USSM Chat – 2/17/11
I’ll swing by around noon and we’ll talk Mariners baseball for a while. I’ll open up the queue a bit early so you guys can leave questions ahead of time.
Junior Returns… And Stuff I Care About
The big news today is that the M’s announced that Ken Griffey Jr will join the team as a special consultant – I believe this means that he’s going to charge $150 an hour, come into the office once a week, and make the same suggestions that salaried employees have been making for years. Okay, so maybe he’s not going to be that kind of consultant. What he is going to do revolves mostly around PR, and his role will likely be more about capitalizing on his name value to attract fans and keep the team in the news. Greg Johns has more details on Junior’s role, along with some quotes and the like.
To be honest, this piece of news doesn’t really interest me all that much. Perhaps its a sign of how different my perspective is from that of the average Mariner fan, but I just don’t have any kind of enthusiasm about this. I’m not against it, I’m just ambivalent towards it. Junior was a great player, but I’m just kind of tired of talking about him, and his new position with the organization doesn’t really have any meaningful impact on the team from my perspective. I’m sure we’ll hear about how great he is working with players and such, but in terms of tangible benefits, I just don’t see this changing anything.
It will probably help the team financially, as I’d imagine they’ll get a pretty great amount of media coverage for what is probably not a very large salary, but that’s not really something that I care about all that much. I want the team to win, and I like talking about ways that the team can improve their on field product. From that perspective, this is something of a non-story, but because it’s Griffey, it’s news. If it interests you, that’s awesome – I’m just not in the same boat.
In terms of other things that are going on, I enjoyed Johns’ article on Josh Lueke, not necessarily because I agree with Lueke’s point of view, but it is interesting to hear his thoughts on how he’s perceived. I also liked this quote:
“I really don’t worry about what people think,” he said. “I guess I never have. I just try to stay positive in my day-to-day. Like my dad says, you were born with thick skin, so just keep it.”
To which I reply – have you ever accidentally inflicted a minor amount of pain on a baby? Said something that a three-year-old didn’t like? I would suggest that, if children are our evidence, we were definitively not born with thick skin. Your father lied to you, sir.
Besides that, not a ton of news to talk about. Erik Bedard threw and didn’t immediately report to the trainers room, so that’s something. But, realistically, the Mariners know that they can’t count on Bedard. He’s a wild card, and anything he gives them is a bonus. Once he’s actually throwing live in Cactus League games, we’ll start to talk about whether he’s a legitimate option for the Opening Day roster.
Also, just to let you guys know, I’m resuming my weekly chats with Toby Howell and the gang over at 1510 KGA in Spokane on Tuesdays this year. We did a segment tonight, and will be doing them every Tuesday at 5:15 going forward. I’ll try to post frequent reminders for those interested.
Finally, I’m looking at doing a live chat here on the site on Thursday, probably around noon. We’ll try to make those a somewhat regular feature going forward.
Catching Up On The News
Sorry about the lack of content here lately, but hopefully you survived without daily updates on the minor league free agents the M’s were bringing in. I took a few weeks off to focus on other responsibilities, but with spring training set to kick off shortly, we’ll get back in the more regular writing swing of things. For now, let’s catch up on what the M’s have been doing the last few weeks, and we’ll go in order of things you should care about.
Yesterday, Ben Badler of Baseball America announced that the M’s had signed 17-year-old Gabriel Guerrero, the nephew of one Vladimir Guerrero, for $400,000 – an amount that suggests he’s a prospect of some potential beyond his bloodlines. Badler calls him a right fielder with good raw power and a strong arm, and given the last name, you can be sure he’ll draw a lot of comparisons to his famous uncle. Don’t get too excited yet, though – he’s just 17 and most of these kids don’t pan out. Still, it’s nice to see the M’s being proactive in bringing young talent into the system, and Bob Engle’s track record of identifying which kid to sign is better than most.
Today, the Mariners announced that charges will not be filed against Milton Bradley in the case involving his domestic dispute, and that they will have no further comment on the matter. With the courts deciding not to prosecute, this probably becomes something that the team will just ignore. They may still jettison Bradley at some point in March (I have a hard time seeing him opening the year on the roster, honestly), but they won’t be using his latest off the field incident as the reason.
Going back to yesterday, the Mariners also announced that they signed RHP Manny Delcarmen to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. What do you need to know about Delcarmen? He throws hard, but not as hard as he used to, and he hasn’t been any good for a while. If you like David Aardsma but wish he didn’t strike out so many batters, you’ll love Delcarmen. For more reasons to not be overly excited about his addition, read Jeff Sullivan’s note on his declining fastball. That isn’t to say this move is bad or worthless, as pitchers are weird and the general idea is to just get as many as possible and let them fight to the death, but don’t count on Delcarmen coming in and blowing the doors off down in Peoria.
Last week, the Mariners signed Gabe Gross to a minor league deal as well, and he also gets a minor league invite. I actually have a soft spot for Gross and think there’s still a chance he could help a big league team, but it’s hard to see how he’ll fit in with the Mariners. With Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans, and Jody Gerut already around, the organization wasn’t exactly running low on left-handed corner outfielders. Gross might be marginally more useful than Gerut, but he doesn’t have Langerhans’ defensive abilities or Saunders’ upside, and as a lefty, he’s not a candidate for a part-time platoon role. He’ll probably head to Tacoma and hope he can hit enough in Triple-A to impress someone.
Pitchers and catchers report on Sunday. For all the news on guys showing up and getting weighed, you should follow the likes of Larry Stone (@stonelarry), Ryan Divish (@ryandivish) Greg Johns (@gregjohnsmlb), and Shannon Drayer (@shannondrayer) on twitter. I probably won’t be providing minute by minute updates of how Player X is in the best shape of his life, but will weigh in (see what I did there?) when there’s something interesting to talk about.
Spring Training Events
I’ve been working on putting this together for a while now, and this morning, I officially announced a few events that I’m planning for my FanGraphs trip to the Cactus League in March. For all the details, you can check out the full announcement, but here are the basics.
On Friday, March 11th, we’re taking our staff to Goodyear for a match-up between the Indians and the Mariners. We’ve reserved space in the Right Field Pavillion area, which includes unlimited food and non-alcoholic beverages. We’re also hosting a pre-game Q&A with some folks from the Indians front office, so if you’re interested in hearing the perspective of another team’s front office, that’s included in the event. If you’re going to be attending that days Mariners spring training game, now you have the option of watching it with me (and most of the FanGraphs staff) if you’re so inclined.
The following evening, March 12th, we’re hosting a series of panel discussions in a conference room at our hotel. I’ve invited a few executives from different Major League organizations to come, and there may be a member of the M’s front office in that group, so this will act as something similar to prior USSM events we’ve done before, just without the specific Mariners-only focus.
Those two events are on the schedule. Beyond that, I’m likely going to be in Peoria for the M’s game against the A’s on March 12th as well, and if there’s enough interest from folks headed down, we’ll put together some kind of group ticket purchase and watch that game together as well. If you’re interested in that possibility, leave a comment below and we’ll gauge whether that’s something we want to pursue.
Duchscherer Talking to M’s, Two Other Lousy Teams
Over the twitter wire this afternoon, news has come that the Mariners are one of three finalists for the services of Justin Duchscherer, the other two being the Orioles and the Nationals. One can only imagine how agonizing the decision must be. Dan Connolly, who is breaking the story, adds that he has more than one major league offer on the table.
You probably remember Duchscherer from the Oakland A’s. He shut us out for seven innings last year, and has been an all-star twice in his career. He’s also been injured off and on, with hip, bicep, shoulder, and back injuries along with a bout with depression a couple years back. Over the past two seasons combined, he’s pitched fewer than 40.0 innings.
Assuming he’s healthy and his command is in order, he could be added to the Robertson/French/Pauley mix we have going for the final spot in the rotation and/or swingman. Duke is one of those weird pitchers that doesn’t have great stuff, but possesses a deep enough arsenal to keep hitters off-balance, and has managed to run a lower than average BABIP throughout his career, a .235 mark aiding his 2008 campaign. We can’t really expect him to do that again, but for an overall fit in the organization in the short-term, we could do worse than this.
Welcome to the last few weeks before spring training, everyone.
Edit: And now they’re out of it. Resume whatever activity you were occupied with before.
A’s Pursuing Figgins
An interesting rumor has popped up this morning, as Joe Stiglich of the Contra Costa Times is reporting that the A’s are trying to swap Kevin Kouzmanoff for Chone Figgins. Ken Rosenthal has since confirmed the report, and he’s the most reliable guy in the business on this front. So, there’s almost certainly something to this.
If the M’s have a chance to unload Figgins’ contract, they have to do it. I wrote about why they should trade Figgins back in August. Circumstances have changed since they signed him last winter, and at this point, he’s unlikely to still be a positive asset by the time the Mariners are ready to challenge for the AL West title again. Unless the A’s are asking the M’s to pick up significant amounts of money, the answer to any deal where the M’s get to dump the rest of his contract should be yes.
Beyond just dumping Figgins, though, Kouzmanoff actually would be a decently valuable piece to get back in return. By UZR, he’s an above average defender at third, rating out at +6.1 runs per 150 games over his career. He’s not Adrian Beltre, but he can play a pretty solid third base. Offensively, he’s actually kind of similar to Jose Lopez (commence cringing… now) in that he doesn’t walk much, has slightly above average power, and has played his entire career in home parks that have been disastrous for him. Kouzmanoff’s overall numbers don’t look great, but his home/road splits are pretty telling: .242/.288/.386 at home, .273/.315/.461 on the road. While he won’t get much of a boost while playing in Safeco, we at least don’t have to adjust his numbers down, as we do with most right-handed bats. We already know about how well he’ll hit in ridiculous pitcher’s parks, since he’s done it his whole career.
It’s not the kind of package the M’s should be signing up for long term, but as a one year stop gap while they figure out what they have in Ackley, Pineda, and Smoak, he can keep the position from being a black hole. Odds are he won’t be worth his arbitration raise next winter (he’s making $4.75 million in 2011), but the team would be able to non-tender him and walk away at that point.
Kouzmanoff for Figgins? Yes, please.
Update: Buster Olney adds on Twitter that this could be a three team deal involving the Blue Jays. Just speculating, but I’d guess that Kouzmanoff would end up in Toronto (which would allow them to keep Jose Bautista in the outfield), with the M’s getting something from the Blue Jays in return. The Jays do have pitching depth, so perhaps the Mariners could end up with another arm for the back-end of the rotation. This would leave a hole at third base, but they could sign a guy like Willy Aybar to share time with Matt Mangini as a low-cost option that would allow them to give another young kid a look. We’ll have to see what plays out.
M’s Hold Press Confererences, Adam Kennedy Arrested
The Mariners held a press briefing with a bunch of different updates today. The highlights:
The Mariners get three extra home games this year, as the road series in Florida is being moved to Seattle due to the Marlins home stadium being used for a U2 concert. The games will be played under NL rules, and the Mariners will be the “road” team, so no DH, and the M’s will hit first. Should be a fun change-up for three days. How lousy are the Marlins, though, that they would skip a home interleague series because they’d rather rent out the park for a music event?
Erik Bedard will throw bullpen sessions before spring training starts. They’re optimistic about his timeframe.
David Aardsma may be ready by the second week of the season.
Shawn Kelley may be ready by June 1st.
Dustin Ackley has gained eight or nine pounds, as Pedro Grifol is convinced that he’ll be a major league second baseman.
Oh, and while it wasn’t on the agenda, Adam Kennedy was arrested for suspicion of a DUI last night. The M’s won’t comment, but you can’t imagine they’re all that happy with him.
The FanGraphs Library
We tend to use a lot of numbers around here, and a bunch of them are not numbers you generally see during television broadcasts, so I know that this place can be a little intimidating to new readers. We’ve never done a great job at giving people a place to start from the beginning, and I know there’s a learning curve to reading the site.
Well, over at FanGraphs, we’re trying to fix that problem. Yesterday, we introduced The FanGraphs Library, which is a pretty extensive resource of explanations for every metric you’ll see talked about here, as well as a lot of the concepts that we believe in. It includes some pretty nifty tools, including charts that show the spread of performance in each metric (what’s good, what’s bad, what’s normal), and link out to explanations of how the metrics were derived if you’re into reading those kinds of pieces.
Hopefully, the FanGraphs Library will make the learning curve for blogs like this one a little less steep. Steve Slowinski is going to be blogging about saber education over at the Library going forward, so if you have any questions about this kind of stuff, he’ll be more than happy to help you.
Jack Says Milton’s Coming Back
“Milton is going to get a achance to come in and compete for a job,” Zduriencik told (Dave Mahler of KJR). “When we acquired him, we felt he had a chance to be a middle-of-the order hitter. Obviously some things fell apart for him last year and he had one thing happen this winter. We’re hoping he comes in and competes for a job.”
Well, that’s interesting, surprising, and kind of confusing. This could all change, of course, depending on how things play in March, but the Mariners don’t appear to be planning on cutting Bradley loose right now.
M’s Sign Jody Gerut And Nate Robertson
The M’s have been shopping from the bargain bin this winter, but they’ve hit on a couple of nice no cost pickups today, bringing in outfielder Jody Gerut and left-handed pitcher Nate Robertson.
Let’s start with Robertson, since he’s probably the more likely of the two to make the team out of spring training. I’ve been a fan of his for a while (here’s an article I wrote about him as a buy-low opportunity two years ago), and while he hasn’t exactly made me look like a genius, I still think there’s potential there. He was a pretty good starter for the Tigers from 2004-2006, running ground ball rates near 50% and K/BB ratios of around 2.00. Pitchers who can do both of those thing simultaneously are tough to find, especially from the left side.
He started heading down hill in 2007, as his walks went up and his ground balls went down. 2008 was a total disaster from a results perspective (6.35 ERA), and was the season that cost him his spot in the starting rotation, but his underlying performance was still okay. Rather than bouncing back in 2009, he ended up in the bullpen, had surgery on his elbow, and ended up only throwing 40 innings in what was essentially a lost year. He got shipped to the Marlins last spring, and while he wasn’t good, he was a semi-useful innings sponge.
He also has a pretty similar skillset to Chris Capuano, who we talked about a few weeks ago as a possibility for the M’s. Like Capuano, Robertson’s fatal flaw is giving up home runs to right-handed batters. 141 of the 160 home runs that Robertson has allowed have been to righties. For his career, he’s at 0.60 HR/9 vs LHB, and 1.46 HR/9 vs RHB. As we’ve noted many times, righties don’t hit for a lot of power in Safeco, so the park could mask Robertson’s big flaw. He’s unlikely to be an ace, but the team could do worse than to give him 150 innings at the back of the rotation and let Safeco make him look like a pretty capable #5 starter. If one of the young kids pushes him out of the rotation, he’s got the skillset to be a tough left-handed reliever, though he’s been resistant to the role in the past. He’s starting to run out of options, though, and the team might be able to convince him that he could extend his career in the big leagues by becoming a solid lefty relief option if it comes to that.
Gerut’s a little bit different, in that his decline from being a good player is easily explained – he tore his knee to shreds in 2004 and essentially lost three years out of the prime of his career. ACL surgery cost him most of 2005, then recovering from more knee surgeries cost him 2006 and 2007 as well, but he reappeared on the scene out of nowhere in 2008 to post a +3 win season in just 100 games. He hit .296/.351/.494 while playing half his games in Petco, no easy feat. He hasn’t been able to repeat that success, though, and at 33 years old, he probably won’t ever do that again. That said, he’s a pretty decent defensive outfielder with some pop in his bat from the left side, and if healthy, he could provide a little bit of offense as a part-time player.
The problem with Gerut is fit on the roster. As a left-handed hitting outfielder, he’s not really an option to share time with Michael Saunders, as the team needs a right-handed stick for the role that will likely be vacated by Milton Bradley. Gerut falls into the same kind of problem that Ryan Langerhans has run into, in that he’s useful but that he duplicates some of what Saunders offers, only while lacking the athleticism and potential of the younger version. Unless the team decides Saunders needs more time in Tacoma, there’s probably not a spot on the roster for Gerut right away. But, if he agrees to go to Tacoma and stays healthy, he could be a solid fill-in later in the year if needed.
It’s nice to see the organization making nifty little moves like this. With pickups like Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy, the team had given themselves depth and options at the middle infield spots, and now they’ve created competition for the outfield and left-handed pitcher spots as well. Since both new guys are in on minor league contracts, the team is shouldering no risk, and can bring them to Peoria and see what they have. They might not be the kinds of guys that create headlines, but they’re interesting depth guys to have around. The M’s are a little bit better today than they were yesterday.