Gam3 53, Angels at Mariners
Brandon Maurer vs. Matt Shoemaker, 7:10pm
There’s nothing like seeing Felix pitching well. He started the year brilliantly, then struggled, culminating in a weirdly un-Kingly game in which he struck out no one. But since then, he’s gone 31 1/3 IP with 30 strikeouts to just four walks. That’s encouraging, and it’s good to remember and ponder, because today’s match-up does not feature that kind of potential.
Today’s game features Matt Shoemaker, the righty who’s struggled mightily for many years in AAA, but who came up for a single start last year and, predictably, blanked the M’s over 5 innings. He’s been OK as a spot starter this year as well, though he’s continued to bounce back and forth between Anaheim and the PCL, his personal hell. The start was supposed to be lefty Wade LeBlanc’s, but after Sean Burnett’s injury, they’ve moved LeBlanc to the bullpen to have another southpaw. That meant Shoemaker didn’t have to spend the normally-required ten days in the minors after being optioned.
Last year, we knew nothing about Shoemaker, but now at least we know what he throws. He’s a fastball/change-up guy primarily, with a slider and the occasional curve. He tops out around 91, but his slider looks like an OK pitch. His change has been oddly successful in the majors, as it’s clearly not fooling minor league lefties. His start last year certainly was very successful, though perhaps not predictive; that game’s M’s line-up included Carlos Triunfel, Franklin Gutierrez, Henry Blanco, Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jones, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Franklin, DH
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: :deep sigh: Brandon Maurer. C’mon big fella.
Eight lefties – very nice.
Erasmo Ramirez starts tonight for Tacoma. Taijuan Walker made it through three so-so innings, but gave up four runs on a three-run HR to Efren Navarro and then Luis Jimenez went back-to-back. Still, there’ve been no reports of soreness, or inflammation or other problems following the outing. Again, it was his first outing of the year, something most M’s hurlers got out of the way back in February or early March.
Game 5, Attempt 2: Mariners at Swamp Things
King Felix vs. DAN STRAILY. SERIOUSLY. 1:05pm
I swear, one of these times I write that the M’s are facing Dan Straily today, it’ll actually happen. But enough of that: Happy Felix Day!
The A’s left the tarp off their field, the skies opened, and the infield was the consistency of cottage cheese, hence the rain-out of a game in which it wasn’t actually raining. The field was in such a sorry state that it’s not certain that the M’s and A’s will get THIS game in, and it was the deciding factor in playing only one game today instead of trying to get a double-header in. On the upside, the M’s can go back to Felix Hernandez on regular rest and push Chris Young to the long-relief role that had been filled by that guy who came over in a trade or whatever…can’t think of his name.
Line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Seager, 3B
7: Morrison, RF
8: Ackley, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: King Felix
I went to the Rainiers opening day double-header last night. They won their opener in grand style, with Blake Beavan going all the way (that’s 7IP), giving up 1 run and striking out 6. The bigger story was the offense, which annihilated Albuquerque’s pitchers, especially starter Stephen Fife. The Isotopes won game 2, despite HRs from Cole Gillespie and Nick Franklin. Those two looked very good; one of Franklin’s few outs on the day was a deep drive caught against the wall in left.
The games were interesting for two reasons. The opener brought back memories of the big three way trade from a few years ago when the M’s sent Erik Bedard to Boston. Trayvon Robinson, who came to the M’s in that deal, led off for the Isotopes. Their battery, Fife and C Tim Federowicz, were the pieces moving from Boston to the Dodgers in that deal. All we needed was Josh Fields, but though he had the most uncertain future at the time, he’s in the big leagues. Where have you gone, Chih-Hsien Chang? The second game featured Miguel Olivo behind the plate and Carlos Triunfel in the infield. All watched over by former M’s scout Hide Sueyoshi, who is also now with the Dodgers (along with Bob Engle).
Taijuan Walker’s rehab start in High Desert went quite well. After a so-so first inning, he settled in, and finished with a line of 4 1/3 IP, 4H, 1R, 1BB, 7Ks. DJ Peterson hit his first High-A HR.
2014 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
If you’re now wondering about this or that player whom you may not be seeing in these previews, I’d recommend starting here and scrolling back through their archives to see who has been released lately. Those not released are either in extended or injured in some way. This year it was particularly a who’s who of “oh yeah, I remember that guy! Man, whatever happened to him?” Lots of guys who at one point were draft intrigues or ranked at the back end of top 30 lists based on an interesting thing or two that they could do. The Rainiers this year seem to be… average? The rotation is uninteresting and uninspiring at the moment, but competent. The bullpen fares better on the account of employing a couple Destroyers of Worlds and a few other guys who you could probably trust with a lead. The catchers know how to catch and the infielders mostly know how to hit and the outfielders, if nothing else, can run a ball down. It’s not a star-powered roster or anything but it can probably manage out there in the wilds of the PCL.
As for where the ramblings take us, we have schadenfreude, pica (sort of), everyone’s favorite rhetorical technique, guys who could be in Pantene commercials, the 188th most popular male baby name of the 1980s, dread and doomsaying, players the Oakland A’s would probably like, and repeated instances of name confusion and pointless conjecture. Let’s get to it.
2014 Jackson Generals Preview
Good morning, people still on a high after sweeping the Angels for the first time since 2006. I can’t think of a more deserving group. This will be the third installment in which I address the state of our double-A Jackson Generals of the Southern League, formerly the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx. I miss those Xs sometimes, it’s nostalgic in a 90s sort of way. The digression machine this round takes me to the unreliability of the written word properly conveying tone, unpopular music opinions (I have MANY), splicing of data that the mind refuses to process, my preferences in hard liquor, a Wilson Valdez name check, things that seem really Irish, someone I describe as being a professional enigma (and translate into how unpopular my music opinions can be), the depression that follows an encounter with the sublime knowing that day-to-day life is going to fail to live up to it later, and… I think that covers it.
There’s not a lot of high-end talent, we’re talking one top ten guy, one on the fringe of that, a guy in the late teens, a guy or two in the twenties, and various thirty/forty-somethings. It’s better than High Desert, probably not quite the ceiling that the top guys have in Clinton, but you know what? This rotation looks good. The bullpen has some solid contributors and few weak points. The catchers are reliable. The infield has some guys that can drive the ball and the outfield has some that can cover ground and all of the starters out there can hit. Some of these players, even at this level, are still improving, still somewhat unknown to me, and with some things breaking right, they could really be a force. Could be a middle of the road team, but there’s potential for a lot more. I like this team. I like where it’s going. Let’s get to it.
Game 3, Mariners at Angels
James Paxton vs. Hector Santiago, 7:05pm
Last season, the M’s had two great starters and, for most of the year anyway, a gooey mess of a back end rotation. Tonight, we get our first peek at the new and hopefully improved rotation as lefty James Paxton takes the hill. I’ve written tons about Paxton, but he’s become critically important this year. With Walker and Iwakuma’s delayed start, and with the questions surrounding Elias and Young, it’s vital that the M’s get actual production and not just replacement-level stand-ins behind Felix. The division is tight, and having Felix surrounded by four scrubs would certainly remove one of the four contenders. Erasmo Ramirez showed that he can be tough to hit when he’s healthy; now it’s Paxton’s turn.
Opposing him is lefty Hector Santiago who came in from the White Sox in the big 3-way trade involving Mark Trumbo. Santiago throws a bunch of pitches, but is primarily a fastball/change guy, with some surprising life on his fastball. Both in the rotation and in the pen, he’s generated high strikeout rates that have helped keep his runs allowed manageable given his two big problems: walks and home runs. Santiago’s walk rate is over 11%, and he’s given up over 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. It’s a big reason why his FIP and xFIP are in the mid-4’s – not someone you’d trade anyone of value for. But his ERA is lovely. Consider him a very poor man’s Hisashi Iwakuma. Like Kuma, Santiago’s ERA is a run lower than his FIP. His change-up helps him minimize platoon splits, but unlike Kuma, Santiago still has them. Kuma doesn’t walk anyone,* but the HRs and sequencing push his runs allowed far below what you’d expect looking at his three true outcomes. Santiago is only good by ONE of the three true outcomes, but on the plus side, he’s moving from a park that’s very HR friendly to a HR-suppressing park.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Romero, RF
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Bloomquist, 3B
SP: Paxton, LHP
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Fangraphs now has pre-game win expectancy on their scores page. Here’s tonight’s. You can see that the model still isn’t buying the M’s offense, especially against a lefty. Last night’s game was one of the most lopsided, with the Angels having a hair over a 60% chance of winning. Tonight’s is a mere 58%. It’ll be fun to see how these change over the course of the season as the systems learn more about Paxton/Erasmoooo. Right now, they’re probably underrating them.
Willie Bloomquist makes his first start, giving Seager a night off. I’m curious to see how Seager holds up with increased rest this year.
Bob Dutton points out that Joe Beimel’s pick-off in last night’s game was called from the bench. Whether it was McClendon or the bench coach, nice call.
Carlos Triunfel is now the property of the LA Dodgers org.
* I said a VERY POOR MAN’s Kuma, ok?
Cactus League Games 14-15, Royals at Mariners; Mariners at D-Backs
Maurer vs. Shields, 1:05pm; Paxton vs. Corbin, 7:10pm
Split squad, plus a prime-time TV game on the docket today.
One of the best things about these split squad games is the chance to see some players we haven’t had a chance to see in the high minors. In the recent game against the Dodgers (Montero’s 2-HR game), we got a look at top-10 M’s prospect Tyler Marlette, for example. Last year, we got to see Chris Taylor or Taijuan Walker.
Today’s early game features a related-yet-distinct phenomenon. Your starting 1B is Jeffrey Zimmerman, a 19th-round draft pick last year out of Northern Illinois University. Zimmerman played three years for the Huskies, and left as a second-team all-MAC conference player – he played in 40 some-odd games for Pulaski in the Appy league last year, again hitting .300 and knocking 5 HRs. This is the most I’ve ever written about Zimmerman, and it may be one of the few times I do so. But hey, Zimmerman’s starting this contest, and he’ll stand in against James Shields.
“Who cares? Why does it matter if a 19th-rounder starts a game?” It doesn’t, of course. But that argument proves a bit too much. You can say the same thing about any of these games. In a baseball sense, Zimmerman hasn’t really existed – he’s somewhere in bbref’s minor league stats, near the ex-Ranger all-star Jeff Zimmerman and his brother, the ex-Mariner reliever Jordan Zimmerman. Today, Jeffrey A. Zimmerman exists in some not-terribly meaningful sense. May you destroy a Shields change-up the way Carlos Peguero used to do.
Line-up, gm 1:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, DH
5: Franklin, SS
6: Jones, RF
7: Avery, LF
8: Zimmerman, Hell Yeah
9: Buck, C
SP: Brandon Maurer
And the Game 2 line-up:
1: Miller, SS
2: Bloomquist, 2B
3: Romero, LF
4: Morrison, 1B
5: Montero, DH
6: Saunders, RF
7: Zunino, C
8: Chavez, CF
9: Triunfel, 3B
SP: Paxton
Cactus League Game 10, Randy Wolf vs. Aging+Attrition
Randy Wolf vs. Ulnar, God of Elbows (er, Sean Marshall, actually).
So this is another spring training game. The M’s host half of the not-really Cincinnati Reds today. DJ Peterson may get to play, as he did yesterday, but c’mon – it’s another practice game. Mayckol Guaipe has been called up to add depth to the bullpen, which is perhaps the most spring training sentence I could write. So let’s talk about two other things.
First, Taijuan Walker’s shoulder reacted well to his limited, light throwing yesterday, which seems like a good thing.
Second, let’s talk about Randy Wolf for a minute, because it’s possible he makes the team and we should know about what he brings to the table, and it’s possible he doesn’t and opts out of a minor league assignment. Either way, I think I’d actually rather talk about Wolf than about how the M’s deal with Billy Hamilton. Specifically, why’d the M’s choose a recovering Wolf over a bargain price on Chris Capuano?
It’s entirely possible Capuano just wanted to play for his hometown team, and that the M’s were prepared to offer him a lot more money. Wolf and Capuano are both lefties who’ve spent their entire careers in the National League (OK, Wolf’s had all of 15 IP in the AL). Both have slower-than-average fastballs that clock in between 88-89mph, and both have similar career GB rates (Capuano’s is slightly better, as is the trendline, as he started out as a big fly-baller). Capuano’s mostly a sinker/change-up/slider guy, though he’s played around with a curve last year. Wolf is more the classic junk-baller, as he throws a four-seamer, a sinker, a slider, a cutter, a curve, and a change. Mere proximity to Hisashi Iwakuma might get him experimenting with a splitter, I don’t know.
Both of them have run better-than-expected strikeout rates despite the lack of velocity or a real weapon in their arsenal. And to the extent that they both share a weakness (besides pedestrian fastballs), it’s clearly the longball. A few less walks gives Capuano the advantage in career FIP, at 4.25 to Wolf’s 4.37, but while both have suffered multiple injuries, Wolf’s been more durable. As they both pitched so long in the NL, it’s highly unlikely that either of them would carry that surprising K rate to the AL, because both of them have feasted on pitchers. Remove pitchers, and their K% drops to 16.8% (Wolf) and 18.2% (Capuano). Cap’s got the advantage, but he largely missed out on the lower-strikeout, higher-HR steroid ERA, which Wolf had to trudge through in his early years. Both have really struggled in interleague play, meaning, when they’ve faced teams with DHs.
The bigger split is kind of interesting. Capuano’s posted huge L/R platoon splits despite throwing a change-up between 1/4 and 1/3 of his pitches. Wolf’s got a platoon split as well, but it looks more normal. He throws his change a bit more often vs. righties, but the biggest difference is that he throws his sinker to righties, while reserving the four-seamer for LHBs. All told, his SLG% allowed comes in a bit lower, and he doesn’t show a big platoon split in power. Capuano, on the other hand, gives up a lot of HRs to righties, on his way to a total OPS-allowed of over .800. The difference isn’t huge, but it’s there.
As Dave discussed recently regarding Bronson Arroyo, the two leagues aren’t equal in how they can exploit platoon advantages. The NL Central in particular has allowed pitchers (like Arroyo) to have the platoon advantage much more than any AL team would (as they can ensure the DH is opposite-handed, and AL teams have split-obsessed GMs like Billy Beane). All of this adds up to some red flags where Capuano’s concerned. HR-prone lefty moving to the AL, where his huge platoon split issue can be more directly targeted. You can argue that none of this overcomes the age/talent gap he may have on Wolf. I’m sort of agnostic on that question, but the gap in dollars and commitment (MLB deal vs. MiLB and NRI) is real too. Wolf’s older and coming off a 2nd big surgery. Capuano’s essentially always hurt, though, and Wolf threw 200IP in 2011, whereas Capuano last threw 200 back in 2006. As a LOOGY, Capuano makes a ton of sense to an AL team. To the M’s, with Furbush, Luetge, LaFromboise, Roenis Elias, etc., he’d be much less use. I’m not saying that Wolf is awesome and way better than Capuano, though I’m starting to think he’s a better bet for the M’s needs right now.
Oh yeah, a line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Franklin, SS
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, RF
6: Morrison, DH
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Wolf
No Cano again, but it’s not an injury – he had a root canal. Yeesh, sorry Robby – get well soon.
John Stearns has officially stepped down from his role as 3B coach, and Rich Donnelly will continue to fill it. But Donnelly’d already been announced as the Rainiers’ manager; guess that means Tacoma’s suddenly without a manager. As long-time R’s skipper Daren Brown’s still in the org (he was to be the roving instructor on bunting and baserunning), I wouldn’t be surprised to see him step in.
Cactus League Games 5+6: Rockies at Mariners, and Mariners at Reds
Blake Beavan vs. Brett Anderson, Erasmo Ramirez vs. Alfredo Simon, 12:05
The M’s split into two groups today to take on Colorado and Cincinnati. The benefits of this baseballing mitosis are several: they get to take a look at two candidates for the 5th starter job (at least until Iwakuma’s back) in one day, and they’re able to showcase Nick Franklin at SS while giving Brad Miller some game action as well. Logan Morrison can play 1B AND Justin Smoak can play 1B.
Courtesy of Shannon Drayer, Kyle Seager’s absence from the line-up now has an explanation: he jammed his finger sliding into 3B in the first game, and should be ready to return to the line-up soon. That’s great news for everyone but Nate Tenbrink.
Peoria Line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Franklin, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Ackley, LF
7: Avery, RF
8: Bloomquist, 3B
9: Quintero, C
SP: Beavan
Gooodyear line-up:
1: Chavez, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Morrison, 1B
4: Montero, DH
5: Saunders, RF
6: Romero, LF
7: Tenbrink, 3B
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Ramirez
The game in Peoria will be broadcast on local radio (710am) on delay, but should be streaming live at mariners.com.
Here’s a good article on the fielding system I talked about yesterday by Jack Moore.
The UW Huskies baseball team kicked off baseball at Cheney Stadium this week with a planned four-game set against UC-Davis. They got in three games – one on Friday, and a doubleheader Saturday, before Sunday’s contest was rained out. UW won all three games.
Cactus League Game 3, Angels-at-Mariners vs. the Elements
Scott Baker vs. CJ Wilson
With the news that the M’s are resigned to start the season with both Tai Walker and Hisashi Iwakuma on the disabled list, Scott Baker’s starts should generate a bit more interest. Baker’s elbow injury was an odd one, and his recovery has not been terribly smooth. But the M’s suddenly need him to be a better-than-replacement level arm to help stabilize their rotation.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Avery, RF
3: CANO, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Morrison, DH
6: Ackley, LF
7: Miller, SS
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 3B
Good test for Smoak and Miller facing the lefty Wilson today.
Mariners Needed to Change; Mariners In Process of Changing
You probably don’t need to read more about how some blogger feels about the Cano acquisition, but, hey, you’re reading a baseball blog. So if you’ll indulge me, this is the third panel of the Cano-analysis triptych.* Dave’s measured lament, Jeff’s cautious…excitement, and now this: I have talked myself into liking this. This is one of those cases where pretty much everyone agrees on the potential gains, the risks, and the alternatives. How you feel about the trade – beyond the universal vertiginous feeling that the phrase “10 years, $240 million” produces – depends on how much you emphasize one versus the other. So here’s what I’m emphasizing: the status quo, as of Thursday, was pretty damned awful.
Yes, yes, the objection is easy: that proves too much. Trading Hisashi Iwakuma for a proverbial can of Sprite would also “shake things up” and alter the status quo. Adding Robinson Cano, I think we can all agree, is not that sort of a shake up. The M’s have kept their valuable prospects (for now) and added one of the best players in baseball. As Jeff said, I’d hoped that this is the route they’d go down, and they have. But you can’t think about the potential careers of guys like Tai Walker and Chris Taylor or Brad Miller without ruminating on the failure (or at least disappointment) of the first wave of M’s prospects under Jack Z. Dustin Ackley is not chopped liver, but is closer to chopped liver than he is to peak-period Chase Utley. Johermyn was a slugger, then just “toolsy”, then a pitcher, and is now a minor league free agent. Danny Hultzen went from #3, to potential ace, to mechanical nightmare to hurt. Vinnie Catricala was great until one day, he wasn’t. Josh Fields. Carlos Triunfel. Alex Liddi. You get the picture.
Obviously, no team turns 100% of their top 10 into MLB regulars. But there was a moment there in 2009-10 when it seemed that the M’s just drafted and developed better than other teams. This club doesn’t need to play in free agency; if they need another lefty reliever, they’ve got 5 of them ready to go. Another middle infielder? Mac and GMZ grow them hydroponically. No one thinks that way anymore, for good reason. This team tried to build a winner by building a home-grown core and adding complementary pieces around it. They failed.
This wasn’t a case of a bad break here or there. Essentially each piece of the plan – technically, the execution of the plan – was flawed. The team clearly came into 2013 needing big years from the anointed line-up core of Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. And as disappointing as those three have been, the record with the complementary pieces isn’t much better. Think back on Ian Snell, on Jack Cust, or Milton Bradley. Of course there’ve been some bargain-bin successes, like Russell Branyan, and, hilariously, Mike Sweeney. But the great feedback loop with vets helping prospects helping the next wave of prospects never materialized. They’ve tried it one way, and it hasn’t worked. Personally, I’m not eager to see them double down on the same strategy. Let’s be clear: the plan they tried to implement – develop a young core and add around it – was a *great* idea. That’s what all of us would recommend to any non-Yankees, non-Dodgers club. It’s just that this front office wasn’t good enough to pull it off.
So if you can’t trust an FO to spend wisely, how can you support a…there’s that feeling again…10 year, $240 million contract to one guy? Because there’s no way to avoid the fact that Cano is one of the five best ballplayers in the world. You develop your own core because it’s way, way cheaper than buying one off the shelf. Cheaper, but as we’ve seen, harder to do. So they’re paying retail and simply BUYING their franchise core. Could he implode? Sure he could. Would it be better to spread the risk around 2-3 very good free agents? Maybe, maybe not. If one of the alternatives has a degenerative hip condition and the other is an overrated free agent pitcher, I’m not sure you’ve radically altered the risk profile. Cano costs more because he comes with fewer questions. For whatever reason, the M’s haven’t been really good at finding great bargains (Iwakuma is the massive exception), so they paid for a sure thing.
Yes, the deal will look “bad” in seven years. The question is “how bad?” and “what will it prevent the M’s from doing?” If baseball inflation, fueled by dizzying TV revenue and MLBAM’s bargaining, continues the way it has, then the deal won’t be any sort of a problem. If it IS an impediment, there are two possible reasons why: one, that the M’s have added a lot of complementary pieces or signed some young stars to long extensions. That is, it’s a problem because the M’s finally identified their window, and are in the thick of the AL race. It would be frustrating if, in 2020, the Cano deal is a problem them, but *that is the kind of problem I would like to have.* I’m sick of the M’s current problem, which is a complete inability to play baseball at a level approaching that of their AL West rivals. The second reason the contract could be an impediment in 2020 is that the TV party is over, inflation stops or even kicks over into deflation, and the M’s regional sports network is an albatross and not a golden goose. Compared to this, the Cano contract is nothing – if the cable TV market implodes, then yes, it’s going to be tough to pay Cano. If the cable TV market implodes, though, the M’s (and baseball) will have much, much bigger problems than dead money to an aging 2B.
That the M’s now own a majority of their RSN actually helps align incentives here. There’s still no business I’d be more scared to invest in today than cable TV, but that decision was last year’s nervous-excited-dizzying move. If the M’s are to get some of that delicious, luxury-tax-shielded revenue from the RSN’s profits, the M’s need viewers. Right now, they don’t have any. It’s easy to say that the M’s got desperate and attempted to buy relevance instead of a contending team, but just because the M’s needed something doesn’t mean they bought the wrong thing. Of course adding Cano, by itself, won’t magically produce ratings like 2002’s. But the M’s got better yesterday, and they’ve got much better than they would have by waiting for one of the youngsters to develop into a superstar. The M’s have an opportunity to add pieces around Cano and be a good (not just “promising”) club in 2015.
This highlights a problem: we’re trying to evaluate this deal without knowing what else is coming. We can only see half the picture right now. This deal will look disappointing (not necessarily ‘terrible’) if their prospects continue to fizzle out and if they’re unable to add any meaningful talent around Cano. That is, they’d be in a very similar position that they’d be in without this move. The serious risk is several years out, when we have very little ability to measure it. That doesn’t mean that seeing this as a desperate gamble is necessarily wrong, it’s just that the M’s likely have several years to plan for and deal with the consequences of that gamble. The M’s could see what they have in 2014 and make a serious push at 2015. They could also make a couple of disastrous trades and make a run at 2014 instead. As Jeff mentioned, Price-for-Walker is the deal to worry about. You can argue that getting Cano makes those risks somehow more likely, as it’s now easier for someone to claim that the M’s are good enough to justify a win-now trade like Walker/Price, but the problem there doesn’t have anything to do with the Cano deal itself – you need to take some imaginative leaps and analytical failures to get to the really, really damaging part. Could the M’s screw this up? Of course, they’re the M’s. I’ve been about as pessimistic about this club as anyone, and it’s easy to itemize how to start with Cano and end with a smoldering wreck of an organization. We all want to guess at and second guess at the next two or three moves. But let’s look at this in isolation for a minute: the M’s just added a brilliant player (a brilliant *player* and not a brilliant ‘power hitter’ or ‘line-up legitimizer’ or whatever) and didn’t give up any talent to do so.
This could all go wrong, in 6 years or 6 weeks. But almost everything’s gone wrong for the past three years. The M’s added several wins at a stroke, and they have given themselves an opportunity to change the AL West race in a few years. I’m all for adding wisely, and building internally, but the gap between the M’s and the teams they’re chasing was so big, the task has seemed impossible. The M’s have in no way completed that task, and while they’ve added some risk way down the road, they’ve bought something really important for the next three-four years: possibility.
* I have unwittingly made Jeff’s post’s title a lie. Sorry Jeff. Sorry everyone.