacksonville won an 18-inning contest on Friday. The Generals are in Birmingham now, and have Dylan Unsworth on the hill tonight. The South African righty’s started off the season well, limiting hits allowed and posting an ERA under 1 over his first five starts.
Bakersfield suffered the ignominy of being swept in a series to Inland Empire, the Angels’ affiliate and a team that came in 7-21. Inland Empire “features” Cuban 2B Roberto Baldoquin, the player that’s been Jerry Dipoto’s biggest miss in the international market. Baldoquin signed an $8m bonus a few years back, one of the highest bonuses ever for a bonus-pool player. Playing in the Cal League last year and this year, Baldoquin has compiled a .290 slugging percentage and a .262 OBP. Bakersfield hosts San Jose tonight.
Clinton won their series with Lake County 2-1, and won the opener of their series against ex-affiliate Wisconsin yesterday. They’ll face off with the Brewers affiliate today, with Art Warren on the mound opposite Dominican teen Marcos Diplan.
Speaking of the minors, the News Tribune’s Bob Dutton linked to a Baseball America report on minor league park factors that found Cheney Stadium was the most extreme home run park in the PCL. To say this is a counterintuitive finding is quite an understatement. For years, Tacoma’s been the preeminent pitcher’s park in the hitter-friendly PCL. Last year, though, teams hit more HRs in Tacoma than in any other park in AAA, and hit 39 more at home than were hit on the road. That’s…remarkable, and so strains what we know about places like Albuquerque and Las Vegas that I wonder what they did to account for schedule and players. Statcorner’s park factors show a very distinct gap between the factors for lefties (home run heaven) and righties (average-to-a-bit-below). Interestingly, Tacoma still grades out as a pitcher’s park because run scoring – despite the maybe a fluke, maybe not dingerfest last year – is still much lower there than in other PCL parks. At this point, it’s apparent that the remodel had a much bigger impact on HR/FB than I ever would’ve thought possible. I’m still betting the under on the park factor BA reported, and by a lot, but it’s clear Tacoma’s much more like an average park (and may in fact be aiding HRs now) than it was in the good ol’ days.
Wade Miley vs. Chris Devenski, 5:05pm
The M’s are in first place after a bizarre 9-8 win featuring Felix struggles, defensive miscues, and a whole lot of Dae-Ho Lee. The M’s came back against the A’s bullpen, the one I’d talked up before the series began. At least through the season’s first month, the M’s gang of retreads and never-weres > Oakland’s, and that’s saying something, considering how well Axford/Madson had pitched coming in.
The M’s now travel to Houston, the team whose lead in playoff odds has already evaporated, kind of like the Tyler-White-for-AL-ROY talk. There are a few Astros hitters who’ve gotten off to a slow start (Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena), but the biggest reason the Astros are 10-18 (after a two-game winning streak!) has been their pitching staff. By FIP, they’re 3rd worst in the AL, ahead of only their AL West rivals in Anaheim and Arlington. By ERA, they’re the absolute worst club in the league. Their projections were a lot better, and thus their rest-of-season runs-allowed per game is still at a fairly decent 4.34, or a full 0.6 runs *per game* better than what they’ve done so far. They’re essentially the AL version of the SF Giants, a team that was projected to be solid at run prevention, but has instead hemorrhaged runs instead.
The big problem has been their rotation. As we talked about earlier, both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are off to slow starts, and the back of the rotation hasn’t picked up the slack. The Astros’ starters have walked far more than anyone thought (et tu, Doug Fister?), given up lots of home runs, and then, to top it off, they’ve allowed the highest BABIP of any team in MLB (they’re fractionally ahead/behind, yes, the Giants). That’s a pretty dispiriting, Hieronymous Bosch-like triptych – it covers the fielding dependent as well as the “three true outcomes,” and it’s not limited to one or two guys. All of that’s the back story for why someone named Christopher Devenski is starting this game.
I like to think of myself as following the game quite closely. I’m familiar with most teams (especially an AL West team’s) prospects, and thanks to my love of the PCL, I know something about the depth a lot of teams have waiting in the wings. So it was something of a humbling experience the other day when I saw the probables for today’s game and drew a complete blank. “Devenski.” Who the hell is Devenski? Wojciechowski, sure. Last year, their rotation depth included Vince Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer (now pitching for 2016′s shockingly-ahead-of-schedule rebuilding club, Philadelphia), Asher Wojciechowski, Dan Straily, and Luis Cruz. Chris Devenski is a sign of just how many pitchers the Astros have lost since last summer. Not only are Velasquez and Oberholtzer in Philly, so is Mark Appel, another guy who logged a bunch of starts for the Astros’ AAA club last year. Sam Deduno left after an injury-plagued 2015. Scott Kazmir went to LA in free agency. Dan Straily saw more opportunity in Cincinnati, and is in the Reds rotation. Lance McCullers is hurt. One of the strengths of the Astros org has been their incredible depth. Well, they really need it now.
Devenski came into the year ranked around the 20-30th best prospect in the Astros system. Drafted by the White Sox, he came over to the Astros org way back in 2012, so he’s moved through the ranks in the Astros’ player development system. That’s probably a good thing, as Devenski was a 23rd round pick who struggled with the long ball and occasional control lapses in the Cal League and in AA. A low BABIP helped him post a nice ERA in AA in 2014, but he repeated the level in 2015 and made some further improvements. Of course, part of the reason his numbers looked better was that he was starting to get some relief appearances as well. Hence the projections of him as a swing-man, which is exactly the way the Astros have used him this year. He started the year in the ‘pen, then made a start 5 days ago. Given the slim pickings for starters, he’ll make another one today.
All of that makes him sound like a generic AAAA (or maybe AAA) retread, but the more I look at what he does, the more intriguing Devenski gets. For one, the reports of his meh fastball don’t match up with what he’s actually throwing now. His four-seamer averages 93-94, and he can touch 95 on occasion. Moreover, it’s got extreme vertical rise; it’s almost Chris Young-ish, albeit 9 mph faster. His best pitch coming up was always his change, and just looking at the movement on it, I can see why. Like his fastball, its armside run isn’t much to write home about, but the thing has devilish drop. By pitch fx, it looks like a (good) split-finger, albeit thrown more slowly (it’s averaging 82). He’s got a big, slow curve that’s been his primary breaking ball and also a rarely-used slider he’s saved for right-handed batters exclusively. He hasn’t thrown either breaker all that much, but again, just looking at movement, there’s a lot to like here. In particular, the gap between the huge vertical rise on his fastball and the drop on his change and, to a lesser extent, curve/slider seem like they could be an effective, confusing combination for batters. An over-the-top pitcher can get lots of vertical rise on their FB, but some of that backspin bleeds into their other stuff, too. James Paxton’s change doesn’t have a ton of drop, and neither does, say, Mike Montgomery’s. Clayton Kershaw and Chris Young both have *change-ups* with over 10″ of vertical rise, and are thus the best examples of this principle. Lance McCuller’s hard change, like Felix Hernandez’s, has similar vertical movement to Devenski’s, but it’s paired with a sinking, low-rise four-seam. Most pitchers have to choose between lower spin, sinking stuff, or high-spin, rising stuff. Devenski doesn’t, and while he may not know how to exploit that yet (and neither do I, to be clear), it’s nice to have.
As you might expect, that rising fastball and the HR problems he had in the minors are linked: Devenski’s never going to be a ground ball guy (though the change might be a GB pitch). He’s improved his control, and may be a decent 5th starter right now. Of course, the issue is going to be: can he miss enough bats to make up for the occasional dinger? So far, he has; his K rate isn’t ideal, but he’s been very lucky on his fly balls. The M’s are on an absolute long ball tear, though, so this’ll be a much tougher test for Devenski.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: Martin, CF
Dae Ho Lee’s big day might get him some more playing time. As many people pointed out, Lee’s two dingers came against *righties* – the guys Adam Lind was supposed to face. Devenski’s lack of platoon splits means the M’s shouldn’t be so doctrinaire about platoons, and Lee doesn’t seem to have any particular problems with righties. It all makes sense, but hey, welcome back to the line up, Adam Lind.
Tacoma beat Salt Lake 3-1 for the second straight day. This time, it was Joe Wieland’s turn to shut down the bees like a little-understood combination of fungus and mite parasitism. Wieland went 5 2/3, giving up just a solo HR. Boog Powell HR’d and doubled, and Chris Taylor doubled as well. Cody Martin starts today’s game against Salt Lake.
Jackson’s Brett Ash dominated Jacksonville’s Jake Esch in the Generals’ 11-6 win. Ash gave up an unearned run in 6 IP, and then the bullpen survived a shaky 8th and 9th to hold on. Tyler O’Neill and Zach Shank both had 3 hits for Jackson, and Steve Baron tripled (!). Dylan Unsworth gets the start tonight.
Bakersfield lost a wild one to Rancho Cucamonga, 12-10. The Blaze had a 6-0 lead after 2 innings, and an 8-6 lead after 6, but the Quakes scored 6 in the 7th to pull ahead. Osmer Morales gave up 5 runs without recording an out to take a particularly ugly loss. Jay Baum had three singles for Bakersfield, and Chantz Mack’s double was their only XBH. Tyler Herb starts tonight’s game. Herb was a 29th round pick out of Coastal Carolina, and the righty struggled along with everyone else last year in Clinton. But he’s breaking out thus far in the Cal league: in 24 IP, he’s given up just 14 hits and 7 walks while striking out 33. He gave up 174 hits in less than 140 IP last year in a much more pitching-friendly environment. The sky-high K rate is new, and also nice to see.
Clinton beat Fort Wayne 5-4 despite Art Warren’s first mediocre start. Warren gave up 4 runs in 4 IP, but the bullpen held the line, striking out 6 in 5 scoreless innings and yielding just 1 hit. Zack Littell starts tonight as the L-Kings open a series with Lake County. The Captains have been excellent thus far, compiling an 18-9 record. An Indians affiliate, Lake County’s bullpen includes Tacoma native Christian Meister, a one-time Green River CC product who the Indians drafted in the 23rd round last year not out of college, but after showcases at Driveline Baseball’s training facility. It’s an odd route to pro ball, but one which might become more common in the future.
King Felix vs. Sean Manaea, 12:35pm
Happy Felix Day! This Felix Day really feels like a joyous occasion, and not just a psychic band-aid applied to a decade’s worth of pain and frustration. Enjoy this.
Today’s match-up is one of the better ones of the young season. You’ve got His Royal Highness, nonchalantly stifling batters while writers still pen their obituaries for him because of this or that component-of-a-peripheral. And then you’ve got a really interesting prospect making his second start. As M’s fans, I think there’s a natural curiosity about the big prospects on rival clubs; we could be seeing this guy a lot over the next decade…how should we feel about that? It’s nice to do some oppo research while also basking in Felix’s light.
Manaea came out of nowhere (ok, it was actually Indiana State) in 2012 by putting up one of the most dominating Cape Cod League performances of all time. You sometimes wonder how much the wood bat leagues matter, and then you see a case like Manaea’s and it makes sense. After a good-not-great season in the Missouri Valley conference, Manaea struck out 85 and walked 7 in 51 2/3 IP and became the prohibitive favorite to go first overall in the next MLB draft. Instead, a slight injury and inconsistency marred his junior season; he still had excellent results, but his overall stuff just didn’t look like it did for Hyannis. Worse, there was some talk that he had shoulder discomfort in addition to a hip injury. Some teams still thought of him as a first-round talent, while other teams wouldn’t bite in the 3rd-4th round due to the risk. Even the teams that saw him as a potential value were scared off as much by his agent, Scott Boras, as his injuries. Manaea went from being the most famous Cape Cod pop-up prospect ever to being a case study in how teams value risk in the context of the brand new draft bonus pools.* Kansas City played a risky but ultimately successful play to get Manaea in the supplemental round by “reaching” for Hunter Dozier, a SS, at pick #8. They were able to sign Dozier to an underslot deal and give the proceeds to Manaea.
Unfortunately for the Royals, the inconsistency that marred his junior year for the ISU Sycamores followed him to pro baseball. He still missed tons of bats, but scouts were divided on everything from his future ceiling to his present velocity. Some reported 89-92, and others would say he was sitting 94-95. That’s a pretty big difference, and it seems like he’d alternate starts with great stuff with back-of-the-rotation offerings. He walked 4 in 4 starts in High-A in 2015, then walked 6 in just 7 IP in his first taste of AA. The Royals shipped him to Oakland in the Ben Zobrist deal – a clear case of a “both sides win” trade. The Athletics got the pitching depth they sorely needed (Sonny Gray’s the only drafted-by-Oakland starter to pitch for the A’s since 2013), the Royals got a piece of their Series-winning club. In 2016, Manaea’s stuff seemed to be playing up, and with injuries to Henderson Alvarez and the ineffectiveness of Eric Surkamp, the A’s called him up.
He’s got a low 3/4 delivery, and the lefty’s release point is shifted far towards 1st base. It’s not quite Chris Sale, but there are some similarities there. His fastball averaged 93-94 in his first MLB game, and it’s even closer to Sale in terms of movement than mechanics. His four-seam fastball gets 10-11″ of armside run – that’s Carson Smith’s-sinker, or late-period Randy Johnson level movement. Of course, armside run alone isn’t a predictor of success: I love this BP Pitch Fx leaderboard, because in between Sale and RJ sits ex-Tacoma Rainier standout and big-league…uh, NOT stand-out, Bobby Livingston. What made scouts drool on the Cape in 2012 though was Manaea’s slider. It’s thrown slower than you’d think – it’s more slurvy – and has good downward movement as a result. It may be a good pitch, but it’s just not in the same class as Chris Sale’s or even Carson Smith’s, as both pitches get much more horizontal break due to higher spin. Mark Rzepczynski’s slider’s kind of similar, actually.
Given the arm angle and his repertoire, I’d assume the M’s load up with right-handed bats today. Manaea’s splits haven’t been too prominent in the minors, but he’s probably not a really comfortable AB for many lefties. Given Seager’s success against Rzepczynski last night, though, I bet he’s not too worried about it.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Gutierrez, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Lee, 1B
9: Martin, CF
SP: THE KING
Donn Roach turned in his best performance since spring training, pitching the Rainiers to a 3-1 win over Salt Lake. Roach went 6 IP, giving up a run on 6 hits and no walks. David Rollins K’d 2 in an inning in relief, and he’s up to 12 2/3 IP on the year without a walk. Chris Taylor and Mike Zunino were both held hitless; the Bees will presumably pay for this today. The recently-outrighted Joe Wieland starts for Tacoma tonight.
Jackson kicks off their against JacksonVILLE today. The teams have agreed to extend the confusion around their names to the starting pitchers. Jake Esch starts for Jacksonville while Brett Ash starts for Jackson.
Bakersfield’s Andrew Moore worked past some early struggles and turned in a gem, going 7 IP, giving up 2 runs on 5 H and no walks while striking out *9*. Aaaand then the bullpen blew the 6-2 lead. Rancho scored 2 in the 8th off of Kody Kerski, then 3 in the 9th to walk it off against Kyle Schepel. Oh well. Anthony Misiewicz starts tonight.
Fort Wayne beat Clinton 4-2 despite giving the L-Kings 7 walks. The delightfully named Art Warren (I picture a really disorganized art supply store with lots of narrow passageways crammed with paints and charcoal pencils) starts for Clinton tonight. Warren’s been the L-Kings best starter, giving up just 2 earned runs over the course of his 4 starts and 23 1/3 innings. Warren was a 23rd round pick out of Ashland University in Ohio.
The M’s made a roster move yesterday, sending Tony Zych to the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis, which, while nothing’s ever certain, sounds pretty ominous. They called up ex-Ranger/Oriole righty Steve Johnson, who gave up Khris Davis’ HR in last night’s win. Johnson’s got a fairly straight, rising FB at 90mph, but as this piece in the Seattle Times mentions, it’s got some deceptiveness to it.
* This is why the 2013 Draft Preview spent more time talking about Manaea than the guys the M’s might actually draft. Still like going back to these previews; Chris Crawford’s stuff holds up pretty well, and you can’t say that about every “draft expert.” Chris is now the prospect guy at Baseball Prospectus, and has a new draft book out through BP.
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sonny Gray, 7:05pm
Before we get to today’s game, I’ve got a random observation about the still-young 2016 season. For the past 5 seasons or so, the rate at which batters make contact when they swing has been trending down. Contact % dipped under 80% first in 2012, and it’s lived in the 70s ever since. The explanations for that were many: teams signing players with contact issues if they could do damage on the pitches they DID hit. The ever-expanding strike zone. Finally, a nice, clean link: batters rate of swings at pitches outside the strike zone kept rising. The first year overall contact fell below 80% was the first year o-swing% topped 29%. From there, it just picked up speed: 29.3% in 2012, 30.1% in 2014, and 30.9% last year. This correlation between “bad” swings and whiffs was clearly correlated statistically and logically. It’s early, but 2016 is breaking the link between them.
I’ve talked about o-swing% rates several times already in these posts, and many of them show a dip in 2016. Well, that dip shows up for the league as a whole. We seemed destined to fly past the 31% mark in o-swing%, but instead, the league currently sits at 29.3%, right back where we were in 2012. Contact rate apparently hasn’t received the memo, as its free fall continues: after falling to 78.8% last year, it’s fallen nearly a full percentage point to 77.9%. What’s going on? If “bad” swings aren’t the cause of it, it stands to reason that “good” swings have been remarkably whiff-prone this year. That’s what Fangraphs’ pitch fx data show, as it happens. For the entire pitch fx era, the rate of contact for swings *at strikes* has been remarkably consistent. It bounces up and down in a very, very narrow range between 87% and 88%. In every year since pitch fx debuted in 2007. So, this year, zone-contact% stands at 85.8%, well over a full percentage point drop from 2015. What does this mean? I don’t know. A hunch is that teams and coaches are better at teaching discipline now; that instruction is undergoing something of revolution. I think that’s clearly a factor in the velocity gains pitchers are making, and we may be seeing some signs of a response from hitters.
It’s not a complete response, obviously, not with contact rates on strikes and overall still falling. But between the fact that MLB’s newest crop of youngsters is producing so well so young and a rebound in baseball’s walk rate (which had been dropping for a few years) and ISO, maybe we’re seeing the first fruits of better hitting instruction. It may be a shift in the kinds of players teams are drafting, signing and developing – a move towards Kris Bryant types who strike out but also know the strike zone. It may be an artifact of the velocity arms race, where pitchers don’t *need* to get batters to swing at low-and-away sliders when they can throw it past (some) hitters. Or it could be an April thing. O-swing rates were lower by a bit in April the past few years, but this zone-contact thing is new. We’ll see, I guess.
The M’s take on the A’s confusing ace, Sonny Gray. Gray was brilliant last year by ERA and fielding-dependent metrics, but seemed to be the product of insanely good luck by both FIP and batted ball/statcast-y measures. Tony Blengino and Eno Sarris both noted that Gray’s runs-allowed success has been fueled largely by his consistently low BABIP. This balls-in-play success didn’t seem to be backed up by some skill in inducing weaker contact, the way Dallas Keuchel’s and Jake Arrieta’s is. He gets plenty of ground balls, and many of them are pulled, but they’re not hit all that soft. Despite an infield with some defensive question marks, Gray’s success on ground balls continues: his BABIP-allowed on ground balls over his career is .202, and in 2016 – a year in which his GB% stands at a career high – it’s .208. That’s far better than the A’s as a team, which allow a .249 BABIP on grounders.
The M’s need to elevate the ball, as Gray’s been vulnerable when batters hit the ball in the air. Gray’s been great at inducing grounders, but the non-grounders have been hit remarkably hard. He’s also walking more batters. To tie it back to the opening, Gray’s not inducing as many out-of-zone swings in 2016, a fact which is probably related to the fact he’s throwing more fastballs this year than in the past. But when batters don’t chase, Gray’s command hasn’t been good enough to work his way back in the count. His walk rate in 2016 is 12.2%, up from 7.1% last year, and blowing away his previous high of 8.2% in 2014.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s O-swing% is still sky high, but it too has come down along with (seemingly) everyone else’s. That probably helps explain his uptick in walks and drop in Ks, but I don’t think it fully explains his .330 BABIP. For a guy who’s made a living running low BABIPs (just like Gray!), his bad luck in 2016 really sticks out. His split’s still working pretty well, so I don’t think that’s the issue. Instead, it seems that batters are swinging at his slider *more* and having the kind of success they’ve had from time to time throughout Kuma’s career. It’s a problem Kuma’s well aware of and one he’s been working on for years. That he hasn’t quite fixed it yet is both understandable and a bit concerning, but in general, I’m not too bothered when a pitcher’s 3rd or 4th pitch isn’t doing too well. If batters adjusted to his splitter, that’d be career threatening. If they’ve got a BABIP of .467 on his slider is a mixture of bad command, bad movement, and a whole lot of bad luck.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Marte, SS
8: Clevenger, C
9: Martin, CF
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
Adrian Sampson tossed 7 brilliant innings as the Rainiers downed Salt Lake 6-1. Chris Taylor and Ed Lucas homered for Tacoma. Taylor’s season line is up to .333/.412/.556, and he’s reached base in 22 of his 23 games this year. Mike Zunino went 0-4, but his season line is even better: .378/.416/.756. The back end of the Tacoma rotation has been brutal thus far, which is why Tacoma is “only” 13-11 despite Zunino/Taylor/Stefen Romero’s hot starts. Donn Roach looks to change that tonight.
Jackson got rained out yesterday, and they’re traveling today.
Bakersfield’s late comeback fell just short, and they lost to Rancho Cucamonga 4-3. Eddie Campbell didn’t have it, walking 7 and giving up 4 runs in 3 1/3 IP, but the bullpen kept the Blaze in it while the hitters tried to figure out Josh Sborz. The Blaze scored a run in the sixth, seventh and eighth, but couldn’t complete the comeback in the ninth. Andrew Moore starts for Bakersfield tonight.
Clinton got a great start from Nick Wells, the lefty prospect who’d struggled mightily in April, but lost a heartbreaker 3-2. Wells went 6, giving up 1 R on 5 H and 2 BBs, and Darin Gillies followed with 2 scoreless innings in relief. Gillies came back out for the 9th, attempting a 3-IP save, but gave up a 2-run HR to Brad Zunica, and that was the difference in the game. Of note: the Lumberkings scored their two runs off of reliever Enyel De Los Santos, a righty you may remember as a member of the Everett AquaSox and the return for Joaquin Benoit this offseason. Lukas Schiraldi faces Fort Wayne today in an early getaway day game.
Nate Karns vs. Kendall Graveman, 7:05pm
Sorry for missing a few games there; I went camping with the family down by Mt. St Helens.
The M’s make their initial visit to Oakland this year, trying to maintain their string of five consecutive series won. The A’s swept the M’s in three at Safeco in early April, but the M’s have clawed their way above the A’s in the standings, and sit a half-game behind Texas for the divisional lead. Now that we’ve seen a few more games, we have a better sense, I think, of who the A’s are and what they do well. Looking at team stats, it’s something of a miracle that the A’s are .500. The A’s have the worst walk rate in MLB, the worst defense in MLB, and rank 28th in BABIP (just ahead of the M’s, who remain in 30th). One of their best paid players, DH Billy Butler, is now a bench bat. After a second consecutive below-replacement level season last year, Butler’s off to another poor start and remains one of the easiest players in the game to defend. All told, their position players rank last in the American League, ahead of only a few of the strenuously rebuilding NL clubs.
The problem’s particularly acute in the outfield, where the A’s attempted to add power by bringing in Khris Davis to fit in around Billy Burns, Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick and last year’s Rule 5 find, Mark Canha. It’s early, of course, but the results haven’t been encouraging: Davis and Canha are off to abysmal starts, with Canha striking out 17 times without a walk in 35 PAs, and Davis sitting on a .263 OBP in full-time play. Because neither Canha or Davis are particularly good against LHP (despite being righties), the club’s struggled against lefties, as they hurt Reddick’s (and Stephen Vogt’s) production. A year after grabbing a low-power, buy-low first baseman in Ike Davis, the A’s brought in Yonder Alonso, who’s been their worst every day player. Chris Coghlan had an 11% walk rate last year for Chicago, but he’s off to a slow start, and seen his walk rate nearly cut in half. They’re not this bad, of course, and some regression in BABIP might help them, but they looked like a questionable group on paper, and they’ve done nothing to assuage A’s fans worries thus far.
Their rotation has been a mixed bag, with Rich Hill continuing his utterly remarkable comeback from years of being terrible on the one hand and Chris Bassitt and Eric Surkamp turning in replacement-level performance. In the middle sit Sonny Gray, who’s suffered from some uncharacteristic control lapses this year, and today’s starter, Kendall Graveman. It all adds up to one of the more interesting-yet-completely-average rotations in baseball, especially when you add in the recently-promoted prospect Sean Manaea. They haven’t quite gotten there yet, but unlike with the line-up, you can see how this group could become a solidly above-average unit, especially if Jesse Hahn’s weird bout of awfulness really is over.
So, if their position players have been awful and their rotation’s under-performed, how are they 13-13? Because baseball enjoys a good laugh at the hubris of those who attempt to ferret out its secrets, the answer is, of course, their bullpen. There’s a famous quote attributed mostly to Marx (though the form in which it’s typically used probably came from Engels) that says that history repeats itself – first as tragedy, and then as farce. I keep thinking about that when I look at the fact that the ATHLETICS lead the majors in bullpen WPA *by a mile*. In 2015, the A’s bullpen was historically futile, landing in last place by WPA, nearly 5 full wins back of 29th place. The gap between 30th-29th was as large as the gap between 29th-17th place.
What’s funniest is that the A’s have accomplished this by slaying another old sabermetric sacred cow: that the one thing you needed to avoid were relievers who’d acquired the “veteran closer” label. Relievers were all overpaid, according to this line of thinking, but teams like the A’s had figured out how to bring in unheralded relievers, watch them succeed, and then let other teams pay through the nose for them on the free agent market. The smart clubs don’t bid on, I don’t know, Jonathan Papelbon, they convert a 1B into Sean Doolittle. They stash great relievers in set-up roles so the market doesn’t reflect their value. The A’s, however, brought in two ex-closers, Ryan Madson and John Axford, and got their own ex-closer, Sean Doolittle, back from injury. What do you do with three ex-closers? Abolish the closer role, of course. The A’s lead the majors in saves despite not really having a closer: they use match-ups and whoever’s fresh to determine who pitches the 7th and who pitches the 9th. Madson’s received the most work in save situations, but Doolittle’s got 2, and it’s Axford who’s been used in the highest-leverage spots. The A’s created a solid bullpen out of waiver-wire cast-offs and ex-position players only to watch it go supernova last year. This year, they’ve brought in cast-offs with a better pedigree, and built one of the strangest good bullpens I can remember. In the process, they’ve shot another hole in the idea that bullpen success can be reliably predicted. John Axford’s WPA dominates Craig Kimbrel’s. All bullpens may be farcical, but the A’s are a particularly funny one.
Today’s starter, Kendall Graveman, was one of the low-ceiling, high-floor pitching prospects the A’s acquired in the Josh Donaldson
disaster trade. Graveman has never racked up strikeouts, but uses a low-spin sinker and cutter to get plenty of ground ball contact. He’s never been a hard thrower, but he looks to have added about 1 MPH to his fastball this year, going from about 90-91 last year to 92 so far in 2016. His sinker is still his most-used pitch, but he’s using it slightly less thus far in favor of his cutter and curve. The cutter is slider-y, with some glove side movement at about 87 MPH. He uses it like a slider, too, keeping it down and away from right-handers. With a sinker/slider profile, you might think Graveman would have some platoon split problems, but in his brief career, he’s handled lefties much better than righties. Indeed it’s righties that continue to trouble him, as they’ve hit 14 of the 20 HRs he’s given up (he’s faced an essentially equal number of RHBs and LHBs). That’s too many HRs for someone who yields so few fly balls, and it’s a problem for someone who doesn’t miss many bats. To be fair, Graveman is “only” a 4th starter, and hasn’t been too bad in that role, but the “low ceiling” part of his scouting report remains pretty evident. He’s alternated some good starts and bad ones this year, with a 3 HR drubbing by the Tigers balanced with an 8 K win over the Yankees in the Bronx.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: Martin, CF
Will Karns continue to ride his curve ball? This is one of the more anticipated starts of Karns’ career, I’d think – if Karns is able to make the leap not to an ace, but a dependable 2-3 starter, the M’s start to look a bit different, and a bit more formidable.
The Rainiers blasted Las Vegas 12-1 last night behind another great outing from James Paxton. The lefty gave up a HR in the first, then limited the 51s to just four other hits over 6 IP, striking out 7 and walking 1. The Rainiers open a series with Salt Lake tonight; Adrian Sampson’s on the mound. Game time’s 6:05 at Cheney, and the weather is perfect for a game and a beer.
Jackson beat Mobile 6-4 as Tyler O’Neill homered in his second straight game. He’s up to 6 on the year, pushing his season line to .313/.383/.578. The two clubs were rained out in today’s travel day game.
Bakersfield got a solid start from Tyler Pike and a 4 run 5th inning, then held on for 6-5 win. Bakersfield’s line-up isn’t clicking quite yet, managing a sub .700 OPS as a team, but the league as a whole has been uncharacteristically punchless. Bakersfield’s .699 OPS is in the middle of the Cal League pack thus far, which is nice to see after they finished as the worst offensive club in the league last year. Today, Eddie Campbell leads the Blaze to Rancho Cucamonga to take on ex-UVA pitcher Josh Sborz.
Clinton completed the organizational sweep with an 8-4 win over Dayton. Kyle Wilcox had his best outing of the year, going 6 shutout innings allowing just 2 hits and, crucially, 1 walk. Matt Walker pitched the 7th, giving up a run, then ran into more trouble in the 8th, giving up 3 more runs without recording an out. The L-Kings still had a 6-4 lead, then added two more in the 9th. Clinton starts a series tonight against Fort Wayne, with Nick Wells on the mound. Starting for the Tin Caps is Jacob Nix, a Padres prospect, and a pitcher the Astros drafted and agreed to an over-slot bonus with back in 2014. When Brady Aiken didn’t agree on the Astros underslot deal, the Astros lost a huge chunk of their bonus pool, meaning they could no longer honor their agreements with Nix and another pitcher, Mac Marshall. Nix went in the 3rd round to San Diego, and signed a deal for about $600k less than the reported deal he had with Houston.
King Felix vs. Kris Medlen, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day! Sorry for the site issues earlier – glad it’s resolved, and thanks for all of the questions via twitter and elsewhere. You all noticed before I did, which speaks to some poor management on my part, but also to y’all’s interest which I continue to be
baffled by extremely thankful for.
So, every prediction had the AL West tightly bunched, with the Astros slightly less mediocre than their rivals. If it’s true that the true talent of the teams is really, really close, that makes it less likely that one team is just going to run away with the division, and it also means that any small hot (or cold) streak matters much more to a team’s playoff odds. If true talent is tightly bunched around .500, then any bit of variance is going to play a big role in determining the winner. What we’ve seen thus far is a division that’s been every bit as bunched up as Fangraphs/BP forecasted… with one exception. Yes, it’s absurdly early, and yes, they still scare me a bit, but the Astros now have to play .532 ball (that’s 86 wins over a season) just to creep back to 81-81. It really helps that even now no one’s forecasted to GET to 86 wins, but it also means that their first big winning streak only gets them back to the starting point.
The biggest beneficiaries of this, of course, are the M’s, the preseason #2 club. The M’s playoff odds are up a few points from opening day not because of anything they’ve done, but because they’re now the favorite by default. The projections still see them as a .500 club, but suddenly, .500 ball has a better chance of winning this thing. In the Central, the Royals have helped themselves out too, and benefited from the Indians’ poor start. Of course, the projections have famously thought the Royals were terrible for several years, and thought they’d be terrible this year, but it certainly helps that the Indians haven’t raced out ahead. The team that HAS is Chicago, who’s projected to play .500 ball the rest of the way and hit 86 wins or so, around where the Indians are projected to finish. The AL Central has seen more teams deviate from their projections, but that division too was supposed to be very even. The result is that it’s the AL that’s seen all of the big changes in playoff odds, while variance means a bit less in the NL, where projections still see big differences in team talent levels.
The Royals have been a balanced team, perhaps more so than last year when their line-up and bullpen essentially carried a poor starting rotation. This year, their line-up is again unspectacular but solid, and gets a value boost from their baserunning and defense. Lorenzo Cain has been oddly ineffective thus far, but that’s been balanced by Mike Moustakas’ sudden power surge. Their pitching staff is an odd mix. They grade out fairly well overall, but as you might expect when most starters have pitched 4 times, the individual results are all over the map. Yes, they still have a starter who’s oddly destroying his FIP, but it’s not Chris Young, whose ERA is much WORSE than his FIP, but Ian Kennedy. Yordano Ventura’s been solid, but tonight’s starter, ex-Brave Kris Medlen, has been shaky.
Medlen seemingly came out of nowhere in 2012 to go on what we’d now call a Kershaw-like, or to be terribly current, Rich Hill-ian string of starts. He finished the year 10-1 with a sparkly ERA of 1.57 in 138 IP. He spent the first half of the year in the pen, and his true breakout came after a move to the rotation. In 83 IP, Medlen struck out 84, walked 10, and gave up 9 earned runs, for an ERA of 0.97. Sure, his FIP was worse, but Medlen’s sinker/change-up game looked dominant. He wasn’t quite as good the next year, but the Braves looked to have a cost-controlled, effective starter for years. Unfortunately, his UCL snapped, requiring Tommy John surgery, so he wasn’t able to pitch in 2014. As his rehab progressed, the Braves’ decided to completely overhaul their franchise in a way that they say is totally not a rebuild, but is self-evidently a rebuild, and thus they let Medlen go. He signed on with KC and pitched in 58 IP last year.
In 2012, his change-up was his out-pitch back in 2012, getting swings 2/3 of the time, and getting whiffs on over 40% of those swings. The change and his great sinker, with solid arm-side run and very different movement from his rising four-seamer, helped him get plenty of grounders, too. The post-rehab Medlen doesn’t really have swing-and-miss stuff anymore. He throws his change-up much less than he used to, and in its place is a pitch he didn’t even throw back in 2012 – a slider-like cutter. It’s thrown with the same speed as the change – around 85 – and has impressive vertical drop. It *looks* like a good pitch, and he uses it as a strikeout pitch to righties, but it hasn’t brought back the glory days of 2012. This season, Medlen’s out-of-zone swing rate has collapsed, which is a big reason he’s walked 11 in 15 innings. He pitched around walks in his first two games, but he’s coming off a poor game against Baltimore in which he gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 IP. There’s still the makings of a solid #4-5 starter here, but it hasn’t quite come together for him. I like the *idea* of the change/cutter combo, but he obviously hasn’t quite figured out how to make it work yet.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH (yussss)
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: Martin, CF
SP: El Rey
Tacoma and Las Vegas played through the rare, rare desert rain yesterday before the game was called after 5. Apparently, Las Vegas doesn’t even own a tarp, so the infield got pretty drenched as a series of showers rolled over Cashman field. Donn Roach continued to demonstrate spring training stats’ lack of predictive power by turning in another awful start, giving up 8 runs on 10 hits in 2 1/3 IP. Chris Taylor and Mike Baxted had the only R’s hits. Joe Wieland starts today against longtime Mets’ prospect Rafael Montero.
Jackson topped Mobile 6-3 behind a great start from Dylan Unsworth, who gave up a run in 6 2/3 IP. They beat D’Backs prospect Zack Godley who dominated the club last year. Tyler O’Neill walked and doubled, while Tim Lopes walked and singled. Jackson and Mobile were rained out today.
Bakersfield lost another hearbreaker, giving up a run in the 8th and then two in the 9th to lose 5-4 to Lancaster. Ramon Morla blew his 2nd save opportunity, which kind of obscured Andrew Moore’s solid start. The OSU product struck out 8 and gave up just 2 runs in 6 IP, but oddly had three walks. That’s 7 on the year in about 30 IP; he gave up 2 last year in 39 IP for Everett. Still, he’s been hard to hit and he’s pitched well in a very difficult league. Anthony Misiewicz starts for the Blaze today.
Clinton beat Bowling Green 6-3. Lukas Schiraldi pitched around 6 walks in 4 2/3 IP, and then the Lumberkings held on after reliever Nick Kiel gave up 3 runs in one inning. Dalton Kelly continued his hot start with a single and three walks. Art Warren starts for Clinton today as they start a series with 5-16 Dayton.
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Collin McHugh, 7:10pm
The M’s go for a three-game sweep of the preseason divisional favorites tonight. A day after Taijuan Walker’s electrifying performance against the Astros, Nate Karns nearly one-upped him, going 7 shutout innings and yielding just 2 hits. Karns came into the game getting plenty of whiffs on his change-up, and after mixing cambios and curve balls through the first three innings, he and Chris Iannetta noticed something and shifted to the curve nearly exclusively. Karns ended up throwing an astonishing 53 curves on the night, or one less than Rich Hill threw in his own dominant performance in Seattle on April 9th. By the 6th/7th IP, the Astros must’ve known it was coming, but couldn’t hit it – after struggling a bit with his command, Karns found a groove and the Astros simply weren’t able to get him out of it. Here’s a graph of his usage – the first inning’s at the left, and it goes chronologically until the 7th IP on the far right:
He only had 6 Ks which kind of understates how great Karns looked, but fortunately we have other metrics. Linear weights measure the change in the game state after each pitch – if it’s a ball, that’s a fraction of a run deducted from the pitcher, and if it goes for a strike, he’ll be awarded a fraction. Hits are bad, obviously, and anything that helps tilt the balance in favor of the pitcher is good, whether it’s a foul, a whiff, or a pop-up. It’s not a perfect tool, as an 0-2 chase slider that’s taken for a ball isn’t necessarily “bad” and fastballs have an uphill climb to rate well, given they’re often thrown when a pitcher’s behind in the count, and thus go for walks or for hard-hit balls. Still, since it’s measured by pitch type, it gives you ONE way to see what a pitcher’s most effective pitch was for the day. Last night, Karns’ curveball was 2.86 runs better than average. That’s a pretty astounding level for one pitch. In Hill’s mastery of the M’s, his curveball rated below average because the M’s actually managed to knock some base hits on it when they weren’t frozen by it, a fact that makes me question the metric more than Hill. But those games are good illustrations of HOW you’d score well by linear weights. Do you mix 4 pitches well, like Kershaw or Felix? Eh, probably pretty tough. You almost need to be a two-pitch pitcher and throw some breaking ball a ton; it’s a counting stat after all, not a rate stat.
Perhaps it should come as no surprise, but Karns -2.86 is the best mark of the season for a Mariners’ pitcher. It’s better than any one pitch Felix threw in his perfect game or Iwakuma’s no-no. That’s not to say it’s historic, though. The last game by a Mariner that I can find with a modicum of searching that beats it came from Taijuan Walker in his destruction of the Twins late last year. In that game, Walker’s *fastball* was easily over 3 runs below average. Clayton Kershaw’s topped 3 runs with his fastball as well, and would easily get there if he threw either his slider or curve enough, but he mixes them to great effect instead. Jake Arrieta, and this is probably not shocking, is essentially making a habit of this with his sinker. I’m kind of shocked that Noah Syndergaard hasn’t done it yet this year, but as with Kershaw, it’s often because he’s mixing his pitches and not throwing any one of them enough to rack up runs. The most dominant game *of Karns type* and I’m totally making this up as I go here, but a game in which a pitcher dominates by throwing a blizzard of yellow hammers, was Jose Fernandez’s brilliant 14K, 0BB start against Atlanta in April of 2014. Fernandez went 8, threw *54* curves, and had -4+ run value on the pitch. Steve Cishek actually closed that one out when he was with the Marlins. (Alex Wood struck out 11 with no walks and took a hard 1-0 loss for the Braves).
Collin McHugh started 2016 in about the worst way possible, lasting 1/3 of an inning and giving up 6 runs to the Yankees. His K and BB rates are nearly identical to last year’s, and he’s given up just one dinger on the year, leading to a FIP under 3, but as you’d imagine given that first start, he’s been extremely hittable and given up 15 runs in less than 17 IP. Like Keuchel (and Miley, and Karns-before-last-night), McHugh’s BABIP is off-the-charts high. Never a big ground ball guy, his GB% has plumetted by 12 percentage points this year, and he’s been an extreme FB guy thus far. McHugh works with a low-90s fastball, a high-80s cutter with a tiny bit of glove-side break and a curve. In the past, the curve was his putaway pitch, and his cutter was a useful one to lefties and righties, but he was prone to hang the odd one. Over time, batters have started to elevate both his curve and fastball, and that’s what’s leading to his dwindling GB%. That’s not awful; plenty of pitchers actively court fly ball contact, after all. But it certainly hasn’t been good for McHugh. On the plus side, he’s giving up weak fly ball contact, with an average that’s one of the best in the league, sandwiched between Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. They’re not pulling more of them, nor hitting them harder, the way we saw with Dallas Keuchel. So will McHugh eventually figure this out? We’ll see.
1: Marte, SS
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Lind, DH
6: Seager, 3B
7: Lee, 1B
8: Clevenger, C
9: Martin, CF
Jackson beat Homer Bailey and the Pensacola Blue Wahoos 5-3. Tim Lopes and Leon Landry had two hits each. Brett Ash got the win with 5 IP, but the bullpen pitched extremely well, yielding zero runs. Forrest Snow made his 2016 debut with 1 2/3 hitless innings.
Bakersfield’s comeback fell just short, as they lost to Lancaster 5-4 despite homers by Austins Wilson and Cousino. Eddie Campbell starts tonight.
Bowling Green raced out to a 10-0 lead on Clinton and held off a late rally, winning 12-8. Dalton Kelly hit his first pro HR in the game. Kyle Wilcox gave up 10 runs in 2 2/3 IP. The former 6th rounder is off to a slow start, as is today’s starter, Nick Wells. Thankfully, Wells has been somewhat better of late; he gave up 3 runs in 4 2/3 today, but ended up losing a tough 3-2 decision. RF Gus Craig homered for the Lumberkings. Speaking of Dalton Kelly, the former 38th round pick out of UCSB leads the org with a .451 OBP, edging out Mike Zunino’s .449.
Larry Stone wrote a great story on Zunino’s mental adjustments and how much fun he’s having tearing the cover off the ball in Tacoma.
The story of the day may not be the M’s beginning play in 1st, or Nate Karns great outing. Instead, the M’s announced a big change in their ownership group, with Howard Lincoln, in charge since 1999-2000, stepping down and minority owner John Stanton moving to acquire the club. Stanton and partners are seeking to acquire 90% of the club according to Geoff Baker. What will this mean to the M’s? We’ll have to wait and see, but probably very little in the short to medium term. Kevin Mather’s retained as the President. It’s important to note that Nintendo’s share would be sold, so while Stanton’s currently part of ownership, this is more than shuffling the titles on the ownership committee, but Stanton isn’t a complete unknown. The M’s ownership has taken a lot of deserved criticism for seeming out of touch in the M’s years of wandering through the AL wilderness, talking more about the ballpark experience than the product on the field, or meddling in Eric Wedge’s practices, but most of all for not opening their purse strings. The M’s payroll has been on the low side, and calls to spend more will increase as the M’s TV revenue looks to be among the game’s highest. As part of Stanton’s purchase, the team’s been valued at $1.4 billion. Should the M’s be acquiring more free agents? Or having acquired Robbie Cano and Nelson Cruz, is the focus going to be elsewhere for a while? The M’s avoided a rebuild and would need some talent to go head to head with the Cubs or to pull away in the AL, so it’s something that Jerry Dipoto could be talking about sooner rather than later. That said, the historic contract to Cano shows that the primary problem hasn’t necessarily been a reluctance to pay, but abysmal performance from low-paid arb and pre-arb players the club’s depended on. I’d be happy to learn that ownership will commit to in-season upgrades, but if this team is going to go anywhere, change needs to start in player development.
Nate Karns vs. Dallas Keuchel, 7:10pm
The M’s find themselves in first place after a dominant – and very, very encouraging – performance by Taijuan Walker, who pitched around defensive miscues, some early command issues, to finish the night with six consecutive Ks. The line-up couldn’t score despite a career high 7 walks from Doug Fister, so run support was added to the burden Walker had to carry, but he did so easily. Sure, he had some help – two HRs and a baffling caught-stealing in a nail-biting 9th inning come to mind. But Walker’s fast start is everything we could’ve hoped for. The M’s rotation needed another anchor in Felix and Kuma’s slow decline, and, to bring it back around to today’s game, the uh…not so fast start of the newcomers.
I talked about Miley the other day, but Nate Karns hasn’t quite found himself yet either. He’s striking out batters at the same rate as before (the K/9 is higher, but his K% is roughly equal), but walking many more and giving up far too many hits. Like Miley, his BABIP is terrible, and that should regress as soon as his 30%+ line drive rate does. That’s encouraging, as is his declining contact rate. Wait out the bad luck and you’ll have something. But there’s conflicting stuff too, as you’d imagine looking at a guy who’s been hit so hard. Batters are pulling their fly balls against him far more than they have in the past, and in general, pulled fly balls are good for the batter. This increase in the *percentage* of pulled fly balls is accompanied by a similar increase in the number of fly balls. Having all but ditched his sinker, a pitch he threw over 10% of the time last year, that makes sense: he’s trying to get more FB contact, and he’s doing it. It’s just getting hit a bit harder than he’d like.
And that brings us to Karns’ biggest weakness, the biggest blemish on what’s been a decent start to his career. He’s been hit hard – destroyed, really – by right-handed bats. Like with BABIP, the temptation is to rely upon general rules that such beasts cannot exist, and that this is an illusion borne of random chance or running into a bunch of good righties in the AL East. It’s true: his career’s too short thus far to say much with conviction. But thus far, Karns is giving up over *2* HR per 9 IP to same-handed bats. Both lefties and righties have hit his four-seam fastball well, but while lefties have an ISO of over .200 against, righties are up over .300. Similarly, lefties have an ISO of .039 against his curve, while righties are up at .134. This could be nothing, but it’s kind of interesting to imagine a guy with a weakness that’s hidden by standard theory that you bat tons of lefties against righties. I mean, Karns has faced over 3 times more lefties this year than righties, so it’s clear most teams don’t buy this is real at all. But his K:BB ratios show similar reverse splits, so it’s not JUST about a few doubles turned into HRs. Is he more deceptive against lefties somehow? Are righties able to guess more easily, given he doesn’t throw his change as much to them?
Speaking of batters who’ve been giving up too much hard-hit contact, the M’s face the reining Cy Young winner tonight, Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel who, for the past two years, has been amazingly good at inducing both ground balls in general and slow ground balls in particular, has had a rough start to 2016. In his last start, he gave up 13 hits and 6 runs in 6 IP. In his 2nd start, he walked 6 in 5 2/3, leading to a big spike in his walk rate. Like Karns, Keuchel has seen batters chase fewer pitches outside of the strike zone, and like Karns, he’s seen his contact rate improve – he’s getting more swinging strikes. But the problem is that hitters are doing more damage. It’s kind of amazing how often this pattern has repeated this year: batters appear more selective, and do a bit more damage, but don’t make more contact. Back in 2013, when Keuchel was essentially replacment level, 29% of the contact against him was classified as “hard” or well-hit. In the past two seasons, he’s been around 19-20%, a mark that led the league both seasons. Thus far in 2016, he’s sitting at 30%. Some of this may be due to a velocity drop that looks a bit bigger than the standard April decline (Karns’ velo is actually up this year). Whatever the cause, the M’s need to take advantage.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Lee, 1B
9: Smith, DH
Smith’s legs necessitate another RF start for Nelson Cruz, which… man, he did not look comfortable out there last night. At least Gutierrez can play LF?
The Astros have 5 righties in their line-up and two lefties in the middle of the order with big platoon splits of their own (Preston Tucker/Colby Rasmus), which seems like a good line-up on paper against Karns. Of course, it’s not like they’re consciously opting for righties in lieu of lefties; Altuve/Correa/Springer are starting against anyone. But it’ll be interesting to see how Karns deals with that top third of the line-up tonight.
Tacoma played a morning game, and it looks like the position players were a bit tired. Sacramento won it 1-0 with a run in the top of the 9th. Ramiro Pena homered off of Justin De Fratus for the only score. Chris Taylor had his hitting streak broken yesterday, so started a new one with a single. Not much else going on for the offense, but Mike Zunino had a pinch-hit single in the 9th as well. Tacoma’s off tomorrow.
Jackson lost 9-3 to Pensacola, as Sam Gaviglio had his first poor outing, giving up 2 HRs and 7 runs in 5 IP. The Generals couldn’t figure out Reds prospect Amir Garrett, who fanned 9 in 6 2/3 dominant innings. They’ve got another tough assignment tonight, as they face rehabbing Reds starter Homer Bailey, trying to make his way back from injury. Brett Ash starts for Jackson. Like Tacoma, Jackson’s got a travel day tomorrow.
Tyler Pike starts tonight for Bakersfield, and Kyle Wilcox starts for Clinton.