Minor League Wrap (4/5-15/12)
Here we are again! There was also a big pack of releases to start the season, as usual, and various players that were of interest at some point like Matt Bischoff, Jessie Nava, and Brandon Haveman found themselves on the outs. You can also find a list of players on the DL on the same page. Use this to not ask me redundant questions!
To address assorted ways in which I have been wrong to start the season, neither Smith nor Sena have been in the Mavericks rotation and instead it’s Sorce and Gillheeney, and over in Clinton, it looks like they might be using off-days to keep mileage down on certain arms (Shipers and Landazuri did a piggyback outing at one point), but Trevor Miller and Brett Shankin are in the rotation, trading off starts, and Kohlscheen isn’t.
Did you notice that two Mariners (and one former Mariner, UGH) landed on Baseball America’s inaugural Prospect Hot Sheet? Did you see where Gameday seems to have expanded to advanced-A leagues, or at least the Cal League? Did you know that the Mavericks and the Generals don’t get a day off until the 30th? Did you realize that this minor league season began with two of our affiliates playing against the Bees and AHH BEEESSSS RUNNNNNNNNNNN. . . .
To the jump!
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Game 11, Athletics at Mariners
Godfrey vs Beavan, 1:10 pm.
Hey, you’ll never guess who is catching today. Even in a day-game-after-night situation, even with a right-handed pitcher on the mound, even with John Jaso sitting around screaming “hey, coach, over here!”… Olivo’s quickly reaching Jose Vidro territory at this point. I guess we can count our blessings that he’s not hitting cleanup. Now, we’ll just have to wait and see how long it takes Eric Wedge to figure out that he doesn’t belong in the line-up at all.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Saunders, LF
Olivo, C
Ryan, SS
Game 10, Athletics at Mariners
I’m not sure if Dave or anyone else is going to want to chime in. Last night was a disappointment, in a word, but certain things broke against us and it’s still pretty early. A team like this is going to have days of exciting baseball and days of mediocre baseball. It’s part of the process. Trusting the process eventually might work in Kansas City and elsewhere.
Noesi vs. Milone, 6:10 pm PDT
Today, the M’s are going up against someone they’ve never seen before. Jokes about being utterly dominated as the natural consequence of that. Milone was acquired from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez deal. He’s your basic left-handed change-up artist with average or slightly worse velocity and good command of his offerings. He’s unexciting, but he’s also in the major leagues, and his first name is Tomaso, not Thomas. Tomaso Milone sounds like a more exciting pitcher, or maybe the leader of some Cuban-inspired swing band. Last time out, he walked three, allowed three hits, and struck out no one in eight innings. That 100% strand rate has got to break sometime. Why not against the Mariners?
As a result of the match-up, we’re going heavy on right-handers tonight.
CF Figgins
2B Ackley
RF Ichiro!
1B Smoak
C Montero
3B Liddi
DH Olivo
LF Wells
SS Ryan
P Noesi
Game 9, Athletics at Mariners
Hernandez vs Colon, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day! We’re dealing with a situation here at Haus Cameron (not related to my health, I’m fine, no worries there), so no commentary from me tonight besides “Welcome Back Mike Cameron”.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Montero, DH
Olivo, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Sherrill –> Disabled List, Furbush –> Mariners
After six hits (two of them HRs) and a walk in only ten batters faced, George Sherrill’s been placed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow problems. Sherrill’s never been a fireballer, but his average fastball came in at under 86 MPH so far, substantially lower than it was a year ago in Atlanta, and a far cry from the nearly 91mph he averaged in his first go-round with the M’s.
To replace him, the M’s have recalled Charlie Furbush, who’s worked in relief for Tacoma. In 16 batters faced so far, Furbush has K’d six and given up just one hit. He’s only walked two. At this point, I’d expect Furbush to be a big improvement, albeit in a spot that just isn’t that important. Lucas Luetge’s been impressive so far, so Furbush can divide the LOOGY appearances with the Rule 5 kid or he can work in long relief with Erasmo Ramirez.
What I Learned This Week
Ok, so it was both a week and about two weeks, but the M’s and their full-season affiliates have now played a couple of opponents each. This is a situation ripe for reading way too much into small samples, of course. I’m aware of the danger here, but hey, we’ve been waiting for months to have real games to look at, so what the hell:
1: Felix Hernandez has enough faith in his new cutter to throw it in “real” games. In theory, this ought to be something new that he can use against lefties who are used to a steady diet of his change-up. In practice, well, this. Felix put that pitch in a pretty good spot against a hitter who hadn’t shown a lot of HR power, so it’s hard to fault him for it, but Felix missed his target badly. This’ll be something to watch in his next start – if he’s able to command the pitch well enough to hit the black, or if this is going to be relegated to a side show; something to give hitters a different look, but not something used to get outs directly. I’m excited to see what he does tonight and how he mixes the pitch in against a line-up that’s seen it already.
2: James Paxton’s off to the best start of the three top prospects in AA Jackson. A week ago, he was absolutely dominant, striking out 10 of the 19 hitters he faced with (crucially) no walks. Paxton’s command problems didn’t hurt him in the Midwest League, but bouts of wildness popped up at times in his spring training outings, so it’s great to see what he can do when he’s not yielding free passes. His second start (this past Wednesday) was less impressive, as he walked a batter and ran a number of three ball counts which increased his pitch count and led to an early exit. His command wasn’t great, but he was able to get fastballs over when he needed to and struck out 7 of the 19 Tennessee Smokies that faced him. If 4 hits, 1 walk and 7Ks are what we get in a so-so Paxton start, then he might need to move up a level. He’s got things to work on, but he’s in the enviable position of being able to throw fastballs by people in 3-1 counts and feel pretty confident that if they’re hit, they won’t be hit hard. That approach probably won’t work in MLB and it probably wouldn’t be as effective in the video-game run environments of the PCL. I’d initially thought that Danny Hultzen might move quicker given his pedigree and the fact that he’s on the 40-man, but Paxton’s first week was eye-opening.
3: Danny Hultzen’s debut was a lot better than the box score may indicate; he K’d 7 hitters, generated a lot of ground balls (several of which went for hits), and his command issues may be a combination of nerves and a tight zone (Cameron Bayne of Birmingham, a guy with decent career walk rates, walked 5 in 4 2/3 IP too). I’m still worried that his arm slot might give him problems against good right-handed hitters, but righties weren’t a huge problem last week (it could be argued that the White Sox system doesn’t have anyone that could be described as a “good right-handed hitter”). 3 of the runs charged to Hultzen scored on Yoervis Medina’s watch, but the first two were legitimate. After a one-out single, Hultzen gave up a triple to a very flawed lefty in Birmingham’s Jared Mitchell, and then scored Mitchell on a wild pitch. He’s facing a slightly better line-up today in the Cubs AA affiliate so we’ll hopefully know more this evening. The game starts at 4:15 pacific (so, in just a few minutes), and it’ll be shown live on milb.tv.
4: The High Desert Mavericks are going to score a lot of runs. No, I’m serious. While their league and park are such that a random smattering of commenters here could be counted on to plate a couple runs per game, the Mavs have several great hitters with college experience. Last year’s Mavs had several very talented, high-ceiling hitters that were drafted out of high school and moved up through the ranks – Nick Franklin was the biggest name, but Denny Almonte and Danny Carroll were tools picks out of high school. This year’s team includes SS Brad Miller, Cs John Hicks and Jack Marder, IFs Stefen Romero and Steven Proscia. So far, the college guys are getting it done – they’ve scored over 8 runs a game, and are slugging .565 as a team. Yes, the park is silly in some ways, and yes, it’s difficult to properly evaluate anyone playing there, but this isn’t 100% park effect – the team has the fewest strikeouts and the most walks in the California League.
(Incidentally, if you have the twitters and want to follow High Desert, give Victorville Daily Press reporter Kyle Glaser a follow – @KyleAGlaser)
5: Kyle Seager’s pretty good. After his long HR yesterday, Seager’s got the team’s best wOBA and he’s K’d only twice in 29 plate appearances – the latter stat’s interesting, as the M’s led the league in both swinging strike rate and strikeout rate in 2011. These whiffs obviously weren’t balanced out by power, patience or much of anything. While I viewed Bill Bavasi’s bizarre antipathy to Ks as counterproductive (ahhh, Jose Vidro), the fact remains that the M’s couldn’t even get lucky on balls in play when they were incapable of hitting balls in play. Seager’s absurd sub-3% whiff rate will regress, but I think last season’s call-up undersold his contact ability. Again, the contact rate is perfectly fine, but it’s got to be accompanied by something more – and after a 446 foot HR off of a lefty, I’d say Seager’s showing signs that he can hit the ball with more authority than he did last year. Now that the line-up’s been De-Custed (and with Carlos Peguero recuperating), there are only a few whiff-prone hitters in the everyday line-up. Miguel Olivo’s the big offender, of course, but if this team wants to avoid shutouts in Arlington, Justin Smoak’s going to have to improve his plate discipline a bit more.
Game 8, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs Holland, 11:05 am.
So, today’s line-up is a little weird. It’s a day-game-after-night situation, so it’s not unusual to see some of the reserves play, but Wedge is also taking advantage of the fact that the team is facing a left-handed starter to get a couple of little used right-handed bats in the line-up today. So, if you’ve been wanting to see more of Casper Wells (as I have) and Alex Liddi (okay, not so much), then today is your day.
To make room for those two in the line-up, Saunders and Ackley take a seat, with Figgins moving to center and Seager shifting to second. Also, Olivo’s back in there at catcher, but against an LHP, they don’t really have a better option. Even after Jaso’s two hits last night, there’s no real value in having him in the line-up today – Holland would tear him up.
Figgins, CF
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 2B
Olivo, C
Wells, LF
Ryan, SS
Game 7, Mariners at Rangers
Millwood vs Lewis, 5:05 pm.
Eric Wedge has answered our prayers – Miguel Olivo is not in today’s starting line-up. Jesus Montero makes his debut behind the plate for the team, while John Jaso makes his first appearance of the year at DH. He’s hitting 9th – behind Brendan Ryan – which should tell you all you need to know about what Wedge thinks of him as a hitter, but, hey, Jaso and Montero are both playing and Olivo is not. I’ll take it any way I can get it.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Montero, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Jaso, DH
It’s Time For Miguel Olivo To Be Accountable
Eric Wedge is big on accountability, and last night, he benched Brendan Ryan for an issue that he chalked up to that very reason. We could debate the merits of this kind of public-punishment leadership style, but that’s probably another post. The reality is that Wedge has made it clear that if you screw up, your spot in the line-up is in danger.
Unless, of course, your name is Miguel Olivo.
The Mariners have played 53 innings of baseball so far this year – Olivo has been behind the plate for every single one of them. John Jaso is the only position player who has not yet seen any action in 2012, and it’s pretty clear that Wedge intends on playing Olivo just as frequently as he did last year, when Olivo made 120 starts and caught 1,064 of the team’s 1,433 innings. And it apparently doesn’t matter how many times Olivo fails to perform the basic fundamental tasks asked of a catcher – his playing time is just not in jeopardy.
Take last night, for instance. In the second inning, Adrian Beltre led off with a double to put a man in scoring position. Blake Beavan then got Michael Young to bounce back to the mound, and they were able to get Beltre out at third. Young was able to advance to second on the play, however, so the situation remained the same – man in scoring position, one out.
Then, on the 1-1 pitch to Nelson Cruz, Beavan threw this 75 MPH curveball:
The pitch was down in the zone and a little bit outside, but it was a fairly routine stop for any Major League catcher. Olivo stabbed at the ball rather than dropping to his knees (catching 101), and the ball got away from him, so Young moved up to third base. He would then score on an infield single by David Murphy, and that would end up being the only run in the game. It’s not fair to say that Olivo’s misplay was the only reason they lost, but it directly led to the only run the team allowed all night, and it is fair to say that Olivo has no excuse for not stopping that pitch.
You know, except for the fact that he’s apparently unwilling or unable to become a reasonably passable defensive catcher.
Miguel Olivo broke in to the Major Leagues in 2003, starting 98 games for the White Sox as a rookie. Despite being just a part-time player, he still managed to allow 8 passed balls, third most in the American League. Since then, here’s his season passed ball totals and where they rank in his respective league:
2004 – 13 (2nd)
2005 – 7 (in only 690 IP, dumped by Mariners at midseason)
2006 – 10 (1st)
2007 – 16 (1st)
2008 – 4 (injured, only started 56 games)
2009 – 10 (1st)
2010 – 10 (1st)
2011 – 11 (3rd)
Last year was the first time in five years that Olivo had been healthy and not led his league in passed balls. He was eclipsed only by Toronto rookie J.P. Arencibia and Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was tasked with catching knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, so in reality, his PB total requires a large asterisk.
And, as we saw last night, a lot of easily stopped balls end up getting classified as wild pitches by the official scorer, and Olivo doesn’t take any kind of official hit for those. You will probably not be shocked to learn that, in addition to the official passed balls, the Mariners threw 68 “wild pitches”, fifth most in baseball. It’s impossible to know just how many of those wild pitches were actually balls that Olivo should have stopped, but you can bet there were more than a couple.
Catching the ball is the basic fundamental skill required of the position – it’s why they’re called “Catchers”. Miguel Olivo is absolutely terrible at this, and has been for a very long time. He’s the active leader in passed balls by a mile – he has 92, the next highest is Ramon Hernandez at 78 – and he has almost twice as many as the #4 guy on the list. That guy, Yadier Molina, has almost exactly the same number of career innings behind the dish, coming out at 7,715 compared to Olivo’s 7,700. Molina has allowed 48 passed balls. Now, he’s the best defensive catcher in the sport, but we’re talking 44 extra passed balls, or about six extra PB every single year. And again, this doesn’t count the ones that aren’t called passed balls like the pitch Beavan threw last night.
If Eric Wedge is going to bluster about “playing the game the right way” and “being accountable”, Miguel Olivo should be on the bench today. In reality, he should be on the bench most days, as he is a disaster of a baseball player, and has no future with this organization. Since signing back with the M’s, he’s posted a .247 on base percentage. Two-Forty-Seven. He refuses to stop chasing pitches out of the zone, and is the easiest out in the line-up every single night. He’s abysmal defensively. He’s 33, and thankfully in the last year of his contract. That he’s still playing every day for a rebuilding team with a legitimate alternative (or two, if you think Montero is ready to catch occasionally) is a legitimate problem, and Wedge’s love affair with Olivo is not only costing the team wins but undermines this entire concept of accountability.
Miguel Olivo is perhaps of the least fundamentally sound player in the sport. He either cannot or will not improve on his obvious flaws. And yet, he plays. Every single day.
It’s ridiculous and it should come to an end. If Jack needs to release Olivo in order to get him out of the line-up, so be it. Olivo brings nothing to the table that can’t be easily replaced, and the team would be better off with him letting balls roll to the backstop in another uniform.
Game 6, Mariners at Rangers
Yesterday, the M’s got to face a guy making his US/MLB debut, and today they face Neftali Feliz who’ll be making his first MLB start. Feliz was one of baseball’s hottest commodities in 2008/9; he was acquired in the massive Mark Teixeira deal that essentially remade the Rangers, and Feliz quickly rose through the ranks to become a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He had the classic power pitcher’s arsenal and high-90s velocity, and it seemed like it was only a matter of time before he began laying waste to the AL.
The Rangers eased him in to the bigs in 2009 by using him as their set-up man in the bullpen. In 31 innings, he struck out 39 hitters and yielded 8 walks. The next season, the Rangers made the seemingly curious decision to keep him in the bullpen, this time as their closer. As much as it seemed counterproductive to keep your best pitching prospect limited to 1IP stints, it didn’t seem to hurt the club or the pitcher, as Feliz enjoyed another sub-3.0 FIP season and the Rangers won the pennant. In 2011, the Rangers again pulled the plug on a possible role change for Feliz and kept him in the pen, and they again won the pennant with the Venezuelan as their closer. But Feliz seemed like a different pitcher.
Instead of the good control he’d exhibited in 2009-10, he was something of a mess as his walk rate increased from under 7% to nearly 12%. His K rate continued to fall, ending the year at 21.4%, well behind the likes of Craig Kimbrel or Mariano Rivera, but also behind Grant Balfour, Matt Albers, Will Ohman and a scuffling Joakim Soria. A low BABIP (though he’s always had a low BABIP-against) helped his ERA, but his FIP was now a fairly pedestrian 3.57. This spring, the Rangers committed to moving Feliz to the rotation and they’ve stuck with it (Boston, you could learn something here), despite some scares like shoulder soreness this spring.
Feliz hasn’t really demonstrated big platoon splits the way you’d expect given his FB-SL heavy repertoire. He does throw a change, but it’s his fastball that he’s relied on thus far, using it about 80% of the time in 2010-11. The sudden wildness and a curious lack of strikeouts make him a real question mark for a team without many. Since these are the Rangers, even if Feliz struggles, it shouldn’t hurt their chances: they could always swap him out for Alexi Ogando who moved from the pen to the rotation last year with great results. Still, the M’s get yet another shot at an immensely talented pitcher who’s also strangely vulnerable right now.
On the other hand, the M’s are the one team who didn’t seem to notice that Feliz was suddenly human last year. The M’s were famously 0-28 with 13 Ks (about 1/4 of his overall strikeout total on the season) against him, and it says something that what jumped out at me the most from his line were the two walks (“Really? Someone got on base? I don’t remember that”). That said, it’s a new, Cust-less line-up the M’s are trotting out, and it’s one that gave Yu Darvish a rude welcome last night. They were patient, but they also punished mistakes – it’s sort of a truism, but that’s the approach they need to use against Feliz. Making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches and work hard early isn’t some novel strategy, but it’s particularly relevant when facing a converted closer who battled arm troubles in March.
The M’s line-up is loaded with left-handed hitters to counter Feliz’s slider; Miguel Olivo’s the only righty in the group. Jesus Montero returns from the stomach flu to DH, and Munenori Kawasaki’s in the line-up again at SS, as Brendan Ryan’s sore somewhere.
1: Figgins (LF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Ichiro! (RF)
4: Smoak (1B)
5: Seager (3B)
6: Montero (DH)
7: Saunders (CF)
8: Olivo (C)
9: Kawasaki (SS)
SP: Beavan
Gametime’s 5:05
Go M’s