So It’s Come To This, Again
Used to be that words came a lot easier. I remember one time sitting down to write something about baseball, and it was going to be something long, and in about three hours, I pounded out the equivalent of 25 pages double-spaced. Felt like a lot, felt like a lot in a hurry, and I was pleased with the result. It’s still somewhere online and no one ever said it was stupid. Things now don’t work like they used to. On my bad days, I take it as a sign of decline, of declining passion and declining capability. On my good days, I take it as a sign of evolution, since now there’s a lot more thought taking place before there’s a single word on an Internet page. I know that I’m a different writer now than I was years ago. I think most people are. I’m referring specifically to baseball analysts, but it probably applies more generally, too.
Willie Bloomquist was a Mariner when I was younger and more energetic. More invested, more quick and ready to express myself. Now he’s a Mariner again, for probably a couple of seasons, and I’ve changed. Somewhat remarkably, he hasn’t, despite his advancing age, but that’s a point in his favor. For me and for all of us, this is another chance with Willie, a chance after a years-long break. It’s not a chance I’m looking forward to, but I’m interested by the response.
This news was destined to be an Internet catastrophe. The Mariners didn’t just sign a utility player for $5.8 million — they signed Willie Ballgame for $5.8 million, and Willie’s been a mascot and punching bag for a decade. The old Baseball Prospectus used to rip on him without mercy, and that was greatly influential. Even to this very day, I think a lot of us responded in the same way: when news broke, people laughed and shook their heads and said “of course”. If everything were the same and his name were Pete Snorkel, it’d just be a weird signing for a bit too much money. But that’s not his name; his actual name makes it funnier. It’s easy to chuckle and point to this as the latest evidence of the Mariners being a laughingstock.
I wanted to just laugh at them, too. Still do. Still want to do nothing but just shred them on Twitter, like people do when a team signs Yuniesky Betancourt or Delmon Young. As for a blog post, 1000 words making fun of the Mariners for being stupid? Simple. Been there before. I think I have templates. It’s embarrassing, right? It’s something to laugh about, right, something that proves the front office is clueless?
I know exactly how I would’ve responded to this if I were still the same writer as before. These days, I can’t help but try to look for reason. It takes time and maybe it isn’t always necessary, but I’ve become increasingly uncomfortable assuming I know what I’m doing more than executives do. Even some of the worse executives. I am convinced the Mariners didn’t need to do this, I am convinced they’ve guaranteed too big of a commitment, but there’s some sense. I see this now as a move that’s not great or good, but I understand the thinking.
I’m responsible for covering the AL West in the FanGraphs team depth charts, and when I’ve worked on the Mariners, I’ve struggled with playing time for infield backups. Before today, the team simply didn’t have a utility infielder beyond Carlos Triunfel, and the starters up the middle are Brad Miller and Nick Franklin, unproven youths, the both of them. Every team needs to have depth, and every team needs to have some infield insurance. The Mariners didn’t have that in the organization, so they needed to get some.
Willie fills that hole. He’s worse than Nick Punto, but Punto’s from California and he signed with the A’s, and the A’s are good and the Mariners aren’t. Here are contracts that have gone to similar players of late:
- Willie Bloomquist: 2 years, $5.8 million
- Nick Punto: 1 year, $3 million, or 2 years, $5.5 million with vesting option
- Brendan Ryan: 2 years, $5 million
- Skip Schumaker: 2 years, $5 million
Technically, Punto was given just one guaranteed year, but his 2015 option vests if he doesn’t spend too much time next year on the disabled list, and he hasn’t been on the DL since 2011. Increasingly, utility sorts are getting multiple years, and Willie is just coming off of a two-year contract. He’ll be paid the most money of the guys above, but he also signed with the worst team, a team with more money to spend than it might be capable of spending.
Again, I don’t think there was any need for urgency. Bloomquist wasn’t the only available option. Jayson Nix just got non-tendered. There are guys like Ramon Santiago and Elliot Johnson. The Mariners might’ve been able to get a better value by holding out, or maybe at least they could’ve limited things to a one-year commitment. The way things look, it’s as if the Mariners were in a rush to sign Willie Bloomquist, which sounds hilarious to people who are not us. It fits with the current caricature of the people in charge, and everybody likes blending baseball with humor.
But you do have a pretty good idea what you get from Willie Bloomquist. He can post two-thirds of a half-decent slash line, he can play a lot of positions, even if not particularly well, and he knows and understands his role. He’s not the younger version of himself who wanted so desperately to be a starter. He might still want that, but by now he’s come to terms with the reality. Willie’s been around, on good teams and bad teams, and he brings a lot of experience to a team that’s presently incredibly young, and I’m trying so desperately to not say too much about his familiarity with the area. It doesn’t hurt that people will like having him back. More significantly, he’s being paid to be worth a win over two years, and futzing over the details and likelihoods overlooks the fact that that’s hardly any money. Willie’s contract isn’t going to prevent the Mariners from doing anything else. They were probably going to target some kind of veteran infield backup. Now that’s done and the actual important moves will follow in some order.
That’s where I’m actually worried. I already don’t trust this front office, and Bloomquist has nothing to do with that. As much fun as it is to say he’s an indicator of everything that’s wrong with the team, he’s getting paid less than $3 million a year at a time when money like $3 million means less than ever. It’s not the little mistakes, where the Mariners might pay a bit too much for veteran experience and leadership. What I don’t like are the links to guys like Nelson Cruz. What I don’t like are the links to proven free-agent closers. Teams get sunk by the big mistakes, not the bench players, and while you might’ve wanted a better bench player than Willie Bloomquist, there aren’t very many of those who are available and who aren’t starters. Bloomquist isn’t good, but players in his role usually aren’t. He doesn’t out-and-out suck, so, all right.
This is all to say, I’m trying really hard to be open-minded. I’m trying really hard to give some of the benefit of the doubt to people I already don’t trust very much. I’m trying really hard to not just automatically laugh at Willie Bloomquist, because while the early days of baseball analysis were a lot of fun, people also sounded like self-important dicks. There’s always nuance, there’s always some reason a bad thing isn’t as bad as it initially seems. Willie fills a role for a bit too much money. A year ago, the brilliant Cardinals stupidly guaranteed two years and too much money to Ty Wigginton. I’m not saying the Mariners are run like the Cardinals are, but the things that matter aren’t found on the bench. This isn’t worth a freakout.
Save the freakouts for the real bad stuff. Real bad stuff like the Tigers’ trade of Doug Fister to the Nationals. Save the freakouts and hope you never have to dip into them. An organization that actually sucks will provide ample opportunity for you to lose your shit. There’s no need to force it, and it’s probably bad for you.
Game 156, Mariners at Angels
King Felix vs. CJ Wilson, 12:35pm
Happy Felix day. This is as conflicted as I’ve been on a Felix day in quite some time. The M’s obviously toyed with the idea of shutting Felix down following his back tightness, but he’s apparently been given the go-ahead to make this start. That’s…good, of course – he had a bit of a scare, but he’s fine now, and can resume his royal duties. But with the stakes so low, and with his royal highness so important, a part of me wishes they’d just shut him down for the rest of the season (ie. a week) and tell him to work on 2014. Then there’s the fact that this game’s going up against the Seahawks game, and we may be looking at the least-watched Felix Day in years, possibly ever. There’s plenty to look for, of course – from how he looks after a few innings to how his stuff/velo appear after a decent layoff. I just can’t imagine too many people will actually do so.
CJ Wilson’s quietly had a solid season, coming back from a rough April and the backlash borne of those ubiquitous shampoo ads. He’s still perhaps not quite the player the Angels thought they were acquiring, and his contract starts to hurt in a few years, but he’s been a 3 WAR pitcher thus far. He’s also 3-0 against Seattle this year, with 4 runs allowed in 20 1/3 IP. As a lefty, Wilson obviously targets the M’s big weakness, and Wilson’s successful largely because he’s extremely tough on left-handed hitters. But the M’s are able to trot out seven righty hitters to face him – and Wilson’s career FIP is over 4 against righties.
Of course, as we’ve lamented for quite a while now, Morales and Franklin can *hit* righty, but it’s clearly not their strength. Justin Smoak can hit righty, but his splits are even worse (all 17 of his HRs this year have been hit lefty this year). Carlos Triunfel is a righty, but there’s scant evidence of any kind of offensive strengths with him. Mike Zunino may be a lefty-killer in the future, but he’s struggling mightily against big-league pitching so far.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Zunino, C
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Saunders, LF
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: King Felix
After a few weeks of counting down the days until the end of the season, I now realize I’m going to miss it. Not this particular campaign, but the daily routine of following the team. And honestly, I think I’m just wistful about what this season could have been – not a playoff season, but not this weird limbo where signs of progress are so mixed up with regression and disappointment.
Go Felix! And go Seahawks!
M’s too, I suppose.
Game 154, Mariners at Angels
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Matt Shoemaker, 7:10pm
The M’s face undrafted free-agent/MLB debutante Matt Shoemaker tonight. What could possibly go wrong?
I’m going to level with you, reader: I don’t have much to say about Matt Shoemaker. These game preview things are heavily pitch-fx-driven, for better or for worse, and that’s simply unavailable here. Shoemaker’s obviously never been in MLB, he never appeared in the AFL, he skillfully managed his Cactus League appearances to avoid Peoria and Surprise, so I’ve got nothing to go on. Matt Shoemaker is a bearded tabula rasa – a tabula barbati, I suppose. Thus, it’s up to us to piece together a profile of a pitcher we’ve not seen* based on known details about his life in the manner of an over-the-top police procedural.
Name: Matt Shoemaker
Shoemaker will be the second person with that industrious surname to play in MLB, the first since Charlie Shoemaker, a utility IF for the Royals in the early 60s. Charlie had a poor OBP and essentially no power, so, transitive property blah blah blah, we can surmise that Matt Shoemaker isn’t a power pitcher, and he’s stingy with walks.
From: Wyandotte, Michigan
Wyandotte is a suburb of Detroit, and it’s given its name to a popular breed of chicken. Chicken is a common source of protein, generally seen as having little discernible flavor on its own, and is cheaper than beef. From this, I’m assuming Shoemaker’s arsenal is fairly standard (no knuckleball, no screwball, no 91mph change-up, no Matt Moore-like armside run) and that he’s making the league-minimum. Are you getting chills? Seriously, I have goosebumps right now.
Attended: Eastern Michigan University
He’ll be the 10th player from EMU to play in the majors, not including Mets manager Terry Collins. The most famous of these is Cy Young winner Bob Welch of the Dodgers and A’s, but the group also includes Brian Clutterbuck, Brian Bixler, Glenn Gulliver, and Bob Owchinko. From this, we can logically conclude that Shoemaker’s chances of getting to an All-Star game are roughly 1-10. 10%. There’s a non-zero chance.
Facial hair: famously bearded
His AA team in the Texas League once had Matt Shoemaker goatee face t-shirt (?) give-aways, and apparently a removable Matt Shoemaker beard once (even though he didn’t play for the team anymore. You see, M’s? It’s actually better that your beard giveaways are associated with a former player than having a promotion that’s essentially, “We had some, uh, beards, you know, just lying around, and you’re welcome to one if you’d like. No, no reason. Just…we’re trying to clear out some beards, and lots of people like…beards, so yeah.”). WHY a beard? Where did this come from? Let’s go back to his alma mater – is there something we can learn from the ex-EMU players?
Let’s start with Owchinko. Here he is as a rookie with San Diego. Computer, let’s magnify that:
Aha. Beardless. Quite possibly mocked by his teammates, heckled by fans.
What does he do? He gets depressed. And then what? Then he gets facial hair. Whoa, whoa, there Grizzly Adams, let’s back off, hoss. Clean it up a bit and….
Exactly. Exactly.
Other examples? What about that Clutterbuck guy?
You be the judge. Better bearded, or with one of those awful 80s mustaches? Not even a contest.
Conclusion? Shoemaker is capable of learning, of adapting. He synthesizes information, he has some form of empathy, and can make intuitive leaps based on what’s happened to a member of his tribe. From this, we can deduce that the M’s should try and get to Shoemaker in the first few innings, before he’s able to adapt and target their weaknesses.**
I reached out to people who’d seen a lot of him, and the report was vague – may have peaked in 2011, good control, but stuff isn’t eye-popping. In other words, our investigation was *right on the money*. Absolutely nothing in the scouting report contradicts anything we learned through pure deductive logic. Thanks for joining me today – I don’t think any of us will forget this day. Together, we’re capable of so much more than I thought possible.
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Saunders, CF
3: Gutierrez, RF
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Franklin, SS
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 3B
SP: Erasmooooooo
Bizarro-land line-up today, with Nick Franklin at SS, and Triunfel at 3B to give Kyle Seager a much-needed rest.
Erasmo’s change still gets plenty of swinging strikes (not as many as last year, but still), and it still results in some weak contact and thus a low BABIP-against. But when batters see a bad one, or maybe when they guess right, they hit that pitch *hard*. It’s not sinking as much as it did last year, though that could possibly be noise. On the other hand, his slightly lower velo means his fastballs have slightly less vertical movement, and coupled with his change having slightly MORE vertical movement (that is, less ‘drop’), the gap between them isn’t as large. Does that have anything to do with his 4 HRs given up on the pitch? No idea. I’m pointing out a correlation, and I’m shrugging my shoulders. Maybe?
* The problem is that I’ve actually seen Shoemaker. I went to the 7-inning game he apparently started against Tacoma, and I remember literally nothing. Right- or left-handed? Velo? Nothing. The whole tastes-like-chicken thing isn’t so far-fetched anymore, is it? He’s apparently faced Nick Franklin 8 times, though I believe he may have missed Mike Zunino.
** Another potential weakness came up in reviewing EMU players. There’s a non-zero probability that Shoemaker could suffer some form of hat failure, or the sudden inability to properly wear a hat. 20% of the EMU sample showed signs of hat failure.
Images via the Google, and this place for Welch, here for Hoiles, here for Owchinko and here for Clutterbuck.
Game 153, Mariners at Tigers
James Paxton vs. Doug Fister, 10:08am
Early game today as the M’s look for an improbable split. James Paxton’s emergence late in the year has been a much-needed bright spot for those of us that have watched Nick Franklin grind down after a fast start, then watch as Tai Walker tantalized for a few innings before being shut down, and as Felix takes a much-needed break. I’m not saying that I’m only interested in games Paxton starts; Iwakuma’s obviously pretty fun to watch when he’s on. But Paxton gives meaning to an M’s game in a forgotten season in a way that even Iwakuma (to say nothing of Saunders) does.
Paxton’s still something of tabula rasa. Over the past 12 months or so, we’ve seen glimpses of him through pitch fx and on tv/in person, and each time, he looks slightly different. The sum total of these observations still doesn’t add up to much, and much of what we’d seen is contradictory (Paxton struggles to hit 91! Paxton touches 98!). He’s gone from being an extreme fly-ball guy to running an absurd GB/FB ratio in his two MLB starts. He’s picked up a new pitch, and all but refused to throw it in MLB so far. His movement has fluctuated a bit, and at this point, I have no idea where it’ll settle into next year. I’m just glad there’s a pitcher on this team that I’m actively interested to learn more about.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Paxton
The other news out of Japan this morning is that the commissioner of NPB has resigned under pressure due to the controversy around the “juiced” ball, and the way it was stealthily introduced this year.
Game 152, Mariners at Tigers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Justin Verlander, 4:08pm
Sure, the M’s lost the first two games of the series, but they were closer than you/I would’ve thought given the two were started by Joe Saunders and Brandon Maurer. Now, the M’s turn to ‘Kuma, one of the unsung heroes of the club and one of the more valuable pitchers in the AL by fielding-dependent metrics, or even by xFIP. Great, right? Oh yeah – now the M’s get to face Justin Verlander.
I know, I know: this is not vintage Verlander. With his velocity dipping and his slider sliding a bit less, Verlander’s looking at 3.5-4 fWAR this year, down from the 6.8-7 of 2011-12. Still, it’s *Justin Verlander* and he’s still pretty impressive. Iwakuma’s xFIP and ERA are better, but given Verlander’s death-to-lefties arsenal (his change and curve are both plus pitches; he last allowed a wOBA to lefties above .300 in 2008), it’s not like you’d bet all your money on an M’s win here. This is even more true given the bullpen’s struggles of late. Carter Capps looks like he can’t get anyone out at the moment, Yoervis Medina has slipped in the second half, and Oliver Perez looks a bit miffed he didn’t move to a contender in July.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Saunders, LF
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Blanco, C
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: ‘Kuma
What are all of you looking for in the last week+ of this forgettable season? Is there anything you could see/hear that would alter your opinion on the M’s 2014 standing, or change your mind about whether to bring back Zduriencik and/or Wedge? If so, what is it? If not, have you just tuned out completely, or do you watch because Baseball! and inertia?
Loved this piece by Dave on the A’s. I for one welcome our new divisional overlords, as the A’s have an interesting combination of seeming vulnerability and superior talent and roster construction. I’ve talked from time to time about the A’s ability to extract every drop of value from their players, and the bizarre way that value aligns (Reddick sucks? OK, Donaldson’s turn. Cahill’s gone? OK, McCarthy instantly turns good. McCarthy’s gone? Fine, Bartolo Colon does whatever voodoo trick he’s doing, etc.). This article by Sam Miller focuses solely on their bullpen – the A’s have pieced together a top-shelf ‘pen with spare parts and trade throw-ins. Amazing, right? Except that the A’s have run through something like 50 similar players to find the right seven guys. It’s not like they’re clearly, demonstrably better than the Rangers (or M’s) at finding scrap-heap guys. Part of the equation seems to be that they simply don’t stop acquiring them and distilling these guys down until they have a workable unit. Need a 2B? Ok, Jemile Weeks Scott Sizemore Grant Green Eric Sogard/Alberto Callaspo. They don’t stop trying different people, because they have almost nothing tied up in any player. I’d say the stakes are lower, but they’re the team in the playoffs and the M’s are the team doing…this. It’s an odd combination of platooning, relentless churn, sequencing, and savvy deployment of resources. Some of that (especially platooning) is something the M’s can learn from. Some of it seems serendipitous, and some of it doesn’t seem like it would quite apply (the M’s aren’t simply going to DFA Dustin Ackley when he starts off slow, any more than they’d ditch Carter Capps and promote…I don’t know, Brian Moran). But, like the A’s of 2000-2001, they certainly make you think.
Game 151, Mariners at Tigers
Brandon Maurer vs. Anibal Sanchez, 4:08pm
If last night’s game felt a bit hopeless, at least the M’s were facing a guy they’d had some success against, and a guy who struggled versus lefties. Today’s game….today’s game feels like a blowout waiting to happen. Checking the Vegas lines, it looks like I’m not alone- this game’s odds look bizarre. With the Tigers getting close to wrapping up the division, neither team has a great deal of motivation, but the Tigers still have a great line-up and a great starting pitcher while the M’s have some guys who might be part of a decent team in a few years, if things break right.
Anibal Sanchez came over from Miami last year with some talent, but somewhat underwhelming results. He wasn’t bad, but a guy with an injury history and who’d worked his FIP from the mid 4s down to the mid 3s sounded like a very good #3, or possibly #4. With the Tigers, however, Sanchez has been amazing. After 28 starts and 240 innings, he’s put up an RA of 3.2, driven largely by his brilliant 2013 campaign. Instead of seeing his K% fall with the league switch, Sanchez is posting a career high in K% this year at over 26%. His HR% is extremely low, leading to a FIP of under 2.5. That in turn has pushed his Fangraphs WAR to 5.5 and counting, good for 6th in baseball, just behind Felix and well ahead of Yu Darvish.
Sanchez uses a four-seam fastball which has gained a tick or two in velocity this year – it’s now pushing 94mph on average. His other weapon is a change-up that’s in the top 10 for whiff rate and that’s been extremely tough on lefties. He throws a slider and a rare curve as well, but his fastball and change are his bread and butter pitches. Sanchez has a high 3/4 release, and coupled with the fact that his torso’s tilted towards 1b, Sanchez’s release point is essentially on a line running through the center of home plate. In addition to his change, this may help his platoon splits, as neither righties nor lefties get the advantage of an off-center release point. Indeed, his career wOBA to lefties is 3.07, while his wOBA to righties is…3.08. This isn’t BABIP-driven, either. By FIP, his splits are 3.59 and 3.57 with over 2,000 batters-faced on each side.
He’d probably be getting some Cy Young hype since he’s posted a great ERA on a winning team, but his teammate’s 19-3 with more innings pitched, so there’s not going to be much debate. Still, this season’s taken me by surprise as a middle-of-the-rotation guy’s taken a big step forward to be a quality #2 who may get to 6 WAR or so by season’s end. He hasn’t picked up a new pitch, and his pitch mix is relatively similar to prior seasons, so the only noteworthy thing that jumps out has been his fastball results. Now, results-based analysis is frowned-upon in these parts, so I certainly can’t come to any conclusions here. He’s spotting it away from lefties and righties – trying to hit the black as opposed to trying to keep the pitch low. That’s fine and all, but it’s also not different than what he did in, say, 2011. It’s possible that a combination of improved command and his extra velocity make the pitch tough to drive, but that’s speculation. He’s throwing slightly fewer pitches in the zone, and his contact% has dropped markedly. However, his contact% has dropped for all pitches, not just fastballs – it’s just that his SLG%-allowed his fallen dramatically on four-seamers, and not as dramatically on anything else.
Brandon Maurer’s SLG% has dropped some too, but as I talked about last time, that’s not saying a whole lot. On the plus side, Maurer’s facing a line-up of five righties and only four lefties (Fielder, Martinez, Kelly and Avila), but then his struggles aren’t as limited to lefties anymore. Maurer’s talented, and I think he’ll figure some things out eventually. A game like this *could* give him a ton of confidence heading into the Arizona Fall League and 2014, but this looks painful on paper. Maurer’s confidence has to be in tatters right now, and hey, here comes Miguel Cabrera.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Saunders, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Maurer
Tango’s “Fans Scouting Report” is going on now. This is the defensive metric that’s based on YOUR evaluations of player hands, speed, arm, etc. It’s a great idea, and it’s something you can use on Fangraphs as a check on other advanced defensive metrics, and it’s fascinating on its own year after year. Tango’s always been a good friend of the blog, so let’s make sure he’s not lacking in Mariner submissions for this year’s FSR. Go fill it out! When I looked today, M’s fans had filled out fewer FSRs than Orioles, Reds, Royals and Tigers fans, and that aggression will not stand.
Bad news out of the minor leagues, as local kid and M’s relief prospect Forrest Snow was hit with a 50-game suspension for a violation of the MLB drug policy. Not sure at this point what that violation entailed.
Game 150, Mariners at Tigers
Joe Saunders vs. Rick Porcello, 4:07pm
The M’s continue their tour through heartland playoff races by facing off against the AL Central-leading Tigers today at Comerica. Unlike the Cards, the Tigers figure to have their division locked up, though Cleveland is five games back and have an extremely favorable schedule in the season’s final two weeks. Still, the action (and fans’ attention) is focused on the wildcard race, as the Indians try to hold off the Royals and leapfrog the Rays and Rangers. The M’s get to mess around in THAT big mess when they return home; they face the Royals at Safeco beginning on the 23rd.
Rick Porcello is one of those players whom many believe could be an entirely different kind of successful pitcher if he wanted to. This started not long after he was drafted by the Tigers with the 27th pick in the 2007 MLB draft. Don’t let that draft position fool you: he was ID’d as the best high-schooler in the draft, and only sunk because everyone knew his bonus demands were sky high. Just as they did in 2006 when UNC’s Andrew Miller fell in the draft due to bonus demands, the Tigers stepped up and paid Porcello an insane $11.1 million ($3.5m for a signing bonus, and a $7m+ contract). Everyone was suitably concerned then when he finished his first minor league season with a K/9 rate in the low 5’s. He was reasonably successful in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and the grounders were great, but where was the dominance? In the know fans suggested that he had one or two breaking balls that were lights-out, but which the Tigers had barred him from throwing so he could work on commanding his sinker. We’d all find out when he hit the majors the next year, at age 20.
Again, Porcello was successful, but his K% was a Beavanesque 12%. Were the Tigers *still* barring him from using his death-slider? Since that time, his K% has inched upwards from “laughable” to “meh” but there are still occasional calls for him to stop this nonsense and just strike everyone out (the assumption still being that he could, and that his style is a conscious choice). This always reminds me of the people who swore Ichiro could’ve been a 30-35HR guy, but he selfishly/unselfishly (whichever narrative you pick, you can fit this counterfactual to it!) chose to be a slap hitter. Wade Boggs could’ve done it too! The point is not to mock those who think there are players who *could* dominate but don’t want to for some reason, the point is that we tend to be more interested in Porcello’s strikeout rate than we would, I don’t know, Joe Saunders’. So when Porcello came out in the spring striking out everyone, it got noticed; Tigers fans were stoked.
As it happened, his K% fell back to his career rate in April (“awwww”) but then spiked in May (“woooo“) and has now settled back where it was. All told, his K% is up this year – he’s cracked the 6 K/9 barrier! – but he’s essentially tied with Doug Fister in that metric. None of this is to suggest Porcello is *bad,* he’s just different than we thought he’d be coming out of high school. He’s consistently posted good FIP marks, thanks to his GB% holding down his home runs allowed. But given his sinker-heavy arsenal, he’s posted fairly high platoon splits. Over his career, his FIP is about 1 full run higher vs. lefties than righties, and this year those splits are even more extreme. He’s gone to his curve more this season, and that’s helped him at the margins with lefties (it’s better than his change/sinker), but his K% change has been driven by his success against righties.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Almonte, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Joe Saunders
The M’s skip presumptive Cy Young winner Max Scherzer in this four-game set, but still face Porcello/Sanchez/Verlander and Fister, which…*sigh*.
Game 149, Mariners at Cardinals
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Shelby Miller, 11:15am
Shelby Miller, the former #1 prospect for the Cards, is putting together an excellent rookie campaign; in another year, he might get some rookie of the year votes, but with Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in the league, that’s just not going to happen. MIller uses his mid-90s fastball and big curve to rack up strikeouts, and he’ll also throw a couple of cutters and change-ups to give hitters another look. That he’s already an above-average MLB pitcher isn’t a huge shock – he was the Cards first round pick in 2009, and overpowered the lower minors in 2010 and 2011. That’s why many (including me) were surprised when he showed up in the PCL and got annihilated. Through June of 2012, Miller had given up 51 runs and 16 HRs in just 15 starts spanning just 71 innings. His velocity seemed to be down (though he was still putting up a decent K/9), and he simply wasn’t able to pitch out of trouble.
Like Rangers’ prospect Martin Perez, something clicked for him in the middle of the year, and he was able to regain the form that allowed him to destroy the AA Texas League. After dominating in a late-season call-up, he started 2013 in the Cardinals rotation, and he’s been excellent all season. His 3.6 FIP isn’t perfect, but the RA and K% (just about 25%) are good signs. His problem this year (and last, actually) has been the long ball. Miller’s fastball is thrown from a 3/4 angle and has led to a lot of elevated contact. It’s not a very high vertical movement pitch like Wacha’s, but it’s the primary reason Miller’s posting a GB% below 40%. His curve actually *does* get grounders, but for a valuable pitch, it gets a stunning lack of whiffs. I know curves aren’t always designed for swinging strikes (as they freeze hitters instead), it’s interesting that Erasmo Ramirez’s curve has a higher whiff rate…and it’s Ramirez’s third- or fourth-best pitch. Indeed, if you just looked at some plate discipline or pitch fx data, you might be surprised by Miller’s K%. His o-swing’s below league average. His curve generates contact, not strikes. He allows more contact overall than the league average. Part of the answer is that he’s always around the zone. His zone% is well above average, and he throws his curve for strikes instead of trying to get batters to chase it low and out of the zone.
Related to the HR problem is a factor that makes this a better match-up than you’d think: Miller’s always struggled against lefties. Miller’s curve actually has sizeable platoon splits, and his overall splits this year are fairly high. It’s a small sample, but it matches the pattern he showed in the minors; he had a 4.84 FIP vs. lefties in the PCL last season. The M’s line-up isn’t a bad one to face Miller, and while Guti starting ahead of a lefty bat isn’t ideal, the M’s still need to see what he’s capable of. Triunfel over Brad Miller is clearly sub-optimal, but the M’s didn’t have a choice after Brad injured his hamstring yesterday.
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Almonte, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Gutierrez, RF
6: Saunders, LF
7: Quintero, C
8: Triunfel, SS
9: Erasmo Ramirez, SP
It’s looking increasingly like Ackley’s move to CF is on life-support, if it isn’t over. Part of this may be related to Nick Franklin’s struggles offensively and defensively there, but I’m guessing the proximate cause is Abe Almonte’s emergence as a switch-hitting option in the OF. That’s cool and all, but doesn’t make the M’s off-season decisions regarding Ackley, Franklin and Saunders any easier.
In case you missed it, I wrote about the new NPB single-season HR king Wlad Balentien (and the first foreign contender for that record, Randy Bass) below.
Erasmo Ramirez has had a really odd season, with an uncharacteristic walk rate, HR troubles, and now platoon splits (none of which plagued him last year). That said, he’s been a solid option for the past month. But given Paxton’s emergence, he could probably use a solid close to his 2013 season to ensure he’s still penciled in to the rotation in 2014. Given his arm troubles, I think it’s likely he could take a big step forward next year, especially if his command returns. But with two injuries in two years, he’s got to show he can withstand the grind of an MLB season (especially given his stature). C’mon, Erasmo.
First Half In Review: Mariners Go Sailing
In a belated continuation of another stupid tradition, here we’ll summarize each player’s first half with a selected word(s) from the Wikipedia page for “mariner“.
First Half In Review: Passing Out The Grades
As we wait out the remainder of the MLB All-Star Break, the Seattle Mariners sit at 43-52, 13 games out of first place but just two games behind the Angels, which would be encouraging to someone who’s been out of touch since being deployed overseas by the military in the middle of spring training. People like to think of the break as the season’s halfway point, and for the Mariners that’s exactly true as they’ll shortly resume their ordinary 190-game campaign. But before we all focus on what’s to come, we have here an opportunity to reflect on what’s already happened, and for purposes of providing a quick summary, below you’re going to find a completely subjective and arbitrary team report card, broken down player by player.
One thing you could do is go to FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference and look up how the team’s players have done, in case you don’t know and are curious. There’s no reason at all to trust these assigned letter grades, because the grades are just lousy inconsistent substitutes for the meaningful statistics themselves, but I’ve done this every year for as long as I can remember and when you have traditions you can’t just up and buck them, if I’ve learned anything from Major League Baseball. You need to do things the way you’ve always done them, and I’ve always done stupid midseason report cards, so here’s a stupid midseason report card, featuring every player who’s played on the 2013 Mariners. It’s split between position players and pitchers, and if you want to argue any of these grades, be my guest, metaphorically. Don’t be my guest, literally, because I don’t want to have you. It’s nothing against you. Well yeah it is. I don’t know why I said it isn’t. Stay away from my apartment!
Report card to follow. The methodology behind each grade can be best summarized as “sure, why not.” Seriously though please don’t argue, if you want to argue take the time instead to think about what you were going to do. To think about what you were going to argue. Why? Just, why? We’re all dying.