Why I’m OK with Blake Beavan in the Rotation
Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Fly-Outs:
Maybe it’s the league-wide change in strikeout rate that makes low-K pitchers seem so worthless, or maybe we just don’t know what to do with a young pitcher who’s both not a true prospect but not organizational depth either. We mock them, call them names (“He’s like a another Nick Blackburn. Ewwww.”), we tell them to stay in Minnesota where they can be with their own kind, and then we get back to wishcasting that some fireballer like Felipe Paulino or Dan Cortes can put it all together. I think that’s the context for M’s fans reaction to the news that Blake Beavan had been named the M’s 5th starter yesterday ahead of Hisashi Iwakuma.
Here’s the thing, though: it’s not a terrible plan. Hisashi Iwakuma’s 2005 season was marred by a shoulder injury – an injury that limited him to around 129 innings in 2006 and 2007 combined. He returned better than ever, winning an Eiji Sawamura award (Japan’s Cy Young award) in 2008, and posting 200 innings in 2010. But shoulder issues returned in 2011, and he pitched only 119 innings. He was pretty successful in those innings, though offense appeared to be down league-wide last year, but either due to the injury or a long layoff after he was shut down, his stuff’s still not back to his 2008-2009 peak.
At the World Baseball Cup in 2009, Iwakuma’s fastball averaged about 91 MPH and he showed a plus splitter at around 86 mph. Here’s Mike Fast’s pitch fx scouting report from ’09, and you can look at the data from the WBC here. In his first start in camp this year (on 3/5), his velocity was down enough that the Pitch FX algorithm thought he was throwing mostly splitters. His first fastball registered only 86 mph, and he averaged 89 mph for the game. Against the Dodgers on 3/10, he touched 91, and was able to differentiate his splitter and FB enough for Pitch FX to recognize them, but he still averaged 89 mph. In both starts, his velocity actually crept up over the course of the outing, which is encouraging.
It’s not that Iwakuma’s broken, or that he’s not the same pitcher he was – he’s just not that pitcher right now. Let’s not forget how difficult this transition is for Japanese starters: in Japan, Iwakuma started once a week, and never tallied more than 28 starts. Last season, he made only 17, and now he’s not only trying to get his arm strength back, he’s trying to learn to pitch more often too. Given a “normal” spring training schedule, he’d have half a chance, though I’m doubtful that another couple of weeks would be enough. This year’s anything but normal though, and the compressed schedule left him essentially no chance to be ready to throw effectively every five days. Eric Wedge’s plan to ease him in to MLB by serving as a long-reliever seems reasonable given this context, and taking things slowly in April might help the M’s to maximize his effectiveness in the second half.
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Beavan in Rotation, Iwakuma to Bullpen
The M’s just announced on Twitter that the rotation to open 2012 will be Felix, Vargas, Noesi, Millwood, and Beavan. Noesi and Iwakuma will start the two exhibition games, so neither is likely to pitch in the regular season affairs over there.
As we talked about last night, this has been brewing for a few days, but I’m not sure it’s the right call. Beavan has an extremely limited upside, and he hasn’t done anything this spring that should make anyone think he’s more than just a back-end starter. Iwakuma might end up as that same kind of pitcher as well, but we just don’t really know what he is at this point, and I’m more interested in seeing if his success in Japan can translate to the big leagues than I am in whether Beavan can turn into Nick Blackburn.
That said, it’s not like they cut Iwakuma or anything, so if Beavan isn’t very good and he pitches well out of the bullpen, it won’t be too hard to swap them out. This isn’t the kind of thing that is carved in stone, and since the team has alternatives, Beavan will either be good or be replaced.
Cactus League Game 22: White Sox at Mariners
Want to know what the Mariners Opening Day line-up is going to look like? Just look at today’s. With the club leaving for Japan tomorrow afternoon, Wedge has decided to roll out his starting nine for today’s game against the White Sox, and you can make a pretty safe bet that this is the line-up that will take the field against the A’s next week.
Figgins, 3B
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Carp, LF
Olivo, C
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Hernandez, P
If you were wondering if Kyle Seager’s power surge down in Peoria had won him the third base job, you’ve got your answer. He’s probably played himself into more playing time than he might have had otherwise, but the team is apparently committed to the Figgins experiment, and with Saunders also having a strong spring, third base was the only spot for him to play. So, for now, Saunders plays and Seager sits.
My guess is that those two are going to end up splitting time, with Figgins bouncing between 3B and CF for the first few weeks of the year. And, if Figgins is bad, he won’t hold onto a regular job for very long.
We know that Seager, Kawasaki, and Jaso are going to make up 75% of the bench. We don’t yet know who the last guy is going to be. Casper Wells hasn’t had a very good spring, and there’s been some rumblings that he might begin the season in Triple-A. If Wedge sees Figgins as the guy who is going to split time with Saunders in CF, then he could justify not carrying Wells and keeping Carlos Peguero, his favorite pet toy. It’s a lousy idea, since Peguero is bad and any playing time he’d be given would come at the expense of a better player, but it sounds like it’s still a possibility. Both Wells and Peguero are likely to make the trip to Japan, and my guess is that they won’t finalize that roster spot until they have to.
Update: Shawn Camp has been released. Looks like Steve Delebar or Erasmo Ramirez might have beat him out for a job, or this could be an indication that they’re going to use Iwakuma in the bullpen. More to come.
Perception and Reality
If you’ve been following the reports about the Mariners starting pitching candidates this spring, you’ve no doubt read about how Hisashi Iwakuma’s “struggles” have been concerning to the coaching staff, which is part of the reason why there’s a chance he begins the year in relief, rather than as the #3 or #4 starter as expected. The other reason has been the “strong spring” performance of Blake Beavan, who began March on the outside looking in but has pitched well enough to give himself a real chance at starting the year in the rotation.
At least, that’s the story. Now, here’s the reality.
Hisashi Iwakuma: 57 batters faced, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts, 1 home run
Blake Beavan: 59 batters faced, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts, 1 home run
In the three things that a pitcher has some reasonable amount of control over, they’ve performed identically. Yes, Iwakuma’s given up 19 hits and Beavan just 12, but hits allowed aren’t really something that have any predictive value during the regular season, and that goes double for spring training. Evaluating a pitcher based on how many balls are falling in during Cactus League games in March is nothing short of absurd. It’s a bad use of results based analysis during the regular season, when teams are trying to win and rolling out Major League defenders on big league fields – during spring training, it’s insane.
In reality, Beavan hasn’t “performed” any better than Iwakuma this spring. If the Mariners actually do start the season with Beavan in the rotation and Iwakuma in the bullpen, it better be because they saw something in Iwakuma’s arsenal that they didn’t like, or because he showed worse stuff over here than he was throwing in Japan. There could be legitimate reasons for bumping Iwakuma from the rotation and giving Beavan the job instead – those reasons just don’t have anything to do with the results either pitcher actually got when they took the mound.
Cactus League Game 21: Mariners at Reds
Yesterday’s 12-7 loss probably didn’t do a whole lot to settle the 25 man roster; Jason Vargas was terrible, but Jason Vargas isn’t on the bubble. Steve Delabar got blasted, but he was something of a longshot anyway. Kyle Seager homered, which might help his case to at least make the trip to Japan, but the hitting star was probably Justin Smoak who went 3-3 with two walks. The M’s figure to get more production out of the C, CF and 3B spots, though this is largely because they were historically bad in 2010-11. A full year of a healthy, productive Smoak really starts to transform the line-up, however. Instead of Ackley, Montero and please-be-good Ichiro followed by some question marks, they could start putting together a line-up that puts some pressure on pitchers.
Today the M’s play the Reds at Goodyear, as both Kevin Millwood and Hisashi Iwakuma attempt to get stretched out for the regular season. The M’s also play a minor league game, where Erasmo Ramirez will get several innings as well. The big position player battle today concerns the team’s 3B prospects, as Kyle Seager, Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala are all in the line-up. Charlie Furbush and George Sherrill should see some action against the Reds; both pitched yesterday, so this will be a good opportunity to see how Furbush fares in his new role and how ready Sherrill is for opening day.
The line-up:
1: Kawasaki (SS)
2: Rodriguez (2B)
3: Carp (LF)
4: Montero (C)
5: Seager (3B)
6: Liddi (1B)
7: Catricala (DH)
8: Peguero (RF)
9: Wells (CF)
SP: Kevin Millwood
Bob Condotta’s got a story on Franklin Gutierrez’s recuperation from a strained oblique. He’s still not able to throw, and doesn’t know when he’ll get the go-ahead to do so. So, uh, go Mike Saunders!
The M’s are scheduled to make another round of cuts today, as they fly to Japan on Thursday. They’ve got 39 players in camp, and several key battles for the last few spots. Obviously, the bullpen’s the most wide-open, especially after the release of Kuo. I’d guess Chance Ruffin and Steve Delabar haven’t done enough to keep them on the 25-man to start the year, and that Cesar Jimenez is probably not long for the active roster either. 3B’s the other big problem to solve. I think Seager’s on the team, forcing Catricala and probably Liddi down. Keeping Kawasaki means they can’t carry a bench bat like Peguero or Liddi, and Kawasaki has the upper hand over Luis Rodriguez. Liddi/Peguero probably makes the trip to Japan as a member of the taxi squad, but don’t figure to be a part of the 25-man roster at this time. The other big decisions are the #5 starter and whether to go with an 11- or 12-man ‘pen.
Go M’s.
Hong-Chih Kuo Released
When the Mariners signed Hong-Chih Kuo last month, I was a bit surprised that he got a Major League deal. Generally, guys with significant health issues who are also fighting “Steve Blass Disease” get minor league deals that make them prove they can get batters out before they are added to the roster. However, the M’s bet on Kuo returning to prior form, and were willing to give him a non-guaranteed Major League deal in order to secure the potential in case he got back to what he was in 2010. By cutting him now, the team will only owe him a portion of the $500,000 he was due, rather than being on the hook for the full amount had he made the Opening Day roster.
Kuo was absolutely awful during the first few weeks of camp, struggling with his command and showing no signs of the life he used to have on his fastball. During his excellent run with LA, he sat in the mid-90s, but he was more along the lines of 89-92 in Peoria. Bad command of diminished stuff is a problem, and Kuo got beat up all spring long.
His release paves the way for the team to carry Rule 5 reliever Lucas Luetge, who has had a good spring, or potentially shift the bullpen makeup altogether. Hisashi Iwakuma is going to pitch in relief of Kevin Millwood tomorrow, and his mediocre spring – along with the strong effort being put together by Blake Beavan – could mean that Iwakuma starts the year in the long role. That would allow Charlie Furbush to make the team as a lefty reliever if they decided they wanted him in that role, or he could start in Tacoma and the team could carry Luetge.
The bullpen is a bunch of moving pieces right now. The guys who likely have jobs locked up are League, Wilhelmsen, Kelley, Camp, and Sherrill, but the last two spots are in flux. If Beavan gets a starting job, Iwakuma would take one of those jobs, but if they stick with Iwakuma in the rotation, it sounds like Beavan will head to Tacoma, and they might go with Erasmo Ramirez as the long man.
With the team leaving for Japan on Thursday, these decisions will have to be made fairly soon. They’re allowed to take 30 players to Japan and don’t have to decide on a 25 man roster until next week, but they’re going to want to have a pretty decent idea of who is going to work in relief by the end of the week. Kuo’s release clarifies things a bit, but we’ll likely see even more definition in the next day or two.
Cactus League Game 19, Rockies at Mariners
This one is on the TV, so it seems like the right idea to throw this up even if I don’t have much commentary or news.
SS Figgins
2B Kawasaki
DH Ichiro
1B Carp
CF Wells
3B Seager
LF Peguero
RF Wilson
C Jaso
P Noesi
NO MONTERO FOR YOU! YOU’LL GET YOUR CARLOS PEGUERO AT-BATS AND LIKE THEM! Oh wait, Montero looks like he’s on the bench. I don’t know, maybe? He’s been “not feeling well” the past few days or something. I hope it’s not desert fever.
The Times has most of the content for today. Jerry Brewer wrote about Vinnie Catricala. Larry Stone asked a Japanese baseball expert what we should expect in Ichiro’s return. Bob Condotta talked to Carl Willis about pitching. That’s what I’ve got to tide you over for the next forty-five minutes or so.
Cactus League Game 18, Mariners at White Sox
Going into yesterday’s split-squad doubleheader, the Athletics and the Mariners were 1-2 in the Cactus League standings, though I doubt that anyone came away pleased with last night’s clash of the titans, our great preview of the season opener. I mean, the Mariners didn’t even send in a good lineup and pretty much rolled over. Sure, the Athletics won, but would they have had we bothered to play at full strength? It’s almost as if no one takes these games seriously.
Today, the Mariners made seven cuts, optioning OF Trayvon Robinson and re-assigning LHPs Sean Henn and Oliver Perez and RHPs Matt Fox, Aaron Heilman, Josh Kinney, and Jeff Marquez. At the beginning of spring training, someone made a Sporcle quiz of all the players invited to the Mariners spring training camp this year. If I had taken that quiz this morning, without any knowledge of the cuts, I would have gotten Heilman, Robinson, and maybe Perez off that group, since Oliver Perez has been the butt of a few jokes over the years (while still making more money than you ever will see in your lifetime, some clever person would be apt to remind you). Meanwhile, Peguero gets closer and closer to making the team…
Here’s a lineup for today’s game, which you can use to cheat on that quiz if you need to. Freebies!
2B Ackley
CF Saunders
C Olivo
1B Smoak
3B Liddi
LF Peguero
DH Catricala
RF Wilson
SS Brad Miller
P Beavan
That’s what’s going up against Jake Peavy. Yup. This game will be on the radio as the ongoing Manning saga is enough to consume all of our attention on weekdays, but not on weekends.
Today’s news includes a Mike Wilson feature in the Tacoma News Tribune, more talk from the Times about John Jaso playing first base if you didn’t get enough of that yesterday, and Larry Stone informs us over Twitter that the Red Sox have cut Carlos Silva.
Have at you, when the time is right.
Cactus League Game 16/17, Split Squad Day!
So we’re running a day-night not-doubleheader today and the first game starts in a few. This will a Gameday affair as, more than anything else, spring training is about tantalizing. It’s about thinking that guys could work it out because of relevant training or dietary changes and it’s about having the pitcher/hitter you want to see or hear not be on the TV or radio broadcast because you can’t be trusted with that kind of joy just yet. We’ll have to be eased in slowly.
at Brewers, 1 pm
2B Ackley
SS Kawasaki
C Montero
1B Smoak
3B Liddi
CF Saunders
LF Robinson
RF Daniel Carroll
DH Morla
P FELIX
So what happens instead? What happens if you don’t get that thing that you wanted? This is what happens. This is what you get.
at Oakland, 7 pm (RADIO)
CF Figgins
SS Rodriguez
RF Ichiro
LF Carp
DH Wells
3B Seager
1B Jaso
C Sucre
SS Noriega
P Iwakuma
Here’s something that caught my eye in the futility of spring training stats the other day. Guess the third baseman!
A: 28 AB, 5 R, 8 H, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 7/0 K/BB, .286/.286/.500
B: 18 AB, 7 R, 7 H, 4 2B, 4 RBI, 3/3 K/BB, .389/.522/.611
Player A is Seager! Player B is Liddi! Wacky, huh? Liddi has also come to spring training claiming to have a new approach, which may be a good thing since in the winter leagues, he was terrible. Whether or not this change amounts to anything is up to a larger sample to decide.
Cactus League Game 15, Giants at Mariners
TV again! Tonight, the Mariners are set to unveil their series of 2012 commercials to a broadcast audience, but you’ve likely already seen them because you’re using the internet, you lucky dog, you!
2B Seager
CF Wells
LF Carp
3B Catricala
LF Peguero
C Olivo
RF Wilson
DH Sucre
SS Rodriguez
P Erasmo Ramirez
We won’t get to see New Saunders again, which is a shame. Kawasaki, who had a home run and a single in the B game, is also absent, as is Montero, who doubled earlier this morning. But we do get some additional looks at Catricala and Wells (Peguero too, if that’s your thing) along with our first peeks at Seager and Carp. The big thing to pay attention to will be Erasmo, who seems to have worked his way into the discussion as either a starter or long man in the bullpen.
In additional positive news, Moore and Guti are both making progress coming back from their respective injuries. Hooray!