An extremely brief GM recap
Every time I post the odds or anything, we get requests to add a ranking of who we’d prefer, or who’s the most stat-friendly, or whatnot.
So here’s an extremely short version of that.
LaCava’s an upgrade, and he and Woodfork are the two who would probably be able to come in and improve the franchise without a lot of turmoil. He’s well-regarded in the same way Bavasi was, and he’ll probably sail through the interviews. He’d get on great with the press.
Woodfork’s much the same – he’s definitely a step towards modern, savvy baseball management. And all accounts of his work with the Diamondbacks are good, and his time there may make him a good fit for trying to rework the Mariners. And he too would likely do well bringing the whole organization forward, forging relationships, and so on.
Rick Hahn’s sort of generically the same too: you got the leadership and get-along check box, plus we know he does things like figure out the value of a win and who contributes what to that (though not how, which could be troubling).
Call those “good hires” and I’ll talk about my reservations in a second.
Kim Ng’s more of a cipher. We know she’s really smart, likely to dramatically improve the team’s ability to work the margins of the roster and make great waiver pickups. She’s said to have come a long way in her player evaluation on the scouting side, but it’s hard to gauge that. I worry that given her career-long proclivity for dodging the press there’s the risk of a DePodesta-style rift with the local ink-stained wretches that could impair her ability to run the team. We also don’t know where she is on, say, advances in defense evaluation. That kind of thing can be sassed out in the interview process, but we don’t know.
Here I shrug. I don’t know. I was once a full Ng supporter and then the more I realized that we could throw our nominal cheering behind someone we knew was on the cutting edge of GM-dom, like Antonetti (or DePodesta, or…)
Tony Bernazard… it looks like Bavasi 2. That’s too mean, but there it is. Bad hire. If anyone wants to throw exculpatory evidence in here, I’d love to see it.
And I’m skipping DiPoto because I’m on a 1hr timer (seriously, there’s a window at the upper-left that reads “You can use Internet now!” with a ticking countdown).
Here’s my worry, though — take LaCava or Woodfork. They may be good, but is that enough? I don’t want to be disparaging, but the AL West already has a lot of good and well-funded competition. A GM who’s on the top of the traditional, good-interview, gets-along, knows everyone pile might keep the team’s head above water but that’s not going to win championships. What makes them potentially one of the best GMs in the game, not just now but in a few years when the next crop of super-hybrid GMs arise, along with the next batch of best-of-the-old ones?
Still, all of this is easy to write on the outside. The M’s, if they’re asking the right questions and there’s no reason to believe they will, could easily figure out whether or not the things we don’t see on their resumes adds up to something more than we know.
On the interview and Ng
We’ve written a lot about Kim Ng here in the past, and I’m indisposed, so I’m going to skip the recap. And I’m going to also skip the other issue about her candidacy* and say this:
Ng doesn’t do much in the way of publicity, so you’re very likely not going to hear a ton about her as the team does their interviews and whatnot. I will bet big money that she will rock those interviews. The team clearly intends to ask candidates a lot of questions about what they’d do in different situations, how they’d build the team, and so on (which is going to be a huge improvement over the last time they did this). And while (as previously expressed) I don’t know that Ng’s at the cutting edge of GM technology in the way we do know that (say) Antonetti is, in part because of the previously-mentioned press aversion, I guarantee that there will be no interview question she won’t be prepared for. If they ask her what they should do about Bloomquist, she’s going to tell them Bloomquist should be about #100 on a Top #100 Offseason Question list, and then she’ll tell them why, and Armstrong and Lincoln will probably stare, remember to close their mouths, and then have to decide whether that feeling is fright or excitement.
Sometimes that wins jobs even when the candidate goes in low on odds. Ricciardi got his job that way. Ng could be next.
Mariner GM Handicapping for Saturday, 10/4
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 29% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 29% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 11% |
| Antonetti (1) | 4% |
| Pelekoudas | 2% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 1% |
| Field | 10% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Field includes: Avila, DiPoto, Evans, Hinch, Hoyer, Evans, Forst, Jennings, White.
Mariner GM Handicapping for Friday, 10/3
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 29% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 29% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 10% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 2% |
| Antonetti (1) | 1% |
| Avila | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Dan Jennings | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 3% |
| Field | 5% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Mariner GM Handicapping for Wednesday, 10/1
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 30% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 30% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 7% |
| Avila | 3% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 2% |
| Antonetti (1) | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 3% |
| Field | 5% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Current GM Handicapping: Tuesday
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who | Percent |
| LaCava | 25% |
| Hahn | 23% |
| Woodfork | 21% |
| Ng | 10% |
| Avila | 5% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 3% |
| Antonetti | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 3% |
| Field | 5% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance.
“Field” is everyone not listed.
New to the list: Rick Hahn, White Sox assistant general manager.
Significant change: DePodesta drops to 0%
Updated to take Mike’s suggestion and clean up a typo.
GM candidate: Rick Hahn
Current job: Assistant GM, White Sox (VP,AGM)
Job history from Baseball America
Puff bio from the MLB site:
Hahn’s primary responsibilities include assisting Senior Vice President/General Manager Ken Williams with all player acquisitions, evaluations and contract negotiations, as well as with overseeing all elements of the club’s baseball operations, including the scouting and player development departments. Williams credits Hahn with negotiating multiyear contracts with several current White Sox players, including 2006 All-Stars Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski.
(shudder) Sorry. Make of that list what you will.
Former agent.
Other GM job news:
Previously interviewed for the Cardinals job along with Antonetti and Peter Woodfork, who you’ll also see on our leaderboard. The Cardinals hired their interim GM.
Declined to interview for the Pirates job, as did Antonetti. LaCava, who you’ll see on our leaderboard, did.
Background scoring:
Contracts and player negotiation: strong
Player scouting and development: ?
Modern baseball analysis: ?
Relevant articles… ummm…. if you find anything good, please drop them into the contents. I didn’t turn anything up except this radio interview: Hahn discusses offseason needs, 11/30/2007
Current GM Handicapping: Post-season edition
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who | Percent |
| LaCava | 30% |
| Woodfork | 25% |
| Ng | 12% |
| Avila | 5% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 5% |
| Antonetti | 3% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| Towers | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Field | 5% |
“Field” is everyone not listed.
Dave adds: I’ve heard DePo gave up the right to interview for GM positions this winter when the Padres re-signed him to an extension a month or so ago.
Current GM Handicapping
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who | Percent |
| LaCava | 30% |
| Woodfork | 20% |
| DePodesta | 10% |
| Pelekoudas | 7% |
| Antonetti | 5% |
| Avila | 5% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 5% |
| Ng | 5% |
| White | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Towers | 1% |
| Field | 10% |
“Field” is everyone not listed.
M’s looking at USSM-endorsed candidates
Says Lincoln to concerned season ticketholder:
- Paul DePodesta
- Chris Antonetti
- David Forst
- Kim Ng
Awesome. I hope they get the full consideration they deserve.