Dave’s Latest At 710sports.com
Hey all,
Thanks again for all the support over the last few weeks. I’m feeling a lot better and am slowly building my work schedule back up, so I resumed my writing for the 710sports.com blog today, doing a piece on reliever inconsistency and why the M’s should have traded Brandon League.
This isn’t a knock on Brandon League specifically, but on relievers in general. Here are the top 10 relief pitchers in baseball by ERA in 2010, and then their corresponding 2011 ERAs:
1. Hong-Chih Kuo, 1.20; 12.46
2. Joaquin Benoit, 1.34; 4.50
3. Andrew Bailey, 1.47; 2.20 (but only 22 IP due to injury)
4. Chris Perez, 1.71; 3.11
5. Rafael Soriano, 1.73; 4.76 (and only 17 IP due to injury)
6. Mike Adams, 1.76; 1.29
7. Joakim Soria, 1.78; 4.14
8. Brian Wilson, 1.81; 2.88
9. Mariano Rivera, 1.80, 1.74
10. Heath Bell, 1.93; 2.23
I’ll be on with the guys tomorrow to discuss the post and talk about the team. When we have a time, I’ll post it here.
Game 110, Athletics at Mariners
12:40pm, Charlie Furbush vs. Gio Gonzalez
Yes, the last game thread was game 108, and this is game 110. The Mariners 2011 season no longer moves in a linear, martial fashion, and is now an avant garde performance art piece. Games are played almost immediately after one another in short, staccato bursts of activity, then, just as quickly, the empty drone of airliner engines. Nothing more until the evening of August 5th. The Mariners play with these negative spaces with a riotous jumble of their roster – who is this Charlie Furbush? Did Aaron Laffey ever really leave? Kyle Seager is simultaneously here and there.
Furbush makes his first start for the M’s and his third start overall this season. As we saw in his M’s debut, he’s beset by command issues that have led to a home run problem and a high walk rate. These same issues used to plague Gio Gonzalez, the A’s starter today. Gonzalez was a highly-rated pitcher in the White Sox system (he was a top 100 prospect after a stellar 2005), but his HRs spiked after he moved to AA (and the Phillies organization). He also struggled with free passes, which pushed his RA higher than his K rate would predict.
Gonzalez always had the reputation of a “real” prospect following his 2005 breakout season, and his velocity and breaking balls (curve/slider) were seen as MLB quality. Furbush….wasn’t. He had average velocity and got K’s with a deceptive motion and not actual stuff. But while Gonzalez clearly has better velocity (and well above average velo from the left side), the gap isn’t huge. Furbush averaged about 91mph in his starts for Detroit, and Gonzalez averages about 93. While Gonzalez’s velocity increased since his first call-up, the real difference has been a drop in his HR rate, at least in part driven by an increase in his ground-ball rate. That’s something Furbush should focus on in the off-season.
Justin Smoak’s off tonight after he hurt his thumb/hand fielding a grounder in last night’s game, but the M’s aren’t going with Adam Kennedy at first. Instead, they’re using Mike Carp. Here’s to Wedge for making hitting ability a priority.
1: Ichiro (DH)
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1B)
5: Wells (RF)
6: Gutierrez
7: Bard
8: Wilson (3B)
9: Halman (LF
Game 108, Athletics at Mariners
Felix Day! Wooo! It’s Felix Day!
Mariners Decide They Could Go for a Frosty Margarita, Recall Tom Wilhelmsen
The Mariners recalled RHP Tom Wilhelmsen from AA Jackson today, ostensibly to provide bullpen depth. Sources near the team suggest, however, that with the belated arrival of warm summer weather, the team wanted someone with experience creating fruity cocktails.
One reliever noted that Chris Ray had gotten “pretty annoying” by foisting dry-hopped XIPAs on his teammates, whose tastes tended towards lagers and mixed drinks. Eventually, the aspiring brewer went down with an injury and is now on the 15 day disabled list. Another pitcher confessed he was excited for the change. “Look, it’s finally warm out, I want to go out with my girlfriend and have something fun. I like Chris, but he was always rambling on about ‘simcoe’ and ‘amarillo’ and I was thinking he was talking about the Texas League or something, but no, he’s just explaining – again – why the beer I’m drinking is stupid.” A starting pitcher was describing one of Wilhelmsen’s strawberry margaritas in vivid, rapturous terms to a newly-acquired player when I asked them about Ray’s IPA. “I’m really glad he’s the Doogie Howser of making beer more bitter, but everyone here’s looking forward to this move. Everyone.” I pointed out that the Howser analogy is conceptual nonsense, but the pitcher just resumed his discussion of the airy, almost ethereal quality of Wilhemsen’s blended drinks.
A noticeably looser, more jovial Jack Zduriencik told reporters that “Wilhelmsen has earned this.” When questioned how (Wilhelmsen’s FIP and ERA are in the mid 5’s, and his tRA is over 6), Zduriencik changed tack: “You know what? WE’VE earned this. We’ve been working hard, we’ve got nothing to show for it, it’s gorgeous out, we’ve got new guys that we need to integrate into this organization, we’re going to be welcoming.” Asked if that meant that Wilhelmsen is being brought up to bartend, Zduriencik asked, “Every player brings a certain set of non-baseball talents. We don’t typically care about that, as we’re here to win ball games. But are you asking me if I’m specifically going to ignore what Tommy brings to the table? No, I’m not going to do that. It’s not my job to ignore things.” What about the plan to stretch Wilhelmsen out as a starter? “It’s not my job to ignore things.”
(The above is satire. Wilhelmsen was recalled, and I really do hope he makes his teammates some frosty margaritas, if that’s what they want. I also hope Chris Ray uses his down time to make another great brew with Fremont Brewing. Please drink responsibly.)
Minor League Roster Moves: Chiang, Martinez, Robinson Debut Tonight
As you know, the M’s welcomed several new minor leaguers to the fold this weekend, and the combination of the influx and promotions means there are a lot of new faces in the upper minors.
According to Mike Curto’s blog, the Rainiers will start Erasmo Ramirez tonight against Las Vegas. The Nicaraguan control artist started the year well, but HRs and hits have been piling up recently. AAA will be a challenge, but I have to admit he’s one of my favorite dark-horse prospects. Tonight will also mark Trayvon Robinson’s debut with the Rainiers, who made room by placing Matt Mangini on the temporarily inactive list. Francisco Martinez and Chih-Hsien Chiang are both in the line-up for the Jackson Generals tonight as they take on Mississippi (Chiang’s in LF tonight). James Gilheeney was called up from High Desert to make the start for Jackson, replacing Ramirez.
UPDATE, 11PM:
Sorry for the lack of a gamethread. I went to Cheney, and JY had his star-making radio hit in PDX. Trayvon Robinson had a solid debut for Tacoma, going 1-3 with a walk and a stolen base. He was 1-2 w/BB from the left side and 0-1 from the right side. He struck out in his first PA (from the left side) on a 3-2 pitch. He didn’t have much to do in the field, though he made a solid jump on a ball in the 9th to make a good play look pretty routine. He also battled a tough sun field to make a catch on a line drive in the 2nd.
Here’s Robinson:
Erasmo Ramirez made his AAA debut and went six innings of 1 run ball, though he was in trouble the whole night. The lead-off man reached in every inning but his last, and he had two men on in every inning. His great command wasn’t in evidence tonight, as he allowed 3 walks and also hit a batter. He also allowed a number of line drives, but to his credit, pitched around the baserunners by getting two double plays. Stuff wise, he was better than advertised, sitting in the low-90s but touching the mid-90s. That’s better-than-Beavan velocity, though Beavan’s slider is better than any breaking ball Ramirez showed tonight. He had a nice change-up, though. His defense didn’t help him much, as Luis Rodriguez made an error on the very first batter Ramirez faced, which was followed by an infield single. He then allowed a “single” in the 2nd when Carlos Peguero lost a ball in the sun (there’s karma for you), and that run came around to score after a passed ball by the catcher and an infield grounder. Overall, he just didn’t seem like the guy I’d imagined – he wasn’t a high-80s junkballer with good control, he was somewhat wild and he threw pretty hard. Not a lot of swings and misses, but his change-up got a few, and he was actually able to throw his FB by some of the weaker Las Vegas hitters. Here’s Ramirez:
Jay on the Radio, Talking Bedard Deal
It looks like I’m going to be on Portland-area station ESPN 1080 The FAN-KFXX this afternoon around 4:10 pm or so as a guest on Primetime with Isaac Ropp and Jason Scukanec. I’ll be talking about the pieces picked up in the Bedard deal, the general state of the system, and patience and how much of it we should be exercising. Guess what my opinion on that last one is going to be?
Minor League Wrap (7/25-31/11)
The trade deadline has passed with the M’s making an effort to bolster their farm system again. Next up on the schedule, we have the August 15th signing deadline for this year’s draft picks. Jack was on the radio today saying he expected to have Hultzen signed within the next couple of weeks, so here’s hoping they get him and the other top ten guys who are just hanging out right now. After that, we’ll find out who will be our PTBNL from the Fister trade on the 20th. Along the way, some additional international signings may trickle in as well. These are exciting, though exhausting times.
To the jump!
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Bedard, Fields Go in Three-Way Deal, M’s Get OFs Chiang and Robinson
Deals! Just before the deadline, the Mariners pulled off an exchange with the Red Sox and Dodgers that sent LHP Erik Bedard and RHP Josh Fields to the Red Sox and brought in OF Chih-Hsien Chiang from the Sox and OF Trayvon Robinson from the Dodgers. I’ll pass over what the Dodgers are getting, as it doesn’t really interest us, and I’ll leave the commentary on Bedard and Fields limited. I’m sorry to see Bedard go because he was a good pitcher for us this year, loyal, and a rather entertaining figure so long as you weren’t trying to interview him. Fields, I think of subtraction equaling addition at this point. Our first-round pick in 2008, his command has been horrible as a pro and nothing about that has changed this season, to say nothing of the various oblique and other injuries he’s suffered over his career which have meant that he just cracked 100.0 career innings in the past week. Frustrating players are identified as such because they have more potential than they seem to be able to show on a consistent basis, and I don’t really have much reason to think that Fields will shed that label any time soon. So let’s talk about the players we brought in!
Robinson has been a top ten prospect for a couple of years for the Dodgers, though their system has been in poor shape for a little while. He’s one of the rare guys who picked up switch-hitting as a pro and actually managed to stick with it and become proficient. In the PCL this season, he’s hit .293/.375/.563 for the Albuquerque Isotopes with twenty-six home runs (and somehow only nine doubles). There are some issues surrounding this, such as Albuquerque boasting a 153 HR factor for right-handers and a 127 factor for left-handers, but while he’s slugged .585 at home, he’s a good .537 on the road, and about twenty-five points of that are tied up in average alone. Factor in the weirdness of the Pacific Coast League this year as you will, since it’s turned into quite the hitting league this year. What I really like about him, however, is that he pulled a Wlad Balentien by abruptly going from thirty walks a season to sixty to seventy. He still strikes out a lot, but the fact that he’s suddenly capable of drawing a walk makes me hopeful that the power he’s showing is usable. On the field, he’s got good wheels (has been around 40 steals the previous two years, though he only has eight this season) and could easily take over in center field if the need arises. His arm isn’t great, but all things considered, that’s probably his worst tool and center fielders have survived with weak arms. John Sickels also likes him a bit. I’m terrible with player comps, but I could see his best-case scenario being something like a lesser, switch-hitting Mike Cameron. Robinson probably wouldn’t be regarded as an elite prospect, but he’s still very talented and could compete for a spot opening next season.
Chiang is not so hot a prospect, but still interesting on his own merits. He’s a former infielder who was prone to a few too many mental errors and got shifted to the outfield in the 2009 season. The arm has been sufficient enough to get him playing time in right field. The Red Sox had him repeat double-A this year after he hit .260/.312/.420 for Portland last season, and he’s responded by posting a .338/.399/.647 line with a .431 wOBA, with better power numbers in less than three-quarters of the at-bats. He doesn’t walk much, and would probably top out about forty, but he doesn’t strike out much either and wouldn’t be one of the guys we see as risking 100+ Ks a season, probably more like eighty. Chiang is much better against right-handers, with an OPS differential of about .225, though that’s nothing unusual. Since he’s repeating a level and doesn’t get rave reviews for his on-field work, he’s sort of a lower-end, B-level prospect, a few steps below where Robinson is at. Considering we have Peguero and Chavez and others hanging about in the high minors, Chiang may be more interesting for the competition he provides than for anything extraordinary in his toolbox.
All-in-all, I’d say this is a win for the M’s, far better than what was initially coming down the wire, which was some backup catcher coming our way. I wouldn’t say either of these guys is a guy that I’m going to pencil in as the anything of the future, though Robinson has good odds on seeing some time down the road. For what may end up as a rental for the Red Sox (and whatever it is that Fields is), this is a pretty darned good return.
Mariners Send Erik Bedard to Boston in 3-Team Trade
The M’s have apparently sent Erik Bedard to Boston for AA outfielder Chih-Hsien Chiang in a deal that sends Boston AA C Tim Federowicz and other prospects to the Dodgers. The M’s also added OF Trayvon Robinson from LA.
Both OFs have some power: Taiwanese OF Chiang has 18 HRs and a slugging percentage near .650 in the Eastern League this year, and Robinson‘s already hit 26 HRs in the PCL for Albuquerque. The M’s wanted offense, and that’s what they’ve acquired. Both come with some question marks, however. Chiang’s never really impressed scouts, and he’s not a terribly patient hitter, but a lefty-hitting OF with power is a good thing to take a chance on. He played in the Futures Game this year for the World team and did well. Robinson’s benefitted from his high-altitude environment at Albuquerque, as he hit all of 9 HRs last year in AA. He’s also striking out in about 30% of his plate appearances, but he can take a pitch and he’s got decent speed.
For now, Chiang will head to AA Jackson and Robinson will stay in the PCL with Tacoma, who head to Albuquerque this week. The initial reports that had the M’s getting back-up C Tim Federowicz were underwhelming, but getting these two OFs make the deal a very good one. Neither’s a sure thing, but it’s not like Erik Bedard was acquired for his durability. Well done, Jack.
UPDATE: The M’s also sent RHP Josh Fields to Boston in this deal. I’m sure that’s going to radically change everyone’s view of it.
Game 107, Rays at Mariners
Vargas vs. Hellickson, 1:10pm
Today’s game starts 10 minutes after the trade deadline, so get ready for kremlinological analysis of the M’s warm-ups, batting practice, and the walk to the bullpen (“League generally stays to the right of the guy with the pink backpack, but today he’s on his left. He knows.”).
Jeremy Hellickson’s had very good results, but his K:BB ratio and FIP aren’t all that impressive. Because he’s on the Rays, he’s had only a few months in the spotlight as the next big thing. Alex Cobb’s been solid for the MLB team, and now Matt Moore (the most impressive arm in the Futures Game this year) is laying waste to AAA and is the consensus top pitching prospect in the minors.
Mike Carp stays in the clean-up spot today, and Casper Wells makes his M’s debut…batting in front of Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez.
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Kennedy
7: Wells
8: Figgins
9: Gutierrez
One more trade came made official (or as official as these things can be at this stage) – the A’s sent reliever Brad Ziegler to Arizona for 1B Brandon Allen and LHP Jordan Norberto. Good move for both teams; Brandon Allen’s good, and they could platoon him w/Chris Carter, or just move Carter to LF once and for all.