Game 28, Twins at Mariners
Vargas vs Pavano, 7:10 pm.
You could feel this coming. With Chone Figgins showing that his problems had nothing to do with where he hit in the line-up (please learn from this, media), it appears that the plug has been pulled on the Chone Figgins, Leadoff Hitter experiment. Despite facing a right-hander, Figgins isn’t in the line-up tonight, having been replaced by Mike Carp in left field. Jesus Montero is behind the plate again, with Alex Liddi playing third and Kyle Seager at DH. For those that care about batting order, Ackley moved up to the first spot and will be followed by Liddi, but we just had a big lesson in how unimportant batting order actually is, and it’d be really great if everyone could just realize that who plays each night is far more important than where they hit.
Ackley, 2B
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Seager, DH
Smoak, 1B
Carp, DH
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Justin Smoak’s OTHER Problem
It was June, 27th of 2011. Justin Smoak stood in against Justin Verlander, and when the Tigers ace left a fastball out over the plate, the M’s 1B muscled it out to left center for a 421 foot home run. Smoak was on his way to a breakout season; he’d homered the day before, and at the end of play that day, he had an impressive .300/.412/.557 line. Smoak was hitting everything, but he was doing serious damage against fastballs. Verlander’s pitch was 96 mph, and fairly well located. He struggled in May, but still punished mistakes, like a HR off of 94 mph fastball from CC Sabathia and a double against Chicago closer Sergio Santos’ 96mph heat. By June, it seemed clear he wasn’t a .300 hitter, but he was still a solid contributor. He had a .264/.366/.488 line as late as June 24th – a line that showed solid patience and the kind of power the M’s expected when they traded for him.
After today’s loss, Justin Smoak’s slugging percentage hovers around .300. He’s been unlucky on balls in play, so some of that is the result of a putrid batting average, but his isolated power is around .100, near where Chone Figgins’ is this season, and around the level Ichiro hit early in his career. Forget BABIP – where’s his power? Dave laid out his struggles against offspeed stuff in this fine post, but Smoak’s still capable of hitting a hanging change-up, as Rick Porcello found out on this road trip. But as worrying as his whiffs on bendy pitches are, I’m worried that he’s not able to punish fastballs anymore. It’s barely May, so we don’t have anywhere near enough data at this point, but I’m finding it increasingly hard to believe he homered on a 96mph fastball. He’s managed four extra base hits on the year – three of them have come off of change-ups. Only one HR’s come off a fastball – his first, in the Tokyo Dome against Bartolo Colon. Colon put a FB on the outside corner and Smoak hit it the other way just over the fence in left. It was a nice piece of hitting, but it wouldn’t be a homer in any park here, and given the pitcher, it likely wasn’t exactly Verlander-level velocity.
Against pitches over 92mph (which is completely arbitrary, I know), Smoak is 1 for 13 this year, with only a single off of a reeling Yu Darvish. He singled sharply today on a fastball, but that brought his line against straight stuff to 4 for 26; three singles and the HR in Tokyo. The low BACON (Batting Average on Contact) is something that fans have mentioned as a possible cause for optimism with Smoak, but his problem isn’t his batting average. The M’s wouldn’t be happy with X more singles in his batting line. Smoak’s speed and issues with offspeed pitches mean that he HAS to crush mistakes to be an average player. He’s done it before, but it’s been so long that you have to wonder if we’ll see that version of Smoak again. A .100 ISO Smoak would have to hit like Ichiro at his peak to be a real asset and frankly that’s not terribly likely.
Below are two heatmaps comparing Smoak’s run values against fastballs to the league average against fastballs. Blue is below average, yellow/orange/red are better, and the run values are calculated on balls/strikes as well as balls in play. The first covers July 1, 2011 to May 2nd, 2012. There’s an awful lot of blue in the heart of the plate. But there’s not much data, and it’s colored (heh) by his awful batting average on contact that I mentioned above.
Not good.
So let’s extend it out a bit and compare Smoak to league average on fastballs for his entire career, and let’s regress it by adding in some leage-average performance in some of the zones:
Hmmm. Better, but not great. And this includes his fleeting glory days (not a metaphor, I mean actual *days*) when he was hitting good fastballs.
The other day, Smoak turned around a 95mph fastball from Matt Moore, but his line drive was snagged at 1B. Then he hit a long fly ball on a 94mph fastball from Moore, but it died near the track in center. Optimists have plenty of ammunition here – his slugging percentage isn’t hurt solely by a lack of home runs, his .043 BABIP on fly balls is robbing him of doubles too. He’s been phenomenally unlucky against lefties, with a wOBA of .091, and a BABIP of .100. If/when he brings that back to his true talent level, he’s…well I won’t say ‘good,’ but something tolerable. They’d probably point out that his hand injury may still be bothering him, and that power’s often the last skill to return after an injury. But visually and statistically, he’s just not a potent bat right now. And while his whiffs are concerning, the most concerning thing of all’s what happens when he *does* square a ball up, like he did against Moore two days ago.
Luckily for Justin, the Minnesota Twins come to town tomorrow night, and for whatever reason, that organization seems to hate high-velocity fastballs almost as much as Smoak does. He’ll face Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Nick Blackburn, meaning there’s very little chance of seeing a 92mph fastball this series. When Nick Blackburn’s the flamethrower of the group, you’re dealing with some soft-tossers. Show us a sign, Justin.
Note: this post was spurred by a twitter conversation with former USSM mod Graham MacAree. The heatmaps come from Jeff Zimmerman’s great www.baseballheatmaps.com.
Game 27, Mariners at Rays
Millwood vs Niemann, 10:10 am.
The road trip comes to an end with a day game, so the M’s are running the unconventional day-after-night line-up out there. With Montero sitting and Smoak demoted to the bottom third of the order, Kyle Seager is your new cleanup hitter. Better than when Adam Kennedy was hitting cleanup last year, but still kind of hilarious.
Oh, also, Chone Figgins is playing because he’s 7 for 14 lifetime against Niemann. Joe Maddon is shifting his defense on every play because of the work the Rays front office has done to figure out the spray tendencies of every hitter in the Majors, and Eric Wedge is starting Chone Figgins because of the results of 14 at-bats against a particular pitcher. But, yeah, us stat nerds are the ones that are out of touch with today’s reality…
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Seager, 3B
Jaso, C
Carp, DH
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, CF
Kawasaki, SS
Brendan Ryan’s Job Should Not Be In Jeopardy
With the Mariners scuffling and Brendan Ryan in the midst of an 0 for 25 slump, there seems to be some clamoring for some change at shortstop. I’ll be honest – I find this to be pretty strange.
Brendan Ryan is not a particularly good hitter. At his best, he’s been a bit below league average. At his worst, he’s been one of the least effective hitters in the game. He bounces around between awful and tolerable at the plate, and because he’s not particularly good at hitting, he has stretches where he looks absolutely hopeless – like the one he’s in now.
In fact, Ryan has a stretch like this every few months.
In June of 2010, he had a five game stretch where he went 0 for 17.
In July of 2010, he had an eight game stretch where he went 0 for 21.
Last April/May, he had a six game stretch where he went 0 for 19.
Last August, Ryan had a six game stretch where he went 0 for 15.
This one’s included more strikeouts, so I guess it looks worse than the others, but it’s not like Ryan going hitless for an extended period of time is anything new. This happens to bad hitters more often than you might think.
Of course, Ryan isn’t in the line-up for his bat, he’s in there for his glove, which happens to be amongst the best in baseball. And, yes, Ryan’s defense makes up for his offensive shortcomings, at least to a large enough degree to make him a roughly league average shortstop. Since the start of the 2009 season, Ryan has hit just .247/.308/.333 (that’s a 77 wRC+) but has still been worth +7.4 WAR, the 16th highest total of any shortstop during the last 3+ years.
He’s a classic great glove/no bat shortstop, and Major League teams have been running these guys out since the beginning of time. In fact, the M’s had a young shortstop with this exact same skillset 20 years ago. From 1991 to 1993, Omar Vizquel hit .261/.321/.314 (that’s also a 77 wRC+), yet his excellent defense allowed him to rack up +8.4 WAR in those three years. The Mariners then traded him away for an “offensive upgrade” in Felix Fermin, and, well, you know the rest.
I’m not saying Brendan Ryan is Omar Vizquel. I am saying that Ryan is a top shelf defensive shortstop, however, and he creates enough value with the glove that the Mariners can live with some offensive shortcomings. Getting a worse player in the line-up, even if that worse player brings more offense to the table, isn’t going to help the Mariners win more games. The Mariners don’t “need more offense” – they need more production, and just trading a few more runs scored for a few more runs allowed doesn’t get them anywhere.
Yes, you could put Kyle Seager at shortstop and Alex Liddi at third and take the hit defensively, but what’s the point? If you want to get Liddi on the field, just play him at DH and put Carp in left, or just put Liddi himself in left and see how quickly he can pick up playing the outfield. The Mariners have a useless player with no value to the team and no future in the organization whose playing time can easily be stripped and given to Liddi if getting him more regular work is the goal, and it doesn’t require the team take a significant hit defensively (Figgins, you might have noticed, is a lousy left fielder) in order to make it happen.
If you want to play Seager at short occasionally against righties on days when Montero is DHing and you can only have three of Seager/Ryan/Carp/Liddi in the line-up in some combination of 3B/SS/LF, fine, having him play there once a week or so won’t destroy you, especially if you can line it up with a day that a flyball guy like Noesi is throwing. But, let’s not kid ourselves – Brendan Ryan is still one of the five or six best position players on this team, and the team is worse on days when he doesn’t play.
As for Munenori Kawasaki, he’s an even worse hitter than Ryan. ZIPS projects him for a team worst .600 OPS going forward, and he’s done absolutely nothing to show that his lack of hitting in Japan wasn’t a reflection of his actual skills. He’s never hit, he’s not going to hit, and giving him playing time for any reason besides “Ryan needs a day off” is a waste of everyone’s time.
Over on FanGraphs, we update the rest-of-season ZIPS projections on a daily basis, taking into account all performance up through the prior night’s games, and adjusting for how players have performed most recently. Among position players, here’s how ZIPS sees the relative merits of the guys on the roster for the remainder of the 2012 season:
Ackley: +3.3 WAR
Seager: +2.4 WAR
Ichiro: +2.2 WAR
Montero: +1.8 WAR
Ryan: +1.8 WAR
Carp: +1.6 WAR
Saunders: +1.4 WAR
Liddi: +1.3 WAR
Liddi’s had a nice start to the year, and the team should try to find ways to work him in more often (here’s an idea: release Chone Figgins), but benching Brendan Ryan isn’t going to do this team any good. If they want to give him another day off to help “clear his head”, fine, he’s not good enough to necessitate being in the line-up every single day.
But stop calling for Brendan Ryan to lose his job. He’s the best shortstop in the organization and it’s not even close. He’s not going to slump forever, and he’s not the problem with the Mariners roster.
Game 26, Mariners at Rays
Beavan vs Shields, 7:10 pm.
For the first time this season, Jesus Montero is catching back to back games. Eric Wedge said in his pregame talk that John Jaso will be behind the plate tomorrow. Also, Alex Liddi is getting the line-up spot vacated by Olivo tonight, and Mike Carp is getting another day on the bench. Like Jaso, he’ll probably be in the line-up tomorrow. Also notable is Justin Smoak moving down to seventh in the order. Not sure that’s going to teach him how to hit an off-speed pitch, but he’s earned a demotion, so might as well try it.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Seager, 3B
Liddi, 1B
Smoak, DH
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Game 25, Mariners at Rays
Noesi vs Moore, 4:05 pm.
The M’s went with the better option, and Mike Carp is expected to join the team in Tampa Bay today, replacing Miguel Olivo on the roster. This means that Montero and Jaso will now split the catching duties, and I’d expect Carp to mostly get DH time until he shows that he’s completely healthy. Because the Mariners are facing a lefty tonight, Carp is not in the line-up, but he’ll probably be available to pinch-hit and I’d expect him to start at DH tomorrow.
Hector Noesi will get the start for the Mariners, and he’s going to need a good performance pretty soon or we’ll have to start talking about whether his rotation spot should be in jeopardy. With Evan Longoria on the shelf, the Rays line-up takes a significant hit, so this should be an opportunity for him to show that he deserves to stick in the rotation. One interesting thing to note on Noesi:
Vs RHB: 15.4% BB%, 12.8% K%
Vs LHB: 2.4% BB%, 17.1% K%
Noesi’s best pitch is his change-up, and it’s been the only pitch he can throw for a swinging strike in the early part of the season. Since the change-up is more effective against opposite handed hitters, Noesi’s running a 7/1 K/BB ratio against lefties, but since he relies more on his fastball and breaking ball against RHBs, he’s posted a 5/6 mark against righties. The development of his breaking ball is going to be vital for Noesi’s long term success, as he needs a swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed batters. The Rays will run a bunch of left-handed bats out there tonight, so Noesi should be able to use his change-up often. The key will be how well he’s able to attack guys like B.J. Upton when he’s not able to lean on his change-up.
Ackley, DH
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, C
Seager, 2B
Wells, LF
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Olivo Injury Forces Roster Decisions
If you missed it, Miguel Olivo left tonight’s game in Tampa Bay with what has been called a strained groin, but he had to be helped off the field and almost certainly looks bound for the disabled list. Let’s just get this out of the way – I’m not celebrating Miguel Olivo’s injury, nor do I encourage anyone else to find joy in his personal pain. That said, there’s an old saying about silver linings, and this cloud may be a little less toothsome than most.
With Olivo likely DL bound, the Mariners are going to have to make a decision on a replacement, and in reality, they have two options.
A. Call up Guillermo Quiroz to serve as the emergency catcher, use Jaso/Montero as a C/DH platoon.
Against RHPs, this probably makes the Mariners better, as Jaso would essentially substitute into Olivo’s line-up spot regardless of which of the two was actually behind the plate on any given day. This would allow Wedge to continue to use Montero behind the plate at the same pace he’s been using him while still getting him at-bats at DH and not put the team in another situation where they had to forfeit the DH if one of the two catchers went down with an injury.
Against LHPs, its a bit more of a problem. Quiroz is a right-handed bat, so Wedge could use him behind the plate and Montero at DH to maintain the mostly RHB-heavy line-ups he’s been favoring, which would probably be the best option. The other option would be to start Montero behind the plate and use Liddi at DH, keeping Seager on the field at third base. Seager’s not very good against LHPs, so the team might actually be better off with Quiroz, but you can make an argument that Seager getting at-bats against lefties is more important for the franchise than getting a marginal upgrade by having Quiroz’s right-handed bat in the line-up.
Neither solution is perfect, but my guess is that Wedge would go with Quiroz behind the plate, as it wouldn’t force him to have Montero catch more than originally planned.
B. Call up Mike Carp, have Montero/Jaso split time behind the plate, and have Carp DH until he shows he’s ready to resume regular OF work.
To me, this is probably the right call. Yes, Carp’s been lousy down in Tacoma and his shoulder may still be bothering him, but he was down there to get his hacks in, not try to earn his way back to the club. By having him come back and DH, the team could get a better look at where he’s at and try to inject a bit more offense into the line-up without forcing him to rush back to the outfield upon his return. The offensive upgrade of going from Olivo to Carp could be substantial, and would force the team to give Jaso and Montero regular time behind the plate. It’s obvious that Wedge doesn’t yet trust Jaso to catch, but that fear isn’t based in any kind of reality, and keeping another catcher off the roster would force him to actually watch Jaso play and hopefully realize that he’s a Major League quality catcher who deserves more playing time than he’s gotten so far.
This option doesn’t come without its risks, however. On days when Jaso catches and Montero DHs, the team runs the risk of losing the DH spot if Jaso gets injured, and they also forfeit the ability to pinch-hit or pinch-run for him in any late game situation. Since he’s slow and lousy against lefties, he’s a late game match-up weakness, and opposing managers would exploit those issues. But, those risks are outweighed by the upside of Jaso showing Wedge that he actually can catch and offer some more offense against right-handed pitching from behind the plate, which could lead to a more optimal playing time distribution even after Olivo returns from his injury.
My guess is that Wedge is going to push for option A, and we’ll see Quiroz joining the team tomorrow. It’d be nice if Jack told him it was time to see what Jaso could do behind the plate and didn’t give him the option of using Quiroz as the new crutch, however. Option A is easier. Option B is better. Let’s hope the team goes with better.
Game 24, Mariners at Rays
Hernandez vs Hellickson, 4:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
M’s go back to the standard line-up against a righty, so you can probably guess the order below by now.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Saunders, CF
Olivo, C
Ryan, SS
Quick Note on Alex Liddi
Everything at this point is still small sample, so you can’t read too much into any player’s 2012 line to date. However, I did want to point out one somewhat encouraging trend.
Last year, 602 players came to bat at least 40 times. This total includes a bunch of starting pitchers, since I don’t have a quick-and-dirty way to filter them out, and also because their existence here makes the following point funnier. Of those 602 players with 40+ PA, Alex Liddi’s 59.6% contact rate ranked 596th, and four of the six players who posted lower contact rates were pitchers. Among position players, only Chris Carter and Blake Tekotte – both rightfully back in the minor leagues this year – swung and missed more often than Alex Liddi in 2011. For reference, Liddi’s contact rate was significantly worse than the mark posted by Carlos Peguero, who put bat on ball 64.4 percent of the time he swung. Liddi made Peguero look like a good contact hitter. Enough said.
2012, though? Alex Liddi’s contact rate is at 80.0%, slightly higher than the league average of 79.8%. There was a lot of talk in spring about Liddi shortening up his swing and doing a better job of making contact, and the early returns suggest that he’s actually taken a step forward in that area. We’re still dealing with less than 100 career plate appearances, and Liddi’s true talent contact rate was almost certainly better than he showed in the big leagues last year, but contact rate is a thing that stabilizes fairly quickly, and Liddi’s ability to post an 80% contact rate in any kind of sample is encouraging, as that was something he just couldn’t do last year.
Don’t go overboard with Liddi love just yet. After all, his rest-of-season ZIPS projection still calls for just a .301 wOBA, which would make him a below average hitter, but contact has always been Liddi’s fatal flaw, and if he can keep hitting for power while also improving his contact rate, then he could develop into something better than we had hoped for. He’ll need to take several more steps forward before he starts getting penciled in as the future at third base, but hey, baby steps are better than no steps.
Minor League Wrap (4/23-29/12)
In this one, we have two hitters of the week in Jackson, a walk-off from Carlos Triunfel, mention of Lansing’s bizarre mascot, a seven-inning complete game in the Cal League, Anthony Vasquez’s new nickname, four dingers by one hitter in the span of twelve innings (his week is even more interesting than just that!), a pitcher that has more walks than either hits or Ks, continued Cerberus-related dominance, a batter that accumulated half his hits for the year in the past week, and various other things to shock and educate you in how amazing and dumb baseball can be.
To the jump!
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