M’s Sign Jody Gerut And Nate Robertson
The M’s have been shopping from the bargain bin this winter, but they’ve hit on a couple of nice no cost pickups today, bringing in outfielder Jody Gerut and left-handed pitcher Nate Robertson.
Let’s start with Robertson, since he’s probably the more likely of the two to make the team out of spring training. I’ve been a fan of his for a while (here’s an article I wrote about him as a buy-low opportunity two years ago), and while he hasn’t exactly made me look like a genius, I still think there’s potential there. He was a pretty good starter for the Tigers from 2004-2006, running ground ball rates near 50% and K/BB ratios of around 2.00. Pitchers who can do both of those thing simultaneously are tough to find, especially from the left side.
He started heading down hill in 2007, as his walks went up and his ground balls went down. 2008 was a total disaster from a results perspective (6.35 ERA), and was the season that cost him his spot in the starting rotation, but his underlying performance was still okay. Rather than bouncing back in 2009, he ended up in the bullpen, had surgery on his elbow, and ended up only throwing 40 innings in what was essentially a lost year. He got shipped to the Marlins last spring, and while he wasn’t good, he was a semi-useful innings sponge.
He also has a pretty similar skillset to Chris Capuano, who we talked about a few weeks ago as a possibility for the M’s. Like Capuano, Robertson’s fatal flaw is giving up home runs to right-handed batters. 141 of the 160 home runs that Robertson has allowed have been to righties. For his career, he’s at 0.60 HR/9 vs LHB, and 1.46 HR/9 vs RHB. As we’ve noted many times, righties don’t hit for a lot of power in Safeco, so the park could mask Robertson’s big flaw. He’s unlikely to be an ace, but the team could do worse than to give him 150 innings at the back of the rotation and let Safeco make him look like a pretty capable #5 starter. If one of the young kids pushes him out of the rotation, he’s got the skillset to be a tough left-handed reliever, though he’s been resistant to the role in the past. He’s starting to run out of options, though, and the team might be able to convince him that he could extend his career in the big leagues by becoming a solid lefty relief option if it comes to that.
Gerut’s a little bit different, in that his decline from being a good player is easily explained – he tore his knee to shreds in 2004 and essentially lost three years out of the prime of his career. ACL surgery cost him most of 2005, then recovering from more knee surgeries cost him 2006 and 2007 as well, but he reappeared on the scene out of nowhere in 2008 to post a +3 win season in just 100 games. He hit .296/.351/.494 while playing half his games in Petco, no easy feat. He hasn’t been able to repeat that success, though, and at 33 years old, he probably won’t ever do that again. That said, he’s a pretty decent defensive outfielder with some pop in his bat from the left side, and if healthy, he could provide a little bit of offense as a part-time player.
The problem with Gerut is fit on the roster. As a left-handed hitting outfielder, he’s not really an option to share time with Michael Saunders, as the team needs a right-handed stick for the role that will likely be vacated by Milton Bradley. Gerut falls into the same kind of problem that Ryan Langerhans has run into, in that he’s useful but that he duplicates some of what Saunders offers, only while lacking the athleticism and potential of the younger version. Unless the team decides Saunders needs more time in Tacoma, there’s probably not a spot on the roster for Gerut right away. But, if he agrees to go to Tacoma and stays healthy, he could be a solid fill-in later in the year if needed.
It’s nice to see the organization making nifty little moves like this. With pickups like Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy, the team had given themselves depth and options at the middle infield spots, and now they’ve created competition for the outfield and left-handed pitcher spots as well. Since both new guys are in on minor league contracts, the team is shouldering no risk, and can bring them to Peoria and see what they have. They might not be the kinds of guys that create headlines, but they’re interesting depth guys to have around. The M’s are a little bit better today than they were yesterday.
Bradley, Lueke, And Precedents
Obviously, most of the talk today surrounding the M’s is about Milton Bradley’s arrest. This can’t be how the M’s were hoping to kick off the new year, and the fact that it comes two weeks before FanFest has to be annoying to the organization – after all, they’re now faced with standing in front of a bunch of fans before his court date (February 8th), which leaves them in the uncomfortable position of having to say something without actually saying anything.
Beyond that, the Mariners have to figure out what they’re going to do with Milton now. At this point, I think most people expect the team to take some action that removes him from the team, whether that be suspension, a move to the restricted list (the same procedure they pursued last year when he took his leave of absence), or just an outright release. Given all of the questions about how Bradley would fit in with Eric Wedge at the helm, how he’d respond to a reduced role that left him as a part-time player, and his ability to serve as the team’s fourth outfielder given his injury history, this seems like a straw-that-breaks-the-camel’s-back, even if the charges end up being dropped. Pretty much every other organization that has ever employed Milton Bradley has reached a point where they determined his baggage wasn’t worth it anymore, and this is probably that point for the M’s.
If they just want to wash their hands of the situation and be done with it, they can just release him. It’d be the no-hassle way of dealing with the issue, as no one would really question the organization if that’s the path they decided to pursue. They’d have to eat the $12 million he’s owed for 2011, but it’s a sunk cost anyway, and it’s not like it’s all that hard to find a right-handed hitting outfielder who can get 250 plate appearances and avoid causing drama for everyone around him.
The other options would be a bit trickier, as they’d likely involve the team seeking some sort of reimbursement for the wages they’re expected to pay Bradley this year. Larry Stone has a great piece on the history of teams trying to void contracts with players over off-the-field legal problems. In general, it hasn’t gone very well, as the player’s association has been able to hold teams at bay when they attempt to declare that a player has forfeited his right to be paid. It is possible that there is language in Bradley’s contract that would allow the team to pursue this course in his specific situation, but there’s no way for us to know if that’s the case or not. There’s also another factor to consider for the M’s, and that’s Josh Lueke.
The team took a pretty big PR hit last year with how the Lueke situation was handled after he was acquired from Texas in the Cliff Lee trade, but since then, the team has operated in a way that suggests that they expect Lueke to remain a member of the organization going forward. Lueke’s situation is different in many ways than Bradley’s, especially in that his offense took place while he was not a member of the organization, but he spent time in jail for his offense and the Mariners are still willing to employ him (as of now, anyway). Given their decision to acquire Lueke (and subsequently retain him throughout the off-season), it would then be hard to convince a judge that Bradley simply being arrested for making a threat would constitute behavior that would prevent them from continuing to employ him.
Likewise, it will appear somewhat hypocritical of the Mariners if they cite this incident as a primary cause for his release, but continue to employ Lueke. On one hand, the organization certainly wants to be seen as taking a firm stance against abuse against woman, but making different choices as to Lueke’s and Bradley’s futures with the organization presents some problems. They have opted to note that Lueke deserves a second chance, but Bradley has no noted history of abuse towards women that I can find Bradley has never been charged with any domestic abuse issues (though there was a 2005 incident where police were called to his home that I missed in my original research) and this charge – while serious – is not as extreme as what Lueke served jail time for. You can point to Bradley’s past problems getting along with coaches, management, teammates, and umpires as examples of why he’s run out of second chances, but all of those problems have been with men. If the organization chooses to release him on the grounds of violating a policy of abuse towards women, it will be hard to simultaneously justify Lueke’s continued employment. If one deserves a second chance, then it will be argued that so does the other.
In short, there is no easy clean fix here, unless the team decides to just take this as an opportunity to enforce a retroactive no-tolerance policy and release them both. I doubt that’s the path they’ll pursue, however. My guess is that we end up seeing Bradley placed on the restricted list, remain a member of the organization, and the team simply choose not to pursue an attempt to recoup his salary. He’d still technically be a member of the organization, but he wouldn’t be part of the team anymore. This is essentially what the Cubs did to Bradley at the end of the 2009 season, when they just sent him home to finish the year.
No matter what they do, however, they’ll be criticized from some angle.
Milton Bradley Arrested, Charged With Felony
King5 is reporting that Milton Bradley has been arrested in Los Angeles in relation to a felony on making criminal threats. We don’t have much more information beyond that, but to be honest, I’m not sure it matters much what he’s charged with in terms of his future with the M’s. Given his history with Eric Wedge, his struggles the last few years, and the team’s desire to give some young kids a chance, his tenure here wasn’t likely to last very long anyway.
Unless he is completely exonerated, I’d imagine this will be all the excuse the M’s needed to sever ties with him. Let’s not rush to judgment on whether Bradley is guilty or not, but given that he was already on pretty thin ice, this could be enough for the M’s to just throw in the towel on the Milton Bradley experiment.
M’s Avoid Arbitration With Everyone
The Mariners have announced that they have reached agreements with David Aardsma, Brandon League, and Jason Vargas, avoiding arbitration with all three. We’ll get numbers soon, but expect something like $4 million for Aardsma, $2 million for League, and $2 million for Vargas.
Jeff Francis Signs With The Royals
We were pretty sure the M’s were out on Jeff Francis once David Aardsma became untradeable, but now it’s official, as Francis landed in Kansas City today for a whopping $2 million base with incentives that could push the total to $4 million. This is exactly the kind of deal I was hoping the Mariners could offer him, but it seems like they’re just out of money, so instead of getting a pretty decent left-handed strike-thrower for the back-end of the rotation, they had to watch him take a job with the Royals instead.
With the M’s failing to come up with marginal amounts of money for the likes of Francis and Capuano, it’s probably safe to assume they’re out on anyone who will get a seven figure deal. They may still add another pitcher or a right-handed bat who could handle some left field if they end up jettisoning Milton Bradley, but the guys they’ll be targeting will probably have to accept non-guaranteed minor league deals. Unless Jack Z has a trick up his sleeve, the M’s are probably done doing anything significant this winter.
Ms sign Adam Kennedy to a Minor League Deal
And all of a sudden, the Mariners have a middle infield logjam.
Multiple sources are tweeting that the Ms have signed 2B Adam Kennedy to a minor league deal. You may remember Kennedy as the Angels’ Howie Kendrick placeholder of choice from the early part of last decade. What you probably don’t remember offhand is that from 2001-2005, Kennedy averaged 2.8 WAR per season, holding his own at the plate while providing excellent 2B defense.
Now 35 (literally now – his birthday is today), Kennedy is coming off a pretty abysmal season for the Nationals. But then again, he is also only two seasons removed from posting a .337 wOBA for the A’s in 2009. As Dave is fond of reminding us, we really have no idea how to tell when an older player is done, and when he’s merely having an isolated bad year. If Kennedy still has something in the tank this could be a nice little zero-risk pickup. If he doesn’t, or if Ackley forces the Ms’ hand early in the 2011 season, the team can cut him loose. No harm, no foul.
In news that probably only I care about, this also makes Luis Rodriguez’s chances of making the team out of ST that much more remote.
Figgins Back To Third
We all saw this coming, but Jack Z tells Kirby Arnold that Chone Figgins will be moving back to third base for 2011. The second base experiment was an unmitigated disaster, and with Dustin Ackley on the way, there was no point having Figgins take another run at it. With Figgins back at third, Brendan Ryan is clear to begin the season as the starting second baseman. If Ackley forces a promotion at some point in the summer, then they have the flexibility to have Ryan take over at shortstop if need be.
It’s only news in the sense that it the rumor is now confirmed, but it’s nice to see that the M’s are making the logical move here.
Edgar’s HOF Support Drops
This is expected, as we’d seen enough early ballots to get a feel for where this was headed, but today’s HOF voting announcement reveals that Edgar Martinez has seen his proportion of the vote drop in his second year of eligibility. After getting 36 percent of the vote last year, he fell to 33 percent this year. We have always suspected that Edgar’s only possible path to Cooperstown was the long slow road, and this simply confirms that suspicion. Realistically, with the glut of power hitters coming on the ballots over the next few years, Edgar doesn’t have much of a chance for the next decade or so.
It’s a bit sad, but it’s also reality. For the next ten years, we’re going to spend one day in early January trying to figure out what the direction of Martinez’s vote total means for his possible election in the following year. Prepare for one very long haul.
Bard Comes Back on NRI
The January Baseball Doldrums brought news that Josh Bard re-signed with the Mariners today, providing competition for Adam Moore at the back-up catcher position, or at least more competition than Chris Gimenez is likely to provide. Note also how much Bard’s comments seem to mirror those that the front office is likely to make, right down to the “at the end of the day” in the third sentence. Also that we apparently have the green light to call our new manager “Wedgie,” though I would not encourage it.
Bard only appeared in thirty-nine games with the Mariners last year, which seems off until you realize that Adam Moore and Rob Johnson caught roughly the same number of innings last year, and we also saw Eliezer Alfonzo for a while. That he was the best hitting Mariners catcher last season is equal parts enlightening and appalling. In Tacoma, however, the best hitter was Rob Johnson followed by Moore, so at least that’s moderately encouraging. Bard may see more of Tacoma this season depending on how things shake out during spring training.
Olivo Signs With M’s, Capuano Does Not
The Mariners officially announced the Miguel Olivo signing today, only about a month after it was agreed to. Timeliness is apparently not next to Godliness. To make room on the 40 man roster, Anthony Varvaro was designated for assignment. They’ll trade him to someone who will take a shot on his velocity and hope he figures out how to throw strikes. He’s not a big loss.
In actual news, you can forget the Chris Capuano speculation, as he’s agreed to join the Mets on a one year deal. It’s not Safeco, but Citi Field is another pretty good pitcher’s park, and there’s no DH in the NL, so he still did okay for himself. The M’s will have to look elsewhere for a cheap back-end starting pitcher.