Links for an Evening Without Baseball
The M’s got swept this afternoon, and the PCL’s off tonight (thanks for letting us borrow Mike Curto, Tacoma!), so here’s what I’ve been reading while I drift in and out of consciousness due to sleep deprivation:
1: Taijuan Walker had one of his poorer outings on Monday, giving up 5R and 5BBs to Beloit. He’s still striking out over 30% of hitters facing him, and he’s still putting up an absurd GB rate. But the pure ground/air out ratio obscures something: Walker will end the month of June with just two outfield putouts behind him. He could end the year with his first baseman making more putouts on fly balls/popups/whatever than his LF/CF/RF put together. There are two things to take from this, both of them good: first, he’s had bad BABIP luck in the OF, and this could regress when he moves up the ladder. Second, he’s getting a high percentage of infield fly balls, a stat which stabilizes relatively quickly for pitchers. Speaking of which….
2: Many of you probably came across this seminal article by Russell Carleton aka ‘Pizza Cutter’ a few years ago measuring when various statistics “stabilized,” defined as an R^2 of .50. That is, how much *information* – as opposed to small-sample noise – do you see in a pitcher/hitter’s GB rate over a given number of plate appearances. Derek Carty’s just updated it with a small but important tweak to the methodology: instead of having a common denominator for each statistic (plate appearances), the denominator shifts based on the metric in question: balls-in-play for balls-in-play stats and plate appearances (or something close to it) for things like K rate. Just using PAs works fine for the majority of players, but consider how many balls in play Ichiro and Jack Cust would put up in any given number of plate appearances; if we’re trying to figure out each player’s ground ball rate, for example, it’s probably significant that Ichiro will have vastly more balls in play than Cust. This is really, really useful stuff even for the 99% of us that won’t use these figures, apply the proper amount of regression, and create new player projections. It’s handy simply as way to rank the various factors that pitchers or hitters control/influence – strikeout rate stabilizes first, walk rate stabilizes a bit slower, and things like HR rate and BABIP don’t stabilize for years.
3: I feel like I should link to this whenever a pitcher has a slight drop in velocity, or every week, whichever is soonest. Amazing.
4: SS prospect Nick Franklin saw his hostile takeover of AA cut short by a freak batting practice injury this week. Larry Stone spoke with M’s head of Player Development Pedro Grifol about it here. Sounds like a concussion; here’s hoping Franklin’s able to heal and resume play quickly.
5: A’s manager Bob Melvin’s seen his injury-ravaged line-up score 9 runs in 7 games, all while bat-first prospect Chris Carter (brought to Oakland on 6/23) perfects his seed-spitting skills on the bench. Carter has one at-bat over the past week, as the vets in front of him continue to struggle. Susan Slusser touches on this apparent incongruity in this post, which leads off with the news that RHP Tyson Ross will make a rehab start this week. Ross injured his oblique on May 19th, which underlines how long these injuries take to heal. Tough break for Chris Gimenez, and a decent opportunity for Josh Bard.
6: Former Rainier Dan Reichert never really lived up to the expectations many had of him, but he’s now given the world this, and that’s OK in my book. All is forgiven for ditching the 2005 R’s after 4 awful innings, Dan. Good look in any future Garrison Opportunities.
7: Bill Petti wrote an interesting article on the drop in runs scored this year, and may have identified an explanation: pitchers entering MLB this year have been really, really good. As a fan of Michael Pineda, I can only say that this hypothesis makes a great deal of sense to me. To be fair, there’s a sizeable drop in FIP for veteran pitchers, so this isn’t the *only* explanation, but for M’s fans who’ve seen Pineda replace Ryan Rowland-Smith/Chris Seddon/David Pauley, it’s quite a plausible one.
Game 81, Braves At Mariners
Hernandez vs Lowe.
Happy Felix Day!
First things first – a huge congratulations to friend of the blog Mike Curto, who gets the call-up from Tacoma and will be calling a few innings on the radio with Rick Rizzs. Curto does yeoman’s work for the Rainiers, and while he might not have the dulcet tones of Vin Scully, few announcers work harder or are more prepared to give their listeners interesting insights about the game itself. I’m thrilled personally for Mike, and look forward to listening to him this afternoon.
In other news, Josh Bard has been called up from Tacoma to replace the injured Chris Gimenez, who was placed on the 15-day DL. Edward Paredes was DFA’d to make room for Bard on the 40 man roster. It was always a mystery why Paredes was on the 40 man to begin with, and if he gets claimed on waivers, it will just mean that we don’t have to talk about him anymore. Win win!
Line-up today includes Cust again, so that’s a win, and he even gets to move up from 8th after showing he’s not dead last night. That said, the Ryan/Kennedy experiment as the #2/#3 hitters is killing the team right now, and so this line-up is still problematic.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Cust, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Peguero, LF
Bard, C
The Massive Blunder
This is being written under the assumption that the double steal in the 7th inning was called for from the bench. That assumption could be wrong – if so, just replace “Eric Wedge” with whoever decided to try this. Of course, you can also make a very valid argument that it’s the managers responsibility to make sure that the people under him aren’t stupid enough to do something like this without his consent either…
Tonight, Eric Wedge made one of the worst tactical decisions I’ve seen from a manager in a long, long time. Down by two runs in the 7th inning, the Mariners had managed to get the tying runs on base, and Justin Smoak had worked a 3-0 count from George Sherrill. This was an amazingly great situation for the M’s. Sherrill is a left-handed specialist who is mediocre against right-handers, and he was now pitching in the best possible hitter’s count to a right-handed batter who could sit on a fastball and try to launch it over the fence for the lead.
Instead of getting to see what the team’s clean-up hitter could do in the best possible hitting situation you could imagine, the M’s attempted a double steal. Smoak took a called strike, and Brian McCann threw out Adam Kennedy at second base for the second out of the inning. All of the sudden, Smoak was the tying run instead of the go-ahead run, and any out would end the rally and let the Braves turn the game over to the vaunted Venters/Kimbrel duo in the 8th and 9th inning.
So, yes, the result sucked, but what’s maddening about this play isn’t even that it didn’t work. It’s that had it worked, it still wouldn’t have helped the team. Even if Kennedy is called safe and the team moves the tying run into scoring position, it’s an automatic intentional walk for Smoak to load the bases. There’s no way Fredi Gonzalez would continue pitching to Smoak with first base open when he could simply put him on, get the platoon advantage against Dustin Ackley, set up the double play and a force at home. It’s the easiest IBB call ever.
And so, the best possible outcome if the double-steal is successful is bases loaded, 1 out, and Ackley at the plate against Sherrill. But guess what? Had the M’s not sent the runners, they almost certainly would have had that outcome anyway.
Justin Smoak has had 21 plate appearances this year where he’s worked a 3-0 count (before tonight). He’s gone on to draw a walk 15 times, giving him a .714 OBP after getting to that spot. The AL average this year is .746. When a pitcher falls behind a hitter 3-0, they usually just end up walking them.
The outcome the M’s were willing to risk the tying run for was the most likely outcome if they did nothing. To do anything other than have the runners stand and watch Justin Smoak either get a fastball to try and thump or take his base is just craziness. Absolute insanity.
That double steal call was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen on a baseball field, rivaling Eric Byrnes famous pull-back-the-squeeze last year. Whoever called for it needs to take Baseball Run Expectancy 101. That Smoak did walk and then Dustin Ackley immediately singled up the middle for a hit that would have tied the game just makes the mistake all the more obvious, but it was a mistake from the minute it was conceived.
Whether that was Wedge, one of his coaches, or the runners themselves, the person who made the decision to try and steal there owes the team an apology. They may have very well cost the Mariners a win.
Game 80, Braves At Mariners
Pineda vs Hanson, 7:10 pm.
Since comments are off for now, this is more of a game preview than a game thread, I guess. But, look, I just don’t have the time or the desire to spend time cleaning up things like people wishing Chone Figgins would kill himself – yes, that’s an actual comment from yesterday. Derek, Jason, and I started this blog as an outlet for ourselves to share our thoughts on the franchise, and I just don’t have a desire to let it become an outlet for the immature and ignorant. If I can figure out a way to have comments on the site that reflect that at least a little bit of thought went into it, we’ll bring them back. But, if they do come back, know that you guys need to do better. The status quo recently just isn’t acceptable.
Jack Cust makes his return to the line-up tonight, but due to his struggles, he’s hitting 8th. Wedge might as well be drawing names out of a hat at this point.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Olivo, C
Carp, LF
Cust, DH
Halman, CF
Turning Comments Off For A Bit
They might come back. We’ll see. For now, we’ll just go without comments for a bit.
Franklin Gutierrez Needs To Be Less Aggressive
The M’s offense has problems – that’s no secret. Most of the focus has been on Chone Figgins and the black holes at LF/DH, but right alongside those issues is the fact that Franklin Gutierrez has hit like a pitcher since returning from the disabled list. He was never an offensive force, but as he showed the last few years, he could at least hold his own at the plate and earn his money in the field. As good as Guti is defensively, however, it’s hard to be a real contributor when you’re hitting .197/.230/.248, which is Guti’s line over his first 123 plate appearances in 2011.
One of his problems is obvious and likely related to the stomach issues that sidelined him for most of the spring – he’s lost a lot of his prior strength. He shed weight while he was unable to keep food down, and it’s being reflected in how hard he’s hitting the ball. He only has four extra base hits in the 34 games he’s played this season, and just watching him make contact, you can see that there just isn’t a lot of juice behind his swing. Even when he squares a ball up, it doesn’t jump off the bat. Guti just doesn’t have his prior strength, and until they figure out how to get weight back on his frame, that might not be a fixable problem.
However, that isn’t the only reason Gutierrez is struggling. In addition to a lack of strength, he’s also adopted a different – and markedly worse – approach at the plate so far this year. Gutierrez has always been a patient hitter who worked counts and forced pitchers to throw him strikes before he’d swing the bat, but this year, he’s taken a significantly more aggressive approach to hitting.
For the season, Gutierrez has swung at 48.9% of the pitches he’s been thrown, well above his career averages and putting him closer to the likes of guys like Jose Lopez and Ronny Cedeno. He’s chasing pitches he just didn’t swing at previously, both in and out of the strike zone. Perhaps buoyed by the fact that he’s making contact with these pitches, Gutierrez just keeps swinging at pitches he used to let go by. The result? Lower rates of both walks and strikeouts and weak contact that just makes him a useless hitter.
So far in 2011, Gutierrez has essentially become Jack Wilson at the plate. He’s been an aggressive hacker with little power, and that’s just not at all what he was previously in his career. Maybe it’s just a small sample. Maybe his timing is off after missing all of spring training. Or maybe it’s counter-productive to have a manager who believes that you can fix every problem on earth by being “more aggressive”. We don’t know enough to pinpoint the exact cause of why Gutierrez’s approach is so different this year, but we know this – it’s made him a much worse player and needs to change sooner than later.
Just like Aggressive Chone Figgins is a terrible hitter, so too is Aggressive Franklin Gutierrez. They both derive value from not swinging the bat, and the sooner they get back to that approach, the better.
Game 79, Braves At Mariners
Bedard vs Beachy, 7:10 pm.
The M’s face one of my favorite pitchers in baseball tonight, but the Braves offense has been scuffling nearly as much as the M’s offense has, so either team could take a 2-1 victory in this match-up.
Unfortunately, even though the M’s get the DH back tonight, they’re not really using it, as Adam Kennedy has shifted to DH with Chone Figgins back in the line-up at third base tonight. For all intents and purposes, this means that the M’s are choosing Figgins to DH instead of Jack Cust, which is just… just release Cust at this point. Eric Wedge obviously has zero interest in using him, and there’s no point keeping a DH in reserve. He can’t pinch run, can’t act as a defensive replacement, and Wedge doesn’t like using him as a pinch-hitter due to his propensity to strikeout. If they’re not going to use him, at least use the roster spot. Bring back Mike Wilson so you’ll have a right-handed DH option against southpaws – that’s a better option that just having Cust sit around and watch baseball games.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, DH
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Olivo, C
Carp, LF
Gutierrez, CF
Figgins, 3B
Minor League Wrap (6/20-26/11)
We have reached the point in the season where I am now doing dailies for nine teams and covering six and a half affiliates here. Suffice to say, things will be a little crazy from here out.
Some important notes to start things out: Seager and Franklin were both promoted after their minor league all-star breaks, Paxton and Liddi were both named to the Futures Game, we signed twice-drafted RHP David Holman of the pitching Holmen and Steve Kelley did a feature, and the 60-day DL at present includes RHPs Danny Ayala Cruz, Yao Wen Chang, and Richard Vargas along with 3B Jose Flores. The only one of those that’s really upsetting is the loss of Vargas. I honestly thought they had released Chang already.
To the jump!
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Game 78, Mariners Sort Of At Marlins For The Last Time
Fister vs Sanchez, 7:10 pm.
Justin Smoak returns to the line-up, so huzzah for that. Unfortunately, Anibal Sanchez is really good. So, yeah.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Gutierrez, CF
Fister, P
Game 77, Mariners Sort Of At Marlins Again
Vargas vs Volstad, 7:10 pm.
I wonder how often two pitchers with a last name starting with the letter v have faced off? I’d bet Jayson Stark tells us later this week.
Jason Vargas can actually hit, by the way. Don’t be surprised if he gets some good hacks in tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Ackley, 2B
Peguero, LF
Gutierrez, CF
Vargas, P