What Now?
With the signing of Hisashi Iwakuma now official, the team’s off-season shopping list has gotten shorter. So, I figured it was probably time to take a look at the roster as it currently stands, and what the options are going forward from here. First, here’s what the Mariners could put together on Opening Day based on what’s already in the organization.
| Position | Player | PA/IP | WAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||
| C | John Jaso | 300 | 1.0 | $0.5 |
| 1B | Justin Smoak | 600 | 2.0 | $0.5 |
| 2B | Dustin Ackley | 600 | 3.0 | $1.5 |
| SS | Brendan Ryan | 500 | 2.0 | $1.8 |
| 3B | Kyle Seager | 600 | 1.5 | $0.5 |
| LF | Casper Wells | 400 | 1.0 | $0.5 |
| CF | Franklin Gutierrez | 500 | 2.5 | $5.8 |
| RF | Ichiro Suzuki | 600 | 2.5 | $18.0 |
| DH | Mike Carp | 500 | 1.0 | $0.5 |
| Bench | ||||
| C | Miguel Olivo | 300 | 1.0 | $3.8 |
| IF | Chone Figgins | 300 | – | $9.5 |
| IF | Munenori Kawasaki | 200 | – | $0.8 |
| OF | Trayvon Robinson | 200 | – | $0.5 |
| Rotation | ||||
| SP1 | Felix Hernandez | 220 | 5.0 | $19.2 |
| SP2 | Michael Pineda | 200 | 3.0 | $0.5 |
| SP3 | Jason Vargas | 180 | 2.0 | $4.5 |
| SP4 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 150 | 1.0 | $2.0 |
| SP5 | Blake Beavan | 150 | 0.5 | $0.5 |
| Bullpen | ||||
| CL | Brandon League | 60 | 1.0 | $4.5 |
| RHP | Tom Wilhelmsen | 60 | 0.5 | $0.5 |
| LHP | George Sherrill | 40 | 0.5 | $1.1 |
| RHP | Shawn Kelley | 60 | 0.5 | $0.8 |
| LHP | Sean Henn | 50 | – | $0.5 |
| RHP | Chance Ruffin | 60 | – | $0.5 |
| LHP | Charlie Furbush | 70 | – | $0.5 |
| Totals | 31.5 | $79.2 |
(Quick note – the PA and IP totals don’t add up to the totals that a team accumulates over a full season, as no one plays the whole year with just 25 guys. Assume that the other ~800 PA and 150 IP will be filled by replacement level performances, and thus, won’t change the projections by any reasonable amount.)
Since a replacement level team will win about 43 games, a roster projected to produce about +31.5 WAR is around a 75 win club. This roster isn’t that of a contender, but it’s also a bit better than is usually given credit for. It’s not good, but it’s not awful, and with a few more upgrades (given that they have about $15M left in the budget, they’re clearly not done spending), the M’s could project as a .500-ish team for 2012, especially if you make some more aggressive projections on some of the high-variance guys on the roster.
From that group, I’d say there are three roster spots that could reasonably offer the hope of meaningful upgrades – the infield spot being filled by Chone Figgins, the outfield spot currently held by Trayvon Robinson, and the fifth starter spot possessed by Blake Beavan. The names projected for the back end of the bullpen might not be the guys who end up in those roles, but you’re not going to see significant value additions based on swapping out a different left-handed middle reliever, no matter which member of The Pile (TM: Lookout Landing) ends up with the job.
So, let’s focus on the three remaining roster upgrades, and look at the different options the team has for rounding out the roster.
There’s no real doubt that the Mariners priority is to get someone to take Robinson’s roster spot, and he is only penciled in now because that guy hasn’t been acquired yet. I could have written “empty” in that spot and it would have been just as accurate. The only question is what type of player this spot will go to and what position on the field he’ll play, as that variable will cause other player’s roles to shift.
Obviously, this would be the roster spot that Prince Fielder would fill if Jack Z decided to use the rest of his budget to bring him to Seattle. In that scenario, Fielder would displace Carp at DH (or Smoak at first base, who would then move to DH, so either way the result is the same), and he’d move into a job share with Casper Wells in left field. While replacing a replacement level player in Robinson with a roughly +5 win player in Fielder is a big upgrade, the overall effect would be a bit smaller, as you also have to reduce the amount of playing time that Carp/Wells would get, since they’d be sharing a job rather than being penciled in as regulars.
Also, if the Mariners went with that alignment, they’d probably need to keep Figgins and ask him to take up the outfield again, as the team can’t really afford to have a roster with just three legitimate outfielders (Carp is one in name only), especially given Gutierrez’s potentially lingering health issues. Signing a 1B/DH means that they would need Figgins to serve as a part-time outfielder, or at least be available to play the OF, so dumping him becomes less feasible.
To sign Fielder, the Mariners would obviously need to backload the deal somewhat to make him fit into the budget, and he’d be the last addition they could really afford to make. So, while they’d likely get something like a +4 win upgrade from having Fielder take Robinson’s roster spot, that move would also mean that the team was probably going into 2012 with a Seager/Figgins tandem at third base and a Beavan/Furbush battle for the #5 starter spot, with the loser shifting into the long reliever role out of the bullpen.
While this may be the preferred option for many, we’ve talked about how this isn’t the only way the M’s can upgrade that roster spot. As noted in my suggestion that they pursue Will Venable, they could simply add another outfielder to the mix, and could really benefit from having a left-handed hitter who could also cover center field from time to time. Bringing in a guy like Venable (about +2 win player) to replace Robinson and pick up some of the missing OF at-bats that would currently need to go to Figgins would allow them to keep Carp at DH – his best position – and give them the ability to play the match-ups with three outfielders covering two spots. Nearly all of the playing time that Venable would get is currently slotted to go to replacement level guys, so the team would get the full value of his +2 wins.
Considering that his salary would be only around $2 million for 2012, going that direction would leave the M’s with about $13 million to spend on the other two roster spots. And, with the outfield depth issue addressed, versatility wouldn’t be as large of a need, so you wouldn’t need to keep Figgins around for his ability to cover multiple positions. With that remaining money, they could sign one of the better free agent starters left on the market (say, for instance, Paul Maholm, who will probably end up signing for something in the $5-$6 million range) and then target a mid-level right-handed third baseman who could split time with Seager and potentially spend some time at 1B/DH as well, if the need arose.
While my favorite target for that role ended up with the Pirates, there are other options out there who could fit the bill – for instance, Mark Reynolds. He’s a bit of a disaster defensively at third base and his contact problems limit him to being just a decent hitter even with his top-notch power, but his problems with the glove would be limited in a job share with Seager, and he’d give them depth and a right-handed power bat who could get some playing time at 1B/DH as well. Reynolds is due to make $7.5 million in 2012 and then has a $500,000 buyout of his 2013 option, so the M’s would be on the hook for about $8 million if they picked him up from the Orioles. Assuming any deal for him would include Figgins going the other way (with the Mariners paying most of his remaining salary), the total net cost would probably be in the $6-$7 million range, just about what they’d have left after signing a pitcher like Maholm.
The total value of adding Venable over Robinson (+2 wins), Reynolds over Figgins (+1 win), and Maholm over Beavan (+1.5 wins) is actually slightly higher than just adding Fielder over Robinson and calling it a day. By spreading the money around and making three upgrades instead of one, the team could find themselves projecting just as well for 2012 as they would by signing Fielder, and they’d be in a better long term position by retaining financial flexibility and getting a better understanding of what they can expect from some of the kids already on the roster. Having three starters at the back end under contract for just one year would also give them the ability to let Danny Hultzen and James Paxton develop on their own timetable, but would give the organization solid potential trade bait during the summer if either was showing that they were ready for the big league rotation. In putting a solid team on the field in 2012 and keeping the options open for the future, this is my preferred plan of action.
However, it’s not the only alternative. If Fielder signs elsewhere, the Mariners will still have roughly $15 million to spend, and they could pursue other free agent hitters who would fit as LF/DH options. Guys like Carlos Pena or Luke Scott could become targets, and the team could choose to spend some of their remaining money on a guy who could offer some left-handed power at a lower price. Signing either should still leave enough money to pursue another free agent pitcher, so you’re probably looking at a +3 win upgrade between those two additions, and you’d get to keep whatever prospect you had to surrender to get a guy like Venable. The team wouldn’t be quite as good as in either of the other two scenarios, but it might be an easier alternative to pull off, since it’s just two free agent signings instead of a couple of trades.
My guess is that the remainder of the team’s off-season will resemble one of these three options:
A. Sign Fielder, call it a day, go forward with current roster and him.
B. Acquire an outfielder, third baseman, and a starting pitcher, spending just a bit on each.
C. Sign a non-Fielder DH and a starting pitcher.
In any of these scenarios, the team probably projects as something like a +78 to +80 win team, so there’s not a huge difference in expected performance no matter which path the team chooses. Obviously, the sign-Fielder path is the splashiest, but to me, it doesn’t result in a roster that’s clearly better than pursuing upgrades through other avenues, and obviously a Venable/Reynolds/Maholm trio would come without the massive risks of signing Fielder to a long term deal.
There are certainly options on the table for the Mariners. Reasonable people can differ on the merits of pursuing one strategy or another, but don’t let anyone tell you that the team “has to sign Prince Fielder” or that their moves to this point will be a failure if they don’t get “a big bat” to go with them. The team has done a really nice job of adding solid role players to fill gaping holes in the roster, and with a few more smart moves, the team could be in a pretty solid position going forward. If Fielder’s price ends up being reasonable, these low-cost additions have given them the flexibility to fit him into the budget, but there’s still plenty of ways to spend $15 million and make this team a respectable one for the 2012 season.
M’s Officially Sign Hisashi Iwakuma
As rumored a few days ago, the M’s have come to terms with RHP Hisashi Iwakuma on a one year contract. Per Jerry Crasnick, he’s guaranteed just $1.5 million in salary, and has incentives based on starts and innings pitched that could push the total value of the deal up to $4.9 million.
In other words, it’s a freaking steal. For context, he signed for less guaranteed money than Yuniesky Betancourt, Fernando Rodney, and Nate McLouth, all of whom were basically replacement level players last year. If he stays healthy and pitches well enough to make nearly every start all season long, he’ll earn about as much as Juan Rivera or Matt Capps.
We don’t really know what the Mariners have in Iwakuma, but at this price, there’s literally no downside. They’re paying him like he’s a mediocre middle reliever, and based on his previous history, he’s got at least some chance of turning into a mid-rotation starter. If he pitches as well as could reasonably be expected, they’ll likely have a +2 to +3 win pitcher for a fraction of his value. If he’s useless, well, then they’re out $1 million more than the league minimum.
This is about as good a deal as could have been hoped for to fill out the rotation, honestly. I would have been a fan of signing a guy like Chris Capuano or Jeff Francis, but given the price, this is pretty clearly the better option. The move offers the team rotation depth at no real cost, with the chance of giving them a pretty solid innings eater if things go well. And, given that he’s just 30-years-old, a successful first season could easily lead to an extension that could allow him to remain part of the rotation for the future as well.
There’s absolutely nothing to complain about here. A pretty terrific move for the organization, and one that can’t be seen as anything other than a positive.
Prince Fielder, Opt-Outs, And A Contract I Would Support
It’s no secret that I’ve been generally opposed to the idea of giving Prince Fielder a long term, big money contract. I think his value on the field is fairly overrated and the side benefits of having him on the team are mostly made up and unsupported by facts. In general, I’d rather the team spread their money around to fill multiple holes and upgrade the roster rather than going all-in on Fielder, and have said that my maximum offer to Fielder would be something like $120 million over six years. Even if the market for Fielder never does develop in any real way, that seems unlikely to get it done, as it’s hard to see Boras letting Fielder settle for a contract less than what Adrian Gonzalez got back in March, when he wasn’t even a free agent.
Now, reports are beginning to surface that not only is Boras looking for a lot of guaranteed money, he’s also going to look for an opt-out clause for his client as well. This would give Fielder the duel benefits of long term security (if he performs poorly or gets hurt) as well as the ability to raise his future earnings if he performs well. It’s a win-win for the player, and in general, opt-outs are a terrible idea for an organization. In most cases, an opt-out for a player essentially eliminates any chance the contract has to turn out in the organization’s favor, while still saddling the team with all the risks of a long term guarantee to a player who might not be worth the price.
However, I do believe there is a way that the Mariners could satisfy Boras’ need to beat prior precedent (in this case, the Gonzalez extension), give him the opt-out clause that would let Fielder potentially increase his earnings by hitting free agency again in a few years, and make the contract work for the organization. In fact, including the opt-out might be the best way for the Mariners to make a run at Fielder while still keeping the contract offer to a reasonable price.
To help Boras save face, let’s put the total value of the contract at $155 million over seven years, $1 million more than what Gonzalez got from Boston on his extension. It’s not Mark Teixeira money, but Fielder isn’t as valuable as Teixeira was when he reached free agency and the Yankees aren’t involved in the bidding here, so Boras will just have to go pound sand if he’s set on beating that mark. 7/155 at least gets him a deal that won’t look like a total failure, especially if he can flaunt that he also got an opt-out for Fielder that could let him land another big deal in a few years.
How does 7/155 with an opt-out work for the Mariners? Simply put, you structure the salaries so that the organization gets a lot of the projected value from the contract up front, to the point where Fielder would have to perform at an elite level in order to want to use the opt-out. For instance, the annual salaries could go something like this:
2012: $13 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $16 million
2015: $25 million (player option for remainder of contract)
2016: $25 million
2017: $25 million
2018: $30 million
2019: $25 million (team option, $5 million buyout)
This contract would essentially break down into three parts – $45 million guaranteed over the first three years, then Fielder would have an option to exercise four more years for $105 million, with the team finally having the ability to void the eighth year for a final $5 million. It could shake out as being 3/45 (if Fielder opts out), 7/155 (if Fielder doesn’t opt-out and team buys out final year), or 8/175 (if Fielder doesn’t opt out and team picks up eighth year option).
By significantly backloading the salaries until after Fielder’s opt-out, it essentially transfers nearly all of the potential surplus value from the deal into the first three seasons. Most long term contracts are value for the team at the front end and value for player at the back end, but this kind of aggressive backloading would shift that even further, and would ensure that the team would have already received nearly 100% of the value of the contract before he opts-out. If he plays well enough to justify walking away from 4/110 in order to get another guaranteed year or two tacked on (much like what CC Sabathia just did with New York), then this deal will have almost certainly worked out for the Mariners, as he’d have had to have been a monster in his first three years to forfeit a $27.5M AAV from ages 31-34.
While an opt-out on a balanced salary contract is essentially lose-lose for the team, the terms could be structured in such a way that would greatly reduce the odds of there being much value lost by the organization if the opt-out is exercised. Essentially, you make Fielder walk away from so much money that there’s no real chance that the team would be losing a significant asset, even if Fielder had performed well and justified his price tag.
The opt-out would give Fielder the flexibility to say that he’s giving the organization a chance to turn themselves around while he and Felix are both on the team, but he’s not locked into a potential loser for the rest of his career. It would also give him a chance to opt-out and negotiate those last couple of option years into guaranteed years if he performs well, and Boras could sell the contract as having total potential value near Teixeira’s deal and being superior to what Gonzalez got. It might not be the contract of Boras’ dreams, but in this market, it’s probably at least a competitive offer.
Yes, it takes my 6/120 maximum and throws it out the window, adding an extra year and $35 million in guaranteed money that I think could probably be spent better by pursuing a different strategy. However, the low base salaries over the next three years reduce the strain of having two market value stars on the payroll at the same time, giving the team the flexibility to potentially still pursue other upgrades. In this scenario, the team could potentially still afford to go after a guy like Will Venable and perhaps a decent veteran third baseman as well.
It would also essentially give the team a three year window to win with Felix/Fielder as the core of the team. If they managed to turn it around and challenge for the AL West, attendance and revenues would likely improve, and the team could get a bump from their television contract in 2015 that would help them absorb another extension for Felix and Fielder sticking around for his big paydays at the back end of his contract. If it didn’t work, Felix would probably be trade bait, and Fielder might be more inclined to opt-out and go somewhere else, at which point the team would be free of both of their big money obligations, allowing the team to reboot and go in another direction.
It’s not the plan I would pursue if I was Jack Z, but if the team is serious about making Fielder a competitive offer without hamstringing the organization, this is probably the best path they could take. By dangling the opt-out clause to get an extremely backloaded contract and a lower AAV than Boras might want otherwise, the team might be able to make an offer that gives Fielder enough flexibility to accept the deal. If they’re dead set on getting closer to $200 million guaranteed, the team should just walk away, but if Boras is open to this kind of deal, then there might be room for a contract that could work for both sides.
M’s Close To Deal With Hisashi Iwakuma
Over the last week or so, various reports have been circling that the Mariners were closing in on a deal with Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma. Today, we get the best confirmation of those reports, in the form of a report from Sponichi (in Japanese, but helpfully translated by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker) where Iwakuma is quoted as saying:
“We’ve received terms from a number of clubs, but considering where I’m needed and an environment my family can live in, at present we’re closest to a contract with the Mariners,” Iwakuma said.
Generally, you don’t say something like this publicly unless you’re pretty darn close to a deal with the team, so we can comfortably guess that the two are pretty far along in negotiations. It doesn’t appear to be a done deal, but it also seems fairly likely that the M’s are going to end up with Iwakuma.
We’ve talked about the team’s need for another starting pitcher (or two) all off-season, and Iwakuma checks most of the boxes of things the team was looking for – a strike-throwing innings eater who could fill in at the back of the rotation without costing an arm and a leg. A year ago, Iwakuma seemed to be potentially a lot more than that, as the A’s bid $19 million to win his rights via the posting process, but they never came to terms with him on a contract, he stayed in Japan, and he took a step back in scout’s eyes, mostly related to a drop in velocity. His surface numbers still look good, but it’s important to keep in mind that Japan played with a new ball in 2011, and offense declined precipitously, so his performance relative to league average wasn’t as good as it had been in prior years.
As a guy who sits in the high-80s and didn’t miss a lot of bats in Japan, he profiles as a back-end starter, but there’s a lot of uncertainty with pitchers coming over from Japan. Hiroki Kuroda wasn’t hyped as anything particularly special and also posted pedestrian strikeout rates in Japan, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball since arriving in the U.S. While people focus on the high profile failures like Kei Igawa and Hideki Irabu, the fact is that Japanese pitchers have performed pretty well in MLB, and there’s certainly a chance that Iwakuma performs better than his profile might suggest. There’s also the chance that his velocity keeps deteriorating and he gets lit up like a Christmas tree. There’s just a lot of variance here, and trying to figure out exactly what to expect isn’t easy.
Still, it sounds like he’s not going to be overly expensive and probably isn’t going to require more than a two year commitment, as Japanese players often give the M’s a bit of a discount due to the positive attributes it holds in terms of community and travel. I don’t really know exactly what to expect from Iwakuma, but getting a potentially solid starting pitcher at what is probably not a super high cost can’t be considered a bad thing.
Will Venable
Over the weekend, the Padres acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the White Sox in exchange for a pair of prospects, and in the process, created something of a logjam of outfielders from players remaining on their roster. Quentin is expected to take over as the regular left fielder next to Cameron Maybin, and his presence turns right field into a job share between some combination of five players: Will Venable, Chris Denorfia, Kyle Blanks, Jesus Guzman, and Mark Kotsay.
In concert with the Yonder Alonso acquisition (which blocks off playing time at first base, where Blanks and Guzman could have also been utilized), Quentin’s presence essentially means that there won’t be room for two of those five players on San Diego’s roster, and in reality, only two of the remaining three will get much in the way of regular playing time. So, while the team could theoretically just send Blanks back to Triple-A to clear a roster spot, they probably are best off trading one of Venable, Denofria, or Guzman, since there won’t be enough at-bats to go around for all three, especially with Veteran Leader Mark Kotsay getting some playing time for unknown reasons.
Enter the Mariners, who are in need of another outfielder – preferably a left-handed hitter who could form a useful platoon with Casper Wells in left and offer enough defensive value to potentially earn some playing time in center field if Franklin Gutierrez doesn’t rebound from his disastrous 2011 season. It would also be nice if that player had a little bit of power, specifically to right field, in order to give the team an offensive boost against RHPs and to take advantage of how Safeco Field plays.
You may have already guessed, but I basically just described Will Venable to a tee. He’s not much of a household name, since he’s spent his entire career toiling in Petco Park, but the 28-year-old is probably one of the more underrated players in the sport. His raw numbers have been held down by the offensive sinkhole that is San Diego’s home park, but even a basic park adjustment shows that his .250/.321/.410 line is good for a 107 wRC+, meaning that his offensive performance has been seven percent better than average to date.
For left-handed pull-power guys playing in San Diego, though, a basic park adjustment isn’t the tool you want to use to project their performance upon changing teams. Petco is basically the inverse of Safeco, as its cavernous right field swallows up fly balls much in the same way that Safeco does balls to left-center, so LH hitters are disproportionately affected by the park. This is why the Padres traded for the right-handed Quentin and targeted Alonso – a left-handed batter with opposite fielder power – by the way. If you look deeper at Venable’s numbers, you can see potential for quite a bit more than he’s been to date.
Home: 622 PA, .226/.304/.383, 93 wRC+
Away: 682 PA, .272/.336/.435, 119 wRC+
When not hitting at Petco, he’s been about as productive as Nick Swisher (122 wRC+), Carlos Pena (119 wRC+), Andre Ethier (119 wRC+), or Jay Bruce (116 wRC+) was last year. I’m pretty sure everyone would be totally okay with the team acquiring any of those four to improve the offense, yes? While we can’t just take his road stats and extrapolate straight from that, especially given the somewhat small sample size, adding in Venable’s batted ball profile to our knowledge of what Petco and Safeco do to left-handed pull-power guys does offer additional confidence that he could thrive in Seattle.
Pull: 370 PA, .378/.377/.696, 195 wRC+
Center: 279 PA, .366/.360/.505, 140 wRC+
Opposite: 188 PA, .266/.259/.431, 85 wRC+
44% of his balls in play are hit to right field, and when he pulls the ball, he’s a fantastic hitter with a lot of power. Right field is the best place to hit the ball in Safeco, and the park has systematically rewarded players with this kind of skillset. For instance, Raul Ibanez has nearly this exact same profile on balls in play, and his career line at Safeco was .285/.357/.474.
Taking Venable out of Petco and putting him in Safeco would provide a significant boon to his home performance, and as noted, he’s already been a pretty good hitter on the road during his career. With continued judicious platooning (the Padres have ensured that 80% of his PAs have come against RHPs since he’s pretty lousy against southpaws, and the M’s would want to continue that trend), Venable could easily settle in as an Ibanez-caliber hitter.
Now, we weren’t exactly known for our Ibanez love during his tenure here, so why would I be advocating that the team bring in a 29-year-old on a similar career path? Well, our problem with Ibanez was primarily on defense, as his glove gave back a lot of the runs his bat created, and he probably should have been a DH for most of the latter part of his career. Venable, on the other hand, is a top notch athlete and a pretty terrific defensive outfielder – 23% of his career innings have come in center field, and every decent defensive metric rates him as well above average in a corner and good enough to handle center field.
Venable’s defensive value and ability to hit right-handed pitching make him a perfect fit for the Mariners roster. The team could essentially use him along with Wells and Gutierrez as a three-headed monster in LF/CF, splitting up the roughly 1,400 plate appearances that will go to those two positions based on the opposing pitcher’s handedness and Eric Wedge‘s desire to keep everyone fresh and rested. He’d also be a nice bat off the bench on days where a left-hander starts and the team needs a pinch-hit option when the opposing manager goes to the bullpen.
Venable doesn’t have superstar potential, but if you get him out of Petco Park and into an environment better suited for his overall abilities, he’s probably a +2.5 to +3.0 win player. As a super-two arbitration eligible player, he’ll likely make a little less than $2 million for 2012, and the team would control his rights through 2015. He’s exactly what this team should be shopping for right now – an undervalued asset with upside who could provide value both in the short term and down the road.
Venable will provide a substantial improvement and roster flexibility for a low salary and a moderate cost in terms of trade. Ideally, I’d like to see the team try to get a package of Venable and Anthony Rizzo, which would give them both legitimate 2012 value and a potential power-hitting 1B/DH for the future, but even just getting Venable would allow the team to use Mike Carp at DH, his natural position. I know, I know, it’s not signing Prince Fielder, but it’s the kind of move that pushes the organization forward, improves the roster on the field, and allows the team to continue to upgrade other positions rather than putting all their eggs in one overweight basket.
With the holidays behind us, the off-season movement should pick up traction again. The Mariners should look to pick up Venable before another intelligent organization picks him off and reaps the rewards of saving him from San Diego.
Assorted New Year’s Musings
I’ve been away, thanks to a combination of work and family duties that I can’t believe I even bring up in light of Dave’s recent post. People often used to malign sabermetrically-oriented writers like Dave as automatons; robots more interested in numbers than the grand arc of a baseball season, or more interested in nitpicking a hit-and-run than in the compelling story of a single game. I’d like to think that Dave’s had a major hand in discrediting that old saw. I’d rather read Dave’s writing here or at Fangraphs than just about anything, and it’s not because his posts are laden with math and statistics. On the other hand, Dave has maintained a blogging pace that puts most professional bloggers to shame, and he’s done it while whipping cancer. I needed a break because “work is hard.” In sum, I think it’s time to bring back the “Dave is a robot” meme.
1: The big story this off-season has been the Rangers and Angels leveraging new TV deals to make a splash on the free-agent (or posting) market. The Rangers replaced CJ Wilson with Yu Darvish while the Angels cashed in their TV revenue for the top free agent hitter and pitcher. Beyond the sheer oddity of a team in the AL West outbidding everyone for three of the year’s most sought-after targets, I’m stunned at how well-timed both the Rangers and the Angels spending sprees are. The Angels new TV contract allowed them to spend more money now, and the addition of a second wild card meant that such spending had a greater chance of being rewarded with a playoff berth. The Rangers built a formidable farm system, then very quickly augmented that homegrown core when their TV contract made such expenditures possible. The M’s renegotiated their contract with FOX Sports (now ROOT Sports) in 2007, and spent the proceeds on the likes of Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, and trading for Jose Vidro/Horacio Ramirez. They can renegotiate their current deal in 2015 (or wait until it expires in 2017), but it’s not clear where they’re going to be vis a vis the Angels and Rangers at that time. This isn’t about needing a franchise player or a middle-of-the-order-bat to build around – the M’s need to determine what they currently *have* in order to spend any new money wisely. Is Kyle Seager a starting IF for a contender? Is Caspar Wells a first-division corner outfielder? Is Justin Smoak good?
2: Dave’s absolutely right that a single player doesn’t win a division, and that the M’s should avoid a panic-addled contract offer solely to keep up with the suddenly flush Joneses in their division. Throwing money at a free-agent now may not bring a playoff run, may not bring in fans, and may be a burden down the road. The M’s don’t need to respond, however much it may feel like they need to. Unfortunately, that’s the problem. The fact that the Rangers and Angels seem to have made important acquisitions is almost irrelevant; the problem predates the offseason.
You’ve all seen the ZiPS projections, and Dave’s recap of the ugliness therein. So, uh, how about the CAIRO projections? Any better? Yes and no. ZiPS had three average hitters in the M’s organization in Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp and Vinnie Catricala. CAIRO has Ackley right at average (2 WAR, with a much uglier slash line of .250/.337/.379), Catricala a step back at 1.6 WAR (.233/.301/.360) and Mike Carp as simultaneously the best hitter and least valuable player in this troika (.252/.319/.419). The position adjustment hurts Carp, and the system doesn’t see much in Ackley’s minor league track record to justify a rosier projection. Ichiro looks better in CAIRO, but Kyle Seager looks worse. Smoak/Gutierrez look virtually identical (horrific) in both.
On the face of it, the offense looks even worse than ZiPS – but are the M’s a clear 100 loss team? Well, no. The pitching side of the ledger is better, as CAIRO thinks a bit more of guys like Jason Vargas, Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan. Add it all up, and the M’s come in with a 77 win projection (thanks to a stingy runs allowed of 668, comparable to last year’s 675), and beat out the rebuilding Oakland A’s.
3: So, about those rebuilding A’s… The A’s response to the Angels/Rangers arms race has been to sell off some of their assets, making a young team even younger. Gone are Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey and Trevor Cahill, in return for an army of prospects including Jarrod Parker, AJ Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris, Josh Reddick and Colin Cowgill. I don’t think these were strictly reactionary moves, but the A’s apparently believed that they didn’t have the flexibility to add offense given what they’d committed to Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Kurt Suzuki (not to mention what they’d have to pay Gonzalez/Bailey in arbitration). Without such an influx, they couldn’t keep up with the Rangers and Angels. No, they didn’t have much committed to those players, but these are the A’s, and so they turned them in for another group of talented, pre-arb players. I get it; this may be the best the A’s can do until their situation improves (new stadium, better TV deal, new ownership, move to San Jose), but it’s got to be frustrating for everyone involved. The team developed some good young pitching, and now the best they can do is swap them out for prospects and hope – hope that Jarrod Parker’s Tommy John surgery went well, that Cowgill can be a major league starter and not a fourth OF, that Tommy Milone’s fringy stuff plays in the AL West, etc.
As bad as that sounds, the A’s at least have enough valuable assets that they can make moves like this. They see their window from 2012-2014 closing, and they’re able to acquire some pieces for 2015 instead. That sounds like kicking the can down the road, but if they’re actually able to relocate the can from Oakland to San Jose, they could conceivably add payroll and potentially negotiate a new TV deal of their own (everyone’s doing it). They’re in a better position than many teams, though I’m sure some A’s fans are growing sick of hearing that. The A’s system had been a little thin, with the stumbles of Chris Carter and Michael Taylor, but with Michael Choice, Grant Green, Sonny Gray and now Parker, Cole, and Norris, there’s a bit more for A’s fans to dream on. Still, pushing their window out means increasing risk. The A’s are now hoping that a pitching prospect (danger) develops as expected following his Tommy John surgery (DANGER!). Their prized SS prospect is now a sort-of-prized OF prospect and their top overall prospect has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. I understand it, and I think I might’ve done the same in David Forst/Billy Beane’s shoes, but attempting to compete in 2015 or so means battling four teams, not three (yes, I know one of them is the Astros, but still) and it means potentially facing three teams with lucrative TV contracts, not two. That there’s no alternative doesn’t make it any easier.
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JEFF FRANCIS WATCH 2012
(Click this link, then come back).
Hello and welcome to the first in what I guess now qualifies as a series of JEFF FRANCIS WATCHes. Our first JEFF FRANCIS WATCH is today, because PRINCE FIELDER isn’t the only free agent alive. We are writing this because Sullivan is keeping everyone abreast of the PRINCE FIELDER landscape, but no one is keeping an eye on JEFF FRANCIS’ backyard.
Has JEFF FRANCIS signed a contract?
No.
Has JEFF FRANCIS signed a contract with the Seattle Mariners?
No.
Is JEFF FRANCIS close to signing a contract?
I completely and honestly have no idea.
What does your gut tell you?
I think the Mariners are going to sign JEFF FRANCIS, because he’s left-handed, from British Columbia, and they watched CHARLIE FURBUSH try to get right-handers out last year.
What is the latest?
There is no latest. JEFF FRANCIS doesn’t have a windbag for an agent, so he’s not really in the news much.
Are the Mariners still in the thick of things?
It’s JEFF FRANCIS – it’s more of a wispy field of grass than any kind of thicket.
Haha, “thick of things.”
Jeff Francis is pretty skinny, actually.
Merry Christmas
For Christmas this year, USSM would like to present you with gifts of not doing things. We would like to offer you no Felix Hernandez trade rumors, a day free of speculation about Prince Fielder, and a lack of doom and gloom about the team’s future. We hope you enjoy freedom from these annoyances.
More seriously, though, enjoy your holiday with friends and family. I’m thrilled to be spending this Christmas at home with my wife, just having gotten out of the hospital on Thursday. Early in the week, it was possible that I’d have to spend this Christmas in the hospital, tied to an IV, but thankfully my immune system recovered on Thursday and I’m able to enjoy this Christmas with loved ones.
In fact, as long as the leukemia doesn’t return, I should be done with hospitalizations entirely. I have one more bone marrow biopsy on January 10th, but if that comes back clean, we’ll go into maintenance mode and reduce my check-up schedule from twice a week to once a month. While there’s still a chance that the leukemia could return (and force unwanted scenarios like a bone marrow transplant), we’re hoping and believing that the four rounds of chemotherapy were effective in beating this thing back, and I plan on living long enough to see this team win again.
Cancer has a nice way of making you appreciate the things you have, but hopefully that perspective can be gained even without a nasty medical diagnosis. For each of us, let’s enjoy what we have, and look forward to many more years of rooting on the Mariners together.
Rangers Win Darvish Posting
You’ve probably heard by now, but the Rangers won the bidding for Yu Darvish, putting up $51.7 million to just barely edge out what Boston paid for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka back in 2006. They now have a month to negotiate with Darvish on a contract, and given their interest level and his desire to pitch in the US, it’s extremely likely that a deal will get done. While it’s not a guarantee, Darvish will likely join the Rangers next year.
I know this is going to ignite even more of the “we have to respond!” panic that came up when the Angels signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. I know the natural sentiment is to see what Texas and Anaheim are doing and feel like the Mariners are doomed unless they play the same game. I just ask that instead of panicking, you look at baseball history and realize that one player just doesn’t make that big of a difference.
The Mariners aren’t screwed any more so now than they were when they traded Ken Griffey Jr in 2000 or watched Alex Rodriguez leave for Texas in 2001. History is absolutely littered with teams who made big off-season splashes, were anointed champions during the winter, and then got hit in the face with the reality that baseball is a team sport full of unexpected variation. Last winter, the Red Sox were the team that landed two superstars and added them to an already stacked roster, and yet, they failed to make the playoffs. The Phillies added Cliff Lee to build an all-time great rotation and got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The White Sox spent $119 million on players last winter, and after a complete disaster, they’re now in rebuilding mode and selling off talent left and right.
The Angels and Rangers are quality opponents, and the Mariners are going to have to improve their roster to keep up with those two teams. That reality doesn’t call for panic, though – it requires a steady, non-emotional hand that sees the bigger picture and realizes that the Mariners need to simply concentrate on adding to the talent level in the organization. We can have a reasonable conversation about the most effective ways to do that, but there’s no reason to freak out and think that the moves that Texas and Anaheim have made this winter means that the Mariners future is bleak unless they overreact and (sign Fielder, raise the payroll, trade Felix, insert other emotional reactions here).
The AL West is full of good organizations. Those good organizations are going to continue to compete for talent and push each other for the division title. This is true today, and it was true a month ago. As long as the Mariners keep their eyes on the prize, they’ll be fine. Don’t freak out.
M’s Sign George Sherrill
As first reported by Jason Churchill this afternoon, the Mariners have come to terms with George Sherrill on a one year deal, apparently worth just over $1 million with some incentives that could push the total a bit higher.
The M’s have talked about adding a veteran to the bullpen all winter, and the team was also a bit low on left-handers, so Sherrill checks two boxes on the off-season wish list. Now, make no mistake, he’s strictly a lefty specialist at this point in his career, but he’s really good in that role. Last year, he faced 82 left-handed batters, walking one and striking out 32. His FIP against LHBs was 0.81, the best in baseball among pitchers with 20+ IP against LHBs.
You don’t ever want him facing a right-hander in any kind of important situation, though. He faced 68 RHBs, walking 11 and striking out just six, running a 6.03 FIP against opposite handed batters. His heavy slider usage and arm slot make him a weapon against left-handed bats, but a batting practice machine against right-handed ones. If used correctly, he could be a real nice piece in the bullpen, but the M’s didn’t just acquire a guy who can take over in the closer role or anything.
My guess is that this move will push Charlie Furbush back to Triple-A to start 2012, as I’ve heard pretty good things about minor league invitee Sean Henn, and they probably won’t want to stunt Furbush’s development by using him as a second lefty in the ‘pen. For not that much more than the league minimum, adding a nice situational lefty is a pretty solid move. Sherrill won’t exactly change the team’s fortunes by himself, but there’s not much to dislike about this move.